nep-bec New Economics Papers
on Business Economics
Issue of 2012‒07‒01
27 papers chosen by
Christian Calmes
Universite du Quebec en Outaouais

  1. Credence Goods, Consumer Misinformation, and Quality By Soham Baksi; Pinaki Bose; Di Xiang
  2. Slow recoveries: A structural interpretation By Jordi Galí; Frank Smets; Rafael Wouters
  3. High Wage Workers Match with High Wage Firms: Clear Evidence of the Effects of Limited Mobility Bias By Andrews, Martyn J.; Gill, Leonard; Schank, Thorsten; Upward, Richard
  4. Dynamic Olley-Pakes Productivity Decomposition with Entry and Exit By Marc J. Melitz; Sašo Polanec
  5. Measuring Managerial Skill in the Mutual Fund Industry By Jonathan B. Berk; Jules H. van Binsbergen
  6. Worker Matching and Firm Value By Moen, Espen R.; Yashiv, Eran
  7. The Rise and Fall of Unions in the U.S. By Emin Dinlersoz; Jeremy Greenwood
  8. A Producer Theory with Business Risks By Seong-Hoon Kim; Seongman Moon
  9. Nonlinear Pricing as Exclusionary Conduct By Philippe Choné; Laurent Linnemer
  10. More Hours, More Jobs? The Employment Effects of Longer Working Hours By Andrews, Martyn J.; Gerner, Hans-Dieter; Schank, Thorsten; Upward, Richard
  11. Do institutions and culture matter for business cycles? By Sumru Altug; Fabio Canova
  12. A CB (corporate bond) pricing probabilities and recovery rates model for deriving default probabilities and recovery rates By Takeaki Kariya
  13. Human Capital, Matching and Job Satisfaction By Tim Barmby; Alex Bryson; Barbara Eberth
  14. Tacit collusion in a non-repeated price competition game with a soft capacity constraint By Marie-Laure Cabon-Dhersin; Nicolas Drouhin
  15. Value Creation and Firm Integration: First Empirical Evidence for the Software Industry By Pussep, Anton; Harnisch, Stefan; Buxmann, Peter
  16. The Hold-up Problem Under Common Agency By Antonio Nicita; Simone Sepe
  17. Materials Prices and Productivity By Enghin Atalay
  18. Hold-up and Externality: the Firm as a Nexus of Incomplete Rights? By Antonio Nicita; Matteo Rizzolli
  19. Total Factor Productivity Growth in Local Economic Partnership Regions in Britain, 1997-2008 By Richard Harris; John Moffat
  20. Is the Erosion Thesis Overblown? Evidence from the Orientation of Uncovered Employers By Addison, John T.; Teixeira, Paulino; Evers, Katalin; Bellmann, Lutz
  21. Robust Comparative Statics in Large Dynamic Economies By Daron Acemoglu; Martin Kaae Jensen
  22. Money Doctors By Nicola Gennaioli; Andrei Shleifer; Robert W. Vishny
  23. Change, growth and learning By Agulles, Remei; Prats, Maria Julia
  24. The Software Value Chain: Methods for Construction and Their Application By Pussep, Anton; Schief, Markus; Widjaja, Thomas
  26. Financial frictions and the role of investment specific technology shocks in the business cycle By Gunes Kamber; Christie Smith; Christoph Thoenissen
  27. La biotechnologie est-elle vraiment en perte de vitesse au Québec et si oui, quelles en sont les raisons? By Catherine Beaudry; Joël Levasseur

  1. By: Soham Baksi; Pinaki Bose; Di Xiang
    Abstract: For certain products, consumers' misinformation about quality is more endemic at intermediate levels of the quality spectrum rather than at the top or the bottom levels of quality. Using an oligopoly model of vertical product differentiation with three quality levels - green, natural, and brown - we examine the consequences of consumers' overestimation of the quality of the natural (i.e. intermediate quality) product. There are three firms in the market, with each type of firm producing the corresponding type of the product. The firms choose the quality level of their product before choosing its price (Bertrand case) or quantity (Cournot case). Irrespective of the nature of second stage competition, we find that quality overestimation by consumers increases profit of the natural firm, and motivates it to raise its product’s quality. In response, the green firm improves its quality even further, but ends up with lower profit. Overall, average quality of the vertically differentiated product improves, which raises consumer surplus. Social welfare increases when firms compete in prices but falls when they compete in quantities.
