|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Adar, Sinem; Asseburg, Muriel; Azizi, Hamidreza; Klein, Margarete; Steinberg, Guido |
| Abstract: | On 8 December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown by a rebel alliance led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The collapse of the family dictatorship was made possible by shifts in regional and international power dynamics. Key factors included Turkish support for the rebels, the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah owing to Israeli military strikes and Russia's changing priorities in the context of its war against Ukraine. At the same time, the fall of the Assad regime has led to another shift in power relations in the region. The interests, priorities and actions of regional and international actors will define the room for manoeuvre of the new rulers in Damascus. Turkey and Israel have occupied territories in the north and southwest of the country, respectively. The Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf are expected to exercise influence, too, as they will play a crucial role in the reconstruction of Syria. And the United States still maintains a military presence in Syria, although its future involvement in the country is uncertain. |
| Keywords: | Syria, Assad Regime, Bashar al-Assad, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Islamic State (IS), balance of power, Turkey, Kurds, Iran, Hezbollah, Israel, Russia, war against Ukraine, Gulf Arab monarchies, United States, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), al-Qaeda, Nusra Front |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315535 |
| By: | Adar, Sinem; Asseburg, Muriel; Azizi, Hamidreza; Klein, Margarete; Steinberg, Guido |
| Abstract: | On 8 December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown by a rebel alliance led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The transitional government under Ahmad al-Sharaa now faces enormous economic, social and political challenges. It has yet to establish control over the country as a whole; and jihadist groups such as the so-called Islamic State (IS) continue to pose a threat, as do (potential) insurgents linked to the former regime, among other groups. At the same time, the actions of various regional and international actors risk destabilising Syria or sabotaging the transition already under way. Regardless of whether that risk materialises, it is these external forces that are setting the bounds of the new rulers' room for manoeuvre. For its part, the interim government has started to lay off most members of the former regime's Syrian Arab Army and disband militias. It has also struck a deal with the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) about their integration into the new Syrian army and embarked on a political transition. Germany and its EU partners should support an inclusive transition process and help facilitate the comprehensive reconstruction of the country, not least by easing sanctions. Indeed, it is essential that geopolitical tensions surrounding Syria be de-escalated rather than exacerbated. |
| Keywords: | Syria, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Ahmad al-Sharaa, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Assad, Russia, Israel, United States, Iran |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315537 |
| By: | Roll, Stephan; Thies, Antonia |
| Abstract: | Saudi Arabia has mixed expectations ahead of Donald Trump's imminent second presidency. On the one hand, the royal family maintains close business relations with the president-elect and his entourage, which could lead to privileged access to the White House. On the other hand, Trump's Middle East policy, his confrontational stance towards China and his plans to increase domestic oil production could all jeopardise the kingdom's ongoing transformation under its ambitious "Vision 2030" development agenda. This presents opportunities for Germany and its European partners to step up cooperation with the kingdom, not least in order to advance their own strategic interests vis-à-vis Washington. |
| Keywords: | Saudi Arabia, "Vision 2030", Donald Trump, Elon Musk, US Middle East policy, Germany, Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), Iran, regional stability, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Benjamin Netanyahu, China, oil revenues, fracking industry, Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315528 |
| By: | Siddig, Khalid; Abay, Kibrom A.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; Rakhy, Tarig |
