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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Shehab, Elmekdad |
| Abstract: | Between February and April 2026, a joint American-Israeli air campaign against Iran drew retaliatory strikes across the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Global commentary settled quickly into a familiar frame, asking what the disruption meant for oil prices, shipping routes, and world supply chains. The question of what it meant for the Gulf itself, for its sixty million people and the trajectory of its development model, received far less attention. This monograph asks what the war revealed about the structure of the Gulf economy and where vulnerability proved greatest. It applies the Vulnerability Assessment Framework, a three-dimensional analytical tool rooted in the IPCC tradition and extended to economic systems by Briguglio et al. (2009) and Guillaumont (2010), to three foundational sectors: energy, food, and water. Across each, the framework decomposes vulnerability into exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Two patterns emerge, one sectoral and one systemic. At the sectoral level, exposure is uniformly high across all three sectors. Sensitivity varies with the time each sector grants for a response, lowest in energy and highest in water. Adaptive capacity moves in the opposite direction: strongest where urgency is least, weakest where it is greatest. At the systemic level, the analysis argues that Gulf diversification ambitions are geographically constrained. Despite two decades of effort, the economic tracks built to move beyond hydrocarbons, namely finance, tourism, aviation, and digital infrastructure, rest on the same foundational geography as the hydrocarbon model itself. What the war revealed is the need for a reframing of the challenge ahead away from the familiar question of how to move beyond oil and gas, and toward a harder one. How does a state build what this study terms a geographically hedged economy, one whose resilience does not depend on the stability of the very geography it cannot leave? |
| Keywords: | Gulf economies, economic vulnerability, GCC, Strait of Hormuz, energy security, food security, water security, Iran, vulnerability assessment framework, economic diversification |
| JEL: | F51 H12 O13 Q34 |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129257 |
| By: | kilani, bochra hadj |
| Abstract: | Tunisia, a semi-arid Mediterranean country, faces increasing climate-related pressures linked to water scarcity, agricultural instability, rapid urbanization, and limited environmental adaptation. Despite growing concern over climate vulnerability in North Africa, integrated long-term assessments of the relationship between environmental stress and sustainable development remain limited. This study analyzes multi-decadal trends from 1960 to 2025 using 15 standardized indicators from World Bank Open Data covering water resources, agriculture, energy transition, urbanization, coastal exposure, and environmental protection. The analysis combines descriptive trend evaluation with OLS regression, Mann–Kendall tests, and Sen’s slope estimation to identify major structural changes across sectors. The results reveal four major trends. First, freshwater withdrawals increased dramatically, reaching over 90% of internal renewable resources by 2022, placing Tunisia among the world’s most water-stressed countries. Second, agricultural systems remain highly vulnerable, characterized by declining arable land and strong cereal-yield volatility linked to rainfall variability. Third, rapid urbanization has concentrated population and infrastructure in low-elevation coastal zones exposed to sea-level rise and storm surges. Fourth, adaptation efforts remain insufficient, with limited renewable-electricity deployment and protected-area coverage remaining below international targets. The findings highlight a growing “climate–development nexus” in which resource depletion, environmental vulnerability, and slow adaptation interact through reinforcing pressures. The study identifies urgent priorities for integrated water governance, renewable-energy expansion, coastal-risk management, and ecosystem protection, directly supporting SDGs 6, 11, 13, and 15. More broadly, the Tunisian case provides an instructive framework for understanding climate-development challenges across semi-arid Mediterranean and MENA countries. |
| Date: | 2026–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:a6g2u_v1 |
| By: | Fakih, Ali (Lebanese American University); Kassab, Sara (Concordia University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the gender pay gap among youth aged 15–29 in Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine using the 2021 Labor Force Surveys. The analysis identifies the main determinants of wages for young men and women and estimates the extent of gender-based wage disparities. The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is used to distinguish the share of the wage gap explained by observable characteristics from the unexplained component, often associated with discrimination. Melly’s quantile decomposition is applied from the 10th to the 90th percentile. The findings show that youth wages are positively associated with higher education and professional experience. A significant gender pay gap favoring young men is found in Egypt and Palestine, with Egypt showing the largest disparity. In Jordan, the average gap is small and statistically insignificant, with young women slightly out-earning young men. However, the decomposition results reveal a significant positive unexplained component across all three countries, suggesting persistent disparities after accounting for observable factors. The quantile analysis further shows a “sticky floor†effect in Egypt and a “glass ceiling†effect in Palestine. |
