|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Alazzawi, Shireen; Dang, Hai-Anh; Hlasny, Vladimir; Abanokova, Kseniya; Behrman, Jere |
| Abstract: | Various challenges are thought to render female-headed households (FHHs) in the Arab region vulnerable to poverty. Yet, previous studies show mixed results regarding the extent of FHH poverty and the absence of household-panel-survey data hinders analysis of poverty dynamics. We address these challenges by proposing a novel classification of FHHs and analyze synthetic panels constructed from 20 rounds of repeated-cross-sectional surveys from Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Mauritania, the West Bank and Gaza, and Tunisia spanning the past two decades. We find that the definition of FHHs matters for measuring poverty levels and dynamics. Most types of FHHs are less poor than non–FHHs on average, but FHHs with females as a majority of adults are generally poorer. FHHs are more likely to escape poverty than households on average, but FHHs without children are the most likely to do so. While more children are generally associated with more poverty for FHHs, there is heterogeneity across countries in addition to heterogeneity across definitions of FHHs. The findings provide useful inputs for the design and targeting of social-protection programs aimed at reducing gender inequalities and poverty in the Arab region. |
| Keywords: | Arab region; female-headedness classification; feminization; household surveys; poverty; synthetic panels |
| JEL: | I30 J16 N35 O10 |
| Date: | 2025–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129692 |
| By: | Mühlberger, Wolfgang |
| Abstract: | This study takes a critical look at Franco-German relations in the field of international cooperation along the entire humanitarian-development-peace (HDP) spectrum to better gauge the usefulness of bilateral collaborative action in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Both the corresponding potential - for example in the current Syrian transition - as well as existing coordination formats are of interest to the inquiry. The latter are examined in more detail against the background of German and French activities in Libya and Iraq. In this context, the analysis also considers the HDP nexus as an instrument of cooperation, which offers ideal conditions for application in fragile, conflict-prone (Libya) or war-torn countries (Iraq) due to their complex needs. The paper concludes with a series of recommendations for initiating or strengthening Franco-German cooperation in fragile states of the MENA region in the fields of humanitarian aid, development policy, and peacebuilding measures. The study is divided into three thematic sections, the first of which examines bilateral relations between Paris and Berlin, with a focus on the phase following the signing of the Aachen Agreement in 2019. The analysis of national and international framework conditions for and against international cooperation is also part of this section, taking into account the effects of the Trump 2.0 administration. In the second part, the foreign and development policy approaches of both countries are analysed with a focus on their Middle East policies. Here, convergences and divergent approaches are of special interest, allowing conclusions to be drawn about the ability and willingness to cooperate. The third section is devoted to a synthesis of the operationalisation of activities within the HDP spectrum, with Libya and Iraq as country examples, as well as additional considerations relating to Syria. On the one hand, this approach enables one to identify structural factors that either hinder or promote bilateral Franco-German cooperation in the international context. On the other hand, sufficient space is also given to current developments in order to be able to categorise trends and contextual factors which have a reinforcing or weakening effect on cooperation drivers. The Discussion Paper concludes with a recapitulation of the findings, and derives actionable recommendations for strengthening cooperation between Paris and Berlin in the crisis-ridden MENA region on the basis of HDP coordination. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:327982 |
| By: | Sabrine Emran; Hanne Knaepen; Larabi Jaïdi |
