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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Reza Zamani (Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the economic cost of sanctions on Iran (both aggregate and per capita) and their effect on economic development. Using a synthetic control method (SCM), we find that sanctions cost approximately $1.2 trillion for the period 2011-2022, which is even more than the cost of the Iran-Iraq war (1981-1988) for Iran. Sanctions cost around $150, $450, and $600 billion for the agriculture, industry, and services sectors, respectively. On average, Iran has lost around 23 percent of its economic capacity due to sanctions. Moreover, the cost of sanctions during the Obama, Trump, and Biden presidencies is about $500, $450, and $250 billion, respectively, while the annual GDP per capita loss during the Obama, Trump, and Biden presidencies is, on average, $1, 050, $1, 316, and $1, 428, respectively. Sanctions have changed the production structure in Iran, making Iranian economic development move backwards and resulting in lost years (2011-2022). Defining three alternative scenarios and comparing them with the SCM results, confirm our findings. Finally, by studying the average growth rate of both GDP and GDP per capita for Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), we find that sanctions are the dominant factor for Iran’s accelerating economic divergence from the other three countries |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1722 |
| By: | Yasmine Eissa (The American University in Cairo) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of global value chains (GVC) participation in fostering labor market outcomes in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia. While theory suggests an upward GVC effect on labor market conditions, we empirically investigate this assumption in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries endorsed with low GVC participation, weak labor markets, and high labor divides (skilled vs. unskilled and male vs. female). By merging World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) and Integrated Labor Market Panel Surveys (ILMPs) data, we contribute to the literature as follows. First, we differentiate between GVC participation margins (extensive vs. intensive) and capture the effect of each on different labor market outcomes. Second, we explore the moderating role of job skill requirement in the GVCs and wages nexus. Third, we capture the GVC effect on skilled blue-collar and female employment and study the sectoral effect on the latter. Our results show a positive effect of GVCs on real wages, industry wage premium, skilled production workers, and female employment. In addition, the skill requirement strengthens the positive GVC effect on real wages. Results remain robust when we use alternative methodologies to control for endogeneity.political, and demographic factors to understand how they contribute to conflict. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1730 |
| By: | Hosam Ibrahim (Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | Drawing on consumer demand theory, this study examines fertility as a microeconomic decision influenced by household socioeconomic characteristics, focusing on Egypt. This research hypothesizes that increased family size inversely affects child quality and long-term female labor outcomes. Utilizing data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Surveys (ELMPS) over 20 years, the analysis employs a two-stage least square instrumental variable approach, with the number of nonsingleton children as an instrument to address endogeneity in fertility decisions. Results suggest no significant effect of family size on child schooling or female employment outcomes, challenging the presence of a child quantity-quality tradeoff in Egypt despite significant socioeconomic transitions. This highlights potential limitations in policies that solely target family planning to improve educational and labor outcomes. The study's findings contribute to the ongoing debate on fertility economics in developing countries, providing insights into the complex interactions between family size, education, and labor market participation, particularly for women in the MENA region. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1711 |
| By: | Isabelle Chort (Université de Pau et des Pays de l’Adour); Rozenn Hotte (IRJI, Université de Tour); Karine Marazyan (Université de Rouen Normandie) |
| Abstract: | Early marriage persists in many countries despite legal prohibition. We investigate the role of income shocks and bride price norms in the context of Turkey. We use data from the Turkey Demographic and Health Surveys 1998 to 2018 and exploit rainfall shocks as an exogenous source of variation of household income. To study the role of marital payments, we interact our measures of shocks with a province-level indicator based on past prevalence of bride-price. Our results show that girls exposed to a severe drought during adolescence have a higher probability to be married before 15 if living in provinces with a high prevalence of bride price. We find more arranged and forced marriages after severe shocks in those provinces. Our results suggest that daughter marriage as a response to mitigate negative income shocks is not limited to the poorest countries and still participates to household strategies in Turkey |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1718 |
| By: | Laura Angelini (IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain, Belgium); Luisito Bertinelli (University of Luxembourg); Rana Cömertpay (Labour Market Department, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)); Jean-François Maystadt (RES/LIDAM, UCLouvain; FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique, Belgium; Lancaster University, Economics Department, UK) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how independent media networks influenced political mobilization during the Arab Spring in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We examine two prominent media networks in the Arab world, Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya, and use data from Arab Barometer surveys to track political mobilization indicators and media networks for Jordan, Lebanon, and Palestine. To account for potential endogeneity, we use the frequency of lightning strikes and submarine cable seaquake shocks as instrumental variables, highlighting the non-random use of independent media. The results indicate that independent media has a positive and significant impact on political mobilization. Specifically, a one-standard-deviation increase in access to independent media corresponds to an approximately 4 percentage point increase in the probability of participating in protests. At the mean of protests, this translates into a rise of about 28%. We discuss how Internet access and the informational aspect of the media seem to explain the results. Our supplementary analyses suggest that these estimates mainly capture the effects of Internet access rather than television. Furthermore, our findings suggest that the driving force behind mobilization is mainly rooted in the informational aspect of the media rather than the ideological content of the news |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1714 |