| Keywords: | gender pay gap, youth employment, Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, wage quantile analysis |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J71 C21 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18649 |
| By: | El Achkar, Jean H. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138821 |
| By: | Ouakil, Hicham; Liouaeddine, Mariem; Hosni, Mohamed; Saadi, Ayoub |
| Abstract: | The allocation and effectiveness of public subsidies for R&D and innovation are crucial issues for firms and policymakers. This study has two main objectives: first, to identify the determinants of access to public funding for R&D and innovation within firms; second, to quantitatively assess the causal impact of this support on firms’ R&D and innovation activities. We used data from the 2019 World Bank survey of 1, 096 Moroccan firms (www. enterprise surveys and applied two econometric approaches. For the first objective, we resorted to logistic regression based on a probit model. The results show that competitive firms, those investing in ICT, and those that employ graduates are more likely to receive public financial support. For the second objective, we used Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to control for selection bias and endogeneity. The results show that government financial support significantly favors the innovation inputs and outputs of Moroccan firms. |
| Keywords: | Public Support, Firm R&D and Innovation, Impact Assessment, Probit Model, Propensity Score Matching (PSM). |
| JEL: | D2 D22 O3 |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128707 |
| By: | Houcine Bouhajeb (USO - جامعة سوسة = Université de Sousse = University of Sousse); Abderraouf Ben Ahmed Mtiraoui (MOFID-Université de Sousse, USO - جامعة سوسة = Université de Sousse = University of Sousse); Samira Chaabene (USO - جامعة سوسة = Université de Sousse = University of Sousse) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the empirical interactions between inequality, economic growth, and poverty in MENA countries using data from 2011-2024. A simultaneous equations model is developed to capture the endogenous relationship between growth and poverty.Reducing poverty remains a central priority for human development, as highlighted by the UNDP (1996), with 21% of people below the income poverty line and 37% experiencing human-capacity deprivation. Short-term growth without human development is unsustainable, and vice versa (Richard Jolly, UNDP). This research first clarifies theoretically the links between inequality, growth, and poverty. It then empirically investigates the growth-inequality-poverty triangle. The findings provide evidence-based insights to inform policies aimed at sustainable poverty reduction. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude examine les interactions empiriques entre inégalités, croissance économique et pauvreté dans les pays de la région MENA à partir de données de 2011 à 2024. Un modèle d'équations simultanées est développé pour saisir la relation endogène entre croissance et pauvreté. La réduction de la pauvreté demeure une priorité essentielle pour le développement humain, comme le souligne le PNUD (1996), avec 21 % de la population vivant en dessous du seuil de pauvreté et 37 % souffrant de privation de potentiel humain. Une croissance à court terme sans développement humain est non durable, et inversement (Richard Jolly, PNUD). Cette recherche clarifie d'abord, sur le plan théorique, les liens entre inégalités, croissance et pauvreté. Elle étudie ensuite, sur le plan empirique, le triangle croissance-inégalité-pauvreté. Les résultats fournissent des données probantes permettant d'éclairer les politiques visant une réduction durable de la pauvreté. |
| Keywords: | Poverty Inequality Growth MENA Countries Simultaneous Equations Model. Classification JEL: I32 O40 C33 D63, Poverty, Inequality, Growth, MENA Countries |
| Date: | 2026–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05607310 |
| By: | Fatima, Freeha (World Bank); Ozen, Efsan (World Bank); Raju, Dhushyanth (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether eligibility for a large-scale humanitarian cash transfer program affects employment outcomes among displaced populations. Exploiting deterministic demographic thresholds governing eligibility for the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) in Türkiye, a nationwide unconditional cash transfer program established primarily to support Syrian refugees, we implement a local-randomization regression discontinuity design to estimate causal effects at the program’s administrative eligibility frontier. We find no statistically significant discontinuities in employment probabilities for either women or men across multiple employment outcomes, including overall employment, wage employment, full-time employment, and nonfarm employment. Estimated effects are small, economically modest, and stable across specifications. Overall, the findings provide little evidence that sustained unconditional cash transfers under the ESSN generated economically meaningful labor supply disincentives at the eligibility margin. |
