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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Imane Bouslikhane (ESCA Ecole de Management, Morocco); Azzeddine Allioui (ESCA Ecole de Management, Morocco) |
| Abstract: | At the dawn of a silent revolution in the prudential management of banking risks in Morocco, this report aims to examine the various international advances in prudential standards and their transposition to the Moroccan context, more specifically in terms of credit risk management. Using raw, real, but non-nominative data, we work together to build a scoring model to assess the credit risk of Moroccan companies. The ultimate goal is to understand how credit risk management forms the basis for effective decision-making, as well as the methodological approach to building a credit scoring model that combines theoretical rigor with the evolution of a rapidly changing regulatory environment. |
| Keywords: | Credit Risk, Credit Scoring Model, Probability of Default, Basel Committee, Bank AlMaghrib, Logistic Regression, Regulatory Framework |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0636 |
| By: | Mircea Mureșan (Member of the Academy of Scientists, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The ongoing military conflict in the Middle East represents one of the most significant turning points for the contemporary architecture of international security. The escalation of the confrontations between Hamas and Israel, which began in October 2023, has generated a complex geopolitical dynamic that goes beyond the regional framework and produces structural effects on global security. In a context characterized by strategic rivalries, proxy conflicts and competition for influence in the international system, the war in the Middle East is becoming a catalytic factor of current geopolitical transformations. The paper analyzes how the conflict influences regional stability and contributes to the reconfiguration of the global balance of power. The study examines the interaction between state and non-state actors involved in the conflict, including the role played by Iran and regional armed organizations such as Hezbollah, as well as the impact of the positioning of great powers, especially the United States, Russia and China. The research also explores three main dimensions of the transformation of global security: the risk of regional conflict expansion, the implications for international energy and trade security, and the impact on the emerging geopolitical architecture characterized by multipolar tendencies. The research results suggest that the war in the Middle East is not just a regional confrontation, but an accelerating factor in the transformation of the international security system, amplifying rivalries between great powers, energy vulnerabilities, and risks of instability in different regions of the world. In this context, the conflict becomes a defining element of the new global geopolitical configuration. |
| Keywords: | Middle East, War, Global Security, Geopolitics, Multipolarity, Regional Conflict, Energy And Energy Security, International Stability |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0638 |
| By: | Akgunduz, Yusuf Emre (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye); Cilasun, Seyit Mumin (TED University); Deryol, Ahmet (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye); Tumen, Semih (Amazon) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how lifetime inflation exposure shapes individuals' inflation expectations, perceptions, and financial behavior. Using a large individual-level dataset from Türkiye spanning 2014 to 2024, combined with detailed measures of past inflation experiences, we show that individuals who have lived through higher inflation consistently report higher expected and perceived inflation. They also respond more strongly to current inflation conditions. The effects are larger for less educated and lower income individuals. In additional analysis, we find that greater lifetime inflation exposure is associated with higher use of retail loans, especially fixed rate loans. These results highlight the persistent influence of past economic conditions on expectation formation and household decisions in an emerging economy with a history of volatile inflation. |
| Keywords: | inflation expectations, lifetime exposure, households |
| JEL: | D12 D84 D91 E03 E31 H31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18543 |