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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid; Fisher, Monica; Abushama, Hala; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Raouf, Mariam; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum |
| Abstract: | Sudan's food security landscape has been dramatically impacted by the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began in April 2023. The conflict has exacerbated an already precarious situation for the country, characterized by macroeconomic instability, climate shocks, and persistent discord and tension. This policy note analyzes the evolution of food insecurity in Sudan during the conflict, drawing from analysis of four nationwide surveys conducted before and during the conflict, namely the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS), 1 the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey, 2 the 2024 Sudan Urban Survey, 3 and the recently completed 2024 Rural Household Survey. The findings highlight significant deterioration in food security across rural and urban areas of Sudan. Based on insights from these surveys, policy recommendations are offered to address food insecurity in the context of the conflict in Sudan. Before the outbreak of the conflict in 2023, Sudan was already facing significant food insecurity challenges. The 2022 SLMPS, a nationwide survey conducted in person, revealed that approximately 49 percent of Sudanese households were food secure. Factors such as high inflation, climate-related shocks, and underinvestment in agriculture have led to many households facing problems accessing sufficient healthy food, adversely affecting their food consumption. The reliance of Sudan on imports for a significant share of food consumption, coupled with a devaluating Sudanese Pound and rising inflation, strained household purchasing power, further limiting access to essential foodstuffs. Food insecurity was uneven across the country. Rural areas, where consumption of own agricultural production is essential for household food security, had higher food insecurity than urban areas. Some regions were particularly vulnerable to food insecurity, including the Darfur and Kordofan regions and Blue Nile states. Localized conflicts in these areas disrupted agricultural activities and displaced communities even before broader-scale fighting between SAF and RSF began. |
| Keywords: | capacity development; conflicts; food insecurity; macroeconomics; policy innovation; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:163106 |
| By: | Christopher J. Waller |
| Date: | 2025–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:99974 |
| By: | Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | Sudan has been embroiled in a high-intensity conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023, leading to widespread displacement and an escalating humanitarian crisis. This conflict, centered on Khartoum, an economic hub contributing nearly one-third of Sudan's GDP, has caused unprecedented economic and social upheaval. As of December 2024, over 12 million1 people have been displaced, and fatalities have exceeded 29, 6002. Sudan's GDP has contracted sharply, with estimates from the IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank projecting declines of 18.3% to 37.5% in 2023 alone, compounded by further drops in 2024. Unemployment has surged from 32% in 2022 to 46% in 2023, with household incomes declining nearly 50% relative to pre-conflict levels. Urban households, especially in Khartoum, have been disproportionately affected due to the destruction of infrastructure and loss of industrial jobs, while rural households face severe disruptions in agriculture and access to essential inputs. The conflict has strained household welfare systems and exacerbated food insecurity, with many families increasingly reliant on remittances and humanitarian aid to meet basic needs. These dynamics underscore the urgent need for effective policy interventions to address both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term recovery challenges. |
| Keywords: | conflicts; employment; income; welfare; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:168999 |
| By: | Ferid Belhaj |
| Abstract: | MENA faces a severe water crisis, with 12 of the world’s 17 most water-stressed countries. Climate change, population growth, inefficient water management, and weak governance drive this challenge. Water production, treatment, and distribution require high energy inputs, while energy generation depends on water for cooling and refining. The region must integrate renewable energy, especially solar power, into water solutions like desalination. Inaction could shrink GDP by up to 14% by 2050, while a $500 billion investment over the next decade could secure water resources. Key solutions include renewable-powered desalination, modernized water networks, large-scale wastewater recycling, and innovative financing through green bonds, public- private partnerships, and sovereign wealth funds. Regional collaboration on transboundary water management and shared desalination projects remains essential. MENA must act now. By integrating sustainable water-energy strategies, the region can secure its future and drive stability and growth. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb016_25 |
| By: | Aydın, Yaşar |
