nep-ban New Economics Papers
on Banking
Issue of 2022‒02‒14
seventeen papers chosen by
Sergio Castellanos-Gamboa, , Pontificia Universidad Javeriana

  1. Measuring and stress-testing market-implied bank capital By Martin Indergand; Eric Jondeau; Andreas Fuster
  2. European bank profitability: the Great Convergence? By Martien Lamers; Thomas Present; Rudi Vander Vennet
  3. Money, Credit and Imperfect Competition Among Banks By Allen Head; Timothy Kam; Sam Ng; Isaac Pan
  4. The effect of revenue diversification on bank profitability and stability during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Kenya By Ochenge, Rogers
  5. Stablecoins: Growth Potential and Impact on Banking By John Caramichael; Gordon Y. Liao
  6. Assessing the Impact of Basel III: Evidence from Structural Macroeconomic Models By Jean-Guillaume Sahuc; Olivier de Bandt; Hibiki Ichiue; Bora Durdu; Yasin Mimir; Jolan Mohimont; Kalin Nikolov; Sigrid Roehrs; Valério Scalone; Michael Straughan
  7. Impact of Microcredit on Labour Migration Decisions: Evidence from a Cambodian Household Survey By Chan Mono Oum; Gazi M. Hassan; Mark J. Holmes
  8. Cyprus: Technical Assistance Report-Debt and Cash Management By International Monetary Fund
  9. Mortgage-Backed Securities By Andreas Fuster; David O. Lucca; James Vickery
  10. Payment Coordination and Liquidity Efficiency in the New Canadian Wholesale Payments System By Francisco Rivadeneyra; Nellie Zhang
  11. Monetary Policy and Endogenous Financial Crises By Frédéric Boissay; Fabrice Collard; Jordi Galí; Cristina Manea
  12. Heterogeneity, Bubbles and Monetary Policy By Jacopo Bonchi; Salvatore Nisticò
  13. Financial Markets and ECB Monetary Policy Communication – A Second QE Surprise By Martin Baumgaertner
  14. Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks By Ricardo Nunes; Ali K. Ozdagli; Jenny Tang
  15. Monetary policy during unbalanced global recoveries By Luca Fornaro; Federica Romei
  16. Designing a sound GRM: Principles and International Experience. By Banerjee, Sudipto; Dimri, Aditi
  17. Republic of Moldova: 2021 Article IV Consultation and Requests for an Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova By International Monetary Fund

  1. By: Martin Indergand; Eric Jondeau; Andreas Fuster
    Abstract: We propose a methodology for measuring the market-implied capital of banks by subtracting from the market value of equity (market capitalization) a credit spread-based correction for the value of shareholders' default option. We show that without such a correction, the estimated impact of a severe market downturn is systematically distorted, underestimating the risk of banks with low market capitalization. We argue that this adjusted measure of capital is the relevant market-implied capital measure for policymakers. We propose an econometric model for the combined simulation of equity prices and CDS spreads, which allows us to introduce this correction in the SRISK framework for measuring systemic risk.
    Keywords: Banking, capital, stress test, systemic risk, multifactor model
    JEL: C32 G01 G21 G28 G32
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Martien Lamers; Thomas Present; Rudi Vander Vennet (-)
    Abstract: Have Euro Area banks restored viability in the post-crisis era? We investigate profitability convergence for Euro Area banks over the period 2009-2020 using the concepts of ß and s convergence and a club clustering algorithm. Our evidence is consistent with a slow catch up of the weaker banks, but we also document that better performing banks converge towards a lower profit level, suggesting a ‘great convergence’ towards the middle. Moreover, we identify a cluster of banks exhibiting dismal profit dynamics, indicating the need for a restructuring of part of the Euro Area banking sector.
