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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Mohammed Benelmallam (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah [Fès, Maroc]) |
| Abstract: | Déclaration de divulgation :Les auteurs n'ont pas connaissance de quelconque financement qui pourrait affecter l'objectivité de cette étude. Ils assument l'entière responsabilité de tout éventuel plagiat, de l'usage de l'intelligence artificielle dans la rédaction, ainsi que des résultats présentés dans cet article. Conflit d'intérêts :Les auteurs ne signalent aucun conflit d'intérêts. |
| Keywords: | M40 Theoretical research, contrôle de gestion performance multidimensionnelle université publique capacités organisationnelles gouvernance universitaire Maroc. JEL Classification : H83 I23 M10 M40 Recherche théorique Management control multidimensional performance public university organizational capabilities university governance Morocco. JEL Classification: H83 I23 M10 M40 Theoretical research, contrôle de gestion, performance multidimensionnelle, université publique, capacités organisationnelles, gouvernance universitaire, Maroc. JEL Classification : H83, Morocco. JEL Classification: H83, university governance, organizational capabilities, public university, multidimensional performance, M40 Recherche théorique Management control, M10, I23 |
| Date: | 2026–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05696159 |
| By: | Maroine Ikhmim (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)); Sara Elouadi (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)) |
| Abstract: | Employee shareholding has increasingly been considered as a relevant mechanism for strengthening incentive alignment, organizational commitment and corporate governance. In the banking sector, this issue is particularly important because banks operate in highly regulated, risk-sensitive and strategically complex environments where governance quality and performance are closely linked to financial stability and stakeholder confidence. This study aims to explore the potential role of employee shareholding as a governance mechanism in Moroccan banks, with particular emphasis on its relationship with governance quality and banking performance. To achieve this objective, the study adopts a qualitative exploratory approach based on documentary analysis and thematic content analysis. The analysis relies on academic literature and publicly available institutional documents related to major Moroccan banks, including annual reports, governance reports, financial statements and regulatory publications. The findings suggest that employee shareholding remains insufficiently visible in public banking disclosures, while Moroccan banks give greater emphasis to governance structures, risk management, human capital development and performance indicators. The study argues that employee shareholding may contribute to banking performance indirectly through employee engagement, incentive alignment, participatory governance and stronger internal commitment. It also proposes a conceptual framework in which governance quality plays a mediating or moderating role between employee shareholding and banking performance. This research contributes to the literature by contextualizing employee shareholding in the Moroccan banking sector and by providing a basis for future empirical studies on ownership participation, governance and sustainable banking performance. |
| Keywords: | G32, M14, M12, G34, Participatory governance. JEL Classifications : G21, Human capital, Moroccan banks, Banking performance, Corporate governance, Employee ownership, Employee shareholding, Employee shareholding Employee ownership Corporate governance Banking performance Moroccan banks Human capital Participatory governance. JEL Classifications : G21 G32 G34 M12 M14 |
| Date: | 2026–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05660423 |
| By: | Hassane Bengha (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl); Kenza El Kadiri (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl) |
| Abstract: | Business creation represents a major strategic challenge for Morocco's economic development. Yet, despite public policy efforts, the entrepreneurial intention of higher education graduates remains structurally low and primarily driven by necessity rather than opportunity (GEM Morocco, 2024). This article examines the role of institutional quality as an underestimated determinant of entrepreneurial intention. In terms of methodological approach, this work adopts a conceptual and theoretical design of a hypothetico-deductive nature: drawing on a review of the empirical literature on entrepreneurship and institutions in emerging and Moroccan economies, it builds an integrative framework combining the theory of planned behavior (Ajzen, 1991), institutional theory (North, 1990) and self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000). Four institutional dimensions are identified, namely regulatory quality, rule of law, control of corruption and socio-cultural norms, each exerting a specific effect on the formation of intention. The main conclusion of this work is the proposal of an original conceptual model, the Institutional Model of Entrepreneurial Intention (IMEI), which theorizes the mechanisms by which these institutional dimensions influence the three antecedents of intention identified by Ajzen, namely attitude towards entrepreneurship, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control, and from which five research hypotheses are derived. This model will be the subject of a subsequent empirical validation, of a positivist stance and quantitative methodology (structural equation modeling), on a sample of 350 Moroccan university graduates from three regions with contrasting institutional profiles. This work helps fill a gap in the Moroccan entrepreneurship literature by explicitly integrating the institutional dimension as an explanatory variable of intention rather than of the act of creation. |
