New Economics Papers
on Banking
Issue of 2008‒08‒06
nine papers chosen by
Roberto J. Santillán–Salgado, EGADE-ITESM

  1. An Integrated Model for Liquidity Management andShort-Term Asset Allocation in Commercial Banks By Wenersamy Ramos de Alcântara
  2. Innovation in Banking and Excessive Loan Growth By Alexander F. Tieman; Daniel C. L. Hardy
  3. Consumer switching costs and firm pricing: evidence from bank pricing of deposit accounts By Timothy H. Hannan
  4. The British tripartite financial supervision system in the face of the Northern Rock run By Sharon Blei
  5. Bank Recycling of Petro Dollars to Emerging Market Economies During the Current Oil Price Boom By Johannes Wiegand
  6. Credit Matters: Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages By Ola Melander; Tamim Bayoumi
  7. Do Women Pay More for Credit? Evidence from Italy By Alberto F. Alesina; Francesca Lotti; Paolo Emilio Mistrulli
  8. Proposed changes to Regulation Z: highlighting behaviors that affect credit costs By Ann Kjos
  9. Alternative data and its use in credit scoring thin-and no-file consumers By Julia S. Cheney

  1. By: Wenersamy Ramos de Alcântara
    Abstract: This work develops an integrated model for optimal asset allocation in commercial banks that incorporates uncertain liquidity constraints that are currently ignored by RAROC and EVA models. While the economic profit accounts for the opportunity cost of risky assets, what may even incorporate a market liquidity premium, it neglects the risk of failure due to the lack of sufficient funds to cope with unexpected cash demands arising from bank runs, drawdowns, or market, credit and operational losses, what may happen along with credit rationing episodes or systemic level dry ups. Given a liquidity constraint that can incorporate these factors, there is a failure probability Pf that the constraint will not hold, resulting in a value loss for the bank, represented by a stochastic failure loss . By assuming that bankers are risk neutral in their decision about the size of the liquidity cushion, the economic profit less the possible losses due to the lack of liquidity is optimized, resulting in a short-term asset allocation model that integrates market, credit and operational risks in the liquidity management of banks. Even though a general approach is suggested through simulation, I provide a closed form solution for Pf , under some simplifying assumptions, that may be useful for research and supervision purposes as an indicator of the liquidity management adequacy in the banking system. I also suggest an extreme value theory approach for the estimation of , departing from other liquidity management models that use a penalty rate over the demand of cash that exceeds the availability of liquid resources. The model was applied to Brazilian banks data resulting in gains over the optimization without liquidity considerations that are robust under several tests, giving empirical indications that the model may have a relevant impact on the value creation in banks.
    Date: 2008–07
  2. By: Alexander F. Tieman; Daniel C. L. Hardy
    Abstract: The volume of credit extended by a bank can be an informative signal of its abilities in loan selection and management. It is shown that, under asymmetric information, banks may therefore rationally lend more than they would otherwise in order to demonstrate their quality, thus negatively affecting financial system soundness. Small shifts in technology and uncertainty associated with new technology may lead to large jumps in equilibrium outcomes. Prudential measures and supervision are therefore warranted.
    Date: 2008–07–28
  3. By: Timothy H. Hannan
    Abstract: This paper employs extensive information on bank deposit rates and county migration patterns to test for pricing relationships implied by the existence of switching costs. While these relationships are derived formally, the intuition for them can be readily stated. Because some areas experience more in-migration than others, banks, in addressing the trade-off between attracting new customers and exploiting old ones, offer higher deposit rates in areas (and at times) experiencing more in-migration. Further, because out-migration implies that on average a locked-in customer will not be with the bank as many periods, greater out-migration should change the bank’s assessment of this trade-off such that the bank will offer lower deposit rates in areas (and during periods) exhibiting greater out-migration, all else equal. Also, because this effect of out-migration logically depends on the existence and extent of in-migration, an interaction effect is implied. Evidence strongly supporting these implied relationships is reported. Other tests of the implications of switching costs in the banking industry are also conducted.
    Date: 2008
  4. By: Sharon Blei
    Abstract: The Northern Rock debacle - Britain's first bank run in 141 years - was the Tripartite regulatory system's first live ammunition test since its establishment in 1997. The aftermath of the crisis lists the destruction of Britain's fifth largest mortgage lender, the tarnishing of the Bank of England's well-established reputation, and the loss of confidence in the reformed regulatory system - a system that had been considered a paragon by policymakers and reformers around the world. As market observers, politicians, investors and bankers criticize not only the mortgage lender for its extreme business model - but also the Tripartite regulatory system for mishandling the crisis - it is important to piece the story together and draw lessons from it. This paper examines the Tripartite's management of the crisis and concludes that the separation between the roles of banking supervision and Lender of Last Resort, coupled by Britain's flawed deposit insurance scheme, account for the British regulatory system's mishandling of the funding shortage that escalated into a bank run.
