nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2026–02–23
twenty-two papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi, Université d’Ottawa


  1. Structural Domestic Conditions, Regional and International Financial Integrations: Evidence from MENA By Erdal Özmen; Fatma Tasdemir
  2. Decentralized South–South Cooperation: Morocco as a Catalyst for Inclusive Regional Development in Africa By Jamaa Lamkies
  3. A fourth Saudi state: The crown prince's reforms in politics, society and the economy By Steinberg, Guido
  4. Sovereign wealth funds and foreign policy: How Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar invest in their power By Roll, Stephan
  5. Occupational Segregation and the Gender Wage Gap in Egypt, 1998–2023 By Shireen AlAzzawi; Vladimir Hlasny
  6. The Impact of the Informal Sector on Firm Performance: New Evidence for MENA Firms By Hasan Murat ErtuÄŸrul; Ömer Tugsal Doruk; Ömer Faruk Tekdogan
  7. Trends in Income and Wage Inequality in Egypt (1988-2023) By Mona Elsayed; May Gadalla; Mariam Hagag
  8. Lien entre la justice organisationnelle et la satisfaction au travail : analyse et implications By Rania Gouba; Rachida Aallali
  9. The Role of Financial Inclusion in Reducing Youth Unemployment and Mortality in the MENA Region: An Application of FMOLS Approach with Panel Data By Jabrane Amaghouss; Hanane Elmasmari
  10. Startups Performance: Evidence from Tunisia By Achraf Khallouli; Rim Mouelhi
  11. Does Global Value Chain Participation Lead to Economic Upgrading? By Hüseyin A. Özer; Taner Turan; Halit Yanikkaya
  12. Artificial intelligence as a transformation catalyst: Modeling and optimizing digital customer experience in Moroccan e-commerce By Mohamed Salim Thamir; Ibtissam Lakhlili; Aya Sehmani
  13. Carrying the past with you across the border: Long-term effects of conflict and environmental stress exposure in Syria on the social well-being of refugees in Jordan By Francisca Castro; Tilman Brück; Hadi Jaafar; Wolfgang Stojetz
  14. The Impact of Political Instability on the Budget Deficit: Evidence from the MENA Region By Gouasmi, zeineb; El Ferktaji, riadh
  15. Unconditional Cash Transfers and Child Welfare in Turkey: Short-Term Evidence from the Family Support Program By Aysun Hiziroglu Aygun
  16. Connectedness and Portfolio Management between Clean Energy, Crude Oil Prices and Equities Market before and during The Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence for GCC Countries By Walid Chkili; Samir Mabrouk
  17. Pricing Behavior and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Iranian Consumer Prices By Hamidreza Aziminia; Seyed Ali Madanizadeh; Amineh Mahmoudzadeh
  18. Institutional Interaction and FDI Dynamics in the Growth of MENA Economies: Application to Dynamic Panel Data By Wiem El Abed; Mongi Lassoued
  19. La contribution du contrôle de gestion à l'amélioration du pilotage stratégique des participations de l'État selon les dispositions de la loi n° 82-20 : une analyse théorique. By Omar Benotman; Hamid Amifi; Abdenacer El Figha
  20. Confrontation with the West and Long-Run Economic and Institutional Outcomes: Evidence from Iran By Rok Spruk
  21. The Trajectory of the Introduction of Management Accounting in the Moroccan Public Sector: The Role of Human and Non-Human Actor By Said Najeh; Zaïnab Heyame; Khalid Oulad Seghir; Laura Espinasse
  22. Do Investments in Digital Infrastructure Improve Employment Outcomes ? Evidence from Türkiye By Demir, Banu; Grover, Arti

  1. By: Erdal Özmen (Middle East Technical University, Ankara); Fatma Tasdemir (Sinop University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of international (IFI) and regional financial integrations (RFI) on structural domestic conditions represented by financial development and governance in Middle East and North Africa economies (MENA). To this end, we first measure RFI in the MENA by using bilateral financial flows. Our results suggest that too much IFI deters whilst higher levels of RFI promote financial development. High levels of IFI and RFI both tend to be positively associated with institutional quality and governance. The empirical findings in this paper propose that MENA economies should engage in structural reforms, encompassing liberalization of capital accounts, eliminating barriers to regional financial integration, enhancing the institutional environment and financial development. In this vein, policymakers may be suggested to formulate strategies with the goal of maximizing the beneficial effects of both international and regional financial integrations.
