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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Manal Nachite (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Taoufiq Yahyaoui (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the dynamics of urban growth and the challenges of territorial governance in three major Moroccan cities: Rabat, Casablanca, and Tangier. Drawing on a panel data set spanning the period from 2010 to 2023, we employ an econometric model using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method to examine the impact of multiple socio-economic variables on urban growth. The study primarily focuses on the role of local governance, public investment, unemployment, and access to basic services as key explanatory variables. Our findings highlight that territorial governance exerts a strong and statistically significant positive effect on urban growth. Similarly, public investments appear to be a powerful driver of urban development by stimulating infrastructure expansion and local economic activities. Access to essential urban services such as healthcare, education, and transportation also plays a vital role in enhancing urban dynamics and reducing spatial inequalities. Conversely, the results indicate that high unemployment rates continue to constrain urban expansion, underscoring the importance of inclusive labor market policies. The comparison between the three cities reveals that Tangier, benefiting from large-scale infrastructure projects such as the Tangier Med Port, experiences a more dynamic urban growth compared to Casablanca and Rabat. This research provides policy-relevant into the mechanisms of urban transformation in Morocco. It suggests that strengthening governance structures, improving coordination between territorial actors, and increasing investment in basic services are essential for sustainable and equitable urban development. The findings contribute to a better understanding of urbanization processes in the global south, and inform strategies to foster resilient and inclusive cities. |
| Abstract: | Cet article examine les dynamiques de croissance urbaine et les défis de la gouvernance territoriale dans trois grandes villes marocaines : Rabat, Casablanca et Tanger. S'appuyant sur un ensemble de données de panel couvrant la période de 2010 à 2023, nous utilisons un modèle économétrique utilisant la méthode des moindres carrés ordinaires (OLS) pour examiner l'impact de multiples variables socio-économiques sur la croissance urbaine. L'étude se concentre principalement sur le rôle de la gouvernance locale, des investissements publics, du chômage et de l'accès aux services de base comme variables explicatives clés. Nos résultats soulignent que la gouvernance territoriale exerce un effet positif fort et statistiquement significatif sur la croissance urbaine. De même, les investissements publics semblent être un puissant moteur du développement urbain en stimulant l'expansion des infrastructures et les activités économiques locales. L'accès aux services urbains essentiels tels que les soins de santé, l'éducation et les transports joue également un rôle vital dans l'amélioration des dynamiques urbaines et la réduction des inégalités spatiales. À l'inverse, les résultats indiquent que des taux de chômage élevés continuent de freiner l'expansion urbaine, soulignant l'importance des politiques inclusives du marché du travail. La comparaison entre les trois villes révèle que Tanger, bénéficiant de projets d'infrastructure à grande échelle tels que le port Tanger Med, connaît une croissance urbaine plus dynamique par rapport à Casablanca et Rabat. Cette recherche fournit des informations politiques pertinentes sur les mécanismes de transformation urbaine au Maroc. Il suggère que le renforcement des structures de gouvernance, l'amélioration de la coordination entre les acteurs territoriaux et l'augmentation des investissements dans les services de base sont essentiels pour un développement urbain durable et équitable. Les résultats contribuent à une meilleure compréhension des processus d'urbanisation dans le sud global, et éclairent les stratégies pour favoriser des villes résilientes et inclusives. |
| Keywords: | urban growth, territorial governance, econometric model, Morocco, Moroccan cities. Classification JEL: R11, R58, H70, O18, C23, R13, urban growth territorial governance econometric model Morocco Moroccan cities. Classification JEL: R11 R58 H70 O18 C23 R13 |
| Date: | 2025–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05727059 |