    Keywords: Euro Area banks, bank profitability, ß convergence, s convergence, club clustering analysis
    JEL: C38 G20 G21
    Date: 2022–02
  3. By: Allen Head (Queen's University); Timothy Kam (Australian National University); Sam Ng (Australian National University); Isaac Pan (University of Sydney)
    Abstract: Using micro-level data for the U.S., we provide new evidence—at national and state levels—of a positive (negative) relationship between the standard deviation (coefficient of variation)and the average in bank lending-rate markups. In a quantitative theory consistent with theseempirical observations, banks’ lending market power is determined in equilibrium and is a novelchannel of monetary policy. At low inflation, banks tend to extract higher markups from existingloan customers rather than competing for additional loans. As a result, banking activity neednot be welfare-improving if inflation is sufficiently low. This result speaks to concerns regardingmarket power in the banking sectors of low-inflation countries. Normatively, under a giveninflation target, welfare gains arise if a central bank can use additional liquidity-provision (ortax-and-transfer) instruments to offset banks’ market-power incentives
    Keywords: Banking; Credit; Markup Dispersion; Market Power; Stabilization Policy; Liquidity
    JEL: E41 E44 E51 E63 G21
    Date: 2022–02
  4. By: Ochenge, Rogers
    Abstract: This paper uses annual data from Kenyan banks over the 2010-2020 period to empirically analyze the link between diversification (non-interest income) and bank performance. Using dynamic panel regressions, the study finds that banks which diversify (functionally) their sources of revenues tend to be more profitable and financially stable. Importantly, the study finds that reliance on non-interest revenue sources acts as an economically important shock absorber in times of declining profits such as witnessed in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. From a policy perspective, these results encourage banks to leverage on new technologies to create non-traditional products whose operating marginal costs are small. This also calls for regulators to remain open to such innovations.
    Date: 2022
  5. By: John Caramichael; Gordon Y. Liao
    Abstract: Stablecoins have experienced tremendous growth in the past year, serving as a possible breakthrough innovation in the future of payments. In this paper, we discuss the current use cases and growth opportunities of stablecoins, and we analyze the potential for stablecoins to broadly impact the banking system. The impact of stablecoin adoption on traditional banking and credit provision can vary depending on the sources of inflow and the composition of stablecoin reserves. Among the various scenarios, a two-tiered banking system can both support stablecoin issuance and maintain traditional forms of credit creation. In contrast, a narrow bank approach for digital currencies can lead to disintermediation of traditional banking, but may provide the most stable peg to fiat currencies. Additionally, dollar-pegged stablecoins backed by adequately safe and liquid collateral can potentially serve as a digital safe haven currency during periods of crypto market distress.
    Keywords: Stablecoins; Digital currencies; Credit intermediation; Banking; Systemic risk; Fintech; Financial innovation; Payment system
    JEL: E40 E50 F33 G10 G20 O30
    Date: 2022–01–31
  6. By: Jean-Guillaume Sahuc; Olivier de Bandt; Hibiki Ichiue; Bora Durdu; Yasin Mimir; Jolan Mohimont; Kalin Nikolov; Sigrid Roehrs; Valério Scalone; Michael Straughan
    Abstract: This paper (i) reviews the different channels of transmission of prudential policy highlighted in the literature and (ii) provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of Basel III reforms using "off-the-shelf" DSGE models. It shows that the effects of regulation are positive on GDP whenever the costs and benefits of regulation are both introduced. However, this result may be associated with a temporary economic slowdown in the transition to Basel III, which can be accommodated by monetary policy. The assessment of liquidity requirements is still an area for research, as most models focus on costs, rather than on benefits, in particular in terms of lower contagion risk.
    Keywords: Basel III reforms, DSGE models, solvency requirements, liquidity requirements
    JEL: E3 E44 G01 G21 G28
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Chan Mono Oum (University of Waikato); Gazi M. Hassan (University of Waikato); Mark J. Holmes (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: The new economics of labour migration (NELM) suggests that migration substitutes for inaccessible credit markets. However, in a paradigm shift towards profit orientation, microfinance organizations in developing countries offer greater access to credit to potential migrants. That casts doubt on the prior understanding of the link between access to microcredit and migration. Exploiting survey data from 422 households in the northern part of Cambodia, this study examines the relationship between microcredit borrowing and migration decisions through the NELM theory in the South-South Migration (SSM) perspective. We employ the Endogenous Switching Probit model (ESP) to control for selection bias in borrowing decisions and the structural differences between borrowing and non-borrowing decisions that influence migration decisions. After instrumenting, the findings suggest that households with access to credit are more likely to have migrated family members than their non-borrowing counterparts, refuting the notion of migration as a substitute for credit. Household with borrowings from financial institution increase the likelihood of migrating by 5.6 percent while households with informal borrowing have a propensity to migrate about 3.2 percent. Our results have a number of policy implications, including guiding policymakers in rethinking the role of microcredit provision and redesigning microfinance programmes to maximise the return on labour migration.
