nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2023‒11‒27
24 papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi, Université d’Ottawa

  1. Towards hydro-transparency on the Euphrates-Tigris basin: mapping surface water changes in Iraq, 1984–2015 By Mason, Michael; Akıncı, Zeynep Sıla; Bilgen, Arda; Nasir, Noori; Al-Rubaie, Azhar
  2. Energy Policy Pathways to Inform Climate Policy in Saudi Arabia By Walid Matar; Noura Mansouri; Evar Umeozor
  3. Employment Potential of Renewable Energy in Saudi Arabia: A Value Chain Analysis By Cian Mulligan
  4. The Effects of Economic Measures on House Prices in Turkey During the Covid-19 By Gülnaz engül Güne; Sinan Güne; Daniel Oeter
  5. The Role of Petrochemical Sector Exports in the Diversification of the Saudi Economy: A Scenario Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Price Shocks By Fakhri Hasanov; Muhammad Javid; Heyran Aliyeva
  6. Political and economic drivers of Sudan's armed conflict: Implications for the agri-food system By Abushama, Hala; Resnick, Danielle; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.
  7. The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics - The case of the Turkish lira By Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert L.
  8. Why Is Tunisia’s Unemployment So High? Evidence From Policy Factors By Aymen Belgacem; Jérôme Vacher
  9. Reconsidering Inventories: An International Strategy for Strategic Storage Assets By Jennifer Considine; Philipp Galkin; Majed Al Suwailem; Abdullah Aldayel
  10. The E-learning, a resilience strategy of moroccan higher education during Covid-19 crisis. By Ayoub El Bahi; Mountacer Bourjila; Fatima Charef
  11. Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms on Potential Output: The Case of Morocco By Hippolyte W. Balima; Olivier Bizimana; Ananta Dua
  12. Modeling the Determinants of Electric Vehicle Adoption: A Saudi Perspective By Ryan Alyamani; Dimitris Pappelis; Maria Kamargianni
  13. Re-Assessing the Impacts of Exports on Local Labour Market Outcomes: A Supply Chain Perspective. Evidence from Egypt By Tillian, Pablo; Kokas, Deeksha; Góes, Carlos; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys
  14. The Location and the Best Use Correlation Model of Data Centers in Turkey By Cihan Ceviz; Kerem Yavuz Arslanli
  15. Women in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) "Egyptian case study" By Mohamed Ramadan A. Rezk; Breyhan Shafai; Leonardo Piccinetti; Nahed Salem; Shaimaa Elbanna; Amr Radwan; Mahmoud M. Sakr
  16. Evaluation of the diabetes care cascade and compliance with WHO global coverage targets in Iran based on STEPS survey 2021 By Azadnajafabad, Sina; Ahmadi, Naser; Rezaei, Negar; Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi; Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar; Mohammadi, Esmaeil; Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen; Naderian, Mohammadreza; Ghasemi, Erfan; Farzi, Yosef; Kazemi, Ameneh; Dilmaghani-Marand, Arezou; Yoosefi, Moein; Rezaei, Shahabeddin; Nasserinejad, Maryam; Fattahi, Nima; Rezaei, Nazila; Haghshenas, Rosa; Foroutan Mehr, Elmira; Koolaji, Sogol; Razi, Farideh; Djalalinia, Shirin; Larijani, Bagher; Farzadfar, Farshad
  17. Risk of incident cardiovascular diseases at national and subnational levels in Iran from 2000 to 2016 and projection through 2030: Insights from Iran STEPS surveys By Ebrahimi, Hedyeh; Masinaei, Masoud; Aminorroaya, Arya; Aryan, Zahra; Mehdipour, Parinaz; Rostam-Abadi, Yasna; Ahmadi, Naser; Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar; Pishgar, Farhad; Ghanbari, Ali; Rezaei, Nazila; Takian, Amirhossein; Farzadfar, Farshad
  18. Transaction Attributes and Mode of Governance of Multimodal Transport in Morocco: Case of Maritime Shipowners By Chabel Saâdia
  19. Sequential School Choice with Public and Private Schools By Andersson, Tommy; Dur, Umut; Ertemel, Sinan; Kesten, Onur
  20. Comparative Analysis of Real Housing Values And Virtual Land Prices in Istanbul By Yadigâr Gökçe imek; Serhat Basdogan; Ilir Nase
