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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Siddig, Khalid; Abushama, Hala; Intini, Vito; AlAzzawi, Shireen; Adam, Saef Alnasr; Terefe, Fekadu; Fallaha, Hasan; Merouani, Walid; Durrani, Akbar; Nohra, Nada |
| Abstract: | Eighteen months of war have deeply affected urban households in Sudan: 31 percent have been displaced, full-time employment has plummeted by half, over 70 percent of the urban households in Sudan had all or some of school-aged kids stop attending school, and only one out of seven urban households can access full health services—concluded a new joint study from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), launched today. "The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households" study provides a comprehensive assessment of how the ongoing conflict affects urban households in Sudan. With two-thirds of the fighting concentrated in cities of over 100, 000 people, understanding impacts of the war on urban livelihoods is crucial for addressing both immediate economic challenges and long-term development obstacles. The study is based on analyses of a comprehensive survey of urban households across the country that both organizations conducted between May 2024 and July 2024, including 3, 000 households. |
| Keywords: | socioeconomic impact; armed conflicts; urban areas; households; surveys; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resrep:159599 |
| By: | Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.; Dorosh, Paul A.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum |
| Abstract: | This report synthesizes the key discussions and outcomes of the “Navigating Sudan’s Conflict: Research Insights and Policy Implications” conference, held on March 5, 2024, in Nairobi, Kenya. Convening a diverse group of experts in research, development, and humanitarian efforts, the conference aimed to explore actionable solutions for the socioeconomic challenges triggered by Sudan’s ongoing conflict. Participants at the conference delved into the conflict’s adverse impacts on agriculture, markets, employment, and food security, as well as its wider regional impacts. Notably, the conference findings underscore the urgent need for supporting smallholder farmers, stabilizing markets, generating employment opportunities, and enhancing agricultural productivity within a comprehensive recovery strategy. Furthermore, conference participants stressed the importance of innovative data gathering, collaborative policy formulation, international support, and coordination to ensure effective interventions. This report succinctly presents the interventions discussed in the conference’s research and panel discussion sessions, particularly the pivotal insights offered in each to guide policy that will build peace, strengthen resilience, and relaunch and accelerate human and economic development efforts in Sudan. |
| Keywords: | armed conflicts; data collection; policy innovation; food security; agriculture; resilience; markets; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sssppn:140775 |
| By: | Shokry, Nada; Yassa, Basma; Kurdi, Sikandra |
| Abstract: | Increasing formal employment for youth and women is a key goal of the Forsa pilot graduation intervention and Egyptian government policy in general. As detailed in Forsa evaluation reports, matching Takaful beneficiaries with jobs in the private sector is a major challenge on the household and on the beneficiary level. In this policy note, however, we examine the challenges from the perspective of potential employers. We review literature of the market failures that may contribute to difficulties with job matching in rural Egypt and present results from a small telephone survey of Forsa employers. |
| Keywords: | employment; rural areas; women; youth; Egypt; Africa; Eastern Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:159533 |
| By: | Ante Ivčević; Daria Povh Škugor; Maria Snoussi; Michaël Karner; Matthieu Kervyn; Jean Huge |
| Abstract: | Integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) is a policy framework that aims to achieve sustainable development in the context of limited space and resources of (densely populated) coastal areas, by balancing environmental protection, societal needs, and economic development. In this paper, we first reflect on key components influencing the success of ICZM. Second, we compare our understanding to the process of preparation of a coastal plan for the Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima region in Morocco. Finally, we extend and generalize our conclusions to ICZM as a relevant policy framework, by identifying factors that influence the context-specific interpretation of ICZM in Morocco. We argue that ICZM depends on the integration, implementation, coordination between science and policy, and appropriate governance. In the Moroccan case, a variety of institutions first need to agree on the governance structure and priorities, as a base for a clear direction for the regional ICZM. This calls for a change of stakeholder engagement for certain steering institutions and leadership by ‘wilaya’. The coastal plan preparation process showed a lack of balance between stakeholder participation and institutional coordination, and increased bureaucratization which covers accountability for decision-making. Although coastal governance is supported by the national government, it is still unknown to what extent it is supported at the regional level which oversees the ICZM. We conclude that besides leadership, political support, and institutional commitment, broader stakeholder engagement is crucial for the decisions that shape the future of the coastal zone, which indicates that governance is the most important success factor for ICZM. |
