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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Valérie Berenger (University of Toulon) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses levels and trends in vulnerability to multidimensional poverty for two different years in Algeria (2012/13 and 2019) and Tunisia (2012 and 2018). Using as benchmark the M-gamma multidimensional poverty measures as developed by Alkire and Foster (2019), it follows the approach suggested by Gallardo (2022). To preserve the multidimensional nature of poverty, the joint probability of being poor and deprived in each dimension is modelled using multidimensional Bayesian networks classifiers and the vulnerability by mean risk approach (VMR) to vulnerability measurement. Despite similar levels of multidimensional poverty, vulnerability measures are higher in Tunisia than in Algeria. In addition, the achievements in poverty reduction are more fragile in Tunisia than in Algeria. The results show that moderate vulnerability prevails over severe vulnerability both in Algeria and Tunisia. Trends over time indicate that in Algeria, vulnerability seems to be shifting more towards moderate vulnerability while the opposite is observed in Tunisia. The indicators that differentiate severe from moderate vulnerability are mainly related to health and education dimensions both in Algeria and Tunisia. We show that chronic poverty among the vulnerable is larger in Tunisia than in Algeria. Our results reveal also different trajectories in the evolution of the vulnerability components in these two countries. |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1698&r=ara |
| By: | Antoine Castet (Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, UMR D&S, Paris, France); Racha Ramadan (Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic may have threatened food security, an important issue for economic development. In this paper, we use surveys on five MENA countries to assesses the food insecurity situation during the pandemic. Using descriptive statistics and the logit method, we show that characteristics such as age, income, and being employed increase/decrease the level of food insecurity of an individual. We also examine the government policies implemented during the period, such as stay-at-home requirements. To this end, we use a new instrument variable for COVID-19, the Google Trends index. We show that these policies have no significant effect on food insecurity. |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1701&r=ara |
| By: | Hajer Habib (University of Tunis El-Manar); Amal Jmaii (University of Tunis El-Manar) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we assess the implications of COVID-19 shocks on household income, food security, and the role of social protection in Tunisia. We used data from the four waves of the Combined COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey conducted by the Economic Research Forum between February 2020 and June 2021. First, the results show that lowincome and labor income-dependent households are the most vulnerable to shocks induced by COVID-19 and that their food habits deteriorated considerably. A total of 78.4 percent of respondents declared that they are in severe food insecurity. Second, we find that food insecurity showed a higher increase in urban areas than in rural areas; self-produced food by farmers who inhabit rural areas represented a food safety net during the pandemic. Finally, households that received a social transfer did not manage to overcome severe food insecurity. The study proves that government social policies have failed to absorb the harmful effects of COVID-19. This is because social protection is mainly oriented toward retired people and excludes those who are most vulnerable to economic shocks. As a result, extending social protection coverage to households that face transitory poverty poses a challenge. |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1699&r=ara |
| By: | Caroline Krafft (St. Catherine University, St. Paul); Heather Moylan (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates women’s economic empowerment in Sudan, with a particular focus on their agency and assets. The analyses use the nationally-representative Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey 2022 data and compare agency and assets by gender. Rights to parcels, livestock, durables, mobile phones, and financial assets are explored, along with gender role attitudes, justification of domestic violence, mobility, and decision-making. The findings show how agency and assets evolve over the life course differently for men and women, with empowerment often diminishing at marriage for women but rising for men. |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1697&r=ara |
| By: | Aysun Hiziroglu Aygün (Istanbul Technical UniversityAuthor-Name: Abdullah Tirgil; Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal relationship between education and mental health in Turkey. We rely on the quasi-experimental setting created by the 1997 compulsory education reform that raised the compulsory years of schooling from five to eight years. Using regression discontinuity design, we use the birth year to indicate reform exposure and identify the causal effects of longer years of schooling on mental health. Our results demonstrate a sizable negative impact of education on the mental health scale. We present evidence that the reform had a more adverse effect on men's mental health. There is also heterogeneity by the place of residence, as the longer school years led people who live in urban areas to experience worse mental health outcomes. By investigating possible mechanisms, we show that those with at least a middle school education did not invest more in their health than those without a middle school diploma. We explain the evidence for the adverse effects of education on mental health, especially experienced by those who face higher competition in the labor market, by the lack of an increase in household income despite the longer years in school. |
