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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Siddig, Khalid; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Abushama, Hala; Rakhy, Tarig |
| Abstract: | Sudan faces significant challenges due to prolonged conflicts, political instability, and economic disruptions. The ongoing conflict is disrupting market systems, exacerbating price volatility, and limiting the availability of essential commodities. Supply chain disruptions, insecurity, and infrastructure damage often restrict market access and contribute to rising food and fuel costs. In conflict-affected areas, transportation and security challenges intensify price disparities, making staple foods and key agricultural inputs increasingly unaffordable, especially for vulnerable populations. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is conducting a comprehensive market monitoring initiative across Sudan’s 18 states, tracking the prices and assessing the availability and quality of essential commodities, observing changes in exchange rates, and gathering qualitative insights from market actors. This report provides an overview of market trends in Sudan during February 2025. It will be updated monthly. |
| Keywords: | commodities; prices; market economies; shock; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:174297 |
| By: | Siddig, Khalid; Rakhy, Tarig; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw |
| Abstract: | This report presents an overview of trends in prices, availability, and quality of key commodities, while also capturing traders’ perceptions of supply, demand, and market conditions in Sudan between February and August 2025. |
| Keywords: | capacity development; commodities; demand; economics; trade; supply; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:176817 |
| By: | Siddig, Khalid; Rakhy, Tarig Alhaj; Mohamed, Shima; Abushama, Hala; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw |
| Abstract: | This report analyzes market dynamics in Sudan between February and July 2025, focusing on prices, availability, quality, fuel, exchange rates, and traders’ perceptions of supply, demand, profits, and market conditions. Between February and July 2025, Sudan’s markets showed mixed trends and sharp regional disparities. Cereal prices were mostly stable: wheat held steady with a short rise in early July, sorghum increased in June then stabilized, millet fluctuated slightly, and wheat flour fell in early July before rising sharply. Wheat and wheat flour availability improved, while sorghum and millet availability declined marginally. |
| Keywords: | commodities; prices; market economies; shock; capacity development; supply chain disruptions; fuels; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:176512 |
| By: | Siddig, Khalid; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Mohamed, Shima; Abushama, Hala; Rakhy, Tarig |
| Abstract: | This report presents an overview of trends in prices, availability, and quality of key commodities in Sudan during February, March, and April 2025. It covers cereals, vegetables, animal products, and essential goods such as cooking oil, sugar, agricultural inputs (fertilizers and seeds), fuels, and exchange rates. The analysis reveals notable spatial and temporal disparities in prices, availability, and quality across Sudan’s 18 states. Cereal prices showed mixed patterns: wheat prices rose from February to March before declining in April, while sorghum and millet prices fluctuated. Wheat flour prices remained relatively stable. Spatial disparities were particularly evident for wheat and wheat flour. Traders consistently reported stable availability and quality for most cereals. Vegetable prices varied significantly. Tomato prices remained stable, potato prices were consistently higher than other vegetables, and onion prices declined steadily before rising slightly at the end of April. Spatial and temporal differences in prices were also prominent. Meat prices continued to increase steadily, while fish prices fluctuated in line with availability. Egg prices rose gradually, while milk prices, after some initial fluctuations, declined steadily in March and April. Among agricultural inputs, wheat seed prices remained stable, whereas local sorghum seed prices rose consistently. Fertilizer prices fluctuated: urea prices experienced a modest increase fol lowed by a decline, while DAP prices rose sharply in April. Fuel prices demonstrated both temporal and spatial variability. Prices were notably higher in the parallel market, while diesel and petrol prices in the regular market were more stable, though regional differences persisted. Finally, the exchange rate analysis showed a continued premium in the parallel market, underscoring persistent foreign currency supply constraints. |
| Keywords: | commodities; prices; markets; shock; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:174764 |
| By: | Harun Tanrivermis; Monsurat Ayojimi Salami |
| Abstract: | Housing affordability has been a significant global challenge, with macroeconomic factors identified as contributors. The ongoing trend of housing unaffordability indicates that merely recognising this issue is insufficient; it necessitates the formulation of appropriate policies to tackle these challenges. This study examines the rising trend of housing unaffordability, although shelter is a fundamental amenity that should be adequately addressed. Furthermore, uncertainty inherent in the country’s economy has exacerbated the situation. This study will adopt a quantitative approach, using the housing price index as the dependent variable. Independent variables will include inflation, exchange rate, policy interest rate, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, unemployment rate, mortgage rate, age of a house, number of bedrooms, economic growth rate - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), construction permits, and money supply. The study will employ the VAR model to establish relationships between the house price index (HPI) and macroeconomic variables through shocks. The magnitude and direction of these shocks will form the basis for deriving necessary policy suggestions to address housing unaffordability in Turkey. Consequently, the findings are anticipated to pave the way for policy recommendations to overcome these challenges. |