    JEL: L13 L15 M30
    Date: 2012–06
  2. By: Jordi Galí; Frank Smets; Rafael Wouters
    Abstract: An analysis of the performance of GDP, employment and other labor market variables following the troughs in postwar U.S. business cycles points to much slower recoveries in the three most recent episodes, but does not reveal any significant change over time in the relation between GDP and employment. This leads us to characterize the last three episodes as slow recoveries, as opposed to jobless recoveries. We use the estimated New Keynesian model in Galí-Smets- Wouters (2011) to provide a structural interpretation for the slower recoveries since the early nineties.
    Keywords: jobless recoveries, U.S. business cycle, estimated DSGE models, Okun's law.
    JEL: E32
    Date: 2012–05
  3. By: Andrews, Martyn J. (University of Manchester); Gill, Leonard (University of Manchester); Schank, Thorsten (University of Mainz); Upward, Richard (University of Nottingham)
    Abstract: Positive assortative matching implies that high productivity workers and firms match together. However, there is almost no evidence of a positive correlation between the worker and firm contributions in two-way fixed-effects wage equations. This could be the result of a bias caused by standard estimation error. Using German social security records we show that the effect of this bias is substantial in samples with limited inter-firm movement. The correlation between worker and firm contributions to wage equations is unambiguously positive.
    Keywords: linked employer-employee panel data, fixed effects, limited mobility bias
    JEL: J20 J30 C23
    Date: 2012–06
  4. By: Marc J. Melitz; Sašo Polanec
    Abstract: In this paper, we propose an extension of the productivity decomposition method developed by Olley & Pakes (1996). This extension provides an accounting for the contributions of both firm entry and exit to aggregate productivity changes. It breaks down the contribution of surviving firms into a component accounting for changes in the firm-level distribution of productivity and another accounting for market share reallocations among those firms -- following the same methodology as the one proposed by Olley & Pakes (1996). We argue that the other decompositions that break-down aggregate productivity changes into these same four components introduce some biases in the measurement of the contributions of entry and exit. We apply our proposed decomposition to the large measured increases in Slovenian manufacturing during the 1995-2000 period -- and contrast our results with those other decompositions. We find that, over a 5 year period, the measurement bias associated with entry and exit is substantial, accounting for up to 10 percentage points of aggregate productivity growth. We also find that market share reallocations among surviving firms played a much more important role in driving aggregate productivity changes.
    JEL: C10 O47
    Date: 2012–06
  5. By: Jonathan B. Berk; Jules H. van Binsbergen
    Abstract: Using the dollar-value a mutual fund manager adds as the measure of skill, we find that not only does skill exist (the average mutual fund manager adds about $2 million per year), but this skill is persistent, as far out as 10 years. We further document that investors recognize this skill and reward it by investing more capital with skilled managers. Higher skilled managers are paid more and there is a strong positive correlation between current managerial compensation and future performance.
    JEL: G11 G2 G20 G23
    Date: 2012–06
  6. By: Moen, Espen R. (Norwegian Business School (BI)); Yashiv, Eran (Tel Aviv University)
    Abstract: This paper studies the value of firms and their hiring and firing decisions in an environment where the productivity of the workers depends on how well they match with their co-workers and the firm acts as a coordinating device. Match quality derives from a production technology whereby workers are randomly located on the Salop circle, and depends negatively on the distance between the workers. It is shown that a worker's contribution in a given firm changes over time in a nontrivial way as co-workers are replaced with new workers. The paper derives optimal hiring and replacement policies, including an optimal stopping rule, and characterizes the resulting equilibrium in terms of employment, wages and distribution of firm values. The paper stresses the role of horizontal differences in worker productivity, as opposed to vertical, assortative matching issues. Simulations of the model show the dynamics of worker replacement policy, the resulting firm value and age distributions, and the connections between them.