| By: | Louis Steevenne Assoumou-Mve Ngonga (ENCGT - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion de Tanger - UAE - Abdelmalek Essaadi University [Tétouan] = Université Abdelmalek Essaadi [Tétouan]); Rhizlane Benrrezzouq (Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion Oujda); Abdeslam Chraibi (ENCGT - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion de Tanger - UAE - Abdelmalek Essaadi University [Tétouan] = Université Abdelmalek Essaadi [Tétouan]) |
| Abstract: | In the field of HR Management, the employee turnover rate is widely recognized as a key performance indicator. The metric quantifies the number of employees who depart from and subsequently join a company within a given period. If the rate is high, the company is operating at a loss. Conversely, a relatively low rate can be indicative of low employee turnover, which can be beneficial for a company. The concept of employee retention, which is defined as the number of employees retained by a company during a given year, is generally opposed to the concept of employee turnover. While initially within the purview of human resources, the importance of employee retention has grown significantly for business leaders, particularly within the context of SMEs. The primary focus of this research is on internal company dysfunctions. One case study is presented, in a Moroccan context where small and medium-sized enterprises play a predominant role. The SME studied has a problem of employee retention. We examine the employer-employee relationship to identify the deficiencies that result in frequent employee departures. Data is collected through observation and interviews. Our analysis indicates that the management style employed by the employer, particularly the social dynamics within the company, plays a pivotal role in employee retention. The proposal includes a focus on socio-economic approach to management as a potential solution. |
| Abstract: | En GRH, il existe un indicateur des plus connus qui est le taux de rotation du personnel. Il évalue le nombre de départ et des arrivées des employés au sein d'une entreprise pendant une année. Si son niveau est élevé, l'entreprise est dans le rouge. En revanche, un niveau relativement bas indique une faible rotation du personnel, ce qui peut être bon pour une entreprise. Il est généralement en opposition avec le concept de fidélisation du personnel qui définit le nombre d'employés gardé par une entreprise pendant une année. Quoiqu'au départ cantonné à la RH, la rétention des salariés est devenue primordial pour les dirigeants d'entreprise surtout pour les PME. Cette recherche s'intéresse aux dysfonctionnements internes en entreprise. C'est un cas d'étude qui est mis de l'avant, dans un contexte marocain où la petite et moyenne entreprise a une place prépondérante. La PME étudiée a un problème, celui de la rétention des salariés. Nous étudions ce problème en nous intéressant à la relation employeur - employés afin de déceler les manquements qui conduisent aux fréquents départs des salariés. Le recueil des données est fait par le moyen de l'observation et des entretiens. Nous sommes arrivés à la conclusion que la gestion des employés par l'employeur, notamment les relations sociales qu'ils entretiennent au sein de l'entreprise sont celles qui poussent les salariés à quitter l'entreprise étudiée. Le management socio-économique est proposé comme une piste de solutions. |
| Keywords: | deficiencies, Morocco, socio-economic approach to management, employee turnover, SMEs, employee retention, fidélisation du personnel, dysfonctionnements, PME, rétention des salariés, rotation du personnel, management socio-économique, Maroc |
| Date: | 2026–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05711596 |
| By: | Raja El Asri (FSJES Agadir, Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]); Abdelaziz Messaoudi (FSJES Agadir, Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]) |
| Abstract: | In the dynamic and frequently under-researched domain of emerging financial markets, this research rigorously analyzes the influence of behavioral biases and financial literacy on the multifaceted aspects of investment decision-making among individual investors in Morocco. The central aim is to investigate bivariate correlations between eleven behavioral biases categorized across cognitive, emotional, and mental/social dimensions and the three dimensions of investment decision-making: intuition, perceived rationality, and overall satisfaction.The research adopts a distinctly exploratory design that is firmly situated within a quantitative, hypothetico-deductive paradigm. The sample comprises 411 individual investors who are actively involved in the Casablanca Stock Exchange, selected through a self-administered online questionnaire that was distributed between January and March 2025. The analysis of data was performed utilizing SPSS (version 30), employing