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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Gomez Tamayo, Sofia; Alrayess, Dana; Moraes, Gael; Koettl-Brodmann, Johannes |
| Abstract: | Female labor force participation (FLFP) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remains the lowest globally, averaging just 19% in 2023 compared to a global average of 48%. Persistent gender unequal social norms, disproportionate unpaid care responsibilities, restrictive legal frameworks, skills mismatches, and limited access to supportive infrastructure continue to suppress women’s economic engagement. This paper examines the structural drivers behind these longstanding gaps and highlights the region’s heterogeneity in barriers, outcomes, and reform trajectories. Drawing on data from international and national statistical sources, the paper highlights Saudi Arabia as a case of rapid transformation. Between 2017 and 2023, female labor force participation more than doubled following sweeping legal reforms, deployment of various supporting active labor market programs, and effective communication initiatives around social norms under Vision 2030. Key drivers include expanded private-sector demand for female labor, sectoral diversification, and the correction of misperceived norms regarding women’s employment. The paper also identifies remaining constraints, including childcare gaps, mobility barriers, and public-private employment preferences and proposes policy recommendations for MENA countries aimed at expanding women’s economic participation through coordinated legal reforms, care-economy investments, flexible work arrangements, labor demand activation, and norm-change interventions. |
| Date: | 2026–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:208985 |
| By: | Abdenabi Sbai (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah, ENCGF - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion De Fès - USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah); Younes Khaidar (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah, ENCGF - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion De Fès - USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah) |
| Abstract: | Abstract This article analyzes healthcare professionals' perceptions of the implementation of Territorial Health Groups (GST) in Morocco, focusing on the conditions considered crucial to the success of this organizational transformation. Using a qualitative interpretative approach, the study is based on semi-structured interviews conducted with stakeholders at different levels of the healthcare system. The results show that professionals perceive GSTs as a potentially transformative reform, but one whose scope remains conditioned by its territorial anchoring and the concrete modalities of its implementation. The analysis highlights several organizational and institutional obstacles, including a lack of governance, insufficient communication, and persistent centralization. At the same time, stakeholders identify levers for success such as participatory governance, inter-institutional coordination, and managerial modernization. The results also highlight the importance of professional ownership and resource availabilityin ensuring the effectiveness of the reform.Ultimately, the study suggests that the success of Territorial Health Groups does not rely solely on their institutional framework but primarily depends on the establishment of effective, participatory, and operationally supported territorial governance, which is essential to translating the reform's ambition into tangible organizational outcomes. Drawing on a comparative analysis of experiences in France, Quebec, and Rwanda, the article highlights the specificities of the Moroccan context. It thus contributes to the literature on territorial governance of health systems and offers food for thought for public decision-makers. |
| Abstract: | Résumé Cet article analyse les perceptions des professionnels de santé à l'égard de l'implémentation des Groupements Sanitaires Territoriaux (GST) au Maroc, en mettant l'accent sur les conditions jugées déterminantes pour la réussite de cette transformation organisationnelle. À travers une approche qualitative interprétative, l'étude repose sur des entretiens semi-directifs menés auprès d'acteurs appartenant à différents niveaux du système de santé. Les résultats montrent que les professionnels perçoivent les GST comme une réforme potentiellement structurante, mais dont la portée demeure conditionnée par son ancrage territorial et par les modalités concrètes de mise en œuvre. L'analyse met en évidence plusieurs obstacles organisationnels et institutionnels, notamment un déficit de gouvernance, une communication insuffisante et une centralisation persistante. En parallèle, les acteurs identifient des leviers de réussite tels que la gouvernance participative, la coordination inter-établissements et la modernisation