|
on Banking |
Issue of 2022‒01‒24
25 papers chosen by Sergio Castellanos-Gamboa, , Pontificia Universidad Javeriana |
By: | Martin Hodula; Ngoc Anh Ngo |
Abstract: | We examine whether macroprudential policy actions affect shadow bank lending. We use a large dataset covering 23 European Union countries and synthesize a narrow measure of shadow banking focused on capturing credit intermediation by non-banks. To address the endogeneity bias inherent to modelling of the effects of macroprudential policy on the financial sector, we consider a novel index of the macroprudential authority's strength in pursuing its goals and use it to instrument for a macroprudential policy variable in an IV estimation framework. We robustly demonstrate that following a macroprudential policy tightening, shadow bank lending increases. We harness the cross-sectional dimension of our data to show that the effect applies especially to low-capitalized banking sectors, where macroprudential policy is expected to be more binding, leading to credit reallocation from banks to non-banks. |
Keywords: | European Union, instrumental variables, macroprudential policy, non-bank lending, regulatory leakages |
JEL: | G21 G23 G28 |
Date: | 2021–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2021/5&r= |
By: | Václav Brož; Evžen Kocenda |
Abstract: | We analyze link between mortgage-related regulatory penalties levied on banks and the level of systemic risk in the U.S. banking industry. We employ a frequency decomposition of volatility spillovers (connectedness) to assess system-wide risk transmission with short-, medium-, and long-term dynamics. We find that after the possibility of a penalty is first announced to the public, long-term systemic risk among banks tends to increase. From the dynamic perspective, bank penalties represent an overlooked risk as they do not increase systemic risk immediately, but the risk accumulates and propagates over the long-term. In this respect, bank penalties resemble still waters that run deep. In contrast, a settlement with regulatory authorities leads to a decrease in the long-term systemic risk. Our analysis is robust with respect to a number of relevant criteria. |
Keywords: | bank, global financial crisis, mortgage penalty, systemic risk, financial stability |
JEL: | C14 C58 G14 G21 G28 K41 |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9463&r= |
By: | Anthony Brassil (Reserve Bank of Australia); Mike Major (Reserve Bank of Australia); Peter Rickards (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
Abstract: | We add a simplified banking sector to the RBA's macroeconometric model (MARTIN). How this banking sector interacts with the rest of the economy chiefly depends on the extent of loan losses. During small downturns, losses are absorbed by banks' profits and the resulting effect on the broader economy is limited to that caused by the lower shareholder returns (which is already part of MARTIN). During large downturns, loan losses reduce banks' capital, and banks respond by reducing their credit supply. This reduction in supply reduces housing prices, wealth and investment; thereby amplifying the downturn (which leads to further losses). Our state-dependent approach is a significant advance on the treatment of financial sectors within existing macroeconometric models. Having a banking sector in MARTIN allows us to explore important policy questions. In this paper, we show how the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the state of the economy. During large downturns, monetary policy is more effective than usual because it can reduce loan losses and therefore moderate any reduction in credit supply. But at low interest rates, the zero lower bound on retail deposit interest rates reduces policy effectiveness. We also investigate how one of the more pessimistic economic scenarios that could have resulted from COVID-19 might have affected the banking sector, and subsequently amplified the resulting downturn. |
Keywords: | banking; financial accelerator; macroeconomic model |
JEL: | E17 E44 E51 G21 |
Date: | 2022–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2022-01&r= |
By: | Pavel Chakraborty (Department Of Economics, Management School, Lancaster University); Nirvana Mitra (Department Of Economics, Shiv Nadar University) |
Abstract: | New liberalization policies are rapidly globalizing financial services in developing countries, but there is little or no microeconomic evidence on the impact of banking reforms on the real economy. We examine the impact of a banking sector reform, characterized by the introduction of new domestic private and/or foreign banks, on Indian manufacturing firms' access to credit, performance and the resulting misallocation in the Indian economy using a unique firm-bank matched data. We find that the introduction of new banks led to (i) increase in access to credit by 18|23% for big firms (top 25 percentile of size distribution); (ii) reduction in access to loans for small firms (bottom 25th percentile) by around 45%; and (iii) increase in profit, total sales for big firms. Next, we follow Hsieh and Klenow (2009) and estimate the distortions arising out of capital and output market and show that the banking reforms significantly relaxed the credit constraints only for the big and more productive firms, resulting in reduced capital market misallocation. Finally, our counterfactual experiment shows that the reallocation of credit led to an overall gain in manufacturing output by 0.15 - 1.1%. |
Keywords: | Banking Reforms, Private and/or Foreign Banks, Big Firms, Cream Skimming, Misallocation. |
