nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2023‒10‒23
fifteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi, Université d’Ottawa

  1. What contribution of North-South migration to the Moroccan Economy? By Boutaina Ismaili Idrissi
  2. Can refugees improve native children’s health?: Evidence from Turkey By Cansu Oymak; Jean-François Maystadt
  3. Fostering Decent Jobs in MENA Countries: Segmented Employment, Occupational Mobility and Formalising Informality By Philippe Adair; Shireen AlAzzawi; Vladimir Hlasny
  4. Financial Inclusion and Barriers to Funding Micro-Entrepreneurs in MENA Countries Prior and During the COVID-19 Pandemic By Imène Berguiga; Philippe Adair
  6. Social entrepreneurship as an inclusion strategy Case study: The third phase of National Initiative for Human Development in Morocco By Fathallah Brahim
  7. FDI, Information and Communication Technology, and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Morocco By Anass Arbia; Khalid Sobhi; Mohamedou Karim; Mohammed Eddaou
  8. Psychometric Properties And Validation Of The Persian Version Of The Status-Based Identity Uncertainty Scale In Iran By Elaheh Khezri; Alexander Tatarko
  9. An Extended Quarterly Projection Model for the Central Bank of Jordan By Adel Al-Sharkas; Nedal Al-Azzam; Sarah AlTalafha; Rasha Abu Shawish; Ahmad Shalein; Auday Rawwaqah; Amany Al-Rawashdeh; Daniel Baksa; Mr. Philippe D Karam; Mr. Jan Vlcek
  10. Informality, Labor Market Dynamics, and Business Cycles in North Africa By Olivier Bizimana; Shant Arzoumanian
  11. Analyse de la gestion des stocks de produits périssables en utilisant le modèle EOQ en Tunisie By Rahal, Imen
  12. Imalat Sanayi Sektorlerinin Mali Yapisi: 2009-2021 Donemine Iliskin Gozlemler By Selcuk Gul; Abdullah Kazdal
  13. Ihracat Oncu Gostergesi Olarak IYA Sorularinin Analizi By Ece Oral Cevirmez; Okan Eren
  14. Bankalarin Kredi Portfoyu ve Kredi Riski Modellerindeki Ayrismanin Aktif Kalitesine Etkisi By Tuba Pelin Sumer; Selay Sahan
  15. Enerji Ithalat Fiyatlarinin Son Donem Seyri ve Belirleyicileri By Mert Gokcu

  1. By: Boutaina Ismaili Idrissi (FSJES Agdal, Université Mohammed V Rabat, Maroc - Laboratoire d’économie appliquée en sciences économiques (LEA))
    Abstract: Déclaration de divulgation : Les auteurs n'ont pas connaissance de quelconque financement qui pourrait affecter l'objectivité de cette étude. Conflit d'intérêts : Les auteurs ne signalent aucun conflit d'intérêts.
    Keywords: Faculté des Sciences juridiques économiques et sociales Agdal Avenue des Nations-Unies B.P. 721 Agdal -Rabat -MAROC Entrepreneurship Foreign direct investment Morocco North-South migration foreign employees JEL Classification: J61 Paper type: Theoretical Research, Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales Agdal Avenue des Nations-Unies, B.P. 721 Agdal -Rabat -MAROC Entrepreneurship, Foreign direct investment, Morocco, North-South migration, foreign employees JEL Classification: J61 Paper type: Theoretical Research
    Date: 2023–08–31
  2. By: Cansu Oymak (Lancaster University, Economics Department, United Kingdom); Jean-François Maystadt (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
    Abstract: Following the most dramatic migration episode of the 21st century, Turkey hosted the largest number of Syrian refugees in the world. This paper assesses the impact of the arrival of Syrian refugees on the Turkish children’s health, with a focus on height – a standard nutritional outcome. Accounting for the endogenous choice of immigrant location, our results show that Turkish children residing in provinces with a large share of refugees exhibit a significant improvement in their height as compared to those living in provinces with less refugees. Against other potential channels, a refugee-induced increase in maternal unemployment and the associated increase in maternal care seem to explain the observed positive effect on children’s health.