| By: | Shireen AlAzzawi (Santa Clara University); Hai-Anh Dang (World Bank); Vladimir Hlasny (UN ESCWA); Kseniya Abanokova (World Bank); Jere Behrman (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | Various challenges are thought to render female-headed households (FHHs) vulnerable to poverty in the Arab region. Yet, previous studies have mixed results and the absence of household panel survey data hinders analysis of poverty dynamics. We address these challenges by proposing a novel typology of FHHs and analyze synthetic panels that we constructed from 20 rounds of repeated cross-sectional surveys spanning the past two decades from Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Mauritania, Palestine, and Tunisia. We find that the definition of FHHs matters for measuring poverty levels and dynamics. Most types of FHHs are less poor than non-FHHs on average, but FHHs with a major share of female adults are generally poorer. FHHs are more likely to escape poverty than households on average, but FHHs without children are most likely to do so. While more children are generally associated with more poverty for FHHs, there is heterogeneity across countries in addition to heterogeneity across FHH measures. Our findings provide useful inputs for social protection and employment programs aiming at reducing gender inequalities and poverty in the Arab region. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1727 |
| By: | Ali Fakih (Lebanese American University); Zeina Lizzaik (Concordia University) |
| Abstract: | The phenomenon of overqualification is becoming increasingly common across many countries. This research study examines the factors that determine overqualification, the impact of overqualification on wages, and the earning differences between genders in the case of Egypt. We use a cross-sectional micro-level dataset taken from the Egyptian Labor Force Survey (LFS) conducted by the Economic Research Forum (ERF). After employing a Probit model to capture the factors determining overqualification, our empirical results reveal that different sociodemographic features as well as economic sector- and job-related factors determine overqualification. Moreover, we apply different matching techniques, radius matching, nearestneighbor matching, a weighting method, and inverse probability weighting (IPW) to estimate the causal impact of overqualification on wage earnings. The result shows that overqualification negatively affects hourly wage earnings. For further investigation, we estimate our regression by gender. The coefficients are negative for both genders, with a higher magnitude among females, revealing that overqualified females face higher wage penalties than overqualified males. The paper provides policy recommendations for both the Egyptian educational system and the job market to mitigate overqualification in the country. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1723 |
| By: | Ragui Assaad (Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota); Jackline Wahba; Caroline Krafft (St. Catherine University) |
| Abstract: | As of 2022, Sudan was home to 1.1 million refugees and 3.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), along with a substantial population that had previously experienced displacement. The Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS) 2022 over-sampled locations hosting the displaced in order to facilitate research on refugees and IDPs. This paper investigates the geographic distribution of the displaced, their demographics, their labor market and socioeconomic status and outcomes, and their education, health, food security outcomes. It also reviews their experiences of shocks, their coping strategies, and the types of social assistance they receive. Important distinctions are made between current and returned IDPs and refugees and their outcomes are compared to those of Sudanese who were never displaced. Analyses also explore differences by location of residence (in host communities and camps), by sex, and across different age groups. |
| Date: | 2024–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1705 |
| By: | Eleftherios Giovanis (Izmir Bakircay University); Öznur Özdamar (Izmir Bakircay University) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between climate change and violent conflict has been the focus of rigorous scholarly and policy discourse in recent decades. The adverse economic conditions can be a significant conduit that connects the two phenomena. We aim to explore the impact of economic growth and food production indices on conflict. Specifically, the objective is to link the causal path of climatic conditions to economic and food production outcomes and armed conflict. We apply Probit and Instrumental Variable (IV) Probit regressions using a panel of 16 countries in the MENA region, including Iraq and Turkey. We employ weather conditions as instruments for the economic and food production indices. Moreover, we use country dyadic data to examine the impact of shared river basins on conflict. For the incidence of armed conflict, we use the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset in 1960-2022, and for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), food production indices and climatic conditions, we use data from the World Development Indicators. The findings show that international aid, GDP, and food production indices negatively affect the incidence of conflict, while natural resource rents increase the likelihood of conflict. Regarding the river-shared basins, we find that when the rivers cross the borders, and if two or more countries share a river basin, then the incidence of conflict increases. Future research should further explore the interaction between climatic change and conflict and whether is conditioned by economic, social, political, and demographic factors to understand how they contribute to conflict. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1725 |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Jerg Gutmann |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the case of Iran to evaluate how changes in the intensity of international sanctions affect internal conflict in the target country. Estimating a vector autoregressive model for the period between 2001q2 and 2020q3 with quarterly data on internal conflict and its three subcomponents (civil disorder, terrorism, and civil war) as well as a sanction intensity index, we find that an unexpected increase in sanction intensity causes an increase in both civil disorder and terrorism risk. In contrast, the risk of civil war declines after an increase in sanction intensity. These findings for Iran indicate that higher intensity sanctions may allow sender country governments to put pressure on target country political regimes without risking an outbreak of major violent conflicts. Therefore, more intensive sanctions, may also not be helpful in inducing violent regime change. |