| Keywords: | Coastal planning; Governance; Integrated coastal zone management; Stakeholder engagement |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/390889 |
| By: | Sébastien Dambrine (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Abstract: | Cognitive health among older adults remains understudied in middle-income countries. This study provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between social disadvantage and memory impairment in individuals aged 60 and over in Morocco. Using data from the 2014 Moroccan General Population and Housing Census (RGPH), we construct a weighted social disadvantage score inspired by the model of Castiel et al., combining ten vulnerability dimensions including, hancicap, education, housing conditions, access to cultural goods, and occupational status. We assess the effects of this score alongside illiteracy and educational attainment on the probability of reporting memory impairment using a hierarchical Bayesian model corrected for endogeneity, instrumented by age, sex, and region of residence. Results show that a one standard deviation increase in the social disadvantage score is associated with a 312% increase in the probability of reporting memory impairment. Illiteracy also has a strong effect (+61%), greater than that of educational level (+6.3%). These findings highlight the relevance of a multidimensional approach to social vulnerability in cognitive decline prevention policies, particularly through targeted interventions for the most exposed older populations. |
| Abstract: | La santé cognitive des personnes âgées demeure peu étudiée dans les pays à revenu intermédiaire. Cette étude propose une analyse empirique du lien entre précarité sociale et troubles mnésiques chez les personnes de 60 ans et plus au Maroc. À partir des données du RGPH 2014, nous construisons un score pondéré de handicap social, inspiré du modèle de Castiel et al., combinant dix dimensions de vulnérabilité dont l'éducation, conditions de logement, accès aux biens culturels, statut professionnel… Nous étudions ainsi l'effet de ce score ainsi que de l'illettrisme et du niveau d'étude sur la probabilité de déclarer un handicap mnésique au moyen d'un modèle bayésien hiérarchique avec correction de l'endogénéité, instrumenté par l'âge, le sexe et la région de résidence. Les résultats montrent qu'une augmentation d'un écart type du score social est associée à une hausse de 312 % de la probabilité de handicap mnésique. L'illettrisme exerce également un effet marqué (+61 %), supérieur à celui du niveau d'études (+6, 3 %). Ces résultats soulignent l'intérêt d'une approche multidimensionnelle des vulnérabilités sociales dans les politiques de prévention du déclin cognitif, notamment à travers des actions ciblées auprès des populations âgées les plus exposées. |
| Keywords: | Social disadvantage, Social inequalities, Literacy, Elders, Cognitive health, Santé cognitive, Handicap social, Inégalités sociales, Alphabétisation, Personnes âgées |
| Date: | 2025–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-05085770 |
| By: | Shokry, Nada; Jovanovic, Nina; Kurdi, Sikandra; Hamdy, Adham; Elkaramany, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | Effective targeting strategies are vital for almost all development programs. Universal approaches which provide aid to all individuals regardless of need are not always feasible given limited budgets and varying development priorities. Conversely, targeting directs resources to those in greatest need, ensures efficient allocation while upholding principles of social justice, equality, and the right to assistance. This policy note summarizes the outcomes of a workshop held in Cairo on October 20, 2023, which brought together researchers, development practitioners, and policymakers. The high-level dialogue was part of the “Bridging Evidence and Policy” (BEP) seminar series, a collaborative initiative by the Egyptian Food Bank (EFB), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and the Sawiris Foundation for Social Development (SFSD). The BEP series serves as a platform for knowledge exchange and collaborative learning among donors, local and international implementers, and government representatives, with a focus on improving targeting in development projects. This note highlights the key discussions, offering insights into best practices and recommendations to enhance the effectiveness of program targeting. |
| Keywords: | targeting; development projects; Egypt; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masprn:168420 |
| By: | Allen IV, James; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Yassa, Basma |
| Abstract: | We study households’ choice between continued cash transfers and a new economic inclusion program—two global prevalent social protection programs—offered by the Egyptian government. Lower-than-expected early adoption of the new program is correlated with differing perceptions on its design. We randomize official messaging to households describing the new program’s (i) consumption support duration and (ii) income-earning potential. Both treatments increase respondents’ likelihood of recommending the new program. A theoretical model estimated using households’ perceptions of program design predicts interest in the new program, and how it diminishes with increasing effort costs, asset loss probability, risk aversion and loss aversion. |
