|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Siddig, Khalid; Mohamed, Shima A. H. |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of conflict-induced migration in Sudan, focusing on the food security and access to healthcare of displaced households. Triggered by the civil conflict that started in April 2023, the recent widespread displacement of households has intensified vulnerabilities across the country. Using three datasets—the pre conflict 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey and two surveys conducted during the conflict, the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey—the research examines the impacts on household food security and healthcare access of migration driven by conflict. The study employs inverse probability weighting to estimate the causal impacts of migration, leveraging data from over 12, 000 households. The key impact indicators at the household level were the Food Insecurity Experience Scale score and, as a measure of healthcare access, any incidence of illness in the household. Analysis shows that migration induced by conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with over 90 percent of rural households and nearly 80 percent of urban households reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Rural households face additional challenges as displacement disrupts agricultural livelihoods and access to markets. Migration also worsens healthcare access, particularly in rural areas where displaced households experience a higher likelihood of illness. For urban households, migration fails to alleviate their healthcare challenges due to the collapse of urban healthcare systems. The study calls for urgent policy interventions, including targeted food aid and mobile healthcare services. Restoring healthcare infrastructure, expanding social protection mechanisms, and fostering peacebuilding efforts are critical to mitigating future displacement and supporting socioeconomic recovery. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors to address the immediate and long-term needs of displaced populations in Sudan. |
| Keywords: | Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa; conflicts; migration; food security; health; displacement; livelihoods; market access |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:23 |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan. |
| Keywords: | Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa; capacity development; households; water; energy; food security; health; socioeconomic environment; rural urban relations |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:22 |
| By: | Ahmed, Mosab; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu S.; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact in Sudan of conflict on employment and incomes and the effect of remittances and assistance received by a household on its food insecurity and food consumption. The analyses use data from the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS), the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey (SUHS). Conflict is found to significantly increase the likelihood of employment and income loss, particularly among female-headed and displaced households. Receipt of remittances does not have a significant effect on the food security or food consumption of a household. In contrast, whether a household receives assistance is associated with higher food insecurity and lower food consumption, likely reflecting the targeting of assistance programs toward vulnerable households. However, due to the cross sectional nature of the data, causal relationships cannot be established. The results highlight the need for targeted interventions to support the food security and welfare of households affected by the current conflict in Sudan, particularly through efforts to stabilize employment and incomes. |
| Keywords: | Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa; conflicts; employment; income; remittances; food security; food consumption |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:21 |
| By: | Moubarek Amine Berdaa (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Taoufiq Yahyaoui (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Jalal Ktit (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Tahraoui Btissam (ENCG - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion - UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)) |
| Abstract: | Denne undersøgelse giver en dybdegående analyse af de rumligt og tidsmæssigt heterogene effekter af human kapital på den regionale økonomiske vækst i Marokko i perioden 2011–2021. Med udgangspunkt i rammen for Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) indfanger analysen lokaliserede variationer i human kapitalens indflydelse – målt ved uddannelses- og sundhedsindikatorer – på den regionale BNP-vækst. Resultaterne afslører markante rumlige og tidsmæssige forskelle, hvilket bekræfter forholdets ikke-stationære karakter og understreger den afgørende rolle, som territoriale dynamikker spiller i udformningen af den regionale økonomiske performance. Ved at tilbyde ny empirisk evidens om den marokkanske regionale økonomi fremhæver denne forskning den analytiske relevans af ikke-stationære tilgange i vurderingen af udviklingsafkastet af human kapital og giver værdifuld indsigt til en evidensbaseret regionalpolitisk beslutningstagning. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie liefert eine vertiefte Untersuchung der räumlich und zeitlich heterogenen Effekte des Humankapitals auf das regionale Wirtschaftswachstum in Marokko im Zeitraum 2011–2021. Auf der Grundlage des Rahmens der Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) erfasst die Analyse lokalisierte Variationen im Einfluss des Humankapitals – gemessen anhand von Bildungs- und Gesundheitsindikatoren – auf das regionale BIP-Wachstum. Die Ergebnisse zeigen ausgeprägte räumliche und zeitliche Disparitäten, was die nicht-stationäre Natur dieser Beziehung bestätigt und die zentrale Rolle territorialer Dynamiken bei der Gestaltung der regionalen Wirtschaftsleistung hervorhebt. Durch die Bereitstellung neuer empirischer Evidenz zur marokkanischen Regionalökonomie unterstreicht diese Forschung die analytische Relevanz nicht-stationärer Ansätze bei der Bewertung der Entwicklungsrenditen von Humankapital und liefert wertvolle Erkenntnisse für eine evidenzbasierte Regionalpolitik. |
