nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2025–05–19
eight papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi, Université d’Ottawa


  1. The impact of macroeconomic conditions on credit risk in the Moroccan banking system: empirical evidence from the ARDL model and the Toda-Yamamoto test By Zakaria Savon
  2. The Knowledge-Based Economy and the Economic Growth in Morocco: An Econometric Analysis By Zouhair Lakhyar; Meryem Moulim
  3. High stakes in the bazaar: cryptocurrency trading as a game of chance in Istanbul By Hassan, Wesam Adel
  4. The impact of external public debt on economic growth: an economic study: the case of Morocco By Amine Leghrari; Chakib Jerry; Mounir Jerry
  5. From the Sand Up: An Environmental and Demographic Explanation of the Economic, Legal and Political Structure of Arabia By Robert Allen
  6. Implementing CSR through sport events for Moroccan companies By Mohamed Amine Aboukinane; Sanae Biaz
  7. When rentier patronage breaks down: the politics of citizen outsiders on Gulf oil states’ labor markets By Hertog, Steffen
  8. Performance Evaluation of Islamic Banking Services Industry: Evidence from GCC By Hanif, Muhammad

  1. By: Zakaria Savon (Faculty of Legal, Economic and Social Sciences- Souissi Mohamed V University of Rabat, Morocco)
    Keywords: Credit risk, Non-performing loans, Macroeconomic determinants, Morocco
    Date: 2025–03–19
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05011828
  2. By: Zouhair Lakhyar (University Hassan II Mohammedia); Meryem Moulim (University Hassan II Mohammedia)
    Abstract: The main aim of this research is to study the impact of the determinants of the new economy or knowledge economy on economic growth in Morocco, for a period from 1990 to 2023 (a sample of 34 years). To do this, our analysis is based on the study of four key elements that define the knowledge economy domain according to the World Bank and the OECD. The four factors used are the education system, which is a key element of the knowledge-based economy, measured by expenditure on education, and is an essential element in the development of human capital; innovation, measured by the number of patent applications filed, which is a key indicator of the creativity and efficiency of innovation systems; and the use of information technologies, measured by the number of patent applications filed, which is an essential element in the development of human capital, the use of information and communication technologies (ICT), quantified by the number of Internet users, which are also essential for ensuring easy access to information, and finally, institutional quality, measured by the quality of regulation, which is a fairly important measure for ensuring a favorable environment for research and development. Through an econometric study, the results obtained indicate that although progress has been made in certain sectors such as education and digitalization, Morocco is still a long way from full integration into a knowledge-based economy. The Moroccan government must therefore redouble its efforts to improve its skills in each of these four sectors. And this greater involvement in the knowledge economy could help to accelerate Morocco's economic growth and optimize its place on the international stage.
    Abstract: Cette recherche vise principalement à étudier l'impact des déterminants de la nouvelle économie ou de l'économie de la connaissance sur la croissance économique au Maroc, pour une période de 1990 à 2023 (un échantillon de 34 ans). Pour ce faire, notre analyse se base sur l'étude de quatre éléments clés qui définissent le domaine de l'économie de la connaissance selon la Banque Mondiale et l'OCDE. Les quatre facteurs utilisés sont le système éducatif qui est un élément clé de l'économie basée sur la connaissance, mesurée par les dépenses en éducation, et qui constitue un élément essentiel dans le développement du capital humain, l'innovation, mesurée par le nombre de demandes de brevets déposés, qui est un indicateur principal de la créativité et de l'efficacité des systèmes d'innovation, l'utilisation des technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC), quantifié par le nombre d'utilisateurs d'internet, ces TIC sont aussi essentielles pour assurer un accès facile à l'information, et finalement, la qualité institutionnelle, mesurée par la qualité de la réglementation, qui est une mesure assez importante pour assurer un environnement favorable à la recherche et au développement. À travers une étude économétrique, les résultats obtenus indiquent que même si des avancées ont été faites dans certains secteurs comme l'éducation et la digitalisation, le Maroc est encore loin d'une intégration complète dans une économie orientée vers la connaissance. L'État marocain doit donc redoubler ses efforts pour améliorer ses compétences dans chacun de ces quatre secteurs. Et cette plus grande implication dans l'économie de la connaissance pourrait favoriser l'accélération de la croissance économique du Maroc et optimiser sa place sur le plan international.