| Keywords: | unconditional cash transfers, refugees, labor supply, social assistance, regression discontinuity, rule-based eligibility |
| JEL: | C21 F22 H53 I38 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18670 |
| By: | Pinok, MD Nayeem Aktar |
| Abstract: | This review paper explores the intersection of traditional Islamic governance principles and modern diplomatic practices within Contemporary Muslim-majority nations, specifically focusing on select members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperatio (OIC) such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia , and Malaysia.In an increasingly globalized world , these nations are unique in their attempts, to synthesize classical Islamic concepts of statecraft -such as Shura( Consulation), Adalah(justice)and. Amanah(trust) with contemporary international relations frameworks.The study utilizes a comparative qualitative methodology to examine how these countries employ soft power economic diplomacy, and international mediation to advance their foreign policy objectives while maintaining their Islamic identity Special attention is given to Qatar's role as a global mediator Saudi Arabia's diplomatic leadership within the Arab-Islamic world, and Malaysia''s progressive approaches to Islamic economy and diplomacy.The preliminary findings suggest that Islamic governance principles do not contradict modern diplomacy;rather , they provide a engagement, dispute resolution and international cooperation .This. paper contributes to the broader academic discourse on non-western international relations theories and offers valuable insights for policy makers and researchers interested in Middle Eastern Politics , Islamic Political Systems , and Global diplomacy. |
| Keywords: | Islamic Governance. , Modern Diplomacy, OIC Foreign Policy., Middle Eastern Politics, Soft Power , Comparative Politics. |
| JEL: | Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–05–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129167 |
| By: | Ben Soltane, Bassem |
| Abstract: | This study examines the dynamic interrelationship between transport infrastructure, foreign direct investment (FDI), and economic growth in Tunisia over the period 1996–2022. Motivated by the hypothesis that transport infrastructure stimulates FDI, which in turn enhances GDP per capita, the analysis adopts a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework to capture the bidirectional linkages among the three variables. The study relies on annual time-series data drawn from the World Bank Open Data platform and the International Road Statistics (IRS). The results confirm that transport infrastructure positively influences FDI inflows, and that FDI subsequently contributes to economic growth, revealing a reinforcing cycle wherein improved infrastructure attracts investment, which then drives development. Granger causality tests support these directional links, while impulse response functions and variance decomposition illustrate the transmission mechanisms and evolving contribution of each variable to economic performance. These findings underscore the strategic importance of transport infrastructure in Tunisia’s development model and highlight the need for spatially inclusive investment, macroeconomic stability, and institutional efficiency. The study also addresses practical challenges, such as fiscal constraints and political uncertainty, and calls for future research focused on infrastructure typologies, private sector participation, and economic resilience in the face of global disruptions. |
| Keywords: | Transport infrastructure, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Economic growth, Vector Autoregression (VAR), Tunisia. |
| JEL: | C32 F21 F43 O11 O55 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127901 |
| By: | Mohamed Bazi (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)); Ziyad Chahboun (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the resilience of the MASI.ESG index, which integrates environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria, compared to the conventional MASI index of the Casablanca Stock Exchange, over the period March 2022–March 2025. This period, marked by the geopolitical shock following the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and subsequent macroeconomic turbulence, provides a privileged framework for testing the hypothesis of a protective role for ESG integration. Three resilience indicators are used: Value at Risk (VaR) adjusted by the Cornish-Fisher correction, the Sharpe ratio, and the Maximum Drawdown. Conditional volatility modeling relies on the EGARCH and TGARCH specifications, adapted to capture asymmetry in the response to shocks. The empirical results reveal significantly lower volatility for the MASI.ESG, a lower VaR reflecting more limited exposure to extreme risk, and a slightly less unfavorable Sharpe ratio. The post-shock recovery period is also shorter for the MASI.ESG (416 days versus 458).Overall, the results suggest that integrating ESG criteria can contribute to financial resilience and relative market stability during periods of turbulence. The article delves deeper into the transmission channels of this resilience, examining the role of idiosyncratic risk reduction, sector composition, and governance quality. The limitations related to ESG rating divergence between agencies and the risk of greenwashing are discussed. Recommendations are formulated for institutional investors and regulators, placing them within the context of international regulatory developments, particularly the European CSRD directive |
