nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2026–05–18
nineteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi, Université d’Ottawa


  1. What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy By Lutz Kilian; Michael D. Plante; Alexander W. Richter
  2. Female Labor Force Participation in the Middle East and North Africa: Regional Trends and Lessons from Saudi Arabia By Koettl, Johannes; Gomez Tamayo, Sofia; Alrayess, Dana; Fostier de Moraes, Gael
  3. Social Protection for All: Opportunities and Challenges for Inclusive Societies in the Middle East and North Africa By Aomar Ibourk
  4. Middle East geopolitical risk modestly affects inflation and inflation expectations By Isaiah Spellman; Xiaoqing Zhou
  5. Capitalism at home: labor and revolution in two Egyptian novels By Taha, Mai; Salem, Sara
  6. FROM INFORMAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP TO INCLUSIVE FORMAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI): BENCHMARKING AND PROSPECTS FOR MOROCCO By Hicham El Barouni; Jamila Ayegou
  7. THE IMPACT OF FISCAL EQUALISATION ON REGIONAL INEQUALITIES: THE CASE OF MOROCCO By Ayoub Bourass; Naima Aba
  8. Reconfiguring the Moroccan Agricultural Model: A Systemic and Paradoxical Exploration By Abdelmonim Amachraa
  9. L'intelligence artificielle et la transformation de la fonction RH : une étude qualitative auprès des femmes du secteur automobile à Tanger By Amina Chandad; Mohamed Amine Benchekroun; Mostafa Abakouy
  10. Between Drought and Floods: Capitalizing on Extremes for Agricultural Resilience By Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub
  11. Scenarios for electricity subsidy reform in the state of Kuwait By Alhajraf, Salem
  12. Before The Crisis: Lessons From Iraq’s Pre-ISIS Economy[1] By Eduardo Amaral Haddad; Inácio F. Araújo; Geoffrey J.D. Hewings
  13. Paradoxe de la modernisation : l’impératif d’un choc de compétences pour réussir les transitions numériques, verte et innovante. Preuves empiriques basées sur l'Enquête Entreprises 2023. By Aomar Ibourk; Karim El Aynaoui
  14. Réduction du gaspillage de l’eau et régulation de son mésusage: deux impératifs de la lutte contre le stress hydrique au Maroc By Henri-Louis Védie
  15. Réduction du gaspillage de l’eau et régulation de son mésusage: deux impératifs de la lutte contre le stress hydrique au Maroc By Henri-Louis Védie
  16. Entre sécheresse et crues : capitaliser sur les extrêmes pour la résilience agricole By Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub
  17. Climate vulnerability at the household level: A behaviorally informed index and its application to refugees in Jordan By Piero Ronzani; Wolfgang Stojetz; Sarah Fenzl; Siwar Hakim
  18. Authority Figures and the Polarization of Gender Norms By Ali Abboud; Samuel Bazzi; Serena Canaan; Antoine Deeb; Pierre Mouganie
  19. Financing Sustainable Reconstruction of Gaza By Hafez Ghanem; Liel Maghen

  1. By: Lutz Kilian; Michael D. Plante; Alexander W. Richter
    Abstract: The ongoing military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has raised concerns about a major disruption of global oil supplies driven by geopolitical events. This conflict has involved attacks on oil infrastructure in neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
    Keywords: oil
    Date: 2026–03–20
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:102957
  2. By: Koettl, Johannes (World Bank); Gomez Tamayo, Sofia (World Bank); Alrayess, Dana (World Bank); Fostier de Moraes, Gael (Inter-American Development Bank)
    Abstract: Female labor force participation (FLFP) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remains the lowest globally, averaging just 19% in 2023 compared to a global average of 48%. Social norms, care responsibilities, restrictive legal frameworks, skills mismatches, and limited access to supportive infrastructure continue to act as barriers for women’s economic engagement. This paper examines the structural drivers behind these gaps and highlights the region’s heterogeneity in barriers, outcomes, and reform trajectories. The paper highlights Saudi Arabia as a case of rapid transformation. Between 2017 and 2023, FLFP more than doubled following legal reforms, deployment of active labor market programs, and effective communication initiatives. Key drivers of Saudi Arabia’s experience include expanded private-sector demand, sectoral diversification, and the correction of misperceived norms regarding women’s employment. The paper also identifies remaining constraints for Saudi Arabia, including childcare gaps, mobility barriers, and public-private employment preferences and proposes policy recommendations for MENA countries, including legal reforms, care-economy investments, flexible work arrangements, and norm-changing interventions.
