nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2026–07–20
twelve papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi, Université d’Ottawa


  1. The Necessity of Open Banking to Face Neobanks in Morocco: Empirical Evidence and Strategic Imperatives By Rachid Maghniwi; Mustapha Oukassi
  2. The Determinants of E-Entrepreneurship Intention Among Generation Z in Morocco By Rachid Maghniwi
  3. Gendered Capability Deprivation in Early Childhood: Evidence from Four MENA Countries By Mohammad Abu-Zaineh; Sahar F. Yousef
  4. Tax Pressure and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Morocco Using an ARDL-ECM Framework By Mounir Atlassi; Mohamed Karim; Ilham Dkhissi
  5. Le manager public comme acteur du changement dans les réformes du Nouveau Management Public : proposition d’un modèle conceptuel By Souad Ichaoui; Bilal Bourkha
  6. Hospital Supply Chain Bottlenecks: An Integrative Analytical Framework for Moroccan Public Emergency Departments By Selma Chadli; Kenza Idrissi; Anouar Meddaoui; Abdelhak Yaacoubi
  7. Health Insurance and Household Savings By Sara Loukili; Patti Fisher
  8. Towards a Sustainable Recovery for Lebanon’s Economy By Hausmann, Ricardo; Panizza, Ugo; Reinhart, Carmen; Barrios, Douglas; Brenot, Clement; Daboin Pacheco, Jesus Enrique; Graf von Luckner, Clemens; Muci, Frank; Venturi, Lucila
  9. Housing Policy and Fertility Behavior in Egypt: Evidence from the 1996 Rental Liberalization By D'AGOSTINI, CECILIA; FERRONE, LUCIA; Giannelli, Gianna
  10. Intergenerational Effects of Turkiye's Education Reform on Children's Academic and Health Outcomes By Akar, Betul; Okten, Cagla
  11. Blockade der Straße von Hormus: Mehr als eine Ölkrise By Bähr, Cornelius
  12. Fiscal Structure and Tax Revenue Dynamics in Morocco: A Disaggregated Time Series Analysis By Mounir Atlassi; Mohamed Karim; Ilham Dkhissi

  1. By: Rachid Maghniwi (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat, LARMODAD - Research laboratory in organizational management, business law and sustainable development (LARMODAD),); Mustapha Oukassi (LARMODAD - Research laboratory in organizational management, business law and sustainable development (LARMODAD),)
    Abstract: The Moroccan banking sector is undergoing a profound structural transformation driven by the convergence of fintech disruption, neobank emergence, and regulatory modernisation. This paper investigates the extent to which Open Banking constitutes a strategic and operational imperative for Moroccan incumbent banks seeking to retain market relevance in an environment characterised by intensifying digital competition. Drawing on a sequential explanatory mixed-methods design, the study combines a quantitative survey of 500 retail banking clients across five major Moroccan cities with 25 semi-structured expert interviews conducted with bank executives, regulatory officials, and fintech entrepreneurs. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) grounded in the UTAUT2 framework quantifies adoption drivers, while thematic content analysis triangulates expert perspectives. Findings reveal that 67.4% of surveyed clients used at least one neobank or fintech payment service in the previous twelve months, compared to just 18.6% in 2021. Client satisfaction with neobank services averages 4.1/5.0, significantly exceeding satisfaction with incumbent banks (3.2/5.0). Three significant predictors of Open Banking adoption are identified: Performance Expectancy (β = 0.42; p < 0.001), Hedonic Motivation (β = 0.31; p < 0.01), and Perceived Regulatory Trust (β = 0.28; p < 0.05). Open Banking emerges not as a technological option but as a structural response to the competitive asymmetry created by neobanks. The paper proposes an Open Banking Maturity Model (OBMM) adapted to the Moroccan regulatory context
    Abstract: Le secteur bancaire marocain est confronté à une disruption numérique accélérée portée par l'essor des néobanques, dans un contexte où l'absence d'un standard Open Banking structuré constitue une lacune réglementaire critique et un vide scientifique peu étudié en Afrique du Nord. Cette étude examine dans quelle mesure l'Open Banking constitue un impératif stratégique pour les banques marocaines établies. Sur la base d'un design mixte séquentiel explicatif (enquête, n = 500 ; 25 entretiens experts), la modélisation PLS-SEM anchée dans le cadre UTAUT2 étendu identifie trois déterminants significatifs : l'Espérance de Performance (β = 0, 42 ; p < 0, 001), la Motivation Hédonique (β = 0, 31 ; p < 0, 01) et la Confiance Réglementaire Perçue (β = 0, 28 ; p < 0, 05) — ce dernier construit constituant une extension originale du modèle UTAUT2 au contexte de l'adoption de services financiers numériques. La pénétration des néo-banques a progressé de 18, 6 % (2021) à 67, 4 % (2024), confirmant l'urgence stratégique. L'étude propose le Modèle de Maturité Open Banking (MMOB) en quatre stades, adapté au contexte réglementaire marocain.
