nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2026–01–05
four papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi, Université d’Ottawa


  1. The Impact of Board Characteristics on the Performance of Banks in the MENA Region By Dhahri, Nourhen
  2. L'impact du changement climatique sur les pays du Maghreb By ALOUANI, Ahmed
  3. Nowcasting GCC GDP: A Machine Learning Solution for Enhanced Non-Oil GDP Prediction By Greta Polo; Yuan Gao Rollinson; Ms. Yevgeniya Korniyenko; Tongfang Yuan
  4. Unlocking MENA and CCA Trade in a Fragmented World By Mr. Apostolos Apostolou; Fillipo Gori; Thomas Kroen; Salem M Nechi; Subi Suvetha Velkumar

  1. By: Dhahri, Nourhen
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of board characteristics on the variability of bank performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Based on a sample of 97 banks over the period 2016–2020, the study employed four corporate governance mechanisms to investigate their effect on two performance measures: ROA and ROE. In addition, three control variables were included to isolate the effect of corporate governance variables on bank performance. Using panel data regression, the results indicate that board size, CEO duality, and the presence of institutional directors on the board are the only corporate governance mechanisms that have a positive and significant effect on return on assets (ROA). Board size has a negative and significant effect on return on equity (ROE), while the presence of institutional directors on the board has a positive and significant impact on return on equity (ROE).
    Keywords: banks, board structure, performance, MENA
    JEL: G21 G32 G34
    Date: 2025–11–19
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126913
  2. By: ALOUANI, Ahmed
    Abstract: A global climate change is a change in the climate of the entire planet. Climate change can occur naturally (ice age) so Earth's natural climate has always changed and will continue to change. Today, climate change differs from previous changes in its speed and magnitude because the greenhouse effect is a phenomenon that will affect the Earth's temperature. Greenhouse gases, especially water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, trap the sun's heat, preventing the radiation from dissipating into space, however without these natural gases, Earth's average temperature would be -18°C. In this work, we will see what are the consequences of these climate changes on the economies of the Maghreb (Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia), in a global context. As well as the efforts to circumvent them.
    Keywords: change, Maghreb, consequences, variation, efforts
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2025–12–29
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127534
  3. By: Greta Polo; Yuan Gao Rollinson; Ms. Yevgeniya Korniyenko; Tongfang Yuan
    Abstract: This paper presents a machine learning–based nowcasting framework for estimating quarterly non-oil GDP growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Leveraging machine learning models tailored to each country, the framework integrates a broad range of high-frequency indicators—including real activity, financial conditions, trade, and oil-related variables—to produce timely, sector-specific estimates. Advancing the nowcasting literature for the MENA region, this approach moves beyond single-model methodologies by incorporating a richer set of high-frequency, cross-border indicators. It presents two key innovations: (i) a tailored data integration strategy that broadens and automates the use of high-frequency indicators; and (ii) a novel application of Shapley value decompositions to enhance model interpretability and guide the iterative selection of predictive indicators. The framework’s flexibility allows it to account for the region’s unique economic structures, ongoing reform agendas, and the spillover effects of oil market volatility on non-oil sectors. By enhancing the granularity, responsiveness, and transparency of short-term forecasts, the model enables faster, data-driven policy decisions strengthening economic surveillance and enhancing policy agility across the GCC amid a rapidly evolving global environment.
    Keywords: GCC; Nowcasting; Machine Learning; Non-oil Growth
    Date: 2025–12–19
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/268
  4. By: Mr. Apostolos Apostolou; Fillipo Gori; Thomas Kroen; Salem M Nechi; Subi Suvetha Velkumar
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on trade flows in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions. Amidst ongoing conflicts, security threats, the spike in global economic uncertainty, and evolving consumer sentiments, these regions face intricate challenges that necessitate agile policy responses. The analysis presents three illustrative scenarios, examining the effects of targeted trade restrictions, trade diversion, and neutral stances on exports and economic output. The findings of these illustrative scenarios highlight the critical importance of reducing trade barriers, enhancing infrastructure, and improving regulatory environments to navigate the risks and opportunities posed by geoeconomic fragmentation. These measures are essential for fostering resilience and promoting sustainable growth in the affected regions.
    Keywords: Geoeconomic Fragmentation; Trade DiversionTrade Policy; Infrastructure Investment Regulatory Constraints;Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA); Middle East and North Africa(MENA); Trade Barriers; Geopolitical Uncertainties
    Date: 2025–12–19
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/267

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