  21. Kuwait’s readiness for the knowledge-based economy: an exploratory study By Alajmi, Bibi A.
  22. Ecologies of belonging and exclusion in urban Kuwait: towards an urban co-designed approach By Shahrokni, Nazanin; Sofos, Spyros
  23. Armed conflict and business operations in Sudan: Survey evidence from agri-food processing firms [in Arabic] By Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
  24. 동지중해 천연가스 개발 현황과 한국의 협력 방안(Natural Gas Development in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and Its Implications for Korea) By Ryou, Kwang Ho; Lee, Jieun

  1. By: Mason, Michael; Akıncı, Zeynep Sıla; Bilgen, Arda; Nasir, Noori; Al-Rubaie, Azhar
    Abstract: This policy paper uses open-source software to examine surface water changes in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin from 1984–2015, focusing on Iraq – a downstream riparian state. The timeline captures the impact on Iraq of upstream dam construction, notably in Turkey and Iran, conflicts, and political transformations, and a period of protracted drought across the basin between 2007–18. Between 1984–2015, the area of permanent water in Iraq declined by a third, with greatest losses in the south. There was an 86 percent reduction in area of the Mesopotamian Marshes. In contrast, over the same period, the area of permanent water in Turkey increased by over a quarter. Mapping long-term changes in the occurrence and variability of surface water is a necessary step in achieving greater hydro-transparency; that is, the open availability of information on the movement, storage and management of water within and across state borders. Increased hydro-transparency, through the public provision of evidence-based information, can build trust between the riparian states (Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran), informing options for more sustainable, equitable and reasonable utilisation of basin flows.
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2023–10–26
  2. By: Walid Matar; Noura Mansouri; Evar Umeozor (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Saudi Arabia has announced plans to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 278 million tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). In this regard, this paper contributes a modeling view of the climate-related effects of various energy policies on the Saudi energy system. The baseline entails the continued progression of current domestic policies without energy price reform. We examine two main alternative scenarios: The announced policies scenario (APS) incorporates some of the plans that the Saudi government has announced. In the other scenario, we run the baseline scenario with a cap on total CO2 emissions equal to those displayed in the announced policies.
    Keywords: Applied General model, Bottom up model, Discount rate, Discounting
    Date: 2023–10–30
  3. By: Cian Mulligan (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Localization and local content mandates are an increasing presence in the global investment landscape, and the development of local content policy in Saudi Arabia will be an important factor in the lasting legacy of Vision 2030. While virtually all industries are targeted by local content mandates in Saudi Arabia, a sector tipped for strict targets and maximum local value added is renewable energy production. This is no surprise, as the abundant natural resources of sun and wind make the Kingdom well placed to be globally competitive in the sector, and as the industry is still in its infancy, an opportunity exists to localize from the ground up. This paper looks at the employment possibilities across the value chain of solar PV and onshore wind and, applying the unique characteristics of the Saudi labor force, investigates where localization mandates should target in order to optimize the benefits to the Saudi economy.
    Keywords: Belt and Road, Capital expenditure, Circular Carbon Economy, CO2 emissions
    Date: 2023–10–09
  4. By: Gülnaz engül Güne; Sinan Güne; Daniel Oeter
    Abstract: The demand for housing in Turkey has been increasing in recent years to meet the need for shelter as well as an investment good. Especially during Covid-19, housing prices continued to increase in many regions of Turkey, similar to the development in many other countries around the globe. The Turkish government conducted various measures to counter the severe economic consequences of Covid-19, and several of these measures have had direct and indirect impacts on the housing markets, too. This study analyzes the effect of selected economic measures applied during the pandemic on Turkey's housing prices. Due to data availability, this study focuses on the main housing markets in Turkey: Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, which account for more than one quarter of the Turkish population. The conducted economic measures and other macroeconomic factors are assessed over the Central Bank Money Supply, Consumer Price Index, Unemployment Rate, and Housing Loan Interest Rate variables to analyze potential effects. Hereby, residential real estate prices are evaluated on a regional level to show the potential diverging impacts of the respective measures on local housing markets. Descriptive statistics and stationarity levels of the variables used in the study are examined with the Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. In the study, a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model is used to analyze the various variables’ impact on housing markets in Tukey. While already several studies analyzed the impact of economic measures on house prices in different countries, this study uniquely assesses the impact of such measures in Turkey during Covid-19. The study also evaluates the impact of multiple macroeconomic factors on house prices, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the factors that cause fluctuations in house prices in Turkey. The study can guide policy decisions and investment strategies by providing insights into the impact of economic measures and other macroeconomic factors on house prices.