| Abstract: | Turkey is at risk of descending into autocracy. That risk persists even though the resistance put up by the opposition Republican People's Party following the arrest of Mayor of İstanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu has saved the party - at least for now - from being placed under a trustee and the İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality from being subjected to the administration of the state. The complete autocratisation of Turkey can be prevented only if opposition resistance receives broad and consistent support from among the population, economic growth is jeopardised by political instability and the European Union responds in a unified manner. It is in the interest of neither the EU nor Germany for Turkey to become politically and economically destabilised through further autocratisation, as this would impede the country's ability to fulfil its regional responsibilities, which include curbing migration, deterring Russia and stabilising Syria. The EU can exercise a constructive influence over Turkey by offering the prospect of talks on the modernisation of the customs union and the facilitation of visas and by promising it a greater say in the European security architecture - on condition that Ankara respects democratic principles and the rule of law. |
| Keywords: | Ekrem İmamoğlu, Mayor of İstanbul, NATO, EU, autocratisation, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, opposition, curbing migration, deterring Russia, stabilising Syria, rule of law, Republican People's Party (CHP), Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), Turkish Industry and Business Association (TÜSçIAD), Justice and Development Party (AKP) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:318314 |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan. |
| Keywords: | capacity development; households; water; energy; food security; health; socioeconomic environment; rural urban relations; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resain:168162 |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the data collection methodology for the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), the first nationwide survey of rural households in Sudan following the eruption of violent conflict in April 2023. The SRHS, which was conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the United Nations Development Program and the World Food Program, represents a significant effort to understand the dynamics of rural households in Sudan during a period of profound national conflict. The survey focuses on several critical themes central to household welfare, including food security, coping strategies, employment and income, livelihoods, assets, market access, and exposure to shocks. Analysis of the survey data can provide comprehensive insights into the resilience of and challenges faced by rural communities in Sudan. Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) methods were used to navigate the challenges of data collection in a conflict setting. The use of CATI demonstrated the adaptability and potential of innovative research methodologies in conflict-affected regions. The survey, the first round in a planned panel survey program, aims to establish a baseline of rural life, economic activities, and food security in Sudan. Panel survey data offers invaluable information to counter several analytical biases inherent to the conclusions drawn from other data structures. Subsequent rounds of the SRHS are planned for the second and fourth quarters of 2024. |
| Keywords: | capacity development; conflicts; food security; households; rural areas; surveys; telephone surveys; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resain:141598 |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid; Fisher, Monica; Cavicchioli, Martina; Chamberlin, Jordan |
| Abstract: | The current conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has had a profound impact on the nation’s micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME). Such enterprises are a vital part of the country’s economy and important to the food security of many Sudanese households. All MSMEs, including those in the agrifood sector, have faced severe disruptions due to the instability, rising inflation, and supply chain breakdowns brought on by the conflict. These challenges have destabilized MSMEs, affecting their financial viability, operations, and capacity to support local food security and provide employment. Agrifood MSMEs, in particular, serve as critical intermediaries between large firms and smallholders, supporting local economies and national food systems.2 The conflict has disrupted every aspect of agrifood value chains in Sudan, from input supplies and production to market accessibility. Agrifood entrepreneurs—especially women—have borne some of the heaviest impacts. Female entrepreneurs already face significant gender-based barriers in operating successful businesses, such as more limited access to finance, restrictive social norms, and mobility constraints. In this period of conflict, they now confront even greater challenges. |
| Keywords: | enterprises; conflicts; food security; food supply chains; economics; gender; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:163749 |
| By: | Al-Omar, Hussain Abdulrahman; Almuhsin, Asma Abdulaziz; Almudaiyan, Lolwa Hamad; Al-Najjar, Amal Hassan; Abu Esba, Laila Carolina; Almodaimegh, Hind; Altawil, Esraa S.; Yousef, Consuela Cheriece; Khan, Mansoor Ahmed; Alyahya, Khalid; Alamre, Jehan; Maraiki, Fatma; Espin, Jaime; Tarricone, Rosanna; Kanavos, Panos |
