|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Zina Nimeh (Maastricht University); Tamara A. Kool; Guido Heins |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comparative analysis of social insurance systems in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia. It examines legal, structural, and institutional distinctions and investigates efforts to extend coverage to challenging-to-insure groups and sectors. Conceptualized within the framework of the social contract, the analysis takes a two-pronged approach. Firstly, a mapping of the legal provisions and de jure coverage of social insurance schemes is conducted for all three countries to assess the inequalities in access to contributory social insurance schemes and identify vulnerable groups at risk of exclusion due to labor market dynamics and economic structures. Secondly, de facto social insurance coverage is explored by analyzing data from the Integrated Labor Market Panel Surveys (ILMPS) for Egypt (2018), Jordan (2016), and Tunisia (2014). The analysis reveals that in all three countries, gaps are present between de jure and de facto social insurance coverage. This is especially true for those engaged in sectors characterized by high informality, daily wage laborers, women, youth, and low-income individuals. Additionally, significant gaps persist between the private sector and the public sector. The findings underline the need for a comprehensive approach to foster inclusivity in the social insurance system, which can significantly upgrade the broader social contract. |
| Date: | 2023–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1660&r=ara |
| By: | Chahir Zaki (University of Orléans); Alzaki Alhelo (University of Khartoum); Kabbashi Suliman (University of Khartoum) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to examine the nexus between trade, food security and the war in Ukraine with a special focus on Egypt and Sudan. Given the high dependency of the two countries on wheat imports, both experienced high inflation and lower economic growth, threatening their food security. Thus, the contribution of the paper is threefold: first, it examines the macroeconomic implications of the war on the two economies. Second, it analyzes the extent to which food security deteriorated and finally how trade can partially help improve food security in the two countries. To do so, using an error correction model, our results show that the exchange rate pass through was high in Egypt and Sudan and can have long-term implications on inflation. To move forward, we explore how the two countries might develop bilateral capacities targeting agriculture, electricity, and infrastructure with the view to scale-up the economic cooperation. We show, using the trade complementarity index that despite a limited complementarity between their trade structures, there is room to increase their bilateral exports if infrastructure and other behind-theborder barriers are addressed. |
| Date: | 2023–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1659&r=ara |
| By: | AlAzzawi, Shireen (Santa Clara University); Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Hlasny, Vladimir (UN ESCWA); Abanokova, Kseniya (World Bank); Behrman, Jere R. (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | Various challenges are thought to render female-headed households (FHHs) vulnerable to poverty in the Arab region. Yet, previous studies have mixed results and despite the availability of cross-sectional data, the absence of household panel survey data hinders analysis of poverty dynamics. We address these challenges by proposing a novel typology of FHHs and analyze synthetic panels that we constructed from 20 rounds of repeated cross-sectional surveys spanning the past two decades from Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Mauritania, Palestine, and Tunisia. We find that the definition of FHHs matters for measuring poverty levels and dynamics. Most types of FHHs are less poor, but FHHs with a major share of female adults are generally poorer. FHHs are more likely to escape poverty than households on average, but FHHs without children are most likely to do so. While more children are generally associated with more poverty for FHHs, there is heterogeneity across countries is addition to heterogeneity across FHH measures. Our findings provide useful inputs for social protection and employment programs aiming at reducing gender inequalities and poverty in the Arab region. |
| Keywords: | poverty, feminization, female-headedness typology, synthetic panels, Arab region, household surveys |
| JEL: | I3 J16 N35 O1 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16641&r=ara |
| By: | Rabah Arezki (Harvard Kennedy School); Adnan Mazarei (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | The Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) is addicted to fossil fuels, but so too is the rest of the world economy. Solutions to the energy transition have thus to be found in a coordinated global shift in both the supply and demand for fossil fuels and clean(er) energy, where multilateral institutions can play an important role. These institutions could help bolster international technology transfers to MENA, as well as scale up investment and trade in clean energy to facilitate the global energy transition. Given the potential in MENA for solar power, the region could remain a global hub, this time for clean energy. |
