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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | altug, sumru; barakat, majdy; Dagher, Leila; uluceviz, erhan |
| Abstract: | Despite its small size, Lebanon’s chronic crises send financial shockwaves across the Middle East and North Africa. This column uses a Twitter-based index of economic policy uncertainty to track Lebanon’s instability and shows that it transmits financial shocks to seven MENA economies, with spillovers are strongest for Egypt, Jordan, and smaller Gulf states. Real-time policy uncertainty signals can help regional policymakers and investors manage risk and improve financial resilience. |
| Keywords: | lebanon; economic policy uncertainty; connectedness; twitter-based index |
| JEL: | C4 E2 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128302 |
| By: | Ghita El Hanche (ENCGT - École Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion de Tanger, UPN - Université Paris Nanterre); Tahar El Qour (ENCGT - École Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion de Tanger) |
| Abstract: | Déclaration de divulgation : L'auteur n'a pas connaissance de quelconque financement qui pourrait affecter l'objectivité de cette étude. |
| Keywords: | image-pays, nation branding, mégaévénements sportifs, Maroc sports diplomacy, national image, mega-sporting events, Morocco, soft power, diplomatie sportive, diplomatie sportive soft power image-pays nation branding mégaévénements sportifs Maroc sports diplomacy soft power national image nation branding mega-sporting events Morocco |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05536970 |
| By: | Ali Fakih (Lebanese American University); Sara Kassab (Concordia University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the gender pay gap among young people aged 15-29 in Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine. Using data from the 2021 Labor Force Surveys (LFS) of the three countries, the analysis explores the factors influencing wages for both young men and women and estimates the extent of the gender pay gap. We use the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition to identify the portion of the wage gap due to observable characteristics versus discrimination. To further understand how the gap changes across the income distribution, we apply Melly's (2005, 2006) quantile decomposition, analyzing wage disparities from the 10th to the 90th percentile. The results of this study reveal a positive correlation between youth wages and factors such as higher educational attainment and professional experience. The findings also reveal a significant gender pay gap favoring male youth in Egypt and Palestine, with Egypt showing the largest disparity. In Jordan, the gap is minimal and statistically insignificant, with female youth slightly out-earning male youth on average. However, the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition across all countries, including Jordan, demonstrates a significant positive discrimination effect, indicating that disparities persist due to discrimination even after adjusting for observable characteristics. Additionally, the quantile analysis uncovers “sticky floor†effects in Egypt, where the gap is larger at lower wage levels, and “glass ceiling†effects in Palestine, where disparities widen at higher income levels. Lastly, the present study provides practical recommendations to address these disparities and promote gender equality among young workers. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1800 |
| By: | Moustafa Feriga (University of East Anglia); Chahir Zaki (University of Orleans) |
| Abstract: | The informal sector is perceived as a buffer in crisis times in developing countries. Yet, it is generally characterized by low wages and high vulnerability. This paper explores how wages of informal workers react in the wake of a trade shock, with a special focus on the Egyptian case. To do so, we use worker and industry-level data for the tradeable sector from the Egyptian labor market panel survey between 1998 and 2006, a period during which Egypt experienced a significant trade liberalization wave. We find a significant effect on the formality wage premium where a 1-percentage point reduction in trade protection leads to 0.45 percentage points rise, on average, in the wage differential between formal and informal workers. The effect holds under different specifications and when the exogeneity assumption of industry protection is relaxed. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1801 |
| By: | Ditta, Khaliq; Ali, Amjad; Audi, Marc |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of fiscal and monetary policy variables on foreign direct investment inflows in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which include Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, utilizing panel data spanning from 2005 to 2023. The empirical analysis employs fixed effects and estimated generalized least squares panel regression models to address cross-sectional dependence and heteroskedasticity. Our analysis finds, among the macroeconomic indicators considered, only government expenditure demonstrates a statistically significant effect on foreign direct investment inflows, with a negative coefficient that supports the "crowding-out" hypothesis. This result suggests that higher levels of government spending may displace or deter private investment, including foreign direct investment. In contrast, other variables, including gross domestic product growth, inflation, interest rate differentials, exchange rates, and tax revenue, exhibit statistically insignificant effects on foreign direct investment, though the direction of their estimated coefficients remains consistent with established theoretical perspectives. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment, Government Expenditures, Macroeconomic Stability |
| JEL: | F21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127491 |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (Philipps-Universität Marburg); Sven Fischer (Philipps-Universität Marburg) |