| Abstract: | The European Union (EU) is seeking to enhance energy security. It clearly recognises North Africa’s strategic role in the global energy transition, given the region’s abundant renewable resources, with some of the world’s highest solar irradiation and strong winds. Joint efforts could advance shared sustainable energy solutions and generate mutual benefits. Climate finance plays a crucial role in facilitating the renewable energy transition. Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria are well-positioned to lead this transition, while advancing their own renewable energy sectors, green industrialisation and the hydrogen economy. Through the EU’s Global Gateway AfricaEurope Investment Package (EC, 2025a), various flagship projects have been approved for North Africa since 2023. These include green energy projects in Algeria and Tunisia (MedLink) (Council of the European Union, 2024), a 1.7 GW renewable energy programme in Tunisia in 2024 (Hellenic Aid, 2024) or the construction of a high-voltage undersea electrical interconnection between Egypt and Greece in 2023 (French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, 2023). However, realising this potential requires significant investment and infrastructure development to ensure a just and sustainable transition that benefits both local economies and global partners. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pbettg1_25 |
| By: | El Hussein Fouad |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the stabilization experience in the MENA region, focusing on Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Jordan over the past century. It seeks to answer the question: To what extent have these countries succeeded in achieving resilience to shocks and stresses? Key policy elements included significant fiscal adjustments—varying in scale across countries—and exchange rate developments supported by monetary policies aimed at combating inflationary pressures. The outcomes involved avoiding output collapse despite fiscal consolidation and repeated shocks, enduring stress within the financial system without systemic failure, and maintaining external viability despite lackluster trade performance. The paper proposes macroeconomic policy recommendations across three key pillars: fiscal policy, monetary policy, and trade and industrial policy. These recommendations are tailored to the structural characteristics, reform priorities, and external vulnerabilities of each country. The experience of successful stabilization provides a solid foundation for advancing the structural reforms needed to enhance resilience and boost economic growth. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rp06_25 |
| By: | Ferid Belhaj |
| Abstract: | MENA faces a severe water crisis, with 12 of the world’s 17 most water-stressed countries. Climate change, population growth, inefficient water management, and weak governance drive this challenge. Water production, treatment, and distribution require high energy inputs, while energy generation depends on water for cooling and refining. The region must integrate renewable energy, especially solar power, into water solutions like desalination. Inaction could shrink GDP by up to 14% by 2050, while a $500 billion investment over the next decade could secure water resources. Key solutions include renewable-powered desalination, modernized water networks, large-scale wastewater recycling, and innovative financing through green bonds, public- private partnerships, and sovereign wealth funds. Regional collaboration on transboundary water management and shared desalination projects remains essential. MENA must act now. By integrating sustainable water-energy strategies, the region can secure its future and drive stability and growth. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb016_25 |
| By: | Fadoua Ammari; Rida Lyammouri |
| Abstract: | The Atlantic Initiative, announced by King Mohammed VI in November 2023 to provide landlocked Sahelian countries with access to the Atlantic Ocean via Moroccan territory, promises to profoundly reshape the bilateral relationship between Rabat and Nouakchott. This research paper examines how this unprecedented project creates new strategic opportunities while raising shared challenges for Morocco and Mauritania. Diplomatically, the rapprochement around the Atlantic Initiative unfolds in a delicate regional context, where the Sahara issue remains politically sensitive and the balances within the African Union (AU) are constantly evolving. Economically, this cooperation could open trade corridors crossing Mauritania, develop infrastructure (roads, railways, ports), and stimulate Mauritanian development—particularly through the port of Nouadhibou—while contributing to food security and regional integration. On the security front, the realization of the Initiative requires addressing significant challenges linked to Sahelian instability, including terrorism, road protection, and military collaboration between Rabat and Nouakchott. In complex regional and international environments—shaped by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), reconfigurations in West Africa, and the interests of the European Union (EU)—the success of the Atlantic Initiative will depend on the ability of Morocco and Mauritania to overcome these diplomatic, economic, and security obstacles. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rp09_25_en |