    Date: 2024–09–20
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1728
  2. By: Jamaa Lamkies (ENCG - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion - UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar))
    Abstract: This theoretical article investigates decentralized South–South cooperation as a driver of inclusive regional development across Africa, with Morocco serving as the primary case study over the period 2011-2025. Drawing on contemporary scholarship in territorial governance, multi-level governance, and South–South collaboration, it constructs a conceptual framework that connects subnational partnerships—between Moroccan municipalities and regions—to key outcomes in capacity enhancement, infrastructure development, and integration into African value chains. The framework delineates three principal mechanisms by which Moroccan subnational entities advance inclusive regional development: (1) transfers of technical and institutional expertise; (2) targeted infrastructure and public service initiatives that mitigate territorial inequalities; and (3) network-driven market and investment connections that bolster continental integration. These mechanisms are positioned within the overarching context of African continental reforms, particularly the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The analysis addresses theoretical ramifications for territorial diplomacy and plural territory models. It concludes by proposing quantifiable indicators and empirical research methodologies for subsequent validation, while underscoring the necessity of verified official data for assessing partnership scale and financial dimensions.
    Abstract: Cet article théorique analyse la coopération décentralisée Sud-Sud comme vecteur de développement régional inclusif en Afrique, en prenant le cas du Maroc sur la période 2011-2025. Il s'attache à montrer comment les partenariats entre collectivités territoriales marocaines et africaines s'inscrivent dans la dynamique de la régionalisation avancée (loi organique n° 111-14) et de l'intégration continentale, notamment dans le cadre de la ZLECAF opérationnelle depuis 2021. L'article mobilise les travaux récents sur la gouvernance multi-niveaux, la diplomatie des territoires et le développement territorial pour proposer un cadre conceptuel reliant coopération décentralisée, inclusion territoriale et réduction des asymétries régionales. Il discute en particulier le rôle des régions marocaines comme plateformes de coopération Sud-Sud, articulant transferts d'expertise, renforcement des capacités locales et ancrage des territoires dans les chaînes de valeur africaines. La contribution principale réside dans la formalisation d'un modèle théorique du « territoire coopérant » en Afrique, qui ouvre des perspectives pour des recherches futures empiriques sur la mesure des impacts économiques, sociaux et institutionnels de la coopération décentralisée. Les chiffres précis relatifs aux accords, montants financiers ou indicateurs régionaux ne sont pas mentionnés ici faute de sources vérifiables mobilisées dans ce résumé ; ils devront être intégrés ultérieurement à partir de données officielles.
    Keywords: African Scientific Journal, Morocco, AfCFTA, Territorial governance, Inclusive regional development, South-South cooperation, Decentralized cooperation, Decentralized cooperation South-South cooperation Inclusive regional development Morocco AfCFTA Territorial governance
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05417940
  3. By: Steinberg, Guido
    Abstract: The political, social and economic reforms spearheaded by Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman serve the goal of consolidating his rule in the long term. Bin Salman has centralised decision-making in his own hands and is in full control of the country's politics. Authoritarianism under the crown prince is far more radical and uncompromising than was the case in Saudi Arabia until 2015. From the outset, Bin Salman promoted a pronounced Saudi nationalism, which many observers describe as a "Saudi-first" policy. From the crown prince's point of view, social and cultural liberalisation is a prerequisite for the success of his economic reforms and thus for the long-term survival of the kingdom and the ruling family. The reforms have had only limited success because Saudi Arabia remains highly dependent on oil revenues, despite a recent economic upturn.
    Keywords: Saudi Arabia, "Vision 2030", Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman, authoritarianism, "Saudi-first" policy, economic reforms, social and cultural liberalisation, oil revenues
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:336785
  4. By: Roll, Stephan
    Abstract: Five of the world's most active and largest sovereign wealth funds are to be found in the Gulf Region: the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) and the United Arab Emirates' Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Mubadala and ADQ. These funds not only serve to convert oil revenues into investment capital, thereby enabling the transition from rent-based to more diversified economies; they also contribute to expanding the foreign policy capabilities of the countries in which they are based. Institutional and personnel linkages enable the Saudi, Qatari and UAE governments to deploy their funds strategically, which, in turn, allows them to significantly expand their hard, soft, and sharp power - for example, through domestic and foreign investments in sectors such as armaments, media, sports and new technologies as well as through cooperation with politically influential actors. At the same time, the Gulf monarchies seek to portray their sovereign wealth funds as apolitical and purely profit-oriented - a narrative that is facilitated by the establishment of subsidiaries or cooperation with private equity firms. Understandably, Germany and its European partners have an interest in attracting sovereign wealth funds as investors, but they must not overlook the risks involved. These include third parties gaining access to critical infrastructure, sensitive military and security technology being leaked and the Gulf monarchies exercising political influence. Further, Germany and the EU must take a more fundamental look at how the three Gulf monarchies have increased their foreign policy options through the sovereign wealth funds. This is important as the actions of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar - at both the regional and international level - are at times contrary to German and European interests.