    Keywords: formal credit; informal credit; microcredit; migration decisions; Cambodia
    JEL: F22 G51 R23
    Date: 2022–01–11
  8. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: In tandem with Eurozone financial market developments and the prevalence of negative interest rates in 2020, Cypriot banks passed through the costs of their liquidity to their customers, reducing the attractiveness of placing PDMO cash surpluses in domestic bank deposits. Suitable investment alternatives to central bank deposits for the PDMO’s liquidity buffer are scarce, given negative yields on other Eurozone sovereign and agency issues. This situation is shared by the PDMO with almost all of its Eurozone peers. While this is likely to persist in the short term, it should not preclude establishing a framework governing the PDMO’s investment policy or a suitable set of guidelines.
    Date: 2022–01–05
  9. By: Andreas Fuster; David O. Lucca; James Vickery
    Abstract: This paper reviews the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market, with a particular emphasis on agency residential MBS in the United States. We discuss the institutional environment, security design, MBS risks and asset pricing, and the economic effects of mortgage securitization. We also assemble descriptive statistics about market size, growth, security characteristics, prepayment, and trading activity. Throughout, we highlight insights from the expanding body of academic research on the MBS market and mortgage securitization.
    Keywords: mortgage finance; securitization; agency mortgage-backed securities; TBA; option-adjusted spreads; covered bonds
    JEL: G10 G12 G21
    Date: 2022–02–01
  10. By: Francisco Rivadeneyra; Nellie Zhang
    Abstract: A new wholesale payments system will launch in Canada in 2021. This real-time gross settlement system called Lynx will have two types of settlement mechanisms, one allowing offsetting and the other not. This paper studies the decision problem of the Bank of Canada: which of the two settlement mechanisms should it use to send its payments. Using extensive simulation, we show that, mainly due to the benefits of liquidity pooling, Lynx would achieve its highest liquidity efficiency—even better than that of the current Large Value Transfer System (LVTS)—if all payments (urgent and non-urgent) from all participants were sent to the mechanism allowing offsetting. The minimum amount of liquidity required to settle all payments by critical deadlines is approximately $10 billion, around half the amount of collateral that LVTS participants allocate (pre–COVID-19). Since time-critical payments sent to the offsetting mechanism could experience a delay, the high level of liquidity efficiency is accompanied by an increase in the number of participants' operational interventions (to pledge more collateral or to alter payment priorities) to ensure that those time-critical payments are never delayed. When coordination does not occur, liquidity efficiency can be far lower than in the LVTS. The results highlight that the Bank of Canada helping with coordination is more important than the specific choice of mechanism.
    Keywords: Payment clearing and settlement systems
    JEL: C C5 E42 E58
    Date: 2022–02
  11. By: Frédéric Boissay (Unknown); Fabrice Collard (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jordi Galí (Unknown); Cristina Manea (Unknown)
    Abstract: We study whether a central bank should deviate from its objective of price stability to promote financial stability. We tackle this question within a textbook New Keynesian model augmented with capital accumulation and microfounded endogenous financial crises. We compare several interest rate rules, under which the central bank responds more or less forcefully to inflation and aggregate output. Our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy affects the probability of a crisis both in the short run (through aggregate demand) and in the medium run (through savings and capital accumulation). Second, a central bank can both reduce the probability of a crisis and increase welfare by departing from strict inflation targeting and responding systematically to fluctuations in output. Third, financial crises may occur after a long period of unexpectedly loose monetary policy as the central bank abruptly reverses course.
    Keywords: Financial crisis,Monetary policy
    Date: 2022–01–04
  12. By: Jacopo Bonchi (Department of Economics and Finance and School of European Political Economy, LUISS Guido Carli); Salvatore Nisticò (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome)
    Abstract: Using a tractable New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents, we analyze the interplay between households' heterogeneity and rational bubbles, and their normative implications for monetary policy. Households are infinitely-lived and heterogeneous because of two sources of idiosyncratic uncertainty, which makes them stochastically cycle in and out of segmented asset markets, and in and out of employment. We show that bubbles can emerge in equilibrium despite the fact that households are infinitely lived, because of the structural heterogeneity that affects their activity in asset and labor markets. The elasticity of an endogenous labor supply, the heterogeneity in asset-market participation and the level of long-run monopolistic distortions are shown to affect the size of equilibrium bubbles and their cyclical implications. We also show that a central bank concerned with social welfare faces an additional tradeoff implied by bubbly fluctuations which makes, in general, strict inflation targeting a suboptimal monetary-policy regime.