| By: | Mustafa Erdem; Selcuk Gul |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada, Turkiye ekonomisinde sanayi uretiminin teknoloji yogunlugunun yakin donemdeki gelisimi hem makro duzeyde hem de firma duzeyinde gostergelerle ele alinmaktadir. Son on yillik donemde yuksek ve orta-yuksek teknoloji uretimi dikkat cekici bir artis kaydetmistir. Soz konusu donemde, Turkiye'nin teknoloji yogunluguna gore sanayi uretimindeki artis, Avrupa ulkelerinden olumlu yonde ayrismistir. Yuksek ve orta-yuksek teknoloji urunlerinin imalat sanayi icindeki payi halen OECD ortalamasinin altinda olmakla birlikte pandemi sonrasi donemde bu gruplarin performansi guclenmistir. Firma verilerinden mikro duzeyde hesaplanarak teknoloji gruplarina gore toplulastirilan gostergelere gore yuksek ve orta-yuksek teknoloji gruplarindaki firmalarin genel olarak likidite ve kârlilik oranlari yuksek, borcluluk oranlari ise dusuktur. Buna ek olarak, Ar-Ge harcamalari pandemi sonrasinda artis kaydetmistir. Ayrica, orta-yuksek ve yuksek teknoloji gruplarinin ihracat odakliligi diger gruplara gore daha yuksektir. Turkiye imalat sanayinin teknoloji yogunlugunda son on yillik donemde yakalanan guclu performansin surdurulmesi amaciyla Ar-Ge yatirimlarini destekleyen, isgucunun becerilerinin gelistirilmesine imkân veren, yapay zekâ ve dijitallesmeyi tesvik eden, yeni islerin ve kucuk ve orta olcekli girisimlerin daha kolay ortaya cikmasini destekleyen politikalar onemli gorulmektedir. [EN] This study examines the recent developments in the technological intensity of industrial production in the Turkish economy using indicators at both macro and firm levels. Over the past decade, there has been a notable increase in high- and medium-high-technology production. Indeed, during this period, the growth of industrial production by technological intensity in Türkiye has shown a positive divergence when compared to European countries. Although the share of high- and medium-hightechnology products in the manufacturing industry remains below the OECD average, the performance of these groups has strengthened in the post-pandemic period. According to aggregated indicators calculated at the micro level using firm data, on average, firms in high- and medium-high-technology groups generally exhibit higher liquidity and profitability ratios and lower debt ratios. In line with this, research and development (R&D) expenditures have increased in the post-pandemic period. Additionally, firms in the medium-high and high-technology groups are more export-oriented compared to other groups. To sustain the strong performance achieved in the technological intensity of Türkiye’s manufacturing industry over the past decade, policies that support R&D investments, enable workforce skill development, promote artificial intelligence and digitalization, and facilitate the emergence of new businesses and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are deemed important. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2518 |
| By: | Nabila El Boukhari (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)); Mounia Filali (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)) |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence represents a transformative force in Human Resource Management (HRM), capable of helping Moroccan companies reach a new frontier of operational efficiency, data-driven decision-making, and employee experience. However, its potential is currently constrained by limited investment resources and, potentially, by cultural realities. This integrative review aims to synthesize the state of the art by combining narrative and conceptual perspectives. The significance of our study lies in the need to mobilize theoretical frameworks such as the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), the Diffusion of Innovations Theory, and the Resource-Based View (RBV) to describe the drivers and barriers to AI integration in HRM in Morocco. If achieved, this will pave the way for Moroccan organizations to fully leverage AI in HR functions, including recruitment, training, and performance management. The study provides a framework for companies considering the adoption of AI within their HR departments. It sheds light on the main enablers and obstacles of AI adoption, offering recommendations to mitigate challenges such as resistance to change and inadequate skills. For instance, the study advocates training initiatives to equip HR professionals with the necessary competencies, as well as the establishment of digital infrastructures to effectively support AI systems. Finally, the paper emphasizes that AI must be deployed responsibly, including the development of guidelines to prevent algorithmic bias and safeguard private data. |
