nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2024‒04‒01
eleven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi, Université d’Ottawa


  1. Net zero Saudi Arabia: how green can the oil kingdom get? By Jim Krane
  2. Contribution of the National Initiative for Human Development to promoting youth entrepreneurship in Morocco: Focus on Program III of the third phase By Brahim FATHALLAH; Latifa HORR
  3. Impact of social public expenditure onthe formation of human capital: the case of Morocco By Hamdi El Asli; Mohamed Azeroual
  4. INNOVATION IN THE FINANCIAL FUNCTION: A PATH TOWARDS PERFORMANCE By Ghizlane Barzi; Zineb Bamousse
  5. National elections, sub-national growth: the politics of Turkey's provincial economic dynamics under AKP rule By Luca, Davide
  6. An Application to Model Uncertainty in Modelling Non-Performing Loans By Mehmet Selman Colak; Yavuz Kilic; Huseyin Ozturk; Mehmet Emre Samci
  7. Digitization of Non-Recovery Risk Management in Non-Financial Companies: A Qualitative Study of Risk Managers' Perceptions in Morocco By Chaimaa Achir; Aziz Douari
  8. Multi-agent simulation to understand the impact of proximity on the public procurement process in Morocco By Hassan Edman
  9. Shaping the future of Gaza: How Europe could contribute to sustainable stabilisation By Asseburg, Muriel
  10. Does Agricultural Intensification Enhance Rural Wellbeing? A Structural Model Assessment at the Sub-Communal Level: A Case Study in Tunisia By Fatma Mhadhbi Mhadhbi; Claude Napoléone
  11. Evolution of Markups in the Manufacturing Industry of Turkiye By Eren Gürer; Pınar Derin Güre

  1. By: Jim Krane
    Keywords: Saudi Arabia, Net Zero 2060, decarbonisation, oil and natural gas, Saudi Aramco, greenhouse gas (GHG), carbon dioxide (CO2), emissions offsets, renewables, hydrogen, energy subsidy reform, carbon intensity, carbon capture and storage (CCS), emissions clusters, credible commitment, Paris Agreement NDC, climate pledge, peak oil demand, Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions
    JEL: Q01 Q4 P16 P18 Q32 Q35 Q38 Q54 Q58 H23
    Date: 2022–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2217&r=ara
  2. By: Brahim FATHALLAH (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca (UH2C)); Latifa HORR (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca (UH2C))
    Abstract: People are today at the center of public policies in most countries. To this end, many programs have been developed to substantiate the role of this resource in the socio-economic areas of these countries. Indeed, the human element plays a fundamental role in the development of a country. Youth entrepreneurship, in particular, constitutes an important factor in integrating young people into the economic and social fabric. In Morocco, the National Initiative for Human Development (INDH) plays a leading role in encouraging youth entrepreneurship. This initiative, launched in 2005, aims to reduce social and economic disparities by encouraging young people to create their own businesses. This article aims to analyze the contribution of the NIHD, particularly in its third phase through Program III, to the promotion of youth entrepreneurship in Morocco by highlighting different actions implemented and their impacts. A qualitative method was adopted. This includes studying a sample of 256 projects presented by young entrepreneurs at the level of youth platforms in the prefecture of the Mohammadi district of Ain Sebaa in Casablanca, during the period (2019 - 2022). The results of the content analysis show that the NIHD has significantly contributed to promoting youth entrepreneurship, especially by creating financing mechanisms adapted to this sector and improving the living conditions of the poor population.
    Abstract: L'Homme est, de nos jours, au centre des politiques publiques dans plusieurs pays. A cet effet, de nombreux programmes ont été développé pour concrétiser le rôle de cette ressource dans les domaines socio-économiques de ces pays. En effet, l'élément humain joue un rôle fondamental dans le développement économique et constitue une référence pour l'économie sociale. L'entrepreneuriat des jeunes, en particulier, constitue un facteur important pour intégrer les jeunes dans le tissu économique et social. Au Maroc, l'Initiative Nationale pour le Développement Humain (INDH) joue un rôle de premier plan dans l'encouragement de l'entrepreneuriat des jeunes. Cette initiative, lancée en 2005, vise à réduire les disparités sociales et économiques tout en favorisant l'intégration des jeunes dans la vie économique. Cet article a pour but d'analyser la contribution de l'INDH, notamment dans sa troisième phase à travers le programme III, dans la promotion de l'entrepreneuriat des jeunes au Maroc en mettant en avant les différentes actions entreprises et leurs impacts. Une méthode qualitative a été adoptée. Il s'agit d'étudier un échantillon de 256 projets présentés par des jeunes entrepreneurs au niveau des plateformes des jeunes, à la préfecture Hay Mohammadi Ain Sbaa à Casablanca, au cours de la période (2019 – 2022). Une analyse du contenu a été utilisée pour analyser les données collectées, elle montre une contribution significative de l'INDH dans la promotion de l'entrepreneuriat chez les jeunes, notamment par la mise en place de mécanismes de financement appropriés pour ce secteur et l'amélioration des conditions de vie des populations pauvres.