| Keywords: | sanctions, sanction intensity, internal conflict, civil disorder, terrorism, civil war, VAR model, Iran |
| JEL: | D74 F51 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11578 |
| By: | Sadettin Haluk Citci (Department of Economics, University of Zurich); Halit Yanikkaya (Gebze Technical University) |
| Abstract: | Using a large administrative dataset containing information for over 39 million private pension contracts and quasi-experimental research design provided by matching contribution policy reform in Turkey, we investigate the effectiveness of nationwide matching contributions in promoting saving outcomes and explore differences in responses to the program among participants. By leveraging two distinct policy changes, we estimate the marginal and net effects of matching contributions on participants’ saving decisions separately. Our differences-in-differences estimations reveal that the matching contribution policy increases contributions paid by 6 percent. Additionally, we analyze the impact of a sharp increase of 30 percent in the match threshold on participants’ contributions paid. Our results suggest that the nationwide matching contribution policy wields a notable yet relatively modest impact on augmenting saving contributions. Notably, we discern substantial variations in the responses to the program among different participant groups. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1712 |
| By: | Ebaidalla M. Ebaidalla (Ibn Khaldon Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, Qatar University); Tarig Alhaj Rakhy (Researcher, Economic and Social Research Bureau, Khartoum) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the state of education in Sudan, utilizing data from the Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS, 2022). It focuses on various education performance indicators, including enrollment rates, school progression and barriers to education. The paper highlights the disparities in educational enrollment, attainment and performance, across gender, geographic regions and family socioeconomic backgrounds. The analysis indicates remarkable progress in preschool education in Sudan in recent years, although notable disparities persist across different regions, locations and socioeconomic statuses. The results show that those residing in urban areas are more likely to enroll in education compared to their rural counterparts. Moreover, individuals belonging to affluent households with educated parents have a higher likelihood to enroll and complete higher education levels. The results also reveal noticeable disparities in enrollment and attainment across regions. Individuals residing in Darfur, Kordufan and Eastern regions exhibit lower levels of educational enrollment and attainment, compared to those living in Central region and Khartoum. The illiteracy rate in Sudan remains alarmingly high, especially among rural females living in poor households. Furthermore, the study indicates multiple barriers to accessing education, including the lack of schools, poverty, customs and traditions. Female students predominantly discontinued their education due to marriage, parental preferences, school fees and cultural norms. Male students dropped out of school primarily because they needed to support their families. Finally, the paper ends with some policy recommendations aimed at enhancing access to education and reducing educational disparities in Sudan. |
| Date: | 2024–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1707 |
| By: | Wided Mattoussi (University of Tunis); Ameny Ben Sayari (University of Tunis); Younes Ben Zaied (EDC Paris Business School, Paris) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on the global economy, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This empirical study examines the effects of the pandemic on credit rationing for SMEs in Tunisia using a panel firm-level dataset spanning from 2014 to 2020. To analyze these effects, we employ the conditional difference-indifferences (CDiD) approach, which extends the commonly used difference-in-differences evaluation method. Our findings indicate that despite government support measures for SMEs, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased rates of credit rationing. We further explore heterogeneity in these effects based on criteria like corporate indebtedness and investment levels, identifying the most affected categories. Our results highlight that SMEs heavily reliant on suppliers, those with significant reliance on the banking system, and low financial resilience encounter more severe credit rationing compared to other groups. Additionally, credit rationing is more pronounced in the secondary sector compared to the tertiary sector. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1716 |
| By: | Kowsar Yousefi (Sharif University of Technology); Samad Alaamati |
| Abstract: | While governments justify trade bans in terms of home protection and controlling currency crises, traders employ different circumvention tactics. We evaluate the impact of a substantial import prohibition policy in Iran since 2018 on the trade evasion. The prohibition was enforced after a currency crisis, led by sanctions, and banned the importation of more than 1300 HS8 products. Our methodologies are difference-in-difference (DiD) and event studies. Covariates like tariffs, value-added tax, and product trends are controlled. Findings indicate that the prohibition caused a substantial rise in evasion, with an estimate of about 20%. As a piece of advice to policymakers who aim to control the demand for foreign currency in a crisis, our results show that evasion neutralizes a considerable part of the prohibition. Though, other means of circumventions like misclassifications and barter informal trade have an additional role in neutralization, that could be measured in future studies. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1717 |
| By: | Maia Sieverding (American University of Beirut) |