    Keywords: firm value, complementarity, worker value, Salop circle, hiring, firing, match quality, optimal stopping
    JEL: E23 J62 J63
    Date: 2012–06
  7. By: Emin Dinlersoz; Jeremy Greenwood
    Abstract: Union membership displayed an inverted U-shaped pattern over the 20th century, while the distribution of income sketched a U. A model of unions is developed to analyze these phenomena. There is a distribution of firms in the economy. Firms hire capital, plus skilled and unskilled labor. Unionization is a costly process. A union decides how many firms to organize and its members’ wage rate. Simulation of the developed model establishes that skilled-biased technological change, which affects the productivity of skilled labor relative to unskilled labor, can potentially explain the above facts. Statistical analysis suggests that skill-biased technological change is an important factor in de-unionization.
    Keywords: CES,economic,research,micro,data,microdata, Computers, Distribution of Income, Flexible Manufacturing, Mass Production, Numerically Controlled Machines, Panel-Data Regression Analysis, Relative Price of New Equipment, Skill-Biased Technological Change, Simulation Analysis, Union Coverage, Union Membership, Deunionization
    JEL: J51 J24 L23 L11 L16 O14 O33
    Date: 2012–06
  8. By: Seong-Hoon Kim; Seongman Moon
    Abstract: In this paper, we consider a producer who faces uninsurable business risks due to incomplete spanning of asset markets over stochastic goods market outcomes, and examine how the presence of the uninsurable business risks affects the producer’s optimal pricing and production behaviours. Three key (inter-related) results we find are: (1) optimal prices in goods markets comprise ‘markup’ to the extent of market power and ‘premium’ by shadow price of the risks; (2) price inertia as we observe in data can be explained by a joint work of risk neutralization motive and marginal cost equalization condition; (3) the relative responsiveness of risk neutralization motive and marginal cost equalization at optimum is central to the cyclical variation of markups, providing a consistent explanation for procyclical and countercyclical movements. By these results, the proposed theory of producer leaves important implications both micro and macro, and both empirical and theoretical.
    Keywords: Uninsurable Business Risks, Markup, Risk Premium, Hedge and Offer, Price Inertia, Stochastic Dominance, Conditional Sales Ratio.
    JEL: D21 D42 D81
    Date: 2012–01
  9. By: Philippe Choné (Crest-LEI); Laurent Linnemer
    Abstract: We study the exclusionary properties of nonlinear pricing by dominant firms in a static environment. Optimal price schedules are nonlinear when the rivals’ sensitivity to competitive pressure varies with the “contestable share” of the market. When buyers can dispose of unconsumed units at no cost, and thus might purchase units they do not need, dominant firms are prevented from placing too much pressure on rivals, which limits the extent of inefficient exclusion. When disposal costs are large and sensitivity to competitive pressure is not monotonic in the contestable share, optimal price schedules may be locally decreasing and highly nonlinear
    Keywords: Inefficient exclusion, buyer opportunism, disposal costs, quantity rebates, incomplete information
    JEL: L12 L42 D82 D86
    Date: 2012–06
  10. By: Andrews, Martyn J. (University of Manchester); Gerner, Hans-Dieter (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Schank, Thorsten (University of Mainz); Upward, Richard (University of Nottingham)
    Abstract: Increases in standard hours have been a contentious policy issue in Germany. Whilst this might directly lead to a substitution of workers by hours, there may also be a positive employment effect due to reduced costs. Moreover, the response of firms differs between firms which offer overtime and those which do not. For a panel of German plants (2001-2006), we analyse the effect of increased standard hours on employment. Using difference-in-difference methods we find that, consistent with theory, overtime plants showed a significant positive employment response, whilst for standard-time plants there is no difference at all between plants which increased standard hours and those which did not.
    Keywords: working time, employment, plant-level data, difference-in-differences
    JEL: C23 J23 J81
    Date: 2012–06
  11. By: Sumru Altug; Fabio Canova
    Abstract: We examine the relationship between institutions, culture and cyclical fluctuations for a sample of 45 European, Middle Eastern and North African countries. Better governance is associated with shorter and less severe contractions and milder expansions. Certain cultural traits, such as lack of acceptance of power distance and individualism, are also linked business cycle features. Business cycle synchronization is tightly related to similarities in the institutional environment. Mediterranean countries conform to these general tendencies.
    Keywords: Business cycles, institutions, culture, Mediterranean countries, synchronization.