non-parametric statistical methodologies, particularly Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, as a result of the non-normality of the variable distributions, which was substantiated by the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test.The findings underscore that specific behavioral constructs such as optimism, mental accounting, and financial literacy exert a constructive impact on all three facets of decision-making, characterized by consistently robust and affirmative correlations. Conversely, various biases including anchoring, representativeness, availability heuristic, and gambler's fallacy exhibit significant adverse associations, particularly influencing perceived rationality and overall satisfaction. Regret aversion emerges as a complex bias, revealing a dualistic nature with a notably positive correlation with satisfaction.Inspite of the methodological limitations related to the application of convenience sampling and a cross-sectional methodology, the research yields considerable theoretical contributions by clarifying the intricate relationships between behavioral biases and cognitive processes relevant to investment. Furthermore, it articulates concrete practical ramifications, particularly the imperative to augment investor cognizance regarding financial literacy and the psychological mechanisms that may compromise the integrity of decision-making quality.The uniqueness of this investigation is attributed to the concurrent and multifaceted evaluation of behavioral biases, the implementation of an exploratory framework reliant on primary data sources, and its empirical foundation in a relatively understudied emerging market. These characteristics confer both scholarly and contextual relevance to the research, thereby facilitating subsequent inquiries into the behavioral dynamics associated with financial decision-making within Morocco and analogous economies. |
| Abstract: | Dans le paysage évolutif et peu méconnu des marchés financiers émergents, cette enquête vise à évaluer systématiquement les conséquences des biais comportementaux et de la littératie financière sur les différents paramètres de la prise de décision d'investissement des investisseurs individuels au Maroc. L'objectif principal est d'évaluer les associations bivariées entre onze biais distincts classés selon les classifications cognitives, émotionnelles et mentales/sociales etles trois facettes de la prise de décision d'investissement : l'intuition, la rationalité perçue et la satisfaction globale.La méthodologie employée est purement exploratoire et s'aligne sur un cadre quantitatif hypothético-déductif. L'échantillon comprend 411 investisseurs individuels engagés activement à la Bourse de Casablanca, qui ont été recrutés au moyen d'un questionnaire en ligne auto-administré diffusé entre janvier et mars 2025. L'analyse des données, effectuée à l'aide du logiciel SPSS (version 30), est fondée sur des tests statistiques non paramétriques, en particulier le coefficient de corrélation de rang de Spearman, en raison de la non-normalité confirmée des données, comme l'indique le test de Kolmogorov-Smirnov.Les résultats indiquent que certains biais cognitifs exercent un effet bénéfique sur diverses dimensions de la prise de décision, notamment l'optimisme, la comptabilité mentale et la littératie financière, qui présentent toutes des corrélations positives avec l'intuition, la rationalité et les niveaux de satisfaction. À l'inverse, d'autres biais dont l'ancrage, la représentativité, la disponibilité et le sophisme du joueur révèlent des corrélations négatives considérables, influençant particulièrement la rationalité et la satisfaction perçues, tandis que le phénomène de l'aversion au regret présente une double nature, ayant principalement une influence positive sur la satisfaction.Malgré les limites inhérentes de notre étude, qui découlent de l'utilisation de l'échantillonnage par convenance et d'une méthodologie transversale, elle fournit des informations théoriques substantielles en mettant l'accent sur l'influence nuancée des biais comportementaux sur les divers éléments de la prise de décisiond'investissement. De plus, elle présente des implications pratiques distinctes, notamment l'impératif d'améliorer la sensibilisation des investisseurs à l'égard de la littératie financière et de l'atténuation des préjugés psychologiques.Le caractère unique de cette enquête réside dans la nature multidimensionnelle des biais examinés simultanément, l'utilisation d'une méthodologie exploratoire fondée sur des données primaires et son fondement empirique dans un marché qui demeure relativement sous-exploré, donnant ainsi une importance académique et contextuelle considérable à cette recherche. |
