nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2023‒04‒24
fifteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. European aid to the MENA region after the Arab uprisings: A window of opportunity missed By Thilo Bodenstein; Mark Furness
  2. Macroeconomic Impacts of Net Zero Pathway for Turkey By Dudu, Hasan; Beck, Hans Anand; Hallegatte, Stephane
  3. Female entrepreneurship and social media in Morocco By Sanae Hobad; Laila Hobad; Abderrazzak Kabbouri
  4. Costs associated with using pharmaceuticals for breast cancer treatment at the Hassan II University Hospital in Fez, Morocco : an ABC method trial By Brahim Bouyahyaoui; Naji Saida; Youssef Hafidi
  5. Being laureate of a Moroccan University, what professional future? A multinomial analysis on a sample of laureates from Hassan 1 st University of Settat By Youssef Lakrari; Ahmed Lemgadar; Abdelkarim Elfatimi; Abdellah Abaida
  6. Impact of the implementation of the ZLECAF on foreign trade, growth and well-being in Morocco: A computable general equilibrium approach By Attouch, Hicham
  7. Elder care in Lebanon: An analysis of care workers and care recipients in the face of crisis By Nassif, Gabriella; Dakkak, Sabine
  8. Lending cycles and real outcomes: costs of political misalignment By Bircan, Çağatay; Saka, Orkun
  9. Customers’ Perceptions of FinTech Adaptability in the Islamic Banking Sector: Comparative study on Malaysia and Saudi Arabia By Oladapo, Ibrahim Abiodun; Hamoudah, Manal Mohammed; Alam, Md. Mahmudul; Muda, Ruhaini; Olaopa, Olawale Rafiu
  10. Trade liberalization as a result of the AfCFTA membership Algeria case By Harbi, Amina
  11. Impact of COVID-19 on Tunisian imports By Medini, Amal; Ben abderrahmen, Chaima; Baghdadi, Leila
  12. Regional Public Investment and Regional Economic Growth : Study Using Spatial Econometrics Panel Data Approach By Bouamoud Safae; Kassaoui Radouane
  13. Transboundary water challenges and potential collaboration in the Tigris-Euphrates river basin water management By Golub, Alla; Haqiqi, Iman; Karami, Omid; Sajedinia, Ehsanreza; Taheripour, Farzad
  14. The global dairy situation and international trade in dairy products: the case of the EU-27 trade relations with Africa and Tunisia By Vincent Chatellier
  15. L'adaptation côtière aux Comores. Le rôle des perceptions et le risque de mal-adaptation By Carola KLÖCK

  1. By: Thilo Bodenstein; Mark Furness
    Abstract: European official development assistance to Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries increased sharply after 2011, ostensibly in support of the social, economic, and above all political changes demanded by the Arab uprisings. The subsequent turn to development policies driven by security and anti-migration agendas, especially following the Syria refugee crisis in the autumn of 2015, raises the question whether initial expressions of support for democratic transformation expressed by European donors were ever backed by concrete measures.
