|
on Banking |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This article explores the potential effect of central bank digital currency activity on bank loan loss provisions. We show that the effect of CBDC activity on bank loan loss provisions depends on the nature of CBDC activity and whether CBDC activity is regulated or non-regulated. As more people use CBDCs, it could lead to shortfall in bank deposits and increase funding and liquidity risk and generate a pass-through to credit risk which would require banks to increase loan loss provisions in anticipation of loan loss arising from CBDC activity. CBDC regulation may dampen this effect. |
| Keywords: | digital innovation, loan loss provision, central bank digital currency, bank |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118797&r=ban |
| By: | Selva Bahar Baziki (Bloomberg); María J. Nieto (Banco de España); Rima Turk-Ariss (Fondo Monetario Internacional) |
| Abstract: | We extend the literature on the sovereign-bank nexus by examining the composition effects of sovereign portfolios on banks’ risk profile, unlike previous studies which generally analyzed the determinants of banks’ sovereign portfolios or the size effects of these portfolios. We also differ from previous studies with respect to the measures of risk considered and by covering a sample period that goes well beyond the global financial crisis (2009-2018). Drawing on granular data from the European Banking Authority, we find that banks are riskier when their portfolio includes a higher proportion of securities issued by higher-risk sovereigns or when they are themselves domiciled in a country with high sovereign credit risk. Nevertheless, we do not find conclusive evidence that larger holdings of government securities of the country where the bank is incorporated increase bank risk ex-post. However, the risk profile is higher for banks that received government capital injections than for banks that did not receive capital support in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Banks that received government capital injections are less risky when their portfolio includes a higher proportion of securities issued by higher-risk sovereigns. These results may indicate that regulatory arbitrage motives at these banks are particularly important. |
| Keywords: | banks, sovereign crisis, EU |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G28 G38 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2325&r=ban |
| By: | Bardoscia, Marco (Bank of England); Ka-Kay Pang, Raymond (London School of Economics and Political Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Ring-fencing is a reform of the UK banking system that requires large banks to separate their retail services from other activities of the group, such as investment banking. We consider a network of bilateral exposures between banks in which financial contagion can spread because banks incorporate the creditworthiness of their counterparties into the valuation of their assets. Ring-fencing acts as an exogenous shock that impacts the creditworthiness of banks through leverage, depending on how assets are allocated between ring-fenced and non-ring-fenced entities. We find conditions on this allocation that leads to safer ring-fenced entities and less safe non-ring-fenced entities when compared with their groups prior to the implementation of ring-fencing. We also show that ring-fencing can make both the equity of individual banking groups and the aggregate equity of the banking system decrease. When this happens, ring-fenced entities are safer than their groups prior to ring-fencing. |
| Keywords: | Ring-fencing; financial networks; systemic risk |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2023–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1046&r=ban |
| By: | Carlo Altavilla (European Central Bank, CSEF and CEPR.); Marco Pagano (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF, EIEF, and CEPR.); Miguel Boucinha (European Central Bank); Andrea Polo (Luiss University, EIEF, CEPR and ECGI.) |
| Abstract: | Combining euro-area credit register and carbon emission data, we provide evidence of a climate risk-taking channel in banks’ lending policies. Banks charge higher interest rates to firms featuring greater carbon emissions, and lower rates to firms committing to lower emissions, controlling for their probability of default. Both effects are larger for banks committed to decarbonization. Consistently with the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, tighter policy induces banks to increase both credit risk premia and carbon emission premia, and reduce lending to high emission firms more than to low emission ones. While restrictive monetary policy increases the cost of credit and reduces lending to all firms, its contractionary effect is milder for firms with low emissions and those that commit to decarbonization. |
| Keywords: | climate risk, carbon emissions, interest rate, lending, monetary policy. |
| JEL: | E52 G21 Q52 Q53 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–10–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:687&r=ban |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This article explores the benefits and issues surrounding the digital Rupee, also known as the eRupee or the central bank digital currency in India. The study found that Indian people who were interested in ‘cryptocurrency’ information were also interested in ‘central bank digital currency’ information. The study also showed that the introduction of CBDC has potential benefits such as reduced dependency on cash, higher seigniorage due to lower transaction costs and reduced settlement risk. However, the India CBDC has associated risks that need to be carefully evaluated against the potential benefits. The introduction of a digital rupee or CBDC in India will require legal and regulatory changes to make the phased CBDC implementation possible. |
| Keywords: | India, CBDC, cryptocurrency, digital rupee, central bank digital currency, blockchain, distributed ledger technology. CBDC design, financial stability, monetary policy. |
| JEL: | E40 E42 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118801&r=ban |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This paper provides insight into the trends to expect in the future of financial inclusion. The author identifies the past and recent changes occurring in the financial inclusion space, and based on these changes, make predictions about what to expect in the future of financial inclusion. The author predicts that, in the future, financial inclusion will witness increased digitalization; increased personalization of formal financial services; the provision of a wide range of formal financial services from a single platform; a shift from account number to mobile number to drive financial inclusion; more women will become financially empowered and financially independent; government will become more directly involved in delivering basic financial services to the poor; and we will witness the emergence of new financial innovations that continuously reduce transaction costs. These future trends will have implications for financial inclusion in Asia, Europe and particularly in Africa where the level of financial inclusion is low. |
| Keywords: | Financial inclusion, digital finance, Fintech, access to finance, central bank digital currency, women. |