    Date: 2024–02–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04456993&r=ara
  3. By: Hamdi El Asli (USMS - Université Sultan Moulay Slimane); Mohamed Azeroual (USMS - Université Sultan Moulay Slimane)
    Abstract: The ultimate objective of this research is to identify the type of impact that has public expenditure qualified as social, in our case, education and health, on the genesis of human capital in Morocco over the period from 1990 to 2022 through an empirical study based on four interdependent simple linear regression models.The added value of our research isto confirm the positive contribution of said expenses on the formation of said capital for the Moroccan case, through an impact study on four parameters accounted in the HCI's formula, the new human capital index, adopted by the world bank in 2018, notably, the level of education of individuals adjusted for quality, infant and adult mortality rates and prevalence of stunting.The results show a positive and proportional impact of social spending on the formation of human capital, giving Morocco an index in this area above the global average.
    Date: 2023–07–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04468982&r=ara
  4. By: Ghizlane Barzi (ENCGS - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion de SETTAT); Zineb Bamousse (ENCGS - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion de SETTAT)
    Abstract: The financial sector represents a major challenge for researchers, as it is undergoing exponential change. The financial function is at the heart of debates in management science studies, as it lies at the heart of the ongoing transformation of organizations. It is an essential pole of analysis, forecasting and dissemination of financial culture in Moroccan companies. Indeed, the aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between the development of innovative management in the finance function and corporate performance, particularly in the Moroccan context. Furthermore, to present the important role of the CFO as a leader of innovation and guarantor of development. To this end, an exploratory study was carried out among 15 major Moroccan companies in various sectors. The results of this study demonstrated the interest of CFOs in adopting innovation tools in their activities, and presented innovation as a genuine performance lever.
    Abstract: Le secteur financier constitue un enjeu majeur pour les chercheurs puisqu'il est dans une évolution exponentielle. La fonction financière est le centre névralgique des débats dans les études en sciences de gestion vue qu'elle se situe au cœur des transformations continues des organisations. Elle est un pôle incontournable d'analyse, de prévision et de diffusion de la culture financière dans les entreprises marocaines. En effet, l'objectif de cette étude est d'analyser la relation entre le développement d'une gestion innovante dans la fonction financière et la performance des entreprises, particulièrement dans le contexte marocain. De plus, présenter le rôle important du directeur financier en tant que leader de l'innovation et garant du développement. A ce propos, une étude exploratoire a été réalisée auprès de 15 grandes entreprises marocaines des différents secteurs. Les résultats de cette étude ont montré l'intérêt des directeurs financiers à adopter les outils de l'innovation dans leurs activités et ont présenté l'innovation comme étant un véritable levier de la performance.
    Keywords: Secteur financier Gestion innovante Performance des entreprises Innovation Développement organisationnel Culture financière Numéro 2 2024, Secteur financier, Gestion innovante, Performance des entreprises, Innovation, Développement organisationnel, Culture financière
    Date: 2024–01–30
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04463646&r=ara
  5. By: Luca, Davide
    Abstract: Despite a large body of work on the impacts of institutions on subnational growth and development, economic geographers have, in the last decades, frequently overlooked the role of politics and, in particular, that of national political economies. Drawing on the political science literature, the paper argues that studying national political dynamics is still key to understand the cumulative process of uneven regional development. Using data from Turkey over the period 2004-2016, the paper shows how national electoral politics and government actions have significantly affected provincial growth patterns. The impact is substantive and increases in election years. Results also suggest that the central government may have influenced sub-national growth trajectories in different ways, including boosting the construction sector and expanding public employment.
