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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Rakhy, Tarig; Mohamed, Shima; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Suliman, Gotada; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: April 2026 |
| Keywords: | commodities; prices; markets; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:183117 |
| By: | Abushama, Hala; Rakhy, Tarig; Mohamed, Shima; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | Figures on: Cereals and Flour, Lentils, Rice, and Pigeon Peas, Vegetables, Meat and Animal Products, Oilseeds, Cooking Oil, Sugar, and Fava Beans, Seeds, Fertilizers, Diesel and Petrol, Exchange Rates, Labor wages, and Market Actors’ Perceptions, |
| Keywords: | capacity building; commodities; prices; markets; price stabilization; economic stabilization; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–03–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:182133 |
| By: | Rakhy, Tarig; Mohamed, Shima; Abushama, Hala; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Suliman, Gotada; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | Cereals and Flour Lentils, Rice, and Pigeon Peas Vegetables Meat and Animal Products Oilseeds, Cooking Oil, Sugar, and Fava Beans Seeds Fertilizers Diesel and Petrol Exchange Rates Labor wages Market Actors’ Perceptions |
| Keywords: | capacity building; commodities; markets; prices; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–04–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:182680 |
| By: | Rakhy, Tarig; Mohamed, Shima; Abushama, Hala; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Suliman, Gotada; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | Cereals and Flour Lentils, Rice, and Pigeon Peas Vegetables Meat and Animal Products Oilseeds, Cooking Oil, Sugar, and Fava Beans Seeds (Improved and Local) Fertilizers Diesel and Petrol Exchange Rates Labor wages Market Actors’ Perceptions |
| Keywords: | capacity building; commodities; prices; markets; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–04–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:182589 |
| By: | Asmae Idali (Innovation, Responsabilités et Développement Durable (INREDD) - UCA - Université Cadi Ayyad = Cadi Ayyad University [Marrakech]); Zakaria Fakhri (Innovation, Responsabilités et Développement Durable (INREDD) - UCA - Université Cadi Ayyad = Cadi Ayyad University [Marrakech]); Jamal Rafia (Innovation, Responsabilités et Développement Durable (INREDD) - UCA - Université Cadi Ayyad = Cadi Ayyad University [Marrakech]); Mustapha Ziky (INREDD - Innovation, Responsabilités et Développement Durable - UCA - Université Cadi Ayyad = Cadi Ayyad University [Marrakech]) |
| Abstract: | This article empirically examines the relationship between the digitalization of financial practices and tax revenues in Morocco. Financial inclusion is analyzed through its operational dimension, with a focus on the digitalization of banking services, particularly digital payments. This focus is justified by the growing role of these instruments in ensuring the traceability of economic transactions, which facilitates a more accurate identification of tax bases. The Moroccan context provides a relevant framework for assessing how financial technology reforms directly affect state revenue collection mechanisms. Methodologically, using quarterly data from 2011 (Q1) to 2024-Q4), the analysis employs the robust Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, carefully selected for its capacity to simultaneously examine long-run cointegration relationships and short-run adjustment mechanisms among the studied variables. In terms of findings, the retained model reveals a long-run cointegration relationship between the digitalization of financial practices, real GDP, and tax revenues, confirming that the expansion of digital payments contributes positively to public resource mobilization. The error correction mechanism indicates a rapid adjustment process with 70.66% of short-term deviations are absorbed each quarter. This adjustment speed suggest that the financial digitalization constitutes a structural driver of fiscal performance, extending beyond its role in social inclusion, emerging as a structural lever for sustained budgetary performance. This study contributes to the empirical literature and provides policymakers with actionable insights to design coordinated fiscal implications of financial technology. Such recommendations emphasize the need for institutional coordination to maximize fiscal gains from technological adoption and enhance overall tax system efficiency |