| Abstract: | This study provides an in-depth investigation of the spatially and temporally heterogeneous effects of human capital on regional economic growth in Morocco over the period 2011–2021. Drawing on the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) framework, the analysis captures localized variations in the influence of human capital—proxied by education and health indicators—on regional GDP growth. The results reveal pronounced spatial and temporal disparities, confirming the non-stationary nature of this relationship and emphasizing the pivotal role of territorial dynamics in shaping regional economic performance. By offering novel empirical evidence on the Moroccan regional economy, this research underscores the analytical relevance of non-stationary approaches in assessing the developmental returns of human capital and provides valuable insights for evidence-based regional policy-making. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude examine l'effet spatialement et temporellement variable du capital humain sur la croissance économique régionale au Maroc durant la période 2011-2021. En mobilisant la régression géographiquement et temporellement pondérée (GTWR), nous analysons les hétérogénéités locales dans l'impact du capital humain, mesuré par des indicateurs éducatifs et de santé, sur la croissance du PIB régional. Les résultats révèlent une forte variation spatiale de cet impact, confirmant le caractère non stationnaire de la relation et l'importance des dynamiques territoriales. Ce travail apporte un éclairage empirique nouveau sur l'économie régionale marocaine et souligne la pertinence des approches non stationnaires pour analyser les effets du développement humain. |
| Keywords: | Spatial econometrics, GTWR, Economic growth, Human capital, économétrie spatiale, Croissance économique régionale, Capital humain |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05271365 |
| By: | Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | The conflict in Sudan, which started in April 2023, has led to severe economic repercussions, sharply reducing the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and household incomes and increasing the prevalence of poverty. Using an updated economywide database for Sudan, we ran an analysis of the likely economic impact of a continuation of the conflict through to the end of 2024 using two scenarios of extreme and moderate reductions in overall GDP. These reductions are triggered mainly by the ongoing conflict, which is causing additional cuts in the operations of business services and continuing disruptions to wholesale and retail services and manufacturing. The results of the analysis show a 47 percent decline in Sudan’s GDP under the extreme reduction scenario and a 13 percent decline under the moderate scenario relative to 2022 before the conflict began. Under the extreme scenario, the agrifood system GDP falls by 26 percent and employment by 50 percent, with non-farm jobs being more adversely affected. Household incomes decline significantly across all quintiles and in both rural and urban areas, with urban and richer households facing slightly higher reductions. Less-educated labor categories are severely affected, while tertiary-educated labor shows relative resilience. Poverty rates have surged, particularly in rural areas and among women, with the national poverty rate estimated to have increased by 21 percentage points under the extreme reduction scenario. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy and foster long-term resilience, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, provide support for the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation. |
| Keywords: | Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa; conflicts; economic impact; employment; income; poverty; agrifood systems; resilience; social protection |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:20 |
| By: | Sidahmed, Anwar; Mohamed, Shima |
| Abstract: | Since April 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in a violent conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, resulting in widespread displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and the collapse of essential services. As with agricultural production in rural communities across Sudan, urban and peri-urban farming systems in Greater Khartoum, the area around the capital city, have also been harmed by the conflict. An integrated assessment of the impact of conflict on crop production in Greater Khartoum was conducted using recent satellite imagery from 2024/25 winter season (October 2024 to March 2025), along with household-level data from the 2024 IFPRI Smallholder Farmers Survey covering the 2023/24 winter season (October 2023 to March 2024). Key findings from the assessment include: Decline in cropping activities: Analysis of satellite imagery showed clear evidence of a decline in cropping activities between December 2022 and December 2024. Land use analysis showed a 22 percent reduction in total cultivated area over this period. Notably, land under center-pivot irrigation declined by 87 percent. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis showed a 36 percent decline in vegetated land, indicating both reduced cultivation and plant cover. Widespread disruption to farming: Thirty-six percent of the farmers surveyed in Khartoum state reported not cultivating any crops in the 2023/24 winter season primarily because of conflict-related challenges that they could not overcome. Of those that did farm, over three-quarters reported that the conflict had disrupted their agricultural activities. Shifts in crop selection and agricultural input use: Vegetables and fruits are now the most commonly grown crops, followed by fodder and beans. Less than one-quarter of farmers now use improved seeds, largely due to conflict-related input shortages. However, despite the conflict, access to fertilizer markets has been maintained— 87 percent of farmers reported that they continue to use fertilizer. Localized resilience: Some areas of Greater Khartoum, particularly Karari locality, have maintained relatively high levels of cultivation, reflecting localized resilience and reasonable safety and access to agricultural landholdings. By combining spatial and socioeconomic data, the study highlights the complex and multidimensional nature of agricultural disruption in conflict-affected areas, like Greater Khartoum. Several policy responses and other actions needed for recovery and to strengthen the resilience of affected farmers are suggested by the study findings: Promote resilient and inclusive farming systems and agricultural value chains. Restore agricultural infrastructure and input supply chains. Improve farmer mobility and market access. Provide emergency assistance and recovery packages to farmers. Strengthen agricultural monitoring systems. |