| Abstract: | Sudan is experiencing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Sudan is now suffering the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. The war has devastated livelihoods, displaced millions, and significantly weakened the country’s agrifood systems and broader economic structures. In response, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), along with its partners, has intensified its research and policy engagement in Sudan through the Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), which was launched in 2022. IFPRI’s work on Sudan is centered on addressing fragility, post-conflict recovery, resilience-building, and economic development. Its research and policy engagements focus on food security, economy-wide modeling, social protection, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSME), and agricultural resilience as it works to provide critical evidence-based insights to support recovery efforts that will enable Sudan to regain peace and economic growth and stability. Through high-frequency data collection, impact evaluations, and policy dialogues, the SSSP team has continued to deliver data-driven solutions to inform humanitarian responses, economic revitalization, and development planning in Sudan. By collaborating with organizations such as the World Food Programme (WFP), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank, and other CGIAR centers and initiatives, IFPRI, through SSSP, has generated information to design effective interventions for conflict-affected populations and institutions working to rebuild Sudan’s economy. |
| Keywords: | capacity development; economic crises; economic development; fragility; resilience; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sssppn:174025 |
| By: | Mohammed Elatmani (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl, Laboratoire des Sciences Economiques et Politiques Publiques (LSEPP) Faculté d’Economie et de Gestion de Kénitra); Kenza El Kadiri (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl, Laboratoire des Sciences Economiques et Politiques Publiques (LSEPP) Faculté d’Economie et de Gestion de Kénitra) |
| Abstract: | This article examines Morocco's ongoing efforts to modernize public administration, with a particular focus on the New Public Management (NPM) framework. As Morocco faces growing demand for high-quality public services, complex public issues, budgetary constraints, and rapid technological changes, the Moroccan government has undertaken a wide range of significant reforms aimed at modernizing its public administration. This study assesses the current state of public administration modernization in Morocco and explores how NPM principles can contribute to this transformation. It also highlights the challenges and opportunities associated with implementing NPM in the Moroccan context. The hypothesis suggests that NPM can significantly improve service quality, responsiveness to citizens' needs, and resource efficiency. Our research provides practical insights for Moroccan public administrators and emphasizes the potential of NPM to enhance governance and public service delivery. It underscores the need for cultural alignment and tailored approaches to ensure the successful implementation of NPM in Morocco, ultimately contributing to a more efficient and responsive public administration. |
| Keywords: | Modernization, Public Administration, Morocco, New Public Management (NPM) |
| Date: | 2025–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04990533 |
| By: | Amélie Allegre; Oana Borcan; Christa Brunnschweiler; Christa N. Brunnschweiler |
| Abstract: | We examine colonial-era primary education as a determinant of modern-day attainment and gender disparities in education. We construct a novel dataset from the French Protectorate in Morocco, combining archival data on colonial school locations in 1931 and 1954 with the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data in arbitrary grids. We analyse the influence of colonial schools on the probability of attaining primary and secondary education in 2004. Overall, schools dedicated to Moroccans in 1931 exhibit a persistent positive impact on education outcomes, but only in the absence of nearby schools reserved for Europeans. Stark gender gaps in access during the Protectorate were narrowed in places with schools for Jewish Moroccans. These had a positive impact on girls’ contemporary levels of education, but a negative impact on the enrolment for boys following the dismantling of Jewish communities after 1948. DHS measures of preferences for female education point to a social norms transmission mechanism between Jewish and Muslim Moroccan communities. |
| Keywords: | education, colonial legacy, female education, Morocco, French Protectorate |
| JEL: | N37 O15 I21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11725 |
| By: | Demirci, Mustafa Can; Yucel, Mustafa Eray |
| Abstract: | This paper quantitatively examines the refugee absorption/integration rates across Türkiye’s 81 provinces while considering the geographical and economic features of each of the 81 provinces. The study mainly focuses on the distribution of Syrian refugees under temporary protection in Türkiye after the 2011 Syrian Civil War and develops an array of econometric models to understand the spatial distribution of refugees. Subsequently, the over-absorbing provinces (the provinces that host more than their model-suggested ideal capacity) and under-absorbing provinces (the provinces that host less than their model-suggested ideal capacity) are highlighted along with a road map for future research venues. |
| Keywords: | Syria; Civil war; Refugee; Temporary protection; Socio-economic absorption; Turkey; Türkiye |
