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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Ruchir Agarwal (Harvard Kennedy School); Adnan Mazarei (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Egypt narrowly averted a full-blown economic crisis in early 2024 when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others gave Egypt a financial lifeline to curb its losses of foreign exchange reserves. This Policy Brief traces the origins and developments of the current crisis, and the country's history of repeated balance of payments crises. The 2023-24 crisis is one of eight such events in Egypt since 1952, driven by governance and policy deficiencies. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have exacerbated Egypt's problems. Egypt's strategic importance in the Middle East, underscored by the Gaza conflict, has ensured continued international financial support, allowing Egypt to bet on its "too strategic to fail" position and avoid reforms. Entrenched military dominance and cronyism have obstructed necessary economic reforms. The authors conclude that Egypt needs to address these challenges and undertake major reforms to break free from its recurring cycle of crises and stop relying on international bailouts. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb24-6 |
| By: | Mohamed Es-Sanoun (FSJES-Fès - Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales de Fès, LIREFIMO - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de Recherche en Economie, Finance et Management des Organisations - FSJES-Fès - Faculté des sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales de Fès); Mounir Benboubker (FSJES-Fès - Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales de Fès, LIREFIMO - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de Recherche en Economie, Finance et Management des Organisations - FSJES-Fès - Faculté des sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales de Fès) |
| Abstract: | Ce travail consiste à estimer le taux de change réel d'équilibre (TCRE) au Maroc à travers l'approche économétrique comportementale du taux de change d'équilibre (BEER) à travers un modèle autorégressif à retard échelonné appelé ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lags). Pour le but final de calculer l'ampleur de désalignements du taux de change réel du dirham marocain par rapport à son niveau d'équilibre et de détecter par la suite les périodes de sous ou surévaluation, pour ce faire, nous allons nous baser sur une base de données trimestrielles couvrant la période 2000-2023. |
| Keywords: | Désalignement/ Mésalignement, taux de change réel, Taux de changed’équilibre, BEER, ARDL, Le Dirham marocain |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04686104 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Since February 2022, two major geopolitical crises have shaken the world. First, Russia attacked Ukrainian territory as part of a "special military operation" to demilitarize it and defend Russian-speaking regions. In turn, in October 2023, the Middle East has experienced a new dramatic episode in its history, with an Israeli-Palestinian war in the Gaza Strip. In both cases, the violent fighting is causing humanitarian crises. While this is an essential issue, it should not conceal the reality of major environmental crises. |
| Keywords: | Armed conflicts, Biodiversity, Ecocide, Environmental impact, Pollution |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04696550 |