    Keywords: Female Labor Force participation, gender and labor markets, Middle East and North Africa, labor market reforms, Saudi Arabia
    JEL: J08 J16 J21 J22 O53
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18632
  3. By: Aomar Ibourk
    Abstract: This paper was published as a book chapter in “The Economic Potential of Islamic Countries, Part B: Sustainability, Governance, Energy and Digital Transformation, ” released by Emerald Publishing. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed significant deficiencies within social protection systems worldwide, especially in Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. This underscores the urgent need to fortify these social protection schemes to ensure resilience in the face of crises (Saoudi & Sarbib, 2023). Robust social safety nets played a pivotal role in mitigating the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, emphasizing the importance of well-established mechanisms in supporting vulnerable populations during times of turmoil. This highlights the imperative for nations to cultivate and enhance their social protection systems, and to ensure they are capable of effectively safeguarding citizens amidst crises, thereby promoting resilience and facilitating equitable economic development (IMF, 2022).
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pbsao_26
  4. By: Isaiah Spellman; Xiaoqing Zhou
    Abstract: While hostilities between Iran and Israel ended quickly in June 2025 without a major oil supply disruption, it is worthwhile to explore the impact on inflation and inflation expectations if this geopolitical event had turned out differently.
    Keywords: energy; inflation; international economics
    Date: 2025–08–21
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:101537
  5. By: Taha, Mai; Salem, Sara
    Abstract: Histories of capitalism in Egypt and the broader postcolonial world have much to gain from theorizing the home as a space of labor and care as a form of work. In this article the authors think with two Egyptian novels—The Open Door by Latifa al-Zayyat and Dhat by Sonallah Ibrahim—that center intimacy, care, and the home in their understandings of political and economic change. Representing both a revolutionary and a counterrevolutionary moment in Egypt, the two novels engage revolutionary politics through the lens of what they feel like, highlighting the affective nature of such moments. Moreover, centering the home as a space from which to theorize capitalism shows that social reproduction has always been part of the story of modern Egypt, and that the home has always been a political space, despite its haunting absence in work on capitalism in Egyptian history. When the home and what it feels like become a starting theoretical point, the functioning of capitalism becomes entangled with care work and the depletion that often comes with it. The authors trace this through both novels, addressing how one might theorize global capitalism through the home, through the novel, and through the past.
    Keywords: Egypt; capitalism; social reproduction; revolution
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2026–04–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129610
  6. By: Hicham El Barouni (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)); Jamila Ayegou (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar))
    Abstract: L'informalité est une réalité complexe qualifiée par les auteurs parfois de sortie, parfois d'exclusion. Au-delà d'un débat aussi divers qu'il soit sur ce phénomène, une réalité est marquante ; ce qui était au début considéré comme un travail informel temporaire de subsistance s'est développé en une sorte d'entrepreneuriat dit informel illustrant ainsi la théorie de Fields (1990) du passage d'un segment inférieur à un segment supérieur dans l'exercice de l'informalité. Des actions et des politiques ont été préconisé par les institutions internationales et les organismes nationaux pour formaliser cet entrepreneuriat dans un esprit gagnant-gagnant
    Keywords: informality, informal entrepreneurship, formalization policies, AI, inclusive entrepreneurship, I, entrepreneuriat inclusif, IA, politiques de formalisation, entrepreneuriat informel, Informalité
    Date: 2026–03–16
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05564548
  7. By: Ayoub Bourass (Hassan II University of Casablanca, Morocco.); Naima Aba (Hassan II University of Casablanca, Morocco.)
    Abstract: This study examines the relationship between fiscal equalisation and regional inequality in Morocco over the period 2017–2022, using a simultaneous equation model and data covering the country's twelve regions. During this time, Morocco implemented various intergovernmental fiscal transfer mechanisms intended to address spatial disparities and promote balanced regional development. The analysis, estimated using OLS, 2SLS, and GMM methods, reveal that existing equalisation policies have not substantially reduced territorial inequalities. On the contrary, fiscal transfers appear to disproportionately benefit more economically and administratively efficient regions – such as Casablanca-Settat, whilst disadvantaged and peripheral areas continue to lag. These findings suggest structural limitations in the current allocation criteria, which may inadvertently reinforce regional imbalances. To improve equity and cohesion, future reforms should aim to redesign equalisation frameworks, taking into account the structural needs and development capacities of larginalized regions.