| Keywords: | Housing Affordability; Macroeconomic variables; Turkish housing markets; VAR modelling |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_286 |
| By: | Emediegwu, Lotanna E.; Iloanugo, Uzoma; Animashaun, Jubril O. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we revisit the empirical evidence regarding the effect of variations in soil fertility on violence at local level. Recent evidence using spatial econometrics technique shows that increases in input (fertilizer) prices exacerbate income inequality and conflict, especially where soil fertility is more heterogeneous. However, when observational units are dense in physical space, they become susceptible to spatial dependence and heterogeneity. Our main contribution is methodological: we solve the foregoing issue by using local soil nutrient availability measurement to proxy soil fertility and employing spatial first differences (SFD) to investigate the effect of soil quality on local conflict. This methodology offers a framework that eliminates bias in soil quality data while accounting for spatial dependence and unobserved spatial heterogeneity. Also, we use geo-referenced data across countries within Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions at a spatial resolution of (0.5 × 0.5) degrees over a more extended period (1997 to 2022) to show that soil nutrient heterogeneity magnifies conflicts. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes025:356728 |
| By: | Ibrahim, Ammar; Mohamed, Shima; Abdel-Karim, Mohamed; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the effects of the ongoing armed conflict in Sudan on the agro-industrial sector in Khartoum state, with a focus on the wheat flour milling, edible oil, and packaging materials industries. The conflict, which started in April 2023, has led to widespread population displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and severe economic disruptions, especially in Khartoum, Sudan’s most industrialized and densely populated state. The assessment is based on a combination of primary data, including satellite imagery, site visits, technical questionnaires, and key informant interviews, and secondary sources, such as official reports. Data were collected from 15 industrial facilities located in the Khartoum North, Garri, and Soba industrial zones. These include four facilities in the wheat flour milling sector, ten in the edible oil sector, and one in the packaging materials sector. Due to security constraints and widespread infrastructure destruction, access to the industrial zones and the factories was restricted. Moreover, price volatility, inflation, and shortages of skilled labor and materials further complicated the assessment, making it difficult to accurately value the observed and reported damages and losses in these industries. Our estimate of the total estimated damages and losses across the three sectors is USD 407 million. Financial losses represent 51 percent of these losses, while about 23 percent of the losses were related to losses of inventory and 11 percent to losses of logistical and maintenance assets of the agro-businesses. The wheat flour milling sector incurred the highest overall losses. Notably, financial losses dominate across the three sectors, primarily driven by the conflict halting factory operations and disrupting supply chains. Recovery for these industries will be prolonged. In the wheat flour milling sector, the average repair timeline anticipated for bringing production buildings back into full use is 6.8 months, while for electrical systems, it is 5.7 months. Estimated repair periods for the edible oil sector are 6.0 months for oilseed handling and preparation machinery and 5.9 months for electrical systems. Expected repair periods for electrical components in the packaging materials are similarly 6.0 months, reflecting relatively similar challenges in restoring operational capacity across the three industrial sectors. Stakeholder interviews underscored the urgent need for enhanced security, improved access to financing, tax relief, and market protection. Government responses—guided by the 2024 Sudan Industrial Development Conference—have focused on deploying security forces, improving institutional coordination, and providing limited financial support to the country’s factories. However, significant implementation gaps remain, particularly in access to financing for and enforcement of regulatory measures within the industrial sector. A phased, sector-specific industrial recovery strategy is recommended that prioritizes financial recovery, inventory replenishment, and restoration of infrastructure critical to industrial production. Also needed is stronger coordination between public and private sector actors, improved access to concessional financing, and a better alignment of industrial policy with agricultural supply chains to foster long-term resilience in the agro-industrial sector. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; conflicts; agro-industry; agro-industrial sector; agricultural production; milling; processing; packaging; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:178053 |