    Keywords: Open Banking, Néo-banques, Fintech, Maroc, Numérisation bancaire, API bancaire, Adoption client
    Date: 2026–04–24
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05638599
  2. By: Rachid Maghniwi (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat)
    Abstract: This study investigates the determinants of e-entrepreneurship intention among Generation Z in Morocco using an extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) framework integrated with digital-specific constructs. Drawing upon entrepreneurship intention literature and adapting models to the digital context, this research proposes a comprehensive structural equation model incorporating digital literacy, technological self-efficacy, perceived digital opportunity, family and peer support, entrepreneurial education, and economic motivation as key predictors. The theoretical framework is grounded in Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behavior, extended to address the unique characteristics of digital entrepreneurship and the Moroccan socio-cultural context. This article presents a rigorous statistical modeling approach applicable to empirical validation, providing a foundation for understanding how Generation Z in Morocco forms intentions toward e-entrepreneurship in an increasingly digitalized economy.
    Keywords: Theory of Planned Behavior, Structural Equation Modeling, Digital entrepreneurship, Youth entrepreneurship, Morocco, Generation Z, E-entrepreneurship intention, E-entrepreneurship intention Generation Z Morocco Theory of Planned Behavior Structural Equation Modeling Digital entrepreneurship Youth entrepreneurship
    Date: 2026–01–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05453373
  3. By: Mohammad Abu-Zaineh (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Sahar F. Yousef (Doha Institute for Graduate Studies)
    Abstract: This article examines gender differences in early childhood capability deprivation in Algeria, Morocco, Syria, and Yemen. Using nationally representative surveys from the Pan Arab Project for Family Health, we estimate deprivation among children aged 0-4 in three latent dimensions: nutrition, sanitation, and access to information. The empirical strategy combines a capability-deprivation framework with multi-group structural equation modelling, measurement-invariance tests, and multidimensional aggregation. The results show that gendered deprivation is neither uniform nor always to the disadvantage of girls. Female children are more likely to be capability deprived on aggregate in Algeria, Morocco, and Yemen, while male children appear more deprived in Syria. Gender disparities also vary across dimensions: boys are more likely to be nutrition-deprived in Morocco and Syria, while girls are more likely to be sanitation-deprived in Algeria and Morocco and information-deprived in Morocco and Yemen. Rural residence and low household-head education are generally associated with weaker achievements in nutrition, sanitation, and information. The findings contribute to applied research on child poverty measurement and gender inequality by showing that gendered capability deprivation is observable before school age and is patterned by household and public-service conditions.
    Keywords: Early childhood deprivation; Gender inequality; Structural equation modelling; Multidimensional poverty; MENA; Capability approach
    JEL: C38 I15 I31 I32 J16 O15 O53
    Date: 2026–05–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2621
  4. By: Mounir Atlassi (University Mohammed V, Rabat, Morocco); Mohamed Karim (University Mohammed V, Rabat, Morocco); Ilham Dkhissi (BEAR Lab - RBS - UIR - BEAR Lab - Rabat Business School - International University of Rabat)
    Abstract: This paper examines the macroeconomic determinants and dynamic adjustment of tax pressure in Morocco over the period 2000–2024 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and its associated Error Correction Model (ECM). While the empirical literature on Moroccan taxation remains largely static and descriptive, offering limited insight into short-run adjustment dynamics, this study addresses this gap by providing a dynamic analysis of fiscal adjustment mechanisms in an emerging economy context. The results reveal a mixed order of integration among the variables, justifying the use of the ARDL approach. Although the bounds test yields inconclusive evidence of cointegration, the error correction term is negative and highly statistically significant (−0.833, p
    Keywords: Tax pressure, Fiscal policy, ARDL-ECM, Macroeconomic determinants, Fiscal adjustment.
