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on Banking |
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Issue of 2022‒04‒18
24 papers chosen by Sergio Castellanos-Gamboa, , Pontificia Universidad Javeriana |
| By: | Krüger, Ulrich; Roling, Christoph; Silbermann, Leonid; Wong, Lui Hsian |
| Abstract: | In this paper we introduce two measures, the Systemic Liquidity Buffer (SLB) and the Systemic Liquidity Shortfall (SLS) to assess liquidity in the banking system. The SLB takes an aggregated perspective on liquidity risks in the banking system. In contrast, the SLS focusses on the problematic banks which suffer a liquidity shortfall. These measures provide an add-on to regulatory liquidity measures such as the LCR because they better incorporate a systemic perspective: (1) They model the impact of a funding shock by valuing assets at depressed market prices, (2) Doing so, they explicitly incorporate banks' strategic responses to a market undergoing sharp price declines. We test our approach using several applications capturing both a short (5 days) and a medium-term (30 days) stress scenario, a sudden rise in interest rates, the impact of banks' US dollar business and the recent COVID-19 crisis. |
| Keywords: | Systemic liquidity risk,market liquidity,funding liquidity,contagion,fire sales |
| JEL: | C63 G01 G17 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:062022&r= |
| By: | Thomas Schneider; Philip Strahan; Jun Yang |
| Abstract: | Relative performance evaluation (RPE) intensifies competitive pressure by tying executive compensation to the profits of rivals. We show that these contracts make loan syndication harder by reducing banks’ willingness to participate in loans underwritten by banks named in their RPE contracts. Lead arranger banks which are more frequently named in RPE hold larger shares of the loans they syndicate, and their borrowers face higher spreads. These banks, in turn, lose market share to banks less likely to be named in RPE. Our results highlight the tension between the normal benefits of competition versus the need for cooperation in loan syndication. |
| JEL: | G20 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29859&r= |
| By: | Muduli, Silu |
| Abstract: | The small, micro, and medium enterprise (MSME) sector in India was severely affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Government of India and the Reserve Bank of India brought numerous policy measures to revive and provide external liquidity support to borrowers in the MSMEs sector. Credit growth picked up in the MSME sector following the introduction of the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) scheme in May 2020, particularly of a loan of size less than 10 lakh. Initially, it benefited borrowers already having a relationship with the bank, later the benefit passed to new borrowers. On the usage of funds, nearly 45 per cent of these loans were used for clearing dues of vendors and 29 per cent to restart the business. On the performance of ECLGS loans, 88 per cent of loans are standard assets and 1.96 per cent are non-performing assets as of March 31, 2021. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,MSMEs Relief packages,MSME financing |
| JEL: | G28 G32 H12 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:250164&r= |
| By: | Degryse, Hans (KU Leuven & CEPR); Kokas, Sotirios (University of Essex); Minetti, Raoul (Michigan State University, Department of Economics); Peruzzi, Valentina (Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact that banks’ information on borrowing firms has on firm-level growth using matched bank-firm data from the U.S. credit market. Exploiting the structure of lending syndicates to construct proxies for bank information, we find consistent evidence that banks’ information spurs firms’ tangible and intangible investments, as well as promoting better growth outcomes. We find limited evidence of banks’ exploitation of informational monopolies that could deter firms’ investment, even when banks hold significant credit market power. Banks’ information does not appear to bias firm growth towards capital-intensive investments, but rather fosters employment growth. |
| Keywords: | Firm Growth; Banks; Information; Syndicates |
| JEL: | G21 L25 |
| Date: | 2022–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:msuecw:2022_003&r= |
| By: | Kristian S. Blickle; Donald P. Morgan |
| Abstract: | Climate change could affect banks and the financial systems they anchor through various channels: increasingly extreme weather is one (Financial Stability Board, Basel Committee on Bank Supervision). In our recent staff report, we size up this channel by studying how U.S. banks, large and small, fared against disasters past. We find even the most destructive disasters had insignificant or small effects on bank stability and small and positive effects on bank income. We conjecture that recovery lending after disasters helps stabilize larger banks while smaller, local banks’ knowledge of “unmarked” (flood) hazards may help them navigate disaster risk. Federal disaster aid seems not to act as a bank stabilizer. |