| JEL: | G21 I31 I38 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118800&r=ban |
| By: | Aleksander Berentsen; Romina Ruprecht; Hugo van Buggenum |
| Abstract: | Major central banks remunerate reserves at negative rates (NIR). To study thelong-run effects of NIR, we focus on the role of reserves as intertemporal stores of value that are used to settle interbank liabilities. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with commercial banks holding reserves and funding investments with retail deposits. In the long run, NIR distorts investment decisions, lowers welfare, depresses output, and reduces bank profitability. The type of distortion depends on the transmission of NIR to retail deposits. The availability of cash explains the asymmetric effects of policy-rate changes in negative vs positive territory. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Interest rates; Money market; Negative interest rate |
| JEL: | E40 E42 E43 E50 E58 |
| Date: | 2023–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2023-64&r=ban |
| By: | Mahmoud Fatouh (Bank of England and University of Essex); Simone Giansante (University of Palermo); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; NTNU Business School; CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of the leverage ratio capital requirements on the risk-taking behaviour of banks both theoretically and empirically. We use a difference-in-differences (DiD) setup to compare the behaviour of UK banks subject to the leverage ratio requirements (LR banks) to otherwise similar banks (non-LR banks). Conceptually, introducing binding leverage ratio requirements into a regulatory framework with risk-based capital requirements induces banks to re-optimise, shifting from safer to riskier assets (higher asset risk). Yet, this shift would not be one-for-one due to risk weight differences, meaning the shift would be associated with a lower level of leverage (lower insolvency-risk). The interaction of these two changes determines the impact on the aggregate level of risk. Empirically, we show that LR banks did not increase asset risk, and slightly reduced leverage levels, compared to the control group after the introduction of leverage ratio in the UK. As expected, these two changes lead to a lower aggregate level of risk. Our results show that credit default swap spreads on the 5-year subordinated debt of LR banks fell relative to non-LR banks post leverage ratio introduction. |
| Keywords: | Capital regulation; Risk-taking; Leverage ratio; risk-based requirements |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2391&r=ban |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys the literature on economic research in banking. Two streams of empirical research were reviewed. The first stream of empirical research focus on research examining the effect of bank behaviour on economic performance. The second stream of empirical research focus on research on the effect of economic events on bank behaviour and performance. We provide our views about what we have learned from this research. |
| Keywords: | bank performance, economy, banks, economic research, financial institutions |
| JEL: | D00 E00 E50 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118790&r=ban |
| By: | Ruimin Song; TIntian Zhao; Chunhui Zhou |
| Abstract: | This paper takes the development of China's Central bank digital currencies as a perspective, theoretically analyses the impact mechanism of the issuance and circulation of Central bank digital currencies on China's monetary policy and various variables of the money multiplier; at the same time, it selects the quarterly data from 2010 to 2022, and examines the impact of the Central bank digital currencies on the money supply multiplier through the establishment of the VECM model. The research results show that: the issuance of China's Central bank digital currencies will have an impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy and intermediary indicators; and have a certain positive impact on the narrow money multiplier and broad money multiplier. Based on theoretical analyses and empirical tests, this paper proposes that China should explore a more effective monetary policy in the context of Central bank digital currencies in the future on the premise of steadily promoting the development of Central bank digital currencies. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2310.07326&r=ban |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | Central bank digital currency is non-physical money or the digital equivalent of physical money issued by a central bank. Nigeria is the first African country to issue a central bank digital currency, popularly known as the eNaira. This paper highlights the redesign features which the eNaira should possess for it to become very effective in offering payment solution and for macroeconomic stability. The eNaira should have an interest-bearing status, have enhanced security features and should offer zero transaction cost on eNaira transactions. |
| Keywords: | eNaira, central bank digital currency, Nigeria, interest-bearing CBDC, cryptocurrency, blockchain, payment system. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118807&r=ban |
| By: | Dräger, Lena |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys the literature on the role and effects of central bank communication with the general public, particularly regarding the formation of macroeconomic expectations. It starts by giving a brief overview of the recent “communication revolution†in central bank communication. The challenges for central bank communication with the public are outlined by surveying the evidence about low average knowledge on inflation and monetary policy in the population. Next, I evaluate the effects of direct communication, distinguishing between challenges to getting the attention of the public and effects of information on the public’s inflation expectations once attention is gained. Finally, I review the role of the media as transmitter of central bank communication to the public. |
| Keywords: | Central bank communication, consumers, households, literature survey, RCT studies. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 D84 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-713&r=ban |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a survey of central bank digital currency (CBDC) adoption in African countries. Secondary data based on desk research were used to conduct the survey. Data for each African country were collected from publicly available information about each country’s interest and efforts in issuing a central bank digital currency. The survey shows that 70 per cent of African countries have not shown any interest in central bank digital currency. The West African region has the highest number of countries that have not shown any interest in central bank digital currency. Only 4 African countries have a robust payment system infrastructure that can support central bank digital currency. Only 14 African countries have officially indicated interest in central bank digital currency. Only 13 African countries have announced that they are studying central bank digital currency to determine whether they will pursue central bank digital currency as a short-term or long-term goal. Only 4 African countries have reached the pilot test stage of issuing a central bank digital currency. Finally, only one African country has formally issued a central bank digital currency. The policy implication of the findings is that there is low interest in central bank digital currency in the African continent. The low interest in central bank digital currency in African is attributed to the strong preference for cash payments, lack of a robust payment system, low use of digital payments, central banks’ focus on other priorities, fear of failure, lack of government interest in digital currency and concerns about CBDC privacy risk and security threats. These factors can slowdown the level of development and economic inclusion in African countries. There is need to accelerate the issuance of CBDC in African countries. |
