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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Yassine El Henchaoui (LERSE - laboratory Laboratoire des Etudes et Recherches en Sciences Economiques et de Management-LERSE-doctorant) |
| Abstract: | Public procurement accounts for 15–17% of Morocco's GDP and constitutes a key instrument of economic policy. However, its actual impact on growth depends heavily on governance quality. This paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between public procurement, governance and economic growth in Morocco over the period 1996–2024 (n = 28 observations). The empirical strategy combines OLS regressions and a threshold regression model inspired by Hansen (1999) and adapted for univariate time series. The results identify an optimal governance threshold of γ = 0.005. Below this threshold, the procurement-growth coefficient is negative (β₁ = −0.257, p = 0.438). Above it, the coefficient is positive (β₂ = +0.525, p = 0.122), though statistically insignificant at the 5% level a result that calls for cautious interpretation. Education spending is a significant growth driver. This paper fills an empirical gap by applying, for the first time on Moroccan data for the post-2015 period, a two-regime governance-conditioned decomposition incorporating digitalisation and competition indicators rarely used in the literature. |
| Abstract: | Les marchés publics représentent au Maroc un instrument central de la politique économique, mobilisant entre 15 et 17 % du PIB (Portail marocain des marchés publics, 2024) et constituant un levier stratégique d'investissement. Toutefois, leur impact réel sur la croissance demeure conditionné par la qualité de la gouvernance. Cet article examine la relation non linéaire entre marchés publics, gouvernance et croissance économique au Maroc sur la période 1996–2024 (n = 28 observations). Sur le plan méthodologique, une approche économétrique combinant les modèles linéaires OLS et les modèles à seuil de type Threshold Regression, inspirés de Hansen (1999) et adaptés au cas des séries temporelles univariées, est mobilisée afin de capter l'effet conditionnel de la gouvernance. La base de données intègre des variables économiques et institutionnelles issues de source officielle (Banque mondiale, OCDE, Portail des marchés publics marocains). Les résultats identifient un seuil optimal de gouvernance γ = 0, 005. En deçà de ce seuil, l'impact des marchés publics sur la croissance est négatif (β₁ = −0, 257, p = 0, 438). Au-delà, le coefficient présente un signe positif (β₂ = +0, 525, p = 0, 122), bien que statistiquement non significatif au seuil conventionnel de 5 %, ce qui appelle à interpréter cette tendance avec prudence. L'éducation apparaît comme un facteur clé de croissance, tandis que l'ouverture commerciale exerce un effet ambigu. Cet article comble un vide empirique en appliquant, pour la première fois sur données marocaines post-2015, une décomposition en deux régimes conditionnels à la gouvernance, et en intégrant des indicateurs rarement mobilisés tels que la digitalisation de la commande publique et la concurrence mesurée par le nombre moyen d'offres. |
| Keywords: | Public procurement accounts for 15–17% of Morocco's GDP and constitutes a key instrument of economic policy. However, a two-regime governance-conditioned decomposition incorporating digitalisation and competition indicators rarely used in the literature., for the first time on Moroccan data for the post-2015 period, though statistically insignificant at the 5% level a result that calls for cautious interpretation. Education spending is a significant growth driver. This paper fills an empirical gap by applying, p = 0.122), the coefficient is positive (β₂ = +0.525, p = 0.438). Above it, the procurement-growth coefficient is negative (β₁ = −0.257, governance and economic growth in Morocco over the period 1996–2024 (n = 28 observations). The empirical strategy combines OLS regressions and a threshold regression model inspired by Hansen (1999) and adapted for univariate time series. The results identify an optimal governance threshold of γ = 0.005. Below this threshold, its actual impact on growth depends heavily on governance quality. This paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between public procurement, H57, marchés publics gouvernance croissance économique Maroc économétrie. Classification JEL : O43 H57 C24 D73 Type du papier : Recherche empirique public procurement governance economic growth Morocco econometrics. JEL Classification : O43 H57 C24 D73 Paper type : Empirical Research, marchés publics, gouvernance, croissance économique, Maroc, économétrie. Classification JEL : O43, C24, D73 Type du papier : Recherche empirique public procurement, governance, economic growth, Morocco, econometrics. JEL Classification : O43, D73 Paper type : Empirical Research |