    Keywords: refugees, child health, anthropometric measures, labor market outcomes
    JEL: O15 I15
    Date: 2023–09–12
  3. By: Philippe Adair; Shireen AlAzzawi; Vladimir Hlasny
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Imène Berguiga; Philippe Adair
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Jamila Ez-Zaouine (Université Ibn Zohr [Agadir]); Abdelkbir Elouidani (Université Ibn Zohr [Agadir]); Karim Hajar (Université Ibn Zohr [Agadir])
    Abstract: SMEs engage more in the way of business certification. However, few studies have been conducted on the possible implications of the certification process quality management system for SMEs in general and its organizational architecture in particular. The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of a management model of the structure of SMEs, according to a qualitative approach; so, it is to study the certification process in its relationship with organizational change compared with the Mckinsey 7 S Model. In this article, we will present the results of empirical research that has been conducted on the process of quality certification (ISO 9000) in 30 SMEs in Rabat-Salé-Kénitra region certified by the Moroccan Standards Institute (IMANOR). The study leads to highlight a variety of perceptions of the quality approach that coexist in these companies, as well as varying degrees of involvement of members of the organization. It also shows that despite the process of adapting the certification process context, it sometimes involves an unfavorable change in these companies.
    Abstract: Les PME s'engagent davantage dans la voie de la certification des entreprises. Cependant, peu d'études ont été menées sur les implications possibles du système de management de la qualité du processus de certification pour les PME en général et son architecture organisationnelle en particulier. L'objectif de cette recherche est d'analyser l'impact d'un modèle de gestion de la structure des PME, selon une approche qualitative ; il s'agit donc d'étudier le processus de certification dans sa relation avec le changement organisationnel par rapport au modèle 7S de Mckinsey. Dans cet article, nous présenterons les résultats de recherches empiriques qui ont été menées sur le processus de certification qualité (ISO 9000) dans 30 PME de la région de Rabat-Salé-Kénitra certifiées par l'Institut marocain de normalisation (IMANOR). L'étude conduit à mettre en évidence une variété de perceptions de la démarche qualité qui coexistent dans ces entreprises, ainsi que divers degrés d'implication des membres de l'organisation. Il montre également que malgré le processus d'adaptation du contexte du processus de certification, il implique parfois un changement défavorable dans ces entreprises.
    Keywords: Quality certification, Organizational change, Mckinsey 7S model Résumé, Certification de qualité, changement organisationnel, modèle 7S de Mckinsey
    Date: 2022–03
  6. By: Fathallah Brahim (Hassan II University of Casablanca)
    Abstract: The advent of the Covid-19 pandemic has prompted the Moroccan public authorities to set up public programs to promote employment and entrepreneurship such as "Intelaka", "Awrach", "Forsa" and Program III of the third phase of the "National Initiative for Human Development"(INDH). The objective of this article is to analyze the different stages of implementation of the Program III of the third phase of the INDH. This analysis will allow us to assess the results obtained with the human, financial and technical resources deployed and to what extent this initiative will help to thwart the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
    Keywords: Public policies social entrepreneurship social economy Initiative National Initiative for Human Development economic inclusion social inclusion INDH: National Initiative for Human Development IGAs: Income-Generating activities ESS: Social and Solidarity Economy HCP: High Commission for Planning, Public policies, social entrepreneurship, social economy, Initiative National Initiative for Human Development, economic inclusion, social inclusion INDH: National Initiative for Human Development IGAs: Income-Generating activities ESS: Social and Solidarity Economy HCP: High Commission for Planning
    Date: 2023–04–30
  7. By: Anass Arbia (Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, Salé, Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco.); Khalid Sobhi (Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, Salé, Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco.); Mohamedou Karim (Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, Salé, Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco.); Mohammed Eddaou (UMP - Professor, Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, University Mohammed First, Oujda, Morocco.)