| Abstract: | Les auteurs n'ont pas connaissance de quelconque financement qui pourrait affecter l'objectivité de cette étude et ils sont responsables de tout plagiat dans cet article. Conflit d'intérêts :Les auteurs ne signalent aucun conflit d'intérêts. Citer cet articleEL BOUKHARI, N., & FILALI, M. (2025). Perspective de l'intelligence artificielle sur la gestion des ressources humaines : Un accélérateur de transformation et de performance dans les entreprises marocaines. |
| Keywords: | Intelligence Artificielle, gestion des ressources humaines, IA, GRH, performance opérationnelle, Organisation marocaine. JEL Classification : O15 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique Artificial Intelligence, Human Resource Management, Operational Performance. Classification JEL: O15. Paper type: Theoretical Research, Intelligence Artificielle gestion des ressources humaines IA GRH performance opérationnelle Organisation marocaine. JEL Classification : O15 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique Artificial Intelligence Human Resource Management IA GRH Operational Performance. Classification JEL: O15. Paper type: Theoretical Research |
| Date: | 2025–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05243494 |
| By: | Okan Akarsu; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | [EN] This study investigates how firms' inflation expectations evolve during both inflationary and disinflationary periods, using data from the Business Tendency Survey (BTS), and analyzes the relationship between firms' cost- and price-related expectations and their inflation forecasts. By matching firms based on their fundamental characteristics, and then employing probit models alongside propensity score matching, we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) to assess changes in expectations as quasi-randomized treatments. Our results indicate a significant dispersion in inflation expectations during periods of rising inflation. However, as inflation stabilizes, firms' expectations begin to converge, signaling reduced uncertainty and closer alignment with central bank targets. This study adds to the literature by providing empirical evidence from an emerging market economy, offering valuable insights into how firm-level inflation expectations shift across different inflation phases and highlighting the role of monetary policy in anchoring these expectations. [TR] Bu calisma, Iktisadi Egilim Anketi (IYA) verilerini kullanarak firmalarin enflasyon beklentilerinin hem enflasyonist hem de dezenflasyonist donemlerde nasil degistigini Iktisadi Egilim Anketi (IYA) verilerini kullanarak incelenmekte ve firmalarin maliyet ve fiyatla ilgili beklentileri ile enflasyon tahminleri arasindaki iliskiyi analiz etmektedir. Firmalari temel ozelliklerine gore eslestirip, ardindan egilim puani eslestirme) yontemi ve probit modeller kullanilarak, beklentilerdeki degisiklikleri yari-rastgele tedaviler olarak degerlendirmek icin tedavi grubu uzerindeki ortalama etki tahmin edilmektedir. Bulgularimiz, enflasyonun yukseldigi donemlerde firmalarin enflasyon beklentilerinde onemli bir dagilim oldugunu gostermektedir. Ancak, enflasyon istikrar kazandikca, firmalarin beklentileri yakinsamaya baslamakta; bu da belirsizligin azaldigini ve beklentilerin merkez bankasi hedeflerine daha yakin hale geldigine isaret etmektedir. Bu calisma, gelismekte olan bir ulkeden elde edilen ampirik bulgularla mevcut literature katki saglamakta; firmalarin enflasyon beklentilerinin enflasyonun farkli evrelerinde nasil degistigine dair degerli bilgiler sunmakta ve bu beklentilerin cipalanmasinda para politikasinin rolunu vurgulamaktadir. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2519 |
| By: | El Mahdi Juiher (Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]); Hmad Ouaddi (Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the impact of artificial intelligence-generated virtual influencers on consumer trust and purchase intention in the context of digital marketing in Morocco. By mobilizing the theoretical frameworks of authenticity, brand trust and perceived cybersecurity risk, the research examines how the type of influencer (virtual versus human) shapes consumer attitudes and behaviors. A quantitative survey was conducted among 230 Moroccan social network users, measuring perceived authenticity, brand trust, purchase intention, influencer type and perceived cybersecurity risk. The results reveal a strong positive relationship between perceived authenticity and brand trust, as well as between brand trust and purchase intention. Human influencers are perceived as significantly more authentic than their virtual counterparts. Above all, the analysis shows that the perception of cybersecurity risk moderates the effect of influencer type on purchase intention: as security concerns increase, so does the preference for human influencers. These results underline the need for marketing professionals to integrate issues of digital trust, transparency and security into the design of their campaigns with virtual influencers. The study contributes to a better understanding of the challenges and opportunities associated with AI-driven marketing in specific cultural contexts, and opens up prospects for future research into digital ethics and consumer-perceived risk management. |