| Date: | 2026–04–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05604177 |
| By: | Zineb El Alaoui (Faculté des sciences juridiques économiques et sociales de Salé Université Mohammed V de Rabat, Maroc); Mohamed Karim (Faculté des sciences juridiques économiques et sociales de Salé Université Mohammed V de Rabat, Maroc) |
| Abstract: | In a context of increasing budgetary constraints and growing demands for accountability, Results-Based Management (RBM) has emerged as a central lever for modernizing public administrations in both OECD and developing countries. In Morocco, the enactment of Organic Law No. 130-13 on the Finance Law introduced a budget governance framework oriented towards performance, transparency, and accountability. However, the gap between the ambitions of this reform and its operational implementation remains insufficiently documented in the literature. This article aims to analyze the contributions and limitations of RBM in the Moroccan administrative context, using a qualitative, analytical, and documentary approach based on three pillars: a critical review of the scientific literature, an examination of institutional reports, and an international comparison with performance-based budgeting systems in OECD countries. The findings show that RBM has led to notable advances in multi-year planning, budget transparency, and the introduction of a performance culture. However, its scope remains limited by persistent structural constraints, including insufficient institutional capacities, the predominance of a procedural administrative culture, and weak political ownership of performance mechanisms. The contribution of this article lies in the articulation between the New Public Management theoretical framework, international lessons, and an in-depth analysis of the Moroccan case, enabling the identification of the institutional, organizational, and cultural conditions under which RBM can serve as a sustainable lever for improving public performance in a developing country context. |
| Abstract: | Dans un contexte de contraintes budgétaires croissantes et de pressions accrues en faveur de la reddition des comptes, la gestion axée sur les résultats (GAR) s'impose comme un levier central de modernisation des administrations publiques, tant dans les pays de l'OCDE que dans les pays en développement. Au Maroc, la promulgation de la Loi Organique n° 130-13 relative à la Loi de Finances a introduit un cadre de gouvernance budgétaire orienté vers la performance, la transparence et la redevabilité. Cependant, l'écart entre les ambitions de cette réforme et sa traduction opérationnelle demeure insuffisamment documenté dans la littérature. Cet article vise à analyser les apports et les limites de la GAR dans le contexte administratif marocain, en mobilisant une approche qualitative, analytique et documentaire fondée sur trois piliers : une revue critique de la littérature scientifique, l'examen de rapports institutionnels et une comparaison internationale avec les dispositifs de budgétisation axée sur la performance au sein des pays de l'OCDE. Les résultats de l'analyse montrent que la GAR a permis des avancées notables en matière de planification pluriannuelle, de transparence budgétaire et d'introduction d'une culture de performance. Toutefois, sa portée demeure limitée par des contraintes structurelles persistantes, notamment l'insuffisance des capacités institutionnelles, la prédominance d'une culture administrative procédurale et la faible appropriation politique du dispositif de performance. La contribution de cet article réside dans l'articulation entre cadre théorique du New Public Management, enseignements internationaux et analyse approfondie du cas marocain, permettant de dégager les conditions institutionnelles, organisationnelles et culturelles sous lesquelles la GAR peut constituer un levier durable d'amélioration de la performance publique dans un contexte de pays en développement. |
| Keywords: | public performance, gestion axée sur les résultats, performance publique, réforme budgétaire, gouvernance, administration marocaine. JEL Classification : H61 H83 D73 O17. Type du papier : Étude documentaire et comparative results-based management, Moroccan administration. Classification JEL: H61 H83 D73 O17, budget reform, governance, O17, Moroccan administration. Classification JEL: H61, O17. Type du papier : Étude documentaire et comparative results-based management, D73, H83, administration marocaine. JEL Classification : H61 |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05611844 |