| Keywords: | climate change; financial stability |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2022–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93906&r= |
| By: | Max Fuchs (University of Kassel) |
| Abstract: | Private cryptocurrencies allow for payments without the need for a financial institution. These institutions, the central bank and retail banks, may thus observe a decline in the demand for their payments systems, i.e. cash and deposits. Using the monetary search model of Lagos and Wright (2005), we show that the central bank is able to tilt the playing field until it wins. By introducing an interest-bearing central bank digital currency (CBDC), the central bank is able to provide a payment system which is superior to cryptocurrencies. Miners cannot match the CBDC rate and go bankrupt. Retail banks, on the other hand, face lower profits but survive in the equilibrium. In addition, it can be welfare-improving to kick out cryptocurrencies by an interest-bearing CBDC. |
| Keywords: | CBDC, cryptocurrencies, welfare analysis |
| JEL: | E41 E42 E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202210&r= |
| By: | Mr. Ken Miyajima; Mr. Heiko Hesse |
| Abstract: | Globally, financial institutions have increased their holdings of domestic sovereign debt, tightening the linkage between the health of the financial system and the level of sovereign debt, or the “financial sector-sovereign nexus,” during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In South Africa, the nexus is still relatively moderate, albeit rising, and the increased focus of the Prudential Authority on the associated risks provide reassurance. Options to mitigate such risks through the use of regulatory measures can be explored. However, absent the necessary fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, risks from the nexus to both the financial system and the sovereign will increase. |
| Keywords: | South Africa, Financial Sector, Sovereign Debt, Bank-Sovereign Nexus, Home Bias, Financial Stability, Banking Risk, Sovereign Risk, Capital Flows, Bank Regulation |
| Date: | 2022–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/051&r= |
| By: | Pike, Susan C.; D'Agostino, Mollie C. |
| Abstract: | The more than 350 transit agencies in California currently offer a patchwork of payment options, including cash, contactless payments, and a multitude of agency-issued cards. This inconsistency across transit operators acts as a barrier to the use of public transit. The California Integrated Travel Project (Cal-ITP) was established in 2018 to create an integrated, statewide payment system to make travel simpler and more cost-effective. Cal-ITP is pursuing open-loop payment systems, which offer a suite of digital payment options such as credit and debit cards, prepaid debit cards, app-based wallet systems, and peer- to-peer payment apps. However, questions remain about whether open-loop payment systems would accommodate all travelers, particularly those who are unbanked (i.e., do not have a bank account) or underbanked (i.e., have only a savings or checking account, but not both) and typically rely on cash. Researchers at the University of California, Davis partnered with Cal-ITP to study how transit fare payments could be modernized while remaining accessible to unbanked and underbanked riders. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Public transportation, un-and underbanked, open payments, transit payments, transit equity, transit access |
| Date: | 2022–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3g26c4jn&r= |
| By: | Martin Waltz; Abhay Kumar Singh; Ostap Okhrin |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an important extension to Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR), the popular systemic risk measure, and investigates its properties on the cryptocurrency market. The proposed Vulnerability-CoVaR (VCoVaR) is defined as the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a financial system or institution, given that at least one other institution is equal or below its VaR. The VCoVaR relaxes normality assumptions and is estimated via copula. While important theoretical findings of the measure are detailed, the empirical study analyzes how different distressing events of the cryptocurrencies impact the risk level of each other. The results show that Litecoin displays the largest impact on Bitcoin and that each cryptocurrency is significantly affected if an event of joint distress among the remaining market participants occurs. The VCoVaR is shown to capture domino effects better than other CoVaR extensions. |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2203.10777&r= |
| By: | Ryan, Ellen |
