nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2024–12–09
seven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi, Université d’Ottawa


  1. A Numerical Assessment for Predicting Human Development Index (HDI) Trends in the GCC Countries By Mahdi Goldani
  2. The territorial attractiveness of foreign direct investment in Morocco: incentive policies and obstacles. By Chaimaa LAOUTE; Bouchra Alj
  3. Political Deadlock in Sudan and Tunisia By Hisham Aidi
  4. Analyzing the Influence of Star Classification and COVID-19 on Value Per Room in Turkish Hotels: A 2018-2023 Perspective By Celal Erdogdu; Kerem Yavuz Arslanli
  5. Under Pressure: Electoral Competition and Women's Representation By Campa, Pamela; Saygin, Perihan; Tumen, Semih
  6. Climate change, transformative adaptation options, multiscale polycentric governance, and rural welfare in Oum Er-Rbia River Basin, Morocco: an empirical evaluation with policy implications. Project report By Saleth, R. M.; Ait El Mekki, A.; Amarasinghe, Upali A.; Amarnath, Giriraj; Brouziyne, Youssef
  7. Geographic poverty targeting in social protection programs: Evidence from a nationwide policy experiment By Stephen O’Connell; Onur Altındağ; Rim Achour

  1. By: Mahdi Goldani
    Abstract: This study focuses on predicting the Human Development Index (HDI) trends for GCC countries Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Omanusing machine learning techniques, specifically the XGBoost algorithm. HDI is a composite measure of life expectancy, education, and income, reflecting overall human development. Data was gathered from official government sources and international databases, including the World Bank and UNDP, covering the period from 1996 to 2022. Using the Edit Distance on Real sequence (EDR) method for feature selection, the model analyzed key indicators to predict HDI values over the next five years (2023-2027). The model demonstrated strong predictive accuracy for in-sample data, but minor overfitting issues were observed with out-of-sample predictions, particularly in the case of the UAE. The forecast results suggest that Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE will see stable or slightly increasing HDI values, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman are likely to experience minimal fluctuations or slight decreases. This study highlights the importance of economic, health, and educational indicators in determining HDI trends and emphasizes the need for region-specific predictive models to improve accuracy. Policymakers should focus on targeted interventions in healthcare, education, and economic diversification to enhance human development outcomes.
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.01177
  2. By: Chaimaa LAOUTE (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales Mohammedia, Université Hassan II de Casablanca); Bouchra Alj (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales Mohammedia, Université Hassan II de Casablanca)
    Abstract: The highly competitive environment that characterises today's world has made the attractiveness of territories a major objective of countries' territorial policies. Following the example of several developing nations, the desire to build attractive regions for economic activities and mobile production factors (companies, entrepreneurs, capital, etc.) has led the Kingdom of Morocco to place this notion at the centre of its concerns. The Moroccan territory, being one of the strategic economic bridges between Africa and Europe, will be the subject of our present article. For the benefit of local and regional decision-makers, investors and researchers, we propose a complement to the current state of the art of the territorial attractiveness of foreign direct investment by offering both a state of the art on the concept of territorial attractiveness, and a documentary and exploratory study of incentive policies and obstacles to investment in Morocco. The methodological approach on which we based ourselves is the exploratory approach through individual interviews with territorial actors in charge of promoting the Moroccan territory. We have also supplemented our study with research documents available on the Internet from national and international institutions, more specifically the Directorate of Foreign Investment and the Regional Investment Centres in Morocco. The first part of this work is mainly based on a literature review analysing the concept of territorial attractiveness. Then, a real case study will be proposed, based on an exploratory study (qualitative interviews) on the Moroccan territory, while analysing its attractiveness and its investment climate. The aim is to highlight the key success factors to be promoted and the development avenues to be put in place. As the royal gateway to Africa, the country boasts one of the most attractive territorials offers and is positioned as a booming economic hub between Europe and Africa. This is thanks to effective attraction policies (sectoral strategies, free trade agreements, business parks, etc.) that have borne fruit on several levels, particularly economic and social. However, Morocco, like any other country, cannot escape the reinforcement of its weak points (mismatch between supply and demand, unemployment, poverty, lack of transparency, etc.) which can constitute obstacles to FDI. This is why our modest scientific contribution is intended as an analysis for future research work, a basis for FDI looking for a location, and a summary for local players in charge of the Kingdom's development, to highlight its strengths and make up for its shortcomings.
    Abstract: L'environnement concurrentiel prégnant qui caractérise le monde d'aujourd'hui a fait de l'attractivité des territoires un objectif majeur des politiques territoriales des pays. A l'instar de plusieurs nations en développement, la volonté de construire des régions attractives pour les activités économiques et les facteurs de production mobiles (entreprises, entrepreneurs, capitaux, etc.) a poussé le royaume du Maroc à placer cette notion au centre de ses préoccupations. Le territoire marocain, étant l'un des ponts économiques stratégiques entre l'Afrique et l'Europe fera l'objet de notre présent article. Nous proposons pour les décideurs territoriaux, les investisseurs et les chercheurs un complément de l'état des lieux de l'attractivité territoriale des investissements directs étrangers en proposant à la fois un état de l'art sur le concept de l'attractivité territoriale, une étude documentaire et exploratoire sur les politiques d'incitations et les entraves à l'investissements au Maroc. L'approche méthodologique sur laquelle nous nous sommes basées est l'approche