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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Backed by ambitious efforts to diversify and modernize its economy and supported by a growing hydrocarbon sector, the UAE has shown significant resilience to global volatility and regional tensions, with growth in 2025 projected to outpace both the GCC and global averages. Non-oil sectors, including tourism and real estate, continue to expand, while the financial system has continued to attract foreign capital and has absorbed recent market volatility well. |
| Date: | 2025–12–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/327 |
| By: | Nur Bilge; Simone Moriconi |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data from the Turkish Household Labour Force Survey (2005–2020) to examine how Syrian refugee inflows affect gender inequalities within households. Employing a shift-share IV strategy based on the historical share of Arabic-speaking populations in Turkey in 1965, we find that increased refugee inflows are linked to greater intra-family gender inequality. We find a sizeable effect, which is closely intertwined with family formation. When both spouses work, a 10% rise in the stock of refugees may lead to between 0.8% and 3.4% increase in the gender productivity penalty within households with at least one child, while no effect is observed in childless families. These findings suggest that the motherhood channel undermines the labor market position of married native women in response to external labor supply shock induced by refugee migration. Finally, our analysis highlights the importance of sectoral characteristics, differences in education levels, and cultural factors in shaping gender specific competition and inequalities within the household. |
| Keywords: | refugees, household, inequality, local labour market |
| JEL: | D63 E24 F22 J12 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12296 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | 2025 Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2025–12–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/328 |
| By: | Yhlas Sovbetov |
| Abstract: | This paper examines influences of brand dynamics on insurance premium productions in Turkey using a dynamic GMM panel estimation technique sampling 31 insurance firms over 2005-2015. The results reveals that brands trust appears as a chief driving force behind premium production where its unit increase augments premium outputs by 5.32 million Turkish Liras (TL). Moreover, the brand value of firms also appears a statistically significant determinant of premium sales, but its size impact remains limited comparing to brand trust, i.e. a million TL increase in brand value generates only 0.02 million TL increase in sales. On the other hand, the study also documents a strong momentum driven from past years premium production with trade-off magnitude of 1 to 0.85. This might imply a higher loyalty-stickiness of customers in Turkey, as well as a self-feeding "bandwagon effect". |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.02481 |
| By: | Michele Liberatore; Anna Pettini; Alberto Tonini |
| Abstract: | This article analyses the impact of legalising cannabis production for industrial and pharmaceutical use in Morocco, paying particular attention to reducing illegal cultivation. Using an original dataset compiled from multiple sources and employing an advanced econometric approach based on the Synthetic Control Method, the study provides robust evidence of a substantial decrease in illegal production as a consequence of the reform. The results have two main implications. First, for Morocco, regulated legalisation emerges as an effective policy tool for reducing the informal economy, with positive effects on tax revenues and international trade. For Europe, and Italy in particular, the reform introduced in the North African country creates new opportunities for the supply of medical cannabis, providing an alternative or supplementary source that could help to alleviate the ongoing shortage of cannabis intended for medical use. |
| Keywords: | Morocco, cannabis, legalisation, synthetic control method, Law 13-21, rural development |
| JEL: | O17 C23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12305 |
| By: | Shaima Farhana; Dong Yua; Amirhossein Karamoozianc; Ali Al-shawafid; Amar N. Alsheavif |
| Abstract: | Using an integrated framework rooted in the TOE model enhanced with AI, this study looks at ways to improve industrial performance and environmental sustainability in fragile and rapidly transforming contexts such as those found in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Data for the research are field-based and were obtained from a total of 600 SMEs operating in both countries. Based on the questionnaires' responses by 294 managers, results from the partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) have indicated significant positive effects of AI-TOE on environmental performance (beta = 0.487) and manufacturing performance (beta = 0.759). Results indicate that AI acts as a transformative force, though its impact differs based on the maturity of infrastructure and organizational readiness. The Saudi SMEs gain from their institutional support and advanced technologies, while those in Yemen are dependent on the low-cost adoption of AI and organizational flexibility to accept structural challenges. PLS-SEM analysis of the study showed that integrating AI into the TOE dimensions accelerates operational efficiency in order to support environmental performance. Industrial performance was found to be a very important mediator in this relationship. This study responds to the call for digital transformation literature by providing an actionable framework of AI adoption in resource-constrained environments. These findings offer insights that might guide policymakers and organizations toward more resilient and sustainable operational strategies. These findings provide valuable guidance for engineering managers within the context of negotiating digital transformation and sustainability trade-offs in fragile and resource-constrained contexts. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.10333 |
