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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Mohammad Rashed Albous; Melodena Stephens; Odeh Rashed Al-Jayyousi |
| Abstract: | The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) raises a central question: are investments in compute infrastructure matched by an equally robust build-out of skills, incentives, and governance? Grounded in socio-technical systems (STS) theory, this mixed-methods study audits workforce preparedness across Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. We combine term frequency--inverse document frequency (TF--IDF) analysis of six national AI strategies (NASs), an inventory of 47 publicly disclosed AI initiatives (January 2017--April 2025), paired case studies, the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence (MBZUAI) and the Saudi Data & Artificial Intelligence Authority (SDAIA) Academy, and a scenario matrix linking oil-revenue slack (technical capacity) to regulatory coherence (social alignment). Across the corpus, 34/47 initiatives (0.72; 95% Wilson CI 0.58--0.83) exhibit joint social--technical design; country-level indices span 0.57--0.90 (small n; intervals overlap). Scenario results suggest that, under our modeled conditions, regulatory convergence plausibly binds outcomes more than fiscal capacity: fragmented rules can offset high oil revenues, while harmonized standards help preserve progress under austerity. We also identify an emerging two-track talent system, research elites versus rapidly trained practitioners, that risks labor-market bifurcation without bridging mechanisms. By extending STS inquiry to oil-rich, state-led economies, the study refines theory and sets a research agenda focused on longitudinal coupling metrics, ethnographies of coordination, and outcome-based performance indicators. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05927 |
| By: | Mohammad Rashed Albous; Bedour Alboloushi; Arnaud Lacheret |
| Abstract: | Comparative evidence on how Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states turn artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions into post--New Public Management (post-NPM) outcomes is scarce because most studies examine Western democracies. We analyze constitutional, collective-choice, and operational rules shaping AI uptake in two contrasting GCC members, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait, and whether they foster citizen centricity, collaborative governance, and public value creation. Anchored in Ostrom's Institutional Analysis and Development framework, the study combines a most similar/most different systems design with multiple sources: 62 public documents from 2018--2025, embedded UAE cases (Smart Dubai and MBZUAI), and 39 interviews with officials conducted Aug 2024--May 2025. Dual coding and process tracing connect rule configurations to AI performance. Cross-case analysis identifies four reinforcing mechanisms behind divergent trajectories. In the UAE, concentrated authority, credible sanctions, pro-innovation narratives, and flexible reinvestment rules scale pilots into hundreds of services and sizable recycled savings. In Kuwait, dispersed veto points, exhortative sanctions, cautious discourse, and lapsed AI budgets confine initiatives to pilot mode despite equivalent fiscal resources. The findings refine institutional theory by showing that vertical rule coherence, not wealth, determines AI's public-value yield, and temper post-NPM optimism by revealing that efficiency metrics serve societal goals only when backed by enforceable safeguards. To curb ethics washing and test transferability beyond the GCC, future work should track rule diffusion over time, develop blended legitimacy--efficiency scorecards, and examine how narrative framing shapes citizen consent for data sharing. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05932 |
| By: | Abay, Kibrom A.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | The recent surge in armed conflicts across Africa is increasing demand for humanitarian and social assistance, creating significant pressure on humanitarian actors to deliver life-saving support amid insecurity and constrained resources. The conflict that erupted in Sudan in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has resulted in the world’s largest displacement crisis, triggering an acute and multidimensional humanitarian emergency requiring urgent and substantial international support. These armed conflicts in Africa are threatening important gains in poverty reduction made in the last few decades. While armed conflicts and associated crises increase the need for assistance, they simultaneously undermine the capacity to deliver it. In conflict-affected settings, the operational environment is often marked by damaged infrastructure, disrupted markets, weakened institutions, and limited humanitarian access. These challenges hinder the effectiveness, targeting, and coverage of social protection and humanitarian aid programs (Ghorpade, 2017; 2020; Lind et al., 2022). Moreover, the proliferation of armed groups—including both state and non-state actors—can obstruct aid delivery or divert assistance, further limiting program reach and impact. Compounding these challenges is a widening humanitarian financing gap, driven by escalating needs and declining donor contributions. In response, development and humanitarian actors are increasingly exploring cost-effective delivery mechanisms to improve efficiency, transparency, and reach of humanitarian aid to vulnerable populations. Among these, digital transfers, including mobile money, offer promising avenues for delivering assistance in fragile settings where conventional approaches may be impractical or insecure. This brief draws on evidence from Sudan to assess the feasibility and demand for digital transfers in humanitarian response. It explores emerging practices and offers insights for policymakers, donors, and implementing agencies aiming to adapt assistance modalities to meet the challenges of protracted crises. |