    Keywords: politics of development; electoral politics; distributive politics; regional economic growth; Turkey
    JEL: C20 D72 H73 O18 O40 R11
    Date: 2022–07–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112682&r=ara
  6. By: Mehmet Selman Colak; Yavuz Kilic; Huseyin Ozturk; Mehmet Emre Samci
    Abstract: [EN] The asset quality of a banking system has the utmost importance not only for the soundness of the banking sector, but also for other major components of an economy. The lack of consensus on a certain set of variables for modeling asset quality leads to a problem, which is also known as “model uncertainty”. In this study, we investigate how non-performing loans in the Turkish banking system respond to changes in macroeconomic and bank-specific variables. To address model uncertainty, we employ a model averaging approach. Our results confirm the main findings in the literature with regards to the nexus between asset quality and macroeconomic and bank-specific variables. In addition, parameter estimates obtained from 1, 023 models using combinations of 10 variables suggest that even under extreme shocks, the NPL ratio of the Turkish banking sector remains within reasonable limits. [TR] Bankacilik sisteminin aktif kalitesi, sadece bankacilik sektorunun saglamligi acisindan degil, ekonominin diger temel bilesenleri acisindan da buyuk onem arz etmektedir. Aktif kalitesinin modellenmesinde belirli bir dizi degisken uzerinde fikir birliginin bulunmamasi, “model belirsizligi” olarak da bilinen bir soruna yol acmaktadir. Bu calismada, Turk bankacilik sistemindeki takipteki kredilerin makroekonomik ve bankaya ozgu degiskenlerdeki degisimlere nasil tepki verdigi incelenmektedir. Model belirsizligi sorununu gidermek icin model ortalamasi yaklasimi kullanilmaktadir. Sonuclarimiz, aktif kalitesi ile makroekonomik ve bankaya ozgu degiskenler arasindaki baglantiya iliskin literaturdeki ana bulgulari dogrulamaktadir. Ayrica, 10 degiskenin kombinasyonu kullanilarak 1023 modelden elde edilen katsayi tahminleri, asiri soklarda bile takipteki kredi oraninin makul sinirlar icinde kaldigini ortaya koymaktadir.
    Date: 2024
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2404&r=ara
  7. By: Chaimaa Achir (Université Hassan 1er [Settat]); Aziz Douari (Université Hassan 1er [Settat])
    Abstract: Within an ever-changing economic landscape, organizations are exposed to a myriad of risks, compelling them to increasingly implement rigorous and sector-appropriate risk management. In this context, the risk of non-recovery of receivables within non-financial companies deserves particular attention due to its significant impact.This article, among the few studiesaddressing this specific topic, aims to shed light on the perceptions and attitudes of risk managers regarding the digitization of non-recovery risk management in non-financial enterprises. It is commonly observed that the risk of non-recovery is more frequently discussed in the context of financial companies, while non-financial enterprises also experience its challenges. The fundamental idea behind this study is to understand how risk managers perceive this risk and whether they believe that digitizationimpacts its management. The results reflect trends in the adoption of digitization, the perspectives of risk managers, and the observed impacts on non-recovery risk management. The discussion delves deep into these findings, highlighting challenges, successes, and opportunities. By exploring trends, perspectives, and impacts, this research contributes to a broader understanding of the role of digital tools in anticipating, assessing, and mitigating non-recovery risks. The challenges highlighted in the discussion emphasize the need for tailored strategies and further exploration of opportunities for improvement.
    Abstract: Au sein d'un paysage économique en constante évolution, les organisations sont exposées à une myriade de risques, les incitant de plus en plus à mettre en œuvre des processus de gestion des risques rigoureux et adaptés à leur secteur. Dans ce contexte, le risque de non-recouvrement des créances au sein des entreprises non financières mérite une attention particulière en raison de son impact significatif. Cet article, parmi les rares études abordant ce sujet spécifique, vise à éclairer les perceptions et attitudes des gestionnaires de risques concernant la numérisation de la gestion des risques liés au non-recouvrement dans les entreprises non financières. On observe couramment que le risque de non-recouvrement est plus fréquemment discuté dans le contexte des entreprises financières, tandis que les entreprises non financières font également face à ses défis. L'idée fondamentale de cette étude est de comprendre comment les gestionnaires de risques perçoivent ce risque et s'ils estiment que la numérisation a un impact sur sa gestion. Les résultats reflètent les tendances en matière d'adoption de la numérisation, les perspectives des gestionnaires de risques et les impacts observés sur la gestion des risques liés au non-recouvrement. La discussion approfondit ces résultats, mettant en lumière les défis, les succès et les opportunités. En explorant les tendances, les perspectives et les impacts, cette recherche contribue à une compréhension plus large du rôle des outils numériques dans l'anticipation, l'évaluation et l'atténuation des risques liés au non-recouvrement. Les défis soulignés dans la discussion soulignent la nécessité de stratégies adaptées et d'une exploration approfondie des opportunités d'amélioration.