| By: | Emre Akusta |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the impacts of economic growth on ecosystem in Turkiye. The study uses annual data for the period 1995-2021 and the ARDL method. The study utilizes the Ecosystem Vitality Index, a sub-dimension of the Environmental Performance Index. In addition, seven models were constructed to assess in detail the impact of economic growth on different dimensions of the ecosystem. The results show that economic growth has a significant impact in all models analyzed. However, the direction of this impact differs across ecosystem components. Economic growth is found to have a positive impact on agriculture and water resources. In these models, a 1% increase in GDP increases the agriculture and water resources indices by 0.074-0.672%. In contrast, economic growth has a negative impact on biodiversity and habitat, ecosystem services, fisheries, acid rain and total ecosystem vitality. In these models, a 1% increase in GDP reduces the indices of biodiversity and habitat, ecosystem services, fisheries, acid rain and total ecosystem vitality by 0.101-2.144%. The results suggest that the environmental costs of economic growth processes need to be considered. Environmentally friendly policies should be combined with sustainable development strategies to reduce the negative impacts of economic growth. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.02676 |
| By: | Emre Akusta |
| Abstract: | Regional disparities in the economic and social structures of countries have a great impact on their development levels. In geographically, culturally and economically diverse countries like Turkiye, determining the socioeconomic status of the provinces and regional differences is an important step for planning and implementing effective policies. Therefore, this study aims to determine the socioeconomic disparities of the provinces in Turkiye. For this purpose, a socioeconomic development index covering the economic and social dimensions of 81 provinces was constructed. For the index, 16 different indicators representing economic and social factors were used. These indicators were converted into indices using the Min-Max normalization method and Principal Component Analysis. Afterwards, using these indices, the provinces were divided into groups using the K-Means clustering algorithm and the Elbow method. In the last part of the study, the results are presented in a visual format using Scatter Plots, clustering maps and QGIS mapping tools. The results of the study show that 2 of the 81 provinces in Turkiye have very high, 30 high, 25 medium and 24 low socioeconomic indices. Istanbul and Ankara have very high socioeconomic status. In general, the provinces in western Turkiye have a high socioeconomic index, while the provinces in eastern and southeastern Anatolia face serious challenges in terms of socioeconomic indicators. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.02687 |
| By: | Emre Akusta |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the validity of jobless growth in Turkiye on sectoral basis. It analyzes the impacts of agriculture, industry, construction and services sectors on unemployment using annual data for the period 2000-2022. ARDL method is applied within the scope of the analysis. The findings are tested with FMOLS and CCR methods. The results show that growth in all sectors reduces the unemployment. A one-unit increase in the share of agriculture sector in GDP decreases the unemployment rate by 0.471 points, 0.680 points in the industrial sector, 0.899 points in the construction sector and 1.383 points in the services sector in the short-run. The long-run coefficients reveal that the impacts of sectoral growth on unemployment are stronger in the long-run than in the short-run. A one unit increase in the share of the agricultural sector in GDP decreases the unemployment rate by 2.380 points, 4.057 points in the industrial sector, 1.761 points in the construction sector and 3.664 points in the services sector in the long-run. These findings show that jobless growth is not valid in Turkiye in general. On the contrary, economic growth plays an important role in reducing unemployment. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.03821 |
| By: | Emre Akusta |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes and clusters Turkiye's 81 provinces based on their export performance. The study uses import, export and net export data for 2023. In addition, exchange rate-adjusted versions of the data were also included to eliminate the effects of exchange rate fluctuations. Spectral clustering method is used to group the export performance of cities. The optimum number of clusters was determined by the Eigen-Gap method. The Silhouette coefficient method was used to evaluate the clustering performance. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the data set was optimally separated into 3 clusters. Spectral-clustering analysis based on export performance showed that 42% of the provinces are in the "Low", 33% in the "Medium" and 25% in the "High" export performance category. In terms of import performance, 44%, 33%, 33%, and 22% of the provinces are in the "Medium", "High", and "Low" categories, respectively. In terms of net exports, 38, 35% and 27% of the provinces are in the "Low", "Medium" and "High" net export performance categories, respectively. Izmir has the highest net export performance, while Istanbul has the lowest. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.04466 |
