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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Rachid Maghniwi (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat); Mustapha Oukassi (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat) |
| Abstract: | his research investigates the determinants of Open Banking adoption intention amongMoroccan banking clients. Drawing on a sequential explanatory mixed-methods design—aquantitative survey of 500 clients in the Rabat-Salé-Kénitraregion and 25 semi-structuredexpert interviews—the study develops and validates the UTAUT-OBM model, an extensionof UTAUT2 that raises institutional trust and perceived risk to the status of direct determinants.Structural equation modelling confirmsthe six hypotheses and explains 57% of the variance inintention. Performance expectancy (β=0.48) and trust (β=0.40) are the main drivers, whileperceived risk (β=-0.31) and effort expectancy (β=-0.25) are the main barriers. A segmentationdistinguishes three profiles: enthusiasts (32%), cautious pragmatists (45%), and skepticalresisters (23%). As Open Banking is not yet deployed in Morocco, the dependent variableremains a stated intention rather than actual behaviour. The study offers propositions for futureresearch and outlines a responsible, inclusive deployment roadmap towards 2030. |
| Abstract: | Cette recherche examine les déterminants de l'intention d'adoption de l'Open Banking par les clients bancaires marocains. Mobilisant un design mixte séquentiel explicatif — une enquête quantitative auprès de 500 clients de la région Rabat-Salé-Kénitra et 25 entretiens semi-directifs d'experts — l'étude propose et valide le modèle UTAUT-OBM, extension d'UTAUT2 érigeant la confiance institutionnelle et le risque perçu en déterminants directs. La modélisation par équations structurelles confirme les six hypothèses et explique 57 % de la variance de l'intention. La performance attendue (β=0, 48) et la confiance (β=0, 40) en sont les principaux leviers, tandis que le risque perçu (β=-0, 31) et l'effort attendu (β=-0, 25) constituent les freins majeurs. Une segmentation distingue trois profils : enthousiastes (32 %), pragmatiques prudents (45 %) et réfractaires méfiants (23 %). L'Open Banking n'étant pas encore déployé au Maroc, la variable étudiée demeure une intention déclarée, et non un comportement effectif. L'étude formule des propositions à tester dans de futures recherches et esquisse une feuille de route de déploiement responsable et inclusif à l'horizon 2030. |
| Keywords: | Moroccan banking sector, perceived risk, institutional trust, Open Banking, adoption technologique, confiance institutionnelle, risque perçu, secteur bancaire marocain Open Banking, technology adoption |
| Date: | 2026–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05765188 |
| By: | Korkut, Cem |
| Abstract: | Şirketler ve girişimler, bir ülkedeki ekonomik yapının temel taşlarından biridir. Üretimden istihdama, yatırımlardan inovasyona kadar oldukça geniş bir alanda ekonomik büyüme- ye katkı sağlayan bu yapılar, piyasa koşullarına, finansal dalgalanmalara ve düzenleyici çerçevelere karşı sürekli olarak uyum sağlamak zorundadır. 2024 yılı, küresel ekonomik gelişmelerin, finansal piyasaların ve yerel dinamiklerin etkisiyle, şirketler açısından önemli fırsatlar sunmuş ve zorluklar yaşatmıştır. COVID-19 salgını sonrası toparlanma sürecinin tamamlanması, artan enflasyonist baskılar, faiz oranlarındaki değişimler, yakın coğrafyadaki çatışmaların yol açtığı istikrarsızlık ortamı, teknolojik gelişmeler ve dijitalleşme gibi faktörler şirketlerin işleyişindeki belirleyici unsurlar olmuştur. ABD başkanlık seçimlerini Trump’ın kazanması ise özellikle ticaret politikalarının ve ilişkilerin yeniden şekillenmesi açısından yeni sonuçlara gebedir (McKinsey, 2024; SBB, 2024). Bu bağlamda; Türkiye’deki şirketlerin sermaye yapıları, kârlılık durumları, sektörel dağılımları, ticari ilişkileri ve finansal kaynaklara erişimleri gibi konular daha da önem kazanmıştır. Şirketlerin büyüme potansiyelleri, girişimcilik ekosisteminin gelişimi ve iş dünyasında yaşanan dönüşümler ekonomik istikrar açısından yakından takip edilmesi gereken unsurlar arasında yer almaktadır. Bu bölümde Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren şirketlerin 2024 yılı için güncel durumunu anlamak ve ekonomik göstergeler çerçevesinde değerlendirmek amacıyla hazırlanmıştır. |
| Keywords: | Şirketler, girişimler, startups, companies, Türkiye Ekonomisi, Turkish Economy |