| Date: | 2024–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1703&r=ara |
| By: | Fethi Amri (University of Gabes) |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1700&r=ara |
| By: | Youssef Er-Rays; Meriem M'dioud |
| Abstract: | Background: The public hospital network in Morocco plays a crucial role in providing healthcare services. However, this network faces challenges in terms of technical efficiency in healthcare management. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the technical efficiency of the public hospital network in Morocco. Methods: This article compares the efficiency of 77 public hospital networks from 2017 to 2020. Data were collected from the Directorate of Planning and Financial Resources (DPFR) of the Health Ministry Marocco. The Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method was employed, using three inputs (Hospital, Physician and Paramedical) and four outputs (Functional capacity, Hospitalization days and Admission). Additionally, the Malmquist index (MI) is utilized to analyse the factors of production, and peer modelling is incorporated to address hospital inefficiency. Results: The average technical efficiency of public hospital networks under the CRS hypothesis from 2017 to 2020 is 0.697 (71% of DMUs have a score lower than 1), indicating that these networks need to minimize their inputs by approximately 30.3%. The Malmquist index reveals a decline in productivity gain from 2017/2018 (score of 0.980) followed by improvement in 2018/2019 (score of 1.163). In terms of peer modelling, 72.7% of the DMUs should emulate the most effective DMUs beginning in 2020, whereas the lowest score was observed in 2019. Conclusion: These findings highlight the need for the public hospital network in Morocco to enhance the effective and efficient utilization of inputs, such as the number of hospitals and medical and paramedical staff, to produce the same outputs, including the number of surgical procedures, hospitalization days, admissions, and functional capacity. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.14940&r=ara |
| By: | Souad Baya (INSEA - Institut National de Statistique et d’Economie Appliquée [Rabat]); Mohamed Simoh (UAE - Université Abdelmalek Essaâdi); Ghizlan Loumrhari (UAE - Université Abdelmalek Essaâdi) |
| Abstract: | The economic debate surrounding the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on prices has sparked in-depth discussions, leading to several conclusions supported by empirical literature. Fundamentally, it exerts significant pressure on competitiveness, price stability, and other fundamental macroeconomic variables. The primary objective of this study is to theoretically and empirically examine the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation. Specifically, this paper aims to assess the Pass-Through coefficient from the exchange rate to domestic prices and analyze its evolution over time. To account for the reciprocal interactions between inflation and exchange rate variations, we will use a model based on quarterly data covering the period from Q1-2000 to Q4-2021. Conclusions drawn from the analysis of impulse response functions and variance decomposition indicate that any shock to the exchange rate results in a significant inflation response. Furthermore, this reaction appears to reflect an incomplete degree of the transmission mechanism. Additionally, our findings have shown that the mentioned coefficient experienced a surge from the first to the second period, similar to various advanced economies that underwent an increase in Pass-Through over time. |
| Abstract: | Le débat économique autour de l'impact des fluctuations des taux de change sur les prix a suscité des discussions approfondies, conduisant à plusieurs conclusions étayées par la littérature empirique. Fondamentalement, il exerce une pression importante sur la compétitivité, la stabilité des prix ainsi que d'autres variables macroéconomiques fondamentales. L'objectif fondamental de cette étude consiste à examiner de manière théorique et empirique les effets des fluctuations du taux de change sur l'inflation. Plus précisément, ce document vise à évaluer le coefficient de transmission du taux de change aux prix intérieurs et à analyser son évolution au fil du temps. Afin de prendre en compte les interactions réciproques entre l'inflation et les variations du taux de change, nous allons utiliser un modèle basé sur des données trimestrielles couvrant la période de T1-2000 à T4-2021. Les conclusions déduites de l'examen des fonctions de réponse impulsionnelle et de la décomposition de la variance indiquent que tout choc sur le taux de change génère une réponse significative de l'inflation. De plus, cette réaction semble refléter un degré incomplet du mécanisme de transmission. Également, nos résultats ont montré que ledit coefficient a subi une flambée de la première à la deuxième période, comme différente s économies avancées, ayant connu une augmentation du Pass-Through dans le temps. |