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:336773
  5. By: Shireen AlAzzawi (Santa Clara UniversityA); Vladimir Hlasny
    Abstract: Female labor force participation in Egypt remains low, and wages consistently under-reward women compared to men. This disparity is partly driven by the systematic channeling of women into lower-paying sectors, occupations, and firms, which results in downward pressure on wages. This paper examines the long-term relevance of the occupational segregation hypothesis in Egypt, utilizing labor market surveys from 1998 to 2023. Our findings reveal that women are predominantly concentrated in teaching, nursing, and clerical roles, despite increasing educational attainment in recent years. Occupational segregation significantly contributes to gender wage gaps, especially at the lower end and middle of the earnings distribution, where women face greater wage penalties. We conclude that addressing the gender pay gap in Egypt requires empowering women to access equal opportunities in diverse sectors, firms, and occupations, thus ensuring they can compete on equal terms with men in the labor market.
    Date: 2025–02–20
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1773
  6. By: Hasan Murat ErtuÄŸrul (Anadolu University); Ömer Tugsal Doruk (Adana Alparslan TürkeÅŸ Science and Technology University); Ömer Faruk Tekdogan (University of Ankara)
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of the informal sector on firm performance for over 10.000 nonfinancial firms operating in the 8 MENA countries covering 1997-2020 periods. Using a Panel Dynamic Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), we find that the effect of the informal sector on firm performance is negative. These estimates seem strong according to robustness check. We also do the analysis for SMEs and non-SMEs and find that SMEs are more sensitive to the informal sector. In terms of its findings, the study sheds new light on the MENA region by analyzing the relationship between informal economy and firm performance in a highly heterogeneous manner.
    Date: 2025–12–17
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1814
  7. By: Mona Elsayed; May Gadalla (Cairo University and ERF); Mariam Hagag
    Abstract: This paper examines the dynamics of income, wage levels, and distribution in Egypt, particularly emphasizing income inequality and diversification. This analysis is particularly crucial in light of the numerous shocks that hit the Egyptian economy in recent years. Drawing upon data from the 1988, 1998, 2006, 2012, 2018, and 2023 waves of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS), this paper studies the evolution of income and wage levels and distributions over time, including the trend in the shares of income sources and real wages. Additionally, we examine trends in income diversification, given that it is considered an integral tool for coping with economic shocks and reducing vulnerability. Finally, we explore trends in income and wage inequality relying on different inequality measures such as the Gini index, the general entropy at (1) and (-1), and different percentile ratios (e.g., 10/50, 90/50, and 90/10). We also conduct an inequality decomposition by income source to identify the key factors contributing to income disparities and changes in their contribution over time.
    Date: 2024–11–20
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1752
  8. By: Rania Gouba (École Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion (ENCG), Université Hassan II de Casablanca, Maroc); Rachida Aallali (École Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion (ENCG), Université Hassan II de Casablanca, Maroc)
    Abstract: This article provides an in-depth examination of the relationship between organizational justice and job satisfaction, using a mixed approach that combines a systematic literature review with an empirical study conducted among 50 respondents in Morocco. Organizational justice is explored through its four key dimensions: distributive justice (fairness in pay and rewards), procedural justice (transparency and impartiality in decisionmaking processes), interactional justice (quality, respect, and dignity in interpersonal interactions), and informational justice (clarity and accessibility of organizational communication). The findings indicate that all four dimensions of organizational justice have a significant positive influence on job satisfaction, with distributive justice emerging as the most influential factor, particularly within the Moroccan context. It is followed by interactional justice, then procedural justice, while informational justice shows a positive but comparatively smaller impact. Statistical analyses conducted using SPSS, including correlation and regression tests, confirm the existence of a strong and significant correlation between employees' perception of organizational justice and their level of job satisfaction. Employees who perceive their organization as fair, transparent, respectful, and participatory tend to demonstrate higher motivation, stronger engagement, and a greater intention to remain within the organization, thus contributing to enhanced overall performance and a reduction in turnover risks. The article emphasizes the importance for Moroccan organizations to adopt management policies grounded in equity, participation, transparent communication, and human respect in order to foster a healthy, stable, and highperforming work environment. Finally, the study opens avenues for future research by suggesting the integration of psychological or technological variables to further explore this relationship in increasingly modern and dynamic organizational contexts.
