nep-ban New Economics Papers
on Banking
Issue of 2017‒03‒12
25 papers chosen by
Christian Calmès, Université du Québec en Outaouais

  1. The role of structural funding for stability in the German banking sector By Schupp, Fabian; Silbermann, Leonid
  2. The role of counterparty risk and asymmetric information in the interbank market By Cappelletti, Giuseppe; Guazzarotti, Giovanni
  3. Capital flows and the international credit channel By Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Julian di Giovanni; Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan; José-Luis Peydró; Mehmet Fatih Ulu
  4. Monetary policy and bank lending in a low interest rate environment: diminishing effectiveness? By Claudio Borio; Leonardo Gambacorta
  5. "Low-For-Long” Interest Rates and Banks' Interest Margins and Profitability: Cross-Country Evidence By Claessens, Stijn; Coleman, Nicholas; Donnelly, Michael
  6. Government guarantees and financial stability By Allen, Franklin; Carletti, Elena; Goldstein, Itay; Leonello, Agnese
  7. Bank Efficiency, Productivity and Convergence in EU countries: A Weighted Russell Directional Distance Model By Fujii, Hidemichi; Managi, Shunsuke; Matousek, Roman; Rughoo, Aarti
  8. It is time to separate money banks from credit banks in Italy By Michele Fratianni
  9. International spillovers and local credit cycles By Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Julian di Giovanni; Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan; Mehmet Fatih Ulu
  10. Impact of capital regulation on SMEs credit By Jose Felix Izquierdo; Santiago Muñoz; Ana Rubio; Camilo Ulloa
  11. A model of bank behaviour for the assessment of the potential balance sheet impact of the NSFR liquidity requirement By Péter Lang
  12. How Wise Are Crowd? A Comparative Study of Crowd and Institutions in Peer-to-Business Online Lending Markets By Mohammadi, Ali; Shafi, Kourosh
  13. The Lack of Persistence of Interest Rate Changes on Banks’ Lending and Risk Taking Behaviour By Nektarios A. Michail; Demetris Koursaros; Christos S. Savva
  14. The impact of regulatory requirements on the banking flows to emerging countries By Samira Hellou; Michel Boutillier
  15. Regional Banking Instability and FOMC Voting By Eichler, Stefan; Lähner, Tom; Noth, Felix
  16. I’ve Got the Power: Mapping Connections between Lebanon’s Banking Sector and the Ruling Class By Jad Chaaban
  17. Central Bank Transparency and Cross-Border Banking By Littke, Helge C. N.; Eichler, Stefan; Tonzer, Lena
  18. Are Larger Banks Valued More Highly? By Bernadette A. Minton; René M. Stulz; Alvaro G. Taboada
  19. Democracy and Credit “Democracy Doesn`t Come Cheap” But At Least Credit to Its Corporations Will Be By Delis, Manthos; Hasan, Iftekhar; Ongena, Steven
  20. Bank Profitability: Good for Growth? By Paul-Olivier KLEIN; Laurent WEILL
  21. The effect of house prices on household borrowing: a new approach By Cloyne, James; Huber, Kilian; Ilzetzki, Ethan; Kleven, Henrik
  22. Cutting the Credit Line: Evidence from Germany By Nitsch, Volker
  23. Optimal Bank Capital Requirements: An Asymmetric Information Perspective By Berardi, Simone; Marcelletti, Alessandra
  24. Macroprudential Policies in Peru: The effects of Dynamics Provisioning and Conditional Reserve Requirements By Cabello, Miguel; Lupú, José; Minaya, Elías
  25. Bank Lending to the Private Sector and GDP Growth: Thresholds and Returns By Demetris Koursaros; Nektarios A. Michail; Christos S. Savva

  1. By: Schupp, Fabian; Silbermann, Leonid
    Abstract: We analyze whether, and if so by how much, stable funding would have contributed to the financial soundness of German banks in the time period between 1995 and 2013, before the Basel III liquidity regulation to address excessive maturity mismatches in the wake of the financial crisis via the Net Stable Funding Ratio can be expected to have been fully implemented. Using a dataset that contains information on critical events of German banks, we find that financing loans using fewer customer deposits would have been associated with a higher probability of financial distress for savings banks and credit cooperatives. A one percent rise in the loanto-deposit ratio from 1995 to 2013 corresponds to an increase in the probability of experiencing a critical event, implying approximately two additional savings banks and two additional credit cooperatives in financial distress. No such effect can be detected for commercial banks (excluding big banks), which are found to be far more heterogeneous with respect to their business models.
