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on Business Economics |
| By: | Oriana Bandiera; Luigi Guiso; Andrea Prat; Raffaella Sadun |
| Abstract: | We exploit a unique combination of administrative sources and survey data to study the match between firms and managers. The data includes manager characteristics, such as risk aversion and talent; firm characteristics, such as ownership; detailed measures of managerial practices relative to incentives, dismissals and promotions; and measurable outcomes, for the firm and for the manager. A parsimonious model of matching and incentive provision generates an array of implications that can be tested with our data. Our contribution is twofold. We disentangle the role of risk-aversion and talent in determining how firms select and motivate managers. In particular, risk-averse managers are matched with firms that offer low-powered contracts. We also show that empirical findings linking governance, incentives, and performance that are typically observed in isolation, can instead be interpreted within a simple unified matching framework. |
| Keywords: | personnel economics, hiring policy, management, performance related pay, performance incentives |
| JEL: | J24 L2 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1144&r=bec |
| By: | Oriana Bandiera; Luigi Guiso; Andrea Prat; Raffaella Sadun |
| Abstract: | We develop a methodology to collect and analyze data on CEOs' time use. The idea - sketched out in a simple theoretical set-up - is that CEO time is a scarce resource and its allocation can help us identify the firm's priorities as well as the presence of governance issues. We follow 94 CEOs of top-600 Italian firms over a pre-specified week and record the time devoted each day to different work activities. We focus on the distinction between time spent with insiders (employees of the firm) and outsiders (people not employed by the firm). Individual CEOs differ systematically in how much time they spend at work and in how much time they devote to insiders vs. outsiders. We analyze the correlation between time use, managerial effort, quality of governance and firm performance, and interpret the empirical findings within two versions of our model, one with effective and one with imperfect corporate governance. The patterns we observe are consistent with the hypothesis that time spent with outsiders is on average less beneficial to the firm and more beneficial to the CEO and that the CEO spends more time with outsiders when governance is poor. |
| Keywords: | CEOs, corporate governance, time use |
| JEL: | D2 G3 G34 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1145&r=bec |
| By: | Hengjie Ai; Rui Li |
| Abstract: | We present a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms. Owners of firms delegate investment decisions to managers, whose consumption and investment decisions are private information. We solve the optimal contracts and characterize the implied general equilibrium. Our calibrated model has implications on the cross-sectional distribution and time-series dynamics of firms' investment, managers' compensation, and dividend payout policies. Risk sharing requires that managers' equity shares decrease with firm sizes. That, in turn, implies it is harder to prevent private benefit in larger firms, where managers have a lower equity stake under the optimal contract. Consequently, small firms invest more, pay less dividends, and grow faster than large firms. Despite the heterogeneity in firms' decision rules and the failure of Gibrat's law, we show that the size distribution of firms in our model resembles a power law distribution with a slope coefficient about 1.06, as in the data. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedacq:2012-01&r=bec |
| By: | Viral Acharya (New York University, NBER, CEPR and ECGI); Marco Pagano (Università di Napoli Federico II, CSEF, EIEF, CEPR and ECGI); Paolo Volpin (London Business School and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We present a model where managers are risk-averse, and firms compete for scarce managerial talent (“alpha”). When managers are not mobile across firms, firms provide efficient compensation, which allows for learning about managerial talent and insures low-quality managers. When instead managers can move across firms, firms cannot provide co-insurance among their employees. In anticipation, risk-averse managers may churn across firms before their true quality is learnt. The result is excessive risk-taking with pay for short-term performance and build up of long-term risks. We conclude with the analysis of policies to address the resulting inefficiency in firms’ compensation. |
| Keywords: | short-termism, executive compensation, tail risk, managerial turnover. |
| JEL: | D62 G32 G38 J33 |
| Date: | 2012–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:312&r=bec |
| By: | Almut Balleer; Thijs van Rens |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades, technological progress in the United States has been biased towards skilled labor. What does this imply for business cycles? We construct a quarterly skill premium from the CPS and use it to identify skill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run restrictions. Hours fall in response to skill-biased technology shocks, indicating that at least part of the technology-induced fall in total hours is due to a compositional shift in labor demand. Skill-biased technology shocks have no effect on the relative price of investment, suggesting that capital and skill are not complementary in aggregate production. |
| Keywords: | skill-biased technology, skill premium, VAR, long-run restrictions, capital-skill complementarity, business cycle |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2011–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:560&r=bec |
