nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2024‒07‒15
twelve papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi, Université d’Ottawa


  1. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on women’s economic vulnerabilities in the MENA: Synthesis report and focus on Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia By OECD
  2. Comparative study of accounting systems in the countries of the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) By Mehdi DIFADI; Allal Alain DIFADI
  3. Management control and performance management in Moroccan public hospitals By Hicham Sedra; Wissal Wissal
  4. Turkey – Maintaining the new course, for prosperity…and posterity By Sylvain Bellefontaine
  5. International Sanctions and Labor Emigration: A Case Study of Iran By Zareei, Afsaneh; Falahi, Mohammad Ali; Wadensjö, Eskil; Sadati, Saeed Malek
  6. The impacts of COVID-19 on female labor force participation in Iran By Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Salehi-Isfahani, Djavad; Do, Minh N. N.
  7. Social Networks and Collective Action in Large Populations: An application to the Egyptian Arab Spring By Deer, Lachlan; Hsieh, Chih-Sheng; König, Michael D.; Vega-Redondo, Fernando
  8. Foundations and practices of monitoring-evaluation in Moroccan public establishments By Abdelhalim Lakrarsi; Omar Hniche; Hamza Birbir,
  9. Migrants’ perspectives on environmental change and translocal practices in Morocco, Senegal, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. By Samuel Lietaer; Lore Van Praag; Hut Elodie; Michellier Caroline
  10. Well-Being in the Post-COVID-19 Era: The Impact of COVID-19 on Palestinian Refugees and Bedouins in the West Bank By Ahmad Amro; Sarah Carol; Birte Freer
  11. Evaluating Feature Selection Methods for Macro-Economic Forecasting, Applied for Inflation Indicator of Iran By Mahdi Goldani
  12. Sag mir, wo die Jihadisten sind: Der Aufstieg und rätselhafte Fall militant islamistischer Bewegungen in Libyen By Lacher, Wolfram

  1. By: OECD
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on women's economic empowerment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), in the context of elevated gender-based discrimination in social institutions – formal and informal laws, social norms, and practices. The analysis focuses on Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia. Using 2023 data from the fifth edition of the Social Institutions and Gender Index (SIGI), the paper analyses how discriminatory laws and social norms hamper women's economic empowerment. The paper also explores how the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated this discrimination. Finally, it provides policy recommendations to tackle discriminatory social institutions and address the specific needs of women and girls, both in the face of public health crises and beyond, aiming to foster more inclusive and resilient societies in the MENA region.
    Keywords: Covid-19, Gender, MENA, Women's empowerment
    JEL: J16
    Date: 2024–06–26
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dcdaab:54-en&r=
  2. By: Mehdi DIFADI (LSMRC - Lille School of Management Research Center - ULR 4112 - SKEMA Business School - Université de Lille); Allal Alain DIFADI
    Abstract: This article attempts to identify the main components of the accounting system of each country of the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) in order to establish a comparison between the accounting systems of these countries. This will enable researchers, professionals and students in the Maghreb to gain a better understanding of theaccountingregulations in forcein neighbouring countries. Indeed, faced with the various political rivalries and economic difficulties affecting certain regions of the Maghreb, it seems that Maghrebians have lost hope in the construction of the ‘Greater Maghreb' and are only concerned with their daily national lives. The intra-Maghreb comparison of accounting systems will enable us to determine whether there are any similarities or differences between thesesystems within the Maghreb, and to what extent they are inspired by the two major standard-setting models in the world, namely the continental European model and the Anglo-Saxon model. Having collected the texts and laws governing each accounting system in the AMU countries and analysed the content of the various components of these systems, our comparative study highlights two fundamental observations.On the one hand, in Tunisia and Algeria, accounting standard-setting is characterised by a hybrid accounting system comprising two components: an Anglo-Saxon component, reflected in the explicit adoption of a conceptual framework based on the IASB's accounting framework, and an explicitFrench-speaking component, reflected in the enactment of legislationestablishing a chart of accounts, accounting rules and models to be followed in thepreparation of financial statements. On the other hand, in Morocco and Mauritania, accounting standards are strongly inspired by the French continental model, but implicitly refer to the objectives and principles of international accounting standards.
