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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Obbey A. Elamin (King Faisal University) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the 2023 wave of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS). This is the fifth wave of the ELMPS, following a panel of households and individuals from 1998, 2006, 2012, and 2018 into 2023. The ELMPS tracks individuals even as they form new households and includes these households in the sample. Waves since 2006 have also added refresher samples to the panel. In this paper, we describe the questionnaires, sample, fielding, and weighting of the 2023 wave. We assess and model attrition on the household and individual levels and discuss how we account for this attrition in the calculation of weights. The paper also validates the ELMPS data against other sources, such as Egypt’s Labor Force Survey. |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1748 |
| By: | Fatima El Khatabi (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid); Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso (University of Goettingen) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the trade relationship between two neighbors, Spain and Morocco, focusing on the role played by social connectedness, proxied by Facebook connections and migration flows, while controlling for singular geographical, historical, and institutional relations between the two countries, that despite the fact of being located in different continents are tied by special relations. These are partly explained by the enclaves of Ceuta, and Melilla, which share land borders with Morocco and the Saharan provinces that were previous colonies of Spain. We use a novel trade dataset between Spain and Morocco at the province level (NUTS 3) for the period from 2010 to 2018, split into 15 sectors and three transport modes. |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1769 |
| By: | Caroline Krafft (University of Minnesota); Ruotong Li (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | Women spend a disproportionate amount of time in unpaid care work compared to men. There are particularly large gender disparities in care work in countries in the Middle East and North Africa, such as Egypt. This paper explores how policies might help shift care work into the market, specifically through the education system. The research examines the impact of early childhood care and education (ECCE) on mother's time use. The paper uses the school age cutoff (in a regression discontinuity design framework) for enrollment in primary school to assess the impact of children starting primary school on mother's time use. Primary school enrollment does not significantly change the time mothers spend in care work or employment. There is some evidence that children's primary school enrollment shifts when and possibly what types of care work mothers engage in. Policies increasing access to ECCE are not guaranteed to shift care work or employment for mothers. |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1751 |
| By: | Obbey A. Elamin (King Faisal University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines university graduates’ ratings of the Bachelor of Science (BSc) program’s appropriateness regarding employability outcomes in the labor market. The study uses crosssectional data from two countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Egypt and Jordan. The graduates’ rating is modelled using the ordered response method, where we apply the ordered forests machine learning technique, and compare its results with the conventional ordered probit model. The results show that differences in the education system and labor market opportunity structure influence graduates’ ratings of the appropriateness of the BSc program. Graduates’ skill matching in their jobs is found to be the strongest factor that impacts the ratings and the satisfaction about the university degree. Policies are required to enhance graduates’ employability. The marginal effects of the ordered probit model can be implied as significant, even when the size of the effect is trivial and has no real impact on the conditional probabilities, but can easily be linked to the relative importance ranks of the covariates in the model, in contrast to the ordered forests. |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1747 |
| By: | Marouane AlayaAuthor-Name-First: Marouane (Sfax University); Eman Moustafa (African Export-Import Bank) |
| Abstract: | In this study we use a spatial methodology to explore the greenfield FDI in the aftermath of conflicts in the MENA region. Empirical results show that country risk is crucial for this type of FDI. In addition, we found that greenfield FDI and political stability in the MENA region benefit from a feedback loop effect. Furthermore, the spatial econometric regressions reveal the occurrence of spillovers (indirect effects) across the MENA countries. These spillovers do not only affect neighbors in close vicinity (neighbors of first order or contiguous neighbors), but also spread to neighbors of higher order, and might affect the whole region. |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1746 |
| By: | Esraa Mahmoud (University of Minnesota); Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution of employment in Egypt over the 2012-2023 period. We start by examining employment growth, the structure of employment and its evolution across various types of employment and workplaces. We investigate the extent of employment underutilization as measured by time-related underemployment and educational over-qualification. We also assess the evolution of employment quality in the Egyptian labor market by examining how employment regularity, coverage by social insurance, access to paid leaves and health insurance and job satisfaction have changed over time across different groups of workers. We find that there are signs of improvement in employment outcomes in the 2018 to 2023 period, but that these improvements are mostly limited to male workers and, often only to more educated and privileged workers. We partly attribute these improvements to the emergence of the “missing middle” in the Egyptian economy. |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1750 |
| By: | Chahir Zaki (University of Orléans) |
| Abstract: | The Russian war in Ukraine led to significant disruptions in trade in cereals, especially wheat and other products that are key for food security. This paper investigates the impact of the war in Ukraine on food security in Egypt through a gender lens using a newly collected dataset. The case of Egypt is of particular interest as it is a large importer of wheat; experienced other concurrent economic crises; and is among the largest economies in the Middle East and North Africa. The analysis distinguishes the impact of the war in Ukraine from other factors resulting in more fragile food security. Results indicate that the way domestic economic policies were implemented increased food insecurity caused by the war. Female headed-households and women in femaleheaded households were more strongly impacted by increasing food insecurity. Government support measures did not significantly reduce the negative implications of the war on food insecurity |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1758 |
| By: | Hassan Hamie (Poverty and Inequality Research Team, UN ESCWA); Vladimir Hlasny; Jinane Jouni |
| Abstract: | This paper characterizes several models of state intervention for tackling multidimensional poverty, encompassing alternative scenarios regarding the policymakers’ capacity to allocate resources and tailor those resources for use by households that need them most. The models are applied to pairs of national demographic surveys in five Arab countries (Algeria 2011– 2018, Egypt 2014–2018, Iraq 2011–2018, Mauritania 2011–2015, Tunisia 2011–2018), with the first rounds serving as the baseline and the second rounds serving as the time frame for achieving certain rates of poverty reduction, akin to the challenge presented by the 2030 Agenda. We evaluate the model's policy prescriptions against the observed record of changes in households’ multidimensional deprivations between the two survey rounds, and comment on the prospective policy choices revealed through those achievements. Our optimizations suggest that more cost-effective ways to reduce multidimensional poverty could entail targeting narrower subsets of living conditions. The results suggest that policymakers in Arab middle-income countries should prioritize allocation of more resources to the education sector, while policymakers in low-income countries such as Mauritania should allocate resources to education, housing and access to public services |
| Date: | 2024–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1742 |
| By: | Pinar Tat (Gebze Technical UniversityAuthor-Name: Halit Yanikkaya; Gebze Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impacts of trade on conflicts within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The findings indicate that bilateral trade has no significant impact on regional conflicts in the MENA, but this veils substantial heterogeneity. The multilateral trade of manufacturing and agriculture sectors increases the number of conflicts within the region, possibly due to decreased dependence on bilateral ties. The positive effect of multilateral trade is mainly driven by the oil importer MENA countries. Membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is associated with a reduction in conflicts. The results vary when considering oil-exporting and oil-importing countries separately, revealing nuances in the relationship between trade and conflicts within the MENA region. |
