nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2023‒08‒28
thirteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi, Université d’Ottawa

  1. Intergenerational Power Shift and the Rise of Non-arranged Marriages among Refugees By Foster, Andrew; Gökçe, Merve Betül; Kirdar, Murat G.
  2. Modeling and Projecting Regional Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia By Jeyhun Mikayilov; Abdulelah Darandary
  3. Fuel Efficiency in Saudi Arabia’s Aviation Sector: Progress and Future Implications By Andres Felipe Guzman; Juan Nicolas Guzman; Abdulrahman Alwosheel
  4. Commercial Electricity Demand Modeling: Do Regional Differences Matter? By Jeyhun Mikayilov; Abdulelah Darandary
  5. Macroeconomic, Energy and Emission Effects of Solar PV Deployment at Utility and Distributed Scales in Saudi Arabia By Amro Elshurafa; Fakhri Hasanov; Lester C. Hunt
  6. The Black Sea as Mare clausum: Turkey's special role in the regional security architecture By Isachenko, Daria; Swistek, Göran
  7. Towards an innovative territorial governance in the digital age and its role in the implementation of the fourth axis of the New Development Model By Farah Hilali; Hicham Elyousfi
  8. Transformation of Sudan's agrifood system structure and drivers By Diao, Xinshen; Pauw, Karl; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James; Ellis, Mia
  9. The application of innovation adoption in the Moroccan banking context: literature review and design of a research model By Ghita Hidare
  10. Anti-austerity riots in late developing states: evidence from the 1977 Egyptian Bread Intifada By Ketchley, Neil; Eibl, Ferdinand; Gunning, Jeroen
  11. Trends of national and sub-national burden attributed to kidney dysfunction risk factor in Iran: 1990-2019 By Nejadghaderi, Seyed Aria; Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar; Keykhaei, Mohammad; Shobeiri, Parnian; Rezaei, Negar; Rezaei, Nazila; Naghavi, Mohsen; Larijani, Bagher; Farzadfar, Farshad; GBD 2019 Iran Kidney Dysfunction Collaborators
  12. The causal effect of family physician program on the prevalence, screening, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension and diabetes mellitus in an Eastern Mediterranean Region: a causal difference-in-differences analysis By Mohammadi, Neda; Alizadeh, Ahad; Moghaddam, Sahar Saeedi; Ghasemi, Erfan; Ahmadi, Naser; Yaseri, Mehdi; Rezaei, Negar; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali
  13. Analyse de la gestion des stocks de produits périssables en utilisant le modèle EOQ en Tunisie Analysis of the management of stocks of perishable products using the EOQ model in Tunisia By Rahal, Imen

  1. By: Foster, Andrew (Brown University); Gökçe, Merve Betül (Bogazici University); Kirdar, Murat G. (Bogazici University)
    Abstract: The experience of war and refugee status can alter intra-family dynamics and therefore have implications for family formation, including marriage. This study investigates marriage patterns among Syrian refugees in Turkey. Utilizing the nationally representative 2018 Turkey Demographic Health Survey (TDHS), we conduct a duration analysis of marriage outcomes among Syrian refugees in Turkey—tracking women throughout their residence in prewar Syria, postwar Syria, and Turkey. We find that early marriage is more prominent among refugees who were unmarried at the time of migration than those married before migration; the mean marriage age drops from 19.6 in prewar Syria to 19.1 in postwar Syria and 18.1 in Turkey. Using the TDHS and prewar Syrian surveys, we show that this finding aligns with the observed declines in household income and young women's opportunity cost of marriage. Our duration analysis also reveals a notable shift from traditional arranged marriages to more modern forms among refugees in Turkey. An intergenerational power shift may drive the shift toward non-arranged marriages. After arrival in Turkey, parental wealth and employment decline. In contrast, Syrian youth have higher age-adjusted employment rates than in prewar Syria. Moreover, for demographic groups with stronger intergenerational power shifts, non-arranged marriages increase more.