| Abstract: | Résumé Le présent article analyse empiriquement la relation entre la digitalisation des usages financiers et les recettes fiscales au Maroc. L'inclusion financière y est appréhendée à travers sa dimension opérationnelle, centrée sur la digitalisation des services bancaires et notamment les paiements digitaux. Cette focalisation se justifie par le rôle croissant de ces instruments dans la traçabilité des transactions économiques, laquelle favorise une meilleure identification des assiettes fiscales. Sur le plan méthodologique, l'estimation repose sur le modèle autorégressif à retard échelonné (ARDL), choisi pour sa capacité à examiner simultanément les relations de cointégration à long terme et les mécanismes d'ajustement de court terme entre les variables étudiées sur la période 2011(T1) – 2024(T4). En termes de résultats, le modèle retenu dans cette étude met en évidence une relation de long terme entre la digitalisation des usages financiers, le PIB réel et les recettes fiscales, confirmant que le développement des paiements digitaux contribue positivement à la mobilisation des ressources publiques. L'analyse dynamique révèle une correction rapide des déséquilibres : 70, 66 % des écarts de court terme sont résorbés à chaque trimestre. Cette vitesse d'ajustement démontre que la digitalisation des services bancaires ne relève pas uniquement d'une logique d'inclusion sociale, mais s'impose comme un levier structurel de performance budgétaire. En explicitant ces canaux de transmission, cette étude enrichit la littérature empirique et fournit aux pouvoirs publics des éléments d'analyse concrets pour concevoir des politiques fiscales coordonnées, aptes à renforcer l'efficacité du système tout en accompagnant la transition numérique. Mots clés : Paiement digital, services financiers digitaux, recettes fiscales, ARDL Abstract This article empirically examines the relationship between the digitalization of financial practices and tax revenues in Morocco. Financial inclusion is analyzed through its operational dimension, with a focus on the digitalization of banking services, particularly digital payments. This focus is justified by the growing role of these instruments in ensuring the traceability of economic transactions, which facilitates a more accurate identification of tax bases. The Moroccan context provides a relevant framework for assessing how financial technology reforms directly affect state revenue collection mechanisms. Methodologically, using quarterly data from 2011 (Q1) to 2024-Q4), the analysis employs the robust Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, carefully selected for its capacity to simultaneously examine long-run cointegration relationships and short-run adjustment mechanisms among the studied variables. In terms of findings, the retained model reveals a long-run cointegration relationship between the digitalization of financial practices, real GDP, and tax revenues, confirming that the expansion of digital payments contributes positively to public resource mobilization. The error correction mechanism indicates a rapid adjustment process with 70.66% of short-term deviations are absorbed each quarter. This adjustment speed suggest that the financial digitalization constitutes a structural driver of fiscal performance, extending beyond its role in social inclusion, emerging as a structural lever for sustained budgetary performance. This study contributes to the empirical literature and provides policymakers with actionable insights to design coordinated fiscal implications of financial technology. Such recommendations emphasize the need for institutional coordination to maximize fiscal gains from technological adoption and enhance overall tax system efficiency. Keywords: Financial digitalization; Digital payments; Tax revenues; Cointegration, ARDL model |
| Keywords: | Digital payment, tax revenues, ARDL, Financial digitalization, services financiers digitaux, recettes fiscales, Paiement digital |
| Date: | 2026–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05620284 |
| By: | Mohamed, Shima; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Rakhy, Tarig |
| Abstract: | Sudan’s agricultural sector in 2026 is facing unprecedented challenges due to the ongoing conflict, economic instability, and climate-related shocks. These overlapping crises have severely disrupted farming activities, market systems, and rural livelihoods across the country. The situation is particularly critical for smallholder farmers, who form the backbone of Sudan’s food production and rural economy. This report assesses the state of agriculture in conflict-affected Sudan, with a focus on input use, crop production, market access, and farming household-level challenges. It draws data from the Sudan 2024 Smallholder Farmers Survey, conducted across 13 of Sudan’s 18 states. The survey covered both the 2023/24 winter cropping season and preparations for the 2024 summer season. The findings reveal that Sudan’s agriculture sector has been severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict. Migration and displacement due to the conflict are reshaping the structure of farming households, while asset losses, reduced cultivated land, and declining livestock holdings undermine their resilience. Household incomes have contracted sharply. Engagement in agricultural activities has dropped, while reliance of farming households on non-agricultural businesses, casual labor, and humanitarian assistance has increased. Food insecurity has reached alarming levels—fewer than one in four households are food secure, while over half are severely food insecure. Food-insecure households are most prevalent in conflict-affected states, such as South