    Keywords: COVID-19; House Prices; Residential Real Estate; Vector-autoregressive models
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2023–01–01
  5. By: Fakhri Hasanov; Muhammad Javid; Heyran Aliyeva (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Diversification of the economy, including exports, is a core goal of Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030). The petrochemical sector can considerably contribute to the Kingdom’s diversification strategy, as it holds a substantial share in non-oil exports. First, this study econometrically estimated how exports of chemicals and rubber-plastics were shaped by theoretically articulated domestic and foreign factors over the 1993-2020 period. Then, the estimated export equations were integrated into a general equilibrium model, called the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), and a scenario analysis was conducted for the diversification implications of foreign and domestic price shocks until 2035.
    Keywords: Agent based modeling, Analytics, Applied Research, Autometrics
    Date: 2023–10–22
  6. By: Abushama, Hala; Resnick, Danielle; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.
    Abstract: This study assesses the political economy of the conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that brought out in April 2023, resulting in massive violence, displacement, and threats to food security. Based on a series of key informant interviews and other secondary materials, this study identifies that the primary underlying driver of the conflict relates to the rise of competition between the SAF and RSF over productive resources, including within the agri-food system. This scenario has been facilitated by a longstanding lack of scrutiny, accountability, and transparency over the distribution of economic rents and commercial holdings between the two factions. Additionally, the capture of rents from different industries and resources has been a key contributor to the geographic expansion of the conflict. As the conflict continues to rage between the two groups and their associates, it continues to impose considerable impacts on different actors within the agri-food system, posing significant challenges to the planting season and crop production, introducing blockades of trade routes, and a near cessation of agro-processing. We discuss these aspects of the ensuing conflict in view of the uncertainty about political and economic developments and propose policy recommendations for rebuilding Sudan’s agri-food system holistically under different scenarios.
    Keywords: REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; agrifood systems; conflicts; economics; food security; politics; rent; violence
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert L.
    Abstract: This paper examines whether and how expectations have contributed to the turbulent path of the Turkish lira since 2008. We derive uncertainty measures surrounding gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rates based on survey data from Consensus Economics. Our results illustrate that forecasts have affected realized exchange rates and stock market returns via increased uncertainty. We also show that expectations regarding monetary policy have changed throughout the sample period. In line with, a gradual adjustment of expectations professionals have accounted for the violation of the Taylor rule.
    Keywords: disagreement, expectations, foreign exchange, survey data, Taylor rule, Turkish lira, uncertainty
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Aymen Belgacem; Jérôme Vacher
    Abstract: Tunisia has one of the highest unemployment rates within the Middle East and Central Asia. We look at the extent to which institutional factors explain those high unemployment levels. We also assess unemployment cyclicality, by looking at the determinants of labor market sensitivity to the output gap. We find that during the last decade the deterioration of institutional factors that affect labor demand explain not only about a quarter of the unemployment rate increase in Tunisia, but also Tunisia’s excess sensitivity of unemployment to the output gap. Our results suggest that an improved business environment and product market competition, increased labor market flexibility as well as reduced financial constraints and informality would help reduce Tunisia’s unemployment.
    Keywords: Unemployment; Labor Market; Tunisia
    Date: 2023–10–27
  9. By: Jennifer Considine; Philipp Galkin; Majed Al Suwailem; Abdullah Aldayel (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: The purpose of this report is to recommend an interconnected regional and international strategy to share the burden of developing and maintaining commercial and strategic storage infrastructure for Saudi crude oil and products through an alliance with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other countries. If properly implemented, the project has the capacity to enhance the security of oil supply throughout the transition to a green economy. Such enhancement can be achieved through the centralized tracking and management of commercial and strategic stockpiles overseas. The initiative will forge new links in the global supply chain for crude oil and liquids and reveal new forms of financing for strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs).