JEL: | G1 G21 O47 L25 |
Date: | 2022–01–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:alr:wpaper:2022-01&r= |
By: | Viral V. Acharya; Simone Lenzu; Olivier Wang |
Abstract: | We build a model with heterogeneous firms and banks to analyze how policy affects credit allocation and long-term economic outcomes. When firms are hit by small negative shocks, conventional monetary policy can restore efficient bank lending and production by lowering interest rates. Large shocks, however, necessitate unconventional policy such as regulatory forbearance towards banks to stabilize the economy. Aggressive accommodation runs the risk of introducing zombie lending and a “diabolical sorting”, whereby low-capitalization banks extend new credit or evergreen existing loans to low-productivity firms. If shocks reduce the profitability gap between healthy and zombie firms, the optimal forbearance policy is non-monotone in the size of the shock. In a dynamic setting, policy aimed at avoiding short-term recessions can be trapped into protracted low rates and excessive forbearance, due to congestion externalities imposed by zombie lending on healthier firms. The resulting economic sclerosis delays the recovery from transitory shocks, and can even lead to permanent output losses. |
JEL: | E44 E52 G01 G21 G28 G33 |
Date: | 2021–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29606&r= |
By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
Abstract: | This paper examines whether economic policy uncertainty (EPU) reduces the level of financial inclusion. I predict that high EPU should have a negative effect on the level of financial inclusion. I argue that high EPU will discourage financial institutions from providing basic financial services to low end customers and unbanked adults, and this will lead to a decrease in the level of financial inclusion. Using a sample of 22 countries, I find that EPU does not have a significant impact on financial inclusion. None of the nine indicators of financial inclusion have a significant direct relationship with EPU. Also, I find some evidence that the combined effect of high EPU and high nonperforming loans reduces financial inclusion, particularly through bank branch contraction and a reduction in the use of electronic payments. Meanwhile, the use of formal accounts and credit cards increases in times of high credit supply and high EPU. |
Keywords: | Financial inclusion, policy uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty, business cycle, non-performing loan, cost efficiency, cost to income ratio, access to finance, formal account, credit cards, debit cards, mobile payments, electronic payment, borrowings, savings bank branch, unbanked adults. |
JEL: | E50 E52 E59 G21 I31 |
Date: | 2022 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:111052&r= |
By: | Knut Are Aastveit; Ragnar Enger Juelsrud; Ella Getz Wold |
Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of mortgage regulation on child and parent household balance sheets, highlighting important trade-offs in terms of financial vulnerability. Using Norwegian tax data, we show that loan-to-value caps reduce house purchase probabilities, debt and interest expenses – thereby improving household solvency. Moreover, parents of first-time buyers also reduce their debt uptake, suggesting that concerns about regulatory arbitrage are unwarranted. However, the higher downpayment requirement also leads to a persistent deterioration of household liquidity. We show that this reduction in liquid buffers coincides with larger house sale propensities given unemployment, as households become more vulnerable to adverse income shocks. |
Keywords: | Household leverage, Financial regulation, Macroprudential policy, Mortgage markets |
Date: | 2021–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bny:wpaper:0103&r= |
By: | Valentina Brailovskaya; Pascaline Dupas; Jonathan Robinson |
Abstract: | Digital credit has expanded rapidly in Africa, mostly in the form of short-term, high-interest loans offered via mobile money. Loan terms are often opaque and consumer financial literacy is low, providing opportunities for predatory lending. A regression discontinuity analysis shows no negative effect of access to digital loans on financial well-being, but the majority of borrowers fail to repay on time and incur high late fees. We randomize exposure to a short phone-based financial literacy intervention. The intervention improved knowledge and marginally improved loan repayment but increased loan demand, increasing overall default risk. |
JEL: | D14 O12 O16 |
Date: | 2021–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29573&r= |
By: | Congressional Budget Office |
Abstract: | The Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae), part of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, works to attract capital to the market for federally insured mortgages. To do that, it guarantees timely payment to investors on mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) that private financial institutions create from mortgages insured or guaranteed by other federal programs. |
JEL: | G21 G28 H81 |
Date: | 2022–01–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:57176&r= |
By: | Beck, Thorsten; Cecchetti, Stephen G.; Grothe, Magdalena; Kemp, Malcolm; Pelizzon, Loriana; Sánchez Serrano, Antonio |