| By: | Khalid El Ouahmani (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar), ENCG - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion - UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar), LRPFG - Laboratoire de Recherche Prospective en Finance et Gestion - École Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion (ENCG), Université Hassan II de Casablanca, Maroc); Tarik Kasbaoui (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar), ENCG - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion - UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar), LRPFG - Laboratoire de Recherche Prospective en Finance et Gestion - École Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion (ENCG), Université Hassan II de Casablanca, Maroc) |
| Abstract: | Assessing hospital performance has become a key issue for governance and managerial decision-making in a context marked by increasing pressure on public health systems. Once largely approached through financial or productivity-based measures, hospital performance is now widely recognized as a multidimensional concept encompassing clinical, organizational, and human dimensions. In this context, the article offers a critical review of the main hospital performance assessment models developed within the field of management sciences, with particular attention given to the Performance Assessment Tool for Hospitals (PATH) designed by the World Health Organization (WHO). Drawing on a documentary and comparative analysis of major theoretical frameworks—including unidimensional models, the Donabedian framework, the Balanced Scorecard, EGIPSS, and PATH—the study examines the conditions under which the PATH model can be transferred and adapted to the context of Moroccan public hospitals, which is characterized by ongoing public sector reforms, particularly within the healthcare system. The findings suggest that unidimensional approaches fall short of capturing the organizational complexity of public hospitals. In contrast, the PATH model stands out for its integrative and participatory nature, as well as its clear orientation toward continuous improvement. Despite persistent challenges related to hospital information systems, managerial culture, and stakeholder ownership, the article highlights the potential of the PATH model as a strategic lever for modernizing hospital performance management in Morocco. Keywords: hospital performance, PATH model, performance assessment, health system reform, public hospitals |
| Abstract: | Face aux pressions croissantes exercées sur les systèmes de santé publics, l'évaluation de la performance hospitalière s'impose comme un enjeu stratégique de gouvernance et de pilotage managérial. Cet article propose une revue critique des principaux modèles d'évaluation de la performance hospitalière issus des sciences de gestion, avec un accent particulier sur le modèle PATH (Performance Assessment Tool for Hospitals), développé par l'Organisation mondiale de la Santé (OMS). À travers une analyse documentaire et comparative des cadres théoriques — modèles unidimensionnels, modèle de Donabedian, Balanced Scorecard, EGIPSS et PATH — l'étude examine les conditions de transférabilité et d'adaptation de ce modèle au contexte des hôpitaux publics marocains, dans un environnement marqué par des réformes de la gestion publique et du financement du système de santé. Les résultats montrent que les approches unidimensionnelles demeurent insuffisantes pour appréhender la complexité organisationnelle des hôpitaux, tandis que le modèle PATH se distingue par son caractère intégrateur, participatif et orienté vers l'amélioration continue. Malgré des contraintes liées aux systèmes d'information, à la culture managériale et à l'appropriation par les acteurs, l'article met en évidence le potentiel du modèle PATH en tant que levier stratégique pour la modernisation du pilotage de la performance hospitalière au Maroc. Mots-clés : |
| Keywords: | health system reform, hospital performance PATH model performance assessment health system reform public hospitals, public hospitals, performance assessment, PATH model, hospital performance, hôpitaux publics., réforme sanitaire, évaluation de la performance, modèle PATH, performance hospitalière |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05545512 |
| By: | Ali, Nadia; De Giorgi, Giacomo; Rahman, Aminur; Verhoogen, Eric |
| Abstract: | Many countries seek to promote exports by subsidizing market access, but evidence on such efforts has been mixed. We present the first randomized evaluation of a government financial-support program explicitly targeting exports, the Tasdir+ program in Tunisia. The program offered matching grants for fixed market-access costs but not variable costs. Tracking outcomes in administrative data, we find positive effects on exports on average. We find limited impacts on the number of destinations or exported products, which were stated policy targets. The finding that the fixed-cost subsidies expanded exports on the intensive margin but not the extensive margins of destinations or products stands in contrast to the predictions of several workhorse trade models. |