    Keywords: banks,financial distress,stable funding,Basel III liquidity regulation,NSFR,financial stability,panel data,random effects logit
    JEL: G21 G28 C23 C25
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Cappelletti, Giuseppe; Guazzarotti, Giovanni
    Abstract: We study the effect of counterparty risk on the ability of Italian banks to access the foreign unsecured interbank market during the sovereign debt crisis in the second half of 2011. With the onset of the crisis, interest rates in the Italian interbank market soared and foreign lending decreased significantly. To isolate the effect of the rise in counterparty risk, we compare the funding of Italian banks with that of foreign banks? branches and subsidiaries in Italy, which were presumably unaffected by the sovereign crisis insofar as they could count on the actual or potential support of their parent bank. We find that the rise in counterparty risk substantially decreased the probability of obtaining funds from foreign banks. When the analysis is restricted to Italian and foreign banks with relatively comparable asset compositions, the result holds. In addition, where safer banks or more stable lending relationships are involved the effect is attenuated. JEL Classification: G21, G28, C23, C24
    Keywords: counterparty risk, financial crisis, interbank market
    Date: 2017–02
  3. By: Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Julian di Giovanni; Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan; José-Luis Peydró; Mehmet Fatih Ulu
    Abstract: We examine the role of the international credit channel in Turkey over 2005-2013. We show that larger, more capitalised banks with higher non-core liabilities increase credit supply when capital inflows are higher. This result is stronger for domestic banks relative to foreign banks and survives during the crisis period of post 2008, when foreign banks in general stop lending in emerging markets and retreat to their home countries. By decomposing capital inflows into bank and non-bank flows, we show the importance of domestic banks' external borrowing for domestic credit growth.
    Keywords: Capital Flows, Bank-Lending Channel, Bank Heterogeneity.
    JEL: E0 F0 F1
    Date: 2017–01
  4. By: Claudio Borio; Leonardo Gambacorta
    Abstract: This paper analyses the effectiveness of monetary policy on bank lending in a low interest rate environment. Based on a sample of 108 large international banks, our empirical analysis suggests that reductions in short-term interest rates are less effective in stimulating bank lending growth when rates reach a very low level. This result holds after controlling for business and financial cycle conditions and different bank-specific characteristics such as liquidity, capitalisation, funding costs, bank risk and income diversification. We find that the impact of low rates on the profitability of banks' traditional intermediation activity helps explain the subdued evolution of lending in the period 2010-14.
    Keywords: bank lending, monetary transmission mechanisms, low interest rate environment
    Date: 2017–02
  5. By: Claessens, Stijn; Coleman, Nicholas; Donnelly, Michael
    Abstract: Interest rates in many advanced economies have been low for almost a decade now and are often expected to remain so. This creates challenges for banks. Using a sample of 3,385 banks from 47 countries from 2005 to 2013, we find that a one percentage point interest rate drop implies an 8 basis points lower net interest margin, with this effect greater (20 basis points) at low rates. Low rates also adversely affect bank profitability, but with more variation. And for each additional year of “low for long†, margins and profitability fall by another 9 and 6 basis points, respectively.
