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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Diwan, Ishac; Elbadawi, Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | A regional commission of experts, working under the auspices of the Economic Research Forum (ERF), and the Finance for Development Lab (FDL), was asked to evaluate the macro-economic risks ahead, and to make recommendations on the best course correction to avoid them. There exist many useful reports by national, regional, and international organizations on similar issues. But they tend to be technical in style and diplomatic in tone. The responsibility of the Commission was to not shy away from the very political choices that confront MENA societies at this historic juncture. As a result, the report is meant to convey coherent and comprehensive messages about the risks and opportunities of the region’s development path. After a process of analysis, consultation, and deliberation, the Commission came up with four sets of recommendations, which are developed in this report. |
| Keywords: | Middle East and North Africa, Macroeconomic shocks, adjustment policies, pro-growth reforms, political reforms |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2203&r= |
| By: | Khadija ANGADE (Ibn Zohr University Agadir, (Morocco)) |
| Abstract: | The cooperative sector is currently an important lever for local, regional and national development. Due to their legal form and associated social and tax advantages, cooperatives actively contribute to reducing unemployment and improving living conditions in various regions, especially in rural areas. The positive impact also extends to individuals, with women primarily benefiting. This explains the rapid growth of this sector in Morocco. The Office for the Development of Cooperatives (ODCo) recently published statistics on Morocco’s cooperative sector for the end of 2021. In six years (from 2015 to 2021), the number of cooperatives has tripled, from 15, 735 to 47, 609, bringing the total number of members to 689, 617 (ODCo, 2023). This article highlights the characteristics of women cooperatives in Morocco through the case study of women’s cooperative of Souss Massa region. Unique aspects of women's participation will be explored by presenting the results of a comprehensive survey of cooperatives in the Souss Massa region (SM), covering all genders. The results of this survey represent the first phase of a research project entitled “Collective entrepreneurship as a driver of sustainable development: a case study of cooperatives in the Souss Massa region.†In the first part we will review the history of the cooperative movement in Morocco from independence to today. This will allow us to better understand the special entrepreneurial spirit that characterizes this industry. Subsequently, through the above survey results, an overview of women's cooperatives is revealed. |
| Keywords: | Cooperative, SSE, Gender, Entrepreneurship, Morocco, Souss Massa, Management, development policy |
| JEL: | A3 L3 M2 O1 R1 Z1 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crc:wpaper:2402&r= |
| By: | Giovanis, Eleftherios; Akdede, Sacit Hadi; Ozdamar, Oznur |
| Abstract: | Political tensions linked with immigration flows have sparked and stimulated the debate about migration and the integration of migrants to host societies. We aim to examine the participation of Syrian forced migrants in socio-cultural activities in Turkey and compare the frequency of participation with Turkish respondents. The second aim is to study the influence of participation in socio-cultural activities on subjective well-being (SWB). An interesting finding is that Syrians report higher SWB levels than Turkish respondents. Moreover, the study shows that integration and social inclusion should not be attributed solely to immigrants but should also rely on the efforts of the recipient societies since financial constraints and income disparities may potentially make it more difficult for migrants’ socio-cultural participation. It is critical to explore the role of socio-cultural participation in SWB because of the belief that this facility promotes social inclusion, building more cohesive communities, which in turn improves well-being. |
| Keywords: | Cinema and Theatrical Plays; First-Generation Immigrants; Social and Cultural Participation; Subjective Well-Being; Syrian Migrants |
| JEL: | Z10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120906&r= |
| By: | Kurtz, Gerrit |