| Keywords: | digital, cybersecurity risk, purchase intent, trust, authenticity, Virtual influencers, Virtual influencers authenticity trust purchase intent cybersecurity risk digital |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05250808 |
| By: | Chaimaa Laamime, (École Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion (ENCG), Université Hassan II de Casablanca, Maroc); Karima Mialed (École Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion (ENCG), Université Hassan II de Casablanca, Maroc) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the impact of advanced financial technologies—artificial intelligence, predictive algorithms, intelligent trading platforms, and big data—on the decision-making processes of individual traders. Based on qualitative fieldwork with 30 Moroccan traders, the research shows that while digital tools can help reduce cognitive overload and emotional stress, they may also reinforce algorithmic overconfidence, excessive delegation of judgment, or illusions of control. The study highlights that the effects of these technologies are context-dependent, shaped by traders' techno-cognitive profiles, experience, and financial literacy. It contributes to behavioral finance by offering an integrated techno-behavioral perspective in the context of an emerging market. |
| Abstract: | L'émergence des solutions technologiques financières avancées notamment l'intelligence artificielle, les algorithmes prédictifs, les plateformes de trading intelligentes, le big data reconfigure en profondeur les pratiques décisionnelles des investisseurs et des traders en particulier dans les économies en mutation technologique. Ces dispositifs sont fréquemment présentés comme des catalyseurs de rationalité, toutefois, leur impact réel sur les biais comportementaux des traders individuels demeure controversé et ambigu. Cette étude propose une analyse critique de cette problématique à partir d'une étude qualitative conduite au Maroc, un marché émergent confronter à une adoption croissante des outils digitalisés et où les investisseurs et les traders individuels restent significativement influencés par des dimensions psychologiques, culturelles et émotionnelles. Cette étude est faite à travers des entretiens semidirectifs réalisés auprès des traders individuels marocains utilisant des plateformes mobilisant des technologies intelligentes, l'analyse met en lumière une tension permanente entre perception des gains de performance et persistance des biais. Certains outils technologiques contribuent à structurer et encadrer la prise de décision en limitant la surcharge émotionnelle, d'autres fonctionnalités technologiques tendent à engendrer une sur-confiance algorithmique, une délégation excessive du jugement ou encore une illusion de contrôle amplifiée. Ce travail s'inscrit dans une posture interprétativiste visant à comprendre les représentations des traders individuels à l'égard des technologies financières qu'ils mobilisent en s'appuyant sur des entretiens semi-directifs, analysés à partir d'un cadre ancré dans la subjectivité des auteurs, dans une logique de construction de sens. Cet article met en évidence que l'effet des technologies est contextuel dans la mesure où il dépend des représentations mentales, de l'expérience et du niveau de littératie financière des traders. L'étude apporte une contribution originale à l'approche de la finance comportementale en éclairant le rôle des technologies dans un environnement émergent comme le Maroc et en démontrant la nécessité d'une appropriation critique et réflexive des outils digitalisés dans les pratiques de trading. |
| Keywords: | Advanced technologies, Individual traders, Emerging markets, Artificial intelligence, Cognitive biases, Technologies avancées, Traders individuels, Biais cognitifs, Intelligence artificielle, Marché émergent |
| Date: | 2025–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05243730 |
| By: | Mahmoud Arbouch Eduardo Amaral Haddad; Eduardo Amaral Haddad |