    Keywords: Risk management, Non-recovery risk, Digital tools, Perceptions, Risk managers, Gestion des risques, Risque de non-recouvrement, Outils digitaux
    Date: 2024–02–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04463403&r=ara
  8. By: Hassan Edman (Laboratoire Études et recherches appliquées en sciences économiques (LERASE) - Équipe de recherche en économie de développement (ERED) - Université Ibn Zohr [Agadir])
    Abstract: Contemporary economic analysis continues to focus on proximity as a factor influencing the behavior of agents and their institutions. Recent literature has identified various forms of proximity, notably in the customer-supplier relationship, and particularly in the context of public procurement. With this in mind, a participatory research project was carried out by a local authority, bringing together practitioners involved in the public purchasing process and university researchers. The aim was to identify the most influential forms of proximity, and the research method capable of capturing them, taking into account the evolving and complex nature of the process. The results showed that participatory multi-agent modelling is the most appropriate method for capturing, understanding and analyzing a new form of proximity, one that plays a decisive role in the performance of public procurement. This proximity has three characteristics. It is more social/relational, opportunity-based and trust-based.
    Keywords: Public procurement, participatory research, proximity, social interactions, multi-agent simulation, Commande publique, recherche participative, proximités, interactions sociales, simulation multi-agents
    Date: 2024–02–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04457899&r=ara
  9. By: Asseburg, Muriel
    Abstract: In reaction to the mass killings, atrocities, and hostage-taking by Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other militant groups on 7 October 2023, Israel declared war, further tightened the closure of the Gaza Strip, and started a military operation. More than four months into the war, there has been limited progress towards fulfilling Israel's war aims. At the same time, Gaza's civilian infrastructure and residential buildings have been largely destroyed, its population has been internally displaced, more than 27, 000 Palestinians have been killed, and the humanitarian situation has become ever more horrific. As Israel's representatives have announced elements of a post-war order, and as military operations are increasingly determining facts on the ground, international actors have also started to engage on the topic of the 'day after'. Yet, the interests, priorities, and capabilities of the main protagonists hardly align. Still, the European Union (EU) and its member states should seek to contribute towards ending the war and sustainable stabilisation. Such efforts will have to address governance, security, reconstruction, and a political framework.
    Keywords: Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Hezbollah, hostages, tunnel system, UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, UNRWA, EU Coordinating Office for Palestinian Police Support, EUPOL COPPS, Genocide Convention
    Date: 2024
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:284704&r=ara
  10. By: Fatma Mhadhbi Mhadhbi (ECODEVELOPPEMENT - Ecodéveloppement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, AU - Avignon Université, UCAR - Université de Carthage (Tunisie)); Claude Napoléone (ECODEVELOPPEMENT - Ecodéveloppement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: We examined the impact of agricultural intensification on the wellbeing of rural communities in a developing country on a sub-communal scale. To measure the interactions within this complex causal relationship, a statistical approach was applied, using partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM) in its formative structure. Using PLS-PM to simultaneously relate the measured variables (manifest variables) and conceptual variables (latent variables), while incorporating other variables, such as the bioclimate and demography, we characterized the spatial structure of the links between intensive agriculture and wellbeing. The aim was to facilitate government intervention aiming to improve the wellbeing of rural households, while avoiding cumbersome and costly surveys when the scope of public action is extended to a region or a country. Our findings show that the generalization of the productivist system is not always appropriate in developing countries. In our case study, employment in the secondary and tertiary sectors is insufficient to accommodate the rural exodus. In such situations, agricultural intensification leads to poverty and migration to the areas of production and increases disparities in social wellbeing in rural areas.
    Keywords: agricultural intensification, rural wellbeing, developing country, partial least squares path modeling, Tunisia
    Date: 2022–12–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04487480&r=ara
  11. By: Eren Gürer (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey); Pınar Derin Güre (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey)
    Abstract: In this study, we aim to estimate the labor markups along with the evolution of labor and profit shares in the manufacturing industry of Turkiye over 2007-2021 via an administrative firm-level dataset, Entrepreneurship Information System (EIS), covering the universe of firms and containing detailed balance sheet information. We employ the recently popularized technique, the production function approach developed by De Loecker and Warzynski (2012), to estimate markups. Until 2016, there is a general decline in the level of markups. Concurrently, the gross profit rate slightly increases, and labor share in value added remains relatively stable. However, since 2016, which corresponds to the era of high inflation, there has been a notable surge in gross profit rates alongside a significant decrease in the labor share. The primary catalyst for these post-2016 shifts is attributed to firms positioned in the upper percentiles of the markup distribution, which successfully increased their markups and their share in total value-added during this period. As such, it may be fruitful for the competition policy to delve deeper into the root causes of the post-2016 surge in the markups of the high markup firms as well as the changing market composition.
    Keywords: markup, market power. profits
    JEL: D22 D43
    Date: 2024–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:2401&r=ara

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