nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2023‒07‒31
eight papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  2. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) : Progress, Challenges, and Potential Benefits for Morocco By Taoufik Noujoud; Ouadghiri Kaoutar; Jbali Brahim
  3. United Arab Emirates: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  4. The Role of Covid-19 Policy Responses on GVC Participation: The Turkish Experience By Abdullah Altun; Pýnar Tat; Halit Yanikkaya
  5. Armed Conflict, COVID-19 Pandemic, and Food Security: Evidence from Iraq By Krah, Kwabena; Phadera, Lokendra
  6. Lebanon: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lebanon By International Monetary Fund
  7. Sudan’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation By Diao, Xinshen; Pauw, Karl; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James
  8. Inflation, Exchange Rates, Exports Imports and Growth of Economics? The Empirical Studies in Qatar By triyawan, andi; cahyo, eko nur; Djayusman, Royyan Ramdhani

  1. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Selected Issues
    Date: 2023–06–26
  2. By: Taoufik Noujoud (University Hassan II [Casablanca]); Ouadghiri Kaoutar (University Hassan II [Casablanca]); Jbali Brahim (University Hassan II [Casablanca])
    Abstract: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is an initiative aimed at establishing a single market for goods and services across Africa. It was signed in March 2018 and became operational on January 1, 2021. The AfCFTA aims to promote intra-African trade, enhance economic diversification, facilitate industrialization and value addition, promote small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), encourage investment flows, and harmonize trade and economic policies. For Morocco, joining the AfCFTA presents potential benefits. The country has made the socio-economic development of Africa a priority and was among the first countries to sign the agreement. Simulations and studies suggest that Morocco's exports, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing industries, food, and textiles, could benefit from the AfCFTA. The agreement provides opportunities for increased trade, market access, and economic integration with other African countries. It is important to note that the implementation of the AfCFTA is an ongoing process, and its full impact will be realized over time. The collaboration and efforts of member states are crucial in realizing the potential benefits of the agreement and addressing challenges along the way.
    Keywords: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) intra-African trade impacts, The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), intra-African trade, impacts
    Date: 2023–06–07
  3. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Economic growth is strong, driven by non-hydrocarbon activity, timely support measures, and the benefits of earlier reforms. Inflation has risen with global trends, while high oil prices support large surpluses in the fiscal and external balances. Banks are adequately capitalized overall, but nonperforming loans remain elevated, albeit down from recent peaks, and real estate prices have risen sharply in some segments. Long-term vulnerabilities from global decarbonization efforts are being addressed through commitments to climate initiatives and a balanced approach to energy transition.
    Date: 2023–06–26
  4. By: Abdullah Altun (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University); Pýnar Tat (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University); Halit Yanikkaya (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University)
    Abstract: This paper explores the association between a variety of trade and government policy measures of both home and trade partners introduced during the Covid-19 pandemic within the gravity-like framework by using the Turkish bilateral trade statistics at the 6-digit product level from February 2020 to March 2022. The unique monthly 6-digit bilateral product-level trade dataset enables us to observe and utilize heterogeneous effects at the product, sector, and country levels. Our initial eye inspection of raw data reveals that the Covid-19 shock is not only a health crisis, but it also represents simultaneous demand and supply shocks for the globally integrated world economy. Our empirical analysis suggests that lower Turkish GVC participation during this period can be attributed to lower mobilities and the lack of vaccines globally. Our analysis utilizing the different income group of countries and technology group of sectors suggest that Turkish high-tech embedded backward participation with developed countries can be more sensitive to any changes in Covid-19-related policy measures, whereas Turkish forward participation with both developed and developing markets can be more volatile during the pandemic because of the containment measures. Given the product and country-level heterogeneities regarding contingency measures implemented by the governments, policymakers should carefully monitor each sub-sample separately and focus especially on enhancement in information, communication, and transportation infrastructures to mitigate the contagious effect of any external shocks.
    Keywords: Bilateral Product Level GVC Participation, Covid-19, Turkey
    JEL: F10 F14 F42
    Date: 2023–07–17
  5. By: Krah, Kwabena; Phadera, Lokendra
    Keywords: International Development, International Development, Marketing
    Date: 2023
  6. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Lebanon’s severe and multifaceted crisis, triggered by sizable deposit outflows and followed by the country’s first ever external public debt default, has been raging for more than three years. It was aggravated by the COVID-19 crisis and the Beirut port explosion in August 2020, but also allowed to persist and deepen by a failure to take much needed policy action, hampered by a lasting political crisis and resistance from vested interests to reforms. The economic and social impact of the crisis has been staggering: output contracted by an estimated 40 percent over 2019–22, the lira lost about 98 percent of its value in the parallel market, triple digit inflation has decimated real incomes, and unemployment and poverty have increased sharply. After three years, the public sector is failing, the provision of public services is almost nonexistent, and the banking sector has collapsed. Informality and the shadow economy have increased sharply.
    Date: 2023–06–29
  7. By: Diao, Xinshen; Pauw, Karl; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James
    Keywords: REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; economic aspects; agricultural production; agrifood systems; gross national product; employment; labour productivity; value chains; commodities; poverty; diet quality; GDP
    Date: 2023
  8. By: triyawan, andi; cahyo, eko nur; Djayusman, Royyan Ramdhani
    Abstract: This research aims to analyze how exchange rates, inflation, exports, and imports have influenced the economic growth of Qatar between 2000 and 2020. The study utilizes multiple linear regression as its methodology and obtains data on exchange rates, exports, imports, and inflation from the World Bank. The findings of the study indicate that changes in the exchange rate, inflation, exports, and imports all have an impact on Qatar's GDP. In other words, an improvement in these factors leads to an increase in GDP, while a negative influence on these factors results in a decline in GDP. Additionally, the study reveals a positive correlation between Qatar's exchange rate and its economic growth. This means that when the exchange rate rises, so does the level of economic development.
    Date: 2023–06–20

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