nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2024‒04‒15
ten papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi, Université d’Ottawa

  1. Hometown Conflict and Refugees' Integration Efforts By Aksoy, Cevat Giray; Khanna, Gaurav; Marino, Victoria; Tumen, Semih
  2. Impact of women's employment rate on informal care for dependent elders: prospects for Moroccan society By Sébastien Dambrine
  3. Anticipating Credit Developments with Regularization and Shrinkage Methods: Evidence for Turkish Banking Industry By Salih Zeki Atilgan; Tarik Aydogdu; Mehmet Selman Colak; Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz
  4. Violence and Cooperation in Geopolitical Conflicts: Evidence from the Second Intifada By Aamer Abu-Qarn; Muhammad Asali; Michael Beenstock
  5. Prevalence of Depression and Associated Socio-economic Outcomes during Violent Conflict: A Matched Analysis for Palestine Using Nationally Representative Survey and Conflict Event Data By Piero Ronzani; Wolfgang Stojetz; Nadine Stammel; Maria Boettche; Diego Zardetto; Sarah Fenzl; Maen Salhab; Jessica M. Anderson; Arden Finn; Alia Aghajanian; Tilman Brück
  6. Investigating Changes of Water Quality in Reservoirs based on Flood and Inflow Fluctuations By Shabnam Salehi; Mojtaba Ardestani
  7. Profit Margins and Cost Pass-Through in Türkiye By H. Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer; Cagri Sarikaya
  8. Learning along the Digital Silk Road? Technology transfer, power, and Chinese ICT corporations in North Africa By El Kadi, Tin
  9. The Turkic Factor in the Context Of Ankara’s Policy Toward Turkic-Speaking Regions of Russia By Արեստակես Սիմավորյան
  10. Machtbeziehungen in Sudan nach dem Fall Bashirs: Von der Revolution zum Krieg By Kurtz, Gerrit

  1. By: Aksoy, Cevat Giray (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); Khanna, Gaurav (University of California, San Diego); Marino, Victoria (EBRD, London); Tumen, Semih (Amazon)
    Abstract: How does violence in origin areas affect the educational outcomes of refugees in their destinations? Using administrative panel data, we find that heightened violence in the hometowns of Syrian students leads to improvements in their school outcomes in Türkiye. Turkish language and Math scores of refugee students improve, with larger impacts on Turkish scores. There is no impact on naturalized Syrian students. We observe positive spillovers on Turkish students. These findings suggest ongoing violence in refugee-origin areas reduces the prospect of returning home, and induces students to increase their integration effort by investing in education.
    Keywords: conflict, forced migration, integration effort, return migration
    JEL: J15 I21 I25 F51 O15
    Date: 2024–03
  2. By: Sébastien Dambrine (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord)
    Abstract: The presented study examines the significant impact of the rise in women's employment rates on the provision of informal care to dependent seniors, with a particular focus on the French context and extrapolating potential implications for Moroccan society. The central research question revolves around the effect of the increase in female participation in the labor market on the availability and quality of informal care provided to the elderly who require sustained care. This inquiry is motivated by the growing recognition of the vital role informal care plays in maintaining dependent seniors at home, a practice deeply rooted in both French and Moroccan social values. To address this issue, the study relies on a mixed methodology, combining the analysis of quantitative data from the Daily Life and Health (VQS) surveys and the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) with a qualitative approach to deepen the understanding of interpersonal and family dynamics influencing care provision. The econometric methodology used allows isolating the effect of female employment on informal care. The study's findings reveal a negative correlation between the increase in women's employment rates and the availability of informal care for seniors. Specifically, it appears that the growing integration of women into the workforce leads to a reduction in the time and resources available for informal care, highlighting a growing challenge for the sustainability of care systems for dependent elderly individuals. This trend is particularly concerning in the context of rapid demographic aging and the increase in the prevalence of chronic diseases among the elderly population. The conclusion of the study emphasizes the urgency for policymakers, both in France and Morocco, to recognize and address the consequences of these labor market dynamics on the informal care system. It suggests that the development of innovative and gender-sensitive public policies, which facilitate the balance between professional responsibilities and caring for loved ones, will be crucial to ensure the continuity and quality of support provided to dependent seniors.