| Abstract: | Background Managed entry agreements (MEAs) between manufacturers and healthcare payers allow health systems to maximize patients’ access to treatments while maintaining financial sustainability. However, to work efficiently, MEAs need to be integrated into a country’s formal pricing, reimbursement, and market access processes. This study proposes a country-specific MEA framework for pharmaceutical products and sheds light on the key enablers of optimal implementation of MEAs in Saudi Arabia. Methods This mixed-methods study was conducted through secondary data collection derived from systematic literature search followed by a half-day multi-stakeholder workshop hosted in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia including representatives from different governmental, quasi-governmental, and private sectors, all of whom had a job role related to pharmaceutical pricing, reimbursement, and market access. A predefined and validated set of questions was used to guide the workshop discussion with props and prompts to elicit more insights on MEAs design and framework from the participants. The workshop discussion and interactions were digitally recorded to enable verbatim transcription, followed by a thematic analysis. Results Ten themes emerged from the workshop discussion with majority guided the framework design: (1) access to innovative medications; (2) stakeholder views about MEAs; (3) early dialogue; (4) prioritization of MEAs for pharmaceutical products; (5) the regulatory landscape; (6) designing a technical framework for MEAs; (7) innovative payment models; (8) health system governance; (9) challenges for successful implementation; and (10) stakeholder engagement. Conclusions In Saudi Arabia, MEAs are perceived as strategic levers to enable health system to navigate the access paradox, particularly for innovative and high-cost therapies. Nevertheless, having in place a robust Saudi-specific framework and anchored regulations and policies is essential to ensure that MEAs enhance—rather than compromise—access, sustainability, and equity. As therapies grow more complex, Saudi Arabia must adopt agile, evidence-adaptive MEAs policy and structure to remain fit for purpose. |
| Keywords: | pharmaceuticals; innovative payment models; MEAs; managed entry agreements; Saudi Arabia; access; framework; governance; innovation |
| JEL: | I18 I19 |
| Date: | 2025–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128168 |
| By: | Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Siddig, Khalid; Mohamed, Shima A. H. |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of conflict-induced migration in Sudan, focusing on the food security and access to healthcare of displaced households. Triggered by the civil conflict that started in April 2023, the recent widespread displacement of households has intensified vulnerabilities across the country. Using three datasets—the pre conflict 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey and two surveys conducted during the conflict, the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey—the research examines the impacts on household food security and healthcare access of migration driven by conflict. The study employs inverse probability weighting to estimate the causal impacts of migration, leveraging data from over 12, 000 households. The key impact indicators at the household level were the Food Insecurity Experience Scale score and, as a measure of healthcare access, any incidence of illness in the household. Analysis shows that migration induced by conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with over 90 percent of rural households and nearly 80 percent of urban households reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Rural households face additional challenges as displacement disrupts agricultural livelihoods and access to markets. Migration also worsens healthcare access, particularly in rural areas where displaced households experience a higher likelihood of illness. For urban households, migration fails to alleviate their healthcare challenges due to the collapse of urban healthcare systems. The study calls for urgent policy interventions, including targeted food aid and mobile healthcare services. Restoring healthcare infrastructure, expanding social protection mechanisms, and fostering peacebuilding efforts are critical to mitigating future displacement and supporting socioeconomic recovery. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors to address the immediate and long-term needs of displaced populations in Sudan. |
| Keywords: | conflicts; migration; food security; health; displacement; livelihoods; market access; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resain:168432 |
| By: | Zamirirad, Azadeh |
| Abstract: | Das iranische Atomprogramm ist wieder Gegenstand internationaler Verhandlungen. Sowohl die E3 (Deutschland, Frankreich, Großbritannien) als auch die USA haben Gespräche mit Teheran aufgenommen, die zu einer neuen politischen Verständigung führen sollen. Eine solche ist dringlich, denn die Islamische Republik hat ihr Atomprogramm rasant ausgebaut und verfügt über zahlreiche Voraussetzungen, um eigene Kernwaffen produzieren zu können. Zugleich hat sich der Atomdiskurs in Iran deutlich verschoben. Die Option, Nuklearwaffen herzustellen, wird seit 2024 offen diskutiert. Die EU sieht es als entscheidende Sicherheitspriorität an, Teheran von diesem Schritt abzuhalten. Dabei stehen Deutschland und seine Partner unter Zeitdruck. Im Oktober 2025 läuft die Resolution der Vereinten Nationen (VN) aus, durch die das internationale Atomabkommen von 2015 völkerrechtlich verbindlich wurde. Irans Nuklearprogramm wäre dann formal nicht länger den Beschränkungen und Kontrollmaßnahmen unterworfen, die das Abkommen ursprünglich vorsah. Der Atomkonflikt könnte sich gefährlich zuspitzen. Europäische Politik sollte sich darum bemühen, eine militärische Eskalation zu verhindern. Zugleich muss sie bereit sein, im Ernstfall von ihrem schärfsten Instrument gegenüber Iran Gebrauch zu machen, dem "Snapback". |