    Abstract: Abstract The document analyzes the relationship between FDI (Foreign Direct Investment), ICT (Information and Communication Technology), and economic growth in Morocco for the period from 1990 to 2021 using the ARDL model. Three models have been evaluated, with economic growth, FDI, and ICT as dependent variables in each respective model. In model (1), the results indicate that in the short term, economic growth is not positively related to FDI and ICT. However, in the long term, FDI positively contributes to economic growth, while ICT negatively affects it. A controlled inflation rate has a positive short-term effect, and the level of education shows a positive relationship in both the short and long term. In Model (2), economic growth and government spending have a significant short-term effect on FDI, while ICT has no effect. In the long term, economic performance and inflation remain important for FDI. Model (3) confirms a significant short-term relationship between FDI and ICT, with a negative impact. However, ICT is positively influenced by the inflation rate and the level of education. In the long term, FDI, demographic changes, and education have favorable and significant effects, while economic growth has a negative impact. Regarding the Granger causality test by Toda-Yamamoto, the cause-and-effect relationship between ICT and economic growth is strong and unidirectional, while economic growth influences the level of ICT development. On the other hand, the causality between FDI and ICT concerning economic growth is indirect and depends on factors such as population growth, education level, and inflation rate. JEL classification numbers: C190, F21, F30, L96, O55. Keywords: Economic growth, FDI, Information and Communication technology, ARDL model, Toda-Yamamoto causality.
    Keywords: JEL classification numbers: C190 F21 F30 L96 O55 Economic growth FDI Information and Communication technology ARDL model Toda-Yamamoto causality, JEL classification numbers: C190, F21, F30, L96, O55 Economic growth, FDI, Information and Communication technology, ARDL model, Toda-Yamamoto causality
    Date: 2023–09–14
  8. By: Elaheh Khezri (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alexander Tatarko (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Status-based identity uncertainty (SBIU) is the extent of instability in an individual’s understanding of their socioeconomic status (SES). This study aimed to adapt and validate the SBIU scale within the general Iranian population. We translated this scale into Persian and collected data from 162 Iranian adults. Corrected item-total correlations and Cronbach’s alpha coefficient (.85) supported the reliability of this instrument. Factor analysis yielded a two-factor model consisting of status doubt and status instability. Convergent validity was confirmed by establishing the unique association of SBIU with SES and income. The distinct factor loading of SBIU from self-concept clarity also provided support for its discriminant validity. Overall, this study establishes the reliability and validity of the SBIU scale for measuring status uncertainty in Iran
    Keywords: Status-based identity uncertainty, socioeconomic status, self-concept clarity, Iran
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Adel Al-Sharkas; Nedal Al-Azzam; Sarah AlTalafha; Rasha Abu Shawish; Ahmad Shalein; Auday Rawwaqah; Amany Al-Rawashdeh; Daniel Baksa; Mr. Philippe D Karam; Mr. Jan Vlcek
    Abstract: The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has developed a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to serve as a reliable analytical framework for macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and decision-making under a pegged exchange rate regime. At the heart of the FPAS is the CBJ’s extended Jordan Analysis Model (JAM2.0). The model captures the monetary transmission mechanism and provides a consistent monetary policy framework that uses the exchange rate as an effective nominal anchor. This paper outlines the structure and properties of JAM2.0 and emphasizes the enhanced interplay and tradeoffs among monetary, fiscal, and foreign exchange management policies. Simulation and forecasting exercises demonstrate JAM2.0’s ability to match key stylized facts of the Jordanian economy, produce accurate forecasts of important macroeconomic variables, and explain the critical relationships among policies.
    Date: 2023–08–25
  10. By: Olivier Bizimana; Shant Arzoumanian
    Abstract: Employment informality is widespread across North Africa. This paper aims to shed light on the role played by the informal sector in labor market adjustments over the business cycle. It finds that the response of labor markets to output fluctuations is more muted in countries with higher informality levels, like the North African economies. The analysis also confirms that informal employment is countercyclical and acts as a buffer during economic downturns in countries with relatively higher informality. However, contrary to what took place in past recessions, informal employment contracted sharply during the 2020 pandemic recession in high informality economies, suggesting that it did not play its traditional countercyclical role. By contrast, employment informality tends to fall modestly or increase during economic upturns, including the post-pandemic recovery. This finding presages the persistence of a large informal sector in the post-covid era in medium- and high-informality countries.