| Keywords: | Trade; Randomized control trial |
| JEL: | O1 F1 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20398 |
| By: | Oussama Houari (Bank Al-Maghrib) |
| Abstract: | In the absence of a dedicated Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index for Morocco, we construct a novel measure using natural language processing techniques applied to seven major Moroccan newspapers. The resulting index captures fluctuations in uncertainty related to the political context, economic downturns, and extreme climate events. Employing Structural Vector AutoRegression (SVAR) models, we assess the impact of both world and domestic uncertainty shocks on Morocco’s macroeconomic dynamics. Our findings show that the EPU index is countercyclical and significantly influences the economy through several transmission channels. In particular, heightened uncertainty worsens business cycle indicators, amplifies household pessimism, and promotes cash hoarding over bank savings. This research enriches the existing literature by uncovering the distinctive features of policy uncertainty in a small open emerging economy and underscores its implications for economic policy decisionmaking and public policy evaluation. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty shocks; Economic policy; Transmission mechanisms; SVAR |
| JEL: | D80 C32 E22 E32 E66 |
| Date: | 2025–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:bkamdt:023112 |
| By: | Louis Boisgibault (ENeC - Espaces, Nature et Culture - UP4 - Université Paris-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | An important interface between southern Tunisia and the Mediterranean, the port area of Sfax consists of a historic fishing port an artificial commercial port. The creation of the commercial port dates back to the government of the French protectorate, at the end of the 19th century, and allowed the city of Sfax, the second largest Tunisian urban agglomeration, to strengthen its regional economic role. With a traffic volume of 4 648 740 tonnes mainly inbound in 2022, it is the 3rd Tunisian port in tonnage. It does not stand out in the rankings as a major port in Africa, unlike Tanger Med in Morocco, whose growth has been spectacular over the last 15 years. The Sfax commercial port is versatile, as it deals with liquid and solid bulk and containerized goods. For passenger traffic, Sfax is the pier for ferries to the Kerkennah Islands. The authorities are faced with increasing illegal migration to Europe, generating disorder and tragedy. For a long time, the economic imperatives of international trade and fishing overshadowed the adjacent pollution and the poor carbon footprint of this area, which adjoins the city center. The port area is threatened by risks, in particular poor waste management, pollution, toxic emissions, rising water levels, storms, lack of drinking water, and global warming with its excessive heat. In a gloomy scenario, this metropolis of nearly 300, 000 inhabitants could be deserted by 2100, human life becoming too difficult there. Experts are calling for decontamination of the port, decarbonization of its activities, and better adaptation to this warming while limiting the artificialization of the coastline. But these major, highly studied sustainable modernization projects are struggling to materialize due to political instability, economic difficulties since the 2011 revolution, and lack of funding. They must accelerate today by following objectives consistent with the best international standards to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. |
| Abstract: | Interface importante entre la Tunisie du Sud et la Méditerranée, la zone portuaire de Sfax se compose d'un port de pêche historique et d'un port de commerce artificiel. La création du port de commerce remonte au gouvernement du protectorat français, à la fin du XIXe siècle, et a permis à la ville de Sfax, deuxième agglomération urbaine tunisienne, de renforcer son rôle économique régional. Avec un volume de trafic de 4 648 740 tonnes principalement en entrée en 2022, c'est le troisième port commercial tunisien en tonnage. Il ne s'impose pas dans les classements comme un port majeur d'Afrique, contrairement à Tanger Med au Maroc dont l'essor a été spectaculaire ces 15 dernières années. Le port de commerce de Sfax est polyvalent, car il traite du vrac liquide, solide et de marchandises conteneurisées. Pour le trafic de passagers, Sfax est l'embarcadère pour les ferrys vers les îles Kerkennah. Les autorités sont aussi confrontées à une migration illégale croissante vers l'Europe, génératrice de désordres et de tragédies. Longtemps, les impératifs, économiques du commerce international et de la pêche ont