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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Rachid Maghniwi (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat); Mustapha Oukassi (University Mohamed V, Rabat) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effectiveness of the Asset-Liability Management (ALM) approach in improving the profitability of Moroccan banks during the COVID-19 crisis. Faced with unprecedented challenges posed by the pandemic, the Moroccan banking sector had to adapt quickly to maintain its financial stability and profitability. Our research focuses on the period 2019-2022, encompassing the pre-crisis, acute crisis, and immediate post-crisis phases. Using the Structural Equation Modeling method, we analyzed a comprehensive set of financial and operational data collected from the eight main Moroccan banks, representing over 80% of the national banking market. Our findings suggest that ALM played a crucial role in stabilizing bank profitability during this turbulent period, with a significant positive correlation between ALM implementation effectiveness and several performance indicators, including net interest margin, return on assets (ROA), and return on equity (ROE). Banks that adopted more sophisticated ALM approaches demonstrated a better ability to manage liquidity and interest rate risks, with larger banks benefiting more from their ALM systems. This research contributes to filling both theoretical and empirical gaps in the literature, providing a framework for understanding ALM effectiveness in the context of a global crisis. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude examine l'efficacité de l'approche de gestion actif-passif (ALM) dans l'amélioration de la rentabilité des banques marocaines pendant la crise de la COVID-19. Face aux défis sans précédent posés par la pandémie, le secteur bancaire marocain a dû s'adapter rapidement pour maintenir sa stabilité financière et sa rentabilité. Notre recherche se concentre sur la période 2019-2022, englobant les phases pré-crise, crise aiguë et post-crise immédiate. Utilisant la méthode des équations structurelles, nous avons analysé un ensemble complet de données financières et opérationnelles collectées auprès des huit principales banques marocaines, représentant plus de 80% du marché bancaire national. Nos résultats suggèrent que l'ALM a joué un rôle crucial dans la stabilisation de la rentabilité bancaire durant cette période turbulente, avec une corrélation positive significative entre l'efficacité de l'implémentation de l'ALM et plusieurs indicateurs de performance, notamment la marge nette d'intérêt, le rendement des actifs (ROA) et le rendement des capitaux propres (ROE). Les banques ayant adopté des approches ALM plus sophistiquées ont démontré une meilleure capacité à gérer les risques de liquidité et de taux d'intérêt, les grandes banques ayant particulièrement bénéficié de leurs systèmes ALM. Ces résultats soulignent l'importance de l'ALM dans la gestion des risques et l'optimisation des performances financières, particulièrement en période de crise. |
| Keywords: | ALM, banques marocaines, COVID-19, rentabilité, gestion des risques, performance financière, liquidité, Moroccan banks, profitability, risk management, financial performance, liquidity |
| Date: | 2025–05–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05081332 |
| By: | Alan Fuchs; Beenish Amjad; Loayza Grisi, Mario Julian |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the redistributive impact of fiscal policy—specifically taxes and transfers—on poverty and inequality in eight countries in the Middle East and North Africa: the Arab Republic of Egypt, Djibouti, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and the West Bank and Gaza. Utilizing the Commitment to Equity framework, the analysis evaluates how fiscal interventions alter income distribution across these diverse national contexts. The results indicate that direct cash transfers and social assistance programs are generally effective in reducing poverty and shielding vulnerable populations, while in-kind benefits—particularly in education and healthcare—significantly contribute to mitigating income inequality. In contrast, generalized subsidies, especially in the energy sector, are fiscally burdensome and largely regressive, offering limited equity gains. Indirect taxes, although important for revenue generation, often exacerbate income disparities. The study underscores the need for comprehensive fiscal reforms, including the expansion of well-targeted transfers, adoption of progressive taxation, and reallocation of inefficient subsidies toward investments in human capital. Successful initiatives, such as Egypt’s Takaful and Karama and Jordan’s Takaful and bread subsidy compensation programs, illustrate scalable models of effective redistribution. Moreover, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s progressive tax policies highlight viable pathways to equitable revenue mobilization. Strengthening inv estment in education and health is essential for promoting long-term equity, enhancing upward mobility, and supporting inclusive and sustainable development across the region. |
| Date: | 2025–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11131 |
| By: | Zakaria Savon (Faculty of Legal, Economic and Social Sciences- Souissi Mohamed V University of Rabat, Morocco) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, Morocco has witnessed a notable and troubling increase in non-performing loans (NPLs). Data from Bank Al-Maghrib, the central bank of Morocco, reveals that nonperforming loans accounted for over 8% of the total credit volume in 2022.These loans present significant challenges, not only for the resilience of the banking sector but also because they can result in tighter credit conditions, making it increasingly difficult for businesses and consumers to obtain financing. This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the impact of non-performing loans on credit supply within the Moroccan banking system, covering the period from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Findings from the ARDL model indicate that the rate of non-performing loans substantially impedes credit availability, both in the short term and the long term. This underscores the critical relationship between financial stability and economic stability. |