    Date: 2026–05–14
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05622906
  5. By: Souad Ichaoui (Université Mohammed Premier [Oujda] = Université Mohammed Ier = University of Mohammed First, ENCGO - ecole nationale de commerce et de gestion d'oujda); Bilal Bourkha (Université Mohammed Premier [Oujda] = Université Mohammed Ier = University of Mohammed First)
    Abstract: This article analyzes the role of the public manager as a central actor of change in New Public Management (NPM) reforms, drawing on an in-depth literature review and proposing a conceptual framework adapted to the Moroccan context. The research is based on a systematic literature review drawing on scientific publications from major academic databases, particularly Scopus and Web of Science, covering the recent period of development of research on New Public Management and public administration transformations. Faced with the gap identified in the literature, which has largely privileged the institutional and structural determinants of reforms to the detriment of internal managerial dynamics, this article highlights three fundamental roles of the public manager: translator, mediator, and mobilizer. As a translator, the public manager interprets and adapts the principles of NPM to local institutional and cultural realities. As a mediator, they ensure the articulation between strategic orientations and operational practices. As a mobilizer, they engage teams and help overcome resistance to change. These three roles structure an integrative conceptual framework articulated around four theoretical propositions concerning the applicability of NPM as a dependent variable. In this perspective, the applicability of NPM is understood as the capacity of public organizations to adopt and implement the principles and managerial instruments associated with New Public Management in their management practices. The fourth proposition integrates the Moroccan institutional context — bureaucratic rigidities, governance deficits, and persistent cultural resistance — as a moderating variable that attenuates the effect of the three managerial roles on the applicability of NPM. The analysis of the Moroccan context reveals that these roles are exercised in an environment marked by bureaucratic rigidities, governance deficits, and persistent cultural resistance, highlighting the need to strengthen managerial capacities as an essential lever for administrative modernization.
    Abstract: Déclaration de divulgation :Les auteurs n'ont pas connaissance de quelconque financement qui pourrait affecter l'objectivité de cette étude. Ils assument l'entière responsabilité de tout éventuel plagiat, de l'usage de l'intelligence artificielle dans la rédaction, ainsi que des résultats présentés dans cet article. Conflit d'intérêts :Les auteurs ne signalent aucun conflit d'intérêts.
    Keywords: Manager public Applicabilité du NMP changement organisationnel réforme administrative Maroc. JEL Classification : H83 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique Public manager Applicability of NPM organizational change administrative reform Morocco. Classification JEL: H83 Paper type: Theoretical Research, Manager public, Applicabilité du NMP, changement organisationnel, réforme administrative, Maroc. JEL Classification : H83 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique Public manager, Applicability of NPM, organizational change, administrative reform, Morocco. Classification JEL: H83 Paper type: Theoretical Research
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05617999
  6. By: Selma Chadli (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)); Kenza Idrissi (Université Mundiapolis Casablanca); Anouar Meddaoui (Hassan II University, ENSAM, Mechanical Engineering Department, Casablanca,); Abdelhak Yaacoubi (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar))
    Abstract: Context: Moroccan public hospital emergency departments face growing tension between increasing healthcare demand and organizational processes still governed by first-come, first-served rules, indifferent to patient clinical severity. This mismatch generates structural congestion phenomena that are organizational in nature, not capacitary. Gap: Despite substantial international literature on emergency department crowding, research specific to the Moroccan public hospital context remains scarce and fragmented (El Fakir et al., 2016). No integrative analytical framework explicitly articulates, for this context, managerial focusing theories, mathematical queuing models, process mapping tools and the hospital supply chain perspective. Objective and framework: This article proposes an integrative framework combining four complementary theoretical corpora: the Theory of Constraints (TOC), queuing theory, Lean-BPM tools (Value Stream Mapping and Business Process Management) and the hospital supply chain perspective. Empirical application and main result: This framework is applied to the Emergency Department of Mohammed Ben Abdallah Hospital in Mohammedia, based on 323 consecutive days of observation and 85, 486 admissions (June 2024-April 2025). The analysis reveals a structural bottleneck at the care stage: 59.29 minutes of waiting for 9.21 minutes of treatment, yielding a ratio of 6.4, the mathematical signature of the dominant system constraint. Contribution: The article makes a theoretical contribution (an integrative model of four corpora), a methodological contribution (a reproducible four-step approach: process diagnosis, constraint identification, variability modeling, future state design) and a managerial contribution (operational prescriptions achievable at constant resources for Moroccan public emergency departments).