| Date: | 2024–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1745 |
| By: | Ali T. Akarca (University of Illinois); Aysit Tansel (Institute for Study of Labor (IZA)); Senay Üçdogruk Birecikli (Dokuz Eylül University) |
| Abstract: | Women’s electoral participation in Turkey is studied, using the probit procedure. The novelty of the study is the use of both micro-level and macro-level variables simultaneously. Furthermore, a wider range of variables are used in each of these categories than other studies on turnout in Turkey, including some variables never considered before. Results show that women’s propensity to vote is related to age (at least until 49) being married and residing in an electoral district with large number of viable female candidates, positively, and to being an ethnic minority, having children under 6, living in an urban area, living in an electoral district with a large number of parliament members and large effective number of parties, negatively. Education and household wealth have inverted-U shaped relationships with women’s probability to vote. Being a migrant reduces the likelihood of voting unless it occurs in a province with heavy migrant concentration and large number of parliament members. |
| Date: | 2024–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1743 |
| By: | Khaled Nasri (kholina86@yahoo.fr; University of Tunis El Manar); Mohamed Anis Ben Abdallah (University of Carthage) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the nexus between natural resource volatility (NRV) and inclusive growth (IG) while examining the moderating impact of financial development (FD) and institutional quality (IQ) across 18 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries from 2002 to 2021. The empirical results —which are based on the two-step System Generalized Methods of Moments (SYS-GMM) estimation—reveal that NRV positively affects IG after controlling for moderation effects, implying that natural resources are a blessing in MENA. The results also indicate that the proposed moderators play a pivotal role in shaping the impact of volatility on IG. Institutions and volatility exhibit a synergistic relationship in promoting inclusivity in the MENA region. Nonetheless, volatility and FD are substitutive in promoting IG since FD (NRV) weakens the positive impact of volatility (FD). Overall, IQ and FD have a net positive impact on IG. However, the positive effect of FD is entirely negated at a volatility threshold of 34 percent, whereas IQ has a net positive effect beyond a volatility threshold of 17 percent. Additionally, the net positive impact of volatility on IG is nullified at an FD threshold of 80 percent. Policymakers in MENA are advised to be prudent with these thresholds while pursuing shared prosperity from their abundant natural resources |
| Date: | 2024–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1739 |
| By: | Ahmed Chafai (University of Manouba); Rym Oueslati (University of Tunis); Hatem Salah (University of Manouba) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to explore the curvilinear relationship between innovation and sustainable firm growth, as well as the moderating role of bank funding on research and development (R&D), institutional quality and bank market power on this nexus. To do this, we selected a sample of 424 companies listed in ten Arab countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates) over the period 2010-2022. Using a systemic GMM model, the results show that there is a curvilinear (inverted U-shaped) link between innovation and sustainable firm growth. In addition, the outcome shows that bank funding on R&D, institutional quality and bank market power moderate the curvilinear nexus between innovation and sustainable firm growth. This study offers valuable insights into strategic innovation planning and elaboration of important implications by highlighting the role of bank funding on R&D, institutional quality and the power of the banking market in promoting firm sustainability. |
| Date: | 2025–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1819 |
| By: | Caroline Krafft (University of Minnesota); Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota); Zoe McKillip (St. Catherine University) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the 2023 and earlier waves of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey, this paper investigates trends in labor supply in Egypt, with a particular focus on declines in participation and employment rates among both men and women over time. The paper explores the demographic drivers of labor supply, including fertility and population growth, as well as trends in educational attainment. Analyses of labor supply focus on labor force participation, employment, and unemployment by key demographic characteristics: sex, age, and education. A particular focus of the paper is understanding the evolution of the share of youth not in education, employment, or training (NEET). The findings indicate that falling unemployment rates in Egypt are not the result of improved employment prospects, but due instead to temporarily reduced demographic pressures in the labor market and falling labor force participation among both men and women. Men are taking longer to transition to employment after school as indicated by increasing NEET and joblessness rates. Educated women are increasingly withdrawing from the labor force |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1749 |
| By: | Eslam A. Hassanein (, Beni Suef University); Nourhan A. Hassan (nourhan-hassan@feps.edu.eg) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the nexus between natural resource volatility (NRV) and inclusive growth (IG) while examining the moderating impact of financial development (FD) and institutional quality (IQ) across 18 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries from 2002 to 2021. The empirical results —which are based on the two-step System Generalized Methods of Moments (SYS-GMM) estimation—reveal that NRV positively affects IG after controlling for moderation effects, implying that natural resources are a blessing in MENA. The results also indicate that the proposed moderators play a pivotal role in shaping the impact of volatility on IG. Institutions and volatility exhibit a synergistic relationship in promoting inclusivity in the MENA region. Nonetheless, volatility and FD are substitutive in promoting IG since FD (NRV) weakens the positive impact of volatility (FD). Overall, IQ and FD have a net positive impact on IG. However, the positive effect of FD is entirely negated at a volatility threshold of 34 percent, whereas IQ has a net positive effect beyond a volatility threshold of 17 percent. Additionally, the net positive impact of volatility on IG is nullified at an FD threshold of 80 percent. Policymakers in MENA are advised to be prudent with these thresholds while pursuing shared prosperity from their abundant natural resources |
| Date: | 2024–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1738 |
| By: | Anda David (Agence Française de Développement Author-Name: Jackline Wahba; University of Southampton); Rawane Yasser (Agence Française de Développement) |
| Abstract: | Egypt has experienced a major economic crisis since March 2022, which has had substantial impacts on food inflation and standards of living. This crisis was compounded by the COVID19 pandemic, its global implications, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For many Egyptians, international temporary migration and remittances have been coping mechanisms, allowing them to diversify their income. This paper investigates the role played by international migration as a livelihood strategy during the recent economic crisis. It highlights the trends and patterns of current overseas migration, return migration, remittances and migration intentions for the period covering the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis. The findings show that while the international emigration rate has increased, the return migration rate has substantially declined. In addition, the profile of migrants has changed as the share of low educated migrants increased, as well as the share of those holding precarious jobs prior to migrating. There results suggest that recent economic conditions in Egypt may be reshaping the patterns of Egyptian migration. |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1753 |
| By: | Rawane Yasser (Agence Française de Développement.); Irene Selwaness (Cairo University, Egypt); Cecilia Poggi (Agence Française de Développement) |