| Abstract: | The "Woman, Life, Freedom" (WLF) protests in Iran, ignited by Mahsa Amini’s death in 2022, marked the longest anti-government uprising since 1979, blending gendered demands with violent unrest and state repression. This study examines how exposure to violent protests affects life satisfaction. Using two representative surveys from January-February 2022 (pre-protests) and November 2022 (peak protests), we analyze 2, 256 respondents with consistent sampling methods. Using probit regressions and an instrumental variable approach with precipitation and distance from Saqqez as instruments, we measure proximity to violent events via ACLED data, treating the 'protest environment' as a composite of protests and repression. Exposure to violent protests reduces life satisfaction by 3.6 percentage points, with effects proven robust to controls. Women experience the largest declines, exceeding unemployment’s impact, while international TV viewers report amplified effects, reflecting media’s role in shaping perceptions. Mediation analysis highlights insecurity as a key mechanism. These findings underscore the WLF’s female-led nature and authoritarian setting, advancing research on gendered unrest’s societal impact. Declining life satisfaction may signal rising dissent, challenging Iran’s regime stability, bridging contentious politics and public sentiment. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1804 |
| By: | Mouzoun Zakarya (ENCG - UIT - ECOLE NATIONALE DE COMMERCE ET DE GESTION - KENITRA); Ammi Anouar (ENCG - UIT - ECOLE NATIONALE DE COMMERCE ET DE GESTION - KENITRA) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the link between financial inclusion and quality of life in Morocco using Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) on a sample of 120 individuals. Financial inclusion is analyzed through its three dimensions: access, use, and perceived quality. Results show that the first factorial dimension, explaining nearly 78% of the variance, is shaped by effective use, service quality, and education/personal development, demonstrating that inclusion depends more on appropriation than on simple access. The second dimension, representing 45% of the variance, underlines the crucial role of trust in financial institutions, where transparency and institutional relationships determine the depth of inclusion. Variables related to poverty and inequality reduction are weakly discriminant, suggesting impacts are mostly macroeconomic and long-term. The study reinforces the multidimensional nature of financial inclusion, highlighting often neglected variables such as trust and financial literacy, while stressing the need for policies focused on quality and financial education to achieve meaningful and sustainable inclusion in Morocco. |
| Abstract: | Cet article explore les liens entre inclusion financière et qualité de vie des individus au Maroc à travers l'Analyse des Correspondances Multiples (ACM) menée sur un échantillon de 120 individus. L'inclusion est étudiée selon trois dimensions principales : accès, utilisation et qualité perçue des services financiers. Les résultats montrent que la première dimension factorielle, expliquant près de 78 % de la variance, est dominée par l'utilisation des services, la perception de leur qualité et l'éducation/développement personnel, confirmant que l'inclusion repose davantage sur l'appropriation des produits que sur le seul accès. La deuxième dimension, représentant 45 % de la variance, souligne le rôle central de la confiance envers les institutions financières, essentielle pour renforcer la transparence et la relation institutionnelle. Sur le plan théorique, cette étude confirme le caractère multidimensionnel de l'inclusion et met en lumière des variables souvent négligées comme la confiance et la littératie financière, tandis que sur le plan empirique, elle insiste sur la nécessité de politiques publiques axées sur la qualité et l'éducation financière pour améliorer durablement la vie des populations. |
| Keywords: | Confiance institutionnelle, Littératie financière Financial inclusion, Quality of life, Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA), Morocco, Institutional trust, Financial literacy, Maroc, Analyse des Correspondances Multiples (ACM), Qualité de vie, Inclusion financière |
| Date: | 2025–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05451263 |
| By: | Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Halicioglu, Ferda; UZ-AKDOGAN, Idil |
| Abstract: | There is a new strand of the literature in which researchers try to test the J-curve phenomenon using trade data in services. This literature is in its infancy, and any new addition must be welcomed. We add to this literature by testing the phenomenon using quarterly data over the 2005Q1-2022Q4 period from eight Turkish service industries. The symmetric and asymmetric impacts of exchange rate changes on each service trade balance are estimated empirically by employing linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approaches to cointegration methods. Considering the two approaches to be complementary, we find support for the J-curve effect in four service industries, i.e., in insurance and pensions, transport, travel industries, and intellectual property. Thus, lira depreciation will improve the trade balance of these four industries in the long run, while short-run effects oscillate. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric J-curve, service trade, real effective exchange rates, Turkey |
| JEL: | C22 F14 F31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128292 |
| By: | Pinar Ceylan (Ghent University); K. Kivanc Karaman (Bogazici University); Sevket Pamuk (Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | Using a large body of mostly archival price data, this study examines wheat market integration across the Ottoman Empire and puts it in the context of broader European trends. We find that rates of Ottoman market integration fluctuated without a clear trend during the early modern era followed by greater international integration and geographically uneven domestic integration in the nineteenth century. Overall, Ottoman gains were slower than those in Western Europe in both periods. Our regression analysis points to the role of geography and technological and institutional changes including changes in state capacity as the main forces shaping integration patterns. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1805 |