    Abstract: L'étude présentée examine l'impact significatif de l'augmentation du taux d'emploi des femmes sur la provision d'aide informelle aux séniors dépendants, en mettant un accent particulier sur le contexte français et en extrapolant les implications potentielles pour la société marocaine. La question de recherche centrale s'articule autour de l'effet de la croissance de la participation féminine au marché du travail sur la disponibilité et la qualité de l'aide informelle offerte aux personnes âgées nécessitant des soins soutenus. Cette interrogation est motivée par la reconnaissance croissante du rôle vital que joue l'aide informelle dans le maintien des séniors dépendants à domicile, une pratique profondément enracinée tant dans les valeurs sociales françaises que marocaines. Pour aborder cette question, l'étude s'appuie sur une méthodologie mixte, combinant l'analyse de données quantitatives issues des enquêtes Vie Quotidienne et Santé (VQS) et Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) avec une approche qualitative pour approfondir les dynamiques interpersonnelles et familiales influençant la prestation de soins. La méthodologie économétrique employée permet d'isoler l'effet de l'emploi féminin sur l'aide informelle. Les résultats de l'étude révèlent une corrélation négative entre l'augmentation du taux d'emploi des femmes et la disponibilité de l'aide informelle aux séniors. Plus précisément, il apparaît que l'intégration croissante des femmes dans la force de travail conduit à une réduction du temps et des ressources disponibles pour les soins informels, mettant en lumière un défi croissant pour la soutenabilité des systèmes de soins aux personnes âgées dépendantes. Cette tendance est particulièrement préoccupante dans le contexte du vieillissement démographique rapide et de l'augmentation de la prévalence des maladies chroniques parmi les populations âgées. La conclusion de l'étude souligne l'urgence pour les décideurs politiques, tant en France qu'au Maroc, de reconnaître et d'adresser les conséquences de ces dynamiques du marché du travail sur le système de soins informels. Il est suggéré que le développement de politiques publiques innovantes et sensibles au genre, qui facilitent l'équilibre entre les responsabilités professionnelles et de soins aux proches, sera crucial pour assurer la continuité et la qualité de l'aide apportée aux séniors dépendants.
    Keywords: Home assistance, Female employment, Informal aid, Silver Economy, Aide à domicile, Emploi féminin, aide informelle, Silver économie
    Date: 2024
  3. By: Salih Zeki Atilgan; Tarik Aydogdu; Mehmet Selman Colak; Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz
    Abstract: In this paper, we propose the use of regularization and shrinkage methods to address the variable selection problem in predicting credit growth. Using data from the 10 largest Turkish banks and a broader set of macro-financial predictors for the period 2012-2023, we find that the models generated by the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method have superior predictive power (lower level of forecast errors) for bank-level total credit growth compared to alternative factor-augmented models through recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercises. Our baseline findings remain intact against alternative choices of the tuning parameter and LASSO specifications. In addition to the dynamics of the total credit growth, the improvement in prediction accuracy is evident for commercial credit growth at all horizons, while the effect is limited to short-term horizons for consumer credit growth. Furthermore, additional robustness checks show that the baseline results do not vary considerably against different sample coverage and benchmark models. In the subsequent analyses, we utilize the LASSO method to synthesize the “residual credit” indicator as a proxy for excessive credit movements deviating from the level implied by macro-financial dynamics. In the scope of a case study, using this indicator as an input for local projection estimates, we show that recent inflationary pressures have resulted in excessive lending activity, which is not fully explained by macro-financial dynamics, in the period 2020-2023.
    Keywords: Credit growth, Forecasting, LASSO, Residual credit, Local projection
    JEL: G21 C53 C55
    Date: 2024
  4. By: Aamer Abu-Qarn (BGU); Muhammad Asali (College of Management Academic Studies, Rishon LeTsiyon, Israel; School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University; IZA, Bonn); Michael Beenstock (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
    Keywords: Cooperation, conflict cycle, Israeli Palestinian conflict, causality
    JEL: D74 H56
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Piero Ronzani (ISDC – International Security and Development Center, Berlin, Germany); Wolfgang Stojetz (ISDC – International Security and Development Center, Berlin, Germany); Nadine Stammel (Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany); Maria Boettche (Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany); Diego Zardetto (World Bank, Washington DC, USA); Sarah Fenzl (ISDC – International Security and Development Center, Berlin, Germany); Maen Salhab (Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, Ramallah); Jessica M. Anderson (World Bank, Washington DC, USA); Arden Finn (World Bank, Washington DC, USA); Alia Aghajanian (World Bank, Washington DC, USA); Tilman Brück (ISDC – International Security and Development Center, Berlin, Germany, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany, Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops, Großbeeren, Germany)
    Abstract: Mental health risks are high in conflict settings, but mental health research mostly focuses on non-conflict settings. Survey data from active conflict settings often suffer from low response rates, unrepresentative samples, and a lack of detailed information on the roots and implications of poor mental health. We overcome these challenges by analyzing nationally representative evidence on the prevalence, sources, and socio-economic correlates of depression, a highly disabling and costly public health issue, in an active conflict setting. We analyze nationally and sub-nationally representative geocoded survey data from the Palestinians’ Psychological Conditions Survey, collected from 5, 877 Palestinian individuals in West Bank and Gaza in 2022. We calculate representative depression statistics, disaggregate by sub-areas and across socio-demographic groups, and estimate the associations with geocoded violent conflict event data as well as survey-based trauma exposure across conflict types and socio-economic outcomes. 58 percent (SE=2·21) of adults in Palestine exhibit depressive symptoms. Prevalence is highest in Gaza (71 percent, SE=2·70), increases with exposure to violent conflict and traumatic events, and is associated with worse socio-economic outcomes. The associated losses for 2022 are equivalent to 732, 555 Years Lost in Disability, representing 8·9 percent of Palestine’s GDP. Those exposed to violence and traumatic events are disproportionately affected by depression in conflict settings, which may fuel poverty and instability. Scalable investments in mental health in conflict settings promise to not only support well-being but also strengthen productivity and social cohesion for a given level of violence.