| Abstract: | The dynamic intersection between technology and labor constitutes the focal point of labor market policies designed to align with technological transitions. In this context, studying the characteristics of digitized work content and work relations is crucial for comprehending the evolving landscape of the Egyptian labor market and accompanying policymaking. This paper investigates the evolution of the use of technology in the workplace in Egypt; we begin by exploring changes in computer and internet use, with particular attention to potential firms’ responses to COVID-19 (e.g., remote working…etc.). Further, we also assess the types and prevalence of digital/computer skills across the whole population, in the labor force, and by type of jobs. Finally, the paper examines employment through digital platforms in Egypt.Length: 41 |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1754 |
| By: | Arkebe Oqubay |
| Abstract: | Morocco has emerged as one of Africa's success stories, achieving significant progress in economic transformation and the green transition over the past 25 years. Continuing and deepening this transformation is essential to reach the country’s goal of becoming a high-income economy in the coming decades. Significant challenges include managing the risk of the middle-income trap, addressing demographic pressures, promoting inclusive growth, ensuring environmental sustainability, and advancing the broader green transition. A vital part of this effort is developing innovation and technological capabilities, promoting sustainable industrialization, increasing productivity, tackling youth unemployment, and improving labor markets and workforce quality. Morocco’s experience offers valuable lessons for African economic development by demonstrating the potential for industrial transformation, challenging widespread pessimism about Africa’s prospects for industrialization, and positioning Morocco as a potential driver of growth. This paper reviews and synthesizes the transformation of the Moroccan economy, covering the period from 1970 to 2025 and examines government policies and provides insights into Moroccan economic change and lessons for Africa. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rp14_25 |
| By: | Fatma M. Utku-Ismihan; Mustafa Ismihan (Eastern Mediterranean University) |
| Abstract: | Building a strong knowledge-based economy is essential for sustained and successful longrun economic growth. However, this presents its own set of challenges, particularly for countries with endemic instability, recurrent crises, and associated low and volatile productivity and growth rates. In this context, this paper draws from the Turkish experience to investigate the role of macroeconomic instability and knowledge on productivity and growth from 1960 to 2022 by developing an augmented production function model. Chronic macroeconomic instability arising from unsound macroeconomic policies has remained a major factor causing persistent inefficiencies in Türkiye, therefore adversely affecting its productivity and output levels. Such economic policies are often associated with weak institutions—such as political institutions that fail to limit the actions of politicians— along with prevalent corruption and a significant level of political instability. The main empirical results indicate that while knowledge accumulation in Türkiye is a critical driver of productivity and growth, the Turkish economy is also persistently and unfavorably affected by chronic macroeconomic instability fueled by recurring unsound policies and deep institutional problems. |
| Date: | 2024–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1740 |
| By: | Monia Ghazali (University of Carthage); Rim Mouelhi (University of Manouba) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the pattern of deindustrialization in MENA countries to emphasize its main features and impacts on economic development. Using data from 1960 to 2018, we examine deindustrialization patterns and investigate their influence on overall growth over different periods. Since the contribution of services to growth has increased in recent decades, we also investigate the role and impact of services on growth. The main results suggest that MENA countries started to deindustrialize at a low level of GDP per capita, which is a sign of premature deindustrialization. When deindustrialization occurs at an earlier stage of development, countries don’t benefit from the manufacturing sector’s opportunities and externalities, such as technological penetration, skill development, openness, and technological transfers. The results also suggest that manufacturing weight exerts a positive effect on overall growth over the different considered periodsin Tunisia, thereby confirming itsrole as an engine of growth. However, manufacturing weight has shown a declining positive impact over time as it has been confined to low-technology, assembly-oriented, and outsourced operations characterized by a lack of sophistication. The results also show a persistent negative relationship between service weight and GDP per capita growth over the considered periods. In fact, the expansion of the services sector in recent decades was largely driven by lowproductivity services such as trade (largely in the informal sector), government services, and (to a lesser extent) modern, highly productive services. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1733 |
| By: | Irene Selwaness (Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University); Hania Sholkamy (, American University in Cairo) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the trends in social protection coverage in Egypt over the 2006-2023 period. The different forms of protection that we analyze include contributory social insurance schemes, employment-related pensions, non-contributory social-assistance cash transfers including temporary cash transfers due to COVID-19, and food ration cards. In addition to examining patterns of coverage, the paper considers the value of transfers and benefits, in as much as possible, to assess the importance of coverage in terms of how much beneficiaries of different programs receive. We examine coverage rates by different household characteristics such as household wealth quintile, head of household sex, household composition in terms of presence of children and elderly, head of household labor market status, and region. The paper frames these findings in terms of the overall approach to social protection and presents a commentary on the implications of these observed trends. |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1756 |
| By: | Amirah El-Haddad (German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)Author-Name: Chahir Zaki; University of Orléans and Laboratoire d'Economie d''Orléans) |
| Abstract: | We use household enterprise data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Surveys (ELMPS) in 1998, 2006, 2012, 2012 and 2023 to track the state of household micro and small enterprises (MSEs), particularly considering the enactment of the new micro, small, and medium enterprise (MSME) law in 2020. In 2023, we find that the sector continues to be dominated by informal, male-owned microenterprises. It also exhibits limited diversification and sophistication. There has been a trend toward informalization. Despite numerous initiatives and reforms in the institutional and regulatory environment, MSEs remain heavily self-financed. These characteristics suggest that the sector functions more as a 'survival sector' or a last-resort employer rather than as a competitive, high-tech and high-value one. With the challenges facing the sector and barriers to entry into the formal sector, this sector is the only way to earn a living for many people. |
| Date: | 2025–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1772 |
| By: | Seda Ekmen Özçelik (Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University); Emre Özçelik (ozemre@metu.edu.tr) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between economic and financial globalization and peace has been a subject of speculation and disagreement. Classical conceptions proposed that openness may act as a potent catalyst for peace. However, alternative perspectives have questioned this perspective by claiming that free trade can potentially weaken countries' national security. This debate underscores the need for empirical investigations beyond theoretical conjecture, providing a data-driven examination of the relationship between trade and financial globalization, and military conflict. This paper tries to explore the complex relationship between economic and financial integration and geopolitical conflicts, by focusing on the MENA region. Our analysis covers 142 countries over the period 2009-2020. Our results confirm that global trade liberalization is linked with a decline in the level of military conflicts in countries around the world. On the other hand, financial globalization increases overall conflict. The relationship between financial openness and conflict also varies depending on the sub-components of conflict When we focus on the MENA region, our results indicate that oil-importing MENA countries are more likely to benefit from trade globalization while trade partnership is not an effective factor in preventing military conflict in oil-exporters. Our results also show that financial globalization exacerbates conflict levels in oil-exporter MENA countries while it has insignificant impact on oil-importers. We hope to provide insights into the various ways in which trade and financial integration can either promote peace or create instability on a global scale. As there seems to be a complex relationship between peace on the one hand, and trade and financial openness on the other, exploring this relationship, especially for the “heated” regions like the MENA can well pave the way for constructing a political-economy framework within which policy options and priorities can be identified rationally and reasonably. |