| Abstract: | AMorocco’s strong macroeconomic performance over the past two decades—anchored in infrastructure modernization, industrial diversification, and renewable energy leadership—has positioned it as a success story in the Global South. Yet these achievements mask persistent regional disparities that undermine inclusive development. Coastal regions such as Casablanca-Settat and Tangier-Tétouan-Al Hoceima dominate economic activity, while hinterland and southern provinces face structural disadvantages in employment, connectivity, and public services. Drawing on the Williamson hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship between growth and inequality, this policy brief situates Morocco on the upward slope of rising regional disparities. It examines the historical roots of spatial imbalance, the limits of decentralization, and the structural concentration of growth in metropolitan hubs. While recent reforms, including the New Development Model (2021) and the Investment Charter (2022), aim to foster territorial equity, sustained progress will require a shift toward territorially sensitive policies that empower regions to drive more balanced and inclusive national development. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:p45_25 |
| By: | Okan Akarsu; Altan Aldan; Unal Seven |
| Abstract: | [EN] This study examines how firms’ perceptions of their business environment and expectations of their own future sales shape their inflation expectations, with particular attention to differences across inflation regimes. Using firm-level data from Türkiye’s Business Tendency Survey (BTS), we find that firms with a weaker assessment of their industry’s current state tend to forecast higher inflation, particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty. In high-inflation environments, firms’ inflation expectations are more strongly associated with their perceptions of current industry conditions, whereas expectations about their own future sales play a comparatively smaller role. Conversely, firms' expectations for their own sales become a more decisive factor in their inflation forecasts during low-inflation or disinflationary periods. These results highlight the state-dependent nature of firms’ inflation expectation formation. By shedding light on the mechanisms through which firms form expectations, this note underscores how reducing macroeconomic uncertainty and strengthening policy communication can enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. [TR] Bu calisma, firmalarin sektorel duruma iliskin algilarinin ve satis beklentilerinin enflasyon beklentilerini nasil sekillendirdigini, farkli enflasyon rejimleri altinda incelemektedir. Iktisadi Yonelim Anketi (IYA) verilerini kullanan analizimiz, sektorlerinin mevcut durumuna iliskin gorece daha olumsuz beklentiler icinde olan firmalarin, ozellikle belirsizligin arttigi donemlerde, diger firmalara gore daha yuksek enflasyon tahmininde bulunma egiliminde olduklarini gostermektedir. Yuksek enflasyon ortaminda, firmalarin enflasyon beklentileri, sektorlerinin mevcut kosullarina iliskin algilariyla daha guclu bir sekilde iliskilidir; buna karsilik, gelecekteki satislarina iliskin beklentilerinin enflasyon bekleyisleri uzerine etkisi daha sinirli kalmaktadir. Buna karsin, dusuk enflasyon veya dezenflasyon donemlerinde, firmalarin satis beklentileri enflasyon tahminlerinde daha belirleyici bir faktor haline gelmektedir. Bu bulgular, firmalarin enflasyon beklenti olusumunun duruma bagli bir yapiya sahip oldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. Firmalarin beklenti olusturma mekanizmalarina isik tutan bu calisma, makroekonomik belirsizligin azaltilmasi ve politika iletisiminin guclendirilmesinin para politikasinin etkinligini artirmada onemli bir rol oynayabilecegini vurgulamaktadir. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2521 |
| By: | Petre Caraiani; Nazli Karamollaoglu; Cihan Yalcin |
| Abstract: | Using a novel and comprehensive database of Turkish firms that combines the Business Tendency Survey (BTS) with the Company Accounts Statistics, we analyze the determinants of expectation errors of Turkish manufacturing firms. We examine firm expectation errors for various variables, including those related to sales, exports, consumer and producer prices inflation rates. We investigate the impact of various firm characteristics and macroeconomic factors reflecting uncertainty (exchange rate volatility and Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index- CBOE VIX) and monetary policy stance on firms’ absolute expectation errors. Using a fixed effects panel technique, we estimate that macro variables that control for uncertainty or volatility explain expectation errors better than firm-level variables. The rise in the exchange rate volatility and VIX is estimated to be associated with the worsening of the accuracy of expectations. The accuracy of expectations of sales improves with firm size while the accuracy of expectations errors for inflation rates declines with the share of short-term liabilities and liquidity ratio. |
| Keywords: | Expectation errors of firms, Firm heterogeneity, Sales, Exports and inflation rates, Macroeconomic uncertainty and volatility |
| JEL: | E31 D84 E37 G32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2515 |