    Keywords: Depression, Conflict, Trauma, Mental health, Disability-adjusted life years, Socio-economic outcomes, Palestine, Burden of disease
    JEL: I12 I14 I15 I31 J14 J17 O10
    Date: 2024–03
  6. By: Shabnam Salehi; Mojtaba Ardestani
    Abstract: Water temperature and dissolved oxygen are essential indicators of water quality and ecosystem sustainability. Lately, heavy rainfalls are happening frequently and forcefully affecting the thermal structure and mixing layers in depth by sharply increasing the volume of inflow entitled flash flood. It can occur by sudden intense precipitation and develop within minutes or hours. Because of heavy debris load and speedy water, this phenomenon has remarkable effects on water quality. A higher flow during floods may worsens water quality at lakes and reservoirs that are thermally stratified (with separate density layers) and decrease dissolved oxygen content. However, it is unclear how well these parameters represent the response of lakes to changes in volume discharge. To address this question, researchers simulate the thermal structure in two stratified reservoirs, considering the Rajae reservoir as a representative reservoir in the north of Iran and Minab reservoir in the south. In this study, the model realistically represented variations of dissolved oxygen and temperature of dams Lake response to flash floods. The model performance was evaluated using observed data from stations on the dams lake. In this case, the inflow charge considered in a 10-day flash flood from April 6th to April 16th during the yearly normal flow. The complete mixture in a part of the thermal structure has been proved in Rajaee reservoir. The nonpermanent impact of the massive inflow of storm runoff caused an increase in oxygen-consuming, leading to a severe decrease in dissolved oxygen on epilimnion and metalimnion. The situation in Minab reservoir was relatively different from Rajae reservoir. The inflow changes not only cause mixture but also help expanding stratification.
    Date: 2024–03
  7. By: H. Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer; Cagri Sarikaya
    Abstract: This paper investigates the link between profit margins and cost pass-through to producer prices for the manufacturing sector in Türkiye. Using sector-level panel data, we show that pass-through is lower in industries with higher profit margins in line with the theory that predicts that stronger competition leads to greater pass-through. The impact of cost shocks is found to be more muted for export-oriented industries. In contrast, it is stronger for industries with higher import intensity and foreign currency leverage. We also test the significance of market concentration measures in explaining cost pass-through as alternative indicators of market power. While the dispersion of profit rates is found to be an important source of the differentiation in cost pass-through across sectors, market concentration measures do not have significant impact.
    Keywords: Producer prices, Cost pass-through, Profit margins, Market power, Market concentration
    JEL: C23 D40 E31
    Date: 2024
  8. By: El Kadi, Tin
    Abstract: While much attention has been paid to how China’s rise as a digital superpower could threaten US hegemony over cyberspace, much less has been written on what the Digital Silk Road, or the presence of Chinese tech firms in developing countries more broadly, means for technological upgrading and development. This article contributes to filling this gap by investigating the technology spillovers emanating from two Chinese tech giants – Huawei and ZTE – in Algeria and Egypt. Using a political economy framework that combines insights from structuralist economic development and techno-politics and drawing on over 70 semi-structured interviews and field-observations, it argues that despite localizing activities that bear the promise of generating significant linkages, the two Chinese tech firms created no meaningful learning opportunities for domestic entities that contribute to technological upgrading. What could at first seem like developmental connections that promote technology transfers are found to be linkages diffusing Chinese infrastructures, hardware, software, processes, and standards that shape distinct digital systems. Without pro-active policies from host governments, the Digital Silk Road risks creating new technological dependencies; locking local ICT actors into activities and relationships captured and defined by Chinese tech giants.