| Abstract: | The investment fund sector has expanded dramatically since the crisis of 2008-2009. As the sector grows, so do the implications of its risk-taking for the wider financial system and real economy. This paper provides empirical evidence for the existence of widespread risk-taking incentives in the investment fund sector, with a particular focus on incentives for synchronised, cyclical risk-taking which could have systemic effects. Incentives arise from the positive response of investors to returns achieved through cyclical risk-taking and non-linearities in the relationship between fund returns and fund flows, which may keep managers from fully internalising the effects of adverse outcomes on their portfolios. The fact that market discipline may not be sufficient to ensure prudential behaviour among managers, combined with the externalities of this risk-taking for the wider system, creates a clear case for macroprudential regulatory intervention. JEL Classification: G23, G11, G28 |
| Keywords: | Financial stability, incentive, investment funds, macroprudential policy, risk-taking |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222652&r= |
| By: | Péter Csóka (Department of Finance, Corvinus University of Budapest and Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); P. Jean-Jacques Herings (Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University) |
| Abstract: | We consider financial networks where agents are linked to each other with financial contracts. A centralized clearing mechanism collects the initial endowments, the liabilities and the division rules of the agents and determines the payments to be made. A division rule specifies how the assets of the agents should be rationed, the four most common ones being the proportional, the priority, the constrained equal awards, and the constrained equal losses division rules. Since payments made depend on payments received, we are looking for solutions to a system of equations. The set of solutions is known to have a lattice structure, leading to the existence of a least and a greatest clearing payment matrix. Previous research has shown how decentralized clearing selects the least clearing payment matrix. We present a centralized approach towards clearing in order to select the greatest clearing payment matrix. To do so, we formulate the determination of the greatest clearing payment matrix as a programming problem. When agents use proportional division rules, this programming problem corresponds to a linear programming problem. We show that for the other common division rules, it can be written as an integer linear programming problem. |
| Keywords: | Financial networks, systemic risk, bankruptcy rules, clearing, integer linear programming |
| JEL: | C71 G10 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2208&r= |
| By: | Pike, Susan; D’Agostino, Mollie; Flynn, Kailey |
| Abstract: | Transit agencies are looking for ways to save costs and improve transit rider experiences. One strategy to accomplish this is to replace legacy payment systems that accept cash and in-network agency-issued tickets or cards with fully digital open-loop payments systems, which accept all debit, credit, and mobile payments and are more readily interoperable between different transit agencies and shared mobility operators. This transition will not come without confronting a number of equity and logistical challenges to ensure all riders benefit from this transition. The state of California’s California Integrated Travel Project (Cal-ITP) aims to help transit agencies make this digital payment transition. Researchers at UC Davis partnered with Cal-ITP to explore this question: how can California transit agencies modernize fare payment while ensuring transit systems are open and accessible to un-and underbanked riders? Researchers collected 200+ intercept surveys in the Davis-Sacramento-Woodland area of California to assess the potential for un-and underbanked passengers to use digital payment tools, such as contactless cards, and smartphone-based apps. This research finds that among unbanked riders who typically pay with cash, more than half of respondents would be open to paying with a prepaid debit card or a prepaid government-issued debit card, and about a third are open to paying with a mobile phone. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Business, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Public transportation, un-and underbanked, open payments, transit payments, transit equity, transit access |
| Date: | 2022–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8hb738wd&r= |
| By: | Wosnitza, Jan Henrik |