    Keywords: Agreement, Allocation, Strategic petroleum reserves, Alternative fuels
    Date: 2023–09–26
  10. By: Ayoub El Bahi (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl, UIT - Faculté d’Economie et de Gestion Université Ibn Tofail, Kénitra); Mountacer Bourjila (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl, UIT - Faculté d’Economie et de Gestion Université Ibn Tofail, Kénitra); Fatima Charef (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl, UIT - Faculté d’Economie et de Gestion Université Ibn Tofail, Kénitra)
    Abstract: E-learning is part of information and communication technologies for education (ICTE) and allows teaching without the presence of the teacher or learner. This ‘non-presential' character has clearly shown the place of this form of teaching in situations where we cannot be physically present, such as during the Covid-19 crisis. In such a situation, distance education has become the only way to providing education and training for all levels and types of institutions, while ensuring the protection of health. The examination of the choice of this mode of teaching will therefore arise as a necessity in order to show the degree of its success as a strategy of resilience to adopt in the face of potential crises. From these considerations, the importance of this work derives its legitimacy. the purpose of this paper is to determine first, to what extent we can consider E-learning as a resilience strategy according to the perception of the actors of the Moroccan university, and second, to identify the factors that influence this perception. The data used in this article were collected through 127 answers to a questionnaire consisting of several questions, where each question reveals to an explanatory variable taken from the literature review or deemed to have a logical link with the variable explained, distributed electronically to actors of Moroccan higher education. The response database is treated by SPSS under the logistic regression model. The choice of the Moroccan context demonstrates the originality of the work and, at the same time, it constitutes the main limitation of this work, by limiting the generalizability of the results to other contexts or cultures. The results show that distance learning can be a resilience strategy that needs to evolve.
    Abstract: Le E-learning fait partie des technologies de l'information et de la communication pour l'éducation (TICE) et qui permet un enseignement sans présence de l'enseignant ou l'apprenant. Ce caractère de ‘non présentiel' a montré clairement la place de cette forme d'enseignement dans des situations où on ne peut pas être ‘physiquement' présents, comme lors de la crise de Covid-19. Lors de telle situation, l'enseignement à distance est devenu le seul moyen d'effectuer des parcours d'éducation et de formation pour tous les niveaux et tous les types d'institutions, tout en assurant la protection de la santé. L'examination du choix de ce mode d'enseignement surgira donc comme une nécessité afin de montrer le degré de sa réussite comme stratégie de résilience à adopter face aux éventuelles crises. De ces considérations, l'importance de ce travail tire sa légitimité. Cet article a comme objectif de déterminer premièrement, dans quelle mesure nous pouvons considérer le E-learning comme une stratégie de résilience selon la perception des acteurs de l'université marocain, et deuxièmement de déterminer les facteurs qui influencent cette perception. Les données exploitées dans cet article ont été recueillies à travers 127 réponses à un questionnaire formé de plusieurs questions, où chaque question révèle à une variable explicative tirée de la revue de littérature ou jugée avoir un lien logique avec la variable expliquée, distribué par voie électronique aux acteurs de l'enseignement supérieur marocain. La base de données constituant réponses est traitée par SPSS sous le modèle de régression logistique. Le choix du contexte marocain démontre l'originalité du travail et constitue, au même temps, la principale limite que présente ce travail, en limitant la généralisation des résultats obtenus sur d'autres contextes ou cultures. Les résultats tirés montrent que l'enseignement à distance peut constituer une stratégie de résilience à faire évoluer.
    Keywords: Resilience, E-learning, Higher education, Vulnerability, Covid-19, Résilience, Enseignement supérieur, Vulnérabilite
    Date: 2023–10–21
  11. By: Hippolyte W. Balima; Olivier Bizimana; Ananta Dua
    Abstract: This paper assesses Morocco’s potential output and the scope for structural reforms to reverse the downward trend in economic performance observed since the Global Financial Crisis. Using multivariate filtering (MVF) techniques, our analysis finds that the downward secular trend in potential growth was primarily driven by the decline in the contribution of labor inputs. We then combine production function and general equilibrium model approaches to provide estimates of the potential macroeconomic impact of Morocco’s structural reform agenda. The results suggest that the planned structural reforms could deliver sizable output gains in the medium to long term with reforms that would reduce the large gender gap in Morocco’s labor market yielding the greatest payoffs.
    Keywords: Economic growth; structural reforms; potential output; productivity; multivariate filter; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; fiscal policy; Morocco
    Date: 2023–10–27
  12. By: Ryan Alyamani; Dimitris Pappelis; Maria Kamargianni (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: This study aims to contribute to the literature by shedding light on consumers’ acceptance of electric vehicles (EVs) in Riyadh and their potential response to adoption incentives. A stated preference experiment (SPE) was developed and then incorporated into an online stated preference survey targeting adult residents of Riyadh to collect 703 responses. Accordingly, a mixed logit model was constructed, complemented by other survey insights to derive the final findings of this paper.