| JEL: | C51 I38 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–04–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124448 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Moroccan economy showed remarkable resilience to recent shocks, although a succession of droughts severely curtailed agricultural production and pushed unemployment to historical highs. Morocco's very strong institutional and policy framework has been effective in addressing these shocks, with well-calibrated fiscal, monetary, and financial policies. The authorities continue to implement their ambitious structural reform agenda, towards a more resilient, greener, inclusive, private sector-led growth, and further strengthening their institutional policy frameworks. The authorities remain fully committed to maintaining very strong policies and policy frameworks. |
| Date: | 2025–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/094 |
| By: | Hanane Nafaa (FSJES Souissi RABAT - Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales Souissi RABAT); Amina Aomari (FSJES Souissi RABAT - Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales Souissi RABAT); Hind Ghilane (FSJES Souissi RABAT - Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales Souissi RABAT) |
| Abstract: | The boycott of Starbucks, in the current context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, highlights the intersection of geopolitical issues, consumer responsibility, and corporate accountability. This boycott, which falls within the broader framework of the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement, targets Starbucks due to allegations of associations with Israeli policies. Despite the company's denials of any involvement, this movement symbolizes international solidarity with the Palestinian cause. The analysis explores the economic, social, and political dimensions of this boycott, with a focus on its impact in Morocco. The Moroccan context reflects increased consumer awareness changes in purchasing habits, and a strengthened collective identity around ethical consumerism. Additionally, this mobilization has led Starbucks to reassess its business strategies and respond to consumer concerns. Key consequences include reputational risks for Starbucks, economic effects on franchisees, and a broader debate on corporate responsibility in conflict zones. By analyzing the motivations, amplification through social media, and the symbolic significance of consumer activism, this study highlights the power of collective action to influence multinational corporations and promote social justice agendas on a global scale. This article aims to illustrate the evolving role of consumers in geopolitical conflicts and how their choices influence corporate strategies. It sheds light on the growing impact of boycott movements as tools of economic and political pressure, as well as their effect on consumers' emotional intelligence. Finally, it raises questions about the sustainability of such social actions (CSR) and their long-term effects. |
| Abstract: | Le boycott de Starbucks, dans le contexte actuel du conflit israélo-palestinien, met en lumière l'intersection entre les enjeux géopolitiques, la responsabilité des consommateurs et la redevabilité des entreprises. Ce boycott, qui s'inscrit dans le cadre plus large du mouvement de Boycott, Désinvestissement et Sanctions (BDS), cible Starbucks en raison d'allégations d'associations avec les politiques israéliennes. Malgré les démentis de l'entreprise quant à son implication, ce mouvement symbolise une solidarité internationale avec la cause palestinienne. L'analyse explore les dimensions économiques, sociales et politiques de ce boycott, en mettant l'accent sur son impact au Maroc. Le contexte marocain illustre une sensibilisation accrue des consommateurs, des changements dans les habitudes d'achat et une identité collective renforcée autour du consumérisme éthique. De plus, cette mobilisation a conduit Starbucks à réévaluer ses stratégies d'entreprise et à répondre aux préoccupations des consommateurs. Parmi les conséquences clés figurent les risques pour la réputation de Starbucks, les effets économiques sur les franchisés et un débat élargi sur la responsabilité des entreprises dans les zones de conflit. En analysant les motivations, l'amplification par les médias sociaux et la portée symbolique de l'activisme des consommateurs, cette étude met en évidence le pouvoir de l'action collective pour influencer les multinationales et promouvoir des agendas de justice sociale à l'échelle mondiale. Cet article vise à illustrer l'évolution du rôle des consommateurs dans les conflits géopolitiques et la manière dont leurs choix influencent les stratégies des entreprises. Il met en lumière l'influence croissante des mouvements de boycott en tant qu'outils de pression économique et politique, mais aussi leur impact sur l'intelligence émotionnelle des consommateurs. Enfin, il soulève des questions sur la durabilité de ces actions sociales (RSE) et leurs effets à long terme. |