    JEL: C32 E32
    Date: 2012–04
  12. By: Takeaki Kariya
    Abstract: In this paper we formulate a corporate bond (CB) pricing model for deriving the term structure of default probabilities (TSDP) and the recovery rate (RR) for each pair of industry factor and credit rating grade, and these derived TSDP and RR are regarded as what investors imply in forming CB prices in the market at each time. A unique feature of this formulation is that the model allows each firm to run several business lines corresponding to some industry categories, which is typical in reality. In fact, treating all the cross-sectional CB prices simultaneously under a credit correlation structure at each time makes it possible to sort out the overlapping business lines of the firms which issued CBs and to extract the TSDPs for each pair of individual industry factor and rating grade together with the RRs. The result is applied to a valuation of CDS (credit default swap) and a loan portfolio management in banking business.
    Date: 2012–06
  13. By: Tim Barmby; Alex Bryson; Barbara Eberth
    Abstract: Using a model of wage determination developed by Stevens (2003) we offer an explanation of why tenure has a negative effect when entered in job satisfaction equations. If job satisfaction measures match quality, then the explanation follows from a model of the labour market in which workers accumulate specific human capital at the firm they work and the way in which this accumulation affects the way workers react to outside job opportunities.
    Keywords: Job satisfaction, job match quality, human capital, job tenure
    JEL: J24 J28
    Date: 2012–06
  14. By: Marie-Laure Cabon-Dhersin (CREAM - Centre de Recherche en Economie Appliquée à la Mondialisation - Université de Rouen : EA4702); Nicolas Drouhin (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon Sorbonne)
    Abstract: This paper analyses price competition in the case of two firms operating under constant returns to scale with more than one production factor. Factors are chosen sequentially in a two-stage game generating a soft capacity constraint and implying a convex short term cost function in the second stage of the game. We show that tacit collusion is the only predictable result of the whole game i.e. the unique payoff-dominant pure strategy Nash equilibrium. Technically, this paper bridges the capacity constraint literature on price competition and that of the convex cost function.
    Keywords: price competition; tacit collusion; convex cost; Bertrand Paradox; capacity constraint
    Date: 2012–06–12
  15. By: Pussep, Anton; Harnisch, Stefan; Buxmann, Peter
    Abstract: The value added created by a firm is a widely used figure. Major elements of a firm’s strategy and business model deal with how the firm creates value and brings it to the customer. This paper focuses on a particular measure which has been broadly applied to measure the degree of vertical integration: value added to sales (VA/S). To our best knowledge, this measure hasn’t been applied in software business research. We hence outline its application in other fields by conducting a broad and structured literature review. First empirical insights are gained by analyzing the VA/S development for 44,171 software firms in the period 2002-2009. These results indicate an increasing degree of vertical integration in the software industry. While practitioners can use the results as a benchmark for their own firms, researchers are provided with a comprehensive literature review, first empirical results on a large sample and avenues for research.
    Keywords: software industry, vertical integration, value added to sales, degree of vertical integration
    Date: 2012–06–18
  16. By: Antonio Nicita; Simone Sepe
    Abstract: Many real world transactions occur in a common agency environment in which an agent interacts with several principals having competing interests. The hold-up literature, however, has so far neglected to investigate common agency transactions. In this paper, we consider the hold-up problem that arises in a context where there are a monopolistic seller and multiple buyers on the one side and all the parties on the other are required to make specific self-investments. Our contribution is twofold. First, we show that absent initial contracts (i.e., preliminary agreements) between the parties, total efficiency increases when the buyers act competitively using implicit contractual coordination, i.e., contractual menus. Second, we show that introducing initial simple contracts allows parties to reach the first best only under cooperative common agency. Absent this machinery, competition among the principals emerges as a more efficient governance structure for common agency in incomplete transactions.
    Keywords: incomplete contracts, common agency, mechanism design
    JEL: K12 L22 J41 C70
    Date: 2012–05
  17. By: Enghin Atalay
    Abstract: There is substantial within-industry variation, even within industries that use and produce homogeneous inputs and outputs, in the prices that plants pay for their material inputs. I explore, using plant-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the consequences and sources of this variation in materials prices. For a sample of industries with relatively homogeneous products, the standard deviation of plant-level productivities would be 7% lower if all plants faced the same materials prices. Moreover, plant-level materials prices are both persistent across time and predictive of exit. The contribution of net entry to aggregate productivity growth is smaller for productivity measures that strip out di¤erences in materials prices. After documenting these patterns, I discuss three potential sources of materials price variation: geography, di¤erences in suppliers. marginal costs, and suppliers. price discriminatory behavior. Together, these variables account for 13% of the dispersion of materials prices. Finally, I demonstrate that plants.marginal costs are correlated with the marginal costs of their intermediate input suppliers.