    Keywords: Syrian refugees, forced migration, arranged marriage, generational power transitions, Turkey
    JEL: J12 J15
    Date: 2023–07
  2. By: Jeyhun Mikayilov; Abdulelah Darandary (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: This paper utilizes a structural time series approach to model Saudi Arabia’s regional electricity demand, capturing undetected forces of variability in the data-generating process that include improvements in technology, energy-saving behavior, and other underlying trends that are excluded under conventional estimation methods. National models of aggregate electricity consumption might not be representative, as electricity prices are administered regionally and Saudi Arabia’s regions have unique social and economic characteristics. We find evidence that the regions have unique responses to prices and income levels with regard to electricity demand. Additionally, we use our estimated model to project the regional baseline demand for electricity for Saudi Arabia and create a scenario to demonstrate how a price increase would impact these regions differently. This information is valuable for policymakers in Saudi Arabia, as the fuel mix to generate electricity differs between regions. Our baseline electricity demand projections indicate that under the assumptions of moderate economic growth and no price changes, total electricity demand in Saudi Arabia will reach 366 TWh by 2030.
    Date: 2023–07–05
  3. By: Andres Felipe Guzman; Juan Nicolas Guzman; Abdulrahman Alwosheel (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Despite the fast global expansion of the aviation industry, due to its sustainability issues, the industry’s concerns about energy efficiency and emissions are still very important. Studying the changing energy consumption patterns in Saudi Arabia is crucial, as the country is expected to see significant changes in the coming years with new infrastructure, an increase in tourism, and new airlines.
    Keywords: Aviation Oil Consumption, Aviation Oil Demand, Crude Oil, Diesel
    Date: 2023–07–25
  4. By: Jeyhun Mikayilov; Abdulelah Darandary (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: One of the key benefits of understanding regional electricity consumption and its response to policy changes is enhancing the decision-making process. In Saudi Arabia, energy policies are set at the national level, and assessing their impacts at the regional level provides valuable insights for assessing the impact of previous and future policies. The regions of Saudi Arabia have unique social and economic characteristics (Mikayilov et al. 2020b) and are expected to react differently to changing policies.
    Date: 2023–06–25
  5. By: Amro Elshurafa; Fakhri Hasanov; Lester C. Hunt (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: This study assesses the macroeconomic, energy and emissions impacts of solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the period 2021–2030. This is accomplished by linking an energy and environmental sector augmented macroeconometric model with a power model and a distributed generation model. Furthermore, this study distinguishes between the macroeconomic, energy and emissions impacts of PV deployment at the utility and distributed generation scales. To the best of our knowledge, these two aspects make this work novel. We analyze three scenarios: (i) fully government-funded utility-scale PV deployment, (ii) half-government-funded utility-scale PV deployment and (iii) household-funded distributed-generation-scale PV deployment, with some government support alongside a business-as-usual (BaU) scenario..
    Keywords: Agent based modeling, Analytics, Applied resesarch, Autometrics
    Date: 2023–06–22
  6. By: Isachenko, Daria; Swistek, Göran
    Abstract: The Black Sea is a region of tension. It is the arena of the Russia-NATO confrontation while at the same time serving as a projection area for Russian and Turkish visions of regional order. Turkey's special role in the region stems primarily from the implementation of the Montreux Convention, which for much of the last century has meant a reduction in unilateral spheres of influence and dominance. The non-riparian states are supposed to be excluded. For Turkey, the Montreux Convention is a lever of power. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has enabled it to use this lever even more in the service of its own interests. NATO's room for manoeuvre, on the other hand, has been reduced in the current situation. Turkey is an essential element in the Alliance's collective defence. However, since the outbreak of the Russian war against Ukraine, NATO is no longer present in the Black Sea. This means that an important pillar of deterrence and defence is missing. In this respect, there is a dualism regarding the conceptions of order in the Black Sea region at two different levels: the regional and the global.