| Keywords: | Moroccan individual investors, financial literacy, investment decision-making, Behavioral biases, corrélations bivariées (Spearman). Classification JEL : D91, G41. Paper type: Empirical research, bivariate correlations (Spearman) JEL Classification: D91, G41 Behavioral biases, G4, G11, bivariate correlations (Spearman) JEL Classification: D91 G11 G4 G41. Paper type: Empirical research, Moroccan individual investors, financial literacy, investment decision-making, corrélations bivariées (Spearman). Classification JEL : D91 G11 G4 G41 Behavioral biases, investisseurs individuels marocains, littératie financière, prise de décision d'investissement, Biais comportementaux |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05691184 |
| By: | Boughabi, Houssam |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a Kaleckian-inspired reduced-form framework for analysing wage-income dynamics in Morocco, focusing on the interaction between macroeconomic conditions, fiscal policy, and labour-market pressure. Because consistent annual wage-income data are unavailable, household final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP is used as a reduced-form proxy. GDP growth serves as a profitability proxy, while a constructed institutional-fiscal indicator combines tax revenue and unemployment. The empirical analysis applies XGBoost, Random Forest, and LSTM models to capture nonlinear predictive relationships that conventional linear specifications may overlook. Using annual Moroccan data for 2000-2022, the study evaluates model performance through chronological out-ofsample prediction and considers both the level and year-on-year change of the proxy. The contribution is a reduced-form empirical framework linking Kaleckian distributional theory with nonlinear predictive methods to explore how fiscal and labour-market conditions interact with income dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Real wage-income dynamics, distributive conflict, post-Keynesian economics, machine learning econometrics, fiscal institutions, Morocco |
| JEL: | E12 E24 E60 C45 C53 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:343561 |
| By: | Khalil Aït-Saïd; Adil Cherkhaoui; Guillaume R M Déprez (UB - Université de Bordeaux, LabPsy - Laboratoire de psychologie - UB - Université de Bordeaux) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between perceived corporate social responsibility (CSR) and intention to leave the organization through a cross-cultural comparison between France and Morocco. It also explores the roles of CSR sensitivity and CSR information sharing as antecedents, and of person-organization fit (PO-fit) as a mediator of the relationship under study. Two cross-sectional samples were collected: French (n = 243) and Moroccan (n = 234). Invariance and structural equation modeling path analyses were conducted to test the hypothesized model. Results reveal partial scalar (mean) invariance across the measurement scales, indicating similar structures between France and Morocco. Path analyses support the proposed model and highlight differences between the samples. A negative relationship between perceived CSR and intention to leave the organization is mediated by PO-fit. This cross-cultural study advances micro-CSR by integrating CSR sensitivity and CSR information sharing into a unified model of their joint and distinct effects on perceived CSR, PO-fit, and turnover, extending signaling theory by positioning sensitivity as a boundary condition. Findings showed that organizations must adopt practices that align with the country's cultural reality. Nevertheless, cross-cultural training is essential for multinational organizations operating in France and Morocco. However, the survey was not multilevel or longitudinal, which limits the ability to generalize the results to other countries. This study highlights the mediating role of PO-fit in the relationship between CSR perception and turnover intention, determined by CSR sensitivity and information sharing. It offers a new direction to research on micro-CSR and its cross-cultural dimensions. |
| Keywords: | corporate social responsibility, cross-cultural, information sharing, person-organization fit |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05716122 |
| By: | Pesaran, M. H.; Smith, R. |