    Keywords: Knowledge Economy, Economic Growth, Morocco, Economie de la connaissance, Croissance Economique, Maroc
    Date: 2025–03–07
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05011937
  3. By: Hassan, Wesam Adel
    Abstract: This article examines cryptocurrency trading in Turkey, focusing on the ‘gamblification’ of this emerging market. Based on 18 months of ethnographic research (2021-2022) conducted during an economic crisis exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the research reveals how Turks engaged with cryptocurrencies are considering the structural parallels between trading and gambling. The article also incorporates the perspective of Turkey's Directorate for Religious Affairs (Diyanet), which has declared cryptocurrency trading impermissible, highlighting the tension between contemporary financial practices and traditional Islamic frameworks. The article links the perception of cryptocurrency trading as a modern game of chance, as articulated by research participants, to Turkey's economic instability and their technological shift from traditional state-regulated games of chance (lotteries, betting on sports, and horse racing) to cryptocurrency trading. My ethnographic method brings new empirical data and qualitative analysis to understand the cultural and religious dynamics shaping this emergent financial phenomenon in the under-studied context of Turkey. I argue that cryptocurrency adoption in Turkey is driven by more than economic necessity; it reflects a cultural transformation valuing modernity and innovation. Many Turks view cryptocurrency as a viable alternative to traditional financial systems and a representation of the future of money. This shift signifies a departure from conventional monetary practices and reflects a collective idealisation of the future of finance. The article thus illuminates how Turkish individuals navigate risk and speculation during economic crises, demonstrating their adaptability in engaging with non-monetary financial markets.
    Keywords: cryptocurrency; gambling; Turkey; trading; Islam
    JEL: F3 G3 J1
    Date: 2025–03–24
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127631
  4. By: Amine Leghrari (Ph, D Student in Economic and Management, Departement of Economic and Management, Laboratory: Economic Sciences and Public Policy, Faculty of Economic and Management, Ibn Tofail University, Morocco); Chakib Jerry (Professor of Mathematics and Statistics at the Faculty of Juridical, Economic and Social Sciences, University of Moulay Ismail, Morocco, Departement of Economic and Management, Laboratory: Economic Sciences and Public Policy, Faculty of Economic and Management, Ibn Tofail University, Morocco); Mounir Jerry (Professor of Mathematics and Statistics at the Faculty of Economics and management, University of Ibn Tofail, Morocco, Departement of Economic and Management, Laboratory: Economic Sciences and Public Policy, Faculty of Economic and Management, Ibn Tofail University, Morocco)
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of external public debt on Morocco's economic growth from 1998 to 2022, using gross domestic product (GDP) as the dependent variable. Key explanatory variables include external public debt, gross national savings, external public debt service, and the investment rate. Employing annual time series data, the study adopts advanced econometric techniques such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests to assess stationarity, Johansen cointegration to identify long-run relationships, and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyze both short-and long-term dynamics. The results show a significant long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. External public debt and debt servicing negatively affect GDP, highlighting their detrimental impact on Morocco's economy. Conversely, gross national savings and the investment rate show potential for positive growth contributions. These findings align with global evidence and emphasize the critical need for effective external debt management. To enhance growth, policymakers should focus on optimizing debt allocation toward productive investments, diversifying exports to bolster foreign exchange reserves, and encouraging domestic savings to reduce external borrowing reliance. This study provides valuable insights into debt sustainability challenges and contributes to the discourse on public finance strategies for developing economies like Morocco.
    Keywords: Economic Growth Gross Domestic Product External Debt Public External Debt Public Service VECM Johansen Cointegration approach Morocco, Economic Growth, Gross Domestic Product, External Debt Public, External Debt Public Service, VECM, Johansen Cointegration approach, Morocco
    Date: 2025–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05021290
  5. By: Robert Allen
    Abstract: The paper uses basic theories of Marx on social structure and Malthus on demography to explain many features of Arabia in terms of the arid environment. The focus is on traditional Arabia, but it is argued that the same consideration continue to apply to modern Arabia. Beginning with the desert, it is argued that the only viable economic activity in ‘traditional’ Arabia was herding, and the only feasible system of property was communal ownership. Malthusian demography implies that the population expanded until the average product of labour equaled subsistence. Since labour was at subsistence and land had no value, neither could provide a tax base for a state. Hence, the social system was tribal–tribes had no budgets. There were two exceptions: International trade could be taxed, as in Yemen. Oasis land could also be taxed. Water meant that the average product of labour exceeded the marginal, which equaled subsistence. The difference was a taxable surplus. Some Bedouin tribes claimed ownership of oases and the implications are analyzed. The Saudi states that emerged beginning in the eighteenth century were Bedouin sheikhdoms writ large. Their finance came from oases like al-Hasa and al-Qatif near the Gulf Coast. With Shiite populations, Wahabism proved a useful ideology to justify their plundering by Sunni tribes from the interior. The finances of the Gulf Sheikhdoms are also analyzed as are the finances and investment strategies of the rulers of Oman as well as the role of slavery. Oman is a good example of a hydraulic civilization. Oil replaces water in modern Arabia, and guest workers replace slaves, but the system continues much as before since it continues to meet many needs. Wahabism continues its useful ideological role since the oil fields happen to be adjacent to the al-Hasa oasis.