| By: | Roudari, Soheil |
| Abstract: | Examining the spillover effects between exchange rates, stock market index, housing prices and inflation is one of the key issues in macroeconomics. This topic is particularly important in relation to Iran, which has been affected by various international sanctions for many years and has restricted the role of oil exports in the economy. Because the application of international sanctions can have a significant effect on the relationship between indicators as well as their impact and effectiveness on the investigated network, we study the effects of the dynamic spillover between the above four indices by using a TVP-VAR model that is based on Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). We have also focused on three time periods: the whole period (March 2006-January 2022), the first period of sanctions (June 2010-July 2015) and the second period of sanctions (May 2018-January 2022). The results show that in all three periods, inflation rate is the most influential indicator in the network. But these results are different in relation to the percentage of influence of these four indicators on the entire network. In the entire period and in the first period of sanctions, exchange rate volatilities have been the main channel of transmitting shocks to the network. However, in the second period of sanctions the main transmitter is inflation. According to the results, the increase in the exchange rate (devaluation of riyal) has been the most important key factor in creating destructive fluctuations in Iran’s economy, which ripples through the entire economy, affecting the stock market index, inflation rate, and housing prices. |
| Keywords: | Stock Market, Inflation, Housing, Exchange Rate, Sanction, TVP-VAR Model |
| JEL: | E31 F5 G01 |
| Date: | 2024–04–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126829 |
| By: | kilani, bochra hadj |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the evolution of citizen participation in urban planning in Tunisia following the 2011 revolution, with a focus on participatory budgeting (PB) as a transformative governance tool. Drawing on municipal case studies—including Carthage’s Annual Investment Plan—the study explores how PB fosters inclusive decision-making, enhances municipal autonomy, and institutionalizes bottomup planning practices. Tunisia’s hybrid model, inspired by German participatory frameworks, illustrates the interplay between grassroots mobilization and state-led democratization. The paper identifies key challenges to scaling participatory methodologies, including uneven implementation, limited citizen awareness, and institutional inertia. It concludes by proposing strategic pathways for embedding participatory urbanism in Tunisia’s planning infrastructure and offers comparative insights for Global South cities pursuing democratic urban reform |
| Date: | 2025–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4t6sp_v1 |
| By: | Karakoç, Ulaş |
| Abstract: | With the aid of an applied general equilibrium model, we study the macroeconomic effects of various policy alternatives to stimulate the implications of greening of Turkish agriculture. Our results suggest that the reduction in chemicals, fertilizers and oil at alternative rates of 30% and 50% would significantly reduce carbon emissions, but at the expense of adverse effects on agricultural output. In response, the negative effects on agricultural output can be reversed by a targeted investment programme that could facilitate technological change and a commensurate rationalization of the rural economy resulting in enhanced gains in agricultural productivity. We argue that the warranted funds towards such productivity enhancing investments can be earmarked by the introduction of a nation-wide carbon tax, and that they would boost not only agricultural output and rural incomes, but could also mitigate the adverse transition costs on GDP and social welfare. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Sustainability |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes025:356802 |
| By: | Aziz Can ensazl; Ece Özmen |
| Abstract: | Sustainable urban transformation emerges as a comprehensive solution to the infrastructure challenges and environmental degradations caused by industrialization and rapid urbanization, addressing economic, social, and environmental dimensions. This study analyzes the direct and indirect economic impacts of urban transformation projects, emphasizing employment creation and value increases in the construction sector and related industries. Additionally, the research highlights the contributions of green investments to price increases in the real estate market and their benefits in terms of energy efficiency and environmental sustainability. The study examines two example projects from Turkey, Piyalepaa Istanbul and WE Haliç, in detail. It was determined that these projects were developed in accordance with sustainable urban transformation principles under green building certifications such as LEED-ND and generated significant economic multiplier effects. The findings reveal that sustainable approaches provide not only environmental benefits but also long-term economic advantages. The study demonstrates that promoting green investments contributes to making cities more resilient and livable while fostering sustainable growth in the real estate market. |
| Keywords: | economic multiplier; LEED-ND; Real Estate Market; sustainable urban transformation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_178 |