| Keywords: | Iran, Atomprogramm, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA, Internationale Atomenergieorganisation, IAEO, Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT, E3, E3/EU+3, Urananreicherung, nukleare Fatwa, Snapback |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:318316 |
| By: | Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact in Sudan of conflict on employment and incomes and the effect of remittances and assistance received by a household on its food insecurity and food consumption. The analyses use data from the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS), the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey (SUHS). Conflict is found to significantly increase the likelihood of employment and income loss, particularly among female-headed and displaced households. Receipt of remittances does not have a significant effect on the food security or food consumption of a household. In contrast, whether a household receives assistance is associated with higher food insecurity and lower food consumption, likely reflecting the targeting of assistance programs toward vulnerable households. However, due to the cross sectional nature of the data, causal relationships cannot be established. The results highlight the need for targeted interventions to support the food security and welfare of households affected by the current conflict in Sudan, particularly through efforts to stabilize employment and incomes. |
| Keywords: | conflicts; employment; income; remittances; food security; food consumption; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resain:168417 |
| By: | Alfadul, Hanan; Siddig, Khalid; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K. |
| Abstract: | Livestock in Sudan plays a crucial role in the national economy, particularly in alleviating poverty and enhancing food security. Despite its significance, the last comprehensive livestock census for the country was conducted in 1975, resulting in now outdated and often unreliable data. Recent estimates by USAID indicate that Sudan ranks among the top three African countries in terms of livestock numbers, with an estimated 105.6 million animals. The livestock population in Sudan is predominantly composed of camels, goats, sheep, and cattle. The spatial distribution of livestock is variable and influenced by local factors such as feed resources, land use, and ecological conditions. The Greater Kordofan and Greater Darfur regions have the largest livestock numbers. However, discrepancies between official statistics and field data show the need for updated and accurate livestock data. The livestock sector provides 40 percent of employment and 34 percent of Sudan’s agricultural gross domestic product (GDP). The livestock sector is a vital source of foreign exchange for the Sudanese economy through exports of livestock and livestock products. Besides its economic contributions, the livestock sector provides essential food products, including meat, eggs, and milk, and draught power for agricultural operations and transportation, particularly in rural areas. However, relative to irrigated agriculture, the sector faces challenges due to underinvestment and minimal government attention. |
| Keywords: | livestock; poverty; food security; exports; employment; animal products; Sudan; Northern Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resain:151697 |
| By: | Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | The conflict in Sudan, which started in April 2023, has led to severe economic repercussions, sharply reducing the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and household incomes and increasing the prevalence of poverty. Using an updated economywide database for Sudan, we ran an analysis of the likely economic impact of a continuation of the conflict through to the end of 2024 using two scenarios of extreme and moderate reductions in overall GDP. These reductions are triggered mainly by the ongoing conflict, which is causing additional cuts in the operations of business services and continuing disruptions to wholesale and retail services and manufacturing. The results of the analysis show a 47 percent decline in Sudan’s GDP under the extreme reduction scenario and a 13 percent decline under the moderate scenario relative to 2022 before the conflict began. Under the extreme scenario, the agrifood system GDP falls by 26 percent and employment by 50 percent, with non-farm jobs being more adversely affected. Household incomes decline significantly across all quintiles and in both rural and urban areas, with urban and richer households facing slightly higher reductions. Less-educated labor categories are severely affected, while tertiary-educated labor shows relative resilience. Poverty rates have surged, particularly in rural areas and among women, with the national poverty rate estimated to have increased by 21 percentage points under the extreme reduction scenario. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy and foster long-term resilience, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, provide support for the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation. |
| Keywords: | conflicts; economic impact; employment; income; poverty; agrifood systems; resilience; social protection; Sudan; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resain:168102 |