| Date: | 2024–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1741 |
| By: | Rania Roushdy (The Department of Economics, The American University in CairoAuthor-Name: Nouran ElKhouly) |
| Abstract: | There is a vast literature on conceptually formulating education-occupation mismatch and on measuring over- and under-education as compared to the job skills required. Fewer studies are focused on identifying the correlates and consequences of such a mismatch, particularly in the developing world. Accordingly, the main objective of this paper is to contribute to the limited literature on education-occupation mismatch in Egypt and compare the extent of the mismatch using two different approaches: (1) the self-reported and (2) the statistical/realized match approaches. Using data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2023, this paper sheds light on the nature of the education-occupation mismatch phenomena in the Egyptian labor market. The paper compares the characteristics of the overeducated, undereducated, and well-matched workers, wage penalties for over- or under-education, and their sense of job satisfaction. Analyses are focused on vocational secondary and university education graduates as these are the two terminal educational tracks in Egypt. The results show that undereducation is not prevalent in the Egyptian labor market, while overeducation is very common among both vocational secondary and university graduates. Job satisfaction was least prevalent among the overeducated. As compared to the well-matched group, overeducation was generally associated with a wage penalty, but undereducation was associated with a wage premium among vocational secondary graduates and with a wage penalty among university graduates. Mismatch was also associated with skills acquisition and job-skill requirements. The results of the skills analysis confirm the previous literature highlighting the importance of acquiring skills over credentials to effectively address the existing education-occupation mismatch in the Egyptian labor market.. |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1757 |
| By: | Hatem Jemmali (University of Manouba); Rabeh Morrar (An-Najah National University); Fernando Rios-Avila (Levy Economics Institute of Bard College) |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades, Egypt has undergone substantial economic and political transformations that have directly influenced labor market outcomes, particularly in terms of wages and earnings. In this paper, we analyze the patterns and dynamics of wage inequality in Egypt from 2006 to 2021. Our findings show that real wages exhibit an upward trend over the period 2006-16, followed by a decline after the floating of the national currency. They also experience a phase of stagnant inequality prior to 2016 and an overall decline over the entire period. Using an intertemporal decomposition approach based on a generalization of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method, we find evidence that the observed changes in wage inequality are mainly driven by changes in returns to demographic and labor market characteristics (wage structure effect). The detailed decomposition of the Gini coefficient reveals that, only for the pre-Arab Spring period, changes in returns to education significantly contribute to the decline of wage inequality in Egypt. This implies that implementing improved redistributive policies primarily focused on elevating educational levels is crucial to sustaining these trends over an extended period. In other words, policies that specifically target educational advancement can play a key role in ensuring the longevity of these positive trends. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1737 |
| By: | Abdullah Demir (Abdullah Gül University); Ali Ersin Dinçer (Abdullah Gül University); N. Nergiz Dinçer (TED University) |
| Abstract: | Disaster resilience is a protective feature aimed at reducing the effects of natural disaster events and losses resulting from these events. The aim of this study is to propose a disaster resilience index (DRI) for the MENA countries, to facilitate a more comprehensive understanding of disaster resilience in the region. The contributions of the paper to the literature are (i) calculating disaster resilience index of disaster prone MENA countries which are mostly missing in the literature, (ii) incorporating the indicators to the index through a systematic examination of indicators in the existing literature, (iii) integrating geospatial data on disaster risk from GIS into the DRI, (iv) adding the natural hazard risk index to the DRI, (v) systematically examining the impact of each indicator on the DRI, so identifying the most effective indicators for each country, and (vi) establishing a correlation between the DRI and economic losses, thereby revealing the efficacy and robustness of the newly developed DRI index developed in this study. The findings reveal a diverse landscape of disaster resilience in the MENA region, with some countries demonstrating high preparedness and resilience, while others face significant challenges. The classification of the DRI enables a detailed comprehension of the strengths and vulnerabilities of the region concerning its capacity to withstand and recover from disasters. The inclusion of novel dimensions such as geographical resilience and natural hazard risk provides a more holistic perspective for policymakers, practitioners, and researchers. |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1763 |
| By: | Meltem Dayioglu (TED University); Sezgin Polat (Galatasaray University) |
| Abstract: | Women’s labor market participation rate in Turkey hit its lowest value in the mid 2000s at 23% and has been rising since then. The latest statistics put this figure at 35.1%. Just as more women are entering the labor market and turning to wage employment, occupational gender segregation threatens their labor market attachment. In this paper, we examine occupational gender segregation and consider its impact on wages. Using representative micro-data, we find that a unit increase in the segregation index reduces wages received by women by 6.2% but has only a slightly negative effect (0.8%) on men. Furthermore, we observe the most severe wage penalty (13.6%) among the most educated women. Although more women are making inroads into male jobs, those who remain in relatively female-dominated jobs are found to suffer a higher wage penalty. Addressing occupational segregation is important to preserve the momentum of women’s participation. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1731 |
| By: | Marian Atallah (Cairo University); Marina Hesham (Cairo University and University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | Using the most recent wave of Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey data from 2023, this paper provides an overview of the gender gap in unpaid care work and how it relates to labor market outcomes. With the inclusion of a 24-hour time use module in ELMPS 2023, we are able to examine women's time use in terms of unpaid care work and paid employment activities relative to their male counterparts, taking into account their socioeconomic profiles. The paper concludes by delving into perceptions and attitudes regarding gender norms, and how they correlate with women’s time use patterns in Egypt. Results show that compared with men, women spent a disproportionate amount of time on unpaid care work in Egyptian households. Marriage and childbearing were associated with longer hours dedicated to unpaid care work activities. Employed women faced a double burden of having to balance their paid and unpaid work commitments, with married women who were wage employed being the most heavily penalized. Finally, our analysis of the correlation between gender norms and time use patterns shows that more egalitarian gender norms did not necessarily translate into a lower gender gap in the actual time spent on unpaid care work.Length: 51 |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1755 |
| By: | Maha Mili (University of CarthageAuthor-Email: maha.mili@ept.ucar.tn); Mohamed Adel Dhif (Universit´e de Carthage); Houyem Chekki (Universite de la Manouba) |
| Abstract: | Under global warming conditions, projections from the Tunisian National Institute of Meteorology indicate that Tunisia will face decreased annual rainfall and increased demand for water resources in the coming years. This research aims to quantify the potential impacts of water scarcity on the Tunisian economy, with a particular focus on the agricultural sector, which is crucial for food security and economic stability. Using a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, we analyze the effects of four water-related hypotheses on GDP growth, social welfare, and trade balance by 2050. Then, we simulate three specific water use efficiency (WUE) scenarios—rehabilitation of water network infrastructure, modernization of irrigation systems, and the use of plant varieties with less water requirements—to assess their effectiveness in mitigating water scarcity. The simulation results reveal that declining water availability significantly hampers agricultural production, adversely affecting the food processing sector and exacerbating food security concerns. These limitations lead to an increased trade balance deficit and a projected decline in GDP by 2050. In contrast, improvements in WUE partially alleviate these impacts by enhancing agricultural productivity, reducing imports, and boosting exports, which collectively improve the trade balance and stimulate GDP growth. The findings underscore the urgent need for practical actions to conserve water resources and highlight the importance of negotiating trade agreements that prioritize low-water-requiring products while managing the import of more waterintensive goods. |