exploratoire à travers la réalisation des entretiens individuels avec des acteurs territoriaux en charge de la promotion du territoire marocain. Nous avons également complété notre étude par les documents de recherches disponibles sur internet et provenant des institutions nationales et internationales, plus précisément la Direction des Investissements Extérieurs et les Centres Régionaux des Investissements au Maroc. La première partie de ce travail se fonde principalement sur une revue de la littérature analysant le concept de l'attractivité territoriale. Ensuite, une étude de cas réel sera proposée, en se basant sur une étude exploratoire (entretiens qualitatives) sur le territoire marocain, tout en analysant son attractivité et son climat d'investissement. L'objectif étant de mettre en avant ses facteurs clés de succès à promouvoir et les pistes de développement à mettre en place. Etant la porte d'entrée royale en Afrique, le pays dispose d'une offre territoriale parmi les plus attrayantes et se positionne comme un hub économique en plein essor entre l'Europe et l'Afrique. Cela est grâce aux politiques d'attraction efficaces (stratégies sectorielles, accords de libre-échange, zones d'activités économiques, etc.) qui ont porté leurs fruits sur plusieurs niveaux, notamment économique et social. Cependant, le Maroc comme tout autre pays, ne peut échapper au renforcement de ses points faibles (inadéquation entre l'offre et la demande, chômage, pauvreté, manque de transparence, etc.) qui peuvent constituer des obstacles à l'IDE. La raison pour laquelle, notre modeste contribution scientifique se propose comme une analyse pour les futurs travaux de recherche, une base pour les IDE à la recherche d'une zone d'implantation et une synthèse pour les acteurs territoriaux en charge du développement du royaume pour mettre en avant ses atouts et combler ses insuffisances.
    Keywords: Attractivité territorial Investissement Directs Etrangers Territoire Territorial attractiveness Foreign Direct Investment Territory Incentive policies Obstacles, Attractivité territorial, Investissement Directs Etrangers, Territoire Territorial attractiveness, Foreign Direct Investment, Territory, Incentive policies, Obstacles
    Date: 2024–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04763331
  3. By: Hisham Aidi
    Abstract: The global wave of democratic retrenchment has not spared North Africa as seen in the cases of Tunisia and Sudan, where democratic transitions have stalled or regressed into autocracy. How do to explain Tunisia and Sudan’s troubled transitions from authoritarian rule? Both states are attempting to transition from single-party authoritarianism. In both cases, economic crises exacerbated by COVID, the Russian-Ukraine war, and involvement by external actors stymied the fragile transition process. But there are also clear differences in the role of European powers, the strength of political parties and civil society actors, and discourses of national identity.
    Date: 2022–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_69-22
  4. By: Celal Erdogdu; Kerem Yavuz Arslanli
    Abstract: Valuing hotel properties requires a comprehensive understanding of dynamic pricing strategies, market dynamics, investment value drivers, and valuation methodologies. This process is critical for investors and hotel managers to make informed decisions on room pricing and overall hotel investment strategies. This study examines the changes in per-room rates of hotels in Turkey between 2018 and 2023, specifically assessing changes by star class and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on resort and city hotels. Our research analyzes in detail the impact of the pandemic on pricing strategies in the hotel industry and the price sensitivity of hotels by star class. Our findings provide valuable insights for hotel operators, investors, and tourism policymakers and provide recommendations for more effective pricing strategy planning in the industry.
    Keywords: Hotel; Room; Turkey; Valuation
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2024–01–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-229
  5. By: Campa, Pamela (Stockholm School of Economics); Saygin, Perihan (Autonomous University of Barcelona); Tumen, Semih (Amazon)
    Abstract: How can women's representation improve in countries that do not embrace legislated gender quotas? We study municipal elections in Turkey during 2009-2019. A conservative dominant party, Erdogan's AKP, is often challenged by a Kurdish party that promotes gender equality in electoral lists. Exploiting within-municipality variation, we find that the Kurdish party winning leads AKP to increase its share of female candidates by 25 to 30% in the next election. Other opposition parties winning has a substantially lower impact. Our results suggest that one party empowering women can help reducing gender gaps in lists across-the-board.
    Keywords: women political representation, electoral competition
    JEL: D72 J16
    Date: 2024–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17386
  6. By: Saleth, R. M.; Ait El Mekki, A.; Amarasinghe, Upali A. (International Water Management Institute); Amarnath, Giriraj (International Water Management Institute); Brouziyne, Youssef (International Water Management Institute)
    Keywords: Climate change; Climate resilience; Transformation; Governance; Rural welfare; Policies; Infrastructure; Food production; Food security; Food prices; Public-private partnerships
    Date: 2023
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:bosers:h052461
  7. By: Stephen O’Connell; Onur Altındağ; Rim Achour
    Abstract: We examine how allocating a fixed social assistance budget across localities using different prioritization rules affects both beneficiary selection and program effectiveness. By simulating each rule, we estimate program effects among marginal beneficiaries—those whose assistance varies across targeting strategies. The program reduces economic deprivation, with effect sizes ranging from 0.02 to 0.21 standard deviations. There are marked differences in the demographic backgrounds and economic constraints among marginal beneficiary populations, but program effects do not change substantially across targeting arms. We document sizable geographic variation in program effects, but limited ability to predict effectiveness using data typically available to implementers.
    Keywords: antipoverty programs, forced displacement, lebanon., poverty measurement, poverty targeting, refugees, social protection, unconditional cash transfers
    JEL: D74 I32 I38 O12
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:418

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