| Keywords: | central bank digital currency, CBDC, Africa, blockchain, distributed ledger technology, CBDC survey. |
| JEL: | E50 E51 E52 E58 E59 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118794&r=ban |
| By: | Esther Cáceres (Banco de España); Matías Lamas (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | We measure the reaction of search for income in mutual funds to supervisory-induced dividend restrictions on euro area banks during the COVID-19 pandemic, which operated as an exogenous shock to payouts in this sector. Using granular data on euro area-based mutual funds’ holdings, we show that demand for dividends motivated portfolio decisions in this period and that these decisions had implications for stock returns. Specifically, we document that there were more sales of bank stocks by income-oriented funds after payout restrictions were set in place. These funds were however less inclined to dispose of bank CoCos, an alternative high income-generating asset issued by credit institutions and not subject to supervisory distribution limits. Lastly, we analyze the price impact of these portfolio adjustments, documenting negative abnormal returns in bank stocks more exposed to income-oriented funds after the policy announcement. Our research evidences that search for income is relevant in asset allocation decisions and price formation, and quantifies some of the side effects of dividend restriction policies. |
| Keywords: | search for income, dividends, asset allocation, abnormal returns, mutual funds |
| JEL: | G12 G14 G21 G35 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2332&r=ban |
| By: | Chadha, Jagjit S. |
| Abstract: | Major central banks have been caught in a low interest rate trap for over a decade. The temporary response to the financial crisis of 2008-9 has become something of a regime. The Federal Reserve, for example, attempted to ease quantitative easing in 2013 but this stalled following the “taper tantrum” and commenced a normalisation in the Federal Funds rate from 2015 but during Covid major central banks around the world rapidly returned policy rates to around zero. Low policy rates have been the response to tighter credit conditions, excessive global savings, low levels of investment and fiscal consolidation. But they have also played a role in propelling asset price growth and increasing levels of indebtedness. The accommodative stance in monetary policy, as well as the impetus from previous monetary and fiscal interventions seem like to have stoked inflation to a higher level that might otherwise have been the case following the shock of a war on the European continent. But may also have finally secured a normalisation in policy rates. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; Ukraine war; normalisation; liquidity trap |
| JEL: | E43 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2023–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120381&r=ban |
| By: | Teng, Huei-Wen; Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; Hafner, Christian M.; , e.a. |
| Abstract: | The rapid emergence of digital assets, underpinned by technological advancements such as blockchain, distributed ledger technology (DLT), and smart contracts, has triggered a paradigm shift in the global financial ecosystem. These digital assets, which encompass cryptocurrencies, tokenized securities, stablecoins, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), hold the potential to transform financial markets by enabling new business models, investment opportunities, and efficient transaction mechanisms. However, their accelerated growth also introduces a unique set of challenges and risks, such as fraud, market manipulation, cybersecurity threats, and regulatory uncertainties. This position paper presents an interdisciplinary, empirical analysis of the digital asset landscape, focusing on the definition and classification of digital assets, their evolution from novelty to necessity, and the current state of adoption and regulation. We explore the various types of digital assets, their unique characteristics and use cases, and the technological innovations that have shaped their development, such as the advent of blockchain technology and the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFTs. Moreover, we examine the regulatory landscape surrounding digital assets, highlighting jurisdictional approaches, regulatory classifications, and key developments in the space, as well as the challenges and opportunities that regulators face in devising effective regulatory frameworks. To address the risks associated with the proliferation of digital assets, we outline several mitigation strategies and recommendations for regulators, market participants, and stakeholders based on quantitative analysis and empirical findings. These include balancing innovation and risk, by formulating regulations that safeguard the interests of consumers and investors while fostering an environment conducive to innovation; promoting global regulatory coordination and harmonization, to reduce the potential for regulatory arbitrage and enhance cross- border cooperation; and leveraging regulatory sandboxes and innovation hubs, to support the growth of digital asset businesses and facilitate continuous learning and adaptation. By adopting a forward-looking and flexible approach to regulation and engaging in ongoing dialogue with market participants and stakeholders, regulators can ensure that the benefits of digital assets are realized while mitigating the associated risks. |
| Keywords: | Digital assets ; Blockchain technology ; Regulatory frameworks ; Decentralized finance (DeFi) ; Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) |
| JEL: | G2 E4 K2 L5 O3 O1 |
| Date: | 2023–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiz:louvad:2023030&r=ban |
| By: | R\'edempteur Ntawiratsa; David Niyukuri; Ir\`ene Irakoze; Menus Nkurunziza |
