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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Murat Duran; Mustafa Erdem; Ismail Anil Talasli |
| Abstract: | [EN]In this study, two proxy indicators are constructed to reflect the monetary stance of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), using market-based data. These indicators also consider the effects of macroprudential regulations and unconventional tools that influence the transmission of policy rates into market interest rates. The study uses a dataset of 24 financial indicators comprising bond returns, money market and deposit rates, interest rate spreads and data related to the loan market. With the help of these indicators, the factors that summarize the monetary and financial conditions are obtained. These factors are mapped to the Weighted Average Funding Cost (WAFC), which reflects the cost of liquidity provided by the CBRT. As a result, two alternative indicators that reflect the monetary policy stance are developed. The first indicator utilizes all the dataset and presents a broader perspective by incorporating market expectations. The second indicator relies only on short-term variables. Therefore, it mostly reflects the current monetary policy and market conditions. Both indicators are more aligned with the WAFC between the forecast period of 2005- 2017. However, in the following years, some divergences were observed between these indicators and the WAFC. These divergences provide valuable information for understanding the effects of market expectations, regulatory measures and changing financial conditions on monetary policy. This method provides a powerful and flexible tool for analyzing the real impact of monetary policy during periods when the headline policy rate is insufficient to reflect the monetary stance. [TR] Bu calismada, Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi’nin para politikasinin durusunu yansitmak uzere piyasa verileri kullanilarak iki faiz gostergesi (proxy) olusturulmustur. Bu gostergeler, politika faizinin piyasa faizlerine aktarimini etkileyen makro ihtiyati duzenlemeler ve geleneksel olmayan araclarin etkisini de dikkate almaktadir. Calismada, tahvil getirileri, para piyasasi ve mevduat faizleri, faiz farklari ve kredi piyasasina iliskin verilerden olusan 24 finansal gosterge kullanilmistir. Bu gostergeler yardimiyla, parasal ve finansal kosullari ozetleyen faktorler elde edilmistir. Bu faktorler, TCMB'nin sagladigi likiditenin ortalama maliyetini yansitan Agirlikli Ortalama Fonlama Maliyeti (AOFM) ile iliskilendirilmistir. Boylece, para politikasi durusunu yansitan alternatif iki gosterge gelistirilmistir. Gostergelerden ilki, tum verileri kullanmakta ve piyasa beklentilerini kapsayan daha genis bir bakis acisi sunmaktadir. Ikinci gosterge ise sadece kisa vadeli verilere dayanmaktadir. Bu nedenle, mevcut para politikasi uygulamalarini ve piyasa kosullarini yansitmaktadir. Her iki gosterge de tahmin donemi olan 2005–2017 yillari arasinda AOFM ile daha yuksek uyum gostermektedir. Ancak sonraki yillarda bu gostergeler ile AOFM arasinda bazi ayrismalar gozlenmektedir. Bu ayrismalar, piyasa beklentilerinin, duzenleyici tedbirlerin ve degisen finansal kosullarin para politikasina olan etkilerini anlamak acisindan degerli bilgiler sunmaktadir. Bu yontem, manset politika faizinin parasal durusu yansitmakta yetersiz kaldigi donemlerde para politikasinin gercek etkisini analiz etmek icin guclu ve esnek bir arac saglamaktadir. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2602 |
| By: | Emre Akusta |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the impacts of exchange rate and inflation on exports in Turkiye. Annual data for the period 1995-2023 were used in the analysis. The Johansen cointegration analysis and Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) method were employed in the study. Identifying the cointegration relationship enabled the estimation of the long-run coefficients. The results show that an increase in the real effective exchange rate (appreciation of the Turkish lira) and inflation reduce exports with coefficients of -0.185 and -0.125, respectively. Foreign direct investment and imports, added to the study as control variables, have a positive impact on exports with coefficients of 0.117 and 0.849, respectively. These findings indicate that exchange rate stability and inflation control are priorities for improving foreign trade performance. Furthermore, policies that increase foreign direct investment and strategically manage imports complement this process. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.12991 |
| By: | Krafft, Caroline; Armas Montalvo, Carmen |