    Keywords: Inequality, Rational bubbles, Optimal monetary policy, HANK
    JEL: E21 E32 E44 E58
    Date: 2022–02
  13. By: Martin Baumgaertner (THM Business School Giessen)
    Abstract: This paper shows that a different communication style of the European Central Bank (ECB) affects stock prices differently. A break in the ECB’s communication from 2016 onwards makes it necessary to adjust the identification of monetary policy surprises in the euro area. By modifying the high-frequency identification of monetary policy shocks in the euro area, I can show that two quantitative easing shocks occur per decision: One during the release and one during the press conference. Although the impact on policy rates is identical, the release window shock seems to have a more pronounced effect on stock prices.
    Keywords: Unconventional Monetary Policy, High-Frequency Data, ECB, Communication
    JEL: E44 E52 E58
    Date: 2022
  14. By: Ricardo Nunes; Ali K. Ozdagli; Jenny Tang
    Abstract: Interest rate surprises around FOMC announcements reveal both the surprise in the monetary policy stance (the pure policy shock) and interest rate movements driven by exogenous information about the economy from the central bank (the information shock). In order to disentangle the effects of these two shocks, we use interest rate changes on days of macroeconomic data releases. On these release dates, there are no pure policy shocks, which allows us to identify the impact of information shocks and thereby distill pure policy shocks from interest rate surprises around FOMC announcements. Our results show that there is a prominent central bank information component in the widely used high-frequency policy rate surprise measure that needs to be parsed out. When we remove this central bank information component, the estimated effects of monetary policy shocks are more pronounced relative to those estimated using the entire policy rate surprise.
    Keywords: monetary policy; central bank information; high-frequency identification; proxy structural VAR; external instruments
    JEL: C36 D83 E52 E58
    Date: 2022–01–01
  15. By: Luca Fornaro; Federica Romei
    Abstract: We study optimal monetary policy during times of exceptionally high global demand for tradable goods, relative to non-tradable services. The optimal monetary response entails a rise in inflation, which helps rebalance production toward the tradable sector. While the inflation costs are fully beared domestically, however, part of the gains in terms of higher supply of tradable goods spill over to the rest of the world. National central banks may thus fall into a coordination trap, and implement an excessively tight monetary policy during tradable goodsdriven recoveries.
    Keywords: Asymmetric shocks, reallocation, monetary policy, international monetary cooperation, inflation, global supply shortages
    JEL: E32 E44 E52 F41 F42
    Date: 2022–01
  16. By: Banerjee, Sudipto (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Dimri, Aditi (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)
    Abstract: Grievance redress mechanism (GRM) is an essential component of the consumer protection framework in the financial sector. Its presence and performance can have far-reaching effects on the participation of consumers in the financial sector. Using GRM a consumer can seek expeditious and fair remedy against the wrongs of the financial service providers. While there are various forms of GRM (both judicial and non-judicial), in this paper, we study the design of a non-judicial redress agency. Using first principles we study the design of a financial redress agency by focusing on the critical organisational decisions of - manner of establishment, governance, funding, dispute resolution processes, and performance evaluation. We build on two strands of literature, one studying the GRM design at a conceptual principles level and the other providing practical guidance for setting up a redress agency. Further, the paper analyses four different redress agencies, namely, - Financial Ombudsman Services Scheme in the U.K., Kifid in the Netherlands, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in the U.S., and Insurance and Financial Services Ombudsman Scheme in New Zealand. The paper contributes by assimilating all the varied resources to map principles, decisions, and case studies to provide an accessible yet comprehensive introduction to designing a GRM for a varied readership.
    Keywords: GRM ; redress agency ; financial ombudsman ; dispute resolution ; consumer protection in finance
    Date: 2022–01
  17. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The 2016–20 ECF/EFF helped rehabilitate Moldova’s banking sector, bolstering macro-financial stability. However, the COVID-19 pandemic, drought in 2020, and the ongoing surge in global energy prices, have slowed economic activity, intensified downside risks, and complicated policy making. While emergency financial assistance under a blended RCF/RFI (100 percent of quota) and SDR allocation (US$236 million) helped cushion the pandemic’s impact, Moldova remains among the poorest countries in Europe with long-standing governance and structural weaknesses inhibiting income convergence.
    Date: 2022–01–04

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