| Keywords: | Israeli-Palestinian conflict - Starbucks boycott - Boycott, Divestment and sanctions (BDS) - Consumer activism - Corporate responsibility - Ethical consumerism, Conflit israélo-palestinien - Boycott de Starbucks - Boycott, Désinvestissement et sanctions (BDS) - Activisme des consommateurs - Responsabilité des entreprises - Consommation éthique |
| Date: | 2025–03–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04999394 |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| Abstract: | The Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), one of the country programs of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), commenced operations in May 2022 from the premises of the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, its official host institution in Sudan. Established with funding from USAID, the United States Agency for International Development, the program has also formed partnerships or received support from a number of prominent organizations, including the CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration, the CGIAR Initiative on NEXUS Gains, the United Nations Development Programme, the World Bank, the World Food Programme, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). |
| Keywords: | capacity development; development; data collection; economic analysis; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sssppn:174016 |
| By: | Ansari, Dawud; Gehrung, Rosa Melissa; Pepe, Jacopo Maria |
| Abstract: | Central Asian economies, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are pursuing increasingly ambitious goals for renewable energy. Apart from China - an established player in the market - it has increasingly been Gulf countries that have been implementing respective projects, particularly Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Both China and Gulf countries seem to have found a cooperative approach that is based on sharing the Central Asian market along the value chain. This approach could be a blueprint for future Gulf-China relations, which have become relevant for global politics. Simultaneously, the dynamics also exemplify the growing number of energy and geopolitical dynamics over which Europe has little influence. For the European Union (EU) and Germany, the developments serve as a reminder: While intra-Asian dynamics are gaining importance, Germany and the EU risk being marginalised in matters concerning energy, climate, and geopolitics - and not just in Central Asia. In response, a more consistent Central Asia strategy is required, alongside a constructive and non-ideological approach towards relations with the Arab Gulf States. |
| Keywords: | Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, China, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), EU, Germany, Central Asian market, Gulf-China relations, energy, geopolitical dynamics, ACWA Power Renewable Energy Holding, PowerChina, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, climate technologies, fossil fuels, green energy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315531 |
| By: | Karim Mazroub (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)); Nabila Bhih (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)) |
| Abstract: | The leadership provided by school leaders plays an important role in improving the education and training system, by positively influencing all partners to achieve the desired objectives, both at local level and in terms of major national trends and strategies. The objective of this study is to examine the leadership of the heads of public education institutions in the provincial directorate of AL HAOUZ. In order to achieve this objective, we favoured a qualitative investigation of an exploratory type, and we chose the interview as the data collection method. The interviews were conducted with 12 school heads from different educational cycles. The study aims to identify the extent to which leaders of educational institutions possess appropriate leadership skills and competencies, to determine the leadership styles adopted by the respondents, and to detect the most important problems that impede their work. |
| Abstract: | Le leadership exercé par les responsables des établissements d'enseignement joue un rôle important dans l'amélioration du système de l'éducation et de la formation, car il permet d'influencer positivement tous les partenaires pour atteindre les objectifs souhaités, au niveau local et au niveau des grandes tendances et stratégies nationales. L'objectif de cet article est d'examiner le leadership des chefs d'établissements publics d'enseignement dans la direction provinciale d'AL HAOUZ relevant de l'académie régionale de Marrakech-Safi. Et pour atteindre cet objectif, nous avons privilégié une investigation qualitative de type exploratoire, et nous avons opté pour l'utilisation de l'entretien comme méthode de collecte de données. Les entretiens ont été menés auprès de 12 chefs d'établissements scolaires des différents cycles d'enseignement. L'étude vise à identifier la mesure dans laquelle les dirigeants des établissements d'enseignement possèdent les aptitudes et les compétences en leadership appropriées. Elle vise aussi à déterminer les styles de leadership adoptés par les répondants, et à détecter les problèmes les plus importants qui entravent leur travail. |