| By: | Aysu Celgin; Orhun Özel |
| Abstract: | [TR] Hizmet grubunda tuketici fiyatlari, Tuketici Fiyat Endeksi (TUFE) kapsaminda, uretici fiyatlari ise Hizmet Uretici Fiyat Endeksi (H-UFE) kapsaminda yayimlanmaktadir. Uretici fiyat artislari tuketici fiyatlarina birebir yansimamakta, vergi etkileri, tanim ve kapsam farkliliklari, alt kalemler arasindaki agirlik farklari ve arz zincirindeki konum gibi unsurlarla enflasyon oranlari birbirinden farklilasabilmektedir. Hizmet grubundaki uretici ve tuketici fiyat endekslerini birbiriyle daha saglikli kiyaslayabilmek icin olasi ayrisma kaynaklari gozetilerek Hizmet TUFE kapsam ve agirliklari ile uyumlu bir uretici fiyat endeksi hesaplanmistir. Elde edilen bulgular olusturulan endeksin hizmet tuketici fiyatlari icin oncu gosterge olabilecegine isaret etmektedir. [EN] In the services group, consumer prices are released under the Consumer Price Index (CPI), while producer prices are published under the Services Producer Price Index (S-PPI). Producer price increases are not directly reflected in consumer prices, and inflation rates may differ from each other due to factors such as tax effects, differences in definition and scope, differences in weight between sub-items, and position in the supply chain. In order to compare the indices more accurately, this study calculates a Services PPI compatible with the scope and weights of the Services CPI, taking into account possible sources of divergence. The findings indicate that the constructed index may serve as a leading indicator for the consumer prices of services. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2520 |
| By: | Fadoua Ammari; Rida Lyammouri |
| Abstract: | L’Initiative Atlantique, annoncée par le Roi Mohammed VI en novembre 2023, visant à offrir aux pays sahéliens enclavés un accès à l’océan Atlantique via le territoire marocain, promet de redessiner en profondeur la relation bilatérale entre Rabat et Nouakchott. Cet article examine comment ce projet inédit crée de nouvelles opportunités stratégiques tout en soulevant des défis partagés pour le Maroc et la Mauritanie. Sur le plan diplomatique, le rapprochement autour de l’Initiative Atlantique intervient dans un contexte régional délicat, où la question du Sahara demeure politiquement sensible et où les équilibres au sein de l’Union africaine (UA) sont en constante évolution. Sur le plan économique, cette coopération pourrait ouvrir des corridors commerciaux traversant la Mauritanie, développer les infrastructures (routes, chemins de fer, ports) et stimuler le développement mauritanien, notamment via le port de Nouadhibou, tout en contribuant à la sécurité alimentaire et à l’intégration régionale. Sur le plan sécuritaire, enfin, la concrétisation de l’Initiative implique de relever d’importants défis liés à l’instabilité sahélienne : terrorisme, protection des routes, collaboration militaire entre Rabat et Nouakchott. Dans des environnements régional et international complexes, entre Zone de libre-échange continentale africaine (ZLECAf), reconfigurations en Afrique de l’Ouest, et intérêts de l’Union européenne (UE), le succès de l’Initiative Atlantique dépendra de la capacité du Maroc et de la Mauritanie à surmonter ces écueils diplomatiques, économiques et sécuritaires. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rp09_25 |
| By: | Sinanoglu, Semuhi |
| Abstract: | How does international assistance impact public attitudes towards donors in the recipient country when tied to strategic interests? European leaders increasingly highlight the strategic and transactional nature of international assistance. Yet, we still do not know much about how such shifts in the framing of international assistance are perceived by the recipient public, especially in contexts with prevalent anti-Western attitudes and propaganda that dismisses aid as hypocritical and disingenuous. I conducted an online survey experiment in Turkey to assess the attitudinal and quasi-behavioural effects of different types of international assistance post-disaster - conditional, unconditional, and strategic - and whether they help sway public attitudes in the face of authoritarian propaganda. Strategically distributed humanitarian aid decreased trust in the government as a defender of national interest among conservative, nationalist and Eurosceptic regime supporters, and also increased trust in European organisations. It did so partly by mitigating conspiracism and evoking positive emotions among pro-government voters whose views are hard to change. However, this comes at a cost: increased trade scepticism and decreased engagement with foreign media outlets among regime opponents. The findings have significant implications for international assistance strategies for increasing European soft power. |