    Abstract: Le présent article tente de cerner les principales composantes du système comptable de chaque pays de l'Union du Maghreb Arabe (UMA) afin d'établir une comparaison entre les systèmes comptables de ces pays. Cela permettra aux chercheurs, aux enseignants, aux professionnels et aux étudiants maghrébins de mieux connaître la réglementation comptable en vigueur dans les pays voisins. En effet, face aux diverses rivalités politiques et aux difficultés économiques qui traversent ici et là certaines régions du Maghreb, il semble que les Maghrébins ont perdu l'espoir de la construction du «Grand Maghreb» et ne se préoccupent plus que de leur quotidien national. La comparaison intra maghrébine des systèmes comptables nous permettra de savoir s'il existe des similitudes et des différences entre ces systèmes au sein du Maghreb, et dans quelle mesure ces derniers s'inspirent-ils des deux grands modèles de normalisation dans le monde, à savoir le modèle continental européen et le modèle anglo-saxon. Àl'issue de la collecte des textes et lois régissant chaque système comptable des pays de l'UMA et d'une analyse de contenu des différentes composantes de ces derniers, notre étude comparative met en avant deux observations fondamentales. D'une part, en Tunisie et en Algérie, la normalisation comptable se caractérise par un système comptable hybride comportant deux composantes: une composante anglo-saxonne qui se traduit par l'adoption explicite d'un cadre conceptuel relevant du référentiel comptable de l'IASBet une composante francophone explicite qui se traduit par la promulgationde textes de lois instituant un plan comptable, des règles de comptabilisation et des modèles à respecter pour l'établissement des états financiers. D'autre part, au Maroc et en Mauritanie, la normalisation comptable s'inspire fortement du modèle continental français, mais elle fait implicitement référence aux objectifs et au principe d'une normalisation comptable internationale.
    Keywords: IAS/IFRS standards, Arab Maghreb Union, Economic integration, Accounting standardization, Accounting harmonization, Conceptual gift, Système comptable, Normalisation comptable, Harmonisation comptable, Cadre conceptuel, IASB, Normes IAS/IFRS, Maghreb, Union du Maghreb Arabe
    Date: 2024–06–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04609473&r=
  3. By: Hicham Sedra (Kénitra - Ecole nationale de commerce et gestion Ibn Tofail); Wissal Wissal (UIT - Faculté d’Economie et de Gestion Université Ibn Tofail, Kénitra)
    Abstract: The objective of this document is to analyze the role and contribution of management control in the performance management of Moroccan public hospitals. The aim is to understand how management control has emerged and developed in hospitals, and what impact it has on performance management in these organizations, following the logic of the professional bureaucracy. The approach combines a theoretical analysis and an empirical study. The theoretical analysis consists of a review of the existing literature on the main theories of management control, particularly those developed by Henri Bouquin and Henry Mintzberg. Bouquin conceives management control as a mechanism for normalizing results based on the definition of objectives and the monitoring of their achievement. Mintzberg, on the other hand, applies his model of the professional bureaucracy to hospitals and believes that the normalization of results is unusual there due to the complexity of processes and the difficulty of measuring outputs. The empirical study is based on statistical data from activity reports of Moroccan hospitals, as well as a survey conducted among hospital management controllers. These elements are used to analyze the reality of management control in healthcare institutions in Morocco. The main findings highlight the role of integration and dialogue played by management control, promoting the emergence of a common organizational culture. Its contribution to process management remains limited. The research also does not allow for a complete generalization of its results. Although this study provides original insight into the reality of hospital management control in Morocco, some limitations remain. The qualitative analysis could be deepened. Additionally, a significant limitation lies in the lack of development of the theoretical debate around the divergence between the approaches of Bouquin and Mintzberg. A better understanding of this divergence would enrich the conceptual field.