| Keywords: | Leadership, Educational leadership, Directors, Publics school, leadership styles., Leadership éducatif, Directeurs, Établissements scolaires publics, Styles de leadership |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04999210 |
| By: | Mhamed Ben Salah (South Mediterranean University, Mediterranean School of Business); Cédric Chambru (ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon, CERGIC - Center for Economic Research on Governance, Inequality and Conflict - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon); Maleke Fourati (South Mediterranean University, Mediterranean School of Business) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses spatial variations in the enrolment rate of Tunisian pupils in 1931 to estimate the weight of colonial history on medium- and long-run educational attainment. We assemble a new dataset on the location of public primary schools and the number of pupils and teachers, together with population data for 1931. We match these data with information on education at the district level, derived from two population censuses conducted in 1984 and 2014. We find that a one per cent increase in the enrolment rate in 1931 is associated with a 2.37 percentage points increase in the literacy rate in 1984, and a 1.89 percentage points increase in 2014. We further investigate the exposure to colonial public primary education across different age cohorts. We find that our results are mainly driven by older generations, and tend to fade for younger cohorts. While we provide qualitative evidence that a cultural transmission of education may have contributed to this persistence, we also argue that the continuous effort and investment made by Tunisian governments to achieve universal primary enrolment best explain the decline in spatial disparities in educational attainment. |
| Keywords: | Colonial investment, Colonial settlers, Primary education, Literacy, Tunisia |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05004027 |
| By: | Oussama Zouabi (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon, UTLN - Université de Toulon); Michel Dimou (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon, UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to examine the relationship between climate shocks and agri-food and overall inflation in Tunisia for the period 1985-2000. Climate shocks represent extreme weather phenomena such as droughts, heat waves, and floods To address this question, the paper uses an extensive Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model that incorporates a Pesaran cointegration test, enabling the exploration of potential asymmetric effects stemming from positive and negative climate shocks on both general and agri-food inflation in the short and the long run. The key findings of the paper indicate that positive temperature shocks exert a significant inflationary impact on all agricultural products, the food industry, and, more broadly, the entire Tunisian economy, both in the short and long term. Conversely, a sudden shortage in rainfall does not significantly affect either agricultural or food prices, nor does it influence the general price index. This result is rather unexpected since long-term rainfall trends significantly affect agricultural production, emphasizing the importance of appropriate agricultural policies such as irrigation. |
| Keywords: | Tunisia, Climate shocks, NARDL model, Climate inflation, Climate change Agriculture climate inflation NARDL Tunisia Q50 Q54 Q10 P24 C15, Climate change, Agriculture, climate inflation, NARDL, Tunisia Q50, Q54, Q10, P24, C15 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04985855 |
| By: | Üngör, Çağdaş |
| Abstract: | The techno-geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States has intensified in recent years. Turkey's souring relations with the US over the past decade has prevented the former from reaping the spoils of the Sino-US tech war as an American ally. Ankara has its own ambitions in the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution and is prioritising gaining access to advanced technology under affordable price arrangements in which Chinese tech companies offer important opportunities. Since Turkey is a NATO member and an EU candidate, its incremental move towards China's technology ecosystem should be of concern to EU decision-makers. Brussels should promote policies to foster collaboration with Turkey so that today's geoeconomic challenges can be tackled together. |