| Abstract: | Résumé. La création d'entreprise constitue un enjeu stratégique majeur pour le développement économique du Maroc. Pourtant, malgré les efforts des politiques publiques, l'intention entrepreneuriale des diplômés du supérieur demeure structurellement faible et principalement motivée par la nécessité plutôt que par l'opportunité (GEM Morocco, 2024). Cet article interroge le rôle de la qualité institutionnelle comme déterminant sous-estimé de l'intention entrepreneuriale. Sur le plan de l'approche méthodologique, ce travail relève d'une démarche conceptuelle et théorique, de nature hypothético-déductive : à partir d'une revue de la littérature empirique sur l'entrepreneuriat et les institutions dans les économies émergentes et au Maroc, il construit un cadre intégratif croisant la théorie du comportement planifié (Ajzen, 1991), la théorie institutionnelle (North, 1990) et la théorie de l'autodétermination (Deci et Ryan, 2000). Quatre dimensions institutionnelles sont identifiées, à savoir la qualité réglementaire, l'État de droit, le contrôle de la corruption et les normes socioculturelles, chacune exerçant un effet spécifique sur la formation de l'intention. La principale conclusion de ce travail est la proposition d'un modèle conceptuel original, le modèle Institutionnel de l'Intention Entrepreneuriale (MIIE), qui théorise les mécanismes par lesquels ces dimensions institutionnelles influencent les trois antécédents de l'intention identifiés par Ajzen, à savoir l'attitude envers l'entrepreneuriat, les normes subjectives et le contrôle comportemental perçu, et dont sont dérivées cinq hypothèses de recherche. Ce modèle fera l'objet d'une validation empirique ultérieure, de posture positiviste et de méthodologie quantitative (modélisation par équations structurelles), auprès d'un échantillon de 350 diplômés universitaires marocains issus de trois régions aux profils institutionnels contrastés. Ce travail contribue à combler un déficit de la littérature marocaine sur l'entrepreneuriat en intégrant explicitement la dimension institutionnelle comme variable explicative de l'intention plutôt que de l'acte de création. Mots-clés : Intention entrepreneuriale ; Qualité institutionnelle ; Théorie du comportement planifié ; Maroc ; Economies émergentes ; modèle conceptuel. Abstract. Business creation represents a major strategic challenge for Morocco's economic development. Yet, despite public policy efforts, the entrepreneurial intention of higher education graduates remains structurally low and primarily driven by necessity rather than opportunity (GEM Morocco, 2024). This article examines the role of institutional quality as an underestimated determinant of entrepreneurial intention. In terms of methodological approach, this work adopts a conceptual and theoretical design of a hypothetico-deductive nature: drawing on a review of the empirical literature on entrepreneurship and institutions in emerging and Moroccan economies, it builds an integrative framework combining the theory of planned behavior (Ajzen, 1991), institutional theory (North, 1990) and self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000). Four institutional dimensions are identified, namely regulatory quality, rule of law, control of corruption and socio-cultural norms, each exerting a specific effect on the formation of intention. The main conclusion of this work is the proposal of an original conceptual model, the Institutional Model of Entrepreneurial Intention (IMEI), which theorizes the mechanisms by which these institutional dimensions influence the three antecedents of intention identified by Ajzen, namely attitude towards entrepreneurship, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control, and from which five research hypotheses are derived. This model will be the subject of a subsequent empirical validation, of a positivist stance and quantitative methodology (structural equation modeling), on a sample of 350 Moroccan university graduates from three regions with contrasting institutional profiles. This work helps fill a gap in the Moroccan entrepreneurship literature by explicitly integrating the institutional dimension as an explanatory variable of intention rather than of the act of creation. Keywords: Entrepreneurial intention; Institutional quality; Theory of planned behavior; Morocco; Emerging economies; Conceptual model. |
| Keywords: | African Scientific Journal, Intention entrepreneuriale ; Qualité institutionnelle ; Théorie du comportement planifié ; Maroc ; Economies émergentes ; modèle conceptuel |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05676696 |