| Abstract: | The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Sudan has fluctuated around five births per woman since the early 1990s. New data from the Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS) 2022 demonstrate that this trend has continued, with TFR in 2022 at 4.9 births per woman. Using the SLMPS data, this paper provides a descriptive update, after nearly two decades, to previous literature on the determinants of persistently high fertility in Sudan. The analysis addresses both selected proximate and background determinants of fertility. In addition to rural/urban differentials, there is a strong negative educational gradient in fertility. The TFR is 3.2 births lower among women with some secondary education than those with no schooling. The difference in Children Ever Born among women aged 40-49 is 1.6 births between the same two educational groups. Age at marriage and contraceptive use, two key proximate determinants of fertility, are likewise strongly associated with women’s education. Attending at least some secondary school is a particularly important factor in marriage delay. Internally Displaced Persons generally follow the fertility and marriage patterns of Darfur, the region from which most of this population originates and is hosted. Overall, contraceptive prevalence remains low and fertility desires high. There is thus little to suggest that fertility rates in Sudan are likely to decline in the near future. However, the impacts of the conflict that began in mid-2023 on fertility can be unpredictable. |
| Date: | 2024–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1706 |
| By: | Ragui Assaad (Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota); Vishal Jamkar (Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota); Caroline Krafft (St. Catherine University) |
| Abstract: | Sudan is a primarily agrarian economy. Formal employment or even wage employment comprises a relatively small proportion of the productive activities in which individuals engage. In this paper we examine the broad spectrum of involvement in economic work activities by gender, including wage employment, self-employment and unpaid family labor, both in activities for the purpose of pay or profit (employment) as well as in subsistence activities. Along with gender, we assess the variation in work patterns by urban/rural location, education, and marital status. Given the agrarian nature of Sudan’s economy, we delve in more detail into the gender division of labor in agriculture, including participation in crop production, animal rearing, and other agricultural activities, distinguishing between primary roles and support roles in these activities. We end the paper by looking at the interplay between work and other time uses such as paid and unpaid care work and the gender division of labor in time use |
| Date: | 2024–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1704 |
| By: | Ibrahim Elbadawi (ERF); Federico Fiuratti (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Unfortunately, the worst is still to come should it escalate into a large scale long-duration ethnic war. We show in this paper that this is a distinct possibility in view of the country’s highly fractionalized society. Using a Long-term Growth Model for Sudan, we find that the country could lose more than $2.2 trillion relative to a modest counterfactual peacetime scenario with a 4% annual growth rate. Realization of the conflict scenario could very well pose an existential threat for the country and its territorial integrity. Ending this war before it scales up and building sustainable peace is an absolute imperative for Sudan that requires a robust political settlement, leading to a transformative civil-democratic transition. Given the war-ravaged social capital and diminished domestic capabilities, sustainable peacebuilding requires a multi-dimensional UNRegional peacekeeping operation for Sudan, guided by a broad civilian democratic coalition. While UN missions could help improve the “quality” of peace building, longer-term sustainability requires sustained, transformative, broad-based economic growth. The emerging political order, therefore, should be accountable for achieving development and prosperity, not just majorities in the electoral competition. Under such developmental democratic civil peace, we predict “miracle” growth for Sudan. In an era of relocalization and concerns about food security, the vast Sudanese agricultural resource base provides a magnet for inward FDI flows that will help deliver the envisaged growth. |
| Date: | 2024–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1708 |
| By: | Angela C. Lyons (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign); Josephine Kass-Hanna (IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille); Deepika Pingali (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign); Aiman Soliman (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign); David Zhu (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign); Yifang Zhang (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign); Alejandro Montoya Castano (Colombian Directorate of Taxes and Customs (DIAN), Bogotá) |
| Abstract: | This study integrates geospatial analysis with machine learning to understand the interplay and spatial dependencies among various indicators of food insecurity. Combining household survey data and novel geospatial data on Syrian refugees in Lebanon, we explore why certain food security measures are effective in specific contexts while others are not. Our findings indicate that geolocational indicators significantly influence food insecurity, often overshadowing traditional factors like household socio-demographics and living conditions. This suggests a shift in focus from labor-intensive socioeconomic surveys to readily accessible geospatial data. The study also highlights the variability of food insecurity across different locations and subpopulations, challenging the effectiveness of individual measures like FCS, HDDS, and rCSI in capturing localized needs. By disaggregating the dimensions of food insecurity and understanding their distribution, humanitarian and development organizations can better tailor strategies, directing resources to areas where refugees face the most severe food challenges. From a policy perspective, our insights call for a refined approach that improves the predictive power of food insecurity models, aiding organizations in efficiently targeting interventions. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1729 |
| By: | Assouad, Lydia |
| Abstract: | I combine household surveys, national accounts and unique personal income tax records to produce the first estimates of the national income distribution in an Arab country, Lebanon. I find that income is extremely concentrated over the 2005–2014 period: The top 1 and 10 percent of the adult population received almost 25 and 55 percent of national income on average, placing Lebanon among the countries with the highest levels of income inequality in the world. These results challenge a long lasting narrative according to which inequality levels are not that high in the Middle East. They also confirm results from a large literature that emphasizes how the Lebanese sectarian-based mode of governance has allowed the ruling elite to extract large rents for decades and at the expense of the majority of citizens. |
| Keywords: | inequality; Lebanon; national income distribution; rent-seeking |
| JEL: | D31 D63 E01 I32 P46 O15 O53 |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117680 |