Abstract: | This report discusses the impact of digitalization on the structure of the European banking system. The recent wave of financial innovation based on the opportunities digitalisation offers, however, has come mostly from outside the incumbent banking system in the form of new financial service providers, either in competition or cooperation with incumbent banks but with the potential for substantial disruption. After discussing how identified risks may evolve and the emergence of new sources of risks, the report introduces three different scenarios for the future European banking system: (i) incumbent banks continue their dominance; (ii) incumbent banks retrench; and (iii) central bank digital currencies (under certain specifications). It also derives macroprudential policy measures. |
Date: | 2022–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srk:srkasc:202212&r= |
By: | Beatriz González; Galo Nuño; Dominik Thaler; Silvia Albrizio |
Abstract: | We analyze monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous firms and financial frictions. Firms differ in their productivity and net worth and face collateral constraints that cause capital misallocation. TFP endogenously depends on the time-varying distribution of firms. Although a reduction in real rates increases misallocation in partial equilibrium, general-equilibrium effects overturn this result: a monetary expansion increases the investment of high-productivity firms relatively more than that of low-productivity ones, crowding out the latter and increasing TFP. We provide empirical evidence based on Spanish granular data supporting this mechanism. This has important implications for optimal monetary policy. We show how a central bank without pre-commitments engineers an unexpected monetary expansion to increase TFP in the medium run. In the event of a cost-push shock, the central bank leans with the wind to increase demand and reduce misallocation. |
Keywords: | monetary policy, firm heterogeneity, financial frictions, misallocation |
JEL: | E12 E22 E43 E52 L11 |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9465&r= |
By: | Ms. Deniz O Igan; Antoine Levy; Mr. Taehoon Kim |
Abstract: | State-contingent debt instruments such as GDP-linked warrants have garnered attention as a potential tool to help debt-stressed economies smooth repayments over business cycles, yet very few studies of the empirical properties of these instruments exist. This paper develops a general f ramework to estimate the time-varying risk premium of a state-contingent sovereign debt instrument. Our estimation framework applied to GDP-linked warrants issued by Argentina, Greece, and Ukraine reveals three stylized facts: (i) the risk premium in state-contingent instruments is high and persistent; (ii) the risk premium exhibits a pro-cyclical pattern; and (iii) the liquidity premium is higher and more volatile than that for plain-vanilla government bonds issued by the same sovereign. We then present a model in which investors fear ambiguity and that can account for the cyclical properties of the risk premium. |
Keywords: | State-contingent debt instruments; GDP-linked warrants; Risk premia; Procyclicality |
Date: | 2021–12–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/282&r= |
By: | Calista Cheung; Jerome Lyons; Bethany Madsen; Sarah Miller; Saarah Sheikh |
Abstract: | We construct an index that systematically measures and tracks the stringency of government policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic across Canadian provinces. Researchers can use this stringency index to analyze how the pandemic is affecting the economy. |
Keywords: | Business fluctuations and cycles; Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Domestic demand and components; Recent economic and financial developments; Regional economic developments |
JEL: | E20 H7 I18 R1 |
Date: | 2022–02 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:22-1&r= |
By: | Adam Copeland; Antoine Martin |
Abstract: | This paper uses new data to provide a comprehensive view of repo activity during the 2007-09 financial crisis for the first time. We show that activity declined much more in the bilateral segment of the market than in the tri-party segment. Surprisingly, we find that a large share of the decline in activity is driven by repos backed by Treasury securities. Further, a disproportionate share of the decline in repo activity is connected to securities dealer’s market-making activity in Treasury securities. In particular, the evidence suggests that at least part of the decline is not driven by clients pulling away from securities dealers because of counterparty credit concerns. |
Keywords: | repo; financial crisis; money markets |
JEL: | G01 G23 E42 |
Date: | 2021–12–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:93506&r= |
By: | Miglo, Anton |
Abstract: | This article analyzes the patterns of Fintech development in Greater Manchester, UK. Manchester is often called a northern capital of Fintech. We analyze different subsectors of FinTech and find that such sectors as payments, fintech loans, debt-based, reward-based and real-estate-based crowdfunding, big data analytics, data security, insurtech and regtech are the most growing areas. We also compare the Fintech structure in Manchester with that in London and other major cities in the UK and identify similarities and differences. |
Keywords: | FinTech, cryptocurrencies, digital finance, crowdfunding, Fintech in Manchester, data security |
JEL: | G00 G10 G32 O33 |
Date: | 2022–01–02 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:111348&r= |
By: | Romain Baeriswyl (Swiss National Bank); Kene Boun My (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Camille Cornand (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon) |