| By: | Grakolet Gourene (Economic Commission for Africa); Zuzana Brixiova Schwidrowski (Economic Commission for Africa); Jiri Balcar (VSB - Technical University of Ostrava); Lenka Johnson Filipova (VSB - Technical University of Ostrava) |
| Abstract: | Family-owned firms account for majority of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Arab countries, but evidence on the impact of this ownership type on access to credit in the region is scarce. Yet the issue is key for understanding barriers to the emergence of dynamic private sector and growth acceleration. To reduce this knowledge gap, our paper examines links between family ownership and credit constraints faced by SMEs in Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia, utilizing the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. We find that while family-owned firms have a higher need for credit than nonfamily-owned firms, they are more likely to be discouraged from applying for it. Due to this self-selection out of credit markets, they are more credit constrained than nonfamily firms, even though their credit application rejection rates are lower. Stronger firm governance, including presence of formal business strategies and improved managerial practices, can encourage family-owned SMEs to apply for credit more often and ease their access to finance. |
| Keywords: | Family-owned SMEs, access to bank credit, firm governance, Arab Countries |
| JEL: | D22 G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:ersawp:9 |
| By: | Asma El Foutat (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar), BIGOFE - Laboratoire Business Intelligence, Gouvernance des Organisations, Finance et Politiques Economiques - Faculté des sciences juridiques économiques et sociales Ain Chock Université HASSAN II – Maroc); Mounir Boumhamdi (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar), BIGOFE - Laboratoire Business Intelligence, Gouvernance des Organisations, Finance et Politiques Economiques - Faculté des sciences juridiques économiques et sociales Ain Chock Université HASSAN II – Maroc) |
| Abstract: | In a context marked by persistent gender inequalities and the growing importance of innovation as a driver of productivity, understanding the interactions between innovation, gender, and labor productivity is becoming a central issue for emerging economies. This article presents a systematic review of the literature on the relationships between innovation, gender, and labor productivity in Morocco, with the aim of assessing the mechanisms through which these dimensions interact within firms and the labor market. Despite the abundance of studies devoted separately to innovation, gender, or productivity, the Moroccan and MENA literature remains fragmented and still offers few analyses that simultaneously integrate these three dimensions. The methodology adopted is based on the PRISMA 2020 protocol, drawing on a literature review conducted between January and March 2026 in the Scopus, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar databases. Of the 186 documents initially identified, 26 studies were ultimately selected after applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The results show that women remain structurally underrepresented in innovation- and productivityintensive sectors due to constraints related to access to financing, sectoral segregation, and socioinstitutional barriers. Although innovation is generally associated with improved productivity, its effects remain unevenly distributed across gender structures. Furthermore, the literature remains fragmented and insufficiently integrated from an analytical perspective. The research concludes that the implementation of gender-inclusive innovation policies constitutes a strategic lever for strengthening labor productivity and promoting inclusive growth in Morocco, subject to further empirical approaches and causal analyses |
| Abstract: | Dans un contexte marqué par des inégalités persistantes de genre et par l'importance croissante de l'innovation comme moteur de la productivité, la compréhension des interactions entre innovation, genre et productivité du travail devient un enjeu central pour les économies émergentes. Cet article propose une revue systématique de la littérature sur les relations entre innovation, genre et productivité du travail au Maroc, afin d'évaluer les mécanismes par lesquels ces dimensions interagissent au sein des entreprises et du marché du travail. Malgré l'abondance des travaux consacrés séparément à l'innovation, au genre ou à la productivité, la littérature marocaine et MENA demeure fragmentée et offre encore peu d'analyses intégrant simultanément ces trois dimensions. La méthodologie adoptée repose sur le protocole PRISMA 2020, à partir d'une recherche documentaire menée entre janvier et mars 2026 dans les bases Scopus, Web of Science, ScienceDirect et Google Scholar. Sur 186 documents initialement identifiés, 26 études ont finalement été retenues après application des critères d'inclusion et d'exclusion. Les résultats montrent que les femmes restent structurellement sous-représentées dans les secteurs à forte intensité d'innovation et de productivité, en raison de contraintes liées à l'accès au financement, à la ségrégation sectorielle et aux barrières socio-institutionnelles. Bien que l'innovation soit généralement associée à une amélioration de la productivité, ses effets demeurent inégalement distribués selon les structures de genre. La littérature reste par ailleurs fragmentée et insuffisamment intégrée sur le plan analytique. La recherche conclut que la mise en place de politiques d'innovation inclusives en matière de genre constitue un levier stratégique pour renforcer la productivité du travail et promouvoir une croissance inclusive au Maroc, sous réserve d'un approfondissement des approches empiriques et des analyses causales |