| Date: | 2025–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1798 |
| By: | Yusuf Emre Akgunduz (Sabanci University); Ugur Aytun (Dumlupinar University); Seyit Mumin Cilasun (TED University & ERF) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the surge in industrial robot usage has been prominently driven by labor costs. However, the impact of cost-related shocks on firms’ decisions to integrate robots has received limited attention. This study investigates how manufacturing firms in Turkey reacted to a sudden 33.5% increase in the minimum wage in 2016 regarding their robot importation decisions. Utilizing administrative employer-employee data, firm-level trade, and balance sheet data, and employing a difference-in-differences approach with a continuous treatment, we find that the minimum wage shock overall does not significantly affect robot adoption. Yet, this effect varies by firm size; medium-sized firms show a positive and significant propensity to adopt robots, which is even more pronounced in large firms. Quantitatively, a one-point increase in the share of minimum wage employment in total employment leads to a 0.4% increase in the probability of importing robots for medium firms and a 2.7% increase for large firms. These findings are consistent across both extensive and intensive margins of robot adoption. Firms with a high intensity of blue-collar and routine task workers are particularly more likely to import robot in response to a minimum wage shock. Moreover, competitive pressures in the industries also spur firms towards robot adoption |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1768 |
| By: | Hanan AbdelKhalik Abouelfarag (Damanhour University); Noha Nagi Elboghdadly (Faculty of Economic Studies and Political Science) |
| Abstract: | Financial inclusion is one of the key enablers of driving economic growth, alleviating poverty, and consequently achieving inclusive growth. Although the relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth has been widely investigated, its relationship with inclusive growth remains unexplored. This paper examines the causality between financial inclusion and inclusive growth in Egypt during the period 2004-2022. The novelty of this study resides in constructing two composite indices using a Principal Components Analysis (PCA). The first composite index is for financial inclusion, while the second is a new multidimensional index for inclusive growth. The results reveal that the Inclusive Growth Index experiences an upward trend over the study period while the Financial Inclusion Index starts to increase in 2018. The results of the Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test show a bidirectional causality between financial inclusion and three of the sub-indices of inclusive growth as well as the overall inclusive growth index. The empirical evidence highlights that financial inclusion efforts will not achieve their targeted outcome unless a simultaneous inclusive growth strategy is conducted. Moreover, improving governance indicators is crucial to promoting inclusive growth. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1736 |
| By: | Saleh Goltabar (Academic Center for Education, Culture, and Research); Iman Cheratian (Academic Center for Education, Culture, and Research (ACECR)); Hamed Najaf (Economist, UN Administrative and Budgetary Expert, Iran Representative) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between supply chain diversification (SCD) and the persistence of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in Iran, with a focus on the moderating role of external finance. Using a Probit regression analysis and marginal effect estimations on a sample of 480 firms, the study reveals that SCD positively influences the persistence of firms with full access to external finance. However, for firms lacking external finance or relying solely on internal finance, SCD reduces their probability of persistence. These findings underscore the essential role of external finance in enabling MSMEs to leverage SCD as a resilience strategy. The paper provides policy recommendations to enhance MSMEs' access to external finance, especially in regions affected by sanctions. |
| Date: | 2025–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1774 |
| By: | Mohammad Al-Hashel (Qatar University); Atef Alrashidi (Saudi Central Bank); Youssef Saidi (Gulf Monetary Council) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of oil supply and demand shocks in monetary policy stance among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) framework and annual panel data over the period 1980-2019. The impulse response functions show that under the symmetric definition of oil shocks (‘all’ shocks), the inflation shock leads to a contractionary monetary policy in GCC countries. Nevertheless, based on asymmetric supply-driven and demand-driven specifications, we find clear evidence of a differentiated reaction of monetary policy to asymmetric oil-induced inflation shocks. Following an oil demand-induced inflation shock, the monetary policy stance remains neutral or becomes accommodative (Dovish). On the other side, the real interest rate in GCC countries increases in response to the anticipated oil supply-induced inflation shock, suggesting that monetary policy stance may become contractionary (Hawkish). With regard to policy implications, as previously experienced, the monetary policy stance in GCC countries must be sensitive to the source of the oil-induced inflation shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1735 |
| By: | Yusra Alkasasbeh (Howard University) |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the inequalities of opportunities in monthly wages in the Jordanian labor market, drawing on Roemer (1993)’s distinction between circumstances and other unobserved/unexplained variables (luck, endowed genetics, culture, native ability) which for convenience we call effort. I borrow the parametric approach developed by Bourguignon, Ferreira, and Menéndez (2007) to calculate the shares of “unfair” inequality and analyze the main drivers of inequality of opportunity for the entire population and gender/birth region subgroups, using the nationally representative Jordan labor market panel surveys for 2010 and 2016. Also complementary analyses of inequality of opportunity was conducted; the stochastic dominance test and generalized lorenz curves Lefranc, Pistolesi, and Trannoy (2008), which allowed to visualize the magnitude of the inequality of opportunities. Inequality of opportunity shares are small and decline in the second survey wave. Women and both north and south-born subgroups experience greater unfair inequality. The main drivers across the sample are parental education, father’s occupation, and employment sector. Stochastic dominance tests confirm advantages for individuals with publicly employed fathers, white-collar fathers, highly educated parents, and men.Length: 36 |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1759 |
| By: | Mahmoud Arbouch; Eduardo Amaral Haddad |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the theoretical specification and current developments of a Spatial (Interprovincial) Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model for Morocco. The model is formulated as a Johansen-type CGE system, solved in linearized form, and is designed to analyze the regional and national impacts of policy shocks within an integrated interregional economic framework. The Moroccan economy is disaggregated into 72 provinces, 20 production sectors, multiple institutional agents, and an external sector, allowing for detailed representation of interprovincial trade, production linkages, and income generation. Production technologies combine nested CES and Leontief structures, capturing substitution possibilities among regional and foreign sources of intermediate inputs and primary factors, while household behavior follows a Stone-Geary (Linear Expenditure System) specification. The model incorporates explicit treatments of investment allocation, capital accumulation, labor markets, migration, government behavior, and price formation under constant returns to scale, with extensions to allow for agglomeration economies. Calibration is based on a top- down disaggregation of the national input-output system for 2019, complemented by demographic and fiscal data, and parameterized using a combination of econometric estimates and standard values from the literature. In addition, the paper introduces a CO₂-emissions module that enables the simulation of carbon taxation policies and interregional revenue recycling schemes. The SCGE model provides a flexible and internally consistent tool for evaluating the regional distributional, environmental, and macroeconomic effects of structural reforms and climate-related policies in Morocco. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rp18_25 |