| Abstract: | War has raged in Sudan since April 2023 following fundamental changes in the political balance of power in recent years. The previously dominant security sector is deeply divided and the once weakly organised civil society has mobilised. Competition within the security sector made it possible to form a civil-military transitional government. Yet the continued rise to power of the Rapid Support Forces increased the risk of armed conflict, especially after the coup in 2021. Since Bashir's fall in 2019, the security forces have twice tried in vain to establish sole military rule. The civil-military transitional government also failed because the military still had considerable power resources at its disposal. Sudan's political elite contributed to this outcome by paying too little attention to the establishment of transitional institutions and too much attention to its own visibility. International actors who wanted to strengthen Sudan's transition process could have repelled the security forces more decisively instead of reflexively accepting them. Many international as well as Sudanese efforts suffered from the fact that they viewed the inclusion or exclusion of the security forces as a binary issue. A new non-inclusive, elitist deal with Sudan's violent entrepreneurs will not bring peace if there are no civilian forces at the table. Instead, Sudan's best chance lies in the social capital of its citizens' voluntary commitment to humanitarian aid, democracy and local reconciliation. |
| Keywords: | Sudan, security sector, civil-military transitional government, transition process, Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Omar al-Bashir, Prime Minister Hamdok, Hemedti |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:295224&r= |
| By: | Zelingher, Rotem |
| Abstract: | The Gaza Strip (GS) is facing a severe food crisis, with a significant portion of the population facing famine conditions, which has aggravated during the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. However, the region's food security challenges are not new, but rather rooted in historical, political, and socioeconomic factors that have shaped the GS's vulnerability and resilience. In this article, we examine the complex causes and consequences of chronic food insecurity in the Palestinian territories, while comparing both regions: the West Bank (WB) and GS. The article draws upon recent reports by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), as well as other sources. We also discuss the urgency of action and the potential long-term solutions to address the food security crisis, focusing on the role of the Gazan government and the international community. We argue that global efforts should aim to encourage the Gazan government to invest in social equity, prioritising food security, health, and other vital aspects, while also supporting humanitarian relief and peace-building initiatives. |
| Date: | 2024–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7w6fz&r= |
| By: | Toker, Engin; Yucel, Mustafa Eray |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between economic downturns and the number of economics related caricatures in popular humour magazines. To this end, caricatures from editions of the weekly humour magazine Penguen from 2007 to 2011 were collected and categorised and the Misery Index of Turkey was compiled using data from TURKSTAT. It was found that there is a statistically significant relationship between the Misery Index and the number of economics related caricatures in humour magazines. |
| Keywords: | Humour; Misery Index; Caricature |
| JEL: | A10 A14 |
| Date: | 2024–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120902&r= |
| By: | Erfurth, Philipp |
| Abstract: | This study examines income inequality in rural Roman Egypt in 1st century AD on the basis of data from papyrological evidence for the village of Tebtunis. It identifies and collects data for three social classes - manual workers, priests, and village elites – to assemble a social table for the population of Tebtunis. To measure inequality using the Gini coefficient and the inequality extraction ratio (IER), the study proposes the use of a daily social table to better take account of daily wages for manual workers within the context of the ancient world. The collected evidence suggests that inequality and the degree of extraction of incomes by elites was likely relatively low, reflecting the rural setting and limited heterogeneity in incomes at the top, compared to urban settings and the Roman empire as a whole. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2024–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wrx9b&r= |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Salehi-Isfahani, Djavad (Harvard Kennedy School); Do, Minh N.N. (National Economics University Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | While female labor force participation (LFP) in Iran is among the lowest in the world, there is hardly any study on the COVID-19 pandemic effects on the country's female LFP. We find that female LFP decreased during the pandemic years by around 1 percentage point in 2021 and 2022. When controlling for excess mortality rates, the declines could increase to between 3.9 and 8.7 percentage points, with the larger impacts occurring in late 2021 and early 2022. Compared to modest, pre-pandemic female LFP rates, these figures translate into 5 percent and 18-40 percent decreases, respectively. Heterogeneity exists, with more educated individuals being more likely to work. Compared to married individuals, divorcees were more likely to work while those that were divorced or never married were less likely to work. Our results offer relevant inputs for labor policy, particularly those aimed at reducing gender inequalities. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, employment, women's labor force participation, differences-in-differences, triple differences, labor force survey, Iran |
| JEL: | E24 I30 J21 O12 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17001&r= |
| By: | Dina Ait Lahcen (Laboratoire de Recherche en Management des Organisations, Editorial Department, Droit des affaires et Développement Durable, FSJES – Souissi, Université Mohammed V de Rabat. Maroc); Nour Eddin Amghar (LERSG - Laboratoire d’Études et de Recherches en Sciences de Gestion, FSJES – Agdal, Université Mohammed V de Rabat. Maroc.); Mustapha Oukassi (LARMODAD - Laboratoire de Recherche en Management des Organisations, Editorial Department, Droit des affaires et Développement Durable, FSJES – Souissi, Université Mohammed V de Rabat. Maroc) |
| Abstract: | The disruptions of the Covid-19 crisis, the aftermath of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the general rise in prices, etc. have left a chaotic impression on companies around the world. In Morocco, local companies and SMEs, in particular, have not been spared. They have been severely impacted, with an unprecedented rate of reported failures. The interest of this contribution is, therefore, to study the academic corpus related to this topic by addressing a number of aspects that seem to us of considerable importance in the current context. To do so, we have proceeded to a bibliographical analysis of the concept of business failure in order to better define it, by presenting its different aspects and dimensions. Thus, the main research question that emerges is: what are the different approaches and predictive models to best assess the risk of business failure? The review of the literature has allowed us to raise the existence of three main approaches to failure, namely the static, dynamic and processual approach and the existence of several types of alternative statistical and probabilistic models to assess and prevent the risk of its appearance. |
| Abstract: | Les perturbations de la crise Covid-19, les suites de la guerre russo-ukrainienne, la hausse généralisée des prix, etc. ont laissé une impression chaotique sur les entreprises du monde entier. Au Maroc, les entreprises locales et les PME, en particulier, n'ont pas été épargnées. Elles ont été sévèrement touchées, avec un taux de défaillances déclarées sans précédent. L'intérêt de cette contribution est donc d'étudier le corpus académique relatif à ce sujet en abordant un certain nombre d'aspects qui nous semblent d'une importance considérable dans le contexte actuel. Pour ce faire, nous avons procédé à une analyse bibliographique du concept de défaillance d'entreprise afin de mieux le définir, en présentant ses différents aspects et dimensions. Ainsi, la principale question de recherche qui se dégage est la suivante : quelles sont les différentes approches et modèles prédictifs permettant d'évaluer au mieux le risque de défaillance d'entreprise ? La revue de la littérature nous a permis de soulever l'existence de trois principales approches de la défaillance, à savoir l'approche statique, dynamique et processuelle et l'existence de plusieurs types de modèles statistiques et probabilistes alternatifs pour évaluer et prévenir le risque de son apparition. |
| Keywords: | Approches, Défaillance, Évaluation, Modèles Risque, Risque |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04232653&r= |
| By: | Okan Akarsu; Altan Aldan; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | Financial constraints may hamper firm exports since firms may have to bear export-related costs before they obtain export revenues. Hence, export credits are widely used around the world to mitigate the negative effects of financial constraints. This paper focuses on a specific type of subsidized export credit, namely the export rediscount credit scheme implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), and investigates whether credit-using firms' exports increase more than they do for firms that do not use this credit in the short run without implying a causal relationship. To achieve this, we combine four datasets: the firm-level monthly data on rediscount credit, firm-level monthly data on exports, firms’ annual balance