New Economics Papers
on Banking
Issue of 2013‒07‒05
eight papers chosen by
Christian Calmès, Université du Québec en Outaouais

  1. A realistic bridge towards European banking union By Nicolas Véron
  2. The Meaning of Probability of Default for Asset-backed Loans By David Chisholm; Graham Andersen
  3. Bailouts, Time Inconsistency, and Optimal Regulation By V.V. Chari; Patrick J. Kehoe
  4. Independent service operators in ATM markets By Wenzel, Tobias
  5. Real Estate Valuation, Current Account and Credit Growth Patterns, Before and After the 2008-9 Crisis By Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak
  6. Identificando a Demanda e a Oferta de Crédito Bancário no Brasil By Mario Jorge Mendonça; Adolfo Sachsida
  7. Money Market Rates and Retail Interest Regulation in China: The Disconnect between Interbank and Retail Credit Conditions By Nathan Porter; TengTeng Xu
  8. Generational Risk – Is It a Big Deal?: Simulating an 80-Period OLG Model with Aggregate Shocks By Jasmina Hasanhodzic; Laurence J. Kotlikoff

  1. By: Nicolas Véron
    Abstract: New obstacles to the European banking union have emerged over the last year, but a successful transition remains both necessary and possible. The key next step will be in the second half of 2014, when the European Central Bank (ECB) will gain supervisory authority over most of Europeâ??s banking system. This needs to be preceded by a rigorous balance sheet assessment that is likely to trigger significant bank restructuring, for which preparation has barely started. It will be much more significant than current discussions about a bank resolution directive and bank recapitalisation by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The 2014 handover, and a subsequent change in the European treaties that will establish the robust legal basis needed for a sustainable banking union, together define the policy sequence as a bridge that can allow Europe to cross the choppy waters that separate it from a steady-state banking policy framework.
    Date: 2013–06
  2. By: David Chisholm; Graham Andersen
    Abstract: The authors examine the concept of probability of default for asset-backed loans. In contrast to unsecured loans it is shown that probability of default can be defined as either a measure of the likelihood of the borrower failing to make required payments, or as the likelihood of an insufficiency of collateral value on foreclosure. Assuming expected loss is identical under either definition, this implies a corresponding pair of definitions for loss given default. Industry treatment of probability of default for asset-backed loans appears to inconsistently blend the two types of definition. The authors develop a mathematical treatment of asset-backed loans which consistently applies each type of definition in a framework to produce the same expected loss and allows translation between the two frameworks.
    Date: 2013–06
  3. By: V.V. Chari; Patrick J. Kehoe
    Abstract: We develop a model in which, in order to provide managerial incentives, it is optimal to have costly bankruptcy. If benevolent governments can commit to their policies, it is optimal not to interfere with private contracts. Such policies are time inconsistent in the sense that, without commitment, governments have incentives to bail out firms by buying up the debt of distressed firms and renegotiating their contracts with managers. From an ex ante perspective, however, such bailouts are costly because they worsen incentives and thereby reduce welfare. We show that regulation in the form of limits on the debt-to-value ratio of firms mitigates the time-inconsistency problem by eliminating the incentives of governments to undertake bailouts. In terms of the cyclical properties of regulation, we show that regulation should be tightest in aggregate states in which resources lost to bankruptcy in the equilibrium without a government are largest.
    JEL: E0 E44 E6 E61
    Date: 2013–06
  4. By: Wenzel, Tobias
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of entry of non-banks (termed Independent Service Operators, ISOs) into ATM markets. We compare two different regimes by which the ISO may generate income: i) The ISO receives interchange fees and ii) the ISO charges consumers directly. We find that due to the entry of an ISO the size of the total ATM network increases independent of the way the ISO is financed. Account fees increase if the ISO receives interchange fees and decrease if the ISO charges consumers directly. Consumers may not benefit from the entry of the ISO. If a regulator can control the interchange fee, entry by an ISO financed through interchange fees increases consumer surplus, while the entry of a surcharging ISO decreases consumer surplus. --
    Keywords: Banking,ATM networks,Investment
    JEL: L11 L13
    Date: 2013
  5. By: Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak
    Abstract: This paper explores the stability of the key conditioning variables accounting for the real estate valuation before and after the crisis of 2008-9, in a panel of 36 countries, for the period of 2005:I -2012:IV, recognizing the crisis break. Our paper validates the robustness of the association between real estate valuation of lagged current account patterns, both before and after the crisis. The most economically significant variable in accounting for real estate valuation changes turned out to be the lagged real estate valuation appreciation (real estate inflation minus CPI inflation), followed by changes of the current account deficit/GDP, domestic credit/GDP, and equity market valuation appreciation (equity market appreciation minus CPI inflation). The first three effects are economically substantial: a one standard deviation increase in lagged real estate appreciation is associated with a 10 % increase in the present real estate appreciation, much larger than the impact of a one standard deviation increase in the current account deficit (5%) and of the domestic credit/GDP growth (3%). Thus, the results are supportive of both current account and credit growth channels, with the animal-spirits and momentum channels playing the most important role in the boom and bust of real estate valuation.
    JEL: F15 F21 F32 R21 R31
    Date: 2013–06
  6. By: Mario Jorge Mendonça; Adolfo Sachsida