| Keywords: | techno-geopolitical rivalry, China, United States, Turkey, Fourth Industrial Revolution, EU, NATO, geoeconomic challenges, AI, 5G, semiconductor value chain, Xiaomi, Huawei, DeepSeek, ChatGPT |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315538 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | After accelerating in 2023, GDP growth slowed to 3.2 percent in 2024, as another drought curtailed agricultural production. Domestic demand remained robust in the first three quarters of the year, with consumption boosted by lower inflation and fiscal support, and investment benefiting from the start of an infrastructure building cycle. Labor market conditions remained weak, due to significant job losses in the agricultural sector and low labor force participation. The effect of stronger demand on the current account deficit has been muted by continued positive trends in tourism, remittances, and manufacturing exports. The gradual fiscal consolidation continued as expected, and the 2025 Budget reiterated the authorities’ commitment to reduce the government debt ratio over the medium term. The authorities have continued with their structural reform agenda and have announced a new strategy to boost employment. |
| Date: | 2025–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/087 |
| By: | Mezine Anass (FSJES AIN SEBAA, Hassan II University –Casablanca); Pr Yaacoubi Abdelhak (FSJES AIN SEBAA, Hassan II University –Casablanca) |
| Abstract: | Deposit interest rates are recognized as one of the determining factors for the volume of savings in the economy. Although, there are cases with contradictory results, it is widely accepted that the rate of remuneration on deposits has a positive relationship with their volume. In other words, bank depositors are typically motivated by maximizing their profits. Even though, the business model of participative banks excludes interest rate, several studies have confirmed that these institutions experience fund outflows in response to market credit interest rate fluctuations. In this paper, we examine the interaction links between the investment deposits' volume in participative banks, the volume of term deposits in conventional banks, and the interest rate's policy. Our study employs a time-series analysis of monthly banks data from January 2020 to June 2024. The methodology adopted is based on an approach ranging from verifiying the statistical properties of the series of variables studied, to analysis of the existence of cointegration and causal relationships between the variables. To achieve this, the Johansen cointegration test, the Granger causality test, and impulse response function (IRF) analysis were used within a vector error correction model (VECM) framework. The results obtained reveal the opportunistic behavior of investment account holders in participative banks who immediately transfer their funds to higher-yielding conventional term deposits following a variation in market rates. Under commercial pressure, the participative banks are compelled to gradually adjust their investment deposits remuneration rates to maintain their attractiveness. Our findings also illustrate the existence of structural interactions between the conventional and participative banking systems, where the strategic decisions of one segment gradually influence the other. Our study confirms the exposure of participative banks to rate of return risks, particularly those related to depositor behavior. However, these institutions struggle with a shortage of risk management instruments. Consequently, they are obliged to develop innovative risk management strategies tailored to their specific characteristics. The recommendations provided in this paper focus notably on developing hedging instruments that comply with participative finance principles, the implementation of a reserve policy based on profit equalization reserves (PER) and investment risk reserves (IRR), and the improvement of internal risk management approaches to better anticipate and manage periods of vulnerability. |
| Abstract: | Les taux créditeurs sont reconnus comme l'un des facteurs déterminants du volume de l'épargne dans l'économie. Malgré qu'il existe des cas de résultats contradictoires, il est généralement admis que le taux de rémunération des dépôts a une relation positive avec le volume de ces derniers. En d'autres termes, les déposants des banques sont généralement motivés par la maximisation de leurs profits. Bien que le mode de fonctionnement des banques participatives est excepte du taux d'intérêt, plusieurs études réalisées ont démontré que ces établissements font face à une fuite de fonds lors d'une fluctuation des taux créditeurs du marché. Dans cet article, nous examinons les liens d'interaction qui existent entre le volume des dépôts d'investissement des banques participatives, le volume des dépôts à terme des banques conventionnelles et le taux directeur. Notre étude utilise une analyse de séries temporelles des données mensuelles des banques de la place de la période allant de Janvier 2020 à Juin 2024. La méthodologie adoptée repose sur une démarche allant de la vérification des propriétés statistiques des séries des variables étudiées, à l'analyse de l'existence des relations de cointégration et de cause à effet entre les variables. Afin d'y parvenir le test de cointégration de Johansen, le test de causalité de Granger et l'analyse de réponse impulsionnelle (IRF) ont été utilisés dans le cadre d'un modèle vectoriel à correction d'erreur (VECM). Les résultats obtenus révèlent le comportement opportuniste des titulaires des comptes d'investissement