managériale. Les résultats soulignent également l'importance de l'appropriation professionnelle et de la disponibilité des ressources, pour assurer l'effectivité de la réforme. En définitive, il ressort de cette recherche que la réussite des Groupements Sanitaires Territoriaux ne repose pas uniquement sur leur cadre institutionnel, mais dépend principalement de la mise en place d'une gouvernance territoriale effective, participative et dotée de capacités opérationnelles, condition essentielle pour traduire l'ambition de la réforme en résultats organisationnels concrets. S'appuyant sur une analyse comparative avec les expériences française, québécoise et rwandaise, l'article met en lumière les spécificités du contexte marocain. Il contribue ainsi à la littérature sur la gouvernance territoriale des systèmes de santé et offre des pistes de réflexion pour les décideurs publics. |
| Keywords: | Health system reform, Territorial governance, Integration of services and care, Organizational change, Perceptions of health professionals, Réforme des systèmes de santé, Gouvernance territoriale, Intégration des services et des soins, Changement organisationnel, Perceptions des professionnels de santé |
| Date: | 2026–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05531940 |
| By: | Ahmet Gulek |
| Abstract: | I study the effects of Syrian refugees, who are denied work permits and thus can only work informally, on Turkish firms and workers. Using travel distance as an instrument for refugee location, I show that low-skill natives lose both informal and formal salaried jobs. I document two mechanisms: formal firms reduce their formal labor demand and new firms do not enter the formal economy. Estimates imply an elasticity of substitution of 10 between formal and informal workers. Counterfactual exercises predict that granting refugees work permits would have created up to 120, 000 formal jobs in the economy through higher informal wages. |
| Keywords: | Informality, Immigration, Refugee crises, Work permits |
| JEL: | D22 J15 J21 J46 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2584 |
| By: | Yang, Dilan; Chattha, Muhammad Khudadad |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically assesses Saudi Arabia’s industrial policy using data on policy announcements matched to industry-level exports and firm-level outcomes. It first provides a comprehensive overview of the country’s industrial policy landscape, documenting the scale, timing, sectoral coverage, and policy instruments associated with industrial policy interventions. The analysis then evaluates the effects of these interventions on both external and domestic out-comes. On the external side, no statistically significant impact on exports is detected over the sample period, consistent with evidence that structural transformation and export upgrading typically unfold over long horizons. On the domestic side, industrial policy interventions are examined at the firm level along both the extensive and intensive margins. On the extensive margin, industrial policies lead to a reduction in the number of active firms within the observed sample, suggesting a shift in firm composition within industry. On the intensive margin, local content requirements lead to higher employment but lower capital investment, while domestic subsidies correspond to transitory declines in earnings. Overall, the findings point to early adjustment dynamics, particularly labor absorption, rather than immediate gains in exports or profitability, underscoring the importance of improved policy targeting and coordination to achieve longer-term structural transformation. |
| Date: | 2026–03–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11329 |
| By: | Barbaros Eris; Sureyya Guder Kosgeroglu; Zeynep Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | [EN] This study examines patterns of inter-industry worker mobility in Türkiye using a structural gravity model framework. The study focuses on two key dimensions of mobility frictions: “Task Distance”, which measures the dissimilarity in skill requirements across industries, and “Transaction Index”, which captures the intensity of input–output relationships between sectors. Leveraging administrative matched employer-employee data from the Social Security Institution and firm-level trade data from the Revenue Administration, bilateral worker flows across industries between 2014 and 2023 are analyzed. Our results show that worker transitions are more likely to occur between industries with similar task structures and stronger transactional ties. In contrast, sector-specific performance indicators such as earning levels and job creation or destruction rates contribute only marginally to explaining worker flows. Only job creation in destination industries and job destruction in source industries exhibit significant effects. These findings underscore the importance of structural compatibility between industries in shaping worker