| Abstract: | The term structure of interest rates (yield curve) is a critical facet of financial analytics, impacting various investment and risk management decisions. It is used by the central bank to conduct and monitor its monetary policy. That instrument reflects the anticipation of inflation and the risk by investors. The rates reported on yield curve are the cornerstone of valuation of all assets. To provide such tool for Burundi financial market, we collected the auction reports of treasury securities from the website of the Central Bank of Burundi. Then, we computed the zero-coupon rates, and estimated actuarial rates of return by applying the Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models. This paper conducts a rigorous comparative analysis of these two prominent parametric yield curve models and finds that the Nelson-Siegel model is the optimal choice for modeling the Burundian yield curve. The findings contribute to the body of knowledge on yield curve modeling, enhancing its precision and applicability in financial markets. Furthermore, this research holds implications for investment strategies, risk management, second market pricing, financial decision-making, and the forthcoming establishment of the Burundian stock market. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2310.00321&r=ban |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | We analyse the popularity of the term ‘financial inclusion’ in relation to other development buzzwords. We extract trend data for multiple development buzzwords across countries and cities from 2004 to 2022 and we run a series of empirical analyses. We find that the ‘financial inclusion’ buzzword is popular because the term ‘financial inclusion’ is correlated with other development buzzwords particularly ‘microfinance’, ‘digital finance’, ‘inclusive finance’, ‘financial exclusion’ and ‘fintech’ buzzwords. Financial inclusion buzzword is more popular in developing countries than in developed countries. Financial inclusion buzzword is also popular in major cities in developing countries. We also observe that the financial inclusion buzzword was more popular during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is uni-directional causality between interest in financial inclusion and interest in fintech and inclusive finance, indicating that interest in financial inclusion buzzword causes interest in fintech and inclusive finance buzzword. There is also uni-directional causality between interest in financial exclusion and interest in financial inclusion. Finally, there is a significant correlation between interest in the ‘financial inclusion’, ‘digital finance’, ‘inclusive finance’ and ‘fintech’ buzzwords. |
| Keywords: | buzzword, development, microfinance, financial inclusion, digital finance, fintech, inclusive finance, financial exclusion. |
| JEL: | I31 I38 I39 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118792&r=ban |
| By: | Raphael Auer; Giulio Cornelli; Christian Zimmermann |
| Abstract: | We present a ranking of journals geared toward measuring the policy relevance of research. We compute simple impact factors that count only citations made in central bank publications, such as their working paper series. Whereas this ranking confirms the policy relevance of the major general interest journals in the field of economics, the major finance journals fare less favourably. Journals specialising in monetary economics, international economics and financial intermediation feature highly, but surprisingly not those specialising in econometrics. The ranking is topped by the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, followed by the Quarterly Journal of Economics and the Journal of Monetary Economics, the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, and the Journal of Political Economy. |
| Keywords: | central banks; citations; academic journals; ranking |
| JEL: | A11 E50 E58 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:97224&r=ban |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | Many countries are using digital tools and technologies to increase financial inclusion and improve the well-being of households and communities. There is growing interest in using only digital tools to increase financial inclusion. A term used to describe this is digital-only financial inclusion. This chapter identifies the benefits of digital-only financial inclusion. The benefits include convenience, ensuring digital access to additional financial services, generating useful data to improve customers’ welfare, increased safety, enabling the democratisation of financial services, improving social welfare and economic growth, reaching the poorest in remote areas, and increasing digital literacy. Policymakers and financial sectors agents should be aware of the benefits of digital-only financial inclusion while being mindful of the associated risks. |
| Keywords: | financial inclusion, digital financial inclusion, fintech, digital technology. |
| JEL: | G20 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118796&r=ban |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of central bank digital currency (CBDC) in achieving the United Nations sustainable development goals (SDGs). It was argued that a central bank digital currency can unlock financing for each of the sustainable development goals, provide suitable access to capital and increase payment efficiency. CBDC can also increase the speed of transaction chains and provide greater capital efficiency for investment in sustainable development activities and projects. |
| Keywords: | central bank digital currency, CBDC, sustainable development, sustainable development goals, United Nations, SDGs |
| JEL: | E52 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118806&r=ban |
| By: | Ito, Tadashi; Ryan, Michael; Tanaka, Ayumu (Aoyama Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | Using matched firm-bank-FDI data over the period 1989–2016, this study explores how a firm's financial constraints affect its choice of foreign affiliate ownership structure. Importantly, it tests the hypothesis that parent firms with banks as their largest shareholders hold lower ownership shares in their foreign subsidiaries, in part due to typical bank risk-averse behavior. The empirical analysis confirms that foreign subsidiary ownership ratios are negatively associated with parent firms’ debt ratios. Moreover, this study finds evidence that greater bank ownership of the investing parent leads to lower foreign affiliate ownership shares. However, this result is not robust to two specifications: "crisis times" when bank lending is greatly restricted to all borrowers, and a follow-the-customer relationship where the bank already has an overseas subsidiary in the host country. |
| Date: | 2023–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9djup&r=ban |
| By: | Giese, Julia (Bank of England); Grace, Charlotte (Nuffield College, University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We compare the product-mix auction (PMA) – the mechanism used by the Bank of England (BoE) for its Indexed Long-Term Repo (ILTR) operations – to simpler alternative auction designs, namely a pair of separate simultaneous auctions, and a ‘reference price auction’. Using data from the auctions held in June 2010 to January 2014, we find that the PMA increased welfare (defined by the difference between the spreads that financial institutions were willing to pay and the spreads that the BoE was willing to accept) by approximately 50%, or 2 basis points per loan, relative to these alternatives. We would expect larger welfare gains in a less stable period than the period studied, and simulations confirm this. Broader benefits of the auctions of reducing systemic risk, while mitigating moral hazard, informing the BoE about stress in the market, and communicating the ‘correct’ price to the market, are taken into account in our approach, to the extent that the BoE’s supply curve internalises some of these externalities. We also find that the PMA always gave the BoE more (or occasionally the same) surplus and revenue relative to if one of the alternative designs had been used. However, the effect of the PMA on aggregate bidder surplus was ambiguous. The latter result may be a property of the period studied, and of the fact that there were only two sets of eligible collateral in this period. |