| Abstract: | The transformation of credit scores into probabilities of default plays an important role in credit risk estimation. The linear logistic regression has developed into a standard calibration approach in the banking sector. With the advent of machine learning techniques in the discriminatory phase of credit risk models, however, the standard calibration approach is currently under scrutiny again. In particular, the assumptions behind the linear logistic regression provide critics with a target. Previous literature has converted the calibration problem into a regression task without any loss of generality. In this paper, we draw on recent academic results in order to suggest two new one-parametric families of differentiable functions as candidates for this regression. The derivation of these two families of differentiable functions is based on the maximum entropy principle and, thus, they rely on a minimum number of assumptions. We compare the performance of four calibration approaches on a real-world data set and find that one of the new one-parametric families outperforms the linear logistic regression. Furthermore, we develop an approach in order to quantify the part of the general estimation error of probabilities of default that stems from the statistical dispersion of the discriminatory power. |
| Keywords: | Calibration,credit score,cumulative accuracy profile,logistic regression,margin of conservatism,probability of default |
| JEL: | G17 G21 G33 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:042022&r= |
| By: | Andrej Gill (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz); Florian Hett (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz); Johannes Tischer (Deutsche Bundesbank) |
| Abstract: | Households regularly fail to make optimal financial decisions. But what are the underlying reasons for this? Using two conceptually distinct measures of time inconsistency based on bank account transaction data and behavioral measurement experiments, we show that the excessive use of bank account overdrafts is linked to time inconsistency. By contrast, there is no correlation between a survey-based measure of financial literacy and overdraft usage. Our results indicate that consumer education and information may not suffice to overcome mistakes in households’ financial decision-making. Rather, behaviorally motivated interventions targeting specific biases in decision-making should also be considered as effective policy tools. |
| Keywords: | Household Finance, Paycheck Sensitivity, Fintech, Time Inconsistency, Time Preferences, Experiment, Behavioral Measurement |
| JEL: | D14 D90 G51 G53 |
| Date: | 2022–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2205&r= |
| By: | D'Orazio, Paola; Hertel, Tobias; Kasbrink, Fynn |
| Abstract: | Climate change poses several risks to the value of financial assets and financial stability. The study conducted in this paper focuses on the German banking sector and estimates its exposure to climate risks arising from a transition to a carbon-neutral economy. Our analysis identifies the energy, transportation, and manufacturing sectors as the most sensitive to transition risks and shows that the German banking sector's direct exposure to climate transition risks is non-negligible. Moreover, it points out that an amplified exposure to transition risks characterizes large private banks. These findings are comparable to other countries' exposures and relevant to financial supervision and regulation, calling for increased engagement to assess, measure, and manage climate-related financial risks. |
| Keywords: | Climate-related financial risks,transition risks,banking sector,climate policy,climate neutrality,climate-related prudential regulation |
| JEL: | E58 G21 Q53 Q54 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:946&r= |
| By: | Heng Chen; Walter Engert; Kim Huynh; Daneal O’Habib; Joy Wu; Julia Zhu |
| Abstract: | We provide an update on the impact the COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for cash and the use of methods of payment based on data from the Bank Note Distribution System and from consumer surveys conducted in April and August 2021. Our key findings are as follows: • Cash in circulation remained high throughout 2021, driven mainly by demand for large-denomination notes. • Canadians’ holdings of cash on hand in April (median $70) and August (median $80) were comparable to results seen in 2020. Other cash holdings reported by Canadians remained elevated, with a median value of $260 in August. • In August 2021, 62% of Canadians used cash for payments, and indicators of merchant acceptance of cash improved in both the April and August surveys. • A large majority of Canadians (around 80%) in 2021 continued reporting that they have no plans to go cashless in the next five years. |
| Keywords: | Bank notes; Central bank research; Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Digital currencies and fintech; Econometric and statistical methods |
| JEL: | C C1 C12 C9 E E4 O O5 O54 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:22-8&r= |
| By: | Belloni, Marco; Kuik, Friderike; Mingarelli, Luca |