| By: | Ali, Mohammed Elhaj Mustafa; Ebaidallah, Ebaidallah Mahjoub; Elhaj, Manal Osman |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the complex relationship between fertility and female labor force participation in the Arab region, where sociocultural norms often constrain women’s economic empowerment. Utilizing panel data spanning 1991 to 2023 across 15 Arab countries, the analysis employs the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model to account for potential endogeneity and dynamic heterogeneity. The results reveal that higher fertility rates reduce labor market participation among women aged 15–64, while unexpectedly increasing participation among younger women aged 15–24. However, when labor market conditions are considered, fertility is found to contribute to higher unemployment rates in both age groups. These findings underscore the need for policy interventions that support women’s employment, including expanded access to reproductive health services, flexible work arrangements, childcare provision, and broader gender equity measures. The study’s contribution lies in its region-wide, longitudinal perspective, offering new insights beyond prior country-specific or survey-based analyses. |
| Keywords: | PMG, Females, Arab world, Labor force participation, Fertility |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J21 J30 |
| Date: | 2025–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124964 |
| By: | Cansunar, Asli (University of Washington); Kıbrıs, Arzu (University of Warwick, Department of Politics and International Studies.); Tokdemir, Efe (Bilkent University, Türkiye) |
| Abstract: | The literature on in-group favoritism and out-group discrimination in political and economic contexts is extensive. However, we know little about how these biases manifest in everyday contact, where routines of civility may coexist with latent ethnic tensions, particularly in conflict-affected settings. Using data from the Turkish Third Soccer League during a period of ethnic insurgency (1990-2019), we examine whether local exposure to conflict, measured by funeral ceremonies for fallen Turkish security personnel, increases ethnic harassment. Soccer games offer a unique context in which groups interact under strong norms of friendly contact and non-discrimination, while funerals serve as localized, random shocks that heighten ethnic salience. Our findings show that Turkish teams exhibit increased harassment toward Kurdish opponents in the immediate aftermath of local conflict events. Additionally, Turkish referees are more likely to overlook this aggression. Moreover, the incidence of conflict-triggered harassment increases substantially in venues where voters express stronger nationalist sentiments. |
| Keywords: | ethnic harassment ; conflict ; inter-group bias ; sports and politics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wqapec:28 |
| By: | Pourabhari Langroudi, Ashkan; Farzi, Yosef; Almasi, Golaleh; Shokri Varniab, Zahra; Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen; Rezaei, Negar; Golestani, Ali; Ahmadi, Naser; Rezaei, Nazila; Ghasemi, Erfan; Azadnajafabad, Sina; Nasserinejad, Maryam; Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi; Kazemi, Ameneh; Yoosefi, Moein; Foroutan Mehr, Elmira; Haghshenas, Rosa; Moghaddam, Sahar Saeedi; Hajebi, Amirali; Mohammadi Fateh, Sahar; Moghimi, Mana; Momen Nia Rankohi, Azadeh; Afsari, Massomeh; Djalalinia, Shirin; Farzadfar, Farshad |
| Abstract: | Tobacco smoking is a significant global public health challenge, responsible for 8 million deaths annually. This study aimed to analyze the age of smoking initiation and its sociodemographic determinants among Iranian adults, based on data from the 2021 STEPwise approach to surveillance (STEPS) survey, to inform targeted public health interventions. The analysis of 27, 874 adults revealed that the average initiation ages for cigarette and hookah smoking were 22.2 years and 24.9 years, respectively. Men typically began smoking earlier than women, with average ages of 21.9 years for males and 27.7 years for females. No significant differences were observed in smoking initiation ages between rural and urban areas. Education level and marital status were also influential, with the youngest initiators having 7–12 years of education and being single. This study highlights the significant roles of gender, education, and urban-rural differences in smoking initiation in Iran. The findings underscore the need for targeted public health strategies conforming to the WHO’s MPOWER initiatives and the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). Increased investment in public health, focusing on education and preventive measures, is crucial to reduce early smoking initiation and its associated health risks, ultimately supporting broader health policy goals. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:318199 |
| By: | Nuno Garoupa; Rok Spruk |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether major political institutional disruptions produce temporary shocks or structural breaks in long-term development. Using the 1979 Iranian Revolution as a natural experiment, we apply the synthetic control method to estimate its causal effect on economic growth and institutional quality. Drawing on a panel of 66 countries from 1950 to 2015, we construct counterfactual trajectories for Iran in the absence of revolutionary change. Our results show a persistent and statistically significant divergence in per capita GDP, institutional quality, and legal constraints on executive power. We perform in-space and in-time placebo tests to rule out confounding events, such as the Iran-Iraq War and international sanctions, and propose confidence interval estimation to address uncertainty in treatment effects. The findings identify the Iranian Revolution as a structural institutional rupture, with implications for the classification of institutional change more broadly. We contribute a generalizable empirical framework for distinguishing between temporary and structural institutional shocks in long-run development. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.02425 |
| By: | Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Raouf, Mariam |