    Keywords: Bank profitability; interest rates; Low-for-long; Net interest margin
    JEL: E43 G21
    Date: 2017–02
  6. By: Allen, Franklin; Carletti, Elena; Goldstein, Itay; Leonello, Agnese
    Abstract: Banks are intrinsically fragile because of their role as liquidity providers. This results in under- provision of liquidity. We analyze the effect of government guarantees on the interconnection between banks? liquidity creation and likelihood of runs in a model of global games, where banks? and depositors? behavior are endogenous and affected by the amount and form of guarantee. The main insight of our analysis is that guarantees are welfare improving because they induce banks to improve liquidity provision although in a way that sometimes increases the likelihood of runs or creates distortions in banks? behavior. JEL Classification: G21, G28
    Keywords: bank moral hazard, fundamental runs, government guarantees, panic runs
    Date: 2017–02
  7. By: Fujii, Hidemichi; Managi, Shunsuke; Matousek, Roman; Rughoo, Aarti
    Abstract: The objective of this study is three-fold. First we estimate and analyse bank efficiency and productivity changes in the EU28 countries with the application of a novel approach, a weighted Russell directional distance model. Second, we take a disaggregated approach and analyse the contribution of the individual bank inputs on bank efficiency and productivity growth. Third, we test for convergence in EU28 bank productivity as well as in the inefficiency of individual bank inputs. We find that bank efficiency has been undermined by the financial crisis in banks notably from the EU15 countries. We also argue that bank efficiency and productivity in EU countries vary across the banking sector with banks from the ‘old’ EU showing higher efficiency levels. Nonetheless, a noticeable catching up process is observed for banks from the ‘new’ EU countries. Consequently, we do not find evidence of group convergence for bank productivity but there is evidence of convergence in bank efficiency change and technical change among the EU28 countries throughout the period 2005-2014. The driving force seems to be convergent technical change from the old EU Member States’ banks. On the other hand, almost no convergence is detected for the banks’ individual inputs while the transition paths show heightened diversity during the crisis years.
    Keywords: European Union; Bank Efficiency; Convergence
    JEL: F65 G21 O4
    Date: 2017–03
  8. By: Michele Fratianni (Indiana University, Kelly School of Business, Bloomington US, Univ. Politecnica Marche and MoFiR)
    Abstract: This paper argues that the Italian banking system would benefit from a profound restructuring achieved by separating safe banks, or money banks, from credit banks. The former would accept demandable deposits to be fully collateralized by a combination of monetary base and interestrate- and-credit-risk-free assets. The latter would fund illiquid loans with equities and long-dated debt obligations. The money bank would fulfill the objective of fully protecting savings in the form of money without the necessity of heavy regulation. The risky bank, the credit bank, would not be exposed to liquidity crises because one cannot run against long-dated bonds and equity. The credit bank, which is subject to insolvency risk, would bear a more intense regulatory and supervision structure than the money bank.
    Keywords: Chicago Plan, money bank, credit bank, regulation, too big to fail
    JEL: E42 E51 E52
    Date: 2017–02
  9. By: Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Julian di Giovanni; Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan; Mehmet Fatih Ulu
    Abstract: We show that capital inflows are important drivers of domestic credit cycles using a firm-bank-loan level dataset for a representative emerging market. Instrumenting inflows by changes in global risk appetite (VIX), we find that a fall in VIX leads to a large decline in real borrowing rates and an expansion in credit supply. Estimates explain 40% of observed cyclical corporate credit growth. The OLS-elasticity of interest rates vis-à-vis capital inflows is smaller than the IV-elasticity. Banks with higher noncore funding offer relatively lower rates to low net worth firms, but do not extend more credit to them given collateral constraints.
    Keywords: Capital Flows, VIX, Risk Premium, Bank Credit, Firm Heterogeneity
    JEL: E0 F0 F1
    Date: 2017–02
  10. By: Jose Felix Izquierdo; Santiago Muñoz; Ana Rubio; Camilo Ulloa
    Abstract: The Supporting Factor was introduced in Basel III with the aim of avoiding a reduction in the flow of new credit to SMEs, and the CRR revision published in November 2016 even proposes enlarging its scope to exposures above €1.5bn (but with a lower parameter).
    Keywords: Financial regulation , Spain , Working Paper
    JEL: G20 G21
    Date: 2017–01
  11. By: Péter Lang (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))
    Abstract: This paper provides a framework to examine the potential balance sheet adjustments of individual financial institutions for complying with the NSFR liquidity requirement. The suggested approach, which is also flexible enough to be applied in assessing the potential balance sheet impact of other regulatory proposals affecting the balance sheet of financial institutions, is an optimum model of bank behaviour, in which a bank statically rearranges its observed balance sheet by maximizing its profit with respect to constraints representing the balance sheet equality and various regulatory measures. According to our results, banks react to the introduction of the NSFR by strongly increasing their high-quality liquid assets, as well as fundamentally altering their short-term interbank funding to long-term. In addition, assuming no market frictions in the market for long-term funding from financial institutions, lending to the real economy decreases rather moderately as a consequence of the measure.