    Keywords: Official development assistance, Democracy aid, MENA
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Dudu, Hasan; Beck, Hans Anand; Hallegatte, Stephane
    Abstract: In this paper we are analyzing the impacts of reaching to net zero by 2053 on Turkey’s economy. We use a CGE model that is calibrated to 2018 Social Accounting Matrix of Turkey. Our scenarios incorporate the results of sectoral analysis from Turkey Country Climate and Development Reports published by the World Bank (2022). We take the results of land use change, energy, transport, and buildings sectors and translate them into shocks in the CGE model. Our results suggest that high levels of electrification of buildings and transport are likely to pose challenges for the net zero pathway of Turkey, although the energy efficiency gains thanks to the mitigation policies are likely to compensate the adverse effects of increasing electricity prices in the short to medium term. Hence Turkey needs to revise the energy sector policies to increase the production capacity of renewables further to ease the transition to a net zero economy. Mitigation policies are progressive in the sense that they do not harm poorer households as much as richer households but still the lower income groups would need to be compensated especially in the early years of the transition. Increase in government revenues thanks to a carbon tax and removing subsidies on fossil fuels would create enough fiscal space for social protection programs required for a just transition. Last, a well-managed transition to a net zero economy offers significant growth benefits for Turkey.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Sanae Hobad (LRSGO - Laboratoire de recherche en sciences de gestion des organisations); Laila Hobad (Le Laboratoire de Recherche en Sciences de Gestion des Organisations - LRSGO); Abderrazzak Kabbouri (Le Laboratoire de Recherche en Sciences de Gestion des Organisations - LRSGO)
    Abstract: Female entrepreneurship is a new concept with older roots, it has become a multidisciplinary field of research, It calls almost everyone in the humanities. A large amount of literature brings together multiple disciplines among economists, sociologists, historians, psychologists, managers and administrators, making it an excellent field of research. Entrepreneurship researchers have managed to note the major problem that entrepreneurs suffers from the Private Life Balance. Social media have invaded the world in recent years, and they make relationships between people easier. These social media have represented an important opportunity for entrepreneurs in general and women entrepreneurs in particular, by being part of an epistemological posture interpretivism, the objective of this paper is to propose an analytical framework for the study of the contributions of social media for female entrepreneurship based on an exploratory study preceded by a literature review. Our study is conducted by six semi-structured interviews and a survey of 94 with Moroccan female entrepreneurs, the results obtained showed that social media constituting an entrepreneurial paradise for Moroccan women entrepreneurs by the resolution of many problems that constitute a hindrance to the success of their business.
    Abstract: L'entrepreneuriat féminin est un nouveau concept avec des racines plus anciennes, il est devenu un champ de recherche pluridisciplinaire, il fait appel de presque tout le monde dans les sciences humaines. Une grande quantité de littérature rassemble de multiples disciplines parmi les économistes, les sociologues, les historiens, les psychologues, les gestionnaires et les administrateurs, ce qui en fait un excellent domaine de recherche. Les chercheurs en entreprenariat ont arrivé à constater le problème majeur que souffre les entrepreneurs celui de l'équilibre travail-vie personnelle. Les médias sociaux ont envahi le monde ces dernières années et ils rendent les relations entre les gens plus faciles, ces médias sociaux ont représenté une importante opportunité pour les entrepreneurs en général et les entrepreneures en particulier, en s'inscrivant dans une posture épistémologique interprétativisme, l'objectif de la présente papier est de proposer un cadre analytique de l'étude des apports des médias sociaux pour l'entrepreneuriat féminin en se basant sur une étude exploratoire précédée par une revue de littérature. Notre étude est menée par 6 entretiens semi-directifs et une enquête de 94 questionnaires auprès des entrepreneures Marocaines, les résultats obtenus ont montré que les médias sociaux constituent un paradis entrepreneurial pour les femmes Marocaines entrepreneures par la résolution de beaucoup des problèmes qui constituent une entrave au succès de leurs affaires.
    Keywords: Female entrepreneurship, ICT, Social media, Morocco, L’entrepreneuriat féminin, Les TIC, Médias sociaux, Maroc
    Date: 2023–01–25
  4. By: Brahim Bouyahyaoui (Center of Doctoral Studies on Law and Economy, University Mohamed V Souissi); Naji Saida (Center of Doctoral Studies on Law and Economy, University Mohamed V Souissi); Youssef Hafidi (Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah, Fès -)
    Abstract: Déclaration de divulgation : L'auteur n'a pas connaissance de quelconque financement qui pourrait affecter l'objectivité de cette étude. Conflit d'intérêts : L'auteur ne signale aucun conflit d'intérêts. Pour citer cet article : BOUYAHYAOUI, B. NAJI, S. HAFIDI, Y (2022) « Coût de la consommation des produits pharmaceutiques liés à la prise en charge du cancer du sein au CHU Hassan II de Fès-Maroc :
    Keywords: Health economics, Pharmaceutical spending, ABC method, Breast cancer, Pharmaco-économie, produits pharmaceutiques, Activity-Based-Costing ABC, cancer du sein.