| By: | Meryem Gökten (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Oliver Reiter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Neue Wege für die EU-Türkei-Wirtschaftsbeziehungen – Zollunion im Wandel? This publication is available in German language only. For a brief English summary see further below. Dieser Bericht analysiert die wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen der EU-Türkei-Zollunion und deren geopolitische Implikationen. Während das Handelsvolumen seit 1996 gestiegen ist, haben die EU und Österreich als Handelspartner an relativer Bedeutung verloren, insbesondere zugunsten Russlands und Chinas. Auch innerhalb Europas zeigen sich Verschiebungen Der Handel verlagert sich zunehmend zugunsten osteuropäischer Mitgliedstaaten, während die Beziehungen zu traditionellen westeuropäischen Partnern, insbesondere den großen Volkswirtschaften, tendenziell rückläufig sind. Spanien bildet eine Ausnahme, wo sich das Handelsvolumen aufgrund enger politischer und wirtschaftlicher Beziehungen deutlich erhöhte. Zwar hat die Zollunion den Handel insgesamt deutlich gefördert, doch ihr enger Umfang sowie insbesondere bestehende nichttarifäre Handelshemmnisse schränken das Exportpotenzial für die Mehrheit der EU-Mitgliedstaaten weiterhin ein. Neue US-Zölle und der eskalierende transatlantische Handelskonflikt erschweren zusätzlich die bilateralen Handelsbeziehungen zwischen der EU und der Türkei. Gleichzeitig öffnen sie jedoch Spielräume für eine Modernisierung. Aber die Zollunion bleibt politisch umstritten Im Laufe der Jahre haben politische Differenzen, innenpolitische Turbulenzen in der Türkei sowie der daraus resultierende stagnierende EU-Beitrittsprozess das bilaterale Verhältnis zunehmend belastet. Trotz ihrer wachsenden geopolitischen Bedeutung gilt die Türkei weiterhin als instabile Partnerin Die Verhaftung des Istanbuler Bürgermeisters Ekrem İmamoğlu und die Repressionen gegen die größte Oppositionspartei CHP haben das Vertrauen europäischer Partner weiter geschwächt, mit negativen Folgen nicht nur für die politischen Beziehungen, sondern auch für das Vertrauen von Investor innen. In vier Szenarien untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen möglicher Handelsentwicklungen auf Wohlfahrt und Handelsströme, insbesondere für die EU und die Türkei. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass eine tiefgreifende Modernisierung der Zollunion das Handelsvolumen zwischen der Türkei und der EU deutlich erhöhen und spürbare Wohlfahrtsgewinne für die Türkei erzielen, die negativen Effekte eines Handelskonflikts mit den USA für die EU aber nur sehr gering abmildern könnte. New paths for EU-Turkey economic relations – Custom Union in transition? This report analyses economic developments since the introduction of the EU–Turkey Customs Union and examines the geopolitical implications of its modernisation. While EU–Turkey trade has grown since 1996, the EU and Austria have lost market share in Turkey’s overall trade, particularly to Russia and China. Shifts are also visible within Europe trade is increasingly tilting toward Eastern European member states, while ties with traditional Western partners, especially the large economies, are gradually weakening. Spain is an exception, with trade volume increasing significantly due to its close political and economic ties with Turkey. Although the customs union has significantly promoted trade overall, its narrow scope and, in particular, existing non-tariff trade barriers continue to limit the export potential for the majority of EU member states. New US tariffs and the escalating transatlantic trade dispute are further complicating EU-Turkey trade relations. At the same time, the EU continues to conclude new FTAs, which intensifies the asymmetry of the customs union for Turkey and reinforces the need for modernisation. Yet the customs union remains politically contentious within the EU long-standing political disagreements, domestic turbulence in Turkey, and the stalled accession process have increasingly strained bilateral relations. Despite its growing geopolitical importance and the need to modernise the customs union, Turkey continues to be seen as an unstable partner. The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the crackdown on the main opposition party, the CHP, have further eroded the confidence of European partners, harming political relations as well as investor sentiment. In four scenarios, we assess how different modernisation options for the customs union would affect welfare and trade flows for the EU and Turkey. The results show that a comprehensive upgrade of the customs union could substantially increase EU-Turkey trade and deliver clear welfare gains for Turkey, but would only marginally cushion the EU from the negative effects of a trade conflict with the United States. |
| Keywords: | Zollunion, EU-Türkei-Beziehungen, berechenbares allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F50 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:ratpap:rpg:32 |
| By: | Ishak, Phoebe W. (World Bank); Aghajanian, Alia (World Bank); Ghorpade, Yashodhan (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how female participation in household decision making has been affected by the ongoing civil conflict in the Republic of Yemen in areas under the control of the Internationally Recognized Government. Using a unique survey dataset that tracks households between 2014 and 2021 and a geo-coded data on conflict, we document an increase in women’s participation in decision making since the start of the conflict, particularly on decisions related to household purchases and children’s education. This is mainly driven by households living in districts with medium intensity conflict as compared to low intensity conflict. This result holds up to a series of robustness checks and is explained by changes in household composition, whereby men are more likely to leave the household in conflict affected districts, leaving women in charge of household decisions. |