    Keywords: Black Sea, Black Sea Region, Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, Bosporus, Dardanelles, Sea of Marmara, Sea of Azov, Montreux Convention, Active Endeavour, Black Sea Harmony, BlackSeaFor, Tailored Forward Presence, deterrence and dialogue
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Farah Hilali (Université Mohammed V de Rabat. Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales, Souissi); Hicham Elyousfi (Université Mohammed V de Rabat. Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales, Souissi)
    Abstract: The Special Commission on the Development Model (SCDM) officially revealed its report in May 2021, outlining both the Kingdom's socio-economic situation, and the major strategic inflections and concepts to be adopted to rebuild a new Morocco by the year 2035. With a view to realizing the essential aspirations of the New Development Model (NDM), the SCDM has identified four transformation priority area for building a flourishing and equitable nation. Through its fourth transformation priority area, the NDM has made the territory the foundation on which public policies are deployed. Decidedly, to ensure to ensure the implementation of the NDM, the SCDM emphasized the need to modernize the territorial governance model, and called for the promotion of the principles of digital inclusion. This article aims to explore how, in this era marked by a profound digital transition, we could use innovative territorial governance in order to achieve the recommendations of the fourth transformation priority area of the NDM. To this end, we have adopted a hypothetico-deductive approach based on bibliographical references. Thanks to this approach, we were able to decipher how the combination of the two concepts of territorial governance and digital technology enables the establishment of innovative territorial governance. The conclusions drawn from our analysis revealed the key role by the deployment of this combination, which is essential for implementing the objectives of the NDM.
    Abstract: La Commission Spéciale sur le Modèle de Développement (CSMD) a révélé officiellement son rapport en mai 2021, dressant d'une part la situation socio-économique du Royaume, et d'autre part exposant les grandes inflexions stratégiques et les concepts à adopter pour reconstruire un Maroc nouveau à l'horizon de l'année 2035. Dans le but de réaliser les aspirations essentielles du Nouveau Modèle de Développement (NMD), la CSMD a identifié quatre « axes de transformation » déterminants pour bâtir une nation florissante et équitable. A travers son quatrième axe de transformation, le NMD a fait du territoire le socle où se déploient les politiques publiques. Décidément, pour assurer sa mise en œuvre, la CSMD a mis le point sur la nécessité de moderniser le modèle de la gouvernance des territoires, et elle a sollicité la promotion des principes de l'inclusion numérique. Cet article vise à explorer, comment dans cette ère marquée par une transition numérique profonde, on pourrait avoir recours à une gouvernance territoriale innovante afin de réussir les recommandations du quatrième axe de transformation du NMD. Pour ce, nous avons adopté une approche hypothético-déductive en nous appuyant sur des références bibliographiques. Grâce à cette approche, nous avons été en mesure de décortiquer de quelle manière la combinaison entre les deux concepts celui de la gouvernance territoriale et celui du numérique, permet l'instauration d'une gouvernance territoriale innovante. Les conclusions tirées de notre analyse ont révélé le rôle primordial de la mise en œuvre de ladite combinaison qui s'avère indispensable pour l'implémentation des objectifs du NMD.
    Keywords: Governance, territorial governance, digital, new development model., Gouvernance, gouvernance territoriale, numérique, nouveau modèle de développement.
    Date: 2023–06–29
  8. By: Diao, Xinshen; Pauw, Karl; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James; Ellis, Mia
    Abstract: Since the secession of South Sudan in 2011, the Sudanese economy has faced an unprecedented economic downturn caused by the loss of around 75 percent of oil revenue, civil strife, and political instability (Alhelo, Siddig, and Kirui 2023), and more recently, by the impacts of the global COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war (Abay et al. 2023). The political conflict between the civilians and military entities after the fall of the Inghaz regime and the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are driving further deterioration of the economy (Abushama et al. 2023).