    Keywords: Informality; Labor Markets; Business cycles; Okun’s Law
    Date: 2023–09–08
  11. By: Rahal, Imen
    Abstract: La gestion des stocks des produits laitiers est un défi en raison de sa nature périssable. Le succès de nombreuses entreprises est lié à leur capacité à fournir des biens et des services au bon moment et au bon endroit. Différentes organisations adoptent différentes méthodes de gestion des stocks pour éviter les ruptures de stock et les surstocks. Cet article analyse les paramètres possibles de la littérature existante, la concentration, la description des caractéristiques et du modèle de contrôle des stocks EOQ qui ont été développés et qui peuvent résoudre le problème des produits périssables.
    Keywords: produits périssables, gestion des stocks, EOQ
    JEL: C2 C6
    Date: 2023–01–08
  12. By: Selcuk Gul; Abdullah Kazdal
    Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada, 2009-2021 donemi icin imalat sanayi sektorlerinin toplulastirilmis finansal tablolari kullanilarak imalat sanayinin mali yapisina iliskin secilmis performans gostergelerinin gelisimi zaman boyutunda ve sektorler arasinda betimleyici bir yaklasimla incelenmektedir. Bulgular, imalat sanayinde incelenen donemde ortalama olarak kisa vadeli yukumlulukleri karsilama sorunu bulunmadigina, kaldirac oraninin donem boyunca hem kisa hem uzun vadede artarak yuksek seyrettigine ve faaliyet kârliliginin artis egiliminde olduguna isaret etmektedir. Ayrica, sektorel ve olcek bazinda farklilasmalar gostermekle birlikte ortalamada bilanco ici yabanci para (YP) risklilik incelenen donemde sinirli artis kaydetmistir. ote yandan, son donemde artis egiliminde olan ihracat odakliligin dis soklara hassasiyeti belli olcude azalttigi degerlendirilmektedir. Hem YP yukumluluklerin mevcut seviyesi hem de borclulugun vadesindeki gelismeler Turk lirasi (TL) cinsinden uzun vadeli finansmanin onemine isaret etmektedir. Bu cercevede, liralasma odakli politikalarin firma bilancolarinda dolarizasyonu azaltarak YP borcluluk kaynakli riskleri sinirlamaya destek olacagi degerlendirilmektedir. ozellikle kaldirac oranlarindaki artis ile soz konusu borclulugun surdurulebildigi, finansman giderleri ve YP cinsinden riskliligin seyri goz onunde bulunduruldugunda, imalat sanayi firmalarinin oz kaynak finansmani ve TL cinsinden borclanmalarini tesvik eden politikalar on plana cikmaktadir. [EN] In this study, selected performance indicators regarding financial structure of the manufacturing industry is examined over time and across sectors with a descriptive approach by using the aggregated financial statements over the 2009-2021 period. Findings indicate that the manufacturing industry has the capability to meet its short-term liabilities, on average, over the period under consideration, the leverage ratio has increased and remained high both in the short and long term throughout the period, and the operating profitability has followed an upward trend. Besides, although it shows variations on a sectoral and size basis, on-balance sheet foreign currency risk, on average, has slightly increased over the period under review. Yet, it is considered that the export-orientation, which has been on an upward trend, has reduced the sensitivity to external shocks to some extent. Both the current level of FX liabilities and the developments in the maturity of indebtedness highlight the importance of long-term financing in Turkish lira. in this context, it is evaluated that liraization-oriented policies will help limit the risks arising from FX indebtedness by reducing dollarization in firm's balance sheets. Considering, especially, the increase in the leverage ratios, its sustainability, and the course of financing costs and foreign currency risks, policies that encourage equity financing and borrowing in the Turkish lira of the manufacturing companies stand out
    Date: 2023
  13. By: Ece Oral Cevirmez; Okan Eren