    Keywords: NSFR, liquidity regulation, optimisation, Basel III.
    JEL: C33 C36 C61 G21 G28
    Date: 2017
  12. By: Mohammadi, Ali (Department of Industrial Economics and Management, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies (CESIS) and Swedish house of finance.); Shafi, Kourosh (Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation Warrington College of Business, University of Florida.)
    Abstract: Funding small businesses used to be the exclusive domain of angel investors, venture capitalists, and banks. Crowd have only recently been recognized as an alternative source of financing. Whereas some have attributed great potential to the funding provided by crowd (“crowdfunding”), others have clearly been more skeptical. We join this debate by examining the performance of crowd to screen the creditworthiness of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) compared with institutions in the context of new online peer-to- business lending markets. Exploiting the randomized assignment of originated loans to institutions and the crowd in the online peer-to-business platform of FundingCircle, we find that crowd underperform institutions in screening SMEs, thereby failing to lend at interest rates that adjust for the likelihood of defaulting on a loan. Moreover, the underperformance gap of crowd compared with institutions widens with risky and small loans, suggesting that crowd lack the expertise to assess the risks or the incentive to expend resources to perform due diligence. Overall, our findings highlight when crowd face limitations in screening SMEs.
    Keywords: peer-to-peer lending; institutional investors; online loan market; SME; wisdom of the crowd
    JEL: D80 G11 G20
    Date: 2017–03–03
  13. By: Nektarios A. Michail (Central Bank of Cyprus); Demetris Koursaros (Cyprus University of Technology); Christos S. Savva (Cyprus University of Technology)
    Abstract: Using the shock persistence methodology of Lee, Pesaran and Pierse (1992), we examine whether monetary policy has persistent effects on bank lending behaviour, both directly through the credit channel and indirectly through the risk-taking and liquidity channels. The findings suggest that policy actions aimed at affecting credit risk and bank lending will not have any persistent effects if only the interest rate is employed. Macro-prudential policy should focus on other factors which affect lending decisions, notably the liquidity channel which appears to be an important determinant of the level of lending.
    Keywords: bank lending, persistence, euro area, monetary policy, interest rate
    JEL: E52 E58 E44
    Date: 2016–02
  14. By: Samira Hellou; Michel Boutillier
    Abstract: The strengthening of regulatory requirements, along with evolution in banking regulations, can have a negative impact on the external bank financing of emerging countries heavily dependent on this type of financing. Indeed, several studies have aroused fears about the potential effects of significant regulatory adjustments on bank lending to emerging markets. This paper presents a trial to estimate the sensitivity of the banking flows to increased regulatory requirements. We adopt a macroeconomic approach based on the determinants of cross-border banking claims flows from banks located in 19 developed countries to 37 emerging countries. The results of the GMM estimation confirm the negative impact of regulatory requirements on the banking flows to emerging countries, the positive impact of business openness and the significant effect of bank financialization on banking flows to these countries. The results also show that countries rated as speculative grade are influenced by the regulatory requirements, unlike countries rated in investment grade category.
    Keywords: Banking flows, emerging countries, pull and push factors, regulatory requirements.
    JEL: F21 F34 G18
    Date: 2017
  15. By: Eichler, Stefan; Lähner, Tom; Noth, Felix
    Abstract: This study analyzes if regionally affiliated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members take their districts’ regional banking sector instability into account when they vote. Considering the period 1978–2010, we find that a deterioration in a district’s bank health increases the probability that this district’s representative in the FOMC votes to ease interest rates. According to member-specific characteristics, the effect of regional banking sector instability on FOMC voting behavior is most pronounced for Bank presidents (as opposed to Governors) and FOMC members who have career backgrounds in the financial industry or who represent a district with a large banking sector.