occulté les pollutions adjacentes et la mauvaise empreinte carbone de cette zone qui jouxte le centre-ville. La zone portuaire est menacée par des risques, en particulier la mauvaise gestion des déchets, les pollutions, les émissions toxiques, la montée des eaux, les tempêtes, le manque d'eau potable, le réchauffement climatique avec sa chaleur excessive. Dans un scénario sombre, cette métropole de près de 300 000 habitants pourrait être désertée à l'horizon 2100, la vie humaine y devenant trop difficile. Des experts appellent à une dépollution du port, à une décarbonisation de ses activités et à une meilleure adaptation à ce réchauffement, tout en limitant l'artificialisation du littoral. Mais ces grands projets de modernisation durable très étudiés peinent à se concrétiser en raison de l'instabilité politique, des difficultés économiques depuis la révolution de 2011 et du manque de financements. Ils doivent accélérer aujourd'hui, en suivant des objectifs conformes aux meilleurs standards internationaux pour atteindre la neutralité carbone en 2050. |
| Keywords: | bulk, Sfax, Tunisia, energy transition, port, container, pollution, CO2, energy, maritime traffic, conteneur, vrac, trafic maritime, énergie, Tunisie, transition énergétique |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05657291 |
| By: | Ozyilmaz, Mustafa Mert |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses youth unemployment and education–job mismatch in Turkey using individual-level data from the Turkish Statistical Institute(TÜİK) Labour Force Statistics for 2015. The youth (15–24) unemployment rate stands at 18.5%, more than double the adult (25–64) rate of 8.8%, with a pronounced gender gap: female youth face a 22.2% unemployment rate against 16.5% for males. Unemployment is highest among college-educated youth (29.5%), alongside high labour-force participation (75.1%) in this group. We construct two qualification-mismatch indicators for employed youth. Vertical mismatch - education level relative to the occupational modal - affects 53% of employed college graduates and 49% of vocational high school graduates, who work in occupations where the typical worker has lower formal education. Horizontal mismatch, field of education relative to occupation, is estimable for the 27.5% of employed youth with a field-of-education code; unmatched rates are highest for health and welfare (81%), humanities, arts, and social sciences (78%), and science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (68%) graduates. Logistic regression models confirm that female youth face significantly higher unemployment odds (OR = 1.31), that higher education is associated with greater overeducation risk (OR = 8.3 per education step), and that horizontal mismatch varies substantially across fields of study and regions. These findings are consistent with persistent misalignments between formal education and observed job allocation in Turkey, with implications for vocational education, graduate employment policy, and the school-to-work transition. |
| Date: | 2026–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:d5e7z_v1 |
| By: | Mustapha El Jarari (Faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales, Cadi Ayyad, Marrakech); Rachid Chayboub (Faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales, Cadi Ayyad, Marrakech); Brahim El Morchid (Faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales, Cadi Ayyad, Marrakech) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants of household food security among smallholder farmers in the Souss Valley. Recognizing the household as a fundamental unit of food access and stability, the level of food security is assessed using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), which categorizes households into four groups: food secure, marginally food insecure, moderately food insecure, and highly food insecure. A multinomial logistic regression model is employed to analyze the influence of key household characteristics, including the age and marital status of the household head, household size, farm size, number of livestock units, access to credit, remittances, income diversification, and access to irrigation, on food security status. The results reveal differentiated effects across food insecurity levels. While variables such as the household head's age and household size are associated with marginal food insecurity, access to irrigation and income diversification play a critical role in reducing the likelihood of falling into food insecurity. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude examine les déterminants de la sécurité alimentaire des ménages parmi les petits exploitants agricoles de la vallée du Souss. Reconnaissant le ménage comme une unité fondamentale de l'accès et de la stabilité alimentaires, le niveau de sécurité alimentaire est évalué à l'aide de l'échelle d'insécurité alimentaire des ménages (HFIAS), qui classe les ménages en quatre groupes : sécurité alimentaire, insécurité alimentaire marginale, insécurité alimentaire modérée et insécurité alimentaire sévère. Un modèle de régression logistique multinomiale est utilisé pour analyser l'influence de caractéristiques clés des ménages, notamment l'âge et la situation matrimoniale du chef de ménage, la taille du ménage, la superficie de l'exploitation, le nombre d'unités de bétail, l'accès au crédit, les envois de fonds, la diversification des revenus et l'accès à l'irrigation, sur le statut de sécurité alimentaire. Les résultats révèlent des effets différenciés selon les niveaux d'insécurité alimentaire. Alors que des variables telles que l'âge du chef de ménage et la taille du ménage sont associées à l'insécurité alimentaire marginale, l'accès à l'irrigation et la diversification des revenus jouent un rôle essentiel dans la réduction de la probabilité de basculer dans l'insécurité alimentaire. |
| Keywords: | Souss Valley, Smallholder farmers, Multinomial logistic regression, HFIAS, Food security |
| Date: | 2025–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05595797 |
| By: | Dina M Hamed |
| Abstract: | Making informed policy decisions is contingent upon the availability of reliable and timely data. The use of non-traditional data has been shown to be a powerful tool for enabling policymakers to conduct robust nowcasting—the practice of estimating the current period’s economic indicator(s), ahead of official releases, using a wide range of macroeconomic and high-frequency data. This paper showcases how different types of non-traditional data, such as indices extracted from satellite imagery, Google Trends, and flight tracking information, can be leveraged to complement official statistics and monitor economic activity, and how these timely signals can be incorporated into nowcasting models to provide early estimates of key macroeconomic variables in Morocco. The approach is applied to agricultural gross value added, tourism revenues, and the unemployment rate. The results demonstrate that non-traditional data substantially improves nowcasting models by enhancing predictive accuracy and enabling the rapid generation of nowcast estimates prior to the release of official data. |
| Keywords: | Nowcasting; Macroeconomic Forecasting; Non-traditional data; Satellite Imagery; Google Trends; Tourism Revenues; Agriculture GVA; Unemployment Rate; Machine learning; Morocco |
| Date: | 2026–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/108 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Jordan has successfully maintained macroeconomic stability amid headwinds from the war in the Middle East, thanks to the authorities’ swift policy response—including measures to diversify energy sources—prudent economic policies and progress on reforms, aided by strong international support. While the war has caused temporary disruptions in energy markets, a decline in tourism, and higher shipping costs, most economic sectors have continued to operate normally, with some benefitting from higher external demand and prices. However, uncertainty about the duration of the disruptions remains high and clouds the outlook. |
| Date: | 2026–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/146 |
| By: | Emre Akusta |
| Abstract: | Enhancing sustainable development performance requires an assessment of the relative roles of economic sectors in this process. However, comparative empirical evidence regarding the sectoral structure of sustainable development is limited, particularly for Turkiye. Therefore, this study examines the long-run relationship between sectoral structure and sustainable development in Turkiye by focusing on agriculture, industry, construction, and services. The empirical analysis uses annual data for the period 2000-2022 and proceeds in three steps. First, the stationarity properties of the variables are examined using ADF, PP, and Zivot-Andrews unit root tests. The Johansen cointegration test is then applied to determine whether a long-run equilibrium relationship exists among the variables. Finally, long-run coefficients are estimated using the DOLS estimator, while the FMOLS estimator is used as a robustness check. The findings show that all sectoral shares are positively associated with the sustainable development index in the long run. Based on the DOLS results, the services sector has the highest coefficient at 0.882, followed by the agriculture, industry, and construction sectors with coefficients of 0.302, 0.265, and 0.193, respectively. The FMOLS robustness check supports the DOLS long-run estimates. The study contributes to the literature by providing comparative sector-level evidence for Turkiye. It also highlights that sustainable development strategies should not rely on a single sector, but should be designed through balanced and sector-specific policies that account for sectoral differences. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.03793 |