| Abstract: | In response to the 2023 conflict in Sudan and its extensive socio-economic repercussions, this study investigates the resultant economic, poverty, and undernourishment impacts, using an economywide model for in-depth analysis at national and household levels. The study also seeks to identify effective recovery pathways that can mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, with a particular focus on the role of the agricultural sector. Key findings reveal significant economic contractions across all scenarios, with the GDP experiencing a reduction of up to 12% and 18% following estimates by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2023. These estimates are included in an economywide framework, linked to a microsimulation module as major war scenarios, namely, Moderate decline & slow recovery and Sharp decline & rapid recovery, respectively. Poverty rates are projected to increase by 8 and 11.6 percentage points, affecting an additional 2.7 and 3.9 million people in the two scenarios, respectively. Undernourishment is also expected to rise significantly, with an increase of 3.9 and 6.0 percentage points, adding approximately 1.3 and 2.0 million people to those affected in the two scenarios, respectively. The analysis proposes recovery strategies that emphasize agricultural productivity, infrastructure investment, and social protection measures. By simulating enhanced agricultural productivity scenarios, the study suggests that poverty could decrease notably, with potential reductions in the poor population by as much as 1.9 million by 2028. This study underscores the urgency of coordinated policy efforts and international support to mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, providing a strategic roadmap for recovery initiatives aimed at sustainable development and stability in Sudan. |
| Keywords: | conflicts; economic impact; poverty; nutrition; agricultural sector; social protection; infrastructure; Sudan; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resain:168104 |
| By: | Henri-Louis Vedie |
| Abstract: | Cette étude est consacrée à la désalinisation de l’eau de mer, aux barrages et aux autoroutes de l’eau au Maroc, solutions innovantes privilégiées par Sa Majesté le roi Mohammed VI, notamment dans son discours du 29 juillet 2024 marquant le 25ème anniversaire de son accession au Trône. Discours dans lequel le Souverain rappelait que l’un des défis majeurs auquel le Royaume était confronté était celui d’un stress hydrique structurel et récurrent. L’analyse de 26 Stations de dessalement (SD), (existantes, en voie de réalisation ou en programmation) et de 29 barrages (en construction et en programmation), montre que : la capacité de traitement de l’eau de mer permettra d’accroitre en deux temps l’offre en eau potable de 1 257 Mm3, et la construction de nouveaux barrages augmentera la capacité de stockage de 4 730 Mm3. C’est considérable. Cette étude met aussi en évidence des Stations de dessalement aux capacités de traitement très variables, comme le sont également les capacités de stockage des barrages allant des plus grandes aux plus modestes. Cette diversité, qui se retrouve aussi dans leur localisation, fait de l’ensemble des infrastructures des incontournables de la lutte anti-stress hydrique. Comme le sont également les autoroutes de l’eau qui, après un an d’existence, ont déjà permis de transporter 500 Mm3 d’eau. Ces incontournables de la lutte contre le stress hydrique ont et vont continuer à engager des investissements de plusieurs MM de dhs. C’est pourquoi, lors de son discours référent de juillet 2024, Sa Majesté Mohammed VI insistait également sur la nécessité d’agir simultanément sur la demande, principalement contre le gaspillage de l’eau potable et son mésusage. Une autre réflexion et action …. incontournables. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:pp_19-25 |
| By: | Aomar Ibourk; Tayeb Ghazi |
| Abstract: | Le marché du travail marocain traverse des défis structurels majeurs, avec un taux de participation relativement faible (43, 5 %) et encore plus marqué chez les femmes, dont la participation reste inférieure à 20 %. Le chômage, quant à lui, est élevé, particulièrement parmi les jeunes diplômés, atteignant 30 %, et une grande partie de l'emploi urbain se trouve dans le secteur informel, représentant entre 20 et 40 % des emplois. Ce marché est également marqué par des disparités régionales importantes, avec un produit intérieur brut (PIB) concentré principalement dans certaines zones, et les défis liés à la digitalisation et au changement climatique impactent particulièrement l’agriculture et l’emploi. Dans ce contexte, la Feuille de route pour l’emploi, visant à réduire le chômage à 9 % d'ici 2030, constitue un projet ambitieux. Elle prévoit la création de 1, 45 million de nouveaux emplois grâce à un budget de 15 milliards MAD et la modernisation de la gouvernance du marché du travail. Bien que cette feuille de route représente une vision ambitieuse pour un marché du travail plus inclusif et résilient, son succès dépendra d’une mise en œuvre rigoureuse et d’une adaptation continue aux réalités économiques. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp08_25 |