| Abstract: | High rates of unemployment and non-participation in the labor market are often attributed to labor market mismatch. This paper examines the mismatch between job seekers' expectations and Egypt's labor market realities. For the non-employed, analyses examine reservation wages and what occupations the unemployed would accept. For the employed, analyses explore skills and educational attainment relative to the skill and educational requirements of their jobs. The results demonstrate that the non-employed generally have reasonable wage expectations and are willing to accept public sector jobs, but these jobs, and to some degree formal private sector jobs, are not readily available. The non-employed, and especially women, are less likely to accept more readily available informal private sector employment. As a result of women being more selective in what employment they accept, among the employed, women's skills and qualifications better match their job requirements than men's, although overeducation and over-skill are substantial issues for both men and women. There are not differences in overeducation by vocational secondary specialization or among most higher education specializations, suggesting a pervasive problem of mismatch throughout the education system. |
| Keywords: | Mismatch, labor markets, education, skills, unemployment, reservation wages, Egypt |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J24 J31 J64 I21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1739 |
| By: | Teagan Hood |
| Abstract: | Learning continuity and engaging young people in supportive schooling environments are often overlooked in research, policy and aid sector responses to displacement. With increasing numbers of long-term displaced people, states and families must consider long-term planning for young people. This paper contributes to the understanding of household factors that influence whether a young person of school age displaced from Syria to Lebanon in 2010-2016 was in school or not by quantitatively analysing survey data collected by the World Bank in 2015-16. The head of household’s (HoH) years of education was shown to have the greatest effect with each additional year of HoH schooling increasing the likelihood the youth was in school by 11.5-14.8 per cent. The length of displacement increased the likelihood of the youth being in school by 1.6-2.1 percent per additional month the HoH had been in Lebanon. An increase in the HoH’s exposure to violence in Syria pre-displacement decreased the likelihood the youth was in school by 1.9-2.1 per cent. Pre-displacement socio-economic factors did not have a statistically significant effect, though this is likely due to imperfect measures. These results support identification of at-risk displaced youths in host countries to support more effective learning continuity strategies and targeted engagement in the education system. |
| Keywords: | basic education, conflict, displacement, education, equity, lebanon, opportunities, parent, policy, refugee, syria |
| JEL: | I24 I25 I26 I28 I38 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:453 |
| By: | Diwan, Ishac |
| Abstract: | Six years into Lebanon's crisis, national income has declined to half its potential, necessitating urgent reforms to restore economic growth. The situation is complicated by the interconnected issues of banking sector restructuring, public debt, and currency stability (Diwan and Chaoul, 2023). The current Government is addressing these challenges head on with recent legislative actions, including a law to lift bank secrecy and a banking restructuring law nearing completion (IMF, 2025). A third piece, the "Gap Law, " aims to redistribute over $70 billion in losses among creditors and is expected to face significant debate and opposition. This publication highlights the banking sector's restructuring within the context of Lebanon’s broader crises. It outlines key policy dilemmas and the components of the restructuring puzzle that are coming together. The challenge is to finalise each part and integrate them into a viable overall financing plan. |
| Keywords: | Banking crisis, crisis resolution, external debt, debt distress, Lebanon, investment and growth |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2518 |
| By: | Nuriye Melisa Bilgin; Gianmarco Ottaviano |
| Abstract: | We study how digital infrastructure relaxes constraints on the diffusion and economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI). Using administrative data and a nationally representative enterprise survey from Turkey (2021-2024), we document significant disparities in AI adoption. Adoption is concentrated among large firms and in regions with high-speed broadband and proximity to data centers, particularly for software-intensive and cloud-based applications. To identify causal effects, we exploit the staggered expansion of Turkey's national natural gas pipeline network, which serves as a conduit for fiber-optic deployment. Because pipeline routing is determined by energy distribution priorities rather than digital demand, it provides plausibly exogenous variation in connectivity. Difference-in-differences estimates show that improved connectivity significantly increases AI adoption, particularly for software-intensive technologies and among small and medium-sized enterprises. Instrumental-variable estimates indicate that infrastructure-driven AI adoption raises labor productivity and export intensity while shifting labor composition toward ICT-related roles. These findings highlight digital infrastructure as a primary determinant of both the pace of AI diffusion and its resulting economic returns. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, broadband, technology diffusion, firm productivity, cloud computing |