    Abstract: Cet article examine en profondeur la relation entre la justice organisationnelle et la satisfaction au travail, à travers une approche combinant une revue systématique de la littérature existante et une étude empirique menée auprès de 50 répondants au Maroc. La justice organisationnelle y est abordée selon ses quatre dimensions principales : la justice distributive (équité de la rémunération et des récompenses), la justice procédurale (transparence et impartialité des processus décisionnels), la justice interactionnelle (qualité des interactions humaines, respect et considération), et la justice informationnelle (clarté et accessibilité de l'information partagée au sein de l'organisation). Les résultats de l'analyse montrent que l'ensemble de ces dimensions exerce un impact positif significatif sur la satisfaction des employés, avec une influence particulièrement marquée de la justice distributive, perçue comme le facteur le plus déterminant dans le contexte marocain. Elle est suivie par la justice interactionnelle, puis la justice procédurale, tandis que la justice informationnelle affiche un effet positif mais plus modéré. Les analyses statistiques réalisées via SPSS (corrélations et régressions) confirment l'existence d'une corrélation forte et significative entre la perception de justice organisationnelle et le niveau de satisfaction au travail. Les employés qui perçoivent leur organisation comme juste, transparente, respectueuse et participative présentent un engagement plus élevé, une meilleure motivation et une intention plus forte de rester au sein de l'organisation, contribuant ainsi à la performance globale et à la réduction du turnover. L'étude recommande aux organisations marocaines d'adopter des politiques de gestion fondées sur l'équité, la participation et la communication responsable, tout en soulignant la nécessité d'intégrer, dans les recherches futures, des variables psychologiques ou technologiques afin de mieux comprendre cette relation dans des environnements professionnels en évolution rapide.
    Keywords: bien être professionnel, ressources humaines. JEL Classification : O15 Type du papier : Recherche empirique Organizational justice, job satisfaction, equity, job market, professional well-being, human resources. Classification JEL : O15 Paper type: Empirical Research, marché d'emploi, équité, satisfaction au travail, Justice organisationnelle, Justice organisationnelle satisfaction au travail équité marché d'emploi bien être professionnel ressources humaines. JEL Classification : O15 Type du papier : Recherche empirique Organizational justice job satisfaction equity job market professional well-being human resources. Classification JEL : O15 Paper type: Empirical Research
    Date: 2025–11–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05360051
  9. By: Jabrane Amaghouss (Cadi Ayyad University); Hanane Elmasmari (Cadi Ayyad University)
    Abstract: This study investigates the effects of financial inclusion on youth unemployment and mortality rates, using panel data from 17 countries in the MENA region over the period 2004-2022. Controlling for variables such as the ICT development index, economic growth, and inflation rates, the results reveal a causal relationship between financial inclusion and both youth unemployment and mortality rates. Moreover, the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) model results support the hypothesis that an inclusive financial system contributes to reducing both youth unemployment and mortality rates in the long term. Additionally, the GMM estimates further corroborate the role of financial inclusion in achieving SDGs 3 and 8. In contrast, the control variables show that an increase in the ICT development index raises unemployment but reduces the likelihood of youth mortality. Meanwhile, economic growth and inflation rate have a relatively weak impact on both youth unemployment and mortality risk in the MENA region.
    Date: 2025–12–14
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1813
  10. By: Achraf Khallouli (University of La Manouba); Rim Mouelhi (University of La Manouba)
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of intrinsic characteristics of startups, mainly, founders' characteristics (such as education, professional experience, and network) and business-related characteristics (such as product category and industry), on their performance. The study uses data from a portfolio of 51 startups belonging to a Tunisian Venture Capital firm to analyze the aforementioned impact. Performance is measured by revenue, raised funds, survival, and the firm's team assessment. The study deploys Multiple Linear Regression, Binary Logistic Regression, and Proportional Odds Logistic Regression to analyze the data. The findings contribute to the development of a framework for evidence-based investment decisions within the Venture Capital industry. The results highlight the importance of factors such as the quality of the university attended by founders, the repeat entrepreneur status, and the founder’s being full-time on the startup in predicting performance.