mobility, and present significant implications for the design of labor adjustment programs in the process of sectoral transformation. [TR] Bu calisma, Turkiye’de sektorler arasi isgucu hareketliligi dinamiklerini yapisal bir cekim modeli cercevesinde incelemektedir. Calisma isgucu gecislerinin iki temel boyutu uzerinde odaklanmaktadir: sektorler arasi beceri gereksinimi farkliliklarini olcen "Gorev Mesafesi" ve sektorler arasi girdi-cikti iliskilerinin yogunlugunu yansitan "Ticaret Endeksi". Sosyal Guvenlik Kurumunun isveren–calisan eslestirilmis idari verileri ile Gelir Idaresi Baskanliginin firma duzeyindeki ticaret verilerini kullanarak, 2014–2023 doneminde sektor ciftleri arasindaki isgucu akislari analiz edilmektedir. Sonuclarimiz, en benzer gorev yapilarina sahip olmasi ve daha guclu ticari baglantilara sahip sektorler arasinda isgucu gecislerinin meydana gelme olasiliginin daha yuksek oldugunu gostermektedir. Buna karsilik, kazanc seviyeleri ya da is yaratma ve yok etme oranlari gibi sektore ozgu performans gostergelerinin aciklayici gucu sinirlidir. Yalnizca hedef sektorlerde is yaratma ve kaynak sektorlerdeki is yok etme anlamli etkiler gostermektedir. Bu bulgular, sektorler arasi isgucu hareketliligini sekillendirmede yapisal uyumun oneminin altini cizmekte ve sektorel donusum surecinde isgucu uyum programlarinin tasarimi acisindan onemli cikarimlar sunmaktadir. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2603 |
| By: | Abdullah AlHassan (International Monetary Fund); Luc Leruth (University of Clermont Ferrand); Adnan Mazarei (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Charles Meuwly (ZENO-Indices); Joseph Moussa (International Monetary Fund); Pierre Regibeau (Warsaw School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Key Takeaways - A small group of large firms dominates the global petrochemical industry, with ownership heavily concentrated among corporations and geographically in China, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. - Ownership does not equal control. Chinese and other Asian investors exert significant control, while US investors exercise limited control due to reliance on passive investments. Saudi Arabia has full control over its investments. - Europe has weak control and limited presence in the petrochemical industry, with very few major companies, leaving it more dependent on external suppliers. Petrochemicals--used in everything from fertilizers, solar panels, clothing, and cosmetics to electric vehicles, electronics, and medicines--are integral to food security, manufacturing, and clean energy. They are also becoming the fastest-growing source of demand for oil. The 2026 conflict in the Middle East has exposed vulnerabilities in petrochemical supply chains, especially since Middle Eastern producers account for much of the global supply of key petrochemical products, including fertilizers, and one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade transits the Strait of Hormuz. Understanding the petrochemical industry, including its size, geographical distribution, and ownership and control structure, is essential to reduce risks from geopolitical shocks, hostile takeovers, and fragile supply chains. |
| JEL: | G3 L1 L7 Q3 Q5 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp26-4 |
| By: | Ahmet Gulek |
| Abstract: | I study how local immigration shocks impact labor markets and firms across the economy through production networks. Using Turkey's Syrian refugee crisis and firm-level trade network data, I show that firms buying from host regions demand more labor, while those selling to host regions increase sales. These spillovers depend critically on network centrality: a 1% labor supply increase in Istanbul decreases local real wages by 0.56% while increasing non-host wages by 0.38%. For non-central regions, identical shocks reduce local wages by 1% with negligible spillovers. Network position thus determines whether immigration only lowers local wages or also generates economy-wide gains. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, trade, production network |
| JEL: | F16 F22 J15 J23 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25109 |
| By: | Grakolet Gourene; Jiri Balcar; Lenka J. Filipova; Zuzana B. Schwidrowski |
| JEL: | D22 G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2024–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:ersawp:896 |
| By: | Mirjalili, Seyed hossein; Keshtgar, Nafiseh; Abdurahimian, Mohammad Hossein; Fakhar poor, saeed |