| Date: | 2026–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2172 |
| By: | Okan Akarsu; Abdurrahman B. Aydemir; Muhammet Enes Cirakli; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the labor market consequences of the devastating February 2023 Kahramanmaraþ earthquakes in Türkiye at the individual level. We combine firm-level financial statements with matched employer–employee data and track workers over a five-year period spanning both the pre- and post-disaster years. Causal effects are identified using a difference-in-differences strategy complemented by an event-study design. The results show that the earthquakes increased labor market exits by 2.5 percentage points, prolonged exits by 3 percentage points, and inter-provincial job transitions by 2 percentage points, while reducing annual wage growth of affected workers by 2.6 percent. Labor market impacts vary across worker and firm characteristics and intensify with earthquake severity. Losses were more pronounced among workers in smaller firms, in lower-wage jobs, and with less experience, as well as among women overall. By contrast, construction workers and inter-provincial movers saw relative gains. We also find sharper employment and wage declines among workers in high-leverage firms, rural areas, and sectors more likely to be affected by post-disaster demand conditions, highlighting key mechanisms behind differences in labor market resilience. |
| Keywords: | Earthquake, Labor market, Wages, Migration, Matched employer-employee data, Difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | J21 J31 R11 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2607 |
| By: | Maravall Buckwalter, Laura; Basco Mascaro, Sergi; Domènech Feliu, Jordi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how export-oriented settler agriculture shaped the spatial distribution of indigenous populations in colonial Algeria. By the early twentieth century, Algeria had become one of the world's largest wine producers and the principal supplier of wine to metropolitan France. We construct a commune-level panel dataset combining census measures of theindigenous population with indicators of viticultural intensity derived from agricultural reports. Exploiting variation in early exposure to viticulture across communes, we show that indigenous population growth became increasingly concentrated in high-viticulture areas from the late 1920s onward, with divergence intensifying during the Great Depression. This pattern is consistent with in-migration driven by the relatively continuous labor demand of viticulture -unlike more seasonal crops- followed by reduced outward mobility as alternative employment opportunities contracted. These findings indicate persistent spatial differences in population growth across communes. This study provides systematic quantitative evidence linking the labor demands of settler monoculture to the spatial concentration of indigenous populations in colonial Algeria. |
| Keywords: | Colonial Algeria; Viticulture; Population growth; Internal migration; Labor demand; Settler economies |
| Date: | 2026–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:49839 |
| By: | Mehmet Selman Colak; Mehmet Emre Samci |
| Abstract: | Households in many emerging economies hold substantial alternative assets such as gold and cryptocurrencies, yet macro effects from these assets are difficult to explore due to measurement challenges. Exploiting Türkiye’s cross-provincial heterogeneity in gold saving and the exogenous 2023-2025 global gold rally, we study how gold wealth transmits to the housing market. Using a province-level administrative dataset within a novel approach to proxy the formal and informal gold tendency and a difference-in-differences (DID) design, we show that house prices rise significantly more in high-gold provinces, with an average 10% cumulative additional price increase due to the wealth effects from gold. Mechanism tests indicate a liquidity channel: the cash-purchase share increases, while credit-financed transactions do not. At the same time, secondary market sales fall, consistent with strengthened homeowner balance sheets tightening resale supply. A Bartik-style instrumental variable (IV) strategy based on passive gains supports causality. The findings highlight that alternative saving instruments can fuel real asset inflation through cash, suggesting that monetary and macroprudential policy frameworks focused solely on credit flows may miss important pressures in inflationary environments. |
| Keywords: | Gold, Cryptocurrencies, DID, Wealth effects, House prices, IV strategy |
| JEL: | C36 D12 E21 E26 E31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2606 |