| Keywords: | conflict and fragility, decision making and poverty, Yemen, gender, female-headed households |
| JEL: | D10 D91 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18252 |
| By: | Roudari, Soheil; Ahmadian- Yazdi, Farzaneh; Namazizadeh, Ehsan; Chenarani, Hasan |
| Abstract: | This study investigates static and dynamic risk spillovers among selected assets associated with holdings affiliated with the Ministry of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare in Iran, employing the Time‑Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP‑VAR) model proposed by Antonakakis et al. (2020) during the period April 15, 2020 to April 22, 2025 . In addition, the framework of Broadstock et al. (2022) is applied to evaluate portfolio risk management efficiency, determine optimal asset weights, and compute portfolio hedge ratios based on three innovative strategies: Minimum Variance Portfolio (MVP), Minimum Correlation Portfolio (MCP), and Minimum Connectedness Portfolio (MCoP). The results reveal that Vasandogh acts as the principal transmitter and Shasta as the main receiver of volatility within the network. The analysis of cumulative portfolio returns further shows that, compared to the other two approaches, the MVP strategy delivers superior performance in optimizing cumulative returns, particularly under conditions of market instability. However, the negative dynamic cumulative returns observed in the other two strategies indicate ineffective risk management within the investment policies of the Ministry. Moreover, results related to hedge ratios demonstrate that hedging efficiency is significant only in portfolios where Shasta is included as a long‑term asset, whereas other portfolio combinations lack meaningful hedging effectiveness. Accordingly, it can be concluded that a revision of the institutional functions of the Ministry’s affiliated holdings in the financial market is essential to enhance the resilience of financial portfolios and to consider divesting loss‑making holdings as a fundamental policy priority. |
| Keywords: | Risk spillover, optimal weighting, hedging effectiveness, portfolio management, Ministry of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare |
| JEL: | G11 G14 |
| Date: | 2025–05–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126954 |
| By: | Roudari, Soheil; Ahmadian- Yazdi, Farzaneh; Namazizadeh, Ehsan; Maghsoodi, Hamidreza |
| Abstract: | Numerous studies have been conducted to explore the relationship between unemployment, inflation expectations, exchange rates, and inflation. However, the connection among these factors remains ambiguous, especially in the context of Iran's economy, where the macroeconomic structure and geopolitical situation significantly heighten its importance. In this research, the dynamics of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, considering the exchange rate, are analyzed over the period from Q1 2000 to Q4 2022 on a seasonal frequency using a Multivariate Continuous Wavelet Transform (MCWT) model across different frequencies (short-term, medium-term, and long-term). According to the findings of this study, the structure of the Phillips Curve does not align with the realities of Iran's economy. Even during periods of economic recession and expansion, a significant relationship between inflation and unemployment is sometimes absent, even in the short term. However, inflation is primarily influenced by inflation expectations and, to a lesser extent, by the exchange rate in the medium and long term. This indicates that if expectations and exchange rates are not managed, they could lead to persistent long-term inflation. Furthermore, due to price stickiness, even with successful management of exchange rates and expectations, a significant reduction in prices may remain elusive. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Unemployment, Inflationary Expectations, Exchange rate, MCWT model |
| JEL: | C65 E12 E31 |
| Date: | 2024–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126958 |
| By: | Roudari, Soheil; Maghsoodi, Hamidreza; Ahmadian- Yazdi, Farzaneh |
| Abstract: | One of the most important problems of Iran’s economy in recent decades is related to inflation and identifying its impacts and effectiveness from its determinants. Therefore, the current research investigates the interrelationship between inflation, exchange rate, current and construction expenditure of the government, and liquidity during 1384:1-1401:4 with seasonal frequency and using the TVP-VAR-SV model. The results show that increasing liquidity concerning covering the purchasing power, increasing social capital, and preventing speculative activities in the asset market is rational. On the other hand, in the current situation, it is better to not remove the subsidy of other basic commodities because it magnifies the results of the increase in current expenses and liquidity on inflation. The other critical point is the passive characteristic of liquidity in Iran’s economy. The result of its impact and effectiveness from other under-estimated indices shows that its impact is lower than its effectiveness from them. As a result, in such a situation, the implementation of a contractionary monetary policy by the central bank cannot be successful to reduce the inflation rate. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Exchange Rate, Government Current Expenditure, Government Construction Expenditure, Liquidity |
| JEL: | C32 E12 J21 |
| Date: | 2024–04–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127037 |