|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Parkes, R.; Fragaszy, S. R.; Belhaj Fraj, M.; Abdelwahab, N.; Mandouri, H.; Slehat, F.; Hayajneh, A.; Rabi, A.; Amleh, N.; AbdelMeguid, A.; Maowod, G.; Khatib, B.; Ferando, S.; Hayek, F.; Samarasekara, V. |
| Abstract: | The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region is one of the most water-scarce in the world, with agriculture accounting for 65% of total water use. This challenge is compounded by land degradation and the intensifying impacts of climate change. In response, the Al Murunah project—meaning “flexibility” in Arabic—was launched to enhance water security through resilient nature-based water solutions (RNBWS) in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT). Al Murunah is a five-year initiative funded by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), led by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) in partnership with the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The project promotes the integration of nature-based solutions for water (NBSW) with agricultural water management (AWM) to address water scarcity and build resilience across the region. This report, titled Development of a Capability and Skillset Framework for the Implementation of Resilient Nature-Based Water Solutions (RNBWS) in the MENA Region, defines the capacities—knowledge, skills, and capabilities—required to implement RNBWS in the four project countries. These capacities form the foundation of the RNBWS Capacity Framework, a key output designed to guide implementation, support pilot initiatives, inform upscaling efforts, and serve as a tool for institutional analysis. The report is structured around three core components: • Development of stakeholder personas representing typical RNBWS users; • Identification of the capacities required by these personas for successful implementation; • Development of an RNBWS Training and Certification Framework to guide the review of training and certification processes for the identified capacities of personas in the project countries and through remote online platforms. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2025–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iwmirp:369096 |
| By: | Emel Sati Hacihasanoglu; Nursel Yavuzarslan; Erdal Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada, para politikasinin tuketimi etkileyen kanallarindan biri olan nakit akisi kanalina odaklanilmakta ve bu kanalin Turkiye’de nasil isledigi ortaya konulmaktadir. Calismada, yazindaki diger calismalardan farkli olarak, faiz indirim dongusunde konut kredi faiz orani sabit olsa dahi nakit akis kanalinin calisabilecegi gosterilmektedir. Faiz indirim dongusunun ongorulmeyen yuksek enflasyona yol actigi durumda bireylerin ongordugumuz harcanabilir gelirlerinden tuketime donusebilecek bir alan olusmaktadir. Ayrica, nakit akisi kanalinin yuksek enflasyon donemi boyunca daha fazla alan yaratarak tuketime goreli yuksek katki sagladigi gosterilmistir. Acilan alanin, konut kredisi aylik taksit tutari ne kadar buyuk ve gelir artisi ne kadar yuksekse o kadar fazla oldugu gosterilmistir. Analiz sonuclarina gore nakit akisinin ozel tuketim harcamalarina birikimli katkisi 2022 yilindan itibaren artmaya baslamis, 2024 yili icin ise %6, 9 olarak hesaplanmistir. [EN] This study focuses on the cash-flow channel, one of the monetary policy channels affecting consumption, and examines how this channel works in Türkiye. Unlike other studies in the literature, our study demonstrates that the cash-flow channel can still work during a monetary easing cycle, even when mortgage loan interest rates are fixed. In cases where the interest rate easing cycle leads to unanticipated high inflation, individuals' estimated incomes increase, reducing the ratio of mortgage interest payments to income and creating room for consumption. Additionally, the study shows that the cash-flow channel contributes significantly to consumption by creating more space during periods of high inflation. The size of the space created by cash flow is found to be larger when both the monthly mortgage payment and income rise are higher. According to the analysis, the cumulative contribution of cash flow from housing loans to consumption began increasing after 2022 and is estimated to be 6.9% for 2024. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2516 |
| By: | Ms. Yevgeniya Korniyenko; Weining Xin |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of cross-border investments, including by Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs), in driving economic growth and diversification of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Utilizing novel deal-level datasets, we analyze GCC cross-border investment portfolios across various dimensions such as time, geography, and industry. We show that recent years have witnessed an increase in GCC cross-border investments. While the geographic distribution of these investments remains diverse and balanced across different regions, both inward and outward investments are increasingly directed towards the services sector. The empirical results demonstrate a significant positive relationship between both cross-border inward and domestic investments on GCC real non-hydrocarbon GDP. Notably, the medium-term increase in real non-hydrocarbon GDP resulting from inward investments is three times larger than that from domestic investments. This amplification could be explained by increased inward investments in high-growth services sectors. Although domestic investments, including by SWFs, are contributing to the GCC economic transformation, their efficiency could be further enhanced by focusing on strategic partnerships with international investors and fostering a more transparent and competitive business environment. Recent shift in GCC investments in renewable and clean energy projects will further support diversification efforts. |