    Abstract: [TR] Milli gelir buyumesinin onemli surukleyicilerinden olan ihracatin zamanli tahmini politika yapicilar icin kritik onem tasimaktadir. Bu calismada, Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) tarafindan yurutulmekte olan Ýktisadi Yonelim Anketi’nde (ÝYA) yer alan ihracat egilimi ve beklentilerine iliskin sorularin reel ihracat buyumesi ile iliskisi irdelenmistir. Bulgular, altin haric ihracat miktar endeksinin ceyreklik buyumesinin reel efektif doviz kuru ve Ýhracat Agirlikli Kuresel Buyume (IAKB) endeksi tarafindan aciklandigi temel modele anket verisi eklendiginde aciklanma yuzdesinin belirgin arttigina isaret etmektedir. Bu cercevede, anketten elde edilen zamanli verilerin, reel ihracat tahmin modellerini iyilestirerek politika yapim surecine katki saglayacagi degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] Timely estimation of exports, which is one of the important drivers of national income growth, is of critical importance for policy makers. This study analyzes the relationship between questions regarding the export tendency and expectations in the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye’s (CBRT) Business Tendency Survey (BTS) and real export growth. The findings point out that when the survey data is integrated into the basic model, in which the quarterly growth of the export quantity index excluding gold is explained by the real effective exchange rate and the Export Weighted Global Growth index (EWGG), the explanatory power of the model increases noticeably. in this context, it is considered that the timely data obtained from the survey will contribute to the policy making process by improving the real export forecasting models.
    Date: 2023
  14. By: Tuba Pelin Sumer; Selay Sahan
    Abstract: [TR] 2018 yili sonrasinda kamu bankalarinin tahsili gecikmis alacak (TGA) ve yakin izlemedeki kredi oranlari sektordeki diger bankalara kiyasla olumlu ayrismaya baslamis ve bu ayrismanin nedenleri onemli tartisma konularindan biri haline gelmistir. Bu calismada, firma ve banka bazli mikro veri setleri kullanilarak, bahse konu ayrismanin nedenleri analiz edilmektedir. calismada ozetle, bankalarin TGA oranlarinin ayrismasinda bankalarin farkli nitelikte kredi portfoylerine sahip olmasinin, yakin izlemedeki kredi oranlarinin ayrismasinda ise bankalarin TFRS-9 standartlari kapsaminda kullandiklari model farkliliklarinin etkili oldugu gosterilmektedir. Ilk olarak, ticari kredilere yonelik TGA analizlerinde, kamu ve diger olmak uzere her iki banka grubunca da kredi kullandirilan (ortak) firmalarin TGA performanslarinin benzer oldugu, TGA oranlarindaki ayrismanin ise ortak portfoyde olmayan firmalardan kaynaklandigi bulgulanmaktadir. Sadece kamu bankalarinin kredi kullandirdiklari firmalarin ortalamada net kâr marji ve finansman gideri karsilama oraninin yalnizca diger bankalarin kredi kullandirdiklari firmalara kiyasla daha yuksek olmasinin kamu bankalarinin firma TGA oranlarinin daha dusuk olmasinda etkili olabilecegi degerlendirilmektedir. Ikinci olarak, bireysel kredilere yonelik TGA analizlerinde, soz konusu ayrismada, kamu bankalarinin portfoylerinde teminatli yapida olan ve kredi geri odeme performansi diger kredilerden olumlu ayrisan konut kredilerinin, diger bankalarin portfoylerinde ise teminatsiz yapida olan ihtiyac kredisi ve kredi karti payinin daha yuksek olmasinin etkili olabilecegi gosterilmektedir. Son olarak yakin izlemedeki kredi oranlarina yonelik analizlerde, 2018 yilinda TFRS9 standardinin kullanilmaya baslamasi ile birlikte bankalarin yakin izleme oranlarinin ayristigi izlenmektedir. Kamu bankalari ile diger bankalarin gecikme nedeniyle yakin izlemeye alinan kredi oranlari benzerken, gecikmesi olmayan kredileri diger bankalarin kamu bankalarina kiyasla daha fazla yakin izlemede siniflandirdigi ve yakin izleme oranlarindaki ayrismanin bankalarin kullandigi model farkliligindan kaynaklandigi degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] After 2018, non-performing loans (NPL) and Stage 2 loan ratios of public banks diverged positively compared to other banks in the sector, and the reasons for this divergence became one of the important issues discussed. in this study, the factors affecting this divergence are examined