| Keywords: | social protection; poverty; poverty reduction; cash transfers; Egypt; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:158340 |
| By: | Siddig, Khalid; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Abushama, Hala; Rakhy, Tarig |
| Abstract: | Sudan faces significant challenges due to prolonged conflicts, political instability, and economic disruptions. The ongoing conflict is disrupting market systems, exacerbating price volatility, and limiting the availability of essential commodities. Supply chain disruptions, insecurity, and infrastructure damage often restrict market access and contribute to rising food and fuel costs. In conflict-affected areas, transportation and security challenges intensify price disparities, making staple foods and key agricultural inputs increasingly unaffordable, especially for vulnerable populations. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is conducting a comprehensive market monitoring initiative across Sudan’s 18 states, tracking the prices and assessing the availability and quality of essential commodities, observing changes in exchange rates, and gathering qualitative insights from market actors. This report provides an overview of market trends in Sudan during February 2025. It will be updated monthly. |
| Keywords: | commodities; prices; market economies; shock; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:agrowp:174297 |
| By: | Kallström, Agneta; Parkki, Jan; Al Abdulla, Orwa; Häkkinen, Mikko; Juusola, Hannu; Kauhanen, Jussi |
| Abstract: | Healthcare workers have been deliberately targeted in the Syrian conflict by the warring parties. The motives for targeted violence against health care are often diverse. Research on the topic is challenging since perpetrators are usually unable or unwilling to participate in the research. This study investigates the perpetrators' possible motives through healthcare workers' experiences and views. To protect health care in contemporary modern complex conflicts, it is essential to understand the motives of perpetrators of violence. This qualitative study is based on semi-structured interviews (n = 25) with professionals who have worked in Syria between 2011 and 2017. Participants were selected using a snowball sampling method and interviewed in Turkey and Europe between 2016 and 2017. The analysis was performed using content analysis. Our results indicate that the violence conducted by GoS may aim to suppress all forms of dissent and critical voices, regardless of profession, underlining the political nature of the regime's actions. NSAGs, instead, seemed to perceive healthcare workers as valuable assets to exploit. ISIS's attitude towards HCWs was predominantly political-ideological, fostering deep suspicion and intent on punishing those participating in resistance. Both GoS and ISIS were seen to use violence against health care as part of a broader pattern targeting civilians. All warring parties were considered to distrust health care and humanitarian organizations deeply. |
| Date: | 2025–05–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:msqy5_v1 |
| By: | Pourabhari Langroudi, Ashkan; Farzi, Yosef; Almasi, Golaleh; Shokri Varniab, Zahra; Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen; Rezaei, Negar; Golestani, Ali; Ahmadi, Naser; Rezaei, Nazila; Ghasemi, Erfan; Azadnajafabad, Sina; Nasserinejad, Maryam; Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi; Kazemi, Ameneh; Yoosefi, Moein; Foroutan Mehr, Elmira; Haghshenas, Rosa; Moghaddam, Sahar Saeedi; Hajebi, Amirali; Mohammadi Fateh, Sahar; Moghimi, Mana; Momen Nia Rankohi, Azadeh; Afsari, Massomeh; Djalalinia, Shirin; Farzadfar, Farshad |
| Abstract: | Tobacco smoking is a significant global public health challenge, responsible for 8 million deaths annually. This study aimed to analyze the age of smoking initiation and its sociodemographic determinants among Iranian adults, based on data from the 2021 STEPwise approach to surveillance (STEPS) survey, to inform targeted public health interventions. The analysis of 27, 874 adults revealed that the average initiation ages for cigarette and hookah smoking were 22.2 years and 24.9 years, respectively. Men typically began smoking earlier than women, with average ages of 21.9 years for males and 27.7 years for females. No significant differences were observed in smoking initiation ages between rural and urban areas. Education level and marital status were also influential, with the youngest initiators having 7–12 years of education and being single. This study highlights the significant roles of gender, education, and urban-rural differences in smoking initiation in Iran. The findings underscore the need for targeted public health strategies conforming to the WHO’s MPOWER initiatives and the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). Increased investment in public health, focusing on education and preventive measures, is crucial to reduce early smoking initiation and its associated health risks, ultimately supporting broader health policy goals. |
| Keywords: | Age of onset, Tobacco Smoking, Tobacco Use, Cigarette smoking, Smoking Water pipes, Iran |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:318018 |