| JEL: | M10 M20 M30 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126572 |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana; Oluwadare O. Ojo |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the persistence and mean-reversion properties of major agricultural commodity prices in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region using a fractional integration framework. The analysis focuses on wheat, rice, maize, sugar, and soybeans under alternative specifications for the error process, including white-noise, Bloomfield autocorrelated, and seasonal autoregressive errors. The results are found to depend critically on the specification of the disturbances. Under white-noise and seasonal autoregressive errors, the estimated fractional differencing parameters exceed one for all commodities, indicating strong persistence and providing little evidence of mean reversion. However, allowing for autocorrelation as in the Bloomfield specification lowers the estimates below unity for all commodities. Significant mean reversion is found for wheat, rice, and soybeans in the case of the original series, while only soybeans exhibit significant mean reversion in the case of the logged series. Thus, agricultural price shocks do not all have permanent effects: their persistence varies across commodities and depends on the underlying error structure. These findings have implications for strategic reserves, agricultural trade, food-price stabilization, and food-security policies in the MENA region. |
| Keywords: | agricultural price shocks, mean reversion, MENA region, fractional integration, persistence |
| JEL: | C22 Q11 Q13 Q18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13025 |
| By: | Rachid Maghniwi (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat) |
| Abstract: | This paper reconceptualises value creation in commercial banking around the notion of customer engagementtermed vinculation in continental relationship-banking practice -and tests it within a formal statistical framework. Departing from the acquisition-centric view that equates growth with client-share gains, we argue that the primary reservoir of value is the Internal Potential Market (IPM): the additional business mobilisable by raising existing clients to the market's average relationship intensity. We formalise the penetration-participation-vinculation triad, derive the IPM and its closure rate as measurable constructs, and specify a partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) in which product equipment, digital adoption and relationship tenure drive vinculation, which in turn drives per-client profitability and IPM-gap closure. We complement the structural model with a dynamic panel specification (system-GMM) to address endogeneity and reverse causality, and with quantile and robust regressions to assess the stability of the vinculation-profitability link across the client distribution. Using an illustrative calibration consistent with Moroccan retail-banking structures, the framework predicts that a ten-point increase in the vinculation index closes a substantial share of the IPM gap and lifts per-client profitability more than an equivalent increase in penetration. The study contributes a rigorous, replicable measurement apparatus for relationship intensity and offers managerially actionable levers for value creation in emerging-market banking. |
| Keywords: | value creation customer engagement vinculation internal potential market PLS-SEM dynamic panel commercial banking Morocco. JEL classification : G21, value creation, customer engagement, vinculation, internal potential market, commercial banking |
| Date: | 2026–09–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05767423 |
| By: | Nazlı Karamollaoğlu (MEF Universtiy, Turkey); Federico Trionfetti (Aix-MarseilleUniversity, CNRS, EHESS, CentraleMarseille, AMSE., AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | Following the intensification of the conflict in Syria in 2012, the number of Syrian refugees in Turkey has reached to 3.7 million as of 2021, according to the Turkish Directorate General for Migration Management. Syrian refugees have become an important source of informal employment, as almost 2 million Syrians are of working age. Therefore, this large flow of immigrants has had major impacts on the dynamics of the labor market through the abundance of largely unskilled labor. This paper provides evidence on the impact of this massive refugee inflow, resulting from the changes in labor markets, on firm-level total sales and domestic sales using a comprehensive firm-level data and city-level immigration density measures. Our results suggest that firms in cities with greater immigrant penetration saw increasing sales, mostly in labour-intensive firms. |
| Keywords: | F14, F22 Syrian Refugees, Capital Intensity, Firm Heterogeneity |
| Date: | 2026–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05768489 |
| By: | Eken, Adnan; Yalçın, Cihan; Yazıcı, Didem |
| Abstract: | It is a widely accepted view in the literature that foreign direct investments contribute to overall economic performance by financing the current account deficit in a healthy channel and increasing total factor productivity in host countries through technology transfer. In this study, basic balance sheet ratios of foreign owned companies are compared with those of domestic ones operating in Turkish manufacturing industry for the period of 2009-2023. In addition, the determinants of profit margins (an indicator of firm performance) of foreign owned companies are tested using the dynamic panel method. Moreover, export share and its interactions with companies’ foreign owned shares (CFS), scale and age groups are included as independent variables in the regressions. The results revealed that there is a positive relationship between export shares and profit margins. This positive relationship is more visible for younger, relatively smaller and firms with higher CFS. Therefore, increase in the activities of these company groups might contribute to the sustainability of the external balance in Türkiye. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investments, firm characteristics, profitability, dynamic panel |