Abstract: | Central banks' disclosures, such as forward guidance, have a weaker effect on the economy in reality than in theoretical models. The present paper contributes to understanding how people pay attention and react to various sources of information. In a beauty-contest with information acquisition, we show that strategic complementarities give rise to a double overreaction to public disclosures by increasing agents equilibrium attention, which, in turn, increases the weight assigned to them in equilibrium action. A laboratory experiment provides evidence that the effect of strategic complementarities on the realised attention and the realised action is qualitatively consistent with theoretical predictions, though quantitatively weaker. Both the lack of attention to public disclosures and a limited level of reasoning by economic agents account for the weaker realised reaction. This suggests that it is just as important for a central bank to control reaction to public disclosures by swaying information acquisition by recipients as it is by shaping information disclosures themselves. |
Keywords: | Overreaction,Information acquisition,Beauty-contest,Central bank communication |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03468857&r= |
By: | Karel Musil; Stanislav Tvrz; Jan Vlcek |
Abstract: | The paper deals with the treatment of shocks in central banks' forecasts. Within the rational expectations (RE) concept, which is widely used in structural macroeconomic models, the paper highlights the differences between news and surprise shocks and argues that most shocks in central bank forecasts should be treated as news. The paper also points out some drawbacks of news shocks under the assumption of full information from the practical point of view of forecasting and policy decision-making at central banks. As a potential solution, the paper refers to the LIRE concept as introduced in Brazdik et al. (2020). The paper discusses the properties of the LIRE concept and finds it versatile and useful in dealing with news shocks without abandoning the RE framework. The paper concludes that LIRE can be effectively used for practical structural macroeconomic modelling. |
Keywords: | Anticipated shocks, conditional forecast, DSGE models, rational expectations |
JEL: | D58 D84 E37 E52 |
Date: | 2021–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:rpnrpn:2021/02&r= |
By: | Ruediger Bachmann; Isabel Gödl-Hanisch; Eric R. Sims |
Abstract: | We identify monetary policy shocks by exploiting variation in the central bank’s information set. To be specific, we use differences between nowcasts of the output gap and inflation with final, revised estimates of these series to isolate movements in the policy rate unrelated to economic conditions. We then compute the effects of a monetary policy shock on the aggregate economy using local projection methods. We find that a contractionary monetary policy shock has a limited negative effect on output but a persistent negative impact on prices. In contrast to alternative identification approaches, we do not observe a price puzzle when analyzing the period from 1987 to 2008. Further, we validate the identification approach in a simple New Keynesian model, augmented by the assumption that the central bank observes the ingredients of the Taylor rule with error. |
JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
Date: | 2021–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29572&r= |
By: | Mr. Daniel Leigh; Laurence M. Ball; Ms. Prachi Mishra; Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo |
Abstract: | Large price changes in industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have caused erratic fluctuations in the U.S. headline inflation rate. This paper compares alternative approaches to filtering out the transitory effects of these industry price changes and measuring the underlying or core level of inflation over 2020-2021. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of core, the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices (XFE), has performed poorly: over most of 2020-21, it is almost as volatile as headline inflation. Measures of core that exclude a fixed set of additional industries, such as the Atlanta Fed’s sticky-price inflation rate, have been less volatile, but the least volatile have been measures that filter out large price changes in any industry, such as the Cleveland Fed’s median inflation rate and the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean inflation rate. These core measures have followed smooth paths, drifting down when the economy was weak in 2020 and then rising as the economy has rebounded. Overall, we find that the case for the Federal Reserve to move away from the traditional XFE measure of core has strengthened during 2020-21. |
Keywords: | Inflation, business fluctuations, central banks. |
Date: | 2021–12–17 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/291&r= |
By: | Chris D'Souza; Jane Voll |
Abstract: | Many central banks conduct economic field research involving in-depth interviews with external parties. But very little is known about how this information is used and its importance in the formation of monetary policy. We address this gap in the literature through a thematic analysis of open-ended interviews with senior central bank economic and policy staff who work closely with policy decision-makers. We find that these central bankers consider information from field research programs not just useful but also an essential input for monetary policy making. They use this information in conjunction with quantitative tools primarily to inform their near-term forecasts. The information is considered most valuable at potential turning points in the economy when uncertainty about the pace of economic growth is heightened (in the advent of large shocks to the economy) and when timely official data are not available or are viewed as unreliable. Senior staff also place a high value on maintaining a reliable and credible sample of representative economic agents that can be accessed on an ongoing basis and very quickly when required. |