    Date: 2025–05–07
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_220
  6. By: Mohamed Amine Aboukinane (ENCG El Jadida); Sanae Biaz (ENCG El Jadida)
    Abstract: Abstract: The aim of the present study is to examine the impact of the organizational identification construct as an indirect indicator of the tangible and intangible benefits that a company can achieve through the implementation of a CSR strategy based on the organization or sponsorship of sporting events, such as building trust and stimulating purchase intention among the wider public. A quantitative study was carried out using a questionnaire designed on the basis of existing measurement scales in the literature, and completed by 125 respondents targeted according to their interest in sport and sporting events. As expected, respondents showed a notable degree of organizational identification with companies that organize or sponsor sporting events as part of CSR, and the results projected and confirmed that the concept of organizational identification has a positive impact on the wider public's purchase intention and trust, but the mediating role that the latter can play between organizational identification and the wider public's purchase intention has not been proven. Overall, Moroccan companies should deploy CSR strategies through the organization or sponsorship of sporting events, enabling them to increase their financial assets (purchase intention) and build trust, taking into account the level of organizational identification of the target audience as a measurable index to predict the effectiveness and appropriateness of a CSR campaign. Keywords: CSR; sport events; organizational identification; wider public; trust; Purchase intention JEL Classification: M14; L21 Paper Type: Empirical Research Résumé : La présente étude vise à examiner l'impact du construit de l'identification organisationnelle comme étant un indicateur indirect d'évaluation des bénéfices tangibles et intangibles qu'une entreprise peut réaliser par le biais d'implémentation d'une stratégie RSE axée sur l'organisation ou le sponsoring d'événements sportifs, comme instaurer la confiance et stimuler l'intention d'achat auprès du grand public. Une étude quantitative a été menée sur la base d'un questionnaire conçu à partir d'échelles de mesure existantes dans la littérature et rempli par 125 répondants ciblés en fonction de leur intérêt pour le sport et les événements sportifs. Comme prévu, les personnes interrogées ont manifesté un degré notable d'identification organisationnelle avec les entreprises qui organisent ou sponsorisent des événements sportifs dans le cadre de la RSE , et les résultats ont projeté et confirmé que le concept d'identification organisationnelle a un impact positif sur l'intention d'achat et la confiance du grand public, mais le rôle médiateur que peut jouer ce dernier entre l'identification organisationnelle et l'intention d'achat du grand public n'a pas été prouvé. Dans l'ensemble, les entreprises marocaines devraient déployer des stratégies RSE par le biais d'organisation ou sponsoring d'événements sportifs, ce qui leur permet d'augmenter leurs actifs financiers (intention d'achat) et de renforcer la confiance, en tenant compte du niveau d'identification organisationnelle du public ciblé comme étant un indice mesurable pour prédire l'efficacité et l'adéquation d'une compagne RSE. Mots clés : RSE ; événements sportifs ; identification organisationnelle ; grand public ; confiance ; intention d'achat JEL Classification : M14 ; L21 Type du papier : Recherche empirique
    Keywords: CSR sport events organizational identification wider public trust Purchase intention JEL Classification: M14 L21 Paper Type: Empirical Research RSE événements sportifs identification organisationnelle grand public confiance intention d'achat JEL Classification : M14 L21 Type du papier : Recherche empirique
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05011679
  7. By: Hertog, Steffen
    Abstract: In oil-rich Gulf monarchies, fiscal constraints and demographic growth are leading to the exclusion of young citizens from the established social contract as government jobs – the dominant channel of patronage in the region – are becoming unavailable to them. We show that such outsider citizens constitute a new, politically consequential social class that is exposed to a much less attractive private labor market where they compete with low-cost migrant workers. The dualization of labor markets for citizens provides a new lens for understanding regional political unrest since the late 2000s and new group interests emerging around labor and migration policy, in which labor organizations representing outsiders have started to display solidarity with migrant workers. The new insider-outsider cleavages require a revision of rentier state theory’s claims about (the absence of) class formation and the role of inequality in rentier politics. They help us expand and refine Eurocentric theories of labor market dualism.
    Keywords: rentier state theory; dual labor markets; government employment; class formation; Gulf monarchies; insider-outside divisions
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2025–02–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126346
  8. By: Hanif, Muhammad
    Abstract: This study documents the comparative financial performance of the Islamic Banking Services Industry (IBSI) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. After drawing the performance evaluation framework (based on the CAMEL framework), the research conducted data analysis of the Islamic Banking Services Industry (IBSI) in the GCC region for 31 quarters (2013Q4–2021Q4). The analysis examines capital adequacy, asset quality, management performance, earnings, and liquidity management. Objectively classified data trends are reported through graphs. Additionally, the research documents internal determinants of financial performance. Findings suggest that the GCC-IBSI has shown overall progress in achieving primary objectives (commercial performance), including healthy capital adequacy, cost control, equity returns, and liquidity management. Capital adequacy, cost control, and liquidity management significantly contribute to financial performance. Managerial implications include cost control, reduction in non-performing loans, and prudent liquidity management. There exist opportunities in the GCC-IBSI for investors, given the mismatch in demand and supply of Islamic financial services. This study contributes to the literature by documenting findings on the achievements of the primary objective of IBSI in multiple GCC-IBSI markets comparatively.
    Date: 2024–11–18
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:379un_v1

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