| Keywords: | conflicts; aid programmes; poverty; capacity assessment; digital technology; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:175477 |
| By: | Abdul-Jalil, Sawsan; Luckmann, Jonas; Grethe, Harald |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi24:364734 |
| By: | Nikzad, Mojtaba; Gerharz, Eva |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi24:364753 |
| By: | Isil Erol; Ezgi Doru |
| Abstract: | Following the 2008/09 Great Financial Crisis—characterized by the collapse of the housing market and waves of forced evictions across the Global North—the viability of home ownership ‘for all’ has come under critical scrutiny, both materially and ideologically. On the one hand, the liberalizing credit markets introduced to push homeownership rates further upward have reached their limits; on the other hand, the ideological framing of home ownership as the cornerstone of household economic security over the life course has been critically undermined, revealing its structural contradictions. The political project of promoting homeownership at the expense of other tenures has created an alarming housing crisis, as private renting has become the fastest-growing tenure globally, coupled with increasing unaffordability in a highly unregulated rental markets. Since the late 2000s, rental housing prices have been on the rise, increasing by an average of 1.5 times across OECD countries, while Turkey ranks first, with rental costs surging elevenfold between 2015 and 2024. Furthermore, in the past thirteen years Turkey has experienced the fastest real house price increase among OECD countries where the real price index increased from 83.7 in 2010 to 196.7 in 2023 – with a 135% rise. Due to stubburnly high housing inflation, homeownership rate in the country has decreased 5 percentage points over the past decade, from 61% in 2012 & 2013 to 56% in 2023. Widely discussed in the academic literature, Turkey's housing crisis was primarily driven by a state-facilitated credit boom in the non-financial corporate sector—particularly in construction and real estate companies—unlike the household debt-driven crises commonly observed in Global North countries. Turkey’s high inflation has squeezed the mortgage market as the share of residential mortgages in total consumer credits declined to 31% in 2023 from a peak of 49% in mid-2000s. As a result, both the share of renter households and the share of tenants who pay reduced or free rents (among renter households) significantly increased. A substantial body of critical research has examined the contradictions of financialized homeownership policies, which remain relevant as it is still the most institutionally and financially supported tenure in many parts of the world. Yet, the contemporary housing affordability crisis cannot be fully understood without placing rental housing at the core of political economy analyses. With the aim of addressing this gap in the literature, our research paper explores Turkey’s rental housing crisis as a novel phenomenon in the country’s urban history. It places particular emphasis on the history of the state’s exclusionary policies toward rental housing as a legitimate tenure, the changing character of Turkey’s rental housing stock, and the structural reasons behind rental price increases that surpass inflation and wage growth. This analysis is based on a combination of archival research, including parliamentary documents, historical records, and newspaper archives related to housing, as well as national and international statistical data on rental markets, inflation, and wage growth. |
| Keywords: | affordability crisis; rental housing crisis; Turkish housing market; urban housing affordability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_125 |
| By: | Zeynep Onder; dil Ayberk |
| Abstract: | When house prices increase, the collateral value of bank loans that companies and households can get increases. It is known that collaterals are one of the factors that determine the capital structure of companies (for example, see Rampini and Viswanathan, 2010). In addition, the increase in the value of the collateral will reduce the agency problem between the lenders and the investors. It will cause the investments of the companies to increase (Fougere, Lecat, and Ray, 2019). Although these relations, which are called collateral channels in the literature (Bernanke and Gertler, 1989; Kiyotaki and Moore, 1997), have been shown in developed countries during the periods when house prices rise and fall, there is not much evidence in developing counties, except China (for example, Chen et al., 2015; Deng et al., 2018). However, due to the diversity of the housing market in China and the large number of state-owned enterprises, the evidence from this country may not be generalized to other developing countries. In this study, we aim to contribute to the literature by examining how the capital structure and investments of companies in Turkey change with the change in the real estate values for the period 2010-2022 when real house prices did not change and increased considerably. Several studies have shown that shocks to real estate value have significant effects on employment and investments. For example, Chaney, Sraer, and Thesmar (2012) reported that when collateral values increased by $1 during the period 1993-2007, publicly traded US firms increased their investments by $0.06. Using administrative data, they also show that the effect of collateral on the investment of French companies was greater than that for the US firms. They explained the difference by the fact that French firms are more financially constrained. Similarly, Bahaj, Foulis, and Pinter (2020) estimated that a 1 pound increase in the prices of houses owned by company directors in the UK increased the