| Keywords: | performance, PME, productivité du travail, innovation, Genre |
| Date: | 2026–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05670163 |
| By: | Hamza Demircan |
| Abstract: | [EN] This study derives market-implied sovereign default probabilities for emerging market economies using an intensity-based reduced-form framework calibrated to sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Under a deterministic and piecewise-constant default intensity assumption, the model recovers survival and forward (conditional) default probabilities consistent with risk-neutral valuation, yielding a forward-looking term structure of sovereign credit risk. Empirical findings indicate that the term structure of implied default probabilities is generally upward sloping and that default probabilities rise during stress episodes, when the term structure may flatten or temporarily invert before normalizing. In addition, a decomposition framework is applied to Türkiye to examine the relationship between short-term default risk and a global factor extracted from other emerging market economies. The results indicate that the explanatory power of the global factor weakens over time, with a larger share of Türkiye’s default-risk variation remaining unexplained by the global factor, particularly in the post-2018 period, although the divergence narrows more recently during a period of tighter macroeconomic policy. Overall, the framework provides an approach for extracting forward-looking measures of sovereign credit risk, while the decomposition analysis provides information on sovereign risk dynamics in Türkiye. [TR] Bu calisma, gelismekte olan ulkeler icin ulke kredi temerrut takasi (CDS) farklarina kalibre edilmis yogunluk temelli indirgenmis form cercevesi kullanarak piyasa tarafindan ima edilen temerrut olasiliklarini turetmektedir. Deterministik ve kesikli sabit bir temerrut yogunlugu varsayimi altinda model, risk-notr degerleme ile uyumlu sagkalim ve ileriye donuk (kosullu) temerrut olasiliklarini elde ederek ulke kredi riskinin ileriye donuk vade yapisini olusturmaktadir. Ampirik bulgular, ima edilen temerrut olasiliklarinin vade yapisinin genel olarak yukari egimli oldugunu ve stres donemlerinde temerrut olasiliklarinin tum vadelerde artmasiyla egrinin yataylasabildigini veya gecici olarak tersine donebildigini, piyasa kosullarinin normallesmesiyle birlikte ise yeniden diklestigini gostermektedir. Buna ek olarak, Turkiye’nin kisa vadeli temerrut riski ile diger gelismekte olan ekonomilerin temerrut riski verilerinden elde edilen kuresel faktor arasindaki iliskiyi incelemek amaciyla bir ayristirma cercevesi uygulanmaktadir. Sonuclar, kuresel faktorun aciklayiciliginin zaman icerisinde zayifladigini ve ozellikle 2018 sonrasi donemde Turkiye’nin temerrut riskindeki degisimin daha buyuk bir bolumunun kuresel faktor tarafindan aciklanamadigini gostermektedir. Ancak 2024 yili sonrasinda daha siki bir makroekonomik politika cercevesiyle birlikte kuresel faktorle olan ayrismanin kismen azaldigi gorulmektedir. Genel olarak, bu cerceve ulke kredi riskine iliskin ileriye donuk gostergelerin elde edilmesine yonelik bir yaklasim sunarken, ayristirma analizi Turkiye’deki ulke risk dinamiklerine iliskin bilgi saglamaktadir. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2606 |
| By: | Imad Aarab (FSJES - Faculty of Legal, Economic, and Social Sciences of Fes); Issam Debbagh (FSJES - Faculty of Legal, Economic, and Social Sciences of Fes) |
| Abstract: | Against a backdrop of increased competition, higher education institutions, whether private or public, are compelled to implement new strategies aimed at improving the quality of the services they offer whilst meeting market demands; hence the need to carry out a diagnostic assessment of their services. This study aims to assess the quality of service as perceived by students at the Faculty of Legal, Economics and Social Sciences at Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University in Fez (FSJES-FEZ), using a rigorous quantitative cross-sectional approach based on the SERVQUAL instrument, applied to a sample of 306 students enrolled in Master's programmes for the 2025-2026 academic year. The results revealed negative gaps across the five dimensions of service quality, with Tangibility recording the most critical deficit (-3.12) and Assurance the lowest score (-1.88), for an overall average gap of (-2.53). Whilst a notable paradox emerges, the Assurance dimension, deemed the most important by 29.2% of the students surveyed, paradoxically shows the smallest deficit, whereas Tangibility show the most critical deficit, this study proposes the use of Mitchell et al.'s stakeholder framework (1997) to interpret the hierarchy of the deficits observed, as well as to draw on the theory of the adaptation of aspirations, which opens up new perspectives on how students adjust their expectations in a context of structural massification. Furthermore, the results call for targeted institutional responses concerning physical infrastructure, the digitisation of administrative procedures, and the strengthening of the human dimension of the teaching relationship. |