    Keywords: fiscal decentralisation, intergovernmental fiscal transfer, regional inequalities, fiscal equalisation, territorial disparity
    Date: 2026–03–23
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05565085
  8. By: Abdelmonim Amachraa
    Abstract: This paper examines the complexities of the Moroccan agricultural model from a systemic and paradoxical viewpoint. It highlights the fundamental contradiction facing Moroccan agriculture: balancing export-driven growth and global competitiveness with rising ecological challenges and social inequalities, especially amid increasing water scarcity. Despite a strong export performance, Morocco’s agricultural sector remains fragile because of environmental and social vulnerabilities worsened by climate change and resource limitations. By reviewing national policy development and analyzing the tensions between economic, social, and environmental domains, this study proposes an integrative governance framework grounded in paradox theory. Using case studies from key value chains, including fertilizers, fruits and vegetables, sugar, and wheat, the research underscores the need for systemic governance, and questions the traditional techno-economic model. The findings indicate that Morocco’s agricultural transformation must align with broader global trends in industry, technology, and geopolitics. Policies should aim to balance strategic sovereignty with global integration and ecological transitions. The paper emphasizes that Morocco’s strategic assets, including its advantageous position in agricultural inputs and its emerging scientific ecosystem, can support necessary advancements in the agri-food sector, ultimately fostering a systemic model that combines economic prosperity and national sovereignty.
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaagr:pp_08-26
  9. By: Amina Chandad (ENCGT - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion de Tanger - UAE - Abdelmalek Essaadi University [Tétouan] = Université Abdelmalek Essaadi [Tétouan]); Mohamed Amine Benchekroun (ENSIT - Ecole des Nouvelles Sciences d’ingenierie, Le Laboratoire Systemes, Controle et Decision (LSCD), Tanger, Morocco.); Mostafa Abakouy (ENCGT - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion de Tanger - UAE - Abdelmalek Essaadi University [Tétouan] = Université Abdelmalek Essaadi [Tétouan])
    Abstract: L'intelligence artificielle (IA) transforme profondément la fonction ressources humaines (RH), suscitant opportunités et défis éthiques. Cette étude qualitative explore comment les femmes cadres RH et superviseures du secteur automobile à Tanger (Maroc) vivent cette transformation. Vingt entretiens semi-directifs ont été conduits auprès de professionnelles de quatre équipementiers (Lear, Fujikura, Aptiv, Tenneco). L'analyse thématique via NVivo révèle cinq thèmes majeurs : efficience administrative ambivalente, reconfigurations des rôles RH, tensions éthiques et équité algorithmique, dimensions genrées (empowerment vs invisibilisation), et stratégies d'appropriation. Les résultats montrent que l'IA améliore l'efficacité administrative mais génère des tensions entre automatisation et jugement humain contextuel. Les femmes développent des stratégies d'adaptation variées, entre adoption tactique et résistance éthique. Cette recherche enrichit le cadre Digital HRM en y intégrant les dimensions genrées et contextuelles marocaines, et souligne l'importance d'une gouvernance participative de l'IA centrée sur l'humain. Elle appelle à valoriser la sensibilité éthique genrée comme ressource organisationnelle pour une transformation RH plus équitable et durable.
    Keywords: Intelligence artificielle Digital HRM Transformation RH Genre et travail Industrie automobile Maroc Digital Object Identifier (, Intelligence artificielle, Digital HRM, Transformation RH, Genre et travail, Industrie automobile, Maroc Digital Object Identifier (
    Date: 2026–03–19
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05565007
  10. By: Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub
    Abstract: After more than seven years of drought, Morocco experienced exceptionally abundant rainfall during the winter of 2025-2026, reflecting increasingly marked water variability. This rapid alternation between chronic deficits and occasional excesses reveals the country's water paradox: a system historically centered on scarcity must now manage concentrated and intense extreme episodes. Hydraulic infrastructures helped limit human and economic impacts and ensured significant replenishment of water reserves. Nevertheless, some agricultural areas suffered localized losses affecting crops, forage stocks, livestock and value-chain logistics, exposing structural vulnerabilities. At the same time, groundwater recharge and improved dam filling rates create favorable prospects for upcoming agricultural seasons. These events underline the need to progressively adjust the hydraulic model to integrate excess water management and strengthen agricultural resilience and food security in the face of increasing climatic variability.