    Date: 2025–12–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1812
  11. By: Hüseyin A. Özer (Gebze Technical University); Taner Turan (Gebze Technical University); Halit Yanikkaya (Gebze Technical University)
    Abstract: Despite extensive research on Global Value Chains (GVCs), there remains a notable lack of empirical studies examining their impact on economic upgrading. Our study addresses this gap by investigating how different forms of GVC participation influence economic upgrading across industries. Our findings indicate that GVC participation plays a pivotal role in both product and process upgrading across all industries. For MENA region, both forward and backward GVC participation significantly and positively contribute to process and product upgrading in agriculture industry. On the other hand, while the fuels- minerals and manufacturing sectors exhibit product upgrading but these sectors do not demonstrate any improvement for process upgrading by GVC participation.
    Date: 2024–12–20
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1760
  12. By: Mohamed Salim Thamir (LEG - Laboratoire d'économie et de gestion (LEG), Faculté pluridisciplinaire de Khouribga (FPK), Université Sultan Moulay Slimane (USMS), Maroc); Ibtissam Lakhlili (LEG - Laboratoire d'économie et de gestion (LEG), Faculté pluridisciplinaire de Khouribga (FPK), Université Sultan Moulay Slimane (USMS), Maroc); Aya Sehmani (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar))
    Abstract: Abstract: Digital transformation is reshaping the e-commerce landscape in Morocco, forcing companies to strategically rethink customer experience. This study presents a critical narrative review of recent literature (2018–2025) exploring the transformative contributions of artificial intelligence (AI) in modeling online customer journeys. Our approach was based on a systematic analysis of key scientific publications, including reference articles, meta-analyses, and existing systematic reviews on this emerging field. The analytical framework developed deconstructs the relationship between AI and customer experience along several interrelated dimensions. The study first maps the theoretical applications of AI in customer experience optimization and evaluates the proposed conceptual framework to measure its impact on platform performance. It then reveals how the theoretical cultural characteristics of Moroccan consumers interact with intelligent interfaces, presenting unique design and adaptation challenges. Finally, the theoretical implementation model is tested using critical success factors documented in the emerging market literature. The results of this critical synthesis show that strategically adopting AI in the customer journey can generate dual conceptual added value: operational through process optimization and transformational through the creation of hyper-personalized contextual experiences. This study makes a significant contribution to the theoretical corpus of digital transformation in emerging market companies and offers a comprehensive conceptual framework. Its academic significance opens new perspectives for the development of cultural adaptation models for the integration of artificial intelligence technologies in the Moroccan digital environment. Keywords: Artificial intelligence, Customer experience, e-commerce, Customer journey, Digital transformation. Classification JEL: M39 Paper type: Theoretical Researc
    Abstract: Résumé : La transformation digitale est en train de modifier de manière significative le domaine du commerce électronique (E-Commerce) au Maroc, obligeant les entreprises à réévaluer systématiquement l'expérience des consommateurs. Cette recherche propose une revue narrative critique de la littérature contemporaine (2018-2025) qui étudie les rôles transformateurs de l'intelligence artificielle (IA) dans la structuration des trajectoires des clients en ligne. Notre méthodologie reposait sur un examen systématique des principales publications scientifiques, comprenant des articles fondateurs, des méta-analyses et des revues systématiques existantes pertinentes à ce domaine en plein essor. Le cadre analytique conçu désagrège l'interaction entre l'IA et l'expérience du consommateur selon plusieurs dimensions interdépendantes. Dans un premier temps, l'étude définit les applications théoriques de l'IA pour améliorer l'expérience des consommateurs et évalue le cadre conceptuel proposé pour évaluer ses effets sur l'efficacité des plateformes. Par la suite, il dévoile la manière dont les caractéristiques culturelles théoriques des consommateurs marocains interagissent avec les interfaces intelligentes, révélant ainsi des défis particuliers en matière de conception et d'adaptation. En fin de compte, le modèle de mise en œuvre théorique est examiné à la lumière des facteurs de succès critiques décrits dans la littérature relative aux marchés émergents. Les résultats de cette synthèse critique indiquent que l'adoption stratégique de l'IA dans le parcours du consommateur peut apporter une double valeur ajoutée conceptuelle : opérationnelle en affinant les processus et transformationnelle en facilitant des expériences contextuelles hyperpersonnalisées. Cette étude apporte une contribution substantielle à l'ensemble des connaissances théoriques concernant la transformation numérique des entreprises des marchés émergents et présente un cadre conceptuel complet. Son importance académique ouvre la voie à de nouvelles perspectives sur la formulation de modèles d'adaptation culturelle pour l'assimilation des technologies d'intelligence artificielle dans le paysage numérique marocain. Mots clés : Intelligence artificielle, Expérience client, E-commerce, Parcours client, Transformation numérique. JEL Classification : M39 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique
    Keywords: E-commerce, Parcours client, Transformation numérique. JEL Classification : M39 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique Artificial intelligence, Customer experience, e-commerce, Customer journey, Digital transformation. Classification JEL: M39 Paper type: Theoretical Research, Expérience client, Intelligence artificielle, Intelligence artificielle Expérience client E-commerce Parcours client Transformation numérique. JEL Classification : M39 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique Artificial intelligence Customer experience e-commerce Customer journey Digital transformation. Classification JEL: M39 Paper type: Theoretical Research
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05405390
  13. By: Francisca Castro; Tilman Brück; Hadi Jaafar; Wolfgang Stojetz
    Abstract: When refugees flee abroad, they carry the legacy of their traumatic experiences across borders. While there are over 43 million refugees worldwide, the long-term effects of conflict exposure on their well-being remain poorly understood. This paper examines how pre-displacement exposure to violent conflict and environmental stressors shapes the long-term social well-being of Syrian refugees in Jordan, focusing on life satisfaction, social trust, and social safety nets.