| Abstract: | The economic challenges facing the Iranian economy have acquired new dimensions since the wars following the Israeli attack on Iran in June 2025, the further US-Israel attacks in February 2026 and the continued US-Iran conflict over control of shipping in the Persian Gulf. This paper begins with a historical overview of the Iranian macro economy since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran following the February 1979 Revolution, with particular emphasis on the evolution of output, inflation and the exchange rates. It then examines the current economic conditions and discusses possible developments and commensurate policy responses. Our central scenario is a relatively positive one, in which military engagement ends and is replaced by a state of non-aggression, a continued hostile truce. In these circumstances, with appropriate policies, inflation may be reduced from its recent high levels with modest expansion of output. However, there are more negative scenarios that involve continued military engagement and a siege economy. There is concern in Iran that inflation, which has been persistent and tending to rise over time, will take off into hyperinflation. We examine this possibility, bearing in mind the resources (domestic and international) required to finance the massive reconstruction program needed to repair the wartime damage. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic Effects of Sanctions, Exchange Rate, Inflation and Output, Hyperinflation, Islamabad Memorandum, Policy Options |
| JEL: | E66 F68 G22 |
| Date: | 2026–08–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2672 |
| By: | Raja El Asri (FSJES Agadir, Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]); Abdelaziz Messaoudi (FSJES Agadir, Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]) |
| Abstract: | Financial decision-making has conventionally been conceptualized within the classical framework of rational agents functioning in efficient markets. This theoretical construct, represented by Homo economicus, posits that individuals possess complete information, demonstrate consistent behavior, and are solely dedicated to optimizing expected utility. Nevertheless, enduring market anomalies such as bubbles, excessive volatility, and momentum phenomena have called into question this rationalist perspective. These discrepancies underscore that investors frequently operate under the influence of psychological and social determinants rather than pure rationality. Behavioral finance has emerged as a discipline to bridge the existing gaps by synthesizing perspectives from psychology and sociology. It elucidates how cognitive biases, emotional responses, and heuristics such as overconfidence, loss aversion, and herding behavior consistently influence investment decisions. Prospect Theory, for example, illustrates that investors assess gains and losses asymmetrically, frequently resulting in suboptimal decision-making. Contemporary frameworks, such as Andrew Lo's Adaptive Market Hypothesis, endeavor to reconcile classical and behavioral paradigms by conceptualizing markets as evolutionary systems in which rationality evolves in response to shifting environmental conditions. Evidence from emerging economies, such as Morocco, substantiates these observations. Research indicates that investors in Morocco demonstrate analogous behavioral characteristics, particularly overconfidence, herding behavior, and loss aversion that markedly affect their investment results. Integrating classical finance theories with behavioral finance principles facilitates a more nuanced comprehension of financial behavior. Acknowledging both rational analytical frameworks and psychological inclinations enhances the development of superior financial models, more effective policy formulation, and refined decision-making strategies for both investors and managers. |
| Keywords: | Cognitive Biases, Efficient Market Hypothesis, Prospect Theory, Investment Decisions, Morocco, Intuition, Behavioral Finance, Rationality |
| Date: | 2025–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05691219 |
| By: | Giulia Buccione (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros); Martín A. Rossi (Universidad de San Andrés) |
| Abstract: | We provide experimental evidence from rural Egypt on the benefits of incorporating sensory familiarity into the design of health interventions in developing countries. Using a “taste-preserving” filtration technology that mimics the local water profile, we find adoption rates of 91 percent, far exceeding the 50 percent ceiling previously documented for chlorinated water. Willingness to pay is 61 percent higher for filtered water than chlorinated water. Mechanism tests show that familiar taste strongly shapes perceptions of water’s healthiness, suggesting that alignment with imprinted sensory preferences improves uptake of health technologies. |
| Keywords: | Chlorination, water-borne diseases, field experiments, Egypt. |
| JEL: | D10 I10 C93 Q53 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2026_2609 |
| By: | Biehler, Nadine; Meier, Amrei |