    Date: 2026–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb11_26_1
  11. By: Alhajraf, Salem
    Abstract: Kuwait ranks as the 10th largest exporter of crude oil, holding 7% of the world’s proven oil reserves, which are estimated at 101.5 billion barrels. Additionally, it is 30th in terms of gas reserves, with 1, 784 billion cubic meters. The oil industry plays a vital role in Kuwait’s economy, accounting for approximately 90% of government revenue and 95% of total exports. A significant portion of the annual fiscal budget is dedicated to covering wages and subsidies, which together account for over 80% of the 2024–25 fiscal budget. Over the past 15 years, accumulated subsidies have reached $213 billion (KD 65.2 billion), with energy subsidies comprising nearly 54% of this total. This study proposes three scenarios for reforming electricity subsidies in the residential sector, which accounts for 34% of annual electricity demand. The findings suggest that reforming electricity subsidies in this sector could lead to substantial savings for the Ministry of Electricity and Water Resources and Engineering (MEWRE) budget without negatively affecting lowto mid-income families. The recovery of annual fuel costs is projected to range from 30% to 63%, depending on the reform scenario implemented, compared to only a 6% recovery rate under the current subsidy policy. The study concludes with several policy recommendations for a fair and equitable reform of electricity subsidies in the residential sector and suggests expanding the research to include other consumer sectors, such as investment, commercial and industrial sectors.
    JEL: R14 J01 E6 N0
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138303
  12. By: Eduardo Amaral Haddad; Inácio F. Araújo; Geoffrey J.D. Hewings
    Abstract: Iraq is dependent on oil, but this dependence is felt unevenly. In 2013, oil accounted for nearly half of GDP, over 90% of exports, and almost all fiscal revenues, but less than 2% of jobs; benefits from oil were concentrated in Basra and Baghdad, and among wealthier households. Regional disparities are deep-rooted. The MRSAM shows that most governorates rely heavily on spillovers from Baghdad and Basra, with weak local absorptive capacity to translate income into growth. Distributional effects are regressive. Oil revenues primarily benefit capital owners and high-income households, leaving poorer households and labor with marginal gains, unless supported by redistributive policies. Policy action is critical. Iraq must use oil wealth to diversify its economy, build local capacity, strengthen social protection, and manage spatial inequalities. These challenges are technical but also deeply political.
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb14_26
  13. By: Aomar Ibourk; Karim El Aynaoui
    Abstract: Le Maroc s’est engagé avec détermination dans une trajectoire de modernisation fondée sur la transition numérique, la transition verte et l’innovation. Ces dynamiques sont devenues des leviers stratégiques pour la compétitivité, l’attractivité et la création d’emplois à forte valeur ajoutée. Pourtant, l’analyse des données microéconomiques récentes révèle un paradoxe préoccupant : les entreprises les plus modernisées, moteurs de la croissance de demain, rencontrent les plus grandes difficultés à recruter. Ce constat suggère que le principal frein à la transformation productive du pays est fondamentalement capacitaire. S'il ne faut pas occulter l'interaction de ce défi avec d'autres facteurs structurels — tels que la taille des entreprises, l'accès au financement ou les impératifs de productivité —, la montée en gamme des entreprises augmente si fortement les exigences en compétences que l’offre de formation peine à suivre. Cette situation fragilise la soutenabilité des transitions et la création d’emplois durables, créant une vulnérabilité spécifique pour les PME : ces dernières, souvent prises en étau par des ressources limitées, affichent une faible capacité interne de formation qui entrave leur mise à niveau technologique. L’objectif du présent travail est de diagnostiquer ce déficit de compétences et d’identifier les leviers prioritaires pour aligner les politiques de formation sur les besoins réels de l’économie. L’analyse repose sur les micro-données de l’Enquête Entreprises 2023 de la Banque mondiale et adopte une segmentation entre les « Entreprises Pionnières » (76, 3 % de l’échantillon) et les « Entreprises Traditionnelles » (23, 7 %). Les résultats confirment l’existence d’une tension sélective : le manque de main-d’œuvre qualifiée est cité comme un obstacle majeur par 33, 3 % des entreprises pionnières, contre 20 % pour les entreprises traditionnelles. Pour les entreprises les plus innovantes, ce manque de compétences est une contrainte bien plus sévère (44, 1 %) que les régulations du Code du travail (15, 7 %). Le blocage est donc humain avant d’être juridique. Face à ces tensions, le secteur privé tente de réagir. Toutefois, les taux globaux de formation formelle (entre 10 % et 12 % pour les segments les plus dynamiques) restent extrêmement faibles au regard de l’ampleur et de la rapidité des transitions engagées. De plus, cet effort est marqué par une polarisation stratégique : l’investissement est massivement concentré sur les profils opérationnels directement en contact avec les technologies (jusqu’à 61, 7 % dans le vert), au détriment du personnel d'encadrement, risquant ainsi de créer une fracture de compétences interne. En conclusion, l’enjeu pour le Maroc n’est plus seulement d’engager la transition, mais de la rendre soutenable en capital humain.