    Keywords: Refugees, Conflict, Climate, Wellbeing, Mental health, Syria, Jordan
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-5
  14. By: Gouasmi, zeineb; El Ferktaji, riadh
    Abstract: The revolutions in the MENA region countries were experienced as a negative economic shock. This led to popular demands and, at the same time, a worsening of public finances in a climate of political instability. It is therefore relevant to address the question: Is the reduction of the budget deficit dependent on explanatory political variables such as democracy and political stability? In this article, we examined the relationship between the budget deficit and political instability/democracy while using other macroeconomic control variables, such as GDP growth, the consumer price index, and oil prices. This relationship was estimated for a sample of MENA region countries using a dynamic panel data econometric model over the period 2008-2019. The results of this article show that political instability and democracy have a significant impact on the budget deficit in the selected group of MENA region countries. Specifically, the model's estimation found that the democratic political regime positively impacts the budget balance.
    Keywords: Budget Deficit. Political instability. MENA Region
    JEL: C4 D72 H62
    Date: 2025–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127249
  15. By: Aysun Hiziroglu Aygun (Istanbul Technical University)
    Abstract: We examine how a modest unconditional cash transfer policy affects child labor, schooling and health during periods of high inflation by studying Turkey's Family Support Program, launched in 2022. Using a regression discontinuity design based on the program's per capita income eligibility threshold, we analyze the program's short-term effects within six months of implementation. Despite the program's relatively modest transfer amounts—approximately one-third of the monthly minimum wage—we find significant reductions in children's participation in family businesses and agricultural work. Investigating the heterogeneous effects, we find that the program reduces non-market work for boys and domestic work for girls. Notably, these labor reductions occurred without corresponding increases in school enrollment or time spent on educational activities, with the exception of a suggestive rise in boys’ school hours. We also find improvements in children’s emotional well-being and daily protein consumption primarily for boys, and a reduction in unhealthy dietary habits among girls. Our findings suggest that even a modest transfer policy can enhance child welfare through multiple channels.
    Date: 2025–12–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1811
  16. By: Walid Chkili (University of Tunis El Manar); Samir Mabrouk (University of Sousse)
    Abstract: This paper examines the risk dependence between clean energy, oil prices and GCC stock markets during the period 2015-2023 covering the two recent events of COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukrainian conflict. The main purpose is to investigate the volatility spillovers of clean and dirty energy markets versus GCC stock indices. We use two methodologies namely the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) volatility spillover index and the wavelet coherence analysis. The Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness index shows that oil prices, KSA and Kuwait stock markets are the net transmitter of shocks while clean energy index and the stock markets of UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman are net receiver of volatility. The wavelet coherency approach reveals that the dependence between clean energy/oil prices and the stock markets varies across time scales and considered countries. The intense coherence is detected during the oil crash and the COVID-19 crisis at low frequencies (high scales). The findings have several financial implications for investors and portfolio managers. The GCC investors should add either clean energy or crude oil to their portfolio of stocks in order to minimize the risk of portfolio. The hedging ratios show that both clean energy and crude oil offer effective hedging strategies. Finally, the hedging effectiveness index reveals a higher reduction of hedged portfolio risk involving clean energy than crude oil.