companies’ investments by 0.03 pounds. Fougere, Lecat, and Ray (2019) reported that the effect of the change in real estate values on firms’ investments depends on their real estate holdings and found that a 10 percent increase in real estate prices causes a 1% decrease in vestment rates of companies with less holdings while it increases investments of companies with highest holdings by 6%. They also stated that the increase in collateral values had a positive effect on total productivity. Since the firms are generally more financially constrained in emerging economies, the effect of the value of real estate is expected to have significant effects on investments. Some studies examine the impact of the changes in real estate values on capital structure. For example, Gan (2007) found that companies that owned real estate were affected by the bursting of the real estate bubble in Japan in the 1990s and had difficulty maintaining their relationships with their banks and were able to get fewer bank loans. Campello et al. (2022) showed that after the increase in real estate values, US firms took more debt, but instead of secured debt, they got unsecured debt. Cvijanovic (2014) found that a one standard deviation increase in real estate values caused the company’s debt ratio to increase by 3% because of the decline in borrowing cost or getting loans under more favorable conditions. Similarly, Lin (2016) reported that a one standard deviation increase in the collateral value of companies caused the bank loans-to-total debt ratio to increase by 6%. By investigating the capital structure of companies from several countries, including Hungary, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Turkey, Yesiltas (2015) showed that the capital structures of companies with high collateral value are more affected by the shock in loan-to-value ratio than companies with low collateral value. Among the emerging economies, we are only aware of studies of China. For example, Chen et al. (2015) examined the period 2000-2007 and showed that companies increased their private borrowing with the increase in house prices but the capital structure of the public companies is not affected because they do not have any credit restrictions. Wang, et al. (2017) examined how Chinese companies’ investments were affected by the change in house values in the period 2005-2014. They reported an inverse relationship between house prices and investments in non-public private companies. In Turkey, as in other developing countries, financing options for companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), are quite limited. The financing obtained through bank loans and the collateral channel that is as a result of the increase in real estate prices will be a very important source of financing for the companies. It is expected that the change in house values will have positive effects on both borrowing and investments of companies, especially SMEs in Turkey. The housing and credit markets in Turkey experienced extreme growth rates during the second half of the sample period. According to IMF statistics, real house values increased the most in the world in 2021 in Turkey (26.89%). In the same period, the average increase was 3.75% in developing countries. Although this increase reduces the housing affordability of households, we expect that this increase will have a positive effect on firms’ bank borrowing and level of investments, especially for SMEs that are more likely to be credit-constrained. The major problem in the analysis is the identification. This problem tries to be solved by using housing supply elasticity and the non-developable area ratio at the province level as instrumental variables, following Saiz (2010). Changes in house prices will be analyzed on a provincial basis using REIDIN data and for NUTS2 regions using CBRT data. The hypotheses will be tested separately in periods when house prices increase and when they do not change much. The financial data of the enterprises on a provincial basis are obtained from the Entrepreneur Information System (GBS) database maintained by The Ministry of Industry and Technology. As empirical models, we follow the literature and employ the model developed by Cvijanovic (2014) to investigate how the debt ratios of firms change by the increase in house value and the one developed by Fougere et al. (2019) to examine the effect of the changes in house values on investments of firms. The initial findings indicate that even though the large firms do not significantly change their capital structure or investments, micro and small firms increase their debt ratios and investments with the increase in real estate values in the period 2010-2022. |
| Keywords: | Collateral Channel; Debt Ratio; House Values; Investments |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_273 |
| By: | Dahab Aglan |
| Abstract: | After the end of their conflict with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Iraqi government initiated a policy to close all camps across Iraq housing individuals affected by conflict and facilitate their return to their areas of origin. At these areas of origin, millions of internally displaced people (IDPs) were also displaced by the ISIL conflict and already living outside of the camps, meaning both groups now co-exist outside of the camps. Using a novel dataset on movements of camp residents from closed camps, I leverage district-level variation in the population shares of inflows from the closed camps to estimate their effects on the welfare of IDP households already living outside the camps. Fearing ISIL-related stigma and targeting, inflows from the camps may not disclose their movements, while others faced barriers to returning to their areas of origin and moved to other districts. To overcome the resulting endogeneity in the inflows from camps, I use an instrumental variables strategy which leverages policy-driven inflows from closed camps while being orthogonal to local district conditions. Contrary to the debate on the camp closures policy, I do not find evidence that overall, inflows from camps affect the welfare of IDP households already living outside of camps. The difference in characteristics between inflows from the camps and IDP households receiving them outside of the camps appears to primarily mitigate the effects of the policy. However, compared to male- headed IDP households outside of camps, female-headed IDP households are more vulnerable to the inflows, highlighting the necessity of tailored policy interventions to address their specific welfare needs, especially their access to healthcare. |