| By: | Teresa Janz (United Nations University); Zina Nimeh (United Nations University) |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade and a half, Jordan has been facing structural challenges like rising fiscal pressures and high unemployment. In 2018, poverty stood at 15.7%, which has likely increased further due to recent economic shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In response, Jordan has scaled up its social protection system, particularly through the National Aid Fund (NAF), which administers key social assistance programmes. NAF’s Unified Cash Transfer (UCT) programme, launched in 2022, aims to alleviate poverty by providing targeted financial support to vulnerable households. This paper evaluates the short-term impact of Jordan’s UCT programme on economic outcomes, living standards, and school attendance, using administrative data from the National Unified Registry (NUR). Employing a regression discontinuity design and propensity score matching with difference-in-differences, the study examines whether the UCT alleviates vulnerability and prevents the emergence of poverty traps. While there are positive effects on household heads’ employment outcomes and children’s school enrolment, the programme shows limited success in increasing household income and asset ownership. The study also assesses the programme’s targeting mechanism and data management processes and offers recommendations for future impact evaluations that contribute to improving the effectiveness of the programme in addressing households’ socio-economic risks. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1802 |
| By: | Anda David (AFD - Agence française de développement); Jackline Wahba (University of Southampton); Rawane Yasser (AFD - Agence française de développement) |
| Abstract: | Egypt has experienced a major economic crisis since March 2022, which has had substantial impacts on food inflation and standards of living. This crisis was compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, its global implications, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For many Egyptians, international temporary migration and remittances have been coping mechanisms, allowing them to diversify their income. This paper investigates the role played by international migration as a livelihood strategy during the recent economic crisis. It highlights the trends and patterns of current overseas migration, return migration, remittances and migration intentions for the period covering the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis. The findings show that while the international emigration rate has increased, the return migration rate has substantially declined. In addition, the profile of migrants has changed as the share of low educated migrants increased, as well as the share of those holding precarious jobs prior to migrating. There results suggest that recent economic conditions in Egypt may be reshaping the patterns of Egyptian migration. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05521272 |
| By: | Koppolu, Sarath Chandra; Steinhuebel-Rasheed, Linda; Maruejols, Lucie |
| Abstract: | In this study, we pilot a workflow in Fayoum, Egypt, using freely available high-resolution imagery and an iteratively expanded, custom-labeled dataset, to explore whether small-object detection can feasibly track solar-powered irrigation adoption. If feasible, this approach can provide a low-cost, scalable foundation for evidence-based policy. Beyond mapping adoption, the method also has potential to link solar irrigation detection to environmental and agricultural outcomes, such as vegetation dynamics, cropping intensity, or water use efficiency. |
| Keywords: | irrigation; solar powered irrigation systems; monitoring systems; Egypt; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2026–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:181060 |
| By: | Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis |
| Abstract: | An economist and an economic education specialist answered questions about inflation, monetary policy tools, wage growth, and more during a Nov. 20, 2024, Q&A. |
| Date: | 2024–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:102746 |
| By: | Elhaj Mustafa Ali, Mohammed; Elias Suliman, Abdul-Hameed |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how structural economic change has influenced poverty reduction in Sudan over 1970–2022, with a particular focus on the role of sectoral composition in a fragile and conflict-affected context. The study’s objective is to assess how value added growth in agriculture, industry, and services affects poverty outcomes, measured by the headcount ratio, poverty gap, and severity index. Methodologically, the analysis constructs annual monetary poverty indices using the Foster–Greer–Thorbecke (FGT) approach, based on a lognormal distribution derived from per capita consumption and Gini coefficients, and then estimates an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to capture both short and long run effects of sectoral value added growth and key macroeconomic and demographic variables, including education, exports, inflation, population, credit access, and GDP growth. The results show that growth in agriculture and industry significantly reduces poverty in the long run, whereas the services sector exerts a weak, statistically insignificant effect. Education, access to credit, and higher inflation are associated with lower poverty levels, while population growth increases poverty, and export expansion is linked to higher poverty, reflecting the enclave nature of Sudan’s extractive export sectors. Overall, the findings underscore that inclusive structural transformation—centered on revitalizing agriculture, fostering industrial development, and reorienting services—along with complementary policies in human capital, finance, and macroeconomic management, is essential for sustainable poverty reduction in Sudan. The study thus provides new empirical evidence to inform policymakers in Sudan and other conflict affected low income economies undergoing economic transition. |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reduction, Structural Transformation, Sudan, ARDL |
| JEL: | D31 I32 O11 O14 |
| Date: | 2025–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127544 |