    Keywords: Public hospital, Performance management, Contrôle de gestion, Hôpital public, Gestion de la performance
    Date: 2024–05–30
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04594149&r=
  4. By: Sylvain Bellefontaine
    Abstract: A diversified and industrialized economy, a NATO member since 1952, a founding member of the OECD in 1961 and a member of the G20, Turkey[1] enjoys an enviable geostrategic position. Its development and human capital indicators are also satisfactory, which can largely be put down to the first decade of the Erdoğan-AKP era (2002-2012). They have, however, deteriorated in recent years. The key issues for socioeconomic development for the coming years include 1/ political and geopolitical stability within a troubled region; 2/ the achievement of high-income status and a prosperity benefiting the entire population; 3/ a decisive step forward in policies for climate change adaptation and energy transition, effectiveness and independence.The first decade following the accession to power of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2002 was marked by the success of the restoration of macroeconomic stability in the aftermath of the 2001 financial crisis, and was coupled with rather remarkable socioeconomic development. During the second decade, the government’s action focused more on societal and moral issues, to the detriment of macroeconomic fundamentals and structural reforms. The third decade, which is beginning at the same time as the second centenary of the Republic of Turkey, founded in 1923, needs to place the economy, prosperity and national cohesion at the heart of the priorities. To ensure the posterity of his action, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could now devote what should be his final term as the country’s leader to this task (2023-2028).
    Keywords: Turquie
    JEL: E
    Date: 2024–06–20
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en16849&r=
  5. By: Zareei, Afsaneh (Stockholm University); Falahi, Mohammad Ali (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad); Wadensjö, Eskil (Stockholm University); Sadati, Saeed Malek (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad)
    Abstract: Sanctions have severe adverse effects on societies. Even though sanctions are used against governments, the population is punished for its government's behavior. Sanctions can create problems due to international migration. Iran is an unique case study because it faced the most and hardest sanctions in the world until February 2022. Many negative effects on the economy have been observed such as losing the Rial's value against the US Dollar by 80 percent, increasing poverty, and reducing exports and imports. At the same time, Iran had a very fast growth of emigration with an increase of 141 percent. Sanctions have been imposed on Iran's economy in different ways, but so far, it has not been determined how each type of sanctions will affect emigration. The aim of this study is to study the relationship between different kinds of economic sanctions and labor emigration using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. Different types of sanctions as oil and nonoil exports and three different import sanctions on consumer, capital, and intermediate goods are considered. The results show that sanctions on nonoil exports are most influencing emigration. Sanctions on the imports of intermediate and consumer goods, as well as sanctions on oil exports, are in the next steps, but not as much as the non-oil exports. It can be noticed that out of approximately 24 million people working in Iran, up to 4 percent of the working force have a desire to leave the country as migrant workers due to the sanctions.
    Keywords: international sanctions, labor emigration, DSGE Models, Iran
    JEL: B22 C02 C11 C68 F22 P00
    Date: 2024–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17062&r=
  6. By: Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Salehi-Isfahani, Djavad; Do, Minh N. N.
    Abstract: While female labor force participation (LFP) in Iran is among the lowest in the world, there is hardly any study on the COVID-19 pandemic effects on the country's female LFP. We find that female LFP decreased during the pandemic years by around 1 percentage point in 2021 and 2022. When controlling for excess mortality rates, the declines could increase to between 3.9 and 8.7 percentage points, with the larger impacts occurring in late 2021 and early 2022. Compared to modest, pre-pandemic female LFP rates, these figures translate into 5 percent and 18-40 percent decreases, respectively. Heterogeneity exists, with more educated individuals being more likely to work. Compared to married individuals, divorcees were more likely to work while those that were divorced or never married were less likely to work. Our results offer relevant inputs for labor policy, particularly those aimed at reducing gender inequalities.
    Keywords: COVID-19, employment, women's labor force participation, differences-in-differences, triple differences, labor force survey, Iran
    JEL: E24 I30 J21 O12
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1440&r=
  7. By: Deer, Lachlan; Hsieh, Chih-Sheng; König, Michael D.; Vega-Redondo, Fernando
    Abstract: We study a dynamic model of collective action in which agents are connected by a social network. Our approach highlights the importance of communication in this problem and conceives that network &- which is continuously evolving &- as providing the channel through which agents not only interact but also communicate. We consider two alternative scenarios that differ only on how agents form their expectations: while in the "benchmark" context agents are completely informed, in the alternative one their expectations are formed through a combination of local observation and sociallearning à la DeGroot. We completely characterize the long-run behavior of the system in both cases and show that only in the latter scenario (arguably the most realistic) there is a significant long-run probability that agents eventually achieve collective action within a meaningful time scale. We suggest that this sheds light on the puzzle of how large populations can coordinate on globallydesired outcomes. Finally, we illustrate the empirical potential of the model by showing that it can be efficiently estimated for the Egyptian Arab Spring using large-scale cross-sectional data from Twitter. This estimation exercise also suggests that, in this instance, network-based social learning played a leading role in the process underlying collective action.