usingfirm and bank-based micro data sets. in summary, the study shows that while differences in loanportfolios of banks are effective in the divergence of NPL ratios, iFRS-9 model differences causeStage 2 loan ratios to diverge. First, on the NPL ratio analysis of commercial credit side, it is foundthat the NPL performances of the (joint) firms, which have credits from both bank groups, the publicand the other, are similar, and the divergence in NPL ratios is due to firms that are not in the jointportfolio. It is considered that the fact that the average net profit margins and financing expensecoverage ratio of the companies that only public banks provide loans are higher than the companiesthat only other banks provide loans can be effective in low commercial NPL ratio of public banks.Secondly, it is shown that the higher share of housing loans in public banks portfolios, which have asecured structure and whose loan repayment performance differs positively from other loans, andthe higher share of general-purpose loans and credit cards in the portfolios of other banks, whichare unsecured, may be effective in the NPL ratio differentiation on the retail loan side. Finally, it isshown that Stage 2 loan ratios started to diverge with the introduction of the IFRS-9 standard in2018. Indeed, while the ratio of Stage 2 loans with delay is similar in both bank groups, it is foundthat other banks classify the loans without delay in Stage 2 more compared to public banks, and thedivergence in Stage 2 loan ratios of these bank groups is due to the IFRS-9 model difference.
    Date: 2023
  15. By: Mert Gokcu
    Abstract: [TR] Kuresel enerji fiyatlarinin seyri son donemde Turkiye'de manset cari aciktaki artisi belirleyen en onemli etkenlerden biri olmustur. Bu calismada, enerji piyasasinin gorunumu fiyat hareketleri ile arz ve depolama kosullari acisindan analiz edilmekte ve COViD-19 pandemisinden bu yana Turkiye'deki enerji ithalat fiyatlari ile kuresel enerji emtia fiyatlari arasindaki iliski incelenmektedir. Veriler, 2022 yilinda ithalat hacminde sinirli oranda artis gerceklesmis olmasina ragmen cari islemler dengesinin onemli olcude bozulmus olmasinin kuresel enerji fiyatlarindaki yukselisten kaynaklandigina isaret etmektedir. Sonuclarimiz, petrol ithalat fiyatlarinin seyrinin tarihsel olarak spot Brent petrol fiyatlari ile 1’e yakin korelasyona sahip oldugunu gostermektedir. Dogal gaz ithalat fiyatlarinin ise spot fiyatlara duyarliligi 2021 yilinin son ceyreginden itibaren onemli olcude artmistir. Son donemde yasanan soklar, enerji arzinin cesitlendirilmesinin onemini ortaya koyarken, Turkiye gerek farkli tedarikci ulkeler ile yaptigi uzun vadeli anlasmalar gerekse Karadeniz’de yerel dogal gaz kaynaklarinin kesfi nedeniyle dogal gaz arzi acisindan olumlu bir gorunum sunmaktadir. [EN] Global energy prices have been one of the most prominent factors driving the recent increase in the headline current account deficit in Turkiye. Against this background, this study analyses the outlook for the energy market in terms of price movements, supply, and storage conditions and examines the relationship between energy import prices in Turkiye and global energy commodity prices since the COViD-19 pandemic. The data indicate that the surge in global energy prices in 2022 caused the current account balance to deteriorate significantly, despite the subdued increase in the volume of imports. Our results show that the course of the oil import prices has historically been fairly similar to spot Brent oil prices, with a nearly perfect correlation. On the natural gas front, the sensitivity of natural gas import prices to spot prices has increased considerably since the last quarter of 2021. While recent shocks highlight the importance of the diversification of energy supply, Turkiye stands in a favorable position in terms of natural gas supply with respect to not only its long-term agreements with a number of different supplier countries but also the discovery of local resources in the Black Sea.
    Date: 2023

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