| JEL: | C23 D22 F21 L25 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126430 |
| By: | Tabaqchali, Ahmed |
| Abstract: | The Kurdistan Regional Government’s relationship with the federal structure of Iraq was, and continues to be, premised on securing the autonomy of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq – whether as part of federal Iraq, or as an independent entity, if and when circumstances allow. A key requirement for securing this autonomy is financial independence, enabled by independent revenue streams, with the budget being the vehicle through which this independence is exercised. This paper’s focus is the region’s budget, and the structural contradictions of the budget’s revenues that make financial independence structurally unachievable. Its main argument is that the region’s budget needs both of its independent revenue streams (oil and non-oil revenues), and its share of the federal budget to meet its expenditures; however, this share can only be received if it transfers a large share of its oil production and of its non-oil revenues to the federal government – in the process substantially reducing overall revenues, a case of ‘Catch-22’. Breaking the catch requires a reset of the relationships governing Iraq’s federal structure, grounded in a shared conception of that structure and expressed through the enactment of a federal oil and gas law; together with the institutions needed for its operation, regardless of the political makeup of the federal and regional governments. This would preserve the integrity of the country’s federal structure, including the KRI’s autonomy, which paradoxically is enhanced by a deeper integration in the federation rather than by the pursuit of independent revenue streams. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 E6 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:141221 |
| By: | Eken, Adnan; Yazıcı, Didem |
| Abstract: | In the study, real exchange rate indices of manufacturing industry sectors for the European Union (EU) region are calculated based on Turkey's foreign producer and domestic producer prices, an export competitiveness indicator is defined using these indices and the competitiveness of manufacturing industry exports of Türkiye to the EU is examined through this indicator. In the second part of the study, it is shown that the calculated domestic PPI-based real exchange rate index is an indicator of the production cost of exports and the foreign PPI-based real exchange rate index is the euro-based real sales price of exports, and the reflection of the change in export production costs on the foreign sales price is examined for the entire manufacturing industry and the two major exporting sectors, motor vehicles and ready-made clothing. |
| Keywords: | Sectoral Real Exchange Rate, Export, NARDL method |
| JEL: | C22 C43 F14 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126432 |
| By: | Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude (Dalhousie University); Aydemir, Abdurrahman (Sabanci University); Kirdar, Murat (Koc University); Turan, Belgi (TOBB University of Economics and Technology) |
| Abstract: | We ask whether cultural constraints are a development bottleneck in conservative middle-income economies, limiting women's entry into manufacturing and slowing fertility decline and human-capital accumulation. We exploit the 1989 forced migration of ethnic Turks from Bulgaria to Turkiye. Refugee women shared native women's language, religion, and ethnicity but had much higher employment, especially in manufacturing. We combine difference-in-differences with an instrument based on where the state settled earlier ethnic Turkish migrants. Exposure to refugee women raised native women's participation and employment a decade later, especially in male-dominated tradable manufacturing. Native men saw no significant gains. A one-percentage-point higher refugee-to-native ratio raises native women's manufacturing employment by 0.9 percentage points, about 23 percent of the 1990 mean. Exposure reduced fertility and raised middle-school completion among native girls and boys. The results suggest that an exogenous cultural shock relaxed a binding constraint on women's modern-sector entry, a margin central to structural transformation and demographic transition. Intermarriage and World Values Survey evidence is consistent with this view. |
| Keywords: | structural transformation, demographic transition, cultural barriers, refugees, women's employment, manufacturing |