    Keywords: Collective Action; Networks; Coordination; Social Protests; Degroot; Social Learning
    Date: 2024–06–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:43961&r=
  8. By: Abdelhalim Lakrarsi (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal], UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne); Omar Hniche (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Hamza Birbir, (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal])
    Abstract: Through an exploration of conceptual frameworks and practical implications, light is shed on how monitoring-evaluation (M-E), when properly implemented, serve as a powerful lever for transparency, accountability, and improvement of organizational performance. The analysis of current practices in public institutions reveals challenges related to the effective application of M-E, notably a marked preference for regulatory compliance at the expense of performance and impact evaluation. The need for a deeper and harmonized integration of M-E in the management of public institutions is emphasized, highlighting its importance for strengthening accountability, transparency, and institutional efficiency. This is crucial for effectively responding to citizens' expectations and the demands of sustainable development. The article advocates for a rebalancing of M&E practices to not only prioritize the regularity of actions but also and especially the appreciation of performance and impact, a majorchallenge for the continuous improvement of publicintervention.
    Abstract: À travers une exploration des cadres conceptuels et des implications pratiques, une lumière est jetée sur la manière dont le suivi et évaluation (S-E), lorsqu'ils sont correctement mis en œuvre, servent de levier puissant pour la transparence, la responsabilité, et l'amélioration de la performance organisationnelle. L'analyse des pratiques actuelles dans les établissements publics révèle les défis liés à l'application effective du S-E, notamment une préférence marquée pour la conformité réglementaire au détriment de l'évaluation de performance et d'impact. La nécessité d'une intégration plus profonde et harmonisée du S-E dans la gestion des établissements publics est soulignée, en mettant en avant son importance pour renforcer la responsabilité, la transparence, et l'efficacité institutionnelle. Cela est crucial pour répondre efficacement aux attentes des citoyens et aux exigences du développement durable. L'article plaide en faveur d'un rééquilibrage des pratiques du S-E pour qu'elles privilégient non seulement la régularité des actions mais aussi et surtout l'appréciation de la performance et d'impact, un défi majeur pour l'amélioration continue de l'intervention publique.
    Keywords: Result-based management, Theory of Change, Monitoring-evaluation, Governance, Public Institutions., Gestion axée sur les résultats, théorie du changement, suivi-évaluation, gouvernance, établissement(s)public(s)., Gestion axée sur les résultats théorie du changement suivi-évaluation gouvernance établissement Result-based management Theory of Change Monitoring-evaluation Governance Public Institutions, établissement Result-based management, Theory of Change, Public Institutions
    Date: 2024–05–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04574668&r=
  9. By: Samuel Lietaer; Lore Van Praag; Hut Elodie; Michellier Caroline
    Abstract: This qualitative study takes a translocal perspective by considering migrants’ views on environmental change, migration decisions and translocal practices in favour of environmental adaptation. This article addresses the following question: To what extent do migrants’ perceptions of environmental change in their region of origin influence their translocal practices in favour of adaptation to socio-environmental change? Our data show that while environmental change may not be the primary reason that people migrate, nor do they perceive it as such, their translocal practices may have very concrete impacts in environmentally fragile areas, especially with respect to non-migrants in the place of origin. Most practices (e.g. family economic remittances) are spontaneous and unintentionally adaptive to environmental change. In contrast, collective projects initiated through hometown associations, especially in Senegal and Morocco, often have a more intentional and proactive character, resulting in translocal adaptive socio-environmental dynamics.
    Keywords: International migration; Environmental change; Climate change; Translocal practices; Transnationalism; Morocco; Senegal; Democratic Republic of Congo; Belgium
    Date: 2024–04–15
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/373608&r=
  10. By: Ahmad Amro (Al-Quds University); Sarah Carol (University College Dublin); Birte Freer
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted greater pressure on vulnerable minorities who are on average in a more disadvantaged socio-economic situation. Therefore, this project had the main aim to capture the transition to a post-COVID era for three groups: Bedouins, internally displaced Palestinian refugees and majority-group members (non-Bedouin, non-refugee). How did COVID-19 affect individuals’ well-being? As the rates of COVID-19 were very high in Palestine, what kind of long-term effects of COVID do we see? To answer these questions, we collected novel data among Palestinian refugees, Bedouins and majority- group members. Overall, respondents trusted public institutions and science, and felt that they have done a good job during the pandemic. Yet, subgroups of the population have lost trust into public institutions. Major challenges arose with regard to the physical and mental health during the pandemic. Not all groups were equally affected by this. For mental well-being, we see that a substantial share of respondents reports feeling more sad. Bedouins reported a perceived worsening of their mental health, as well as greater concerns about their access to food, medication and health care. This situation has not entirely improved since the return to “normal”. Overall, we see that the pandemic has affected outcomes differently, and varied by group: they were not all in the same boat.