| Keywords: | SERVQUAL model, Quality of service, Higher education, Massification, FSJES Fez, Expectations, Perceptions, Stakeholders, Empirical Research |
| Date: | 2026–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05685655 |
| By: | Aomar Ibourk; Tayeb Ghazi |
| Abstract: | Selon la dernière enquête nationale disponible, 57 % des femmes marocaines âgées de 15 à 74 ans, soit environ 7, 6 millions de personnes, ont déclaré avoir subi au moins un acte de violence au cours des douze mois précédant l'enquête (HCP, 2019). Cette prévalence s'accompagne d'un coût économique direct et indirect estimé, pour la même période, à 2, 85 milliards de dirhams (HCP, 2019). Ces deux ordres de grandeur — humain et économique — trouvent un écho dans les indicateurs du marché du travail : le taux d'activité féminin s'établissait à 19, 1 % en 2024, contre 68, 6 % pour les hommes (HCP, 2026), et l'écart de chômage entre les sexes s'est élargi de 5, 7 points en 2019 à 9, 7 points en 2025 (Bank Al-Maghrib, 2025). Pris ensemble, ces éléments concourent à un manque à gagner associé à la faible participation économique des femmes évalué à 2, 2 % du produit intérieur brut (HCP, cité dans Ibourk & Ghazi, 2026). Face à cette ampleur statistique, la littérature disponible propose un mécanisme explicatif : la violence à l'égard des femmes y est présentée comme un déterminant susceptible d'affecter plusieurs dimensions de la participation économique, notamment la mobilité, l'accumulation de capital humain et la capacité entrepreneuriale (Ibourk & Ghazi, 2026). Ce mécanisme ne se limite pas à l'intégrité physique : les données d'enquête indiquent que les formes économique et psychologique de violence concernent respectivement 14, 2 % et 47, 8 % des femmes interrogées (HCP, 2019), ce qui suggère des voies de contrainte plus diffuses. Ces voies sont elles-mêmes entretenues par un contexte normatif spécifique : la persistance de normes sociales favorables à l'acceptation de la violence conjugale — déclarée par 38 % des femmes et 40 % des hommes enquêtés (HCP, 2019) — est associée, selon le Conseil Économique, Social et Environnemental (CESE, 2019), à une sous-déclaration et à une faible activation des mécanismes de protection existants. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp23_26 |
| By: | Abdelaaziz Ait Ali; Mahmoud Arbouch; Fahd Azaroual; Karim El Aynaoui; Adnane Lahzaoui |
| Abstract: | Morocco offers a compelling example of how a middle-income economy can navigate a more fragmented global environment, characterized by weak growth and slower convergence. Since 2022, economic activity has remained relatively strong, with growth exceeding that of many comparable economies. Non-agricultural growth has averaged 4.4% since 2022, around 1.3 percentage points above its historical average, and has accelerated to 4.8% since 2024. This performance has allowed Morocco to gradually recover from output losses incurred during the pandemic. The recovery has been mainly driven by capital accumulation, supported by a strong public investment effort and an investment rate expected to remain close to 30% of GDP. Yet this pattern also raises a familiar issue: investment-led growth can generate limited domestic spillovers when it relies heavily on imports. This weakens its impact on local production and puts pressure on the external balance. Consequently, net exports have continued to weigh on growth despite the solid performance of export-oriented sectors. At the same time, the external environment has also opened new opportunities. The reconfiguration of global value chains has increased Morocco’s attractiveness for foreign direct investment, particularly from China. In parallel, resilient remittances from Moroccans living abroad and more favorable terms of trade have supported income and domestic demand. The key concern now lies in the sustainability of this trajectory. Maintaining the current pace will require Morocco to convert the public investment impulse into stronger private investment and productivity gains, to support a structural transformation that remains incomplete. This transformation will also need to be reconsidered considering the demonstrated potential of certain tradable service activities, whose role could complement traditional manufacturing drivers. Otherwise, the current recovery may remain a phase of sustained growth, but without a sufficiently durable anchor. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp17_26 |
| By: | Abdelaaziz Ait Ali; Mahmoud Arbouch; Fahd Azaroual; Karim El Aynaoui; Adnane Lahzaoui |