| By: | Hala Abou-Ali (Cairo UniversityAuthor-Name: Mona Amer; Cairo University) |
| Abstract: | The global shift toward green economies underscores the need to better understand and measure the labor market changes driven by the low-carbon transition. This paper explores the characteristics of Egypt's labor market in light of the escalating importance of sustainable development, focusing on the composition and differentiation of green jobs compared to nongreen jobs. It addresses the scarcity of studies on green jobs in Egypt by leveraging Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) data and applying the International Labour Organization’s(ILO) definition to identify and categorize these jobs. Using newly incorporated ELMPS 2023 questions on job characteristics tied to environmentally friendly practices, this analysis differentiates jobs based on their degree of greenness, i.e., whether they focus on ecofriendly processes, both processes and output, or output alone. It also assesses the extent of greenness by examining the number of environmental aspects associated with each job. The paper further explores the distribution of green jobs across economic activity, occupation, employment status, gender, education, and age groups while comparing the attractiveness of green and non-green jobs in terms of wages, social benefits, and job stability. Finally, it analyzes the potential for expanding green jobs by examining skill requirements and educational trends.Length: 48 |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1761 |
| By: | Mohamed Safouane Ben Aıssa (University of Tunis ElManar); Firas Nfikha (University of Tunis ElManar) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the transmission of monetary policy in an economy characterized by heterogeneous households and a sizable informal sector. We construct a consumption-based measure of informality at the household level which we use to estimate the Informality Engel Curve. The results are then reproduced endogenously in a dual-sector Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) Model. We test the effects of informality across different model specifications and at different informal sector sizes and then estimate the model’s dynamics for the Tunisian economy using the Bayesian method in a novel framework. Our results reveal that: (i) Monetary shocks from our HANK model are stronger and more effective, in terms of sacrifice ratio, than in other specifications, but within our model, the prevalence of informality dampens transmission and increases its cost. (ii) Accounting for informality doesn’t appear to undermine the transmission of monetary shocks in Tunisia but restrictive policy favors the expansion of the informal sector and affects informal workers the least. (iii) Wealth remains the primary factor influencing household responses to monetary shocks, but employment status is particularly significant among lower-wealth households. |
| Date: | 2025–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1820 |
| By: | Shireen AlAzzawi (Santa Clara UniversityAuthor-Name: Vladimir Hlasny) |
| Abstract: | High inequality of opportunities for early childhood development is a major social challenge in the Arab region. This study evaluates the role of mothers’ employment status on children’s developmental outcomes as measured by a set of health and education indicators across sixteen low- and middle-income Arab countries during the years 2002–2015. First, we confirm that many Arab children receive inadequate access to qualified prenatal and delivery care, many fail to be vaccinated or receive an inadequate supply of iodine. Disproportionately many children thus become stunted and underweight, or die before their first birthday. Significant deficiencies exist also in children’s opportunities for cognitive development: enrolment in nurseries and pre-school programs, and cognitive stimulation at home. Meanwhile, violent disciplining and exploitation of children for housework are widespread. Second, our health-survey data confirm that young Arab mothers tend to hold lower-level, precarious work even relative to the notoriously poor out-ofsurvey benchmarks for all women. Mothers’ employment affects children’s outcomes systematically and significantly, with more-formal positions in the labor market being responsible for generally better nutritional outcomes of children. This is the case for children’s risk of stunting and wasting, and across most occupation types also for being underweight. This differs substantially across countries and years, and across children’s specific circumstances, suggesting that children’s vulnerabilities are interrelated and exacerbate each other. Public policy should focus on lifting women’s opportunities in the labor market and on expanding quality daycare services especially in underserved areas. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1732 |
| By: | Yasmine Kamal (Cairo UniversityAuthor-Name: Mahmoud Mohieldin; Cairo University); Myriam Ramzy (Cairo University) |
| Abstract: | Egyptian firms are a vital case for examining the impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in its current transitional phase. CO2 emissions tariffs on imports implemented under the CBAM could threaten export competitiveness of developing countriesincluding Egypt- in the EU market. Thus, this study examines Egyptian firms’ performance in greening their production process and the determinants of their environmental measures using data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey. Our findings indicate that green management practices matter for Egyptian firms’ probability of adoption of green measures as well as the number of measures they adopt. In contrast, financial constraints negatively impact the probability of undertaking capital-intensive green investments such as machinery and vehicle upgrades. Also, specific targets for carbon emissions and energy consumption exert greater positive effect on the extensive and intensive margins of a firm’s environmental performance than any other green management action. Qualitative analysis supports the quantitative findings on the importance of both managerial and financial factors in determining environmental performance. Egyptian firms in steel, fertilizers, and cement sectors that export to the EU have technically complied with CBAM requirements with the help of government bodies and through hiring consultants and training their employees. In interviews, they emphasized their need to establish reliable monitoring, reporting, and verification systems for their carbon emissions and to secure concessional long-term finance to undertake their decarbonization plans. They are also willing to engage in the trading of carbon certificates in the Egyptian exchange on the newly developed voluntary carbon market. Even as they are actively responding to CBAM, firms acknowledged their need to diversify their export destination markets so as not to depend primarily on the EU. |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1771 |
| By: | Imane Helmy (World Bank); Al Anoud Ehab (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Managing risks and reducing vulnerability to shocks affect the welfare of households and resilience of economies. Using two rounds of Egypt’s Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS), 2018 and 2023, this paper examines different types of shocks experienced by households over the few past years as well as vulnerability to food insecurity. It highlights important factors that contribute to resilience and identifies opportunities for strengthening effective risk management strategies. The findings highlight a remarkable increase in household exposure to shocks, rising from 16 percent in 2018 to 49 percent in 2023. Households who reported exposure to shocks in 2018 and 2023 are primarily from poorer and larger households, indicating a potential chronic vulnerability. Urban households have experienced more shocks compared to rural counterparts in 2023, highlighting the need for strategies that address the specific vulnerabilities of urban households. Higher resilience to shocks and food insecurity was reported by households pertaining to high wealth quintiles and whose heads are more educated or employed in the formal sector. This emphasizes the crucial role of social protection measures and economic opportunities in building resilience. Coping mechanisms primarily included consumption rationing, with a notable decline in reliance on social capital compared to 2018. Around 40 percent of households faced food insecurity in 2023, with those experiencing economic shocks being more susceptible to higher rates of moderate and severe food insecurity. A higher share of female headed households reported severe food insecurity. Expanding access to social insurance programs and ensuring they cover irregular/informal workers can better mitigate the impacts of economic and health-related shocks, ensuring less persistent effect on food insecurity |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1767 |