    Keywords: REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, agrifood systems, value chains, markets, agriculture, labour productivity, off-farm employment, poverty, diet quality, jobs, development, gross national product, cereals, cotton, fruits, vegetables, gross domestic product (GDP),
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Ghita Hidare (Université Mohammed 5 RABAT)
    Abstract: Technological change had a major impact on all sectors of activity, including banking, which is considered a pioneer in the adoption of new technologies. Over the past decade, the banking sector has always been at the forefront of technological development.Today, the digitalization of banking services is booming. Moroccan banks are increasingly focusing on technological solutions to deliver a better customer experience to banking customers. Mobile payment, being one of the most recent tools, remains, if not unrecognizable, rarely used, despite the many advantages it offers in terms of convenience, speed and security. The aim of our paper is to determine the factors that can influence this fact, through a presentation of the state of the art, in particular the concept of innovation, being a continuous process that aims to introduce new ideas, technologies, products or services, by relating the different theories and models of its adoption. Our main motivation lies in understanding the banking consumer's behavior towards mobile payment, as much as the modern solution proposed by Moroccan banks. Through this article, and by going through a set of theoretical models of innovation adoption, mobile payment in our case, we will deduce a conceptual model including factors that may possibly influence the use or intention to use the mobile payment tool by banking consumers and thus determine their implications. In future work, the hypotheses deduced will be tested using the structural equation method.
    Abstract: L'évolution technologique a eu un impact majeur sur les différents secteurs d'activité, notamment le secteur bancaire considéré comme pionnier en matière d'adoption des nouvelles technologies. Depuis une décennie, le domaine bancaire a toujours été en avance en matière de développement technologique. De nos jours, la digitalisation des services bancaires est en plein essor. Les banques marocaines se focalisent de plus en plus sur les solutions technologiques pour offrir une meilleure expérience client aux consommateurs bancaires. Le paiement mobile, étant un des outils les plus récents, demeure si ce n'est méconnaissable, peu utilisé, malgré les nombreux avantages qu'il propose en termes de praticité, rapidité et sécurité. L'objectif de notre papier est de déterminer les facteurs pouvant influencer ce fait, à travers une présentation d'un état de l'art, notamment du concept de l'innovation, étant un processus continu qui vise à introduire de nouvelles idées, technologies, produits ou services, en relatant les différentes théories et les différents modèles de son adoption. Notre motivation principale réside dans la compréhension du comportement du consommateur bancaire face au paiement mobile, autant que solution moderne proposée par les banques marocaines. À travers ce présent article, et en passant par un ensemble de modèles théoriques de l'adoption de l'innovation, dans notre cas, le paiement mobile, nous déduirons un modèle conceptuel comportant les facteurs pouvant éventuellement influencer l'utilisation ou l'intention d'utiliser l'outil du paiement mobile par les consommateurs bancaires et ainsi de déterminer leurs implications. Dans un futur travail, les hypothèses déduites seront testées à travers l'utilisation de la méthode des équations structurelles.
    Keywords: Innovation, theories, adoption, bank, innovation, théories, banque
    Date: 2023–06–23
  10. By: Ketchley, Neil; Eibl, Ferdinand; Gunning, Jeroen
    Abstract: In late developing states, labor markets are often segmented as a result of import substitution and political coalitions centered on the formally employed. Building on insider-outsider and moral economy frameworks from political economy, we theorize that in such contexts labor market insiders develop strong expectations about welfare provision and public transfers that make them more likely to riot against proposed austerity measures. We test our argument with the case of Egypt during the 1977 Bread Intifada, when the announcement of subsidy cuts sparked rioting across the country. To conduct our analysis, we match an original event catalog compiled from Arabic-language sources with disaggregated employment data. Spatial models, rich micro-level data, and the sudden and short-lived nature of the rioting, help us to disentangle the importance of an area’s labor force from its location and wider socioeconomic context. As we show, despite the diffuse impact of the subsidy cuts, rioting was especially concentrated in areas with labor market insiders – and this is after accounting for a range of plausible alternative explanations. The results suggest that moral economies arising from labor market segmentation can powerfully structure violent opposition to austerity.