| By: | Yousra A Abdelwahed (Alexandria University [Alexandrie]); Johannes Schaaper (IRGO - Institut de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Bordeaux); Hanane Elzeiny (Alexandria University [Alexandrie]) |
| Abstract: | Purpose: With the rising trend to find innovative sources of finance and the increasing number of crowdfunded projects globally, this research attempts to analyze the criteria that encourage individuals to fund entrepreneurial projects through crowdfunding. The study develops a research model based on signaling theory, prior crowdfunding literature, and venture capitalists' decision-making frameworks, to examine factors influencing crowdfunding intentions. Methodology: A quantitative survey approach was employed, targeting crowdfunding participants in two distinct settings, Egypt and France. Data was collected using a self-administered questionnaire from 200 respondents, 95 from Egypt and 105 from France. Seven main hypotheses were empirically tested in the two contexts. Findings: Using regression analysis, we identified six key criteria that significantly influence intentions to fund crowdfunding projects. These criteria include: (1) project's stage of development, (2) reward nature, (3) externality, (4) popularity, (5) growth potential of the target market, and (6) the quality of the crowdfunding platform. T- test analysis was used to examine differences between the two contexts, comparing Egypt and France we found no significant difference in funding intentions. However, significant differences emerged regarding the importance of certain criteria: entrepreneur's experience, education and gender, as well as the project's development stage, reward nature, externality, popularity and target market growth potential. Originality: This study fills a key research gap by offering a cross-country comparative analysis of crowdfunding. It introduces a new framework to understand crowd funders' intentions, providing practical insights for entrepreneurs to improve fundraising success while advancing academic knowledge on cross-cultural crowdfunding behaviour. |
| Abstract: | Objectif : Face à la tendance croissante à rechercher des sources de financement innovantes et à l'augmentation du nombre de projets financés par le crowdfunding à l'échelle mondiale, cette étude vise à analyser les critères qui incitent les particuliers à financer des projets entrepreneuriaux par le biais du crowdfunding. L'étude élabore un modèle de recherche fondé sur la théorie du signal, la littérature existante sur le crowdfunding et les cadres décisionnels des investisseurs en capital-risque, afin d'examiner les facteurs influençant les intentions de participation au crowdfunding. Méthodologie : Une approche d'enquête quantitative a été adoptée, ciblant des participants au crowdfunding dans deux contextes distincts, l'Égypte et la France. Les données ont été recueillies à l'aide d'un questionnaire auto-administré auprès de 200 répondants, dont 95 en Égypte et 105 en France. Sept hypothèses principales ont été testées empiriquement dans ces deux contextes. Résultats : À l'aide d'une analyse de régression, nous avons identifié six critères clés qui influencent de manière significative les intentions de financement de projets de financement participatif. Ces critères sont les suivants : (1) le stade de développement du projet, (2) la nature de la contrepartie, (3) l'externalité, (4) la popularité, (5) le potentiel de croissance du marché cible et (6) la qualité de la plateforme de financement participatif. Une analyse par test t a été utilisée pour examiner les différences entre les deux contextes ; en comparant l'Égypte et la France, nous n'avons constaté aucune différence significative dans les intentions de financement. Cependant, des différences significatives sont apparues concernant l'importance de certains critères : l'expérience, la formation et le genre de l'entrepreneur, ainsi que le stade de développement du projet, la nature de la récompense, les retombées externes, la popularité et le potentiel de croissance du marché cible. Originalité : cette étude comble une lacune majeure de la recherche en proposant une analyse comparative transnationale du financement participatif. Elle introduit un nouveau cadre permettant de comprendre les intentions des contributeurs, fournissant ainsi des conseils pratiques aux entrepreneurs pour améliorer leurs chances de réussite en matière de levée de fonds, tout en faisant progresser les connaissances académiques sur les comportements transculturels en matière de financement participatif. |