| Keywords: | Real Exchange Rate pass-through, SVAR, shocks, imported inflation, impulse responses, variance decomposition, Pass-through du Taux de Change Réel, chocs, inflation importé, réponses impulsionnelles, décomposition de la variance |
| Date: | 2024–01–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04450899&r=ara |
| By: | Muez Ali (Center for a Sustainable Future, Qatar Foundation, Qatar); Abdalftah Hamid (Center for a Sustainable Future, Qatar Foundation, Qatar); Gonzalo Castro de la Mata (Center for a Sustainable Future, Qatar Foundation, Qatar); Alex Amato (Center for a Sustainable Future, Qatar Foundation, Qatar) |
| Abstract: | Qatar exports most of its LNG to South Korea, Japan, China and India. Most of Qatar’s export markets have carbon-intensive economies where industry contributes, on average, 32% to total GDP. This paper attempts to estimate the reductions in carbon dioxide emissions due to Qatar’s LNG displacing more carbon-intensive fuels in Qatar’s main export markets. LNG emits almost 50% less carbon dioxide than coal and 30% less carbon dioxide than oil products. Therefore, LNG is a cleaner alternative to coal and oil products, particularly in the power sector and industry. Using data from the IEA, EIA and the World Bank, we estimate the reductions in carbon dioxide emissions due to Qatar’s LNG replacing more carbon-intensive fuels in Qatar’s export markets by assuming a hypothetical scenario where Qatar’s LNG disappears from the global energy mix between 2005 and 2020. We estimate an upper bound where all of Qatar’s LNG is replaced by coal and a lower bound where Qatar’s LNG is replaced by all fuels in the energy mix in proportion to their existing shares. Finally, using a stochastic approach, we develop a ‘most likely’ scenario that considers the annual growth rate in coal consumption and the share of coal in the energy mix.The same analysis is conducted for a scenario that projects energy consumption and emissions to 2040. The results of the analysis show that between 2005 and 2020, in the ‘most likely’ scenario, by replacing coal and other carbon-intensive fuels, Qatar’s LNG exports likely reduced global emissions by more than 600 MtCO2. During the same period, these emission reductions amounted to 40% of Qatar’s annual local emissions on average. However, in the future scenario, emission reductions due to Qatar’s LNG exports decrease significantly and the gap between Qatar’s local emissions and how much it offsets by exporting LNG grows over time. This is mainly due to the phase out of coal from global energy systems. We conclude with policy recommendations on how Qatar can close the gap between its local emissions and how much it offsets through LNG exports. |
| Date: | 2024–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1702&r=ara |
| By: | Mikhail Miklyaev (Cambridge Resource International Inc.); Alan S. Wyatt (Cambridge Resources International Inc.); Ridha Drebika (Cambridge Resources International Inc.); Owotomiwa (Christiana) Olubamiro (Cambridge Resources International Inc.); Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada, CARBET, Cyprus International University, Nicosia, North Cyprus, and Cambridge Resource International Inc.) |
| Abstract: | The study delves into the economic valuation of water supply projects, assessing not just traditional cost components but also the broader implications of non-market externalities. By employing contingent valuation, it gauges the public's willingness to pay for investment in the reliability and quality of water services. Furthermore, the approach includes a detailed examination of water supply variability, using statistical methods to model and predict the stability of different water sources. An application of the analytical framework is carried out for Morocco. In this study Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is applied to water resource management. It forges a nuanced balance between ensuring a reliable water supply and maintaining economic efficiency in water projects. At a time when water scarcity and climate uncertainty pose complex challenges, the use of the Simulation and Portfolio Optimization Tool (SPOT) developed in this study provides a sophisticated framework for the evaluation and selection of water source portfolios. SPOT equips policymakers with a robust tool for developing water management strategies that are both adaptable to changing environmental conditions and grounded in economic reality. The insights provided by this research contribute to the strategic planning and economic efficiency in the design of water systems, highlighting the critical intersections of cost, reliability, and supply variability. It marks a pragmatic progression in resource management, aiming to align the stewardship of water resources with both environmental sustainability and economic efficiency. |
| Keywords: | water supply projects, contingent valuation, willingness to pay, water service reliability, water service quality, water supply variability, Morocco, Modern Portfolio Theory, water resource management, economic efficiency, water source portfolios, policymaking, strategic planning, resource management, environmental sustainability. |
| Date: | 2024–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:4614&r=ara |