| Date: | 2023–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:283&r=ara |
| By: | Ghada Barsoum |
| Abstract: | Do employers discriminate against married women? This research submitted fictitious resumes to online job postings in Egypt, randomizing gender and marital status. More job postings explicitly required men (14 per cent) than women (4 per cent). Despite the gender discrimination in postings, women were only slightly less likely to receive callbacks than men, with only a small difference between single and married women. Differences in callbacks by sex and marital status were not statistically significant. Women and especially married women were, however, particularly likely to be asked for more information rather than scheduled for an interview. The findings suggest that the low employment rate of women and especially married women in Egypt, at least in the segment of the labour market we are able to examine, is not primarily due to employer discrimination at the callback stage. |
| Date: | 2023–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:swp20232&r=ara |
| By: | Caroline Krafft (St. Catherine University); Cyrine Hannafi (Caisse nationale d’allocations familiales (CNAF)) |
| Abstract: | Contributory social insurance provides essential benefits to workers when they retire and is associated with a host of other benefits while working. Yet social insurance coverage is low and declining in Egypt. This paper uses both panel and retrospective data from Egypt to assess the dynamics behind these trends in social insurance coverage. Analyses examine the dynamics of gaining social insurance, including specifically at entry and when already working but uninsured. Losing social insurance, both when continuing to work and due to exiting work, is also examined. The results highlight not only the decline of social insurance coverage but an informality trap: workers often obtain social insurance at the start of a job, and so long as they remain employed in that job, are unlikely to lose social insurance. However, workers who start work without social insurance coverage rarely gain social insurance thereafter, unless they change jobs. One reason for the decline in social insurance may be the low value workers place on coverage; the unemployed have, typically, the same reservation wages for jobs with and without social insurance coverage. |
| Date: | 2023–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1655&r=ara |
| By: | Ragui Assaad (Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota); Sarah Wahby (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | We analyze in this paper the decline in social insurance coverage in Egypt from 2007 to 2021 to determine the extent to which it was due to compositional shits in the structure of the economy or the workforce as opposed to changes in coverage for specific types of jobs and workers. We conclude that only a fraction of the decline in coverage can be attributed to structural changes in the economy or to changes in the characteristics of firms and workers. The largest decline in coverage occurred in the period from 2014 to 2017 and were concentrated among male new entrants with no formal education in private sector services working in micro and small enterprises. Although the declines occurred for both wage and nonwage workers, they were larger for the latter. Correcting for firm size, we see that there was a slight reversal in the declining trend post 2018, but coverage rates in 2021 remain well below what they were in 2014 when the declining trend accelerated |
| Date: | 2023–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1658&r=ara |
| By: | : Angela C. Lyons (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Alejandro Montoya Castano (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); : Josephine Kass-Hanna (IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille); : Yifang Zhang (University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign); Aiman Soliman (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) |
| Abstract: | Increasing trends in forced displacement and poverty are expected to intensify in coming years. Data science approaches can be useful for governments and humanitarian organizations in designing more robust and effective targeting mechanisms. This study applies machine learning techniques and combines geospatial data with survey data collected from Syrian refugees in Lebanon over the last four years to help develop more robust and operationalizable targeting strategies. Our findings highlight the importance of a comprehensive and flexible framework that captures other poverty dimensions along with the commonly used expenditure metric, while also allowing for regular updates to keep up with (rapidly) changing contexts over time. The analysis also points to geographical heterogeneities that are likely to impact the effectiveness of targeting strategies. The insights from this study have important implications for agencies seeking to improve targeting, especially with shrinking humanitarian funding |