    Keywords: CES,economic,research,micro,data,microdata
    Date: 2012–06
  18. By: Antonio Nicita; Matteo Rizzolli
    Abstract: The Coasean theory of the firm (Coase, 1937) has flourished with the theory of incomplete contracts. Transaction costs in the form of enforcement costs have been deemed to be the main determinants of the decision to ‘make’ versus ‘buy’. Surprisingly, this stream of literature has almost neglected that transaction costs may also generate incomplete property rights (Coase, 1960). As firm’s activities entail both contractual and property rights, these two domains interfere each other on the decision to carry out a transaction within the firm. When property rights are incomplete, potential externalities may increase the cost of using the price mechanism to procure the assets needed in a given transaction. The resulting 'Coasean firm' would not only centralize incomplete contracts under a unified governance system, but it will also aggregate incomplete property rights under a unified ownership structure.
    Keywords: incomplete property, Coase, Transaction Cost Economics, theory of the firm
    JEL: K12 L22 J41 C70
    Date: 2012–05
  19. By: Richard Harris; John Moffat
    Abstract: This paper decomposes aggregate TFP growth in Britain for 1997-2008 to show the contribution of different LEPs and the role played by manufacturing and services and UK- and foreign-owned plants within these LEPs. These contributions are further decomposed to show the role of productivity growth in continuing plants vis-à-vis reallocations in output shares. The results show that the largest LEPs, in population terms, with higher levels of job density, greater reliance on manufacturing and skilled worker occupations, higher proportions of workers with NVQ4+ qualifications, and lower turnover of businesses, achieved the highest TFP growth. This strong performance is mostly the result of reallocations of output shares towards high productivity continuing plants and the opening of high productivity plants.
    Keywords: Productivity decomposition, regional productivity growth
    JEL: C23 D24 R12
    Date: 2012–06
  20. By: Addison, John T. (University of South Carolina); Teixeira, Paulino (University of Coimbra); Evers, Katalin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Bellmann, Lutz (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg)
    Abstract: It is sometimes claimed that the coverage of collective bargaining in Germany is considerably understated because of orientation, a process whereby uncovered firms profess to shadow the wages set under sectoral bargaining. Yet importantly, at a time when collective bargaining proper has been in retreat, little is known of corresponding trends in the frequency of indirect coverage, still less of the degree to which wages are aligned in practice. Using nationally representative data for 2000-2010, this paper charts the extent of orientation in the uncovered sector, and tracks average wages across bargaining regimes as well as changes in wages from switches in regime. It is reported that orientation is growing with the decline in sectoral bargaining and that orienting firms do pay higher wages than their counterparts in the collective bargaining free zone. Yet in neither case – frequency nor remuneration – is the degree of 'compensation' recorded other than partial.
    Keywords: orientation, erosion of collective bargaining, uncovered sector, sectoral bargaining, wages, regime shifts
    JEL: J31 J5
    Date: 2012–06
  21. By: Daron Acemoglu; Martin Kaae Jensen
    Abstract: We consider infinite horizon economies populated by a continuum of agents who are subject to idiosyncratic shocks. This framework contains models of saving and capital accumulation with incomplete markets in the spirit of works by Bewley, Aiyagari, and Huggett, and models of entry, exit and industry dynamics in the spirit of Hopenhayn's work as special cases. Robust and easy-to-apply comparative statics results are established with respect to exogenous parameters as well as various kinds of changes in the Markov processes governing the law of motion of the idiosyncratic shocks. These results complement the existing literature which uses simulations and numerical analysis to study this class of models and are illustrated using a number of examples.