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb19_26
  14. By: Henri-Louis Védie
    Abstract: Ce Policy Brief est consacré aux phénomènes de gaspillage et de mésusage de l’eau: deux impératifs de la lutte contre le stress hydrique, rappelés, avec insistance, par Sa Majesté le Roi Mohammed VI dans son discours du 29 juillet 2024, à l’occasion de la célébration du 25ème anniversaire de son accession au Trône. La première partie de l’étude aborde la problématique générale du gaspillage et du mésusage des ressources en eau au Maroc. Si 88 % des ressources en eau, soit la moyenne historique, sont consommés par l’agriculture, les ménages et l’industrie se partagent les 12 % restants. Elle précise, aussi, ce qui rapproche le gaspillage et le mésusage, et ce qui les différencie. La seconde partie porte sur la lutte contre ces gaspillage et mésusage, précisant leur origine et leur diversité. À partir de l’analyse des actions et mesures en cours, elle propose des actions à mener pour en accroitre l’efficacité. Deux ont été privilégiées. Celle, tout d’abord, d’une refonte du système de tarification de l’eau, potable en particulier, qui protège les consommateurs vulnérables, tout en pénalisant les gros consommateurs. Celle, ensuite, de la généralisation du traitement des eaux usées et de leur réutilisation. Le prix de l’eau est, en effet, au cœur de la lutte contre son gaspillage et son mésusage. Les remèdes existent, nombreux et pluralistes, ayant en commun un prix élevé. Ce qui devrait permettre, en y recourant, de tourner la page, dans l’inconscient collectif, d’une eau quasi gratuite, contribuant de fait à son gaspillage.
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbagri:pb_24-26
  15. By: Henri-Louis Védie
    Abstract: Ce Policy Brief est consacré aux phénomènes de gaspillage et de mésusage de l’eau: deux impératifs de la lutte contre le stress hydrique, rappelés, avec insistance, par Sa Majesté le Roi Mohammed VI dans son discours du 29 juillet 2024, à l’occasion de la célébration du 25ème anniversaire de son accession au Trône. La première partie de l’étude aborde la problématique générale du gaspillage et du mésusage des ressources en eau au Maroc. Si 88 % des ressources en eau, soit la moyenne historique, sont consommés par l’agriculture, les ménages et l’industrie se partagent les 12 % restants. Elle précise, aussi, ce qui rapproche le gaspillage et le mésusage, et ce qui les différencie. La seconde partie porte sur la lutte contre ces gaspillage et mésusage, précisant leur origine et leur diversité. À partir de l’analyse des actions et mesures en cours, elle propose des actions à mener pour en accroitre l’efficacité. Deux ont été privilégiées. Celle, tout d’abord, d’une refonte du système de tarification de l’eau, potable en particulier, qui protège les consommateurs vulnérables, tout en pénalisant les gros consommateurs. Celle, ensuite, de la généralisation du traitement des eaux usées et de leur réutilisation. Le prix de l’eau est, en effet, au cœur de la lutte contre son gaspillage et son mésusage. Les remèdes existent, nombreux et pluralistes, ayant en commun un prix élevé. Ce qui devrait permettre, en y recourant, de tourner la page, dans l’inconscient collectif, d’une eau quasi gratuite, contribuant de fait à son gaspillage.