| Date: | 2023–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1654&r=ara |
| By: | Irene Selwaness (Cairo University); Ghada Barsoum (AUC) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the extent to which the institutional framework for social insurance (SI) might constrain access to contributory schemes and explain workers’ coverage gaps. We use nationally representative microdata from Egypt to test how the design leads to the exclusion of specific categories of workers. We show that the legal framework for SI allows certain types of workers (the self-employed and employers in unregistered enterprises) to opt out of the SI system, thus legalizing and legitimating employment informality. Although the law explicitly highlights the objective of including informal workers, the difficulty of the required documentation and the focus on specific occupations show that it fails to recognize the diversity of this group. Our findings also show that the lack of SI coverage happened even among workers who should be covered by law, i.e., regular wage workers, due to the substantial increases in the minimum insurable wage upon which contributions are calculated, rendering the scheme less attractive for both employers and employees. The paper demonstrates that the conditions of enrollment, cost, and benefit design for SI schemes disincentivize both employers and employees from contributing to the system |
| Date: | 2023–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1661&r=ara |
| By: | Hajar Fanchy (Economic Performance and Logistics - University Hassan II [Casablanca]); Amal El Mzabi (Economic Performance and Logistics - University Hassan II [Casablanca]); Ahmed Hefnaoui (Economic Performance and Logistics - University Hassan II [Casablanca]) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the origins of cyclical macroeconomic fluctuations in Morocco. A reduced Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is used to identify these fluctuations, with a specific focus on demand, supply and monetary policy shocks. The study leverages data spanning from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2022.The results indicates that supply pertubations predominantly drive production and inflation fluctuations within Morocco. Our economy tends to react more sensitively to supply-side factors, such as productivity fluctuations, supply chain interruptions and agricultural supply dynamics. The implications of these findings are significant for policy-makers, revealing the necessity to adjust and adapt their policies in order to stabilise the economy and promote economic growth. |
| Abstract: | Cet article explore les origines des fluctuations cycliques au Maroc en utilisant un modèle d'équilibre général stochastique dynamique (DSGE) réduit privilégiant l'examen des chocs résultant des variations de la demande, de l'offre, ainsi que de la politique monétaire. Pour étayer notre étude, nous mobilisons des données s'étalant du premier trimestre 2007 au quatrième trimestre 2022. Les résultats obtenus soulignent le rôle prépondérant des perturbations du côté de l'offre dans les variations de la production et de l'inflation au Maroc L'économie réagit de manière plus marquée aux facteurs liés l'offre, notamment la productivité, les interruptions de la chaîne d'approvisionnement et la dynamique de l'offre agricole. Les implications de ces constatations sont d'importance pour les décideurs politiques, mettant en évidence la nécessité d'ajuster et d'adapter leur politique en vue de stabiliser l'économie et de promouvoir la croissance économique. |
| Keywords: | Business cycle, Reduced DSGE, Fluctuations origins, Supply shocks., Cycle économique, DSGE réduit, Origines de fluctuations, Chocs d'offre. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04304857&r=ara |
| By: | Fozan Fareed; Abolfazl Rezghi; Charlotte Sandoz |
| Abstract: | Inflationary pressures have intensified in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 2021-2022, mainly driven by a pick-up in tradeable goods inflation. Despite this increase, inflation remained relatively contained as compared to regional comparators. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of inflation dynamics in the region, with a focus on external factors because of GCC’s high reliance on international trade. Using a Global Vector Autoregressive model with quarterly data from 1987 to 2022, we find that external factors such as the imported inflation from main trading partners, mainly driven by China, and nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) are the main drivers of inflation in the GCC region. Additionally, we find that the direct pass-through of international commodity price shocks such as oil and raw agricultural materials is somewhat limited, after controlling for trading partners’ inflation, which can be explained by the prevalence of subsidies and administered prices in the region. Overall, since external factors are the main drivers of domestic inflation in the GCC, an increased focus on diversification, promoting food security, and ensuring prudent central bank policies, including through effective liquidity management frameworks, can play a key role in managing this impact. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; external shocks; GCC; panel data; GVAR. |