| Abstract: | Jordanien zeigt exemplarisch, dass Aufnahmebereitschaft und internationale Unterstützung nicht ausreichen, um in langanhaltenden Vertreibungssituationen dauerhafte Lösungen zu erreichen: Trotz vergleichsweise günstiger Voraussetzungen ist für viele dort lebende syrische Flüchtlinge keine langfristige Perspektive erkennbar. Stattdessen ist durch das Zusammenspiel jordanischer Regierungsinteressen und internationaler Geberprioritäten ein System begrenzter Teilhabe für die Geflüchteten entstanden. Es ermöglicht vielen Syrer:innen, ihren Alltag unter prekären Bedingungen weitgehend eigenständig zu organisieren, bietet ihnen aber weder substantielle Rechte noch Zukunftsperspektiven. Diese Zwischenarrangements - international finanziert und auf temporären Aufenthalt ausgerichtet - haben lange funktioniert. Weil die Hilfsgelder sinken und die Rückkehrerwartungen steigen, werden diese Arrangements zunehmend brüchig. Für Geber wie Deutschland stellt sich daher die Frage, wie Unterstützung künftig gestaltet werden kann, wenn freiwillige Rückkehr für viele nicht realistisch ist, Resettlement kaum zur Verfügung steht und lokale Integration politisch blockiert bleibt. |
| Keywords: | syrische Flüchtlinge in Jordanien, Flüchtlingspolitik, Refugee and Resilience Plan, 3RP, Jordan Response Plan, JRP, Globaler Flüchtlingspakt, Global Compact on Refugees, GCR, Jordan Compact, UNHCR Asylum Seeker/Refugee Certificate, Cash for Work |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:343136 |
| By: | Abid, Senan |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of military spending on developmental outcomes associated with the social contract in Middle Eastern countries over the period 1995-2023. The Human Development Index (HDI) is used as an indicator of developmental outcomes associated with the social contract. It also serves as a proxy for the state's ability to transform public economic resources into developmental gains in health, education, and standards of living. The study relies on panel data covering 17 countries and employs an econometric framework that combines static models with a dynamic System GMM model to address temporal persistence, endogeneity, and unobserved heterogeneity. The results indicate a negative and statistically significant effect of military spending on the Human Development Index, an effect that persists after controlling for key macroeconomic factors and after incorporating the dynamic dimension. The findings also reveal a high degree of persistence in HDI, reflecting its cumulative nature over time. Regarding the institutional context, the results do not provide strong evidence of an effective moderating role for the Polity index, as its impact appears limited and statistically weak. Overall, the findings suggest that military spending constitutes a persistent distributive pressure that affects developmental outcomes associated with the social contract within the limits allowed by the data and the adopted methodology. |
| Keywords: | Military spending, social contract, human development, Middle East, political institutions |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:343560 |
| By: | Aydın, Yaşar |
| Abstract: | Der Nato-Gipfel vom 7. und 8. Juli 2026 in Ankara bescherte Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdoægan einen persönlichen Prestigegewinn und der Türkei eine symbolische Aufwertung ihrer Stellung in der Nato sowie als Sicherheitspartner für USA und EU. Doch die konkreten Ergebnisse waren bescheiden. Die von der türkischen Regierung wahrgenommenen sicherheitspolitischen Bedrohungen sowie das Interesse, die internationale Vernetzung voranzutreiben und die Exportchancen der expandierenden Rüstungsindustrie des Landes auszubauen, erfordern engere Kooperation mit den USA und der EU. Dadurch stößt das Leitbild der "nationalen strategischen Autonomie", das Ankara gegenüber Washington wie Brüssel verfolgt, an seine Grenzen. Die beim Gipfel in der türkischen Hauptstadt demonstrierte Nähe zum US-Präsidenten Donald Trump könnte sich als Hindernis für das Ziel der türkischen Führung erweisen, die Türkei als europäische Mittelmacht stärker in die europäische Sicherheitsarchitektur einzubinden. Umgekehrt könnte eine Annäherung an die EU das Verhältnis zu Trump belasten. Trotz solcher Dilemmata bleibt eine strategische Rückkehr zur "klassischen Westorientierung" ausgeschlossen. |
| Keywords: | Strategische Autonomie, türkische Außenpolitik, Nato-Gipfel 2026, Westorientierung, strategische Autonomie, Erdoægan, Trump, Türkei, USA, EU, Deutschland, Geopolitik, Rüstungskooperation, Nato-Forum für Verteidigung, Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA, Montreux-Übereinkommen |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:343135 |