    Abstract: Contexte : Les services d'urgences hospitalières publics marocains sont confrontés à une tension croissante entre une demande de soins en forte augmentation, liée à l'extension de la couverture sanitaire universelle, et des processus organisationnels encore fondés sur la règle du premier arrivé, premier servi, indifférente à la gravité clinique des patients. Cette inadéquation génère des phénomènes de congestion structurels dont les causes relèvent de l'organisation interne des flux, et non d'un déficit de ressources. Gap scientifique : Si la littérature internationale a largement documenté les mécanismes de saturation des urgences, les travaux spécifiques au contexte hospitalier public marocain restent rares et fragmentaires (El Fakir et al., 2016). Aucun cadre analytique intégratif n'articule explicitement, pour ce contexte, les théories managériales de focalisation, la modélisation mathématique des files d'attente, les outils de cartographie des processus et la perspective logistique de la supply chain hospitalière. Objectif et cadre analytique : En réponse à ce déficit analytique, cet article propose un cadre intégratif mobilisant quatre corpus complémentaires : la Théorie des Contraintes (TOC), la théorie des files d'attente, les outils Lean-BPM (Value Stream Mapping et Business Process Management) et la perspective de la supply chain hospitalière. Terrain et résultat principal : Ce cadre est mis à l'épreuve au Service des Urgences de l'Hôpital Mohammed Ben Abdallah de Mohammedia, sur la base de 323 jours d'observation continue et 85 486 admissions (juin 2024 - avril 2025). L'analyse empirique révèle un goulot structurel à l'étape des soins : 59, 29 minutes d'attente pour 9, 21 minutes de traitement effectif, soit un ratio de 6, 4, signature mathématique de la contrainte dominante au sens de Goldratt et Cox (2004). Contribution : L'article apporte une contribution théorique (modèle intégratif des quatre corpus), méthodologique (démarche reproductible en quatre temps : diagnostic processuel, identification des contraintes, modélisation de la variabilité, conception de l'état futur) et managériale (prescriptions opérationnelles à ressources constantes pour les urgences publiques marocaines).
    Keywords: Moroccan context JEL Classification: I10, Service des urgences Théorie des Contraintes Supply chain hospitalière Lean-BPM Goulots d'étranglement Contexte marocain Classification JEL : I10 I11 M11 L23 Emergency department Theory of Constraints Hospital supply chain Lean-BPM Bottlenecks Moroccan context JEL Classification: I10 I11 M11 L23, Service des urgences, Théorie des Contraintes, Supply chain hospitalière, L23, Lean-BPM, Bottlenecks, Hospital supply chain, Theory of Constraints, L23 Emergency department, M11, I11, Contexte marocain Classification JEL : I10, Goulots d'étranglement
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05676126
  7. By: Sara Loukili (Babnk Al--Maghrib); Patti Fisher (Virginia Tech University)
    Abstract: This study examines the relationship between health insurance coverage and household saving behavior in Morocco using nationally representative data from the household consumption and expenditure survey. The analysis reveals that access to health insurance is associated with reduced household savings, particularly among vulnerable groups including low-income families, rural households, and female-headed households. These findings suggest that health insurance may crowd-out precautionary savings, which may be of interest in the context of ongoing social protection and financial inclusion discussions. This research contributes to understanding how expanding health coverage influences household financial decision-making in the context of a developing country such as Morocco and opens many avenues for future research.
    Keywords: Household savings; Health insurance; Morocco; Social protection; AMO
    JEL: D12 D14 D91 E21 I13
    Date: 2025–10–20
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:bkamdt:023111
  8. By: Hausmann, Ricardo; Panizza, Ugo; Reinhart, Carmen; Barrios, Douglas; Brenot, Clement; Daboin Pacheco, Jesus Enrique; Graf von Luckner, Clemens; Muci, Frank; Venturi, Lucila
    Abstract: Lebanon’s current economic crisis ranks among the worst in recent history. GDP has collapsed by 38% in real terms. The Lebanese lira, which was fixed to the dollar in 1997, has lost more than 98% of its value on the parallel market. The government has defaulted on its debt, and depositors are unable to access their funds held at commercial banks. Consolidated public sector debt, including both government debt and commercial banks’ claims on the Banque du Liban (BdL), represents more than seven times the current GDP. Public services delivery has crumbled. In short, the country is undergoing a debt crisis, a banking crisis, a currency crisis, and a growth collapse. Four years into the crisis, a resolution remains elusive, and each passing day increases the economic and social burdens faced by the population. Given the increasing cost of delaying a resolution, we propose a strategy for Lebanon’s economic recovery that addresses all the dimensions of the crisis while recognizing the need to rapidly kick-start the economic recovery.