| By: | Hans R.A. Koster (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Saeed Tajrishy (Sharif University of Technology); Jos van Ommeren (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Mohammad Vesal (Sharif University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We examine the economic effects of agricultural dams for Iran. To estimate the benefits of having a larger dam, we introduce a novel triple difference identification strategy using information on rainfed and irrigated land. The benefits for landowners and agricultural workers are captured by a range of measures (e.g. land rent, profit, agricultural output, wages). We demonstrate that increasing water volume of dams that are upstream creates substantial benefits for landowners, but not for agricultural workers. About half of agricultural dams are profitable. There are substantial economies of scale in volume of dams, but as the benefits of volume are more strongly diminishing, so benefit to cost ratios is smaller for larger dams. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1719 |
| By: | Amira Elayouty (Cairo University); Hala Abou-Ali (Cairo University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between climate conditions and poverty in Egypt at a subnational level, considering various factors and estimation techniques. Using a functional data analysis (FDA), this paper explores the long-term effects of summer temperatures, winter temperatures, and precipitation on poverty across Egypt. The FDA results highlight the evolving relationship between temperature changes and poverty, emphasizing the heightened influence of summer temperatures on poverty rates over the past three decades. Additionally, the contrast in temperature dynamics before and after 1985 emerges as a significant predictor. A geographically weighted regression model reveals distinct patterns in different areas. The paper contributes to understanding the climate-poverty nexus and emphasizes the need for tailored strategies at the local level for climate resilience and poverty alleviation. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1710 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | While agricultural output suffers from yet another drought, non-agricultural output has remained robust, and domestic demand is strengthening. Nonetheless, unemployment has increased. Inflationary pressures have abated, allowing BAM to cut the policy rate in June 2024. The fiscal deficit is on track to meet the 2024 budget target, with stronger-than-expected revenues offset by increased current spending. Strong revenues from tourism, exports of goods, and remittances have kept the current account deficit to low levels. Morocco continues to make progress in bolstering its resilience against climate change and seizing the opportunities from decarbonization, under the RSF arrangement. Significant investments in water infrastructure aim at addressing water scarcity and will need to be complemented by demand management reforms. Continued progress toward liberalizing the electricity markets, a key dimension of the RSF, is needed to boost private sector participation in renewable energies (RE). This will not only help Morocco achieve its NDC targets but would also reduce its reliance on imported fuels, improve firms’ competitiveness, and help create jobs. |
| Keywords: | RSF arrangement; assessment letter; decarbonization strategy; RSF reform measure; E. WB engagement; Climate finance; Electricity; Renewable energy; Non-renewable resources; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Global |
| Date: | 2024–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/324 |
| By: | N. Nergiz Dincer (TED University); Pelin Pektekin (TED University); Ayça Tekin-Koru (TED University) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the panorama of zombie firms in the Turkish economy, which are highly inefficient, highly indebted firms that have low or sometimes negative productivity and provides an analysis of the impact of these firms on economic activity for the period 2012-2015. Our results suggest that the number of zombie firms in Türkiye has increased. The share of these firms in sales and employment has also increased, but at a lower rate. These firms are mainly found in lowtechnology manufacturing and transportation and distribution services. The paper also shows that healthy firms increase total factor productivity, employment growth, and the investment-to-capital ratio in the economy in a robust manner. The sales of zombie firms have no distorting effect on the economic activity of healthy firms. However, capital sunk into zombie firms has a differential impact on the performance of healthy firms. When the share of zombie capital in a sector increases, the TFP growth of manufacturing firms decreases, while the employment growth of medium-sized service firms increases. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1720 |
| By: | Sayan, Ramazan Caner; Bilgen, Arda; Kibaroğlu, Ayşegül |
| Abstract: | Moving beyond the purely material understanding of infrastructures, new perspectives in infrastructural regionalism assert that infrastructures and regions simultaneously shape each other. Drawing on this reciprocal relationship, we introduce the concept of ‘water regionalism’ to examine how regional factors, dynamics, and complexities shape water infrastructures, and how water infrastructures concurrently shape regions. Through qualitative research methodologies, we empirically demonstrate how this concept operates in practice by examining the history of regional planning and hydraulic infrastructure development in Turkey, particularly the process of how the South-eastern Anatolia Project (GAP) and the GAP region have shaped each other since the 1970s. |
| Keywords: | Euphrates and Tigris Basin; GAP; Turkey; water infrastructure; critical infrastructure studies; regionalism |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126296 |
| By: | Karine Moukaddem (Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Aix-Marseille University); Marion Dovis (Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Aix-Marseille University); Josephine Kass-Hanna (IESEG School of Management); Léa Bou Khater (AUB); Eva Raiber (Aix-Marseille School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Migration aspirations, the hope and ambition to leave the origin country, are recognized as the key initial step that may lead to actual migration. Drawing on data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Lebanon among 1, 500 women aged 18-35, this study investigates the role of social networks and life aspirations (education, career, marriage and fertility) in shaping migration aspirations, in a context of severe economic crisis and massive emigration wave. Based on a stylized model that integrates aspirations into a standard utility maximization problem, we postulate that individuals aspire to migrate if their life aspirations cannot be locally fulfilled. Furthermore, we focus on local networks to examine their influence on women’s migration aspirations. Our analysis reveals a peer effect, where a higher share of women’s network planning migration increases their migration aspirations. Additionally, unlikely career and education aspirations, but not family aspirations, are associated with a stronger desire to emigrate. These findings highlight the need for a nuanced approach to understanding the interplay between social networks, aspirations, and migration decisions. They offer valuable insights for researchers and policymakers aiming to address the drivers of women’s emigration in Lebanon and other crisis contexts. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1715 |