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb24_26
  16. By: Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub
    Abstract: Après plus de sept années de sécheresse, le Maroc a connu durant l’hiver 2025–2026 des précipitations exceptionnellement abondantes, témoignant d’une variabilité hydrique de plus en plus marquée. Cette alternance rapide entre déficit chronique et excès ponctuels révèle le paradoxe hydrique national : un système historiquement centré sur la rareté doit désormais gérer des épisodes extrêmes concentrés et intenses. Les infrastructures hydrauliques ont limité les impacts humains et économiques et assuré une reconstitution significative des réserves en eau. Néanmoins, certaines zones agricoles ont subi des pertes localisées affectant cultures, stocks fourragers, cheptel et logistique des chaînes de valeur, exposant des vulnérabilités structurelles. Parallèlement, la recharge des nappes et l’amélioration du taux de remplissage des barrages ouvrent des perspectives favorables pour les campagnes agricoles à venir. Ces événements soulignent la nécessité d’ajuster progressivement le modèle hydraulique pour intégrer la gestion des excès et renforcer la résilience agricole et la sécurité alimentaire face à une variabilité climatique croissante.
    Date: 2026–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb11_26
  17. By: Piero Ronzani; Wolfgang Stojetz; Sarah Fenzl; Siwar Hakim
    Abstract: Climate vulnerability assessments have traditionally relied on macro-level indices and physical exposure models, overlooking household-level heterogeneity and the behavioral determinants of vulnerability. To fill this gap, we develop a general, replicable Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) that measures climate vulnerability at the household level by integrating experience-based exposure, sensitivity, and behavioral adaptive capacity, including risk preferences, time preferences, climate knowledge, and observed adaptive behaviors, into the established IPCC vulnerability framework. The index classifies households into Low, Stress, Crisis, and Emergency categories of climate vulnerability based on a transparent hierarchical logic. Second, we apply this framework to the 2024 UNHCR Vulnerability Assessment Framework (VAF) in Jordan, a representative survey of the UNHCR-registered refugee population (N = 5, 164 refugee households), producing the first behaviorally informed climate vulnerability profile of a national refugee population. Approximately 40 percent of households fall into concerning vulnerability categories and roughly 10 percent are classified as Emergency, with camp-based refugees systematically more vulnerable than those in host communities. Two validation exercises comparing self-reported exposure with objective climatic indicators and benchmarking the CVI against an independent national vulnerability mapping reveal that the household-level index captures dimensions of lived climate risk invisible to aggregate assessments. These findings underscore the value of integrating micro-level and behavioral dimensions into climate vulnerability measurement to improve targeting, anticipatory action, and resilience programming for displaced populations.
    Keywords: behavioral adaptation, climate adaptation, climate vulnerability, forced displacement, heat exposure, refugees, resilience
    JEL: D81 D91 F22 I32 O15 Q54
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:454
  18. By: Ali Abboud; Samuel Bazzi; Serena Canaan; Antoine Deeb; Pierre Mouganie
    Abstract: This paper examines how authority figures in higher education shape gender norms over the long run. We exploit the random assignment of first-year students to faculty advisors at an elite university in the Middle East and combine administrative records with an alumni survey measuring gender attitudes up to 24 years later. Women assigned to female advisors adopt more egalitarian views about politics and work, while men become more conservative. These effects are strongest among religious students and in male-dominated STEM fields, where female authority is especially counter-stereotypical. The effects may persist through reinforcement, as women assigned to female advisors later sort toward female instructors and more gender-themed courses. Our results do not appear to be driven by generic exposure to successful women. Instead, they point to a distinct role for authority in transmitting gender norms: randomized exposure to high-achieving female peers has little effect, while the largest impacts come from senior and high-value-added female advisors. A simple framework combining belief updating and identity-based status threat helps explain these patterns of female empowerment and male backlash. More broadly, our findings reveal a progress paradox whereby gains in female representation in elite authority expand opportunities for women while intensifying backlash among men, thereby deepening gender polarization.
    JEL: I24 J16 J24 P00 Z12 Z13
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35174
  19. By: Hafez Ghanem; Liel Maghen
    Abstract: This Paper was originally published on mitvim.org.il. This paper argues that the reconstruction of Gaza will depend not only on the amount of funding mobilized, but on how financing is structured, governed, and anchored within a broader politi`cal context. In a setting shaped by movement restrictions and weak institutions, financial design is not neutral but shapes priorities, distributes power, and determines what can be implemented on the ground. The paper examines the key challenges that have limited the translation of financial commitments into actual projects, alongside emerging approaches that seek to address these barriers, and argues for a financial architecture that strengthens local capacity, ensures transparency, and supports long term recovery rather than reinforcing dependency and fragmentation. It contends that such an approach can only be effective if it is accompanied by a clear political horizon, including the lifting of the blockade, which will support the well-being of the local population and create the conditions to reduce risk and attract private investment.
    Date: 2026–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pbhaff_26

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