    JEL: C61 D90 E21
    Date: 2012–06
  22. By: Nicola Gennaioli; Andrei Shleifer; Robert W. Vishny
    Abstract: We present a new model of money management, in which investors delegate portfolio management to professionals based not only on performance, but also on trust. Trust in the manager reduces an investor’s perception of the riskiness of a given investment, and allows managers to charge higher fees to investors who trust them more. Money managers compete for investor funds by setting their fees, but because of trust the fees do not fall to costs. In the model, 1) managers consistently underperform the market net of fees but investors still prefer to delegate money management to taking risk on their own, 2) fees involve sharing of expected returns between managers and investors, with higher fees in riskier products, 3) managers pander to investors when investors exhibit biases in their beliefs, and do not correct misperceptions, and 4) despite long run benefits from better performance, the profits from pandering to trusting investors discourage managers from pursuing contrarian strategies relative to the case with no trust. We show how trust-mediated money management renders arbitrage less effective, and may help destabilize financial markets.
    JEL: G11 G23
    Date: 2012–06
  23. By: Agulles, Remei (IESE Business School); Prats, Maria Julia (IESE Business School)
    Abstract: Companies desiring to keep and improve their competitive advantage must be flexible enough to undergo change when needed. Meaningful change requires the ability to learn from their own as well as from others' experience. But learning is not easy, and there are many factors that may prevent it to occur. This paper explores existing literature and provides a classification of the different obstacles that may appear in the way. At the same time, without the pretension of being exhaustive, it suggests some solution paths.
    Keywords: organizational learning; strategic management; corporate culture; organizational change; knowledge management; innovation;
    Date: 2012–05–03
  24. By: Pussep, Anton; Schief, Markus; Widjaja, Thomas
    Abstract: The value chain is a widely used framework for industry and firm analysis. To our knowledge, the conceptualisation of value chains is so far guided by “soft” criteria like intuition of experts rather than clearly stated methods with regard to the value chain boundaries and the granularity as well as the separation of activities. Therefore, we propose a combination of well-known methods – such as the Delphi study approach and clustering algorithms – to (1) ensure a holistic view of the industry at hand by covering all underlying economic concepts, (2) ensure the uniqueness of activities, and (3) provide a hierarchy of activities that allows deriving value chains at different levels of granularity. Since software is a good with specific economic properties, practitioners and researchers require a value chain framework reflecting the industry specifics. This paper contributes by proposing methods for value chain construction and applying these methods to the software industry. The resulting universal and hierarchical software value chain can serve as a sound foundation for further studies of the software industry. Furthermore, practitioners can tailor the proposed methods to their needs and apply the software value chain to their firms.
    Keywords: value chain, granularity, software industry
    Date: 2012–06–10
  25. By: Manuel Garcia-Santana (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros); Roberto Ramos (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)
    Abstract: We present a detailed description of cross-country differences in the size distribution of establishments as measured by Enterprise Surveys of the World Bank (2006-2010). We find that poorer countries tend to have smaller establishments, and hence a higher proportion of employment is allocated to such plants. We also find that, conditional on the level of per capita GDP, there is still a wide variation in the size distribution of establishments. We show that financial frictions and other costs imposed on the business environment can account for a sizeable part of such variation. Additionally, we exploit the richness of the data-set to document cross-sector differences in the size distribution of establishments. We show that establishments in manufacturing and construction tend to be larger on average than in retail and other services.
    Keywords: Plant size distribution, enterprise environment.
    JEL: L11 L53 O47
    Date: 2012–05
  26. By: Gunes Kamber; Christie Smith; Christoph Thoenissen
    Abstract: Various papers have identified shocks to investment as major drivers of output, investment, hours, and interest rates. These investment shocks have been linked to financial frictions because financial markets are instrumental in transforming consumption goods into installed capital. However, the importance of investment shocks is not robust once we explicitly account for a simple financial friction. We estimate a medium scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with collateral constraints. When entrepreneurs are subject to binding collateral constraints, a reduction in the value of installed capital reduces the value of collateral and thus the amount an entrepreneur can borrow. As a result, aggregate consumption no longer co-moves with GDP and the response of investment to a positive investment shock is attenuated. In the model with collateral constraints, the role of risk premium shocks in the business cycle increases markedly, whereas investment shocks have a much diminished role.