    Keywords: West Bank; well-being; health; refugees; Bedouins
    Date: 2024–05–29
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202402&r=
  11. By: Mahdi Goldani
    Abstract: This study explores various feature selection techniques applied to macro-economic forecasting, using Iran's World Bank Development Indicators. Employing a comprehensive evaluation framework that includes Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) within a 10-fold cross-validation setup, this research systematically analyzes and ranks different feature selection methodologies. The study distinctly highlights the efficiency of Stepwise Selection, Tree-based methods, Hausdorff distance, Euclidean distance, and Mutual Information (MI) Score, noting their superior performance in reducing predictive errors. In contrast, methods like Recursive Feature Elimination with Cross-Validation (RFECV) and Variance Thresholding showed relatively lower effectiveness. The results underline the robustness of similarity-based approaches, particularly Hausdorff and Euclidean distances, which consistently performed well across various datasets, achieving an average rank of 9.125 out of a range of tested methods. This paper provides crucial insights into the effectiveness of different feature selection methods, offering significant implications for enhancing the predictive accuracy of models used in economic analysis and planning. The findings advocate for the prioritization of stepwise and tree-based methods alongside similarity-based techniques for researchers and practitioners working with complex economic datasets.
    Date: 2024–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.03742&r=
  12. By: Lacher, Wolfram
    Abstract: Gängige Ansätze zur Analyse islamistischer Mobilisierung können schwer erklären, warum sich militant islamistische Bewegungen in Libyen nach 2011 zunächst rasch ausbreiteten und dann wie über Nacht fast völlig verschwanden. Ihr Niedergang stellt für herkömmliche Analysemuster ein Rätsel dar. Taktische Handlungslogiken wie die Suche nach Schutz oder Verbündeten beförderten sowohl Aufstieg als auch Niedergang militanter Islamisten. Welche taktischen Erwägungen für Konfliktakteure in Frage kamen, wurde auch durch soziale Faktoren bedingt, zum Beispiel die Vertrauensbeziehungen, die sie unterhielten, und die gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz, die sie genossen. Die kurzlebige Blüte militant islamistischer Bewegungen kann unter anderem als Modeerscheinung verstanden werden. Ihre Protagonisten strebten wahlweise nach sozialer Abgrenzung oder Konformität, indem sie sich oberflächlich islamistische Rhetorik und Ästhetik aneigneten und anschließend wieder ablegten. Erst ein Blick auf den dramatischen Niedergang militanter Islamisten zeigt die ganze Bandbreite der Beweggründe, die ihren Aufstieg beförderten. Insbesondere soziale Anerkennung wurde als Motivation für bewaffnete Mobilisierung bislang vernachlässigt. Der libysche Fall unterstreicht, dass im Kontext anhaltender Konflikte äußerste Vorsicht gegenüber Etiketten wie "Islamisten" und "Jihadisten" geboten ist. Externe Akteure sollten erstens beachten, dass Konfliktparteien solche Kategorien gezielt einsetzen, und zweitens ein genaues Verständnis des sozialen Umfelds entwickeln, in dem militant islamistische Bewegungen agieren.
    Keywords: militanter Islamismus, Jihadismus, Dschihadismus, Islamischer Staat, IS, Ansar al-Sharia, al-Qaeda, al-Qaida, Libyen, Bürgerkriege Libyen, Machtkämpfe Libyen, islamistische Mobilisierung, revolutionärer Islamismus, Ideologie, soziale Mechanismen, Gründe Aufstieg und Fall militanter Islamismus, Revolutionäre, LIFG, Darna, Bengasi, Sirt, Misrata, Sabratha, Tripolis, Haftar, Gaddafi
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:299227&r=

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