| Abstract: | In recent years there has been growing attention on the risks posed by climate change. One relevant question for financial stability is to which extent the materialisation of transition risks emerging from the sudden implementation of climate change mitigation policies would impact the financial system. In this paper we analyze the effects of changes in carbon price on the European banking system. We assess this climate change transition risk through a banking sector contagion model where firms are negatively impacted by an increase in carbon prices. Using a unique granular dataset we evaluate the consequences of a combination of different increases in carbon prices and firm emission reduction strategies. We find that taking early policy action, implying more gradual changes in carbon prices, is not expected to lead to adverse impacts on the banking system, especially if firms reduce their emissions efficiently. Conversely, a disorderly, abrupt transition to a low carbon economy requiring very high sudden changes in carbon prices might have disruptive effects on the financial system, especially if firms fail to reduce their emissions. JEL Classification: Q48, Q54, Q58 |
| Keywords: | climate change, empirical banking, financial networks, transition risk |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222654&r= |
| By: | Agnusia, Nur Adillah; dewi, Asmila |
| Abstract: | Pemasaran juga bisa diartikan perpaduan dari aktivitas-aktivitas yang saling berhubungan untuk mengetahui kebutuhan konsumen, mengembangkan promosi, distribusi, pelayanan dan harga agar kebutuhan konsumen dapat terpuaskan dengan baik pada tingkat keuntungan tertentu. Dengan adanya pemasaran, konsumen tidak perlu lagi memenuhi kebutuhan pribadi secara sendiri-sendiri dengan melakukan pertukaran antara konsumen dengan pelaku pemasar sehingga akan ada banyak waktu konsumen untuk kegiatan yang dikuasai atau disukai.Masih terjadi perdebatan antara konsep pemasaran dari bank berbasis syariah dan bank berbasis konvensional. Segala bentuk sisitem menejemen pemasaran mempunyai arah yang sama untuk mendapatkan market share. Hal yang menjadi pembeda adalah etika dari seorang pemasar bank syariah yang harus benar-benar berbeda dengan para pemasar bank konvensional agar proses sosialisasi dan pelayanan yang diberikan oleh bank berbasis syariah kepada masyarakat menjadi lebih efektif. |
| Date: | 2022–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5pm2z&r= |
| By: | Clayton, Christopher; Santos, Amanda Dos; Maggiori, Matteo; Schreger, Jesse |
| Abstract: | We empirically characterize how China is internationalizing the Renminbi by selectively opening up its domestic bond market and propose a dynamic reputation model to understand China's internationalization strategy. While previously closed to foreign investors, China has recently allowed major increases in foreign investment in its domestic bond market. China carefully controlled the entrance of foreign investors into its market, first allowing in relatively stable long-term investors like central banks before allowing in flightier investors like mutual funds. Foreign investors increasingly treat Renminbi denominated assets as a substitute for safe developed-market government bonds. Our framework explains these patterns as the result of a government strategy to build its reputation as an international currency issuer while minimizing the cost of potential capital flight as it gains credibility. We analyze optimal two-way liberalization: gradually letting more domestic capital flow abroad as foreigners increase their participation in domestic markets. |
| Date: | 2022–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:r2msa&r= |
| By: | Billi, Roberto M. (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden) |
| Abstract: | I study the welfare performance of a policy regime of fiscal activism in which fiscal policy acts as an automatic stabilizer and controls inflation, while monetary policy pegs the nominal interest rate. When evaluated through the lens of a standard New Keynesian model, accounting for price and wage rigidities and for a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate, fiscal activism can substantially outperform inflation targeting in the face of both demand shocks and technology shocks. Fiscal activism can also eliminate the occurrence of ZLB episodes. |
| Keywords: | automatic stabilizers; Öscal and monetary interactions; government debt |
| JEL: | E24 E31 E52 E63 |
| Date: | 2022–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0412&r= |
| By: | Hahm, Joon-Ho (Yonsei University); Lee, Dong Jin (Sangmyung University); Park, Cyn-Young (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy shocks on income and wealth inequalities in the Republic of Korea. Using the detailed Household Income and Expenditure Survey and Korean Labor and Income Panel Study data, we construct measures of income and wealth inequality for the Korean economy. Empirical results show that both domestic and external monetary policy shocks exert significant countercyclical effects on income inequality. For wealth inequality, however, the effects are very different. Whereas domestic monetary policy shocks are insignificant, external policy shocks proxied by fluctuations in net capital flows seem to have significant effects on net wealth inequality. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; income inequality; wealth inequality; external monetary policy shock; emerging market economies |