| Date: | 2023–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/263&r=ara |
| By: | Abderrahmane Talibi (Université Ibn Zohr [Agadir]); Abdelmajid Aboutarik |
| Abstract: | The semiolinguistic approach, as intended by its precursor P. Charaudeau, brings together four orders of discourse organization. These are the enunciative order, the argumentative order, the narrative order and the rhetorical order. These different orders intersect to make up the various dimensions of the notion of the speech act defined by Charaudeau as a result of a discursive staging by acting subjects (JEc and TUi), with a semantic-formal language material that organizes itself into speech contracts and strategies. As for our study, which does not require a detailed analysis neither the occasion nor the nature of the work allow us to go into great detail about the discursive organization of our speech act, so it is approached from the enunciative side. |
| Abstract: | L'approche sémiolinguistique comme elle est voulue par son précurseur P. Charaudeau rassemble quatre ordres d'organisation du discours. Ainsi, nous comptons l'ordre énonciatif, l'ordre argumentatif, l'ordre narratif et l'ordre rhétorique. Ces différents ordres s'entrecroisent pour composer les dimensions diverses de la notion de l'acte de langage définie par Charaudeau en tant que résultat d'une mise en scène discursive faite par des sujets agissants (JEc et TUi), avec une matière langagière sémantico-formelle qui s'organise en contrats et stratégies de parole. Quant à notre étude qui ne demande pas une analyse bien détaillée, ni l'occasion et la nature du travail ne permettent de détailler amplement l'organisation discursive de notre acte de langage, elle est donc abordée du côté énonciatif. |
| Keywords: | Publicité - Persuasion - Confiance en soi - Implication - Médiateur/modérateur - Echelles - Equations structurelles, Sémiolinguistique, Rhétorique, Enonciation de la subjectivité dans le discours, Maroc, Discour médiatique |
| Date: | 2023–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04326568&r=ara |
| By: | Soheila Khajoui; Saeid Dehyadegari; Sayyed Abdolmajid Jalaee |
| Abstract: | The present study aimed to forecast the exports of a select group of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and Iran using the neural networks. The data concerning the exports of the above countries from 1970 to 2019 were collected. The collected data were implemented to forecast the exports of the investigated countries for 2021 to 2025. The analysis was performed using the Multi-Layer-Perceptron (MLP) neural network in Python. Out of the total number, 75 percent were used as training data, and 25 percent were used as the test data. The findings of the study were evaluated with 99% accuracy, which indicated the reliability of the output of the network. The Results show that Covid-19 has affected exports over time. However, long-term export contracts are less affected by tensions and crises, due to the effect of exports on economic growth, per capita income and it is better for economic policies of countries to use long-term export contracts. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2312.15535&r=ara |
| By: | Nico Dogaer (FWO - Research Foundation - Flanders [Brussel]) |
| Abstract: | The historiography of fiscality in Ptolemaic Egypt is dominated by questions of state control, centralisation, dirigisme, and economic planning, often expressed in terms of the "royal economy". The idea of such a strictly supervised state economy is rooted in the still fundamental syntheses of the 1930s and 1940s. In the meantime, both the publication of new documents and the adoption of new theoretical frameworks have led scholars to challenge this concept. In this paper, the history of the dirigiste views and the recent developments eroding them are traced. Two core areas are singled out and treated in more detail: land tenure and taxation, and the so-called "royal monopolies". In addition, some reflections are offered on the concept of the "royal economy" itself, suggesting that there may be more useful ways to approach the Ptolemaic fiscal system. |
| Abstract: | L'historiographie de la fiscalité dans l'Égypte lagide est dominée par les questions d'étatisme, de centralisation, de dirigisme et de planification économique, souvent exprimées en termes d'« économie royale ». L'idée d'une économie d'État étroitement contrôlée par les rois est ancrée dans les synthèses encore fondamentales des années 1930 et 1940. Depuis cette époque, la publication de nouveaux documents et l'adoption de nouveaux cadres théoriques ont conduit les chercheurs à mettre en question ce paradigme. Dans cet article, l'histoire de ces vues dirigistes, aussi bien que les progrès récents qui les ont érodées, sont retracées. Deux domaines principaux sont traités plus en détail : le régime et la fiscalité foncières, et les prétendus « monopoles royaux ». De plus, quelques réflexions sont proposées sur l'utilité du concept d'« économie royale » lui-même comme approche pour aborder le système fiscal lagide. |