| Keywords: | Product mix auction; auction design; central bank liquidity provision |
| JEL: | D44 E58 |
| Date: | 2023–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1044&r=ban |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses how the eNaira central bank digital currency (CBDC) might be used to solve some economic problems in Nigeria. It presents the eNaira as a payment option, a monetary policy tool and a financial stability tool to solve some economic problems in Nigeria. I show that the eNaira can be instrumental in solving fiscal revenue challenges, controlling inflation, increasing foreign exchange accretion, managing exchange rate, addressing food insecurity, reducing financial stability risks, reducing poverty level, and recovering from a recession. The implication is that the eNaira can support the monetary, fiscal and regulatory authorities in preserving macroeconomic stability. However, a trade-off might arise among policy objectives if the eNaira cannot achieve multiple policy objectives at the same time. |
| Keywords: | eNaira, CBDC, central bank digital currency, fiscal revenue, inflation, foreign exchange, food insecurity, financial stability, poverty, Nigeria, blockchain, exchange rate, recession. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118805&r=ban |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | Financial institutions operating in a stable financial system seem to be willing to support the realization of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). This view assumes that financial stability is crucial for sustainable development. We investigate the effect of financial stability on sustainable development. We use a unique financial stability index, sustainable development index and four SDG indicators. We analyse 26 countries from 2011 to 2018 using the system GMM method. The findings of the sustainable development index analysis show that financial stability has a significant effect on the level of sustainable development and the effect is negative in Asian countries. European and Asian countries have a high sustainable development index compared to African countries. The result of the individual SDG analyses show that financial stability has a significant effect on SDG3. Financial stability has a negative effect on SDG10 in Asian countries and a negative effect on SDG3 during periods of economic prosperity. Financial stability has a positive effect on SDG3 and SDG7 in countries where the banking system have high capital buffer. The results show that the effect of financial stability on sustainable development depends on how sustainable development is measured. |
| Keywords: | Financial stability, sustainable development, financial institutions, institutional quality, capital buffer, sustainable development goals, economic growth, ZSCORE, banks. |
| JEL: | G21 Q01 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118793&r=ban |
| By: | Tim Weingärtner (Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Art); Fabian Fasser (Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Art); Pedro Reis Sá da Costa (Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Art); Walter Farkas (University of Zurich, ETH Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | Decentralized finance (DeFi) promises a revolution in financial accessibility, transparency, and automation. Yet, its very novelty exposes participants to a number of additional risks and challenges. This study aims to address the risks associated with DeFi, while also conducting a comparative analysis to those of classical/traditional finance (TradFi). After introducing DeFi and its defining characteristics, such as the use of smart contracts, blockchain technology, and decentralized governance, the paper outlines the principal risks associated with DeFi. Drawing insights from an extensive literature review of 200 recent articles, of which 50 were thoroughly analyzed, the study compares risks of DeFi and TradFi, categorizing these into systematic and unsystematic risks. Furthermore, we introduce the ‘risk wheel’, an innovative tool tailored to understand and navigate the subtleties of DeFi risks, finding potential applications in risk assessment, management, and even education. This paper’s primary objective is to provide a detailed and impartial examination of the risks associated with DeFi and their comparison to traditional finance in order to assist stakeholders in making informed decisions and mitigating possible losses. |
| Keywords: | decentralized finance, DeFi, risk management, literature review, risk classification, risk wheel. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2396&r=ban |
| By: | Antonio Acconcis (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF); Daniela Fabbri (Bayes Business School, City University of London); Annamaria Menichini (Università di Salerno and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | Empirical literature documenting the real costs of financial crises links the surge of unemployment to mainly bank frictions. This paper takes a more comprehensive approach by looking at how bank credit constraints, firm’s capital structure and inputs characteristics interact in shaping the firms’s response. We document that both the firm’s ability to substitute bank with trade credit and the characteristics of the inputs transacted along the supply chain matter in shaping the labor market reaction of Italian corporations to the unfolding of the 2008-9 financial crisis. As bank lending conditions tightened, firms intensively increasing their reliance on trade credit managed to partly mitigate their employment contraction but faced a stronger input bias against labor. Manufacturing firms largely using trade credit to buy differentiated inputs experienced a smaller drop in employment but a stronger input bias than firms buying standardized inputs. Finally, while the labor market recovered quite fast for firms increasing their reliance on trade credit, with the number of employees reaching the pre-crisis level around 2016, the shift toward technologies less intensive in labor showed more persistence, with the input bias even sharpening during 2013-14 and being in 2019 still 6 percentage points higher than the initial 2008 value. |
| Keywords: | Bank financing, trade credit, employment, labor share. |
| JEL: | G32 G33 K22 L14 |
| Date: | 2023–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:686&r=ban |
| By: | Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael J. |