| Abstract: | Morocco offers a compelling example of how a middle-income economy can navigate a more fragmented global environment, characterized by weak growth and slower convergence. Since 2022, economic activity has remained relatively strong, with growth exceeding that of many comparable economies. Non-agricultural growth has averaged 4.4% since 2022, around 1.3 percentage points above its historical average, and has accelerated to 4.8% since 2024. This performance has allowed Morocco to gradually recover from output losses incurred during the pandemic. The recovery has been mainly driven by capital accumulation, supported by a strong public investment effort and an investment rate expected to remain close to 30% of GDP. Yet this pattern also raises a familiar issue: investment-led growth can generate limited domestic spillovers when it relies heavily on imports. This weakens its impact on local production and puts pressure on the external balance. Consequently, net exports have continued to weigh on growth despite the solid performance of export-oriented sectors. At the same time, the external environment has also opened new opportunities. The reconfiguration of global value chains has increased Morocco’s attractiveness for foreign direct investment, particularly from China. In parallel, resilient remittances from Moroccans living abroad and more favorable terms of trade have supported income and domestic demand. The key concern now lies in the sustainability of this trajectory. Maintaining the current pace will require Morocco to convert the public investment impulse into stronger private investment and productivity gains, to support a structural transformation that remains incomplete. This transformation will also need to be reconsidered considering the demonstrated potential of certain tradable service activities, whose role could complement traditional manufacturing drivers. Otherwise, the current recovery may remain a phase of sustained growth, but without a sufficiently durable anchor. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:pp_17-26 |
| By: | Mehmet Selman Colak; Tuba Pelin Sumer; Selay Sahan; Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | We analyze the financial and real effects of a 2022 Turkish regulation that restricts new local currency lending to firms whose asset dollarization exceeds specified thresholds. Using novel administrative data from January 2021–December 2023 and a difference-in-differences approach combined with propensity score matching, we find a medium-term decline in local currency borrowing among affected firms with a stronger impact for credit-constrained firms. We also document spillover effects, as firms substitute local currency loans with foreign currency loans, Turkish lira trade credit, and internal foreign currency liquidity. Extended analysis indicates that employment growth and net exports of affected firms declined, while operational volatility increased. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential regulation, Borrowing limits, Dollarization, Propensity score matching, Difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | C21 G32 G38 L5 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2614 |
| By: | Abderrahim Roukaa (Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales – Agdal Université Mohammed V de Rabat, Maroc); Karima Ghazouani (Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales – Agdal Université Mohammed V de Rabat, Maroc) |
| Abstract: | Although financial technologies, or FinTech, are widely recognized for their potential to improve access to financial services in emerging markets, the structural mechanisms through which an ecosystem transforms this technological promise into effective financial inclusion remain insufficiently understood. This issue is particularly relevant in North Africa, where institutional frameworks are undergoing rapid transformation, while academic research on this topic remains relatively limited. This article addresses this gap by developing an integrative and multilevel conceptual framework that articulates six core constructs, ranging from the regulatory environment to the socio-economic impact. Drawing on a theoretical synthesis grounded in four foundational streams: the FinTech ecosystems, open innovation, financial inclusion, and ecosystem theory particularly through the contributions of Lee and Shin (2018), Chesbrough (2003), Sarma and Pais (2011), and Adner (2017), the proposed model positions open innovation as a central mediating mechanism. It represents the conceptual missing link through which the meso-level structure of the ecosystem is converted into effective technological development. Anchored in Morocco's paradoxical institutional landscape, characterized by relatively robust financial infrastructure, persistent financial exclusion, and a strong predominance of cash-based payments, the proposed framework formulates nine testable research propositions. The contribution of this article is threefold. First, it bridges two theoretical perspectives that are often examined separately: the ecosystem approach and open innovation. Second, it brings the still underexplored North African context into contemporary debates on FinTech and financial inclusion. Third, it proposes an original conceptual model that can be operationalized and empirically tested in future research, particularly through partial least squares structural equation modeling, or PLS-SEM. |