    Date: 2024–12–20
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1764
  17. By: Hamidreza Aziminia (Sharif University of Technology); Seyed Ali Madanizadeh (Sharif University of Technology); Amineh Mahmoudzadeh (Sharif University of Technology)
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on the impact of exchange rate depreciation on pricing behavior. Using micro data on consumer price quotes in Iran from 2006 to 2022, we study price adjustments across a wide range of macroeconomic conditions—from low to high inflation and from stable to volatile exchange rates. While most existing studies emphasize the role of inflation, our analysis highlights the distinct contribution of exchange rate depreciation. We find that (1) in the short run, both the frequency and absolute size of price changes respond more to inflation than to exchange rate depreciation, but FX effects is stronger over longer horizons; (2) FX depreciation has a pronounced nonlinear effect on frequency of price changes, showing a significant impact only at high depreciation levels, while inflation displays a more linear pattern; (3) we find no evidence of nonlinear effects for either inflation or FX depreciation on the absolute size of price changes; and (4) expected inflation influences pricing behavior independently of actual inflation.
    Date: 2025–12–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1809
  18. By: Wiem El Abed (USO - جامعة سوسة = Université de Sousse = University of Sousse); Mongi Lassoued (USO - جامعة سوسة = Université de Sousse = University of Sousse)
    Abstract: This study analyzes the interaction between institutional quality and FDI dynamics in driving economic growth across 16 MENA countries over the period 2011-2024. Using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) developed by Arellano and Bond (1991), it addresses the endogeneity between growth, FDI, and institutional factors. The results suggest that FDI positively contributes to growth, but its impact largely depends on the quality of institutions. Countries with strong governance and sound regulatory frameworks benefit more from technology transfer and productivity spillovers generated by FDI. The study therefore highlights that institutional improvement is a key lever for maximizing the benefits of foreign investment and fostering sustainable growth in the MENA region.
    Keywords: FDI, GMM method, Institutional quality, Economic growth
    Date: 2026–01–27
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05491999
  19. By: Omar Benotman (ESTC - Ecole Supérieure de Technologie de Casablanca); Hamid Amifi (ESTC - Ecole Supérieure de Technologie de Casablanca); Abdenacer El Figha (ESTC - Ecole Supérieure de Technologie de Casablanca)
    Abstract: The management of State shareholdings in Public Institutions and Enterprises (PIEs) is a critical issue for ensuring the efficiency and transparency of public intervention. Consequently, the strategic steering of performance within these entities is considered a decisive challenge for public authorities. To address this, the State has initiated a major public sector reform project. The primary objective is to establish a robust system for governing the State's holdings in these public bodies. As a strategic governance tool, management control is seen as essential for optimizing the strategic oversight of these public investments. The enactment of Law No. 82-20 introduces new provisions specifically designed to strengthen control and promote the sound and effective use of public resources. The purpose of this study is therefore to examine, drawing upon an existing scoping review, how performance management—leveraging the mechanisms established by Law No. 82-20—act as a key catalyst for the strategic shaping and monitoring of the State's equity portfolio? To answer this question, the research must first establish a conceptual definition of the key terms: management control, strategic steering, and State holdings. Following this, the study will present an in-depth review of existing literature regarding management control and its interplay with strategic steering. Ultimately, this research aims to highlight the links between management control, strategic performance steering, and the governance of State holdings within the Moroccan context. It will also emphasize the advantages of implementing such a system for enhancing performance management and reinforcing sound governance practices across PIEs.
    Abstract: La gestion des participations de l'État dans les entreprises et administrations publiques (EEP) est un enjeu vital pour l'efficience et la clarté de l'intervention publique. De ce fait, le pilotage stratégique de la performance de ces entités semble être un enjeu déterminant pour les pouvoirs publics. Pour ce faire, l'Etat avait lancé un vaste chantier de réforme du secteur public. L'objectif est d'instaurer un dispositif de pilotage des participations de l'Etat dans ces entités publiques. D'un autre coté, en tant qu'outil de pilotage stratégique, le contrôle de gestion pourrait être crucial pour optimiser la supervision stratégique de ces investissements. La promulgation de la loi n° 82-20 instaure de nouvelles dispositions qui pourront renforcer le contrôle, promouvoir le bon usage des ressources publiques. L'objet de la présente étude est d'examiner, en se basant sur une revue exploratoire existante, comment le contrôle de gestion, à travers les dispositifs de la loi n° 82-20, pourrait-il contribuer à un pilotage stratégique des participations de l'Etat? La réponse à cette question semble devoir passer, tout d'abord, par une délimitation conceptuelle des notions de contrôle de gestion, du pilotage stratégique et de participations de l'Etat. Ensuite, l'étude présentera une revue de littérature approfondie à propos du contrôle de gestion et ses interactions avec le pilotage stratégique. Cette recherche se propose de mettre en exergue les interactions entre le contrôle de gestion, le pilotage stratégique de la performance, et la gouvernance des participations de l'Etat dans le contexte marocain. Elle relève aussi les avantages de la mise en œuvre d'un tel système dans le pilotage de la performance ainsi que le renforcement de la bonne gouvernance dans les EEP.