| Keywords: | armed conflicts; capacity development; crop production; farming; satellite imagery; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:176773 |
| By: | Okan Akarsu; Emrehan Aktuğ; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | We conducted a survey of Turkish firms, using randomized treatments to provide varied information about inflation in a high-inflation environment. By matching the survey data with administrative firm-level data on employment, sales, credit, and foreign exchange transactions, we explore the impact of exogenous variations in inflation expectations on firms' behavior, borrowing decisions, and expectations. Our findings are summarized in seven facts: (i) information treatments are effective at generating exogenous variation in inflation expectations, even when inflation is high; (ii) the pass-through to firms' own price, wage, and cost expectations is strong, reaching up to 60%; (iii) firms adopt a supply-side interpretation of inflation—lower inflation expectations make them more optimistic; (iv) firms with lower inflation expectations decrease credit demand by approximately 3% for a 1 percentage point decline in expected inflation, shifting from long-term to short-term loans to avoid higher perceived costs; (v) they dollarize their liabilities by increasing their share of FX-denominated debt; (vi) they de-dollarize their assets by decreasing their net foreign currency holdings; and (vii) they increase their real activity, leading to higher employment and sales, and lower inventory. |
| Keywords: | expectations, firms, RCT, high inflation, macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E12 E24 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12210 |
| By: | Guillaume Lestrelin (UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Emeline Hassenforder (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Houssem Braiki (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Xavier Augusseau (UMR TETIS - Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sylvie Morardet (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Soumaya Younsi; Syrine Mrad; Hadil Chiha |
| Abstract: | Ce guide traite de planification territoriale, un processus stratégique et décisionnel visant à organiser et à programmer le développement d'un territoire en intégrant divers aspects tels que l'utilisation des terres, la gestion des ressources naturelles, l'accès aux biens et aux services publics, les infrastructures et les activités économiques. Il est issu de réflexions et d'expérimentations menées en Tunisie depuis plus de quinze ans par le Ministère de l'Agriculture, des Ressources Hydrauliques et de la Pêche et ses partenaires de l'enseignement supérieur et de la recherche agronomique tunisiens et français. |
| Keywords: | Approche participative, Planification, Tunisie, Méthodologie, Développement territorial |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05312848 |
| By: | Abdelaziz, Fatma; Abay, Kibrom A. |
| Abstract: | Despite growing enthusiasm about the potential of digital innovations to transform agrifood systems, adoption among smallholder farmers in Africa remains low and heterogeneous. While the proliferation of digital tools targeting smallholder farmers is encouraging, the vast majority remain at pilot stages, facing important demand and supply-side barriers to adoption. This paper evaluates alternative digital literacy interventions designed to address these demand-side barriers. Following a Training of Trainers (TOT) model, we designed and implemented a randomized control trial to test three variants of digital literacy training: standard classroom-based digital literacy training (T1), digital training complemented (preceded) by a video-based play (T2), digital training complemented (preceded) by a live community play (T3), and a control group (C). We find that all variants of digital training significantly increased the uptake and utilization of digital tools by smallholder farmers. Specifically, the standard digital training alone increased uptake by 20 percentage points and utilization by 26 percentage points. The interventions also significantly enhanced farmer trust in digital tools by 8–13 percentage points. Surprisingly, for some outcomes, the digital literacy training alone outperformed the combined approaches that incorporated edutainment nudges. We explore possible explanations, including group size effects and social influence dynamics during the plays. We also document heterogeneity in the impact of these interventions across farmers’ gender and age. Our findings offer insights for designing cost effective and scalable interventions to build digital capabilities and trust among smallholder farmers. |
| Keywords: | digital literacy; training; digital agriculture; smallholders; technology adoption; Egypt; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:176520 |
| By: | Daniel Baksa; Yotam Peterfreund; Nadav Podoler; Ivy Sabuga; Tanya Slobodnitsky; Luis-Felipe Zanna |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the Israeli Structural Model (ISM), a New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to reflect key characteristics of the Israeli economy. The ISM incorporates diverse consumer saving behaviors and labor skills, a dynamic high-tech (HT) sector, international trade and capital integration, and comprehensive fiscal components. As an integral part of the Ministry of Finance’s (MOF) Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), the ISM serves as a macroeconomic policy scenario analysis tool, aiding in policy discussions and decision-making. This paper illustrates the ISM's policy use by evaluating strategies for utilizing additional government revenue generated from the HT sector boom in 2022 and their macroeconomic impacts. It compares three policy options: accelerated public debt reduction, redistribution through transfers, and increased public investment. The findings indicate that increased public investment is the most beneficial strategy, in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, accelerating GDP's convergence to its trend, reducing public debt to GDP ratios, and mitigating real appreciation and the impact on the most vulnerable population. |
| Keywords: | Israel; Forecasting and Policy Analysis System; DSGE Model; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/213 |