sheet and income statements, and firm-level annual data on employment. We find that receiving rediscount credit is positively correlated with export growth in the short run. This correlation is robust to using alternative measures of credit use, such as a discrete measure of receiving the rediscount credit and the amount of credit. Second, we discover that the correlation between the use of rediscount credits and export growth is stronger among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Third, we investigate whether the association between rediscount credits and firm exports is non-linear and find that exports increase less proportionately for a higher level of rediscount credits. Finally, we find that both FX- and TL-denominated credits are positively correlated with exports. |
| Keywords: | Rediscount credit, Exports, Türkiye |
| JEL: | D22 F14 O16 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2407&r= |
| By: | Tanju Capacioglu; Hakan Kara |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of a unique macroprudential regulation, which has been implemented in Türkiye since May 2018. The regulation requires that, for firms holding total FX loans below USD 15 million, FX loans should be capped by their past three years’ FX revenues. The regulation aims to contain corporate FX mismatches through a natural hedging requirement by linking their FX borrowing to FX revenues. Using a rich data set at the firm-bank level and their matched universe, we find that, following the regulation, FX loans of the firms targeted by the regulation (exposed firms) declined more, and non-renewed FX loans were only partly replaced with local currency loans, suggesting imperfect substitution between local currency and FX borrowing. Exposed firms exhibit weaker investment but stronger export growth. The regulation has indirect effects on the composition of bank balance sheets in the form of increased currency swaps and/or reduced external FX borrowing. Overall, our findings suggest that macroprudential tools that directly target corporate balance sheet mismatches can be viable alternatives to lender-based restrictions in mitigating currency risk. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential regulation, FX mismatch, Natural hedging, Currency risk, Corporate sector, Banking sector |
| JEL: | F31 F34 G30 G38 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2406&r= |
| By: | Amine Hmid (FSJES AIN SEBAA, Hassan II University –Casablanca, INRA Maroc - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Maroc]); Driss Abbadi (FSJES AIN SEBAA, Hassan II University –Casablanca); Abdelali Laamari (INRA Maroc - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Maroc]) |
| Abstract: | Face à la crise multidimensionnelle (sécuritaire, géographique, économique, environnementale et sanitaire) et avec l’émergence d’une nouvelle notion qui est le management territorial stratégique, le renouvellement des politiques d’attractivité des investissements directs étrangers est devenu une nécessité que ce soit pour les pays développés comme pour les pays en développement. Dans ce contexte, pour attirer les investisseurs étrangers, il est important que les territoires doivent disposer d’un environnement favorable à l’investissement, donc c’est là que la nouvelle configuration de l’action territoriale (management territorial stratégique) entre en jeu. Donc l’objectif de cet article est de reprendre la problématique de l’attractivité des IDE dans une perspective de management territorial stratégique. Pour ce faire, nous envisageons de mettre l’éclairage sur une étude qu’on a déjà réalisée sur laquelle on a opté pour une méthode qui repose sur l'approche qualitative, l'analyse documentaire et l’observation directe. Les résultats montrent que la politique d'attractivité des IDE au Maroc souffre de plusieurs problèmes qui peuvent constituer des doutes pour les investisseurs. Cependant, le recours au management territorial stratégique peut jouer un rôle crucial dans l'attractivité des IDE afin de créer un cadre rassurant et motivant pour les investisseurs. |
| Keywords: | territoire, politiques publiques Attractiveness, FDI, strategic territorial management, public policies, Attractivité IDE management territorial stratégique territoire politiques publiques Attractiveness FDI strategic territorial management territory public policies, Attractivité, IDE, management territorial stratégique, territory |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04549805&r= |