| Abstract: | Cet article examine la résilience de l'indice MASI.ESG, indice intégrant les critères environnementaux, sociaux et de gouvernance (ESG), en comparaison avec l'indice conventionnel MASI de la Bourse des valeurs de Casablanca, sur la période mars 2022 –mars 2025. Cette période, marquée par le choc géopolitique consécutif au conflit russo-ukrainien et par les turbulences macroéconomiques subséquentes, offre un cadre d'observation privilégié pour tester l'hypothèse d'un rôle protecteur de l'intégration ESG. Trois indicateurs de résilience sont mobilisés : la Value at Risk (VaR) ajustée par la correction de Cornish-Fisher, le ratio de Sharpe et le Maximum Drawdown. La modélisation de la volatilité conditionnelle repose sur les spécifications EGARCH et TGARCH, adaptées à la capture de l'asymétrie dans la réponse aux chocs. Les résultats empiriques révèlent une volatilité significativement plus faible pour le MASI.ESG, une VaR inférieure traduisant une exposition au risque extrême plus limitée, ainsi qu'un ratio de Sharpe légèrement moins défavorable. La durée de récupération post-choc est également plus courte pour le MASI.ESG (416 jours contre 458). Dans l'ensemble, les résultats suggèrent que l'intégration des critères ESG peut constituer un facteur de résilience financière et de stabilité relative des marchés boursiers face aux périodes de turbulence. L'article approfondit l'analyse des canaux de transmission de cette résilience, en interrogeant le rôle de la réduction du risque idiosyncratique, de la composition sectorielle et de la qualité de la gouvernance. Les limites liées à la divergence des notations ESG entre agences et au risque de greenwashing sont discutées. Des recommandations sont formulées à l'intention des investisseurs institutionnels et des régulateurs, en les situant dans le contexte des évolutions réglementaires internationales, notamment la directive CSRD européenne |
| Keywords: | TGARCH, Value at Risk, African Scientific Journal, EGARCH, Financial resilience, ESG index, Indices ESG, Résilience financière |
| Date: | 2026–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05631234 |
| By: | de Wit, Pieter; Wickert, Christopher; Gümüsay, Ali |
| Abstract: | Despite persisting ethnonational conflict in Israel and Palestine, professionals in the information technology (IT) sector keep working together. They engage in professional cooperation by jointly developing software while embedded in societal narratives that cast the other as the enemy. We ask how individuals give meaning to their work when cooperating with their societal adversaries in such a context. Drawing on a qualitative case study that combines interviews, observations, and documents, we find that individuals use two main tactics to cope with the conflict context: depoliticizing and politicizing cooperation. We specify these individual-level tactics and show when they are used: depoliticizing in situations “at work” and politicizing in situations “about work.” We also show that these tactics are at times misplaced and hinder cooperation. Additionally, we find that physical and social interference can disrupt cooperation and thus set guardrails for it. Abstracting from our findings, we theorize a model that explains how individuals engage in what we term conflict-situated cooperation. We offer two main contributions to management research: We introduce the concept of conflict-situated cooperation to capture the distinct nature of professional cooperation in the context of ethnonational conflict, and we explain how individuals use and situate (de)politicizing coping tactics to give meaning to their professional cooperation. |
| Keywords: | qualitative research; case study; cooperation; ethnonational conflict; coping |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2026–05–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138024 |
| By: | Ecker, Olivier; Guo, Zhe; Li, Hanxi; Di, Liping |
| Abstract: | An innovative remote sensing study piloted in two sites (Mukalla and Qusayir) in Hadramawt Governorate, Yemen, reveals the following key findings: Deep learning using very high resolution satellite imagery can accurately detect small artisanal fishing boats. The YOLO11 Oriented Bounding Boxes model performs best, with an overall accuracy of 96.9 percent, and enables measuring boat size and identifying boat types. Mukalla’s fleet numbered around 800 operational boats in 2021–2024, most of which were houris, while sanbuqs accounted for 6.9 percent. Qusayir’s fleet numbered 450 boats, all of which were houris. The composition of the combined Mukalla and Qusayir fleets by boat type and length class is similar to the composition of Hadramawt’s entire fleet, as shown by a recent landing site survey. Approximated fish-catch capacities of the Mukalla and Qusayir fleets indicate that current boat sizes are not a notable constraint to increasing the productivity of these artisanal fisheries. The proposed remote sensing approach is an important first step toward development of a cost-effective tool for monitoring and analyzing artisanal fishing activities in Southern Yemen and beyond. |
| Keywords: | fisheries; artisanal fisheries; remote sensing; modelling; cost analysis; measurement; Yemen; Middle East; Asia |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:182787 |