| By: | Ali Souag (University of Mascara); Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota and ERF) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact on labor force behavior of the employment agencies program adopted by the Algerian government in 2008. Using pooled cross-sectional labor force survey data on employment and unemployment from 2004 to 2014, we estimate a two-way fixed effects difference-in-difference model with geographic access to an employment agency as the treatment variable. Our findings indicate that access to an employment agency reduces the rate of transition from unemployment to employment and the rate of transition from out of the labor force to employment for both male and females. The impact is more pronounced for older workers and for more educated workers. The program has a positive and significant effect on women’s labor force participation, but much of that effect is through increased unemployment rather than employment. We attribute these results to job seekers using registration at an employment agency to queue for public sector jobs that make up the majority of jobs available through the employment agencies |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1726 |
| By: | Mohamed Ismail Sabry (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how the comparative power of various state and society actors and their collective utilities from the green transition—as reflected in their perceived losses or gains from the transition—affect the prospects of the energy transition in the Arab region. The paper begins with a theoretical discussion that maps out the important actors related to the green transition and their comparative power, identifying them as the state, labor, big business tycoons, and small and medium enterprise (SME) entrepreneurs. Then, the various actors’ utilities from the green transition are considered, where the sources of the different utilities are derived from the effect of industrial policies that impact the green transition. The main focus here is on the development of linkages, structural transformation, and energy subsidization policies. This discussion leads to the formulation of a theoretical mathematical model, from which several hypotheses are derived. After the theoretical model is translated into a regression model, the paper discusses the results and how they compare to the hypotheses, followed by a brief analysis of some case studies to better understand the results. The paper concludes that in countries with a more dominant state and weaker social actors, the green transition is more likely to primarily follow the interests of the state regardless of social actors’ interests. In more balanced state-society relations, however, the higher the interests of the various social actors, the more likely the green transition will proceed. In these settings, the green transition should be supported by tycoons and entrepreneurs through more innovation-fostering policies, labor through better structural transformation policies, and both tycoons and labor through lower energy subsidies. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1724 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Economic growth remains strong, driven by robust domestic activity. Inflation has moderated sharply with lower tradables prices. Relatively high oil prices support high fiscal and external balances and significant sovereign buffers. Banks have ample capital and liquidity buffers overall, and real estate activity remains buoyant. Substantial reform- and climate-related initiatives and investment spending continue. |
| Keywords: | government bond bond market; article IV consultation discussion; World bank relations; transparency policy; fund holdings of currency; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial statements; Global |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/325 |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (School of Business and Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg); Sven Fischer (School of Business and Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of the “Woman, Life, Freedom†protests in Iran during the last quarter of 2022 on individual life satisfaction. To assess this impact, we use two original representative surveys conducted before and after the protests in 2022. The repeated cross-sectional dataset was generated using the same sampling approach in both surveys to ensure representativeness. Our results, based on probit regressions and an instrumental variable approach for a sample of 2, 256 individuals, show that the violent protest environment had a significant negative effect on life satisfaction in Iran. To measure respondents' exposure to the protests, this study uses various indicators based on the distance of individual respondents from the protest locations. Overall, the protest environment decreased the probability of life satisfaction by 3.6 percentage points. These results remain robust when controlling for other determinants of individual life satisfaction. Moreover, we find significant heterogeneity among respondents based on gender, with the largest negative impact of the protests on life satisfaction observed among women. This negative effect is more pronounced than the impact of unemployment. Another key finding is the heterogeneous effect depending on media consumption, with international TV viewers reporting the largest decrease in life satisfaction. The mechanism underlying these effects was further explored through mediation analysis, which reveals that feelings of insecurity and increased surveillance are key mediators of the total effect. |
| Keywords: | Protest; Violence, Life Satisfaction, Well-Being, Woman Life Freedom, Survey, Iran. |
| JEL: | D74 F52 H56 I31 N15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202501 |
| By: | Memoğlu, Ömer (High Technology Research Center (YUTAM)) |