    JEL: E43 E52 E58
    Date: 2016
  16. By: Jad Chaaban (American University of Beirut)
    Abstract: This paper explores the extent to which local commercial banks in Lebanon are linked to the country’s political class, and how this impacts their efficiency and sovereign risk exposure. By compiling detailed ownership and political affiliation data on the major 20 commercial banks in 2014, the paper shows that as much as 18 out of the 20 banks have major shareholders linked to political elites, and 43% of assets in the sector could be attributed to political control. “Crony capital” within the banking sector is also shown to impact the quality of banks’ loans, and their exposure to public debt.
    Date: 2016–10–26
  17. By: Littke, Helge C. N.; Eichler, Stefan; Tonzer, Lena
    Abstract: We analyze the effect of central bank transparency on cross-border bank activities. Based on a panel gravity model for cross-border bank claims for 21 home and 47 destination countries from 1998 to 2010, we find strong empirical evidence that central bank transparency in the destination country on average increases cross-border claims. Using interaction models, we find that the positive effect of central bank transparency on cross-border claims is only significant if the central bank is politically independent. Central bank transparency and credibility are thus considered as complements by banks investing abroad.
    JEL: E58 F30 G15
    Date: 2016
  18. By: Bernadette A. Minton; René M. Stulz; Alvaro G. Taboada
    Abstract: We investigate whether the value of large banks, defined as banks with assets in excess of the Dodd-Frank threshold for enhanced supervision, increases with the size of their assets using Tobin’s q and market-to-book as our valuation measures. Many argue that large banks receive subsidies from the regulatory safety net, so they should be worth more and their valuation should increase with size. Instead, using a variety of approaches, we find (1) no evidence that large banks are valued more highly, (2) strong cross-sectional evidence that the valuation of large banks falls with size, and (3) strong evidence of a within-bank negative relation between valuation and size for large banks from 1987 to 2006 but not when the post-Dodd-Frank period is included in the sample. The negative relation between bank value and bank size for large banks cannot be systematically explained by differences in ROA or ROE, equity volatility, tail risk, distress risk, and equity discount rates. However, we find that banks with more trading assets are worth less. A 1% increase in trading assets is associated with a Tobin’s q lower by 0.2% in regressions with year and bank fixed effects. This relation between bank value and trading assets helps explain the cross-sectional negative relation between large bank valuation and size. Our results hold when we use instrumental variables for bank size.
    JEL: G02 G21 G28 G3
    Date: 2017–03
  19. By: Delis, Manthos; Hasan, Iftekhar; Ongena, Steven
    Abstract: Does democratization reduce the cost of credit? Using global syndicated loan data from 1984 to 2014, we show that democratization has a sizeable negative effect on loan spreads: a one point increase in the zero-to-ten Polity IV index of democracy shaves on average 21 basis points off spreads. Reversals to autocracy hike spreads more strongly. Our results are robust to the comprehensive inclusion of relevant controls, to the instrumentation with regional waves of democratization, and to a battery of sensitivity tests. We thus highlight the lower cost of loans as one relevant mechanism through which democratization may affect economic development.
    Keywords: Democratic Institutions; Loan pricing; Loan Spreads; Reversals
    JEL: G21 G30 P16 P26 P27 P47
    Date: 2017–02
  20. By: Paul-Olivier KLEIN (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg); Laurent WEILL (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to provide the first investigation of the impact of bank profitability on economic growth. While bank profitability can be pro-growth by fostering financial stability, it can also result from lower competition which reduce access to credit and diminish economic growth. We analyze the impact of bank profitability on economic growth using a sample of 133 countries for the period 1999-2013. Our findings support the view that bank profitability fosters economic growth. Additional tests confirm the robustness of this conclusion. Thus, measures that favor bank profitability are growth-enhancing.
    Keywords: bank profitability, financial development, economic growth, finance-growth nexus.