| By: | Lofgren, Hans |
| Abstract: | Using a mathematical-programming agricultural-sector model of Egypt, this paper analyzes mechanisms for allocating scarce water and for charging the farmers the Operation and Management (O&M) costs of irrigation and drainage, currently covered by the government. The effects of cost recovery are negative but minor. A crop charge (based on crop water consumption per land unit) and a volumetric charge both discourage consumption. The former is easier to implement but does not stimulate water-saving technical change. A 15% cut in agricultural water supplies (permitting a 79% increase in non-agricultural use) raise farmer incomes and has moderate negative effects on consumer welfare and production; a 30% cut causes disproportionately larger negative effects, including large increases in the agricultural trade deficit. Efficient market-based allocations yield higher production and avoid unequal water access, associated with the inefficient alternative of forcing half the farmers to cut their use. However, water sales to farmers at prices reducing demand by 15-30% lead to 20-35% declines in farmer incomes. This suggests the need to explore reforms endowing the farmers with tradable water rights. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iffp23:97766 |
| By: | Emre Akusta |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the potential of renewable energy sources to reduce the environmental impact of military expenditures in Turkiye. ARDL method is preferred in the analysis using annual data for the period 1990-2021. In addition, an interaction term is added to the model to determine the effectiveness of renewable energy sources. The results show that military expenditures have a positive impact on CO2 emissions in the short and long run with coefficients of 0.260 and 0.196, respectively. Moreover, renewable energy use has a statistically significant negative impact on CO2 emissions in the short and long run with coefficients of -0.119 and -0.120, respectively. GDP has a positive impact on CO2 emissions in the short and long run with coefficients of 0.162 and 0.193, respectively. Although population growth does not have a statistically significant impact in the short run, it is found to increase CO2 emissions in the long run with a coefficient of 0.095. Moreover, the interaction term shows that renewable energy use reduces the environmental impact of military expenditures in Turkiye in the short and long run with coefficients of -0.130 and -0.140, respectively. The results indicate that renewable energy use can play an important role in mitigating the environmental impacts of military expenditures. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.04467 |
| By: | Raif Cergibozan; Emre Akusta |
| Abstract: | Food security refers to people's access to enough safe nutritious food in order to be able to lead a healthy active life. It also involves elements such as food availability and affordability, as well as people being able to access food that can be consumed healthily. Natural disasters, however, can seriously threaten food security. Disasters' effects on food security are especially more evident in countries such as Turkiye that are frequently exposed to natural disasters due to their geologic and geographical structure. For this reason, the study investigates the effects of natural disasters on food security in Turkiye. The research first creates the Food Security Index in order to estimate the effects of natural disasters on food security. The next phase follows the process of econometric analysis, which consists of three steps. Step one of the econometric analysis uses unit root tests to check the stationarity levels of the series. The second step uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test to examine the long-term relationship between natural disasters and food security. The third and final step estimates the effects of natural disasters on food security. According to the obtained results, the study shows earthquakes, storms, and floods to have a significant short- as well as long-term negative effect on food security. The overall impact of natural disasters on food security has also been determined to be negative. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.05445 |
| By: | Agbahey, Johanes Uriel Ibidjola |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesdoc:288510 |
| By: | Emre Akusta; Raif Cergibozan |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to prioritize renewable energy sources to achieve sustainable development in Turkiye by using fuzzy AHP method. In our study, we used 30 criteria that affect the investment in renewable energy sources. We also calculated the weights of these criteria in investment decisions. In addition, we analyzed the advantageous renewable energy sources according to each criterion. Thus, it was determined which renewable energy source is advantageous according to which criteria. The results show that the most important main criteria for renewable energy investments in Turkiye are economic, political, technical, environmental and social criteria, respectively. The most appropriate renewable energy sources according to economic, political, technical and social criteria are solar, wind, hydroelectric, |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.05444 |