| By: | Saeed Tajrishy (Sharif University of Technology); Mohammad Vesal (Sharif University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal impact of a large-scale public housing construction project on district-level employment. The program focused on mass building of affordable housing for lowand middle-income households. We use this construction shock in a generalized difference-indifferences strategy to estimate the impact on local labor markets. Our results show that each affordable housing project, increase local employment in the construction sector by 5 persons and 230 hours per week. Our second result show public housing projects crowd-out private housing projects by 50 percent. However, we do not find statistically significant general equilibrium effects on local employment across all specifications. These findings suggest that the local variation in affordable housing construction was too small relative to the baseline regional variability to detect a “local multiplier” effect impacting jobs outside of construction. We also find a transition from non-construction jobs to construction which is consistent with no overall employment impact. |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1765 |
| By: | Amira El-Shal (Cairo University); Eman Moustafa (African Export-Import Bank) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationships between gender, research and development (R&D), innovation, and productivity in Egyptian firms, leveraging panel data from 2013, 2016, and 2020. We explore whether female-led firms exhibit differences in productivity and innovation compared to their male-led counterparts. Going beyond most prior investigations, we allow for endogenous selection in innovation by incorporating instrumental variables within generalized structural equation models. Contrary to earlier findings, our results reveal that female-led firms are more likely to invest in R&D and innovate. Moreover, we show that female-led firms are as productive as male-led firms, challenging any notion of lower productivity among female-headed firms. In examining the links between R&D, innovation, and productivity, we determine that innovative and younger firms are more productive. Additionally, factors such as R&D expenditure, younger age, foreign technology adoption, and formal training provision increase the likelihood of innovation. Finally, firms adopting foreign technology and those with access to finance are more likely to invest in R&D. |
| Date: | 2024–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1744 |
| By: | Rachid Azzaz (l'École Nationale Supérieure de Statistique et d'Économie Appliquée (ENSSEA)); Lylia Sami (Laboratory for Studies and Research in Digital Economy (LEREN)) |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming global labor markets, offering opportunities to boost productivity and create industries while raising concerns about job displacement and inequality. For Algeria, an oil-dependent economy, AI presents opportunities to diversify and improve efficiency as well as risks such as unemployment, skill gaps, and delayed adoption due to technological gaps and institutional constraints. This study adopts a novel approach that estimates automation risk by mixing the probabilities of the capabilities required for various occupations using occupational databases and crosswalks. These probabilities were adjusted with a correction factor accounting for the slower technology adoption in emerging markets, inspired by historical patterns. The findings reveal a significant lag in AI adoption, with Algeria’s automation trailing that of advanced economies by approximately 2.5 times the required time. Some qualitative insights from interviews with managers and employees are consistent with our results, and the study concludes that Algeria faces minimal immediate AI risks. Integration and its consequences are likely to be delayed due to industrial dependency and competitive pricing from developed countries. These findings provide a foundation for future MENA-wide studies on the impact of AI on labor markets. |
| Date: | 2025–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1796 |
| By: | Sadettin Haluk Çitçi (Gebze Technical University); Halit Yanikkaya (Gebze Technical University); Yunis Dede (Gebze Technical University) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether households’ voluntary retirement saving decisions are influenced by reinforcement learning (RL), a behavioral heuristic where recent outcomes disproportionately shape future choices. Using eight years of universe-wide administrative data from Türkiye’s Individual Pension System, we show that savers over-weight recent return experiences. Specifically, individuals experiencing higher returns in one year substantially increase their voluntary contributions in the following year, and past returns continue to affect contributions with a diminished but persistent impact. The implied one-year learning weight is moderate, closely mirroring laboratory estimates. Alternative explanations such as inertia, skill learning, or asset rebalancing do not explain these observed behaviors |
| Date: | 2025–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1799 |
| By: | Mahmoud Arbouch |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the economic and environmental implications of Morocco’s strategic transition from internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) manufacturing to electric vehicle (EV) production, with a particular focus on the regional impacts of localizing high-value battery manufacturing. Using an interregional input-output model, extended with environmental satellite accounts, the study simulates a structural shock related to the wholesale substitution of ICEV-specific inputs with EV-specific components. The results highlight substantial macroeconomic gains, including a 1.9% increase in national GDP and positive employment growth, particularly in Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceima, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, and Casablanca-Settat. However, these benefits are regionally concentrated, exposing the risk of deepening spatial inequalities. Additionally, while the transition enhances Morocco’s position in global green value chains, it also induces a measurable rise in carbon dioxide emissions, especially in industrial and phosphate-rich regions. The prospect of economic advancement accompanied by environmental degradation raises critical concerns about policy alignment between industrial growth and energy decarbonization. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rp17_25 |
| By: | Ezgi B. Unsal (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London. Russell Square, London WC1H 0XG, UK) |
| Abstract: | This paper is an exploration of housing financialisation by drawing upon the productive dynamics of the housebuilding industry. Housing financialisation literature has two distinct branches, one focusing on the macroeconomic mechanisms through which the imbalances in the housing market could reflect deeper macroeconomic fragilities. The other branch puts the emphasis on the commodification of housing as a commodity, mostly due to the withdrawal of the state as a provisioner. This study bridges the gap between these two literatures on housing financialisation by introducing the productive dynamics of the housebuilding industry itself as an explanatory factor, which has not been addressed by either of those literatures. It has two distinct but interrelated contributions. First, it provides a case that can demonstrate the various ways in which the commodification of housing can take place without necessarily the withdrawal of the state by using Turkey as an example. Second, by showing how this development took place in the context of public land availability to accommodate increasing supply and the sectoral interlinkages with the more “productive†energy sector, it explains why the disruptive macroeconomic effects of that strategy could be delayed for a prolonged period. |
| Keywords: | Financialisation in emerging economies, Political economy of Turkey, Asset price inflation, Housing sector, Energy sector |
| JEL: | R31 P25 B50 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soa:wpaper:271 |
| By: | Wided Mattoussi (University of TunisAuthor-Name: Younes Ben Zaied; EDC Paris Business School, Paris); Omar Al Tabaa (Leeds University Business School); Foued Mattoussi (University of Jendouba) |
| Abstract: | Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can inject technology and knowledge into host- country economies, potentially influencing their firms' R&D investments and export capacities; as a result, these firms may engage in R&D (exports), potentially shaping the interaction between the two strategies. This paper investigates whether and when these strategies are complementary and reinforce each other, or whether they are substitutes, and should not be jointly pursued, as well as how combining the two strategies may lead to synergies positively affecting growth. The analysis was conducted on four clusters of firms using panel data of Tunisian manufacturing firms over the period 2016-2018. The first and second clusters include any exporting firms (differentiating exporters from non-exporters) without and with foreign participation, respectively. The third and fourth clusters are made up of fully exporting firms without and with foreign involvement, respectively. The findings suggest that R&D and exports positively reinforce each other in a dynamic virtuous circle to boost exports for firms with no foreign participation, whereas substitutability effects emerge for R&D activity, primarily for firms with foreign participation. The findings are also consistent with complementarities between the two activities in boosting the growth of fully exporting firms with foreign ownership.Length: 55 |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1770 |