Kordofan, North Kordofan, and Blue Nile. However, improvements were seen in access to input and output markets and the adoption of agricultural inputs in the 2023/24 winter season compared to the 2023 summer season. Farmers reported better availability of improved seed and fertilizer and more reliable input markets and crop-selling channels. However, these gains are overshadowed by growing uncertainty—a large portion of farmers indicated that they did not plan to cultivate crops during the 2024 summer season. Farmer’s access to finance and external assistance remained highly constrained. Farming households that used credit primarily relied on informal credit sources. More than three-quarters reported receiving no external assistance in 2024. Where support is available, its distribution remains uneven, with conflict-affected areas facing severe delivery challenges. Farmers report widespread exposure to both idiosyncratic and covariate shocks such as illness, flooding, theft, and violence—all of which compound their vulnerability. The coping strategies they use include selling household goods, reducing agricultural investment, or liquidating assets. Such choices provide short-term relief but jeopardize their long-term recovery. Perceptions of insecurity remain widespread, particularly in states experiencing active conflict. Overall, the findings paint a picture of a farming sector under extreme strain in Sudan. Without urgent, state-specific, and conflict-sensitive interventions, rural livelihoods will continue to deteriorate, further threatening national food security. The report concludes with recommendations to strengthen humanitarian support, revitalize agricultural input and finance systems, protect the assets of farming households, restore markets, and invest in building the resilience of farming households to both conflict and climate risks. Tailored interventions are needed to address state-level disparities, including food and security support in the Kordofan region, water and health services in Red Sea and Kassala states, and agricultural inputs in Aj Jazirah and River Nile. Long-term strategies must also invest in climate-smart agriculture, strengthen social protection systems, and ensure conflict-sensitive approaches that protect farmers and rebuild trust in rural communities. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; farming; livelihoods; resilience; armed conflicts; smallholders; surveys; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:182880 |
| By: | Nargelle Adnaoui (Université Hassan II de Casablanca, Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Économiques et Sociales – Aïn Chock); Hicham Mesk |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the implications of Morocco's transition toward a more flexible exchange rate regime for the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), within a context of gradual economic openness. The analysis draws on core exchange rate theories, contemporary approaches to firm competitiveness, and the structural specificities of Moroccan SMEs. The study shows that fluctuations in the dirham directly affect firms' costs, profit margins, and strategic decisions. These effects are heterogeneous and depend on SMEs' profiles and their degree of exposure to international markets. Firms endowed with strong internal resources, well-developed organizational capabilities, and greater strategic flexibility display a higher capacity to adapt to exchange rate volatility, whereas less structured SMEs appear more vulnerable to monetary shocks. The findings also highlight the critical role of the institutional environment. Administrative burdens, limited access to financing, and payment delays may amplify SMEs' vulnerability and moderate the potential benefits of increased exchange rate flexibility. This research adopts a conceptual approach based on an integrative literature review. It proposes a structured theoretical framework linking exchange rate flexibility, internal resources, adaptive strategies, and institutional factors. The analysis suggests that exchange rate flexibility represents both a source of risk and a potential lever of competitiveness for Moroccan SMEs. |
| Abstract: | Cet article examine les implications de la transition vers un régime de change plus flexible au Maroc sur la compétitivité des petites et moyennes entreprises (PME), dans un contexte d'ouverture économique progressive. L'analyse mobilise les principales théories des taux de change, les approches contemporaines de la compétitivité ainsi que les spécificités structurelles des PME marocaines. L'étude met en évidence que les fluctuations du dirham influencent directement les coûts, les marges et les choix stratégiques des entreprises. Les effets apparaissent différenciés selon le profil des PME et leur degré d'exposition aux marchés internationaux. Les entreprises disposant de ressources internes solides, de capacités organisationnelles développées et d'une flexibilité stratégique accrue présentent une meilleure capacité d'adaptation face à la volatilité du taux de change, tandis que les PME moins structurées apparaissent plus vulnérables aux chocs monétaires. Les résultats soulignent également le rôle déterminant de l'environnement institutionnel. Les contraintes administratives, les difficultés d'accès au financement et les délais de paiement peuvent amplifier la vulnérabilité des PME et moduler les effets d'une flexibilité accrue du taux de change. Cette recherche adopte une approche conceptuelle fondée sur une revue intégrative de la littérature. Elle propose un cadre théorique structuré reliant la flexibilité du taux de change, les ressources internes, les stratégies d'adaptation et les facteurs institutionnels. L'analyse met en évidence que la flexibilité du dirham constitue simultanément un facteur de risque et un levier potentiel de compétitivité pour les PME marocaines. |