| Abstract: | After the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world have increased their communication efforts to reach consumers, with the aim of both guiding and anchoring their inflation expectations. For the expectations channel of monetary policy to work as intended, central banks need a thorough understanding of the formation process of expectations by the general public and of the relationship between expectations and economic choices. This warrants reliable and detailed data on consumers’ expectations of macroeconomic variables such as inflation or interest rates. We thus survey the available survey data and issues regarding the measurement of macroeconomic expectations. Furthermore, we discuss the research frontier on important aspects of the expectations channel: We evaluate the evidence on whether expectations are formed consistently with standard macroeconomic relationships, discuss the insights with respect to the anchoring of inflation expectations, explore the role of narratives and preferences and lastly, we survey the research on causal effects of central bank communication on expectations and economic choices. |
| Keywords: | Consumers’ macroeconomic expectations, central bank communication, survey data |
| JEL: | E52 E30 D84 C83 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-714&r=ban |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the association between corporate governance and financial inclusion in terms of correlation and causation. It examines whether countries that have a strong corporate governance environment also have better financial inclusion outcomes. The indicators of financial inclusion are automated teller machines (ATMs) per 100, 000 adults, bank accounts per 1, 000 adults and bank branches per 100, 000 adults, while the indicators of corporate governance are extent of corporate transparency index, the extent of director liability index, the extent of disclosure index, the extent of ownership and control index, the extent of shareholder rights index, minority investors protection index and ease of shareholder suits index. The data were analyzed using Pearson correlation and granger causality tests. The results indicate that strong corporate governance is significantly correlated with better financial inclusion outcomes. The regional analyses show that corporate governance has a significant positive association with financial inclusion in Asian countries and in Middle East countries. However, a positive and negative association was observed between some indicators of corporate governance and financial inclusion in European countries, North American countries, South American countries, African countries and in Middle East and North Africa countries (MENA) countries, implying that strong corporate governance has a positive and negative association with financial inclusion depending on the indicators of corporate governance and financial inclusion used. There is also evidence of uni-directional granger causality between corporate governance and financial inclusion. |
| Keywords: | financial inclusion, corporate governance, financial institutions |
| JEL: | M12 M14 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118799&r=ban |
| By: | Bazán, Walter; Ortiz, Marco; Terrones, Marco; Winkelried, Diego |
| Abstract: | This paper inquires how private bank regulation and liquidity in the US are related to the deviations from the covered interest parity (CIP) condition. We find evidence that bank liquidity effects on CIP deviations partially offset those resulting from regulatory changes in a sample of 11 OECD countries over the 2001-2019 period. This finding supports an old conjecture that changes in private banks' liquidity and regulation could significantly affect the wedge between liquid US dollars and illiquid foreign exchange forward contracts in international financial markets. Interestingly, the effects of liquidity on CIP deviations become more important when the impact of bank regulation intensifies, reflecting the presence of interaction effects. |
| Keywords: | Cross-currency bases; covered interest rate parity; bank regulation; liquidity |
| JEL: | E44 F31 G14 G15 O24 |
| Date: | 2023–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118600&r=ban |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson |
| Abstract: | The impact of financial inclusion on economic growth is a topic that is generating widespread interest among researchers and practitioners. We review the existing literature to highlight the state of research in the literature and identify new opportunities for innovative research. We used a thematic literature review methodology which involves dividing the review along relevant themes. We find that significant research on the topic emerged in the post-2016 years. Most of the existing studies are from developing countries and from the Asian and African regions. Existing studies have not utilized relevant theories in explaining the impact of financial inclusion on economic growth. Most studies report a positive impact of financial inclusion on economic growth while very few studies show a negative impact. The most common channel through which financial inclusion affects economic growth is through greater access to financial products and services offered by financial institutions that increases financial intermediation and translates to positive economic growth. The common empirical methodology used in the literature are causality tests, cointegration and regression methods. Multiple proxies of financial inclusion and economic growth were used in the literature which partly explains the conflicting result among existing studies. The review paper concludes by identifying some directions for future research. |
| Keywords: | financial inclusion, economic growth, literature review, access to finance, GDP, GDP per capita, causality tests, regression, cointegration, Africa, Europe, Asia, financial inclusion, index, theory. |
| JEL: | E30 E32 G21 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118788&r=ban |
| By: | Wilmar Alexander Cabrera-Rodríguez; Daniela Rodríguez-Novoa; Camilo Eduardo Sánchez-Quinto |
| Abstract: | This document presents a Gaussian Affine Term Structure Model (GATSM) of the zero-coupon public debt curve issued locally by the Colombian Government, adopting the methodological approach of Hamilton and Wu (2012) to solve the problems of identification and instability in the estimation of this family of models. Two empirical exercises are presented to highlight the relevance of this methodological approach. The first combines the GATSM structure with a Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) approach to forecast the yield curve given a set of macroeconomic variables, thus offering a practical way to link a macroeconomic scenario to financial prices in a stress testing exercise. In particular, the document presents the connection with the Systemic Stress Model (SYSMO) of the Financial Stability Department of the Central Bank of Colombia. The second evaluates the effect of monetary policy surprises on sovereign bond yields on a comprehensive set of maturities in a parsimonious way allowed by the GATSM structure. We found an almost immediate, complete, and significant pass-through on the short end of the yield curve. These empirical applications reflect the flexibility of this approach as a tool to address studies that deepenthe understanding of the dynamics of yield curves and macroeconomics, the valuation of financial instruments, and financial stability. **** RESUMEN: Este documento presenta un Modelo Afín Gaussiano para la Estructura a Plazos (GATSM, por sus siglas en inglés) de la curva cero cupón de los títulos de deuda pública emitidos localmente por el Gobierno colombiano, adoptando el enfoque metodológico de Hamilton y Wu (2012) para resolver los problemas de identificación e inestabilidad en la estimación de esta familia de modelos. Se