des banques participatives qui, suite à une variation des taux du marché, procèdent à un transfert immédiat de leurs fonds vers des dépôts à terme conventionnels plus rémunérés. Sous pression commerciale, les banques participatives se voient incitées à ajuster progressivement leurs taux de rémunération des dépôts d'investissement afin de préserver leur attractivité. Nos résultats illustrent également l'existence des interactions structurelles entre le système bancaire conventionnel et celui participatif, dont les décisions stratégiques de l'un des segments influencent progressivement l'autre. Notre étude affirme l'exposition des banques participatives au risque de taux de rendement liés notamment au comportement de leurs déposants. Cependant, ces établissements souffrent d'une pénurie des instruments de gestion de ce risque. Elles se voient obligées à développer des stratégies de gestion des risques innovantes et adaptées à leurs particularités. Les recommandations apportées dans cet article portent notamment sur le développement d'instruments de couverture conformes aux principes de la finance participative, la mise en place d'une politique de réserves basée sur les réserves de lissage des profits (PER) et des réserves pour risques d'investissement (IRR), ainsi que l'amélioration des approches internes de gestion des risques pour mieux anticiper et gérer les périodes de vulnérabilité. |
| Keywords: | Participative banks, Rate of return risk, Granger causality, Cointegration, Winsorizing, VECM, Banques participatives, Risque de taux de rendement, Causalité Granger, Cointégration, Winsorisation |
| Date: | 2025–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05005487 |
| By: | Yegin, Mehmet; Çevik, Salim |
| Abstract: | President Biden's term is coming to an end. Turkish-American relations have reached a low, with Erdoægan noting that Biden is the first US president with whom he has had no meaningful dialogue. The Erdoægan government believes this is due to the Biden administration's "overemphasis" on democracy and human rights, and hopes that election of Donald Trump will open a new page. However, the bilateral problems are deeper than Erdoægan realises and relations will remain at a low level for the foreseeable future. Turkey's strategic importance to the United States is in decline not only because of Washington's "pivot to Asia", but also due to Erdoægan's considerable liabilities, his waning political credibility, and diverging interests between Ankara and Washington in the region. This steady downturn has direct implications for the European Union, which does not have the luxury of downgrading its engagement and will have to take the lead. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, United States, EU, Joe Biden, Recep Tayyip Erdoægan, Xi Jinping, Ursula von der Leyen, People's Defence Units (YPG), Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), S-400s, F 35 warplanes |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315522 |
| By: | Yükçü, Onur |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how ethnic networks shaped trade among Armenian, Greek, Jewish, and Turkish traders in Istanbul after the collapse of the OttomanEmpire. I draw on a novel micro-dataset of 3, 777 transactions extracted frombulletins of the Istanbul Commodity Exchange published in December 1928.These sources provide detailed information on commodity type, geographicalorigin, price, quantity, contract type, and the names of buyers and sellers. Incontrast to much of the trade literature that relies on administrative unit-levelethnic or religious shares, the use of transaction-level data enables a more preciseanalysis of the role of ethnic networks in commerce. Building on the theoreticalframeworks developed by Janet T. Landa (1981) and Avner Greif (1989, 1993, 2006), I also test how ethnic homophily operated through certain channels. Theempirical findings reveal the existence of a Greek trade coalition in post-OttomanIstanbul: Greek traders were significantly more likely to transact with one anotherand less likely to trade with Armenians, Jews, or Turks. Greek-Greek transactionsare associated with an average increase of approximately 26% in transaction valuein flour trade. The Greek trade coalition appears to have reduced transaction costsfor its members, equivalent to approximately 10% of the seller's profit. Since Icontrol for flour quality, the findings on transaction value and costs are notconfounded by quality-related variation. Moreover, in long-distance tradeinvolving agricultural imports, Greek traders were more likely to trade with one another. |
| Keywords: | Homophily; Greek merchants; Ottoman economic history; Interwar Turkey; Cultural networks |
| JEL: | N85 F14 D85 |
| Date: | 2025–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:46490 |
| By: | Mellab Kahina (CREAD - Research Center in Applied Economics for Development) |