| By: | Mert Gokcu; Eren Sezer |
| Abstract: | [TR] Akaryakit fiyatlari esas olarak urun fiyati, kar marjlari, gelir payi ve vergilerin toplamindan olusmaktadir. Nihai akaryakit fiyatlarinin olusumunda urun fiyati ve vergi kalemleri on plana cikmaktadir. Tarihsel olarak, vergi kaleminin nihai fiyat icindeki payinin gerilemesi ve urun fiyatinin payinin artmasi akaryakit fiyatlari acisindan urun fiyat gelismelerinin daha yakindan incelenmesi ihtiyacini dogurmaktadir. Nitekim, maliyet ve beklenti kanallariyla tuketici enflasyonunu etkileme potansiyeline sahip akaryakit fiyatlarinin tahmin modellerinde dogru degiskenler ile temsil edilmesi oldukca onemlidir. Bu calisma, oncelikle ulkemizdeki akaryakit fiyat olusumu hakkinda bilgi saglamaktadir. Ayrica, akaryakit fiyat tahmin modellerinde her akaryakit grubuna ozgu urun fiyatlarinin kullanilmasinin Brent petrol fiyatlarinin kullanimindan daha fazla bilgi icerigi olup olmadigini ekonometrik ve istatistiksel yontemler ile test etmektedir. Aciklama gucu ile birlikte orneklem disi tahmin performanslari dikkate alindiginda model sonuclari akaryakit fiyatlarini aciklamada Brent petrol yerine her akaryakit grubuna ozgu urun fiyatlarinin modellerde kullanilmasinin ilave bir bilgi sagladigina isaret etmektedir. Dolayisiyla, akaryakit urunlerinin fiyatlarina yonelik ongoruler olusturulurken her akaryakit grubuna ozgu urun fiyat gelismelerinin dikkate alinmasinin onem arz ettigi degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] Fuel prices are essentially the sum of product price, profit margins, portion of income and taxes. Product price and tax items come to the fore in the formation of final fuel prices. Historically, the decline in the share of taxes in the final price and the increase in the share of product price in fuel price formation necessitate a closer analysis of product price developments. As a matter fact, it is crucial that fuel prices, which have the potential to affect consumer inflation through cost and expectation channels, are represented by the proper variables in forecasting models. This study provides information on fuel price formation in Türkiye. Moreover, it is tested with econometric and statistical methods whether the use of product prices specific to each fuel group in fuel price forecasting models is more informative than the use of Brent oil prices. Considering the explanatory power and out-of-sample forecasting performances, the model results indicate that the use of product prices specific to each fuel group in the models instead of Brent oil in explaining fuel prices provides additional information. Therefore, it is considered important to take into account product price developments specific to each fuel group when formulating forecasts for the prices of fuel products. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2507 |
| By: | Karachiwalla, Naureen; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Kurdi, Sikandra |
| Abstract: | Cash transfer programs are often effective at increasing household consumption in their early years, but impacts become more nuanced over time as the use of transfers varies. This paper examines the medium-term effects of Egypt’s f lagship cash transfer program, Takaful, on several measures of household wellbeing using a regression discontinuity (RD) design. Findings reveal no significant impacts on household consumption (total, food or non-food), but notable decreases in monthly wage income that are comparable in magnitude to the average monthly transfer. Employment patterns are suggestive of a decrease in hours worked in formal labour among men. There are positive effects on asset ownership, particularly productive assets, indicating a shift toward longer-term investments. Reductions in informal debt suggest improved financial health among beneficiaries and increases in enrollment in primary and preparatory school suggest increased human capital investment as well. These results underscore the potential of cash transfer programs to foster economic stability and investments in the future, even in the absence of significant immediate consumption effects. |
| Keywords: | cash transfers; consumption; assets; investment; schools; health; Egypt; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:168421 |
| By: | Isabelle Tsakok |
| Abstract: | Tunisia’s stagnant growth since the Jasmine Revolution (2011) illustrates that political democracy, when not anchored in economic democracy, is fragile at best. Economic democracy remains absent in Tunisia, as markets are concentrated and continue to be burdened by high barriers to entry and rules that favor a privileged few. These conditions stifle dynamism, competition, and ultimately, inclusive growth. The government’s decision to paper over these structural weaknesses through subsidies and other forms of social welfare, in an effort to maintain social peace, has proven costly and short-sighted. Under the ongoing threat of climate change, business-as- usual economic management is no longer a viable option. Droughts and floods are becoming more frequent and more destructive; sea-level rise is increasingly contaminating coastal aquifers with saltwater intrusions; and agricultural losses in key crops and livestock continue to undermine food security (FS) for millions. Tunisia’s leadership can turn this crisis into an opportunity— provided it succeeds in transforming the economy to meet the democratic aspirations of its people, both political and economic. This transformation must also ensure climate resilience, attract private investment (both domestic and foreign), and generate full employment. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbagri:pb_27-25 |