    Keywords: Pilotage stratégique, Participations de l'État, Entreprises et Etablissements publics, La Loi n°82-20. JEL Classification : Z18. Type du papier : Recherche Théorique, Contrôle de gestion, Contrôle de gestion Pilotage stratégique Participations de l'État Entreprises et Etablissements publics La Loi n°82-20. JEL Classification : Z18. Type du papier : Recherche Théorique
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05419889
  20. By: Rok Spruk
    Abstract: This paper studies the long-run economic and institutional consequences of Iran's confrontation with the West, treating the 2006-2007 strategic shift as the onset of a sustained confrontation regime rather than a discrete sanctions episode. Using synthetic control and generalized synthetic control methods, I construct transparent counterfactuals for Iran's post-confrontation trajectory from a donor pool of countries with continuously normalized relations with the West. I find large, persistent losses in real GDP and GDP per capita, accompanied by sharp declines in foreign direct investment, trade integration, and non-oil exports. These economic effects coincide with substantial and durable deterioration in political stability, rule of law, and control of corruption. Magnitude calculations imply cumulative output losses comparable to civil-war settings, despite the absence of internal armed conflict. The results highlight confrontation as a deep and persistent economic and institutional shock, extending the literature beyond short-run sanctions effects to sustained geopolitical isolation.
    Date: 2026–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.03231
  21. By: Said Najeh (FSJES TANGER - faculté des sciences juridiques economiques et sociales de Tanger, LAREGS, Higher School of Technology, Moulay Ismail University, Meknes); Zaïnab Heyame (FSJES TANGER - faculté des sciences juridiques economiques et sociales de Tanger, UVSQ, Paris Saclay University, LAREQUOI, Versailles); Khalid Oulad Seghir (UAE - Abdelmalek Essaadi University [Tétouan] = Université Abdelmalek Essaadi [Tétouan]); Laura Espinasse (LIREM - Laboratoire de Recherche en Management - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, IUT BPB - IUT de Bayonne et du Pays Basque, UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)
    Abstract: The introduction of management tools in public establishments is an unavoidable trend. Like private companies, these establishments increasingly rely on such tools to enhance their performance. However, the introduction of management accounting in Moroccan public establishments is not a neutral process, but the result of complex interactions between human and non-human actors. Using Actor-Network Theory (ANT), this study explored how these interactions shaped and reconfigured the trajectory of this process. Through a longitudinal study of a single case, the research highlights how the introduction of management accounting evolves from a linear to a whirlwind process. The results revealed that the interaction between the various actors, including the objects, not only transformed the trajectory, but also enabled the introduction of management accounting with a transformation in relation to the tool objectives, from a negotiation tool to a simple costing tool. This study highlights the importance of understanding sociotechnical dynamics in the introduction of management accounting in the Moroccan public sector.
    Keywords: Trajectory management accounting public establishment actor network theory, actor network theory, public establishment, management accounting, Trajectory
    Date: 2025–12–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05501917
  22. By: Demir, Banu; Grover, Arti
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of improvements in digital infrastructure on labor market performance, focusing on employment and productivity, measured by average wages. The empirical setting exploits the staggered expansion of high-speed fiber broadband across provinces in Türkiye, using linked employer-employee administrative data and complementary Labor Force Surveys. Across specifications, better digital connectivity raises formal employment and wages, with effects concentrated in occupations amenable to remote work. Most of these gains arise from workers—disproportionately women—entering teleworkable occupations enabled by high-quality internet access. Detailed occupational data reveal that these effects are driven by within-province switches from non-teleworkable to teleworkable jobs, consistent with the relaxation of mobility constraints and the expansion of work-from-home opportunities as a key channel. Wage gains are concentrated among high-skilled workers, although employment effects also extend to lower-skilled women in teleworkable roles. In contrast to the effects of digital connectivity, comparable investments in road infrastructure that enhance physical connectivity produce more mixed results: reduced travel times can improve access to jobs, but competition from nearby regions may offset these benefits.
    Date: 2026–02–17
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11314

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