| Abstract: | This study aims to identify the macroeconomic factors influencing the likelihood of a banking crisis in Iran, with a particular focus on macroprudential policy. We employed a discrete econometric model (Logit/Probit) using data from 2011 to 2023. The independent variables include the loan-to-deposit ratio (LTD) as a proxy for macroprudential policy, the interbank interest rate as a proxy for monetary policy, as well as the inflation rate and exchange rate volatility as indicators of macroeconomic instability. The positive and significant coefficient of LTD confirms that liquidity risk arising from excessive credit expansion is the main domestic factor increasing the probability of a crisis. The strong and positive coefficients for inflation and exchange rate volatility suggest that macroeconomic and currency shocks threaten financial stability by deteriorating asset quality and increasing loan defaults. The coefficient for the interbank rate implies the dominance of the disciplinary and supervisory effects of monetary policy over liquidity risk, meaning that a targeted increase in the policy rate by the central bank effectively reduces the probability of a crisis by imposing higher costs on riskier banks. Overall, the findings indicate that financial stability in Iran is influenced by short-term liquidity management and macroeconomic shocks, and that macroprudential policy plays an effective role in curbing risk-taking behavior. |
| Keywords: | Banking crisis; macroprudential policy; Loan to Deposit ratio; Exchange Rate Volatility; Systemic risk. |
| JEL: | G28 |
| Date: | 2025–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128879 |
| By: | Oyvat, Cem; Elgin, Ceyhun; Elveren, Adem Yavuz |
| Abstract: | Minimum wage policies are a central instrument for reducing poverty, improving income distribution, and enhancing social protection. Yet their broader macroeconomic impacts remain contested, particularly in developing economies with persistent high inflation. Drawing on a Post-Keynesian framework, this paper examines the impact of minimum wage increases on inflation, unemployment rate, demand, and the trade balance in Türkiye, a country characterized by persistent high inflation and where approximately three-quarters of the workforce earns between 50% and 150% of the minimum wage. Using monthly data from 2005 to 2024 and Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) models, we analyze the relationships between minimum wage adjustments, consumer prices, unemployment, capacity utilization, and trade balance. We employ two distinct inflation measures: the Consumer Price Index from TurkStat and the Cost of Living Index from the İstanbul Chamber of Commerce. Our findings indicate that a 10% increase in the minimum wage raises annual inflation by 1.0-2.0 percentage points. This inflationary effect is primarily driven by the cost channel, as opposed to the demand channel. Exchange rate movements emerge as a more powerful inflation driver than wage adjustments in Türkiye's context. The analysis finds no significant evidence that minimum wage increases influence demand-side factors such as capacity utilization, industrial growth, or retail sales. Contrary to traditional predictions, the impact on unemployment is minimal —0.10 to 0.15 percentage points. Moreover, a 10% rise in the minimum wage generates an extra trade deficit amounting to 0.11–0.27% of annual GDP. These results suggest that while minimum wage policy remains a viable tool for improving low-wage workers' welfare, given its moderate inflationary effect and minimal impact on employment, policymakers should consider complementary measures to enhance productivity and non-price competitiveness to mitigate mild negative external balance effects. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage; inflation; unemployment; trade balance; Post-Keynesian economics; Türkiye |
| Date: | 2025–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gpe:wpaper:51078 |
| By: | Ugur Aytun (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey); Eren Gurer (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey); Erol Taymaz (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | In December 2017, the government of T¨ urkiye announced a comprehensive ban on the procurement of outsourced services by public institutions and mandated that all workers providing such services on-site be transitioned into permanent public positions within six months. We study the labor-market consequences of this abrupt and large-scale policy change using an administrative, linked employer–employee dataset. We find that workers who transitioned into public employment experienced higher wages and improved job security. At the firm level, private service providers with greater exposure to the reform faced higher exit rates and, if they survived, declines in employment, productivity, and profitability. In contrast, municipal-owned enterprises that internalized service provision became more productive and profitable. We also document modest positive wage spillovers in local labor markets. Overall, our results suggest that the outsourcing ban reallocated rents away from private service providers toward workers and public employers. |
| Keywords: | public employment, outsourcing reform, labor market spillovers, firm dynamics, productivity |
| JEL: | J31 J38 J62 L33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:2602 |