| By: | Houthoofd, Noël (Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel (HUB)); Hendrickx, Jef (Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel (HUB)) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the paper is to identify the sources of variation in firm performance. This is one of the cornerstones of strategy research, i.e. the relative importance of industry and firm level effects on firm performance. Multilevel analysis is well suited to analyze variance in performance when the data are hierarchically structured (industry segments consist of firms, firms operate within the context of industry segments). The Belgian industry studied is a service industry that consists of about 25 electrical wholesalers. Data were collected from 20 firms during the period 1998-2003 from responses to a questionnaire sent to all the firms in the market. The sample in the data set covers more than 95 percent of the market (in sales), as the missing firms were just fringe competitors. The results show that firm effects explain most of the variance in four performance variables. That bears out the importance of each firm having its own specific, idiosyncratic resources and competences. The explanatory power of firm effects varies by about 30 to 40 percent while the intra-industry effect explains around 10 percent of the variance. Even though firm effects are dominant, intra-industry effects explain a significant portion of the variance in firm level performance. The firm effect is smaller than in previous studies. The firm effect varies across the performance measures: firm effects are higher for returns on assets than for profit margins. The industry segment effect (or intra-industry effect) is more independent of the dependent variable. The industry segment effect is in line with previous studies on the strategic group effect. Top managers should carefully choose and monitor the intra-industry domain they are in. |
| Keywords: | firm effect vs. industry effect, electrical wholesale sector, performance differences, multilevel analysis |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hub:wpecon:201217&r=bec |
| By: | Anne Busch; Elke Holst |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the gender pay gap in private-sector management positions based on German panel data and using fixed-effects models. It deals with the effect of occupational sex segregation on wages, and the extent to which wage penalties for managers in predominantly female occupations are moderated by firm size. Drawing on economic and organizational approaches and the devaluation of women's work, we find wage penalties for female occupations in management only in large firms. This indicates a pronounced devaluation of female occupations, which might be due to the longer existence, stronger formalization, or more established "old-boy networks" of large firms. |
| Keywords: | Gender pay gap, managerial positions, occupational sex segregation, gendered organization, firm size |
| JEL: | B54 J16 J24 J31 J71 L2 M51 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1206&r=bec |
| By: | Matthieu Crozet; Federico Trionfetti |
| Abstract: | Guided by empirical evidence we consider firms heterogeneity in terms of factor intensity. We show that Heckscher-Ohlin comparative advantage and firm-level relative factor-intensity interact to jointly explain the observed differences in relative sales. Firms whose relative factor-intensity matches up with the comparative advantage of the country have lower relative marginal costs and larger relative sales than firms who do not. Our empirical analysis, conducted using data for a large panel of European firms, supports these predictions. Our findings also provide an original firm-level verification of the Heckscher-Ohlin model based on the effect of comparative advantage on firms relative sales. |
| Keywords: | Factor intensity, Firms heterogeneity, Test of trade theories. |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_019&r=bec |
| By: | Tsubota, Kenmei |
| Abstract: | A typical implicit assumption on monopolistic competition models for trade and economic geography is that firms can produce and sell only at one place. This paper fallows endogenous determination of the number of plants in a new economic geography model and examine the stable outcomes of organization choice between single-plant and multi-plant in two regions. We explicitly consider the firms' trade-off between larger economies of scale under single plant configuration and the saving in interregional transport costs under multi-plant configuration. We show that organization change arises under decreasing transportation costs and observe several organization configurations under a generalized cost function. |
| Keywords: | Industrial management, Business enterprises, Multi-plant firms, Transaction costs, New economic geography |
| JEL: | D21 F12 L23 R12 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper346&r=bec |
| By: | Nicolas Antheaume (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Université de Nantes : EA4272); Paulette Robic (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Université de Nantes : EA4272) |
| Abstract: | In this article we highlight the role played by widows in French Family businesses. We take a historical point of view in order to highlight the significance of our topic. We show the role of French family law in enabling widows to become entrepreneurs. Then we relate the life of the wife of a company owner, in a French family business created at the beginning of the 20th century. We show why and how a spouse becomes an entrepreneur when her husband dies. We demonstrate what key roles she plays in maintaining the business within the realm of the family. |
| Keywords: | invisibility ; visibility ; widow entrepreneur ; wife ; family business |
| Date: | 2012–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00694367&r=bec |