| Keywords: | Ptolemaic Egypt, papyrology, political economy, taxation, markets, Égypte lagide, papyrologie, économie politique, fiscalité, marchés |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04305584&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Four years into the ongoing economic crisis, a concern exists that operations in Lebanon’s tax and customs administrations could collapse. This report describes the challenges faced, encourages that immediate interventions be made, identifies structural mechanisms to finance reforms, and provides guidance on reform and capacity development priorities for the next 36 months. |
| Keywords: | Tax Administration; Customs Administration; Reform; Modernization; Information Technology |
| Date: | 2023–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/383&r=ara |
| By: | TÜRKER Melis |
| Abstract: | The TR33 SDG Monitoring and Evaluation Report sheds light on the relationship between the TR33 Regional perspective and sustainable development goal by utilising regional data. It explainsthe progress and challenges the region faces in achieving the SDGs. The report includes recommendations for future improvements in terms of regional data platforms. It offers a comprehensive analysis of the TR33 Region's performance in critical areas related to sustainable development, including economic growth, social inclusion, environmental sustainability, and governance. THis report will help policymakers, stakeholders and researchers gain a deeper understanding of the TR33 Region's specific context and identify areas for targeted interventions and policy adjustments. It has the potential to be a vital tool for monitoring and evaluating the region's progress towards sustainable development, ultimately guiding decision-making processes for a more prosperous and inclusive future in the TR33 Region. The TR33 SDG Monitoring and Evaluation Report analyses 83 indicators offered by JRC and additional indicators to monitor and evaluate data used to measure the TR33 Region 2030 Agenda. IThe data sources are international, national and regional in origin. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc134404&r=ara |
| By: | Fachry Abdul Razak Afif (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economy and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Venkatachalam Anbumozhi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Dongmei Chen (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC)); Alin Halimaussadiah (LPEM FEB UI); Vida Hardjono (University of Indonesia); Roes E.G. Lufti (LPEM FEB UI); Dian Lutfiana (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Julio Mauricio (KAPSARC); Alloysius Joko Purwanto (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Prof. Widodo Wahyu Purwanto (University of Indonesia); Jitendra Roychoudhury (KAPSARC); Citra Endah Nur Setyawati (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Majed Al Suwailem (KAPSARC); Wing T. Woo (Jeffrey Cheah Institute on Southeast Asia) |
| Abstract: | As carbon dioxide emission reductions become increasingly urgent to counter climate change, many nations have announced netzero emissions targets. Achieving a net-zero economy will require the decarbonisation of electricity generation, massive expansion of low-carbon energy systems, and investment in net-zero-carbon technologies. These adjustments must consider the existing energy, economic, and social development imperatives of advanced and developing countries, while encouraging regional cooperation. This brief assesses energy transition challenges for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and proposes new policy pathways towards an inclusive global netzero economy |
| Date: | 2023–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2022-09&r=ara |
| By: | Abderazak Madouri (Research Center in Applied Economics for Development –CREAD-Algeria); Hacene Tchoketch-Kebir (Research Center in Applied Economics for Development –CREAD-Algeria) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the potential benefits of an alternative exchange rate regime proposed by Jeffrey Franke, called the Commodity-Currency Basket (CCB) regime, over the current exchange rate regime in Algeria. The CCB regime, which combines the advantages of both floating and fixed exchange rate systems, has been suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of oil price volatility on the economies of countries that heavily rely on oil exports. We use wavelet analysis and quantile-on-quantile regression techniques to estimate and evaluate the impact of the CCB regime on internal and external balance indicators in Algeria, including inflation rates and foreign exchange reserves, over the period of 2001-2021. The findings suggest that the CCB regime is superior to the current floating exchange rate system in terms of maintaining monetary stability and achieving internal and external balance, while also providing more flexibility and stimulation to the domestic economy due to its ability to achieve terms of trade stability through an active countercyclical monetary policy. However, the proposed regime remains subject to further discussion, adjustment, experimentation, and development |
| Date: | 2023–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1656&r=ara |