    Abstract: Este estudo tem como objetivo estimar o sistema de oferta e demanda de crédito bancário no Brasil. O entendimento de como se dá o equilíbrio neste mercado é fundamental, pois somente assim é possível avançar na discussão sobre a importância do canal de crédito. Com base no emprego de dados agregados, entre junho de 2000 e agosto de 2012, para os segmentos de crédito de pessoa física (PF) e pessoa jurídica (PJ) pode-se observar os seguintes resultados. Primeiro, a demanda por crédito é prócíclica,reagindo negativamente ao desemprego e positivamente ao PIB. Segundo, a elasticidade-preço da demanda para PJ é maior do que a obtida para PF, corroborando o fato de que as empresas podem dispor de outras fontes de financiamento. Em terceiro lugar, não foi possível determinar a curva de oferta de crédito para PF. Este fato parece indicar que não existe causalidade reversa, no sentido de que nesta categoria a demanda não exerce impacto sobre a taxa de empréstimo. Em quarto lugar, observam-se os sinais esperados para a inadimplência, a taxa de captação, e inflação nas funções de oferta de crédito em ambos os segmentos. Por fim, constata-se que a introdução do crédito consignado no segmento de PF fez cair o custo do empréstimo. This study aims to estimate the system of bank credit demand and supply in Brazil. Understanding how the balance is established in this market is the key to know the importance of the credit channel. Based on the aggregated data from June 2000 to August 2012 not only for firms but also for individuals we founded the following results. First, credit demand is pro-cyclical, reacting negatively to the unemployment and positively to GDP. Second, the price elasticity of demand for firms is higher for firms than for individuals, corroborating the fact that companies may have other sources of funding.Thirdly, it was not possible to determine the bank credit supply to individuals. This fact seems to indicate that there is no reverse causality in the personnel credit in the sense that, for this segment, the credit demand has no effect on the loan rate. Fourth,i. The versions in English of the abstracts of this series have not been edited by Ipea’s editorial department. As versões em língua inglesa das sinopses (abstracts) desta coleção não são objeto de revisão pelo Editorial do Ipea. we observe the expected signs into default, the cost of funding and inflation in creditsupply function in both segments. Finally, it appears that the introduction of payroll loans on personnel credit brought down the cost of the loan. Keywords: credit demand and supply; bank lending channel; balance sheet channel;
    Date: 2013–06
  7. By: Nathan Porter; TengTeng Xu
    Abstract: Interest rates in China are composed of a mix of both market-determined interest rates (interbank rates and bond yields), and regulated interest rates (retail lending and deposit rates), reflecting China’s gradual process of interest rate liberalization. This paper investigates the main drivers of China’s interbank rates by developing a stylized theoretical model of China’s interbank market and estimating an EGARCH model for 7-day interbank repo rates. Our empirical findings suggest that movements in administered interest rates (part of the People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy toolkit) are important determinants of market-determined interbank rates, in both levels and volatility. The announcement effects of reserve requirement changes also influence interbank rates, as well as liquidity injections from open market operations in recent years. Our results indicate that the regulation of key retail interest rates influences the behaviour of marketdetermined interbank rates, which may have limited their independence as price signals. Further deposit rate liberalization should allow short-term interbank rates to play a more effective role as the primary indirect monetary policy tool.
    Keywords: Development economics; Econometric and statistical methods; Financial markets; Monetary policy framework; Transmission of monetary policy
    JEL: E43 E52 E58 C22
    Date: 2013
  8. By: Jasmina Hasanhodzic; Laurence J. Kotlikoff
    Abstract: The theoretical literature on generational risk assumes that this risk is large and that the government can effectively share it. To assess these assumptions, this paper calibrates and simulates 80-period, 40-period, and 20-period overlapping generations (OLG) life-cycle models with aggregate productivity shocks. Previous solution methods could not handle large-scale OLG models such as ours due to the well-known curse of dimensionality. The prior state of the art uses sparse-grid methods to handle 10 to 30 periods depending on the model's realism. Other methods used to solve large-scale, multi- period life-cycle models rely on either local approximations or summary statistics of state variables. We employ and extend a recent algorithm by Judd, Maliar, and Maliar (2009, 2011), which restricts the state space to the model's ergodic set. This limits the required computation and effectively banishes the dimensionality curse in models like ours. We find that intrinsic generational risk is quite small, that government policies can produce generational risk, and that bond markets can help share generational risk. We also show that a bond market can mitigate risk-inducing government policy. Our simulations produce very small equity premia for three reasons. First, there is relatively little intrinsic generational risk. Second, aggregate shocks hit both the young and the old in similar ways. And third, artificially inducing risk between the young and the old via government policy elicits more net supply as well as more net demand for bonds, by the young and the old respectively, leaving the risk premium essentially unchanged. Our results hold even in the presence of rare disasters, very high risk aversion, persistent productivity shocks, and stochastic depreciation. They echo other findings in the literature suggesting that macroeconomic fluctuations are too small to have major microeconomic consequences.
    JEL: E0
    Date: 2013–06

This issue is ©2013 by Christian Calmès. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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