    JEL: G21 O16 O40
    Date: 2017
  21. By: Cloyne, James (UC Davis); Huber, Kilian (London school of Economics); Ilzetzki, Ethan (London School of Economics); Kleven, Henrik (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: We investigate the effect of house prices on household borrowing using administrative mortgage data from the United Kingdom and a new empirical approach. The data contain household-level information on house prices and borrowing in a panel of homeowners, who refinance at regular and quasi-exogenous intervals. The data and setting allow us to develop an empirical approach that exploits house price variation coming from idiosyncratic and exogenous timing of refinance events around the Great Recession. We present two main results. First, there is a clear and robust effect of house prices on borrowing, but the responsiveness is smaller than recent US estimates. Second, the effect of house prices on borrowing can be explained largely by collateral effects. We study the collateral channel in two ways: through a multivariate heterogeneity analysis of proxies for collateral and wealth effects, and through a test that exploits interest rate notches that depend on housing collateral.
    Keywords: House prices; household borrowing; collateral channel
    JEL: D14 E21 E32 E43 E51 G21
    Date: 2017–02–24
  22. By: Nitsch, Volker
    Abstract: The massive decline in international trade in 2008/09 is often attributed to the global deterioration in financial conditions after the bankruptcy of a US investment bank, Lehman Brothers. This paper examines the association between external finance and firm activity in Germany in more detail. In particular, we explore a novel data set that matches a full sample of quarterly bank-firm lending data with detailed information on borrowers and lenders. Our results indicate that foreign sales of German non-financial corporations are insensitive to variations in external finance. While German banks affected by the crisis have significantly reduced their credit supply, we only observe a causal (negative) effect on their clients’ domestic sales. Exporting firms, in contrast, seem to be particularly good borrowers.
    JEL: F40 G21 E44
    Date: 2016
  23. By: Berardi, Simone (LUISS School of European Political Economy); Marcelletti, Alessandra (LUISS School of European Political Economy)
    Abstract: The issue on the amount of capital banks should hold has pushed back the debate on top of policymakers' agenda. Literature on this field mainly focuses on how to prevent banks from gaming risk-weighted capital requirements. The analysis has provided different types of solutions, such as the introduction of penalties and complementary use of risk-sensitive capital requirements and leverage ratio. Although the majority of theoretical papers rely on an asymmetric information framework, only one source of asymmetry is taken into account. The paper fills this gap by studying how to implement a socially optimal regulation scheme that simultaneously faces moral hazard and adverse selection problems. Including both sources of asymmetry is crucial because of the supervisor's inability to distinguish between risk profiles and misconduct (risk-shifting behavior) of banks.
    Keywords: bank capital requirements; bank regulation; moral hazard; adverse selection
    JEL: D81 G21 G28
    Date: 2017–03–07
  24. By: Cabello, Miguel (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú); Lupú, José (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú); Minaya, Elías (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)
    Abstract: In the last decade, the banking credit has grown significantly in Peru, a partial dollarized economy. That imposed some challenges to the financial regulators to mitigate the risks derived from both excessive economic growth and currency mismatches of banks debtors. This document assesses the effectiveness of two macroprudential measures implemented by the financial regulators: dynamic provisioning and conditional reserve requirements. By using a credit register data, there is evidence that dynamic provisioning has a dampening impact on commercial credit growth. Moreover, mortgage dollarization has declined more rapidly after the implementation of the Conditional Reserve Requirement scheme, but there is no clear evidence about its impact on banks assets quality. In the case of dynamic provisioning, its effect over non-performing loans is asymmetric.
    Date: 2017–02
  25. By: Demetris Koursaros (Cyprus University of Technology); Nektarios A. Michail (Central Bank of Cyprus); Christos S. Savva (Cyprus University of Technology)
    Abstract: We examine the relationship between lending to the private sector and GDP growth using a two-period model and test model conclusions through a Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation (STCC) model for the G7 countries. Theory suggests that the correlation between private lending and growth is positive and this relationship exhibits diminishing returns after a threshold. The empirical exercise confirms that this relationship holds, and while thresholds exist for most countries, the correlation between private lending and growth is never negative. Overall, the evidence indicates that policy should not emphasise the level of lending but its allocation in the economy.
    Keywords: private debt, correlation, bank lending, threshold, policy
    JEL: E51 E60 C32
    Date: 2016–02

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