| By: | Sumon Bhaumik; Ralitza Dimova; Subal C. Kumbhakar; Kai Sun |
| Abstract: | Using a novel modeling approach, and cross-country firm level data for the textiles industry, we examine the impact of institutional quality on firm performance. Our methodology allows us to estimate the marginal impact of institutional quality on productivity of each firm. Our results bring into question conventional wisdom about the desirable characteristics of market institutions, which is based on empirical evidence about the impact of institutional quality on the average firm. We demonstrate, for example, that once both the direct impact of a change in institutional quality on total factor productivity and the indirect impact through changes in efficiency of use of factor inputs are taken into account, an increase in labor market rigidity may have a positive impact on firm output, at least for some firms. We also demonstrate that there are significant intra-country variations in the marginal impact of institutional quality, such that the characteristics of “winners” and “losers” will have to be taken into account before policy is introduced to change institutional quality in any direction. |
| Keywords: | Institutional quality; Firm performance; Marginal effect; Textiles industry |
| JEL: | C14 D24 K31 O43 |
| Date: | 2012–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wdi:papers:2011-1029&r=bec |
| By: | Doriana Ruffino |
| Abstract: | This paper studies two frequently observed portfolio behaviors that are seemingly inconsistent with rational portfolio choice. The first is the tendency of workers and entrepreneurs to hold their company's stock. The second is the propensity of workers to limit their equity holdings through time. The explanation offered here for both of these behaviors lies in the option to switch jobs when one?s company does poorly. This is equivalent to holding put options on one's own company stock and call options on the other company's stock, where both options must be exercised at the same time. Given these initial undiversified implicit financial holdings, workers need to allocate a relatively large share of their regular financial assets to their own company's stock and a relatively small share to the stock of their alternative employment simply to restore overall portfolio balance. I find that, under certain conditions, workers optimally hold almost 40% of their financial wealth in their company's stock. |
| Keywords: | Life-Cycle Modeling; Industry(firm)-specific Risk; Job-switching Options; Portfolio Choice; Familiarity-based; Investments; Businessman Risk |
| JEL: | D91 G11 G12 J24 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:252&r=bec |
| By: | Traci L. Mach; John D. Wolken |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of credit availability on small firm survivability over the period 2004 to 2008 for non-publicly traded small enterprises. Using data from the 2003 Survey of Small Business Finances, we develop failure prediction models for a sample of small firms that were confirmed to have been in business as of December 2003, with particular attention to the impact of credit constraints. We find that credit constrained firms were significantly more likely to go out of business than non constrained firms. Moreover, credit constraint and credit access variables appear to be among the most important factors predicting which small U.S. firms went out of business during the 2004-2008 period even though an extensive set of firm, owner, and market characteristics were also included as explanatory factors. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2012-10&r=bec |
| By: | Silvia Giacomelli; Carlo Menon |
| Abstract: | We investigate the causal relationship between judicial efficiency and firm size across Italian municipalities, exploiting spatial discontinuities in tribunals' jurisdiction for identification. Results show that halving the length of civil proceedings, average firm size would increase by around 8-12%, everything else equal. Results are robust to a number of different specifications, based on two different databases. |
| Keywords: | Justice efficiency, Firm size, Spatial discontinuity approach, Italy |
| JEL: | K4 L11 O18 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sercdp:0108&r=bec |
| By: | Chrysovalantou Liou; Emmanuel Petrakis |
| Abstract: | We study vertical integration incorporating the fact that it creates the possibility of knowledge disclosure. We consider a setting where, through integrating, an upstream monopolist learns its downstream partner’s innovation, and can disclose it to its downstream rival. We show that a vertically integrated firm chooses to fully disclose its knowledge to its downstream rival. Knowledge disclosure intensifies downstream competition but, at the same time, expands the downstream market size. We also show that, due to knowledge disclosure, vertical integration increases firms’ innovation incentives, consumer and total welfare, and decreases, instead of raises, the rival’s cost. |
| Keywords: | Vertical integration, R&D investments, Market floreclosure, Knowledge disclosure |
| JEL: | L13 L22 L42 |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:we1213&r=bec |
| By: | Michael Boehm; Martin Watzinger |
| Abstract: | It is well documented that graduates enter different occupations in recessions than in booms. In this article, we examine the impact of this reallocation for long-term productivity and output across sectors. We develop a model in which talent flows to stable sectors in recessions and to cyclical sectors in booms. We find evidence for the predicted change in productivity caused by the business cycle in a setting where output can be readily measured: economists starting or graduating from their PhD in a recession are significantly more productive over the long term than economists starting or graduating in a boom. |