| By: | Abdelaziz, Fatma; Abay, Kibrom A. |
| Abstract: | Digital innovations hold significant potential to address multiple forms of market failures. However, their adoption remains low and heterogenous across Africa. Smallholder farmers face significant barriers in accessing essential information, limiting their ability to seize market opportunities and enhance profitability. While numerous digital tools have been developed for farmers in the region, most are still in pilot phases. The landscape of digital agricultural innovations in Egypt, the focus of this study, presents a similar outlook, whereby the Egyptian market has an array of innovative digital study, presents a similar outlook, whereby the Egyptian market has an array of innovative digital agricultural tools that offer different services to farmers (including digital advisory agricultural and market services). Several demand and supply-side factors contribute to the low adoption of these digital innovations and their disparities among smallholder farmers in Africa and Egypt. On the supply side, the most important challenges include inadequate public and private investment in complementary infra-structure, unsustainable business models, and a misalignment in the pace of innovation. The most important demand-side challenges include lack of digital literacy, insufficient context-specific needs assessments, digital divide, and accessibility, usability, and user trust. User confidence and trust in digital tools is another important but understudied topic.. However, we lack empirically grounded evidence on alternative supply and demand-side interventions to enhance the adoption and scaling of digital innovations in various contexts, including Egypt. |
| Keywords: | agricultural technology; digital agriculture; digital innovation; smallholders; Egypt; Africa; Eastern Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masprn:152495 |
| By: | Ben Youssef, Slim |
| Abstract: | We study the relationships between arms imports, political stability, oil exports, gross domestic product, and greenhouse gas emissions by considering a panel of eight oil-exporting countries of the Gulf region and yearly data between 2000 and 2023. Since there is cross-sectional dependence between our considered variables, second-generation panel unit root and cointegration tests are used. In addition, we use the cross-sectional distributed lag (CS-DL) methodology to estimate our long-run coefficients. Several new and interesting results are deduced. Arms imports increase political stability and economic growth. Political stability increases oil exports and reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Oil exports reduce arms imports. Oil-exporting Gulf countries are advised to continue importing and plan the production of high-tech weapons to strengthen their political stability. This latter enables them to elaborate and realize energy efficiency and renewable energy strategies, transforming them into producing and exporting renewable energy countries. |
| Keywords: | Arms imports; political stability; oil exports; greenhouse gas emissions; cross-sectional distributed lag; Gulf countries. |
| JEL: | C33 H56 O53 Q37 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124791 |
| By: | Morshed, Monzur; Wallace, Jack |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the experiences of Argentina, Ecuador, and Lebanon with dollarization as a response to monetary instability. Using historical analysis and regression results, it evaluates how full, partial, or de facto dollarization impacted inflation control, economic stability, and institutional resilience. Ecuador’s full dollarization in 2000 stabilized prices and reduced volatility, while Argentina’s hard peg without full commitment led to recurring crises. Lebanon’s unofficial dollarization collapsed amid financial mismanagement and loss of confidence. The study concludes that while dollarization can curb inflation, its success depends on credible governance and structural reforms; partial or unmanaged approaches can amplify economic fragility. |
| Date: | 2025–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ayh3e_v1 |
| By: | Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. (Sabanci University); Ersan, Yasar (Ankara University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the causal effect of education on financial outcomes related to stock markets and retirement savings, leveraging a major compulsory school reform and a unique data set covering the universe of investors in Türkiye. The estimates show no effects on participation rates, portfolio composition, or return performance. Moreover, education does not appear to influence behavioral biases or heuristics in retirement plans. The reform leads to a 3% increase in pension savings for females, with no significant effect on males. Higher earnings and increased employment with employer-sponsored pension plans appear as potential mechanisms driving the wealth effect. |
| Keywords: | Wealth, Retirement, Education, Investment Decisions |
| JEL: | I21 I26 G11 G41 G50 G53 J32 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17927 |