    Keywords: Agent based modeling, Electric Vehicles, Autometrics
    Date: 2023–10–23
  13. By: Tillian, Pablo (World Bank); Kokas, Deeksha (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore); Góes, Carlos (University of San Diego); Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys (World Bank)
    Abstract: This paper examines the overall impact of exports while accounting for supply chain linkages on local labor market outcomes in Egypt between 2007 and 2018. We assess the effects not only on directly exporting industries but also on industries indirectly affected by rising export demand. Furthermore, we examine potential impacts on specific worker groups, such as high-skilled individuals and female workers. The results show that trade does not lead to the same connection with domestic labor markets in Egypt as observed in other countries, as highlighted in the existing literature explaining the adverse effects of imports on developing countries. Despite being more open to trade, trade-intensive industries in Egypt have not experienced a significant increase in their share of employment within the overall workforce.
    Keywords: trade policy, trade flows, labor market outcomes, firm dynamics
    JEL: F13 F14 F15 F16 J23 J31 O15 O19
    Date: 2023–10
  14. By: Cihan Ceviz; Kerem Yavuz Arslanli
    Abstract: Data storage and IT equipment housing is demanded rapidly over the last decade parallel to improving the significance of big data. Data Centers (DCs) have supplied service to this demand for decades by being real estate assets built up in strategic locations with housed IT equipment. In parallel with this demand, data center investments have boomed around the globe in the last decade. To develop the supplied service quality of the data center investments, a reputable private organization Uptime Institute provide certification to measure how well a data center as a real estate can be designed and developed by classifying it in 4 classes of tiers. Data center tiers are a classification system, ascending 1, 2, 3, and 4 show the commercial reputation and operational efficiency of data center investments. Data center tiers are awarded after the measurement of operational redundancy in general. The measurement includes performance criteria such as design, infrastructure efficiency, energy efficiency, operational cost structure and location. The research paper focuses on location criteria and their correlative significance on the other performance criteria in general and narrows down into the problem statement; “Many data centers in Turkey are developed by mainly wrong location selection and, it results in operational performance and TIER III and less certified investments”. The research paper aims to test whether a model can be invented for location selection and the best operational use correlation of data center investments. It analyzes Central & Eastern Europe data center real estate market data and selected data centers in a particular methodology for a benchmark to understand how location affects the operational use of a Data Center in Turkey. In the methodology, the research paper explores past data center location decision models like DEMATEL Method, Fuzzy DEMATEL Method and EDAS Method and their results on both energy efficiency and cost of the facility. Furthermore, the research paper utilizes this method to benchmark TIER IV certified data centers using the same fiber optic cable network and data infrastructure. This continuing research provides a map for Turkey data center investor's correlation between selecting the right location and the operational best use of a data center as a real estate.
    Keywords: Data Center; Location Selection Criteria; Operational Best Use; Tier Classification System
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2023–01–01
  15. By: Mohamed Ramadan A. Rezk (Academy of Scientific Research and Technology); Breyhan Shafai (British Council - British Council); Leonardo Piccinetti (Europe for Business, Ltd); Nahed Salem (Academy of Scientific Research and Technology); Shaimaa Elbanna (British Council - British Council); Amr Radwan (Academy of Scientific Research and Technolog); Mahmoud M. Sakr (Academy of Scientific Research and Technology)
    Abstract: The women representation in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields in Egypt is spanning hundreds and even thousands of years back. Yet, there is efforts needed to show women's contributions in recent history and current time. This paper highlights the role of women in STEM and their role as main partners in the science, technology and innovation system, participation of women in science for both decision-making and the scientific community. The survey has been designed to look at and support the participation and progression of women in STEM professionals and to encourage more girls and women to continue their studies and practical life in the STEM Fields. Literature, and particularly analytical literature, available around women in STEM in Egypt is limited; it is often tackled within the scope of women's employment, women's economic empowerment, or education. The paper reviews many challenges faced by women in science, technology and engineering and mathematics but from a practical point of view, where the questions are designed to reflect the scientific and leadership background as well as entrepreneurship and the relationship with the industry and to identify the obstacles that women face in being a business leader and the obstacles that women face in dealing with industry. Through the case study we unpack and examine the multiple thresholds of women and girls in higher education and employment in STEM fields in Egypt. The case study sample shows that while women are engaging in STEM at the tertiary education level, it is the integration into the labor force which makes it difficult for there to be a more equitable distribution of women across all STEM-related sectors. Egypt has a strong tradition of female empowerment and development but remains patriarchal in many aspects of progress and opportunity;