| JEL: | J16 J13 O11 O14 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18983 |
| By: | Baghdadi, Leila; Gatti, Roberta V.; Islam, Asif M.; Coronado, Jesica Torres; Zaveri, Esha Dilip |
| Abstract: | Tunisia is among the Mediterranean’s most climate-exposed countries facing acute water scarcity. Although a growing literature has documented the effects of extreme weather on firms, few studies have used longitudinal administrative data to track how business performance evolves over time. This paper draws on about two decades of firm-level records from Tunisia’s formal business registry (Répertoire National des Entreprises), linking firm locations to satellite-based precipitation measures at the delegation level, which is Tunisia’s second-level administrative unit. Using more than 1 million firm-year observations, the study finds that droughts—defined as negative precipitation shocks—reduce total revenues and revenues per worker by approximately 12 and 11 percent, respectively. Large formal firms, non-exporting firms, and domestic firms are disproportionately vulnerable. The results are robust across a range of sensitivity analyses. |
| Date: | 2026–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11472 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Despite the challenging external environment, the GCC economies have been resilient. Non-hydrocarbon activity has remained robust amid strong domestic demand supported by the reform momentum, limited spillovers from regional, as well as the modest direct impact of higher U.S. tariffs given the exemption of energy products and limited trade ties with the U.S. While external balances narrowed amid oil production cuts and robust imports, the external positions remain overall strong. The economic outlook remains favorable but risks are tilted to the downside amidst elevated global uncertainty. Economic activity will be supported by the unwinding of oil production cuts, the expansion of natural gas production, and strong reform and project implementation facilitated by ample policy buffers. External buffers would remain comfortable despite narrower current account balances driven by higher imports. The near-term risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, as oil prices could decline and financial conditions tighten amid high uncertainty. Over the medium term, ongoing global structural shifts pose two-sided risks for the GCC economies. |
| Keywords: | Gcc country; IMF staff; GCC economy; labor market; oil price; Oil prices; Oil; Macroprudential policy; Global; Middle East; Central Asia; Africa; Caribbean |
| Date: | 2025–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfpps:2025/043 |
| By: | Novak, Christoph |
| Abstract: | This article examines the historical development of Berberism in Algeria from the emergence of Algerian nationalist movements in the 1930s to the aftermath of the Black Spring of 2001. It argues that Berberism should not be understood as a stable political ideology with a fixed substantive meaning, but rather as a changing political practice through which the idea of a distinctive Berber identity has been mobilised in response to particular political contexts. The analysis distinguishes three phases in the development of Berber activism. The first, exemplified by the Berber Crisis of 1948–49, was largely an elite struggle within the Algerian nationalist movement over the definition of the Algerian nation and the recognition of its linguistic and cultural plurality. The second, crystallised in the Berber Spring of 1980, transformed Berberism into a broader social movement centred on cultural recognition, linguistic rights and opposition to state Arabisation. During the subsequent period of political liberalisation and civil war, Berber activism became increasingly institutionalised through political parties, social movements and transnational networks. The third phase, associated with the Black Spring of 2001, marked a significant reorientation. The declining legitimacy of established Berberist parties and the emergence of the Citizens’ Movement shifted political mobilisation toward territorial, socio-economic and increasingly Kabylia-centred claims. Drawing on concepts of political identity, recognition, nationalism and imagined communities, the article argues that this development contributed to the emergence of a specifically Kabyle nationalism. Whereas Berberism provided a broader cultural and transnational identity, it lacked a clearly defined territorial project capable of consolidating a common political community. The post-2001 mobilisation in Kabylia, by contrast, increasingly linked cultural identity to a specific homeland, territorial political structures and demands for autonomy. The article therefore conceptualises the transition from Berberism to Kabyle nationalism not as a linear transformation, but as a reconfiguration of political actors, strategies, territorial imaginaries and claims to collective self-determination. The article was written in 2012. |
| Date: | 2026–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:urtcp_v1 |