| Keywords: | Institutional quality, Organizational resilience, Moroccan SMEs, SME competitiveness, Qualité institutionnelle, Résilience organisationnelle, PME marocaines, Compétitivité des PME, Flexibilité du taux de change |
| Date: | 2026–02–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05524530 |
| By: | Rakhy, Tarig; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | Sudan is facing profound economic and market disruptions driven by prolonged conflict, political instability, and severe macroeconomic deterioration. These shocks have substantially undermined agricultural production, disrupted supply chains, and weakened market functioning across the country. Agriculture, which remains central to livelihoods, food security, and economic activity in Sudan, has been particularly affected by infrastructure damage, population displacement, rising input and transport costs, and increasing fragmentation of markets. In this context, food availability and affordability have become highly volatile, with wide spatial disparities across states and localities. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; prices; value added; data collection; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:179544 |
| By: | Mohamed, Shima; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Rakhy, Tarig; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | Merchants’ expectations remained broadly stable in December. About 62.5 percent planned to continue trading at current levels, similar to November. However, the share intending to expand trading volumes declined to 20.6 percent from 26.7 percent, with planned expansions mainly concentrated in Blue Nile and South Kordofan. Only small shares of merchants planned to reduce trade volumes (4.4 percent, mainly in Gedaref and North Kordofan) or relocate to other markets (around 4 percent, notably in South Kordofan and Kassala). Temporary exits from trading or changes in product mix were negligible, while uncertainty about future plans increased to 6.6 percent, up from 3.5 percent in November. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; commodities; prices; markets; price stabilization; economic stabilization; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:181303 |
| By: | Christian Dustmann; Tommaso Frattini; Camilla Piovesan |
| Abstract: | Migration from Iran and Lebanon largely follows existing diaspora routes, especially to Germany and Canada. If displacement rises, flows will likely concentrate in a few high-income countries, with education shaping how widely destinations are considered. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:crmrep:2602 |
| By: | Kachalia, Muhammad Anas; Audi, Marc; Ali, Amjad |
| Abstract: | The worldwide financial markets experience abrupt disruptions because geopolitical conflicts create disturbances in commodity supply, investor expectations, and macroeconomic stability. This study analyses the financial market impact of the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran by examining movements in oil prices, gold prices, and US 2-year Treasury bond yields. The dataset covers the period from February to April 2026 and is divided into a pre-war period (before 28th February 2026) and a war period (after 28th February 2026) to identify structural market changes following the outbreak of the conflict. The results show that oil prices experienced the strongest reaction, increasing from USD 71.23 per barrel on 2nd March 2026 (being the first working day after the war) to USD 111.54 per barrel by 2nd April 2026, representing an increase of approximately 57 %. This sharp rise reflects investor concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and the strategic importance of global shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. In contrast, gold prices declined during the same period, falling from USD 5, 294.40 per ounce on 2nd March 2026 to USD 4, 651.50 per ounce by 2nd April 2026, indicating a partial shift of investor capital from safe-haven assets toward commodities offering higher short-term returns, including crude oil. The decline may also have been influenced by increased gold sales from central banks, including the Turkish central bank. The analysis of US 2-year Treasury yields shows an increase from 3.49 % to 3.80 % during the war period, indicating reduced demand for government bonds because investors became increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures and expanding wartime fiscal expenditures. The findings indicate that oil prices exhibited the strongest market performance during the conflict period because of heightened geopolitical risk and anticipated supply disruptions. The findings prove that geopolitical conflicts create major effects on financial markets because investors behave and drive capital investments away from the conflict-related assets, which include energy commodities. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Risk, Energy Markets, Safe-Haven, Treasury Bond Yields, Commodity Price, Investor Sentiment |