| Abstract: | Bien que les technologies financières (FinTech) soient reconnues pour leur potentiel à améliorer l'accès aux services financiers dans les marchés émergents, les mécanismes structurels par lesquels un écosystème convertit cette promesse technologique en inclusion réelle demeurent une « boîte noire ». Cette interrogation est particulièrement pertinente en Afrique du Nord, où les cadres institutionnels connaissent des transformations rapides, tandis que les travaux académiques consacrés à cette question restent relativement limités. Cet article comble ces lacunes en développant un cadre conceptuel intégrateur multiniveaux qui articule six construits cardinaux, de l'environnement réglementaire à l'impact socio-économique. Mobilisant une démarche de synthèse théorique adossée à quatre courants séminaux (Lee & Shin, 2018 ; Chesbrough, 2003 ; Sarma & Pais, 2011 ; Adner, 2017), notre modèle positionne l'innovation ouverte comme le mécanisme médiateur crucial, le chaînon manquant qui convertit la structure méso de l'écosystème en développement technologique effectif. Ancré dans le paysage institutionnel paradoxal du Maroc caractérisé par des infrastructures solides, mais une exclusion persistante et une forte prédominance de la culture de cash, le cadre formalise neuf propositions de recherche testables. La contribution de cet article est triple. Premièrement, il rapproche deux perspectives théoriques souvent traitées séparément: l'approche par les écosystèmes et celle de l'innovation ouverte. Deuxièmement, il inscrit le cas nord-africain, encore peu étudié, dans les débats contemporains sur les FinTechs et l'inclusion financière. Troisièmement, il propose un modèle conceptuel susceptible d'être testé empiriquement au moyen de la modélisation par équations structurelles selon l'approche PLS-SEM pour les futures recherches empiriques. |
| Keywords: | emerging markets., conceptual framework, financial inclusion, open innovation, FinTech ecosystem, marchés émergents, cadre conceptuel, inclusion financière, innovation ouverte, écosystème FinTech, écosystème FinTech innovation ouverte inclusion financière cadre conceptuel marchés émergents. Classification JEL : G21 G23 G28 O31 O33 O55 FinTech ecosystem open innovation financial inclusion conceptual framework emerging markets. JEL Classification: G21 G23 G28 O31 O33 O55 |
| Date: | 2026–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05691508 |
| By: | Ferid Belhaj |
| Abstract: | This essay argues that the current debate about the future of the international monetary system is not really about Gulf currencies, oil pricing, or de-dollarization in the narrow technical sense. It is about something deeper and more important: whether institutional trust can survive when geopolitical certainty is eroding. The Gulf monarchies—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman—increasingly exist in a world where the United States no longer looks like the unquestioned guarantor of regional stability. Repeated tensions with Iran, the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on Gulf infrastructure, and Washington’s cautious and calculated responses have all raised serious doubts about how far the United States would actually go to protect its Gulf partners. And yet, despite these growing doubts, the Gulf states continue to anchor their currencies overwhelmingly to the US dollar and keep the vast majority of their sovereign wealth inside American-centered financial markets. This apparent contradiction is not a puzzle. It reflects a profound transformation in how power works in the modern world. Military dominance and institutional dominance are no longer perfectly synchronized. American geopolitical supremacy may look increasingly uncertain, selective, and constrained—but the institutional architecture built around the dollar continues to command extraordinary global confidence. This essay develops four central arguments. First, reserve-currency systems do not rest on economic size alone; they rest on institutional credibility. Second, the Gulf crisis reveals that institutional power can outlast partial geopolitical decline. Third, China’s rise has not yet produced a genuine reserve-currency alternative, because the renminbi remains limited by capital controls, legal opacity, and uncertainty about how the Chinese system would behave in a serious crisis. Fourth, and most fundamentally, institutions are not alternatives to power. They are organized expressions of power. The enduring strength of the dollar reflects the way American power has been institutionalized through law, liquidity, operational continuity, and financial depth. The essay concludes that the Gulf’s continued attachment to the dollar is not primarily an expression of loyalty to Washington. It is a rational response to systemic uncertainty. In a fragmented world, increasingly shaped by sanctions, maritime vulnerability, and geopolitical volatility, the rule of law itself becomes a strategic asset. The central question of the coming decades may therefore not be whether America remains geopolitically dominant—but whether any rival system can generate comparable institutional trust at a time when uncertainty has become truly existential. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbtrad:pb30_26 |
| By: | Grigoriadis, Theocharis; Shahmohammadi, Shahrzad |