presentan dos ejercicios empíricos para resaltar la relevancia de este enfoque metodológico. El primero combina la estructura GATSM con un enfoque de Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) para predecir la curva de rendimientos dado un conjunto de variables macroeconómicas, ofreciendo así una forma práctica de vincular un escenario macroeconómico a los precios financieros en un ejercicio de pruebas de estrés. En particular, el documento presenta la conexión con el modelo de estrés sistémico (SYSMO) del Departamento de Estabilidad Financiera del Banco de la República de Colombia. El segundo ejercicio evalúa el efecto de las sorpresas de política monetaria sobre los rendimientos de los bonos soberanos en un conjunto amplio de vencimientos de una manera parsimoniosa permitida por la estructura del GATSM. Encontramos una transmisión casi inmediata, completa y significativa en el extremo corto de la curva de rendimientos. Estas aplicaciones empíricas reflejan la flexibilidad de este enfoque como herramienta para abordar estudios que profundizan en la relación entre las curvas de rendimiento y la macroeconomía, la valoración de los instrumentos financieros y la estabilidad financiera. |
| Keywords: | Affine term structure models, Bond Interest Rates, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy, Modelos afín de la estructura a término de las tasas de interés, tasas de interés de los bonos, mercados financieros y macroeconomía, política monetaria |
| JEL: | E43 G12 E44 E52 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1255&r=ban |
| By: | Ángel Iván Moreno (Banco de España); Teresa Caminero (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that global net-zero should be achieved by 2050. To this end, many private firms are pledging to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The Climate Data Steering Committee (CDSC) is working on an initiative to create a global central digital repository of climate disclosures, which aims to address the current data challenges. This paper assesses the progress within European financial institutions towards overcoming the data challenges outlined by the CDSC. Using a text-mining approach, coupled with the application of commercial Large Language Models (LLM) for context verification, we calculate a Greenhouse Gas Disclosure Index (GHGDI), by analysing 23 highly granular disclosures in the ESG reports between 2019 and 2021 of most of the significant banks under the ECB’s direct supervision. This index is then compared with the CDP score. The results indicate a moderate correlation between institutions not reporting to CDP upon request and a low GHGDI. Institutions with a high CDP score do not necessarily correlate with a high GHGDI. |
| Keywords: | ESG, sustainability, environment, climate change, carbon emissions, natural language processing, climate data challenges, OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s text-bison |
| JEL: | C88 G32 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2326&r=ban |
| By: | Ali Namaki; Reza Eyvazloo; Shahin Ramtinnia |
| Abstract: | Early warning systems (EWSs) are critical for forecasting and preventing economic and financial crises. EWSs are designed to provide early warning signs of financial troubles, allowing policymakers and market participants to intervene before a crisis expands. The 2008 financial crisis highlighted the importance of detecting financial distress early and taking preventive measures to mitigate its effects. In this bibliometric review, we look at the research and literature on EWSs in finance. Our methodology included a comprehensive examination of academic databases and a stringent selection procedure, which resulted in the final selection of 616 articles published between 1976 and 2023. Our findings show that more than 90\% of the papers were published after 2006, indicating the growing importance of EWSs in financial research. According to our findings, recent research has shifted toward machine learning techniques, and EWSs are constantly evolving. We discovered that research in this area could be divided into four categories: bankruptcy prediction, banking crisis, currency crisis and emerging markets, and machine learning forecasting. Each cluster offers distinct insights into the approaches and methodologies used for EWSs. To improve predictive accuracy, our review emphasizes the importance of incorporating both macroeconomic and microeconomic data into EWS models. To improve their predictive performance, we recommend more research into incorporating alternative data sources into EWS models, such as social media data, news sentiment analysis, and network analysis. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2310.00490&r=ban |
| By: | Guimaraes, Rodrigo (Bank of England); Pinter, Gabor (Bank of England); Wijnandts, Jean-Charles (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | The large reactions of long-term government bond yields to monetary policy shocks occur during periods of higher market liquidity, and there is very little reaction during periods of lower liquidity. This newly documented liquidity state-dependence persistently affects real yields, term premia as well as long-term mortgage rates. Balance sheet constraints on both hedge funds and dealers contribute to the liquidity state-dependence. Conditioning on market liquidity yields stronger state-dependence than simply conditioning on macroeconomic indicators. Our results underscore the importance of market functioning, and the financial health of key intermediaries that support it, for implementing stabilisation policies. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy Shocks; Market Liquidity; Real Term Premium; Intermediary Asset Pricing. |
| JEL: | E40 E50 G12 G23 |
| Date: | 2023–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1045&r=ban |
| By: | Antigoni Polychroniadou; Gilad Asharov; Benjamin Diamond; Tucker Balch; Hans Buehler; Richard Hua; Suwen Gu; Greg Gimler; Manuela Veloso |
| Abstract: | Inventory matching is a standard mechanism/auction for trading financial stocks by which buyers and sellers can be paired. In the financial world, banks often undertake the task of finding such matches between their clients. The related stocks can be traded without adversely impacting the market price for either client. If matches between clients are found, the bank can offer the trade at advantageous rates. If no match is found, the parties have to buy or sell the stock in the public market, which introduces additional costs. A problem with the process as it is presently conducted is that the involved parties must share their order to buy or sell a particular stock, along with the intended quantity (number of shares), to the bank. Clients worry that if this information were to leak somehow, then other market participants would become aware of their intentions and thus cause the price to move adversely against them before their transaction finalizes. We provide a solution, Prime Match, that enables clients to match their orders efficiently with reduced market impact while maintaining privacy. In the case where there are no matches, no information is revealed. Our main cryptographic innovation is a two-round secure linear comparison protocol for computing the minimum between two quantities without preprocessing and with malicious security, which can be of independent interest. We report benchmarks of our Prime Match system, which runs in production and is adopted by J.P. Morgan. The system is designed utilizing a star topology network, which provides clients with a centralized node (the bank) as an alternative to the idealized assumption of point-to-point connections, which would be impractical and undesired for the clients to implement in reality. Prime Match is the first secure multiparty computation solution running live in the traditional financial world. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2310.09621&r=ban |