| Keywords: | Talent allocation, sectoral productivity, business cycle, roy model, PhDeconomists |
| JEL: | J24 E32 I23 J22 J23 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1143&r=bec |
| By: | Osmundsen, Petter (UiS); Rosendahl, Knut Einar (Statistics Norway); Skjerpen, Terje (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | We examine the largest cost component in offshore development projects, drilling rates, which have been high over the last years. To our knowledge, rig rates have not been analysed empirically before in the economic literature. By econometric analysis we examine the effects on Gulf of Mexico rig rates of gas and oil prices, rig capacity utilization, contract length and lead time, and rig specific characteristics. Having access to a unique data set containing contract information, we are able to estimate how contract parameters crucial to the relative bargaining power between rig owners and oil and gas companies affect rig rates. Our econometric framework is a single equation random effects model in which the systematic part of the equation is non-linear in the parameters. The non-linearity is due to representing the effects of gas and oil prices by a CES price aggregate. Such a model belongs to the class of non-linear mixed models which has been heavily utilized within the biological sciences. |
| Keywords: | Rig rates; Oil and gas drilling; Panel data |
| JEL: | C18 C23 Q40 |
| Date: | 2012–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:stavef:2012_009&r=bec |
| By: | Marcelle Chauvet; Zeynep Senyuz; Emre Yoldas |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an extensive analysis of the predictive ability of financial volatility measures for economic activity. We construct monthly measures of aggregated and industry-level stock volatility, and bond market volatility from daily returns. We model log financial volatility as composed of a long-run component that is common across all series, and a short-run component. If volatility has components, volatility proxies are characterized by large measurement error, which veils analysis of their fundamental information and relationship with the economy. We find that there are substantial gains from using the long term component of the volatility measures for linearly projecting future economic activity, as well as for forecasting business cycle turning points. When we allow for asymmetry in the long-run volatility component, we find that it provides early signals of upcoming recessions. In a real-time out-of-sample analysis of the last recession, we find that these signals are concomitant with the first signs of distress in the financial markets due to problems in the housing sector around mid-2007 and the implied chronology is consistent with the crisis timeline. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2012-09&r=bec |
| By: | Peter Martey Addo (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon Sorbonne, Università Ca' Foscari of Venice - Department of Economics); Monica Billio (Università Ca' Foscari of Venice - Department of Economics); Dominique Guegan (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris) |
| Abstract: | We provide a signal modality analysis to characterize and detect nonlinearity schemes in the US Industrial Production Index time series. The analysis is achieved by using the recently proposed 'delay vector variance ' (DVV) method, which examines local predictability of a signal in the phase space to detect the presence of determinism and nonlinearity in a time series. Optimal embedding parameters used in the DVV analysis are obtained via a differential entropy based method using wavelet-based surrogates. A complex Morlet wavelet is employed to detect and characterize the US business cycle. A comprehensive analysis of the feasibility of this approach is provided. Our results coincide with the business cycles peaks and troughs dates published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). |
| Keywords: | Nonparametric methods, STAR models, business cycles. |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00694420&r=bec |
| By: | Cosh, A.; Zhang, J. |
| Abstract: | Whilst the variety of search activities promotes innovation, there is a central tension between a firm's potential benefits from wide and diverse search activities and its ability to reap these potential benefits. In this paper, we argue that the potential and realised benefits from a firm' search activities are influenced not only by its resources and capabilities, but also by the nature of innovation activities at sector level. Drawing upon a statistical analysis of a large scale survey conducted in the US, we examine the impact of a firm's external search strategy along two dimensions (search intensity and direction) on its innovative performance. Our findings suggest that manufacturing firms tend to benefit from wide and diversified search activities whereas knowledge intensive business services (KIBS) firms tend to benefit from narrow and specialised search activities. Furthermore, when taking account of firm size and absorptive capacity, a more nuanced picture emerges. Implications and contributions to the innovation search literature are discussed. |
| Keywords: | variety of search, open innovation, SME, manufacturing, Knowledge intensive business services, US survey |
| JEL: | L25 O14 O32 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp431&r=bec |