| JEL: | G01 G12 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129143 |
| By: | Warwick J. McKibbin (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Marcus Noland (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Geoffrey Shuetrim (McKibbin Software Group Pty Ltd.) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores two scenarios for the potential economic effects of a Middle East war that causes a spike in energy prices. In the first, oil prices surge for one year to around $120 per barrel, while prices also rise sharply for liquefied natural gas, refined petroleum, and fertilizer; in the second, energy prices remain elevated for three years. We find in both scenarios, global growth slows relative to our baseline projection, but the effects are felt very unevenly. Countries dependent on Middle Eastern oil, petroleum, natural gas, and fertilizers experience the largest declines in GDP and increases in inflation. The effects on different sectors vary according to their energy sources, both directly through different energy dependence and indirectly through production networks. Also, trade relationships matter because as the global economy slows, countries such as China experience a decline in export demand, worsening GDP losses, even though China has large domestic supplies of oil, gas, and fertilizer. |
| Keywords: | Iran, Middle East, oil prices, war. |
| JEL: | C6 F51 Q34 Q43 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp26-10 |
| By: | Bhattarai, Keshav; Adhikari, Ambika P. (Institute for Integrated Development Studies (IIDS)) |
| Abstract: | This article examines how accelerating automation and the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in advanced economies reshape labor markets across the Global South through interconnected channels of production, migration, and remittances. Drawing on the theories and practices of economic geography, labor economics, and development studies, the analysis conceptualizes automation as a transnational shock that contracts demand for migrant labor while simultaneously amplifying employment precarity in labor-surplus economies. The article advances a geographically grounded framework linking technology adoption in core industries with labor displacement, youth unemployment, and urban labor saturation in South Asia and North Africa. It further highlights the macroeconomic vulnerabilities in developing countries arising from remittance dependence and the role of digital media in shaping youth mobilization and political unrest in their native countries. By integrating comparative regional field evidence with a technology–labor–space framework, the study contributes to economic geography by demonstrating how digital transformation reconfigures development patterns across regions and countries. The findings underscore the limits of technology-led growth strategies in labor-abundant contexts and call for employment-centered digital policies that are spatially differentiated and institutionally grounded. Keywords: automation, artificial intelligence, labor markets, remittances, youth unemployment, economic geography, Global South. |
| Date: | 2026–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3cjve_v1 |
| By: | LY, Yahya |
| Abstract: | This study offers an updated and contextualized estimation of Mauritania’s potential GDP for the period 2014-2024, using four complementary approaches : linear trend, band-pass filter, and production function. The findings indicate a steady increase in potential output, with annual growth rates ranging from 3.2% to 3.7%, which is comparatively lower than the averages observed in Sub Saharan Africa (4% - 6%) or other low-income countries (5% - 7%). This moderate potential growth reflects several structural limitations, including a strong dependence on the extractive sector, gaps in human capital, infrastructure deficits, and institutional fragilities. These findings carry significant implications for economic policy : the need to incorporate output gap analysis into monetary policy, prioritize investment in human capital and productive infrastructure, and accelerate economic diversification. Future research could enrich these results by integrating institutional variables, conducting a sectoral breakdown of potential output, and analyzing the effects of energy transition and regional integration on Mauritania’s long-term growth prospects. |
| Keywords: | Measuring Potential Output in a Resource-Dependent Developing Economy : The Case of Mauritania |
| JEL: | A10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129091 |