| By: | Jeffrey R. Campbell; Filippo Ferroni; Jonas D. M. Fisher; Leonardo Melosi |
| Abstract: | The Chicago Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is used for policy analysis and forecasting at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. This guide describes its specification, estimation, dynamic characteristics, and how it is used to forecast the U.S. economy. In many respects the model resembles other medium-scale New Keynesian frameworks, but there are several features which distinguish it: the monetary policy rule includes anticipated future deviations, productivity is driven by both neutral and investment specific technical change, multiple price and wage indices identify price and wage inflation, the data are measured in a model consistent way, and market-expected interest rates are used to measure the expected path of the federal funds rate that is taken into account by the model’s agents when they make their decisions. The model also incorporates a new method introduced by Ferroni, Fisher, and Melosi (2023) to address the unusual Covid pandemic macroeconomic dynamics. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian model; DSGE models; covid-19; Pandemic; Survey of Professional Forecasters; Business cycles; Forecasting; Policy analysis |
| JEL: | E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 |
| Date: | 2023–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:97211&r=ban |
| By: | Alberto Plazzi (Università della Svizzera italiana; Swiss Finance Institute); Andrea Tamoni (Rutgers Business School); Marco Zanotti (Università della Svizzera italiana; Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | We investigate intermediaries demand for long-term cash flows by estimating a characteristic-based demand system on the equity holdings of primary dealers, pension funds, banks, and insurance companies. Institutions’ demand for equity duration varies over time and in the cross-section as a function of measures of capital availability. In the time-series, when financial constraints are tight, institutions curtail their demand for long-term claims and become more exposed to reinvestment risk. In the cross-section, unconstrained institutions tilt their portfolio more strongly toward long-duration stocks compared to their constrained peers. We conclude that institutional constraints impair the ability to seek for the hedging properties of long duration claims, to the point that institutions may be forced to leave their “preferred-habitat” allocation. Counterfactual analysis shows that shifts in preference for duration generate sizeable effects in the cross-section of stocks, with a stronger impact on firms with long-term cash flows such as high ESG-rated companies. |
| Keywords: | Institutional demand, Equity duration, Long-term investors, Capital constraints |
| JEL: | G10 G11 G20 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2394&r=ban |
| By: | Popova, Olga; See, Sarah Grace; Nikolova, Milena; Otrachshenko, Vladimir |
| Abstract: | What are the broad societal implications of inflation and unemployment? Analyzing a dataset of over 1.9 million individuals from 156 countries via the Gallup World Poll spanning 2005 to 2021, alongside macroeconomic data at the national level, we find that both inflation and unemployment have a negative link with confidence in financial institutions. While inflation is generally unassociated with confidence in government and leadership approval, unemployment still has a strong negative association with these outcomes. While we find no gender differences in the consequences of inflation and unemployment for confidence in political and financial institutions, the associations we document are more substantial for the cohorts that are likely to bear a disproportionate burden from inflation and unemployment-the middle-aged, lower-educated, and unmarried individuals, and for those living in rural areas. Uncertainty about the country's economic performance and one's own economic situation are the primary channels behind the associations we identify. These findings hold significant implications for policymakers, Central Banks, and public discourse, necessitating targeted strategies to alleviate the social consequences of inflation and unemployment. |
| Keywords: | inflation, unemployment, trust, confidence in institutions, Gallup World Poll |
| JEL: | D12 D83 E31 E58 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1341&r=ban |
| By: | Ajit Desai |
| Abstract: | This article reviews selected papers that use machine learning for economics research and policy analysis. Our review highlights when machine learning is used in economics, the commonly preferred models and how those models are used. |
| Keywords: | Central bank research; Econometric and statistical methods; Economic models |
| JEL: | A1 A10 B2 B23 C4 C45 C5 C55 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:23-16&r=ban |
| By: | Bukvić, Rajko |
| Abstract: | Serbian: Анализа концентрације, као једног од основних појмова у економској теорији, већ дуги низ деценија привлачи пажњу истраживача и креатора економске политике. У оквиру великог броја приступа и метода за њено мерење издвојила се класа тзв. апсолутних мера, а у њој индекс концентрације Cm (најчешће C4) и Хиршман-Херфиндалов индекс CH. Временом су развијене и друге мере, као што је Розенблатов, а једна од последњих је Кволсетов индекс. У раду се на основу података за банковни сектор Србије (без Косова и Метохије) за период 2016–2021 анализира понашање ових индекса и њихова међусобна корелисаност. Показано је да су три индекса доста чврсто корелисана, док кретање Розенблатовог у значајној мери одступа. English: Concentration analysis, as one of the basic concepts in economic theory, has been attracting the attention of researchers and economic policy makers for many decades. Within the large number of approaches and methods for its measurement, a class of so-called absolute measures, and in it the concentration index Cm (most often C4) and the Hirschman-Herfindahl index CH. Over time, other measures were developed, such as Rosenbluth's, and one of the last is the Kvålseth index. The paper analyzes the behavior of these indices and their mutual correlation based on data for the banking sector of Serbia (without Kosovo and Metohija) for the period 2016-2021. It is shown that the three indices are quite strongly correlated, while the movement of Rosenbluth’s deviates significantly. |
| Keywords: | концентрација, показатељи, индекс концентрације, Хиршман-Херфиндалов индекс, Розенблатов индекс, Кволсетов индекс, емпиријске провере, concentration, indicators, concentration index, Hirschman-Herfindahl index, Rosenbluth’s index, Kvålseth index, empirical tests |
| JEL: | C38 G21 L10 L19 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118820&r=ban |