    Keywords: Algeria; Chinese ICT firms; digital transition; Egypt; linkages; technology transfer; techno-politics; Faculty of Humanities; T&F deal
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2024–02–29
  9. By: Արեստակես Սիմավորյան (Noravank Foundation - Noravank Scientific Educational Foundation)
    Abstract: After the collapse of the USSR, Turkey not only established ties with the Turkic-speaking republics of the former Soviet Union, but also developed relations with the Turkic-speaking regions of the Russian Federation at various levels. In the article, we will look at what policies Ankara has been implementing in recent years with federal states that have predominantly Turkic-speaking population such as Boshkortostan (Bashkiria), Tatarstan, Chuvashia, Yakutia, Khakassia, and Tuva.
    Abstract: ԽՍՀՄ փլուզումից հետո Թուրքիան ոչ միայն կապեր հաստատեց նախկին խորհրդային թյուրքախոս հանրապետությունների հետ, այլև տարբեր մակարդակներում զարգացրեց հարաբերությունները ՌԴ-ի թյուրքախոս շրջանների հետ։ Հոդվածում կանդրադառնանք, թե վերջին տարիներին Անկարան ինչպիսի քաղաքականություն է իրականացնում գլխավորապես թյուրքալեզու բնակչություն ունեցող դաշնային այնպիսի սուբյեկտների հետ, ինչպիսիք են՝ Բաշկորտոստանը (Բաշկիրիա), Թաթարստանը, Չուվաշիան, Յակուտիան, Խակասիան, Տուվան։
    Keywords: Թուրքիայի Հանրապետություն, Ռուսաստան, թյուրքեր, թյուրքական աշխարհ, քաղաքականություն, իսլամ, Խակասիա, Տուվա, Յակուտիա, Թաթարստան, Բաշկորտստան, Չուվաշիա
    Date: 2024–03–01
  10. By: Kurtz, Gerrit
    Abstract: Seit April 2023 herrscht Krieg in Sudan. Er ist Ausdruck grundsätzlicher Veränderungen in den politischen Machtverhältnissen. Der vorher dominierende Sicherheitssektor ist tief gespalten und die ehemals schwach vernetzte Zivilgesellschaft hoch mobilisiert. Einerseits ermöglichte die Konkurrenz innerhalb des Sicherheitssektors, eine zivil-militärische Übergangsregierung zu bilden. Andererseits erhöhte der weitere Aufstieg der Rapid Support Forces zur Macht das Risiko eines bewaffneten Konflikts, erst recht nach dem Putsch 2021. Seit Bashirs Fall 2019 haben die Sicherheitskräfte zweimal vergeblich versucht, eine alleinige Militärherrschaft zu errichten. Gleichwohl scheiterte auch die zivil-militärische Übergangsregierung, weil das Militär nach wie vor über erhebliche Machtressourcen verfügte. Sudans politische Elite trug zu diesem Ausgang bei, indem sie sich zu wenig um den Aufbau rechtsstaatlicher Institutionen und zu viel um die eigene Sichtbarkeit kümmerte. Internationale Akteure, die Sudans Übergangsprozess stärken wollten, hätten die Sicherheitskräfte entschiedener zurückdrängen können, statt sie reflexhaft einzubinden. Viele internationale und sudanesische Bemühungen krankten daran, dass sie entweder nur auf Einbindung oder nur auf Ausschluss der Sicherheitskräfte abstellten. Ein neuer Elitendeal allein mit Sudans Gewaltunternehmern wird keinen Frieden bringen, solange keine zivilen Kräfte am Tisch sitzen. Sudans beste Chance liegt vielmehr im Sozialkapital des freiwilligen Engagements seiner Bürger:innen für humanitäre Versorgung, Demo­kratie und lokale Versöhnung.
    Keywords: Sudan, Rapid Support Forces, RSF, Sudanese Armed Forces, SAF, UNAMID, UNITAMS, Forces of Freedom and Change, Local Resistance Committees, Juba Peace Agreement, Omar al-Bashir, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Abdalla Hamdok, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, Hemedti
    Date: 2024

This nep-ara issue is ©2024 by Paul Makdissi. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.