| Keywords: | Non-performing loans, Credit supply, Moroccan banking system, ARDL |
| Date: | 2025–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05060821 |
| By: | Mohammed Hajjimi (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah [Fès]) |
| Abstract: | Abstract : This paper presents the results of an empirical study carried out on a sample of 102 Moroccan consumers to measure the impact of the degree of religiosity on the intention to purchase interest-bearing loans using a closed questionnaire and a four-dimensional measurement scale. The results were processed and analysed using SPSS software. They validate only one of the four hypotheses provided in the literature review, i.e. that religious feelings, religious practices and religious knowledge have no impact on the intention to purchase interest-bearing credit, and that only the scope of consumers' beliefs impacts their intention to purchase credit from traditional banks. Towards the end, we present a way of exploring the managerial implications and innovations of the discoveries for the banking fabric in Morocco. Keywords : purchasing behaviour, managerial innovations in banking, consumer religiosity, purchase intention, interest-bearing credit. JEL code : M30, D91, G41, Z12 Type of paper : empirical research |
| Abstract: | Résumé : Ce document présente les résultats d'une étude empirique menée auprès d'un échantillon composé de 102 consommateurs marocains visant à mesurer l'impact du degré de la religiosité sur l'intention d'achat des crédits à intérêt à l'aide d'un questionnaire fermé, tout en adoptant une échelle de mesure avec quatre dimensions. Les résultats ont été traités et analysés sous le logiciel SPSS. Ils valident une seule hypothèse parmi les quatre hypothèses fournies lors de la consultation de la revue de littérature, c'est-à-dire que les sensations religieuses, les pratiques religieuses et les connaissances religieuses n'impactent pas l'intention d'achat de crédit à intérêt, et que seule la portée des croyances des consommateurs impacte leur intention d'achat vis-à-vis les crédits des banques classiques. Vers la fin, nous présentons la manière d'explorer les implications et innovations managériales des découvertes pour le tissu bancaire au Maroc. Mots-clés : comportement d'achat, innovations managériales bancaires, religiosité du consommateur, intention d'achat, crédit à intérêt. JEL code : M30, D91, G41, Z12 Type du papier : recherche empirique. |
| Keywords: | Comportement d'achat, innovations managériales bancaires, religiosité du consommateur, Intention d'achat, crédit à intérêt, managerial innovations in banking, consumer religiosity, Purchase intention, interest-bearing credit |
| Date: | 2025–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05069531 |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Abushama, Hala; Dorosh, Paul A.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum |
| Abstract: | The conflict in Sudan erupted on April 15, 2023. Originating from competition over resources and political power, it emerged as direct warfare between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. It has escalated into a crisis with profound impacts on the nation’s socio-economic fabric. More specifically, the conflict has led to a severe humanitarian crisis, disrupted agrifood systems across the country, restricted economic activity, and curtailed the livelihoods of millions. The conflict continues to impede access to essential services and markets, resulting in significant scarcity of life-saving goods and services. As of March 2024, 14, 790 Sudanese have been killed (Figure 1), and 8.4 million have been displaced, of which1.7 million have sought refuge in other countries. |
| Keywords: | armed conflicts; food security; policies; economic aspects; agrifood systems; markets; war; Sudan; Northern Africa; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:140693 |
| By: | Fatih Kansoy |
| Abstract: | This research presented an empirical investigation of the determinants of the net interest margin in Turkish Banking sector with a particular emphasis on the bank ownership structure. This study employed a unique bank-level dataset covering Turkey`s commercial banking sector for the 2001-2012. Our main results are as follows. Operation diversity, credit risk and operating costs are important determinants of margin in Turkey. More efficient banks exhibit lower margin and also price stability contributes to lower margin. The effect of principal determinants such as credit risk, bank size, market concentration and inflation vary across foreign-owned, state-controlled and private banks. At the same time, the impacts of implicit interest payment, operation diversity and operating cost are homogeneous across all banks |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.04384 |
| By: | Sanae Ait Jillali (Université Hassan 1er [Settat], Ecole Nationale de Commerce et Gestion - Settat); Belkasseh Mohammed (Université Hassan 1er [Settat], Ecole Nationale de Commerce et Gestion - Settat) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to analyze the phenomenon of underpricing in the Moroccan market. When underpricing occurs, investors can get a positive initial return. Underpricing is then the practice of listing an initial public offering (IPO) at a price lower than its real value in the stock market. This is a well-documented and widely studied anomaly in finance, and was explained by several theories such as Information Asymmetry (Winner's Curse), Signaling Theory, Agency Theory, and other Behavioral Theories. Many works on the international scale highlighted the prevalence of underpricing in IPOs, discussing factors influencing the decision to underprice and its impact on market efficiency. This study examines the evolution of initial returns (both adjusted and non-adjusted) and tests the computation of initial returns (IRs) using the Student's t-test as the data analysis method, to affirm or reject the null hypothesis. The data are sourced from the prospectus and financial statements of companies after their Initial Public Offering (IPO). The sample consists of 35 companies listed on the Moroccan stock market from 2004 to 2020. The findings confirm the phenomenon of initial underpricing in the Moroccan context, consistent with international studies. However, our work suggests that further research is needed to explore the factors contributing to this underpricing, particularly those related to the characteristics of Moroccan companies and the economic conditions surrounding the IPO event, both pre- and post-IPO. This opens avenues for future research on the factors that drive the decision to underprice and how this affects the Moroccan market efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Moroccan Capital Market, Initial public offering, Initial returns, Underpricing. |