Keywords: | Business fluctuations and cycles; Monetary policy; Monetary policy and uncertainty |
JEL: | C83 E52 |
Date: | 2022–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:22-1&r= |
By: | International Monetary Fund |
Abstract: | The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) of Mexico intends to strengthen public asset and liability management (ALM) practices. The 2018 Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) identified several gaps in reporting public sector assets and liabilities and analysis of the associated risks. The authorities have identified the need for further reforms in three interrelated areas: (i) adopt the public sector balance sheet (PSBS) analytical framework to inform policy making; (ii) move toward more active cash management; and (iii) strengthen the management of financial assets and introduce a sovereign assets and liabilities management (SALM) framework in a phased manner. This report provides recommendations for reforms in these three areas. |
Date: | 2021–12–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/261&r= |
By: | Pierpaolo Grippa; Mr. Dimitri G Demekas |
Abstract: | There are demands on central banks and financial regulators to take on new responsibilities for supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy. Regulators can indeed facilitate the reorientation of financial flows necessary for the transition. But their powers should not be overestimated. Their diagnostic and policy toolkits are still in their infancy. They cannot (and should not) expand their mandate unilaterally. Taking on these new responsibilities can also have potential pitfalls and unintended consequences. Ultimately, financial regulators cannot deliver a low-carbon economy by themselves and should not risk being caught again in the role of ‘the only game in town.’ |
Keywords: | Financial stability, financial regulation, climate change, climate mitigation policy, low-carbon economy, energy transition, carbon price, green finance |
Date: | 2021–12–17 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/296&r= |
By: | International Monetary Fund |
Abstract: | The financial system in Chile functions well overall within a sound regulatory framework. It features large and deep financial markets in a sector dominated by conglomerates, six systemic banks, and pension funds. The twin shocks of social unrest in late 2019 and COVID-19 were adeptly managed thanks to massive and well-coordinated supervisory and fiscal policy responses, as well as unprecedented liquidity support from the Central Bank of Chile (BCCh). Banks have remained profitable through the crisis, partially supported by central bank financing and government-guaranteed SME lending. The funded pension system that has been instrumental in market deepening is under threat due in part to a series of withdrawals. Congress has also authorized life annuity liquidations. A major reorganization of the financial regulatory authorities has been finalized, and Basel III will be implemented starting in December 2021. |
Date: | 2021–12–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/262&r= |
By: | International Monetary Fund |
Abstract: | At the request of the authorities, a remote multi-topic statistics diagnostic mission for Uzbekistan took place during March 1–19, 2021.1 In close cooperation with officials of the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics (SSC), the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU), and the Ministry of Finance (MOF), the mission (i) assessed the collection, compilation, and dissemination practices for the datasets covered by the mission; (ii) identified key high-level priorities and developed a medium-term action plan for statistical improvement and the associated capacity development (CD) needs; and (iii) developed a roadmap for subscription to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). The mission covered the following topics: national accounts (NA) and prices, 2 government finance statistics (GFS) including public debt, external sector statistics (ESS), monetary and financial statistics (MFS), and SDDS subscription. |
Date: | 2021–12–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/258&r= |
By: | International Monetary Fund |
Abstract: | State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are a key part of Georgia’s economy, accounting for a significant portion of GDP, employment and public investment. They deliver critical services in important economic sectors, including gas, electricity, water and transportation. Improving their performance is a critical step in the path to becoming a high income country. Since 2012, the authorities have been taking concrete steps to address challenges arising from the SOE sector. Substantial progress has been achieved in disclosing fiscal risks arising from SOEs in the Fiscal Risk Statement; increasing the monitoring capacity at the Ministry of Finance (MoF) by establishing a Fiscal Risk Management Unit (FRMU); rationalizing the number of SOEs; sectorizing them in line with international statistical standards; partially unwinding the role of the Partnership Fund; and restructuring some specific SOEs. |
Date: | 2021–12–20 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/270&r= |