| Keywords: | Economic Diversification; Foreign Investments; Middle East; Sovereign Wealth Funds; Gulf Cooperation Council; Resource-Rich Countries |
| Date: | 2025–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/174 |
| By: | Belhaj Fraj, M.; Rabi, A.; Murrar, A.; Samhan, S.; Fragaszy, S. R.; Ruckstuhl, S.; Abdelwahab, N.; Samarasekara, V. |
| Abstract: | This baseline study draws on Resilient Nature-Based Water Solutions (RNBWS) pilot interventions undertaken by the Al Murunah project in the upper catchment of Wadi Al-Fari’a, specifically in the communities of Ras Al-Fari’a, Wadi Al-Fari’a, and the Fari’a Refugee Camp in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT). It provides a detailed account of the 2023 analysis of the biophysical, socio-economic, agricultural, and policy contexts shaping the technical, social, and market design of the pilot, as well as broader project activities, including capacity building, training, and policy engagement. The study presents a synthesis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) related to RNBWS in Wadi Al-Fari’a, and outlines strategies for the planned pilot, alongside general recommendations for advancing RNBWS and the integrated development of agricultural and water resources in the West Bank. By linking local insights to policy priorities, Al Murunah aims to forge a strategic pathway for implementing RNBWS, strengthening agricultural resilience, and fostering inclusive, sustainable socio-economic growth. The pilot and its recommendations seek to position the project’s approach as a scalable model for sustainable development across the OPT, contributing to the Palestinian Authority’s vision for water security, food production, and effective climate change adaptation. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Climate Change |
| Date: | 2025–08–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iwmirp:369084 |
| By: | Ayca Topaloglu-Bozkurt; Tuba Pelin Sumer; Suheyla Ozyildirim |
| Abstract: | Using granular data from the Turkish banking system, we exploit a large currency depreciation in 2018 to explore whether, and how, banks’ cross-border FX borrowing evolved after the exchange rate shock. Our bank-level empirical findings show that a currency shock has a significant and negative impact on cross-border interbank FX borrowing, but the large foreign currency buffers held by banks mitigate the negative impact of the crisis on their FX borrowing. Furthermore, we find that the impact differs depending on the characteristics of the banks or the regional diversification of the lender banks. Sub-sample analysis via connectedness shows that the mitigating impact of an FX buffer is lower for strongly connected banks, while the analysis by business types indicates that the impact is higher for development banks. On the other hand, we find that the cross-border FX borrowing of resident banks decreases with the FX shock if the lender bank is located in advanced economies, but it increases if the lender banks are from emerging economies or the Middle East. Our results show the importance of diversification of funding partners to alleviate the negative impacts of an abrupt foreign currency depreciation on FX borrowing of the resident banks, i.e. to have a stable source of foreign exchange funding. |
| Keywords: | Cross-border FX borrowing, Currency shock, Connectedness, Diversification of Funding Partners |
| JEL: | G21 L14 F34 G15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2513 |
| By: | Adar, Sinem; Aksoy, Hürcan Aslı; Ålander, Minna; Bueno, Alberto; Chiriatti, Alessia; Dimou, Antonia; Levin, Paul T.; Monceau, Nicolas; Seufert, Günter; Soler, Eduard; Vorotnyuk, Maryna; Wasilewski, Karol |
| Abstract: | Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine marked the start of a prolonged confrontation between Moscow and Europe - one that is fundamentally reshaping the parameters of European security. The return of Donald Trump to the White House and his stated intent to quickly end the war in Ukraine and put pressure on the European allies including Ukraine to assume greater responsibility for their security is a second critical inflection point. In this rapidly evolving security landscape, Europe faces the dual challenge of ensuring the long-term security of Ukraine, the Baltic states and the Black Sea region and strengthening the European Union's defence and military capabilities. Turkey has a strategically significant, albeit politically contentious role to play within both contexts. What kind of an alignment might there be between the EU and Turkey, given that Ankara is simultaneously a partner, competitor, rival and even threat to EU member states? For its part, the European Union should adopt a gradual, pragmatic and interest driven approach to Turkey's integration into the changing European security architecture. It should aim to reinforce the role of Europe - including Turkey - as a strategic and capable security actor while making clear that enhanced defence cooperation with Ankara and Turkey's stalled EU accession process are two separate issues. |
| Keywords: | European Union, EU, Turkey, Poland, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Germany, France, Greece, European security, European security architecture, EU's defence and military capabilities, NATO, Nato, NATO's eastern flank, NATO's southern flank, war in Ukraine, security of Ukraine, Russia, USA, Donald Trump, Black Sea region, Turkey's EU accession process, defence and security cooperation with Turkey, European Council, European Commission, European Parliament |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:324892 |