| Date: | 2025–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05061870 |
| By: | Francisca Castro; Tilman Brück; Wolfgang Stojetz; Hadi Jaafar |
| Abstract: | When refugees flee abroad, they carry the legacy of their traumatic experiences across borders. While there are over 43 million refugees worldwide, the long-term effects of conflict exposure on their well-being remain poorly understood. This paper examines how pre-displacement exposure to violent conflict and environmental stressors shapes the long-term social well-being of Syrian refugees in Jordan, focusing on life satisfaction, social trust, and social safety nets. Using representative survey data from refugees living in Jordan and conflict events, as well as remote sensing environmental data from Syria, we distinguish between exposure to conflict events and conflict fatalities, revealing distinct effects. While exposure to conflict events has no systematic impact on social outcomes, exposure to conflict fatalities significantly reduces life satisfaction and weakens social safety nets. These effects are critically mediated by mental health, with depressive symptoms significantly explaining the negative impact of conflict fatalities on life satisfaction. Our findings also highlight gendered dimensions: individuals living in female-majority households experience particularly severe declines in life satisfaction, whereas those in male-majority households show greater deterioration in social safety nets. Having experienced droughts before leaving Syria further amplifies the negative effects of conflict, particularly on social safety nets. These results highlight the importance of considering intersecting vulnerabilities due to gender, environmental stress, and conflict exposure when designing support systems for forcibly displaced populations. |
| Keywords: | climate, conflict, jordan, mental health, refugees, social well-being, syria |
| JEL: | D74 D91 F22 I12 I31 O15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:431 |
| By: | Imad Talhartit (Université Hassan 1er [Settat], Ecole Nationale de Commerce et Gestion - Settat, Laboratory of Finance, Audit and Organizational Governance Research); Sanae Ait Jillali (Université Hassan 1er [Settat], Ecole Nationale de Commerce et Gestion - Settat, Laboratory of Finance, Audit and Organizational Governance Research); Mounime El Kabbouri (Université Hassan 1er [Settat], Ecole Nationale de Commerce et Gestion - Settat, Laboratory of Finance, Audit and Organizational Governance Research) |
| Abstract: | In today's data-driven economy, predicting stock market behavior has become a key focus for both finance professionals and academics. Traditionally reliant on historical and economic data, stock price forecasting is now being enhanced by AI technologies, especially Deep Learning and Natural Language Processing (NLP), which allow the integration of qualitative data like news sentiment and investor opinions. Deep Learning uses multi-layered neural networks to analyze complex patterns, while NLP enables machines to interpret human language, making it useful for extracting sentiment from media sources. Though most research has focused on developed markets, emerging economies like Morocco offer a unique context due to their evolving financial systems and data limitations. This study takes a theoretical and exploratory approach, aiming to conceptually examine how macroeconomic indicators and sentiment analysis can be integrated using deep learning models to enhance stock price prediction in Morocco. Rather than building a model, the paper reviews literature, evaluates data sources, and identifies key challenges and opportunities. Ultimately, the study aims to bridge AI techniques with financial theory in an emerging market setting, providing a foundation for future empirical research and interdisciplinary collaboration. |
| Keywords: | Stock Price Prediction, Deep Learning, Natural Language Processing (NLP), Sentiment Analysis, Macroeconomic Indicators, Emerging Markets, Moroccan Financial Market |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05094029 |
| By: | MENG, WEI; Zhang, Xiaoyin |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the development of dynamics in the Israel-Iran conflict, with a forecast for 2024, using military wisdom inspired by Sun Tzu's Art of War in combination with genetic algorithms and complexity theory. The research points out how a variety of strategies undertaken result in combat resource consumption, morale, changes in international politics, and the creation of a multisegmented simulation in war between Israel and Iran. The research methodology includes a genetic algorithm that optimizes strategies, a nonlinear interaction analysis of complexity theory, and a calculus model that simulates resource depletion and morale changes. The results indicate that the rapid strike strategy of Israel participates in short-term superiority and deteriorates logistically and in morale as the duration of the war lengthens. On the contrary, Iran can flexibly adapt to a long war of attrition by using guerrilla warfare and asymmetric warfare. The result of the study indicates that Israel's capability for combat and supply lines would be weakened by the long war strategy, and asymmetric tactics by Iran hold an even higher advantage in this type of conflict; it must serve as a reference for strategic decision-making of nations in the future when confronting similar conflicts. |
| Date: | 2025–05–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:j42ra_v1 |