| Abstract: | Türkiye adopts a 'win-win' strategy in the context of maritime disputes. The Republic of Türkiye, which aims to show how much maritime jurisdiction coastal states will gain in their agreements with Türkiye, also implements a strategy to show how much they will lose if they do not reach an agreement with Türkiye. Türkiye, which embraces international principles such as fair distribution, fairness, geographical superiority, proportionality, and non-closure, being the country with the longest coastline in the Eastern Mediterranean, naturally has maritime boundaries with Israel as well. In this context, Israel is Türkiye's maritime neighbor. The Turkish Sword drawn in the west with Libya and in the east with Israel can be effectively applied. The thesis of Doç. Dr. Cihat Yaycı, 'Libya-Türkiye EEZ Agreement, Libya is Türkiye's Maritime Neighbor, ' was realized with the will of President Erdoğan and formed a strategy that disrupted a global game planned to seize the maritime jurisdiction areas of countries bordering the Eastern Mediterranean, including Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration. The Eastern Mediterranean, which excites global multi-actor actors and those who monopolize energy hegemony, will make Türkiye a global actor with its Blue Homeland strategy, given that it has the longest coastline. Those actors who do not want Türkiye to become a great power and use various methods to deter Türkiye from the Blue Homeland Doctrine try to implement their plans to chain Türkiye by presenting the Seville map, which was drawn to confine Türkiye to its land borders, as the maritime reflection of the Seville agreement of yesteryears. Because when Türkiye claims its maritime rights, it can solve its energy problem and fulfill one of the 'one necessary and two sufficient conditions' to become a great power. Elements that fund Türkiye’s lobbies to label the Blue Homeland as expansionist, maximalist, or Neo-Ottomanist aim to prevent Türkiye from becoming a great power. Based on Barbaros Hayrettin Pasha’s principle 'He who controls the water controls the land, ' the main strategy is to conduct a study showing how much maritime jurisdiction Israel can gain with agreements with Türkiye. Reminding us of the maritime spirit of our millennial civilization and the losses suffered when separated from its seas, and addressing the global competition in the Eastern Mediterranean and its reflections on the Republic of Türkiye in terms of maritime security are the main outlines of the study. |
| Date: | 2024–12–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:rgf75 |
| By: | Spencer Hartnett, Allison; Saleh, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | Studies of colonialism often associate indirect colonial rule with continuity of the precolonial institutions. Yet, we know less about how colonialism affected the distribution of power between precolonial domestic elites within nominally continuous institutions. We argue that colonial authorities will redistribute power toward elites that are the most congruent with the colonizer’s objectives. We test our theory on the British occupation of Egypt in 1882. Using an original dataset on members of the Egyptian parliament and a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, we show that the colonial authorities shifted parliamentary representation toward the (congruent) landed elite and away from the (oppositional) rural middle class. This shift was greater in cotton-producing provinces which were more exposed to colonial economic interest. Our results demonstrate that the colonial redistribution of power within precolonial institutions can re-engineer the socialstructural fabric of colonized societies. |
| JEL: | P48 N45 |
| Date: | 2024–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125972 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Jordan continues to show resilience and maintain macro-economic stability, thanks to the authorities’ sound macro-economic policies and reforms. However, as the conflict in the region continues and widens, it is having a larger impact on Jordan’s economy than anticipated at the outset of the program. |
| Date: | 2024–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/345 |
| By: | Samir Mirdasse (Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]) |
| Abstract: | A l'ère du digital, une multitude de technologies numériques émergent, entraînant des bouleversements dans les modèles d'affaires. La transformation digitale des entreprises s'impose comme la voie incontournable pour orchestrer un changement organisationnel efficace et parvenir à des niveaux de performance élevés. Dans ce sillage, la problématique de la présente communication repose principalement sur l'impact de la digitalisation sur la commercialisation des produits de la pêche maritime, plus précisément, elle examine la contribution de la digitalisation à l'amélioration des services rendus aux contribuables et à la bonne gouvernance des marchés de première vente des produits de la mer. La méthodologie de recherche adoptée est une méthodologie qualitative, débutant par la méthode exploratoire, suivie de la méthode de l'étude de cas. Cette démarche s'accomplit à travers la réalisation d'une enquête de terrain qui se traduit par des entretiens semi-directifs avec divers acteurs institutionnels et professionnels, du département de la pêche maritime à Agadir, en vue de recueillir des données. Les principaux résultats de nos investigations, révèlent que la digitalisation notamment le système de la criée digitalisée constitue une solution prometteuse pour moderniser et faciliter le commerce de la pêche. Elle offre des avantages indéniables tels que l'accessibilité, la transparence et la rapidité des transactions. |
| Keywords: | Transformation digitale, Gouvernance, Commercialisation, Produits de la pêche |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04853876 |
| By: | Hauer, Mathew; Brewster, Karin; Brooks, Matthew M (McGill University) |
| Abstract: | Historical estimates of the total fertility rate (TFR) are relatively uncommon, owing to the onerous data requirements for direct calculation and the lack of digitized records. Recent advancements in indirect fertility estimation 1 allow for estimation of TFR using data as minimal as a population pyramid – relatively common data in historical contexts through census records and population registers. Here we use published data on the age structure of Roman Egypt circa AD 12 to AD 259 2 to estimate TFR and 90%ile credible interval in an ancient time period and place using a Bayesian approach. Furthermore, the population data is separated by urban and rural areas, allowing for an unprecedented glimpse into ancient fertility levels. We find that ancient Roman Egyptian women in urban areas had considerably lower fertility than women in rural areas -- urban TFR: 3.37 [2.26 – 4.55], and rural TFR: 8.57 [6.01 – 11.25]. Our findings suggest that the modern day urban/rural fertility differential dates back nearly 2000 years. As demonstrated here, the advancements in indirect estimation could be deployed to better understand historical and ancient fertility regimes, shedding light on societies far before the existence of modern vital statistics systems. |
| Date: | 2024–12–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ru8xd |
| By: | Gökçe, Merve Betül |