    Keywords: women, STEM, Egypt, STEM survey, entrepreneurship
    Date: 2022–12–30
  16. By: Azadnajafabad, Sina; Ahmadi, Naser; Rezaei, Negar; Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi; Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar; Mohammadi, Esmaeil; Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen; Naderian, Mohammadreza; Ghasemi, Erfan; Farzi, Yosef; Kazemi, Ameneh; Dilmaghani-Marand, Arezou; Yoosefi, Moein; Rezaei, Shahabeddin; Nasserinejad, Maryam; Fattahi, Nima; Rezaei, Nazila; Haghshenas, Rosa; Foroutan Mehr, Elmira; Koolaji, Sogol; Razi, Farideh; Djalalinia, Shirin; Larijani, Bagher; Farzadfar, Farshad
    Abstract: This study aimed to investigate the diabetes mellitus (DM) and prediabetes epidemiology, care cascade, and compliance with global coverage targets. We recruited the results of the nationally representative Iran STEPS Survey 2021. Diabetes and prediabetes were two main outcomes. Diabetes awareness, treatment coverage, and glycemic control were calculated for all population with diabetes to investigate the care cascade. Four global coverage targets for diabetes developed by the World Health Organization were adopted to assess the DM diagnosis and control status. Among 18, 119 participants, the national prevalence of DM and prediabetes were 14.2% (95% confidence interval 13.4–14.9) and 24.8% (23.9–25.7), respectively. The prevalence of DM treatment coverage was 65.0% (62.4–67.7), while the prevalence of good (HbA1C
    Date: 2023
  17. By: Ebrahimi, Hedyeh; Masinaei, Masoud; Aminorroaya, Arya; Aryan, Zahra; Mehdipour, Parinaz; Rostam-Abadi, Yasna; Ahmadi, Naser; Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar; Pishgar, Farhad; Ghanbari, Ali; Rezaei, Nazila; Takian, Amirhossein; Farzadfar, Farshad
    Abstract: Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in developing countries. CVD risk stratification guides the health policy to make evidence-based decisions. To provide current picture and future trend of CVD risk in the adult Iranian population. Nationally representative datasets of 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2016 STEPwise approach to non-communicable diseases risk factor surveillance (STEPS) studies were used to generate the 10-year and 30-year risks of CVD based on Framingham, Globorisk, and World Health Organization (WHO) risk estimation models. Trend of CVD risk was calculated from 2000 until 2016 and projected to 2030. In 2016, based on Framingham model, 14.0% of the Iranian, aged 30 to 74, were at great risk (≥20%) of CVD in the next 10 years (8.0% among females, 20.7% among males). Among those aged 25 to 59, 12.7% had ≥45% risk of CVD in the coming 30 years (9.2% among females, 16.6 among males). In 2016, CVD risk was higher among urban area inhabitants. Age-standardized Framingham 10-year CVD risk will increase 32.2% and 19%, from 2000 to 2030, in females and males, respectively. Eastern provinces had the lowest and northern provinces had the greatest risk. This study projected that CVD risk has increased from 2000 to 2016 in Iran. Without further risk factor modification, this trend will continue until 2030. We have identified populations at higher risks of CVD to guide future intervention.
    Date: 2023
  18. By: Chabel Saâdia (École Supérieure de Technologie Guelmim Université Ibn Zohr Equipe de Recherche en Techniques Economiques et de Gestion (ERTEG))
    Abstract: The rapid evolution of logistics has significantly spurred improvements in freight transportation systems through various logistical modes. Throughout the shipping process, the responsibility for cargo lies entirely with the multimodal transport entrepreneur, thus ensuring a continuous flow of goods from the point of origin to their final destination. The actors capable of assuming this role of multimodal transport entrepreneur are diverse, ranging from shippers to logisticians, shipowners to NVOCCs (Non-Vessel Operating Common Carriers), and freight forwarders to handlers. Our focus is on maritime shipowners as major players in door-to-door transport organizations. Their role holds particular significance due to the substantial volume of cargo they manage, offering considerable potential to address volume shortages observed in the road and rail transport sectors. We employ concepts from transaction cost theory to shed light on the essential determinants of performance in multimodal transport logistics chains led by maritime shipowners. This theoretical approach enables us to highlight the critical factors influencing the efficiency and performance of this complex chain. Each hypothesis derived from this theory is rigorously assessed through empirical observations conducted in an in-depth qualitative study. This analytical approach will enhance our understanding of the intricate interactions, success factors, and challenges maritime shipowners face as key actors in multimodal transport. Furthermore, it will help us discern how these actors can significantly improve transport logistics chains.