| By: | Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. (Sabanci University); Öztek, Abdullah Selim (Ankara University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the causal effect of immigration on crime in the context of the massive influx of Syrians to Türkiye, using comprehensive data that spans all stages of the judicial process—from prosecution to incarceration—and includes information on the nativity status of both perpetrators and victims. To isolate causal effects, we employ a two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation technique, exploiting substantial exogenous variation in the migrant-to-native ratio that arises from the geographical proximity of Turkish provinces to Syrian governorates. The findings reveal a slight increase in total crime at the prosecution stage, while no significant effects are detected for criminal court cases or convictions. Moreover, natives experience increased victimization at the prosecution stage, while their involvement in criminal activities remains unchanged. In contrast, both the likelihood of committing a crime and being a victim of crime increase among immigrants. The analysis further suggests that immigrants may be crowding out natives in specific crime categories, such as smuggling. |
| Keywords: | suspects, crime, immigration, victimization |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J61 J68 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17885 |
| By: | Cevat Giray Aksoy; Nicholas Bloom; Steven J. Davis; Victoria Marino; Cem Ozguzel |
| Abstract: | We study the shift to fully remote work at a large call center in Turkey, highlighting three findings. First, fully remote work increased the share of women, including married women, rural and smaller-town residents. By accessing groups with traditionally lower labor-force participation the firm was able to increase its share of graduate employees by 14% without raising wages. Second, workforce productivity rose by 10%, reflecting shorter call durations for remote employees. This was facilitated by a quieter home working environment, avoiding the background noise in the office. Third, fully remote employees with initial in-person training saw higher long-run remote productivity and lower attrition rates. This underscores the advantages of initial in-person onboarding for fully remote employees. |
| JEL: | J0 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33851 |
| By: | Can, Zeynep Gizem (University of Galway); O'Donoghue, Cathal (University of Galway) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of the social security system and transfer expenditures in Türkiye in combating poverty. Social security systems aim to reduce the effects of poverty by ensuring that individuals meet their basic needs. Transfer expenditures in Türkiye, while providing temporary support especially for disadvantaged groups, carry the risk of creating dependency relations in the long term. While the short-term effects of transfer expenditures are frequently addressed in the literature, studies on their role in combating structural poverty are limited. This study evaluates the effects of transfer expenditures on the capacity of individuals to create sustainable welfare. The case of Türkiye is important due to the institutional transformation of social security policies and the politicization of aid in recent years. The study analyzes the effectiveness of social transfers at the regional level using the data analysis method. Thus, the structural effects of social policies in reducing poverty are investigated and policy recommendations for more comprehensive, long-term strategies are presented. The findings aim to produce generalizable inferences for similar developing countries based on the case of Türkiye. |
| Keywords: | social security, social transfers, poverty, data analysis |
| JEL: | I32 I38 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17890 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Central Bank of Oman (CBO) has a strong focus on transparency, building on the Omani Vision 2040. In line with the country’s long-term vision, Vision 2040 (see Box 1), the CBO is committed to enhancing its policies and operations in line with international best practices. The Central Bank Transparency Code (CBT) review – the first one in the GCC region – reflects the commitment of the authorities to strengthening the role of the CBO as a critical public institution, with a transparency framework firmly anchored in the law. This policy has earned the CBO the broad trust of its stakeholders and has paid significant dividends for the CBO in terms of safeguarding its credibility and policy effectiveness. |
| Date: | 2025–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/124 |
| By: | Hayet, Kaddachi; Naceur, Benzina |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of corruption on environmental quality in GCC countries from 2003 to 2021, focusing in particular on direct and indirect impacts on CO2 emissions. We use two-stage least squares (2SLS) panel regression analysis to account for potential endogeneity and provide robust empirical evidence. The results show that corruption has a direct and significant positive effect on environmental quality. This suggests that some corrupt practices can lead to short-term emission reductions by delaying or distorting large, environmentally harmful projects. However, it also has indirect negative effects: corruption undermines economic growth and institutional integrity and ultimately worsens long-term environmental impacts. Overall, the positive effects of corruption on environmental quality are positive, although they are differentiated and context-dependent. In addition, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is tested. This suggests that after an initial decline in emissions, environmental destruction could resume as income levels rise. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to strengthen institutional governance, eradicate corruption, and promote sustainable environmental policies in resource-dependent economies. |
| Keywords: | Corruption, environmental quality, CO2 emissions, EKC, Economic Growth |
| JEL: | Q51 |
| Date: | 2025–05–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124830 |