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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Rakhy, Tarig AlHaj; Siddig, Khalid; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Abushama, Hala |
| Abstract: | Sudan’s conflict, reignited in April 2023, represents not just a military contest between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), but a total systemic collapse that has engulfed governance, infrastructure, markets, and public services. This conflict did not arise in a vacuum. Sudan has long faced structural vulnerabilities including weak institutions, a fragile economy, and climate-related stressors such as erratic rainfall and land degradation. The war, however, accelerated these pre-existing fault lines into a full-blown crisis. Key urban economies such as Khartoum have been devastated by airstrikes and sieges, while transport corridors and trade routes have been severed. Local governance structures in many regions have been displaced or dissolved, leaving civilians without recourse to basic services or protection. Simultaneously, the banking sector has fractured, disrupting remittances, cash transfers, and supply chains across the country. Insecurity has driven over 12.8 million people from their homes – 8.6 million internally and 3.9 million seeking refuge neighboring countries, as of May 2025 (UNHCR, 2025). |
| Keywords: | capacity development; conflicts; livelihoods; vulnerability; food insecurity; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–07–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sssppn:175777 |
| By: | Marina Andrade (IPC); Beatriz Burattini (IPC); Luca Pellerano (IPC); Fabio Veras Soares (IPC) |
| Keywords: | social assistance; social insurance; IPEA; ILO |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:idopen:009 |
| By: | Yazdan Babazadeh Maghsoodlo; Amin Safaeesirat |
| Abstract: | Understanding the stochastic behavior of currency exchange rates is critical for assessing financial stability and anticipating market transitions. In this study, we investigate the empirical dynamics of the USD exchange rate in three economies, including Iran, Turkey, and Sri Lanka, through the lens of the Kramers-Moyal expansion and Fokker-Planck formalism. Using log-return data, we confirm the Markovian nature of the exchange rate fluctuations, enabling us to model the system with a second-order Fokker-Planck equation. The inferred Langevin coefficients reveal a stabilizing linear drift and a nonlinear, return-dependent diffusion term, reflecting both regulatory effects and underlying volatility. A rolling-window estimation of these coefficients, paired with structural breakpoint detection, uncovers regime shifts that align with major political and economic events, offering insight into the hidden dynamics of currency instability. This framework provides a robust foundation for detecting latent transitions and modeling risk in complex financial systems. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.01989 |
| By: | Aydın, Yaşar |
| Abstract: | Turkey's geopolitically motivated industrial and supply chain policy implies close ties to Germany as well as a security and economic policy orientation towards the EU. Ankara wants to bring production and sales into line with EU standards and establish a green high-tech and services economy. However, its decarbonisation measures remain inadequate. Turkish stakeholders see disruptions to global supply chains as creating the opportunity to relocate European production chains to Turkey (near-shoring). The government, the private sector and business organisations are all working to expand sustainable energy supplies. Turkey's authoritarian domestic policy - namely, the dismantling of democracy, repression and disregard for the rule of law - makes it extremely difficult to deepen bilateral cooperation. Despite close economic ties, there are normative differences between Germany and Turkey and consistent strategy to overcome them is lacking. Rather, the Turkish government is focused on using industrial policy to compensate for shortcomings in the rule of law. Amid the geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, Turkey is performing a delicate balancing act: it is maintaining its ties to the West while at the same time expanding its technology partnership with China and energy cooperation with Russia German policy towards Turkey requires a strategic rethink. It should endeavour to promote economic stability, strengthen Turkey's security policy integration into Europe and counteract Ankara's strategic rapprochement with Moscow and Beijing. Going forward, cooperation should be made conditional on democracy, the rule of law and human rights. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:325477 |
| By: | International Labour Organization (ILO) and Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA) (IPC) |
| Keywords: | Social assistance; Social insurance; Social security |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:idwpen:002 |
| By: | Mariz Abdou; Hasan Dudu; Mrs. Kerstin Gerling; Dalia Kadissi |
| Abstract: | Taking the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as given, our paper evaluates the impact of this terms-of-trade shock on the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA). Using a novel methodology and fresh data applied to the latest CBAM legislation, we both quantify and decompose the financial burden countries face as their exports to the EU become subject to a greenhouse gas-based fee starting in January 2026. Our analysis reveals that while the average effects of CBAM in ME&CA are modest, the region will shoulder one of the highest burdens worldwide, totaling US$1.7 billion annually (equivalent to 0.03 percent of GDP and a 14 percent surcharge on CBAM exports to the EU). The Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) subregion will bear a greater share of this burden than the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) due to stronger trade ties with the EU and higher emission intensity. Substantial country- and sector-level differences in CBAM exposure emphasize the need for tailored policy responses to mitigate the broader macroeconomic effects. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Border Adjustment Measures; Carbon Leakage; Trade Policy; Middle East; Central Asia and Caucasus |
| Date: | 2025–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/182 |
| By: | Marina Andrade (IPC); Beatriz Burattini (IPC); Luca Pellerano (IPC); Fabio Veras Soares (IPC) |
| Keywords: | social assistance; social insurance; IPEA; ILO |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:idpben:002 |
| By: | Lombardini, Simone; Kondylis, Florence; Lerva, Benedetta; Heirman, Jonas; Khincha, Roshni; Uckat, Hannah Irmela |
| Abstract: | Poor nutritional choices and unhealthy behaviors are considered responsible for the rise in childhood overweight and obesity and may reinforce each other, creating a vicious cycle. This paper studies a primary school intervention designed to break the cycle early in life by replacing date bars with calorie-equivalent meals lower in sugar and fat. Leveraging the randomized pilot of a menu change in Jordan’s national school feeding program, the study shows that children consuming the alternative meals spend 8 percent less money to buy processed snacks, are more physically active (0.1 standard deviation), and go to school one extra day per year. |
| Date: | 2025–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11208 |