| By: | Burak Deniz; Fehmi Furkan Turan; Ibrahim Yarba |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada, firma duzeyinde mikro veri seti kullanilarak Turkiye’de bankacilik sektoru tarafindan saglanan ticari kredilerin yogunlasmasi analiz edilmektedir. Calismanin sonuclari, 2011-2022 doneminde toplam kredi yogunlasmasinin arttigini ve imalat sanayi sektorlerindeki TL kredi yogunlasmasinin imalat disi sektorlere kiyasla daha yuksek seviyelerde oldugunu gostermektedir. TL kredilerde yogunlasmanin finansal kosullarin sikilastigi 2018-2019 doneminde ivmelendigi, 2020 yilinda yasanilan pandemi doneminde azaldigi, sonraki yillarda ise gorece yatay bir seyir izledigi gorulmektedir. Firma buyuklugu bazinda kredi dagilimlarina iliskin alternatif gostergeler de bu bulgulari desteklemektedir. Ampirik model sonuclari kredi yogunlasmasi artisi ile rekabet gostergelerinden piyasa yogunlasmasinin arttigini gostermektedir. Ayrica, sonuclar kredi piyasasinin siki oldugu donemlerde toplam kredi ve TL cinsi kredi yogunlasmasinin gorece daha fazla arttigini gostermektedir. Kredi yogunlasmasinin dongusel yapisina iliskin bu bulgular, oz sermaye finansmanini destekleyen, sermaye piyasalarinin gelistirilmesi ve finansal derinligin artirilmasina yonelik politikalar ile kredilerin verimli ve etkin kullanimina yonelik secici kredi politikalarinin onemine isaret etmektedir. [EN] In this study, the concentration of commercial loans provided by the banking sector in Türkiye is analyzed by using a firm-level micro dataset. The results of the study show that total loan concentration increased over the 2011-2022 period, and TL loan concentration in the manufacturing industry was at higher levels compared to non-manufacturing sectors. It can be seen that concentration in TL loans accelerated especially during the 2018-2019 period when financial conditions tightened, and that the concentration decreased in 2020 under pandemic conditions, whereas it followed a relatively horizontal course in the following years. Alternative indicators regarding loan distributions based on firm size also support these findings. The results of the empirical model reveal that market concentration which is one of the indicators of market competition increases with loan concentration. Furthermore, the results show that total loan and TL loan concentration increase relatively more during periods when the credit market is tight. These findings regarding the cyclical structure of loan concentration point to the importance of policies that support equity financing, development of capital markets and increasing financial depth, and selective loan policies for the efficient and effective use of loans. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2408&r= |
| By: | Aysu Celgin; Mert Gokcu |
| Abstract: | [TR] Ýstanbul Sanayi Odasi tarafindan yayimlanan Turkiye Ýmalat Satin Alma Yoneticileri Endeksi (PMI) ve Mustakil Sanayici ve Ýsadamlari Dernegi tarafindan aciklanan Satin Alma Mudurleri Endeksi (SAMEKS), iktisadi faaliyetin seyri hakkinda bilgi edinmek amaciyla takip edilen onemli anket gostergelerindendir. Bu iki onemli endeksin tarihsel olarak uyumlu hareket etmekle beraber, son yillarda daha belirgin olmak uzere, bazi donemlerde birbirlerinden ayristiklari gorulmektedir. Bu calismada, soz konusu ayrismanin kaynaklari farkli basliklar altinda incelendikten sonra her iki endeksin imalat sanayi uretimiyle olan iliskisi esik deger analizi ile incelenmektedir. Bu cercevede, PMI icin sabit esik degerin 50’nin altinda (47, 9) oldugu ve SAMEKS sanayi endeksi ile yapilan analizde ise istatistiki olarak anlamli katsayilar elde edilemedigi gozlenmistir. Buna ek olarak, PMI gostergesinin imalat sanayi ile iliskisi yorumlanirken, endeksin seviyesinin yaninda degisiminin de kritik oldugu tespit edilmistir. Ozetle, analiz sonuclari, manset degerin yaninda anket göstergelerine butuncul bakis acisinin da onemli oldugunu ima etmektedir. [EN] Türkiye Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) published by Istanbul Chamber of Industry and Purchasing Managers’ Index (SAMEKS) released by Independent Industrialists’ and Businessmen's Association are among the important survey indicators which are monitored in order to obtain information about the course of economic activity. Although these two important indices have moved in tandem historically, it is observed that they have diverged from each other in some periods, more visibly in recent years. In this study, after examining the sources of this divergence under different headings, the relationship of both of these indices with the manufacturing industry production is examined with threshold value analysis. Accordingly, it is observed that the fixed threshold value for PMI is below 50 (47.9), and no statistically significant coefficients could be obtained in the analysis conducted by SAMEKS industry index. In addition, it has been detected that the change of the index as well as its level is critical when interpreting the relation between PMI indicator and the manufacturing industry. In sum, the analysis results imply that a holistic view of survey indicators is important as well as headline value. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2407&r= |