    Abstract: L'évolution rapide de la logistique a considérablement stimulé les améliorations des systèmes de transport de marchandises via divers modes logistiques. Tout au long du processus d'acheminement, la responsabilité du chargement repose entièrement sur l'entrepreneur de transport multimodal, garantissant ainsi un flux continu des marchandises du point de départ à leur destination finale. Les acteurs pouvant assumer ce rôle d'entrepreneur de transport multimodal sont variés, allant des chargeurs aux logisticiens, des armateurs aux NVOCC (Non- Vessel Operating Common Carrier), des transitaires aux manutentionnaires. Notre focalisation se concentre sur les armateurs maritimes, en tant qu'acteurs majeurs de l'organisation du transport porte à porte. Leur rôle revêt une importance particulière du fait du volume substantiel de fret qu'ils gèrent, offrant ainsi un potentiel considérable pour pallier les déficits de volume constatés dans les secteurs du transport routier et ferroviaire. Pour éclairer les déterminants essentiels de la performance des chaînes logistiques de transport multimodal, dirigées par les armateurs maritimes, nous mobilisons les concepts de la théorie des coûts de transaction. Cette approche théorique nous permet de mettre en lumière les facteurs cruciaux qui influencent l'efficacité et la performance de cette chaîne complexe. Chaque proposition découlant de cette théorie est rigoureusement évaluée au moyen d'observations empiriques, menées dans le cadre d'une étude qualitative approfondie. Cette démarche analytique nous permettra de mieux comprendre les interactions complexes, les clés du succès, ainsi que les défis auxquels font face les armateurs maritimes en tant qu'acteurs clés du transport multimodal. En outre, elle nous permettra de discerner comment ces acteurs peuvent contribuer de manière significative à l'amélioration globale des chaînes logistiques de transport.
    Keywords: Transport logistics chain, transaction attributes, temporal specificity, uncertainty, modes of governance, Chaîne logistique de transport , attributs de transaction , spécificité temporelle , incertitude , modes de gouvernance, African Scientific Journal, Chaîne logistique de transport, attributs de transaction, spécificité temporelle, incertitude, modes de gouvernance.
    Date: 2023–09–21
  19. By: Andersson, Tommy (Department of Economics, Lund University); Dur, Umut (Department of Economics, North Carolina State University); Ertemel, Sinan (Department of Economics, Istanbul Technical University); Kesten, Onur (School of Economics, University of Sydney)
    Abstract: Motivated by school admissions in Turkey and Sweden, we investigate a sequential two-stage admission system with public and private schools. A sequential notion of truthfulness, called straightforwardness, is introduced. Contrary to one-stage systems, sequentiality leads to a trade-off between the existence of a straightforward equilibrium and non-wastefulness. We identify the unique set of rules for two-stage systems that guarantees the existence of a straightforward equilibrium and reduces waste. Existing admission systems are analyzed within our general framework.
    Keywords: market design; sequential school choice; private schools; public schools; straight- forward SPNE; non-wastefulness
    JEL: C71 C78 D47 D71 D78 D82
    Date: 2023–10–31
  20. By: Yadigâr Gökçe imek; Serhat Basdogan; Ilir Nase
    Abstract: Virtual real estate investments are becoming an increasingly important investment instrument in terms of investing in virtual land assets in the Metaverse. In addition, when investment decisions in the Metaverse are analysed, it is observed that there are highly similar market movements with the real world. This situation can provide insight into real-world prediction when using traditional methods such as multiple linear regression (MLR) on very large databases. This paper analyses the correlation between the two worlds by obtaining statistical results using data mining algorithms.Purpose of the study is to identify the potential high-yielding ones among Istanbul neighborhoods with analyzes made for virtual lands, which are seen as a virtual real estate investment instrument, and to determine the relationship between them by comparative analysis of virtual land values and real estate values. In this context, Metaverse platform ( where the world map is divided into virtual lands, was accessed with open access software to get the data of virtual lands traded in primary and secondary markets within the borders of Istanbul. At the same time, square meters prices data of residential units for sale were also accessed from the real estate site ( with the highest sales volume in Turkey, and these data were converted into land values and statistically analyzed, together with virtual land values, specifically for Istanbul neighborhoods.