    Date: 2026–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21222
  9. By: D'AGOSTINI, CECILIA (University of Florence); FERRONE, LUCIA (UNIVERSITY OF FLORENCE); Giannelli, Gianna (University of Florence)
    Abstract: Egypt’s demographic trajectory has shifted markedly over recent decades, with fertility declines in the 1980s and 1990s followed by a reversal that peaked at 3.5 children per woman in 2014. While previous research has examined determinants such as women’s employment, contraceptive use, and migration, the role of housing policy remains largely unexplored. This study investigates the impact of Egypt’s 1996 rental market liberalization on fertility. Using four waves of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) combined with district-level housing data from the 2006 Census, we exploit geographic and temporal variation in exposure to the reform. We examine whether women of marriageable age in 1996 living in districts with greater availability of liberalized rental units experienced different fertility outcomes. Results show that exposure to the reform increased the likelihood of childbearing and positively affected other fertility measures, including age at first birth and parity at ages 25, 30, and 35. Evidence suggests that earlier marriage is the main mechanism, consistent with the reform lowering housing constraints for young couples.
    Keywords: Egypt, fertility, housing, liberalization
    JEL: J13 J16 O18 R21
    Date: 2026–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18734
  10. By: Akar, Betul (TUBITAK); Okten, Cagla (Bilkent University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the intergenerational effects of Turkiye’s 1997 compulsory schooling reform, which increased mandatory schooling from five to eight years. Drawing on a novel dataset from the nationally representative 2022 Turkish Child Survey, we use a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to identify the causal effect of mothers’ exposure to the reform. We find that the reform significantly increased maternal educational attainment and, in turn, improved children’s performance in Turkish, while having no statistically significant effect on mathematics achievement. Maternal exposure to the reform also had positive effects on children’s mental health, increasing happiness and reducing anxiety, but did not affect their general health status. These effects are heterogeneous by child gender, with boys benefiting more than girls. Analysis of potential channels shows that increased parental investment may be one relevant channel explaining the observed effects, while reduced child work appears to play a limited role.
    Keywords: mother’s education, compulsory schooling, child outcomes, mental health, physical health
    JEL: I21 I24 J13 J24
    Date: 2026–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18735
  11. By: Bähr, Cornelius
    Abstract: In Folge des Angriffs der USA und Israels auf den Iran blockierte zunächst der Iran die Straße von Hormus. Die Blockade wurde durch Gegenmaßnahmen der USA verschärft. Auch im Falle einer baldigen Öffnung des Seeweges werden die Auswirkungen der Blockade noch länger spürbar bleiben. Dabei sind nicht nur Transporte von Öl- und Gasprodukten betroffen.
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:341665
  12. By: Mounir Atlassi (University Mohamed V, Rabat); Mohamed Karim (University Mohamed V, Rabat); Ilham Dkhissi (BEAR Lab - RBS - UIR - BEAR Lab - Rabat Business School - International University of Rabat)
    Abstract: This paper examines the dynamics of tax revenues and fiscal structure in Morocco over the period 2000-2024, with a particular focus on the temporal behavior of major tax components and their adjustment to revenue fluctuations. Building on the literature on fiscal dynamics in emerging economies, the study emphasizes the role of tax composition in shaping revenue stability. The empirical analysis relies on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Unit root tests are first conducted to determine the stochastic properties of the series, followed by model identification, estimation, and diagnostic validation. The results indicate that all tax series are integrated of order one, suggesting persistent shocks and long-lasting effects. The findings also reveal heterogeneous dynamic patterns across tax instruments: personal income tax is sensitive to short-term fluctuations, corporate income tax exhibits dynamics consistent with a highly cyclical tax base, while value added tax displays greater stability due to its broader base. These results highlight the central role of fiscal structure in shaping revenue resilience. The paper contributes to the literature by showing that fiscal performance depends not only on the level of taxation, but also on the stochastic behavior and dynamic properties of its components.
    Keywords: revenue volatility, fiscal shocks, tax composition, cyclical dynamics, fiscal resilience, fiscal resilience cyclical dynamics revenue volatility fiscal shocks tax composition C22 H21 H23 E62
    Date: 2026–05–29
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05637487

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