| By: | Pedro Mazeda Gil; Fernanda Figueiredo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the firm size distribution arising from an endogenous growth model of quality ladders with expanding variety. The probability distribution function of a given cohort of firms is a Poisson distribution that converges asymptotically to a normal of log size. However, due to firm entry propelled by horizontal R&D, the total distribution – i.e., when the entire population of firms is considered – is a mixture of overlapping Poisson distributions which is systematically right skewed and exhibits a fatter upper tail than the normal distribution of log size. Our theoretical results qualitatively match the empirical evidence found both for the cohort and the total distribution, and which has been presented as a challenge for theory to explain. Moreover, by obtaining a total distribution with a gradually falling variance over a long time span, the model is able to address complementary empirical evidence that points to a total distribution subtly evolving over time. |
| Keywords: | Firm size distribution; Skewness; Heavy tails; Endogenous growth; Horizontal and vertical R&D |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_065&r=bec |
| By: | Simon Gilchrist; Jae W. Sim; Egon Zakrajsek |
| Abstract: | Financial market frictions distort the allocation of resources among productive units—all else equal, firms whose financing choices are affected by financial frictions face higher borrowing costs than firms with ready access to capital markets. As a result, input choices may differ systematically across firms in ways that are unrelated to their productive efficiency. We propose a simple accounting framework that allows us to assess the empirical magnitude of the loss in aggregate resources due to such misallocation. To a second-order approximation, our accounting framework requires only information on the dispersion in borrowing costs across firms. We measure firm-specific borrowing costs for a subset of U.S. manufacturing firms directly from the interest rate spreads on their outstanding publicly-traded debt. Given the observed variation in borrowing costs, our approximation method implies a relatively modest loss in efficiency due to resource misallocation—on the order of 1 to 2 percent of measured total factor productivity (TFP). According to our accounting framework, the correlation between firm size and borrowing costs is irrelevant under the assumption that financial distortions and firm-level efficiency are jointly log-normally distributed. To take into account the effect of covariation between firm size and borrowing costs, we also consider a more general framework that dispenses with the assumption of log-normality and which yields somewhat higher estimates of the resource losses—about 3.5 percent of measured TFP. Counterfactual experiments indicate that dispersion in borrowing costs must be an order of magnitude higher than that observed in the U.S. financial data, in order for misallocation—arising from financial distortion—to account for a significant fraction of measured TFP differentials across countries. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2012-08&r=bec |
| By: | Michael T. Owyang; Jeremy M. Piger; Howard J. Wall |
| Abstract: | A large literature studies the information contained in national-level economic indicators, such as financial and aggregate economic activity variables, for forecasting U.S. business cycle phases (expansions and recessions.) In this paper, we investigate whether there is additional information regarding business cycle phases contained in subnational measures of economic activity. Using a probit model to predict the NBER expansion and recession classification, we assess the forecasting benefits of adding state-level employment growth to a common list of national-level predictors. As state-level data adds a large number of variables to the model, we employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure to construct forecasts. Based on a variety of forecast evaluation metrics, we find that including state-level employment growth substantially improves short-horizon forecasts of the business cycle phase. The gains in forecast accuracy are concentrated during months of national recession. Posterior inclusion probabilities indicate substantial uncertainty regarding which states belong in the model, highlighting the importance of the Bayesian model averaging approach.> |
| Keywords: | Recessions ; Business cycles ; Economic conditions |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2012-013&r=bec |
| By: | Lulu Gu; W. Robert Reed (University of Canterbury) |
| Abstract: | It is well-known that government plays an important role in the business activities of Chinese firms. Less certain is the effect this influence has on the wealth of those firms’ shareholders. We contribute to the literature by analyzing stock market reactions to announcements by Chinese firms of overseas mergers and acquisitions (OMAs). OMAs are of particular interest because there can exist a conflict between the interests of the public sector in acquiring overseas assets, and the interests of the private sector in maximizing shareholder wealth. Our main data set consists of 213 observations of 157 OMA events that occurred between 1994-2009, using share market returns from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and U.S. markets. The aggregation of share price data across multiple markets, and the listing of firms in multiple exchanges, raise econometric issues for the standard event-study methodology. To address these, we use a new, feasible generalized least squares (GLS) procedure developed by Gu (2011). Based upon an analysis using both aggregated and disaggregated samples, and of daily and cumulative abnormal returns, we find consistent evidence that (i) Chinese OMAs have not lowered the wealth of shareholders of Chinese acquiring firms, and (ii) shareholders of Chinese acquiring firms have not fared worse under Go Global than before Go Global. |
| Keywords: | Overseas Mergers and Acquisitions; Event study; Go Global |
| JEL: | G34 F21 O25 O53 |
| Date: | 2012–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:12/07&r=bec |