| Keywords: | camps, conflict, idps, internal displacement, islamic state, welfare |
| JEL: | D74 I30 J15 J18 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:443 |
| By: | Steinberg, Guido |
| Abstract: | Die politischen, gesellschaftlichen und wirtschaftlichen Reformen dienen dem Ziel, die Herrschaft des saudischen Kronprinzen Muhammad Bin Salman langfristig zu festigen. Bin Salman zentralisiert die Entscheidungsfindung in seiner Person und kontrolliert die gesamte Politik des Landes. Der neue Autoritarismus des Kronprinzen ist weitaus durchgreifender und kompromissloser, als es in Saudi-Arabien bis 2015 der Fall war. Von Beginn an setzte Bin Salman auf einen ausgeprägten saudischen Nationalismus, den viele Beobachter als "Saudi-First-Politik" beschreiben. Aus Sicht des Kronprinzen ist eine soziale und kulturelle Liberalisierung Grundvoraussetzung für das Gelingen seiner Wirtschaftsreformen und damit für das langfristige Überleben des Königreichs und der Herrscherfamilie. Die Reformen zeitigen nur begrenzten Erfolg, denn trotz wirtschaftlicher Belebung bleibt Saudi-Arabien unverändert von seinen Öleinnahmen abhängig. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:330662 |
| By: | Handan Kaplan; Kerem Yavuz Arslanli |
| Abstract: | In response to the global acceleration of electric vehicle (EV) adoption, this study repositions EV charging stations as strategic urban real estate assets rather than mere technical infrastructure. It highlights the untapped potential of charging infrastructure to contribute to sustainable urban mobility, spatial efficiency, and real estate value generation when optimally located. Recognizing current limitations in site selection—often driven by technical feasibility alone—the research proposes a location-based, investment-oriented site selection model that integrates urban planning, spatial accessibility, and economic feasibility into a cohesive decision-support framework. Focusing on Istanbul as a case study, the model operates under a fixed investment budget, aiming to identify optimal locations that maximize usage potential and return on investment (ROI). The analytical framework is grounded in the DIKW (Data–Information–Knowledge–Wisdom) hierarchy and applies a four-stage methodology: data collection, spatial analysis, multi-criteria decision-making (AHP, Fuzzy AHP, SWARA), and portfolio-based evaluation. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to process and visualize key indicators, including population density, transportation networks, land values, and existing charging station locations. The study’s criteria are categorized into urban, economic, and environmental dimensions. While energy infrastructure data were limited, the model is designed to be scalable and adaptable for future data integration. Rooted in location theory, Highest and Best Use (HBU) analysis, and portfolio management principles, the model frames EV charging stations as components of a broader urban investment strategy. Ultimately, the research offers a spatially explicit, data-driven tool for public and private stakeholders, facilitating strategic decision-making in EV infrastructure deployment. The model’s flexible structure allows for adaptation across diverse urban contexts, contributing to both economic and spatial sustainability in EV infrastructure planning. |
| Keywords: | EV Charging Stations; Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MDM); Real Estate Investment; site selection |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_292 |
| By: | Kerem Yavuz Arslanli; Ayse Buket Onem; Maral Tascilar; Cemre Ozipek; Maide Donmez; Belinay Hira Guney; Sule Tagtekin; Candan Bodur; Yulia Besik |
| Abstract: | The catastrophic consequences of the February 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye have accentuated the pressing necessity for resilient and sustainable reconstruction in disaster-stricken regions. This research paper investigates the potential for low carbon investments in the real estate sector to catalyze the recovery and redevelopment of earthquake-affected areas. By employing demand modeling techniques and scrutinizing key market indicators, the study endeavors to identify investment opportunities that can yield both economic and environmental benefits. The paper leverages a comprehensive dataset encompassing 81 cities from 2013 to 2024, facilitating a robust analysis of residential market dynamics, energy consumption patterns, and socioeconomic factors. Through the application of random-effects GLS regression, the research elucidates the determinants of housing demand and the feasibility of low carbon interventions in post-disaster settlements. The findings provide invaluable insights for policymakers, investors, and real estate professionals aspiring to promote sustainable and resilient reconstruction efforts. By emphasizing the potential for low carbon investments to stimulate economic recovery while concurrently mitigating climate change impacts, this paper contributes to the burgeoning body of knowledge on green real estate and disaster risk management. |
| Keywords: | demand modeling, ; disaster recovery, ; low carbon real estate, ; resilient reconstruction, |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_288 |