| Abstract: | We study the political careers of provincial governors in Iran and ask whether competence and loyalty shape the risk of exit from office. Using province-year panel data with province and year fixed effects, we implement two IV strategies to address selection into hard postings and measurement error. To identify competence, we use a shift-share (Bartik) "merit shifter" that interacts predetermined provincial exposure to oil-linked fiscal capacity with national oil-price movements, generating plausibly exogenous variation in measured performance across provinces over time. To identify loyalty, we instrument parliamentary turnout with election-year voting-cost shocks: election-day temperature (and nonlinear transformations) interacted with an election-year indicator, which shifts participation when voting is salient but is orthogonal to governor retention decisions conditional on fixed effects and controls. Our estimates show that higher instrumented competence increases the probability of exit, especially along the rotation margin, while loyalty has weaker and less stable effects once endogeneity is addressed. We explain the competence-exit link through a performance-driven rotation model: the center deploys high performers to difficult provinces and then reassigns them quickly once acute constraints are relieved. In that sense, crisis posts are designed for short tenures ("send Ç fix Ç move"). An alternative discipline mechanism may suggest that competent governors face removal when their actions threaten entrenched interests. Nevertheless, this mechanism receives less consistent support in baseline specifications. Identification is strong for competence (weak-IV-robust tests reject the null), and the core findings are stable across aligned specifications. Substantively, the evidence suggests that managerial capacity is leveraged intensively rather than rewarded with tenure, underscoring the importance of distinguishing rotation from punishment in authoritarian personnel management. |
| Keywords: | provincial governance, competence, loyalty, regime legitimacy, authoritarian personnel management, Iran |
| JEL: | C23 D72 D73 H77 O53 P16 P26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:342460 |
| By: | Fatima, Freeha; Ozen, Efsan Nas; Raju, Dhushyanth |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping Türkiye’s labor market by documenting patterns in skill supply, employer demand, and labor market adjustment using high-frequency digital labor market indicators from LinkedIn. The analysis focuses on the mechanisms through which AI-related change is associated with shifts in skills, hiring, occupational mobility, exposure to generative AI, and international migration. The evidence shows a relatively broad presence of foundational digital and AI literacy skills across sectors and demographic groups, alongside a persistent and increasing concentration of advanced AI engineering talent within a narrow set of occupations and industries. Measured skill penetration follows non-monotonic patterns over time, while frontier AI talent accumulates steadily, indicating a divergence between the breadth and depth of AI capability. Entry into AI roles often follows strongly path-dependent pathways, and employer demand signals for technical and AI-adjacent capabilities are only partially reflected in realized hiring, with no sustained positive divergence in AI-related hiring relative to overall labor demand. Potential exposure to generative AI varies systematically across sectors and demographic groups, with the balance between task augmentation and disruption differing across sectors rather than uniformly favoring one over the other. International migration emerges as a salient adjustment margin for highly specialized AI talent, operating alongside domestic reallocation mechanisms and influencing the availability of frontier skills within the domestic labor market. These patterns indicate that the central challenge associated with AI in Türkiye’s labor market lies not in whether AI-related capabilities will spread, but in how reallocation unfolds across skills, occupations, and workers over time. The findings highlight the role of skill formation systems, hiring and credentialing practices, occupational structures, and cross-border mobility in shaping the trajectory of labor market adju stment. The analysis also illustrates how digital labor market data can complement traditional sources by providing timely evidence on emerging skills, evolving demand, and early adjustment dynamics in middle-income economies navigating the AI transition. |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:209921 |
| By: | Yusuf Emre Akgunduz; Kubra Bolukbas; Mehmet Selman Colak; Merve Demirbas Ozbekler; Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of banks’ medium-term inflation expectations on credit supply in a major emerging market. Theoretically, higher inflation expectations can either expand credit via the Fisher effect or contract it through a risk premium channel. By linking novel survey data on banks’ macroeconomic expectations with micro-level credit records in Türkiye (2009–2019), our findings suggest that the risk-premium channel dominates. Within-firm estimations show that an increase in a bank’s inflation expectation leads to a contraction in domestic currency credit supply. These results are robust to instrumental-variable estimations and an event-study design centered on the 2018 exchange rate shock. Beyond credit volumes, higher expectations lead to elevated interest rates and tighter collateral requirements. This contraction is most pronounced for small, highly leveraged, and domestically focused firms, with adverse spillovers to investment, productivity, and export performance via firm-bank relationships. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectations, Bank behavior, Credit supply |
| JEL: | G21 E31 D84 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2616 |