    Keywords: Correlation Analysis; land valuation; Virtual Land; Virtual Real Estate
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2023–01–01
  21. By: Alajmi, Bibi A.
    Abstract: The small city-state of Kuwait has undergone marked change over the last century. However, despite the significant transformations within its political economy, Kuwait’s socioeconomic needs require attention. This is essential, considering Kuwait’s current attempt to transform into a knowledge-based economy (KBE), a central component of Kuwait’s Vision 2035 and at the top of the country’s policy agenda. Kuwait’s attempt to diversify its resources requires significant reform in KBE’s four main pillars: effective investment in education, constructing robust and innovative tertiary sector capabilities, modernising the information technology infrastructure, and having an economic environment that is conducive to maximum development. And while Kuwait increasingly invests in ICT infrastructure and a welcoming economic environment, education and innovation seem to lag. This research aims to address the increased demand for academically based explorations of Kuwait’s attempts to transfer to a knowledge-based economy and present a comprehensive analysis of Kuwait’s Vision 2035, with emphasis on how the country aims to develop its education and innovation pillars to aid diversification efforts. By involving the relevant participants (e.g., government ministries and higher education institutions), this research seeks to inform policy debates by proposing actionable policies targeting education and innovation and, thus, defines concrete steps to strengthen the KBE in Kuwait.
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2023–11–01
  22. By: Shahrokni, Nazanin; Sofos, Spyros
    Abstract: The development of Kuwait City’s urban agglomeration – home to 3 million inhabitants, 71.2 percent of the country’s population – is connected to the country’s discovery of oil in 1938. As citizenship became the key to benefiting from Kuwait’s oil wealth, a complex system of differential inclusion and exclusion was devised to identify those entitled and the type and extent of entitlement. Kuwait’s oil wealth presented the emirate’s rulers with the resources to turn Kuwait’s citadel into a modern administrative and commercial centre, but the new city plans largely failed to have an equalising effect. Instead, the existing hierarchical character and divides of Kuwait were grafted onto its urban space. The urban sprawl that replaced Kuwait’s citadel was divided into districts whose boundaries reinforced status, class, ethnic and gender divides. Housing and mobility in the city, leisure and work all became entangled in a complex web of exclusion and inclusion. This paper draws on the findings of a year-long project on the ecologies of inclusion and exclusion in urban Kuwait and its impact on inclusive and effective urban governance.
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2023–10–23
  23. By: Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
    Keywords: REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; conflicts; agrifood sector; employment; food processing; livelihoods; food security; beverage industry; infrastructure; inputs; Sudan Armed Forces; Rapid Support Forces
    Date: 2023
    Abstract: 주요 에너지 생산국의 자원 무기화와 이에 따른 천연가스 가격 변동폭 확대로 글로벌 에너지 안보 위협이 크게 확대된 가운데, 최근 천연가스전 탐사 및 개발 사업이 활발히 이루어지고 있는 동지중해 지역이 새로운 에너지 허브로 주목받고 있다. 본 연구에서는 동지중해 지역 내 천연가스 개발과 이를 둘러싼 인프라 구축 및 파생 산업 육성 현황을 살펴보고 우리나라와의 협력 시사점을 도출하였다. This study explores the current status of natural gas development in the Eastern Mediterranean region and derives its implications for Korea. Our approach encompassed a thorough review of pertinent literature and statistical data, and insightful interviews with local government officials and industry experts, conducted through field surveys and seminars. The key findings of this study are summarized as follows: First, natural gas development in the Eastern Mediterranean region has significantly increased its prominence within the global natural gas market. Egypt, holding largest natural gas reserve in the region, now surpasses major natural gas importers of Korea, including Malaysia, Oman, and Indonesia. The total natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean region are estimated at 119.1Tcf, 41.1% more than that of Australia, Korea’s largest natural gas importer. It is estimated that there are 286.2Tcf of undiscovered natural gas resources buried along the Eastern Mediterranean coast. This means that only 29.4% of the region’s total natural gas reserves have been found to date. Second, countries in the Eastern Mediterranean have made significant efforts to develop their domestic natural gas resources and to strengthen both domestic and international cooperation. In particular, Egypt, Israel, and Cyprus, major natural gas holders in the region, have been actively pursuing exploration and development and related infrastructure projects to expand their natural gas production and export capacity. Efforts are being made to promote natural gas-related industries such as petrochemicals and hydrogen. In 2019, a regional consultative body for natural gas development, the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, was launched. Since then, through a number of meetings, countries in the region have gathered to discuss specific plans and implement methods for natural gas development. There is also cooperation between Egypt and Israel in the natural gas supply chain, using Egypt’s natural gas liquefaction facilities.(the rest omitted)
    Keywords: 천연가스(Natural Gas); 에너지 안보(Energy Security); 동지중해(Eastern Mediterranean Region); 이집트(Egypt); 이스라엘(Israel); 사이프러스(Cyprus);
    Date: 2023–10–20

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