| Keywords: | propaganda, polarisation, foreign aid, public support, post-disaster relief, conspiracism, experimental research, Turkey |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:327980 |
| By: | Ghouma, Rym; Lagarde, Mylène; Powell-Jackson, Timothy |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we explore an important but understudied driver of health inequalities: whether doctors treat patients from different socioeconomic backgrounds differently during a clinical encounter. We design an audit experiment in Tunisia, sending standardised patients with the same symptoms to 130 public and private primary care doctors for consultation. Informed by in-depth qualitative work, we vary the attitude and appearance of the patients so that they appear to be “poor” or “middle-class”. We find no evidence that doctors manage patients differently, but they respond to the socioeconomic profile of patients by prescribing fewer expensive drugs and giving out more free drugs to poorer patients. We also show significant differences in communication between patients: doctors are more likely to provide more explanation to richer patients about the diagnosis, the drugs prescribed and the treatment plan. These differences are not explained by time constraints as doctors spent comparable time with both types of patients. To the extent that differences in communication with patients can lead to differences in patients’ health decisions, our results suggest that doctors could contribute indirectly to health inequalities. |
| Keywords: | health care provision; socioeconomic inequalities; standardised patients; audit experiment; Tunisia |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129460 |
| By: | Solomon Hsiang; Marshall Burke |
| Abstract: | Some analyses suggest that drought in Syria during 2007-10 may have contributed to the 2011 onset of its civil war and that anthropogenic climate change had a detectable impact on the severity of that drought. Yet these qualitative statements alone do not allow us to estimate {how much} anthropogenic climate change amplified the risk of civil war in Syria. Climate policy is increasingly relying on global-scale cost-benefit analyses to inform major decisions, and any excess conflict risk imposed on future populations should be considered in this accounting because of its substantial human and economic impact. In order for this excess conflict risk to be accounted for, it must be quantified and its uncertainty characterized. Here we build on multiple recent findings in the literature to construct a best estimate for the excess conflict risk borne by Syria in 2010 that was attributable to anthropogenic climate change. We estimate that the baseline risk of conflict in Syria, which was likely already high, was amplified roughly 3.6% (90% confidence interval: 1.1-7.3%) due to the anthropogenic component of the drought. The effect of climate change was thus discernible but unlikely responsible for the bulk of Syrian conflict risk. Nevertheless, the magnitude of similar excess risk around the globe is expected to grow as climate change progresses, and its human cost could be large because most populations will face positive excess risk. Our approach to quantifying this risk is applicable to these other settings. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.02650 |
| By: | Mirjalili, Seyed hossein |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a comparative and analytical review of structural policies and structural reforms. It focuses on three interrelated dimensions: (1) the theoretical underpinnings and policy objectives of structural reforms (2) empirical evidence from country experiences with the design, sequencing, and implementation of structural reform packages; and (3) the political economy considerations that shape reform outcomes through cross-country comparative analysis, and synthesis of empirical findings to identify both the effectiveness and limitations of reform strategies. The findings indicate that timing, and calibration of conditions critically influence the effectiveness and feasibility of reforms. Empirical evidence highlights that the impact of structural reforms on long-term growth is contingent upon their type, sequencing, and packaging—comprehensive reform programs that combine institutional strengthening, human capital investment, and targeted social protection tend to achieve more sustainable outcomes. The importance of social acceptance, transparency, and public communication. Without compensatory mechanisms and credible strategies, reforms remain unsuccessful. Effective reform design requires clear prioritization, careful sequencing, and embedding reforms within broader strategies for inclusive development. |
| Keywords: | Structural policies, reforms, political economy of reform, policy sequencing. |
| JEL: | O11 O53 O57 |
| Date: | 2025–02–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126396 |