| JEL: | D31 E44 E52 F42 G51 |
| Date: | 2022–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0654&r= |
| By: | Ramadani, Ainun |
| Abstract: | Indonesia mempunyai tiga pilar kekuatan ekonomi yang melaksanakan berbagai kegiatan usaha dalam tata kehidupan perekonomian, diantaranya Badan Usaha Milik Negara, Badan Usaha Milik Swasta dan Koperasi. Koperasi merupakan bagian tiga pilar perekonomian yang turut serta membantu kesejahteraan masyarakat, dan memilki peranan yang sangat penting dalam perekonomian nasional. Koperasi memiliki sub unit simpan pinjam, yang merupakan media penyimpanan dan pinjaman bagi para anggotanya, dimana operasional transaksi menggunkan sistem bunga seperti halnya bank. Tingkat bunga pada keuangan konvensional termasuk koperasi merupakan salah satu pertimbangan anggota dalam memutuskan untuk menyimpan dan meminjam pada koperasi. Sistem bunga yang diberlakukan oleh lembaga keuangan konvensional maupun oleh koperasi merupakan bentuk riba yang dilarang di setiap agama termasuk agama Islam. Riba merupakan bantuk penambahan untuk mencapai keuntungan secara sepihak yang terdapat dalam transaksi yang dilakukan oleh lembaga keuangan konvensional. Solusi yang dapat dilakukan oleh koperasi berserta pengurus dan anggota dengan merubah atau melakukan konversi dari sistem operasional transaksi konvensional berbasis bunga (riba) menjadi sistem operasional berdasarkan syariah. Konversi dan akuisisi lembaga keuangan konvensional menjadi syariah menjadi trend pembetukan bank syariah di tahun 2008 dan menjadi salah satu upaya yang dapat ditempuh untuk meningkatkan lembaga keuangan syariah khususnya koperasi syariah di Indonesia secara lebih cepat. Untuk itu banyak warga Indonesia yang butuh mengenal Koperasi Syariah secara umum. Berdasarkan uraian diatas, maka penulis tertarik untuk membahas mengenai sejarah koperasi syariah di Indonesia dengan judul “Koperasi Syariah dan UMKM”. |
| Date: | 2022–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:cgj43&r= |
| By: | YOSHIDA Yushi; Weiyang ZHAI; SASAKI Yuri; Siyu ZHANG |
| Abstract: | We apply the structural VAR model to Japan under the unconventional monetary policy regime, 2000Q1 and 2019Q4. In addition to the traditional sign restrictions, we impose narrative sign restrictions based on five phenomenal economic episodes. Estimated exchange rate pass-through induced by monetary policy shock or exogenous exchange rate shock is consistent with the conventional view, i.e., a Japanese yen depreciation induces inflation at the consumer level. On the other hand, we found evidence of perverse exchange rate pass-through induced by demand shock. A ten percent exchange rate depreciation driven by weak domestic demand is associated with a one percent deflation at the consumer level. The magnitude of the latter effect is greater than the former. This demand-shock-induced exchange rate pass-through effect may have undermined the continuous efforts of the Bank of Japan to achieve the target of a two percent inflation rate. |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:22020&r= |
| By: | Barbara Annicchiarico (DEF and CEIS, Università di Roma "Tor Vergata"); Fabio Di Dio (Institute for Globally Distributed Open Research and Education (IGDORE)); Francesca Diluiso (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of expectations and monetary policy on the economy’s response to climate actions. We show that in a stochastic environment and without the standard assumption of perfect rationality of agents, there is more uncertainty regarding the path and the economic impact of a climate policy, with a potential threat to the ability of central banks to maintain price stability. Market beliefs and behavioral agents increase the trade-offs inherent to the chosen mitigation tool, with a carbon tax entailing more emissions uncertainty than in a rational expectations model and a cap-and-trade scheme implying a more pronounced pressure on allowances prices and inflation. The impact on price stability is worsened by delays in the implementation of stringent climate policies, by the lack of confidence in the ability of central banks to keep inflation under control, and by the adoption of monetary rules tied to expectations rather than current macroeconomic conditions. Central banks can implement successful stabilization policies that reduce the uncertainty surrounding the impact of climate actions and support the greening process while staying within their mandate. |
| Keywords: | Climate policy; monetary policy; expectations; inflation; market sentiments; business cycle. |
| JEL: | D83 Q50 E32 E71 |
| Date: | 2022–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:535&r= |