    Keywords: Banks and banking - Great Britain ; Great Britain ; Bank supervision
    Date: 2008
  5. By: Johannes Wiegand
    Abstract: High oil prices have once again led to large external surpluses of oil exporting countries, similar to the 1970s and 1980s. This paper analyzes the extent to which (i) oil exporters use bank deposits to invest these surpluses, and (ii) banks are lending on these funds to emerging market economies. Bank recycling of petro dollars to emerging market economies is found to be almost as important as in the 1970s and 1980s, even though during the current boom, petro dollar bank flows tend to originate in countries like Russia, Libya, or Nigeria rather than in the Middle East. As one consequence, a fall in oil prices could yet again disrupt financing flows to emerging economies. Especially at risk could be countries that rely heavily on bank loans to finance external deficits, many of them in Emerging Europe.
    Keywords: Recycling process , Oil producing countries , Oil exports , Capital flows , Emerging markets , Bank credit , International trade ,
    Date: 2008–07–18
  6. By: Ola Melander; Tamim Bayoumi
    Abstract: This paper develops a framework for analyzing macro-financial linkages in the United States. We estimate the effects of a negative shock to banks' capital/assetratio on lending standards, which in turn affect consumer credit, mortgages, and corporate loans, and the corresponding components of private spending (consumption, residential investment and business investment). In addition, our empirical model allows for feedback from spending and income to bank capital adequacy and credit. Hence, we trace the full credit cycle. An exogenous fall in the bank capital/asset ratio by one percentage point reduces real GDP by some 1½ percent through its effects on credit availability, while an exogenous fall in demand of 1 percent of GDP is gradually magnified to around 2 percent through financial feedback effects.
    Keywords: United States , Credit , External shocks , Capital markets , Asset ratio , Consumer credit , Corporate sector , Loans , Gross domestic product ,
    Date: 2008–07–10
  7. By: Alberto F. Alesina; Francesca Lotti; Paolo Emilio Mistrulli
    Abstract: The answer is yes. By using a unique and large data set on overdraft contracts between banks and microfirms and self-employed individuals, we find robust evidence that women in Italy pay more for overdraft facilities than men. We could not find any evidence that women are riskier then men. The male/female differential remains even after controlling for a large number of characteristics of the type of business, the borrower and the market structure of the credit market. The result is not driven by women using a different type of bank than men, since the same bank charges different rates to male and female borrowers. Social capital does play a role: high levels of trust loosen credit conditions by lowering interest rates, but this benefit is not evenly distributed, as women benefit from increased social capital less than men.
    JEL: G21 J16 J71
    Date: 2008–07
  8. By: Ann Kjos
    Abstract: On June 29, 2007, the Payment Cards Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia sponsored a workshop led by Jeanne Hogarth, program manager, Consumer Education and Research Section, Division of Consumer and Community Affairs, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, to discuss the Board’s proposed changes to disclosure requirements for open-end credit, in particular, credit card billing statements and solicitation materials. Hogarth tied the proposed changes to her own research that identified certain behaviors most likely to affect the interest rates consumers pay for credit card borrowing. Given these research findings, Hogarth argued that having access to easily understood information about critical credit card terms and conditions can help consumers make more financially efficient decisions.
    Keywords: Regulation Z: Truth in Lending ; Credit cards
    Date: 2008
  9. By: Julia S. Cheney
    Abstract: On November 27, 2007, the Payment Cards Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia invited Jennifer Tescher, director, and Arjan Schütte, associate director, of the Center for Financial Services Innovation, to present a workshop. The Center asked Tescher and Schütte to share CFSI’s research on the developing role played by alternative payment data in evaluating risk for consumers with thin- and no-credit histories. After a discussion of thin- and no-file consumers and the challenges they face accessing credit, the speakers addressed aspects of supply and demand that are influencing the development of the market for alternative data. Several additional factors acting on this market were also examined: the costs and complexity of changes to IT infrastructure, legal and regulatory hurdles, and the broader economic impacts of extending the market for consumer credit.
    Keywords: Credit scoring systems
    Date: 2008

This issue is ©2008 by Roberto J. Santillán–Salgado. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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