    Keywords: austerity; riot; segmented labor markets; moral economy; Egypt; faculty grant
    JEL: R14 J01 N0
    Date: 2023–07–02
  11. By: Nejadghaderi, Seyed Aria; Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar; Keykhaei, Mohammad; Shobeiri, Parnian; Rezaei, Negar; Rezaei, Nazila; Naghavi, Mohsen; Larijani, Bagher; Farzadfar, Farshad; GBD 2019 Iran Kidney Dysfunction Collaborators
    Abstract: Kidney dysfunction is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease. Herein, we aimed to describe the attributable burden of kidney dysfunction at the national and sub-national levels in Iran. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data were extracted on the deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost, and years lived with disability attributed to the risk factor of kidney dysfunction by age and sex at the national and provincial levels from 1990-2019. Also, risk exposure was reported by summary exposure value (SEV) with a range of 0 to 100. The estimated values were based on a comparative risk assessment framework. In 2019, the age-standardized death rate and age-standardized DALYs rate attributable to kidney dysfunction were 58.2 (95% uncertainty interval of 48.8-68.1) and 1127.2 (981.1-1282.7) per 100, 000 population in Iran, respectively. Also, the Sistan and Baluchistan province (1729.3 [1478.3-2006.4]) and the province of Tehran (681.9 [571.4-809.8]) had the greatest and lowest age-standardized DALYs rates, respectively. Nationally, SEVs increased from 22.8 to 26.2. The age-standardized burden attributable to kidney dysfunction had a positive association with age advancement. The attributable age-standardized deaths and DALYs rates in all socio-demographic index regions decreased from 1990-2019. Also, the highest and lowest attributable age-standardized DALYs rates of kidney dysfunction came from ischemic heart disease and peripheral artery disease in 2019, respectively. Although the attributed age-standardized DALYs and death rates decreased from 1990-2019, risk exposure increased and remains a crucial risk factor in Iran. Therefore, policymakers should consider preparing a preventive program that takes into account different levels of prevention of kidney dysfunction.
    Keywords: DALYs, Global Burden of Disease, Iran, kidney dysfunction, mortality risk factor, chronic kidney disease
    Date: 2023
  12. By: Mohammadi, Neda; Alizadeh, Ahad; Moghaddam, Sahar Saeedi; Ghasemi, Erfan; Ahmadi, Naser; Yaseri, Mehdi; Rezaei, Negar; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali
    Abstract: Hypertension (HTN) and diabetes mellitus (DM) as part of non-communicable diseases are among the most common causes of death worldwide, especially in the WHO’s Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). The family physician program (FPP) proposed by WHO is a health strategy to provide primary health care and improve the community’s awareness of non-communicable diseases. Since there was no clear focus on the causal effect of FPP on the prevalence, screening, and awareness of HTN and DM, the primary objective of this study is to determine the causal effect of FPP on these factors in Iran, which is an EMR country. We conducted a repeated cross-sectional design based on two independent surveys of 42, 776 adult participants in 2011 and 2016, of which 2301 individuals were selected from two regions where the family physician program was implemented (FPP) and where it wasn't (non-FPP). We used an Inverse Probability Weighting difference-in-differences and Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation analysis to estimate the average treatment effects on treated (ATT) using R version 4.1.1. The FPP implementation increased the screening (ATT = 36%, 95% CI: (27%, 45%), P -value
    Keywords: Family physician program, Hypertension, Diabetes mellitus, Diference-in-diference, TMLE, Iran
    Date: 2023
  13. By: Rahal, Imen
    Abstract: La gestion des stocks des produits laitiers est un défi en raison de sa nature périssable. Le succès de nombreuses entreprises est lié à leur capacité à fournir des biens et des services au bon moment et au bon endroit. Différentes organisations adoptent différentes méthodes de gestion des stocks pour éviter les ruptures de stock et les surstocks. Cet article analyse les paramètres possibles de la littérature existante, la concentration, la description des caractéristiques et du modèle de contrôle des stocks EOQ qui ont été développés et qui peuvent résoudre le problème des produits périssables.
    Keywords: produits périssables, gestion des stocks, EOQ
    JEL: C2 C6
    Date: 2023–01–08

This nep-ara issue is ©2023 by Paul Makdissi. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.