| By: | Okan Akarsu; Emrehan Aktug; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | We conducted a survey of Turkish firms, using randomized treatments to provide varied information about inflation in a high-inflation environment. By matching the survey data with administrative firm-level data on employment, sales, credit, and foreign exchange transactions, we explore the impact of exogenous variations in inflation expectations on firms’ behavior, borrowing decisions, and expectations. Our findings are summarized in seven facts: (i) information treatments are effective at generating exogenous variation in inflation expectations, even when inflation is high; (ii) the pass-through to firms’ own price, wage, and cost expectations is strong, reaching up to 60%; (iii) firms adopt a supply-side interpretation of inflation—lower inflation expectations make them more optimistic; (iv) firms with lower inflation expectations decrease credit demand by approximately 3% for a 1 percentage point decline in expected inflation, shifting from long-term to short-term loans to avoid higher perceived costs; (v) they dollarize their liabilities by increasing their share of FX-denominated debt; (vi) they de-dollarize their assets by decreasing their net foreign currency holdings; and (vii) they increase their real activity, leading to higher employment and sales, and lower inventory. |
| Keywords: | Expectations, Firms, RCT, High inflation, Macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E12 E24 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2512 |
| By: | Demirhan Demir; Selcuk Gul |
| Abstract: | [EN] This study aims to construct a Composite Labor Market Index (CLMI) to better understand the recent mixed signals from the labor market indicators. We follow the principal component analysis to construct the CLMI where the first component explains almost half of the common variation in a large dataset, consisting of 23 labor market indicators. While the unemployment rate and the broader unemployment rate may provide mixed signals regarding labor market conditions in some periods, our index offers a clearer assessment. Additionally, our index allows for the decomposition of the contributions from each set of labor market indicators to the overall labor market conditions over time. The results suggest that, in 2024, labor market conditions are stronger than what the broader unemployment indicators imply, yet weaker than what the main unemployment rate indicates. [TR] Bu calismanin amaci, son donemde isgucu piyasasi gostergelerinden gelen karisik sinyalleri daha iyi anlamak icin Bilesik Isgucu Piyasasi Endeksi'ni (BIPE) olusturmaktir. BIPE'yi olustururken, 23 isgucu piyasasi gostergesinden olusan genis bir veri setindeki ortak degiskenligin neredeyse yarisini aciklayan birinci bilesen kullanilmaktadir. Issizlik orani ve genis tanimli issizlik oranlari bazi donemlerde isgucu piyasasi kosullari hakkinda farkli sinyaller verse de endeksimiz daha net bir degerlendirme sunmaktadir. Ayrica endeksimiz, her bir isgucu piyasasi gostergesi grubunun zaman icinde genel isgucu piyasasi kosullarina katkilarinin ayristirilmasina da olanak saglamaktadir. Sonuclar, 2024 yilinda isgucu piyasasi kosullarinin, genis tanimli issizlik gostergelerinin isaret ettiginden daha guclu, ancak temel issizlik oraninin imâ ettiginden daha zayif oldugunu gostermektedir. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2517 |
| By: | Seyhan Sevde Cagiran (CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Amélie Bourceret (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Sophie Drogué (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | The main challenge facing the agricultural landscapes of the Mediterranean and North African regions is not only climate change, but also the degradation of ecosystem services and the loss of biodiversity. The aim of this study is to investigate the adoption of agroecology as a solution to these problems by farmers in a case study in Algeria. To begin with, we determine the farmers' position in the agricultural system and their relationship with other components of the system using Ostrom's Social-Ecological System framework (SESF) (2009). In this step, we also identify the factors that affect farmers' decision-making processes. Subsequently, we enhance an existing bio-economic model with the outcomes of the previous step in order to assess farmer's adoption to agroecology. Finally, using bio-economic model we will determine policy scenarios to accelerate of agroecological transition. |
| Keywords: | Bioeconomic model, Agroecology, North Africa |
| Date: | 2024–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05216202 |
| By: | Okan Akarsu |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I explore the spillover effects of frontier firms on other firms in Türkiye, using a detailed administrative dataset with firm-level data on balance sheets, inter-firm transactions, and employment. I review key production function estimators, evaluate their assumptions and performance using a large dataset of Turkish firms, and apply estimated productivity to identify frontier firms and assess their influence on laggard firms' performance. Additionally, I contribute to the empirical literature by exploring the spillover and network effects of frontier firms on laggard firms, as well as examining the productivity convergence of laggard firms to frontier firms. The analysis reveals three key findings: (i) Frontier firms generate positive spillover effects within sectors, which enhance sales, employment, exports, and asset growth among laggard firms; (ii) detailed firm-to-firm invoice data reveals that a higher share of frontier firms in a firm’s network significantly boosts investment, net sales, and productivity growth; and (iii) laggard firms show faster productivity growth, with substantial variation across firm types and industries. |
| Keywords: | Spillover effect, Frontier firm, Total factor productivity, Production function estimation, Semiparametric estimator, Laggard firm dynamics |
| JEL: | C13 C14 C23 D24 D40 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2511 |