| Abstract: | Between 2020 and 2023, Turkey experienced a significant rise in housing prices, with inflation-adjusted rents more than doubled in some regions, marking it a standout case of global house price inflation. This study exploits the regional and temporal variation in rental prices as a natural experiment. It employs a difference-in-differences framework to explore the impact on students’ educational mobility within a developing country, where annually, one million high school graduates face the critical decision to stay local or relocate to another province for university education. Using a comprehensive panel dataset covering all higher education programs in Turkey, combined with rental price indices for all 81 provinces, the analysis reveals that rising rental prices significantly reduce inter-provincial student mobility. A 100 TL increase in rental prices (adjusted to 2023 levels) reduces the openness rate (out-of-province enrollment) of public university programs by 3.5 percentage points (a 4.4% relative decline). The negative effect is concentrated in programs with lower entry scores, where the openness rate declines by 18%, while high-entry-score programs remain unaffected. This heterogeneity across program competitiveness suggests that rising accommodation expenses disproportionately restrict the geographical mobility of students with lower academic performance. The analysis of private university programs further supports this conclusion, showing that rental price increases significantly reduce mobility in tuition-based programs while leaving full-scholarship programs, typically attended by high-scoring students, unaffected. |
| Keywords: | Student mobility; educational migration; rental price; housing shock; accommodation cost. |
| JEL: | I23 J61 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122834 |
| By: | Afaf Zarkik |
| Abstract: | This paper was originally published on iai.it Europe’s natural gas system experienced unprecedented stress following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since the outbreak of the war, the European Union has strived to secure alternative supplies, fill its gas storage facilities and reduce consumption. Success on these fronts was enabled by fundamental market changes that the bloc unlocked during a long period of low gas prices over the past two decades, in addition to emergency and diplomatic initiatives launched by the European Commission to seek alternative energy supplies. North Africa stood out as a key partner to secure additional volumes, owing to its geographic proximity, existing pipeline interconnections and natural resources. In this regard, the energy crisis has served as a catalyst to re-launch EU–North Africa cooperation, with natural gas – recognised as a transition fuel – set to play an important role well into the future. More needs to be done in the region in terms of efficiency, declining domestic demand and improved green energy resources, however, if the full potential of this opportunity is to be achieved. A revived EU–North Africa relationship, based on genuine and equal footing, could help resolve future energy predicaments, while generating growth, high-value jobs and spurring innovation. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:rpnn_76 |
| By: | McCloskey, PJ; Malheiros Remor, Rodrigo |
| Abstract: | Forecasting GDP is crucial for economic planning and policymaking. This study compares the performance of three widely-used econometric models—ARIMA, VAR, and Linear Regression—using GDP data from the UAE. Employing a rolling forecast approach, we analyze the models’ accuracy over different time horizons. Results indicate ARIMA’s robust long-term forecasting capability, LR models perform better with short-term predictions, particularly when exogenous variable forecasts are accurate. These insights provide a valuable foundation for selecting forecasting models in the UAE’s evolving economy, suggesting ARIMA’s suitability for long-term outlooks and LR for short-term, scenario-based forecasts. |
| Keywords: | GDP forecasting, ARIMA, VAR, Linear Regression, UAE economy |
| JEL: | O1 O10 O4 O40 |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122860 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The economy remains in recession, but a recovery has begun in the non-oil sector, and inflation is moderating. Lower oil prices and production have weakened the external and fiscal balances, while financial stability has been maintained. The risks around the outlook are skewed to the downside, but substantial financial buffers are a source of resilience to external shocks. |
| Keywords: | headline CPI inflation; debt management office; procurement contract; e-government initiative; capital market development; consultation-press release; Structural reforms; Oil prices; Global |
| Date: | 2024–12–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/328 |
| By: | Benadi, Hanane |
| Abstract: | In the current context of environmental collapse and climate change, warnings about the threat of global severe water shortages have proliferated in media and policy discourses. At the same time, in many parts of the world, ordinary people, state institutions, and global financial actors are engaged in daily struggles over forms of water valuation. At stake in these struggles is the question: is water a commodity or a right? Based on ethnographic research conducted among Muslims and Christians in Jordan, this paper will explore how debates about forms of valuing water could be extended beyond the right/commodity and private property/commons distinctions to include religiously-informed forms of valuation. To do so, this paper shows how Muslims and Christians in Jordan provoke a mode of water valuation that is grounded in the idea of the ethical imperative to fulfil the amana (divine trust). Central to amana is the constant ethical labor of balancing the human right to govern/enjoy public resources such as water with divine responsibility. Amana affirms the value of water as a common good accessible to all and shared across generations while simultaneously making the realization of this value dependent on the divinely mediated relations of trust and obligation that hold together all of God’s creation. As such, the stakes in this mode of valuing water go beyond the struggle to counter the financialization of public water to insist on the necessity of making space for a non-possessive relationship to water that is embedded in shared createdness and oriented towards the hereafter and accountability to God. |
| Keywords: | temporality; climate change; value; water scarcity; Jordan; Islam; Christianity; ethics |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125964 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | development indicators in Kuwait; generation Reform gap; governance indicator; trade facilitation performance; reform prioritization; D. policy consideration; reform package; policy option; Structural reforms; Labor markets; Labor market reforms; Global |
| Date: | 2024–12–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/329 |