| Abstract: | Agriculture and agri-food products play a significant role in Algeria's economy, although this share has declined due to the dominance of hydrocarbon exports. In 2023, agricultural exports accounted for about 5 to 7% of the country's total export value. Key Algerian agricultural exports include olive oil, citrus fruits, and dates. France remains the largest export market, receiving around 30% of Algeria's agricultural exports, followed by Italy and Spain. This article analyzes the role of agriculture in Algerian exports, identifies the main export markets, and evaluates the policies implemented to enhance the sector's competitiveness. The methodological approach relies on a quantitative analysis of recent agricultural statistics, such as the sector's share of GDP, its impact on employment, and the distribution of agricultural exports by product and country. Secondary data from institutional reports and international organizations have been used to identify major trends and challenges. Additionally, the study includes a qualitative analysis of current agricultural policies, focusing on strategies to improve sector efficiency and overcome challenges related to outdated agricultural techniques, water scarcity, and the effects of climate change. Finally, recommendations are proposed to increase Algeria's agricultural exports, including the promotion of national agricultural products, integration into global value chains, and the adoption of sustainable farming practices to strengthen competitiveness and ensure sustained sector growth. |
| Abstract: | L'agriculture et les produits agroalimentaires occupent une place significative dans l'économie algérienne, bien que cette part ait diminué en raison de la prééminence des exportations d'hydrocarbures. En 2023, les exportations agricoles représentent environ 5 à 7 % de la valeur totale des exportations du pays. Les principales exportations agricoles algériennes comprennent l'huile d'olive, les agrumes, les dattes. La France reste le premier marché d'exportation, recevant environ 30 % des exportations agricoles algériennes, suivie par l'Italie et l'Espagne. Cet article analyse la place de l'agriculture dans les exportations algériennes, identifie les principaux marchés d'exportation et évalue les politiques mises en place pour renforcer la compétitivité du secteur agricole. L'approche méthodologique repose sur une analyse quantitative des statistiques récentes relatives à l'agriculture, telles que la part du secteur dans le PIB, son impact sur l'emploi et la répartition des exportations agricoles par produit et par pays. Des données secondaires provenant de rapports institutionnels et d'organisations internationales ont été utilisées pour identifier les tendances et défis majeurs. Par ailleurs, l'étude inclut une analyse qualitative des politiques agricoles en cours, en se concentrant sur les stratégies visant à améliorer l'efficience du secteur et à surmonter les obstacles liés à l'utilisation de techniques agricoles obsolètes, la pénurie d'eau et les effets du changement climatique. Enfin, des recommandations sont proposées pour augmenter la part des exportations agricoles de l'Algérie. Celles-ci incluent la valorisation des produits agricoles nationaux, l'intégration du secteur dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales et l'adoption de pratiques agricoles durables, afin de renforcer la compétitivité et assurer une croissance soutenue du secteur. |
| Date: | 2025–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05004065 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Growth normalization after the 2022 FIFA World Cup continued with signs of activities strengthening more recently. Fiscal and external surpluses softened mainly due to lower hydrocarbon prices. Banks are healthy but pockets of vulnerabilities remain. Reform momentum has strengthened, guided by the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3). |
| Date: | 2025–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/047 |
| By: | Ms. Anja Baum; Ms. Dorothy Nampewo; Greta Polo |
| Abstract: | In 2014, the collapse of global oil prices and the resulting increase in fiscal deficits and debt triggered a wave of spending cuts, tax policy and subsidy reforms. The introduction of excises and VAT, broadening of CIT, and subsidy reform have changed the GCC fiscal landscape. Little is known on how those recent changes have been impacting the economy. This paper first highlights the fiscal history and current fiscal landscape across the GCC. It then utilizes both macroeconomic and firm-level financial data to analyze the impact of tax policy reforms on economic and firm-level outcomes using panel data techniques. The paper finds that the different reforms have had a minor impact on GDP growth, inflation, and other economic variables, while the impact on firms is more nuanced. VAT is not found to impact firm financials, suggesting well-functioning VAT refund systems. Changes to CIT, however, have some impact especially on smaller companies, while the impact of excises depends on analyzed subgroups. The emerging picture suggests that tax policy reforms have had an overall rather small impact on the GCC economies, but care should be taken in exact policy design. |
| Keywords: | GCC; tax reform; firm financials |
| Date: | 2025–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/074 |