    Keywords: DSGE model, financial frictions, risk premium shocks, investment specific technology shocks, Bayesian estimation
    JEL: C11 E22 E32 E44
    Date: 2012–06–08
  27. By: Catherine Beaudry; Joël Levasseur
    Abstract: <P>Ce rapport dresse un portrait comparatif des entreprises qui développent des biotechnologies au Québec et au Canada entre 1999 et 2005. Outre l’évolution des caractéristiques, le rapport examine entre autres les taux de survie et de croissance de ces entreprises jusqu’en 2009. L’étude couvre ainsi deux périodes de crise, soit celle du resserrement du crédit de 2001 à la suite de l’éclatement de la bulle technologique, et la crise financière de 2007-2008. Au-delà de l’impact des crises, en majeure partie financières, l’étude vise à comprendre les raisons de la mort et de la baisse de la performance des entreprises dans un domaine de haute technologie important pour le développement du Québec. Le domaine des biotechnologies est relativement jeune, ce qui se traduit par une méconnaissance du fonctionnement de ce dernier. De surcroît, le modèle prépondérant dans ce domaine de pointe basé sur la science nécessite une contribution non négligeable de l’université, de la science et des technologies qui y sont développées, afin d’évoluer et de croître. La collaboration doit donc jouer un rôle important afin de faciliter le transfert de connaissance entre les différents partenaires. En outre, de par la complexité de la connaissance impliquée et l’importance des validations nécessaires étant donné son impact sur le vivant, la biotechnologie évolue dans une classe à part où les concepts répandus ailleurs dans l’économie méritent d’être étudiés en de plus amples détails. Par ailleurs, les leçons apprises de cette étude peuvent contribuer à mettre en place les bons outils pour d’autres domaines de pointe, par exemple les nanotechnologies, en plein essor au Québec. La contribution de ce rapport consiste donc à identifier les facteurs de survie et de croissance des entreprises oeuvrant dans le domaine des biotechnologies de façon à recommander des modifications et améliorations au support à ces entreprises afin d’en améliorer la performance. <p> Les données utilisées proviennent des quatre enquêtes de Statistique Canada sur le développement et l’utilisation de la biotechnologie de 1999, 2001, 2003 et 2005, qui ont été liées entre elles et jumelées à certaines données du Registre des entreprises de façon à pouvoir mesurer les taux de survie et de croissance de ces entreprises. La base de données quasi-longitudinale ainsi obtenue permet d’étudier l’évolution des entreprises de biotechnologie sur une décennie. Chacune des enquêtes a obtenu un taux de réponse d’environ 70 %, nous sommes donc confiants de refléter un portrait juste de ce domaine de l’économie. <p> De façon générale, il n’existe pas de différences marquées entre le domaine des biotechnologies au Québec et celui du reste du Canada (Tableau I). Alors que les entreprises du Québec étaient en avance sur un ensemble d’aspects tels la collaboration, le nombre de brevets et le nombre de produits en 1999, les différences s’amenuisent au fil du temps. Ceci est possiblement causé par le changement et l’évolution du tissu industriel du Québec. En effet, la baisse de l’âge des entreprises et de leur taille en termes de nombre d’employés suggère l’émergence de nouvelles firmes au Québec. <p> Parmi les baisses importantes au Québec relatées, la plus importante est sans doute celle du nombre de produits et procédés qui varient de 74 à 17 en moyenne entre 1999 et 2005. Ce sont particulièrement les produits en production et sur le marché qui ont connu une plus forte baisse au Québec. Cette diminution est également, en majeure partie, attribuable aux petites entreprises des secteurs de la bioinformatique de la biotechnologie reliée à l’aquaculture et aux ressources naturelles, et n’est donc pas un phénomène généralisé dans les autres secteurs de la biotechnologie. En santé humaine au Québec par exemple, le nombre de produits et procédés a augmenté au cours de la période de 1999 à 2005. Ceci confirme aussi une certaine mouvance du domaine des biotechnologies vers la santé humaine et l’agriculture au Québec. En 1999, la santé humaine, l’agriculture et la transformation des produits alimentaires représentaient respectivement 42 % et 17 % du nombre de produits et procédés et en 2005 cette proportion a augmenté à 58 % et 28 % respectivement. Cette augmentation s’est faite au détriment des autres secteurs. Les secteurs de l’environnement et de la bioinformatique, de la biotechnologie reliée à l’aquaculture et des ressources naturelles, généraient respectivement 22 % et 20 % des produits et procédés en 1999 comparativement à 9 % et 5 % respectivement en 2005...
    Date: 2012–06–01

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