| Keywords: | signalling theory, venture capital ijbm.ccsenet.org, intention, entrepreneurial finance, cross-country comparison, crowdfunding |
| Date: | 2025–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05671286 |
| By: | Aykut Sengul; Abdullah Kursat Merter |
| Abstract: | The present study documents the conditional association between corporate leverage and firm employment growth using an economy-wide administrative panel of nearly one million Turkish firms over the 2009–2023 period. Drawing on 6.8 million firm-year observations and multi-dimensional fixed effects, we report four principal patterns. First, firm age and size are negatively associated with employment growth, while asset tangibility, liquidity, profitability, and export orientation are positively associated with it. Second, the leverage–growth association follows an asymmetric inverted-U pattern, and this non-linearity is most pronounced for short-term and trade-credit-intensive liabilities rather than long-term financial debt. Third, the point at which the association turns negative varies substantially across sectors: it occurs at higher leverage levels in energy & mining, trade, and services, and at considerably lower levels in construction. Fourth, the 2018 currency crisis coincides with a leftward shift in this association, with moderate leverage becoming less positively associated with growth and high leverage becoming more negatively associated with it. The paper's contribution lies in documenting these patterns at an unusually comprehensive scale — covering the entire Turkish corporate universe — and in showing how they vary by debt composition, sector, and macroeconomic conditions. |
| Keywords: | Leverage, Debt overhang, Firm growth, SMEs, Manufacturers, Exporters, Emerging markets |
| JEL: | G32 L25 O16 E44 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2612 |
| By: | Yusuf Emre Akgunduz; Muhammed Hamza Kayrici |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the February 2023 Türkiye earthquakes on housing markets in unaffected regions using online real estate listings and a time-based Regression Discontinuity Design. We document a sharp post-disaster demand shock driven by large-scale population displacement, with effects concentrated in the residential rental market. Consistent with a residential displacement shock, no significant effects are detected in commercial property markets. Price increases were highly segmented: pressures were strongest for multi-room units, reflecting the larger family structures of displaced households, and for newly constructed units, indicating a post-disaster flight-to-safety. Cross-sectional province-level and difference-in-differences estimates show that pre-existing migration networks and geographic distance are the primary determinants of rental price pressures. |
| Keywords: | Natural disasters, Housing markets, Rental prices, Internal displacement, Migration networks, Regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | C21 Q54 R21 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2613 |
| By: | Thabit Atobishi; Saeed Nosratabadi |
| Abstract: | While the operational benefits of Artificial Intelligence (AI) are well-documented, the mechanisms through which firms leverage AI for strategic exploration and radical innovation remain under-theorized. This study addresses the black box of AI value creation by integrating the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework with the Dynamic Capabilities View (DCV). We propose that AI adoption is not a direct antecedent to performance but a multi-stage process wherein technological, organizational, and environmental factors enable the development of sensing capability, which in turn fosters a novel capability we term AI-Enabled Exploration. Analyzing survey data from 245 senior executives in Saudi Arabia, a high-growth economy undergoing state-led digital transformation, we employed Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to test the model. The results confirm a serial mediation chain: organizational readiness and technology compatibility drive sensing capability, which subsequently powers AI-enabled exploration to enhance innovation performance. Contrary to expectations, government support was not a significant predictor of sensing capability, suggesting that in resource-rich environments, external incentives are necessary but insufficient for capability building. Furthermore, competitive pressure was found to positively moderate the relationship between organizational readiness and exploration, acting as a critical catalyst that converts latent resources into active experimentation. These findings offer a theoretical roadmap for firms attempting to transition from AI-driven efficiency to AI-driven ambidexterity. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.02645 |