| By: | Volckart, Oliver |
| Abstract: | How did the Holy Roman Empire solve the collective action problem of defending itself against the Ottomans between 1566 and 1606? To answer this question, the article first reassesses the extent to which the imperial estates paid their defence dues. The new approach followed here indicates that with on average 72.5 percent, compliance rates were more than 15 percentage points lower than previously suggested. The article then statistically examines factors that influenced compliance, finding that the perceived legitimacy of the grant of a Turkish Aid by the imperial diet increased the estates’ willingness to pay. Also, it finds that several groups of estates were willing to pay larger shares than their respective control groups. It argues that while the emperor used the funds to finance the wars with the Ottomans, the primary motive of these estates for contributing was securing the emperor’s support in protecting private property rights. |
| Keywords: | political economy; defence; Holy Roman Empire; Ottoman Empire |
| JEL: | H10 H26 H30 H41 N44 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129940 |
| By: | Azzeddine Allioui (ESCA Ecole de Management, Morocco) |
| Abstract: | The characteristics that motivate the family firm, characterized by its highly specialized management, to embrace and implement the Balanced Scorecard are the subject of our study. Consequently, we conduct an inductive longitudinal case study inside a craft firm that has identified a potential risk of activity deceleration over the course of two years. The findings demonstrate the significant impact that a manager's substantial degree of managerial innovation adoption has. Additionally, it is essential to consider the components of training and consultant engagement. The mobilization of external and internal intermediates enabled inventive expression in the configuration and use of the tool thus selected, which is a prerequisite for the legitimization of the instrument via the dedication of the various players (family and workers). |
| Keywords: | family business, managerial innovation, balanced scorecard, performance management |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0564 |
| By: | Rabeh Morrar (An-Najah National University); Fernando Rios-Avila (Levy Economics Institute of Bard College); Habib Hinn (Birzeit University) |
| Abstract: | This research investigates the factors contributing to the traditional and digital financial inclusion (FI) gender gap in Palestine and how it was shaped by the ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using secondary data from two nationwide FI surveys conducted in 2016 and 2022, the study employs an Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition and an intertemporal decomposition to analyze the changes in gender discrimination in financial literacy and access to financial services over time. Our results show a persistently high FI gender gap in 2016 and 2022. There is a worsening or unchanged FI gender gap in most aspects, including access to bank accounts, formal borrowing, and the adoption of digital financial services. Only the gender gap in access to private insurance decreased between 2016 and 2022, which is generally low in Palestine. The widening FI gender gap is driven by discrimination against women in economic participation (explained by changes in the coefficients gap), followed by changes in men's returns. The deterioration of women's socioeconomic conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in terms of labor market participation, was the greatest contributor to the growth of intertemporal FI gender discrimination. Another contributor to the widening FI gender gap was the drop in income and employment during the pandemic, compounded by Israeli restrictions and rising political tension. Nonetheless, the gap narrows slightly over time among older individuals, indicating a positive trend for women’s FI across different age brackets. We find that household composition is pivotal in shaping the gender gap in FI, as the gap shrinks among households with a higher proportion of female members. Finally, adopting modern financial technologies may be slower among women facing barriers related to technology literacy or access to digital financial services; meanwhile, financial technology has a significant influence on the likelihood of FI, particularly favoring women. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1734 |
| By: | Aomar Ibourk; Karim El Aynaoui |
| Abstract: | This study provides an original and significant contribution to evaluating educational service quality in Morocco by leveraging, for the first time, microdata from the Service Delivery Indicators (SDI) survey. The survey covers a nationally representative sample of 300 public and private primary schools across rural and urban areas. The use of SDI data represents a major methodological advancement, shifting away from perception-based assessments toward objective indicators, including classroom observations, unannounced school visits, and standardized tests administered to teachers and students. A key added value of the study lies in its focus on rural education effectiveness, a topic that remains largely underexplored. In rural areas, where structural heterogeneity is high, education is mainly delivered through community and satellite schools. The research offers an in-depth analysis of multigrade classrooms, a common solution to teacher shortages and infrastructure limitations in remote regions, though their pedagogical effectiveness remains debated. Methodologically, the study employs a two-step approach—Data Envelopment Analysis and truncated regression—to assess and explain variations in school performance. It finds that while community schools tend to be more stable, they are generally less efficient. Additionally, preschool attendance and infrastructure renovation emerge as key positive drivers of educational effectiveness, offering clear policy insights. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:ppscienc_26_1 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | As its reform agenda advances under Oman Vision 2040, Oman has demonstrated strong resilience to heightened global uncertainty, renewed geopolitical tensions, and oil price fluctuations in 2025. Nonhydrocarbon economic activities continue expanding, while inflation remains low. Fiscal and external positions remain solid despite lower oil proceeds. Public sector deleveraging continues. With heightened uncertainty and weaker oil prices, the premium on strengthening resilience and accelerating the country’s economic transformation has increased, underscoring the importance of sustaining the reform momentum. |
| Keywords: | IMF-World Bank team; staff report; Fsap participation; data ROSC; World Bank country; Oil; Oil prices; Financial sector stability; Global; Middle East; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2026–01–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/004 |
| By: | Ahmed Ouhnini |
| Abstract: | L’« uberisation », terme né du nom de l’entreprise américaine Uber au début des années 2010, désigne initialement un modèle économique fondé sur la mise en relation directe entre offre et demande via des plateformes numériques. Rapidement popularisé, le concept s’est élargi, avec Airbnb dans l’hébergement, puis à une multitude d’autres secteurs : livraison de repas, services à domicile, commerce en ligne, voire des métiers traditionnellement régulés ou corporatistes. Ce néologisme traduit ainsi une transformation des relations économiques et sociales, où la flexibilité, la rapidité et l’autonomie deviennent des critères centraux, tant pour les consommateurs que pour les prestataires. Ce modèle crée des opportunités d’emploi et de revenus, notamment pour les jeunes, les femmes et les travailleurs informels, tout en répondant à une demande croissante de services digitalisés et accessibles. Cependant, son adoption reste freinée par des obstacles juridiques, institutionnels et territoriaux, surtout dans les pays en développement, où les systèmes de salariat et les régulations traditionnelles ne sont pas pleinement adaptés à cette nouvelle organisation des échanges. Ces plateformes mettent en évidence la nécessité de sécuriser les travailleurs, de formaliser l’emploi et de garantir une concurrence loyale. Avec un soutien aux initiatives locales et une adoption numérique accrue, l’« uberisation » peut devenir un levier entrepreneurial et économique majeur. Une réforme réglementaire claire et inclusive, appuyée par une approche multisectorielle coordonnée, permettrait de transformer ce phénomène en moteur durable de modernisation, de croissance et d’inclusion sociale. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb63_25 |