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Youssef Lakrari (LARETA - Laboratoire de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - Université Hassan 1er [Settat]); Ahmed Lemgadar (LARETA - Laboratoire de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - Université Hassan 1er [Settat]); Abdelkarim Elfatimi (LARETA - Laboratoire de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - Université Hassan 1er [Settat]); Abdellah Abaida (MIRA - Laboratoire de Recherche en Management, Innovation et Recherche Appliquée - Université Ibn Zohr [Agadir])
    Abstract: This article aims to highlight the determining factors of career paths for a sample of 600 graduates from the Hassan 1st University of Settat (cohort 2014/2015), three years after leaving the institution. These factors include age, parental education level, and parental socio-economic status. Using this sample, the study estimates the probability of belonging to one of three trajectory classes ("Further Education, " "Fast and Sustainable Employment Access, " and "Recurrent or Persistent Unemployment") through a multinomial logit model. Results show that not only the level of education but also social networks and professional experience, such as internships, play a role. The study also highlights the significant role of parental education level in career path choices.
    Abstract: Cet article propose de mettre en évidence, pour un échantillon de 600 diplômés de l'Université Hassan 1er de Settat (cohorte 2014/2015) trois ans après leur sortie de l'établissement d'enseignement, les facteurs déterminants des choix de parcours professionnels, tels l'âge, le niveau d'instruction des parents, la CSP des parents…. Sur la base de cet échantillon, nous estimons la probabilité de faire partie de l'une des 3 classes (trajectoire suivie) (« Poursuite d'études » ; « Accès rapide et durable à l'emploi » et « Chômage récurrent ou persistant »), et cela à travers un modèle logit multinomial. Les résultats obtenus mettent en évidence non seulement le rôle du niveau des études mais également celui des réseaux sociaux et de l'expérience professionnelle tel que les stages. Ils montrent également le rôle important de niveau d'instruction des parents dans le choix de parcours professionnel.
    Keywords: Professional Insertion, Unemployment, Continuation of studies, Hassan 1st University, Multinomial Logit, Morocco., Insertion Professionnelle, Chômage, Poursuite d’études, Université Hassan 1er, Logit multinomial, Maroc.
    Date: 2023–02–16
  6. By: Attouch, Hicham
    Abstract: Over the years, globalization and its corollary regionalization have only reinforced free trade trends. Indeed, free trade agreements have multiplied and with them hopes for greater mobility of goods, people and capital. It is within this framework that the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area "ZLECAF", which aims to be development and inclusive growth for all the countries of Africa. One of the essential steps for African integration and the achievement of Agenda 2063 is the strengthening of intra-continent trade. Such a strategic objective requires tariff and non-tariff liberalization. Using a computable general equilibrium approach, we analyzed, from the macroeconomic data of Morocco from 2015, the expected effects of a unilateral Morocco / rest of Africa tariff dismantling on foreign trade, growth and well-being. The results of our analysis show that imports from the rest of Africa will increase without the Moroccan economy being truly destabilized with some minor gains in certain sectors and also in household well-being.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Nassif, Gabriella; Dakkak, Sabine
    Abstract: The current socioeconomic and political crises plaguing Lebanon have exacerbated the ongoing care crisis, in particular for care workers and elderly care recipients. Over the past decade, non Arab migrant domestic workers have been, alongside family members, primarily responsible for providing privatized, in-home care for ageing Lebanese. This care, ranging from cooking and cleaning to administering medicines and providing care for people with disabilities, exists in the stark absence of substantive state-provided services for a rapidly ageing population. Under the pressures of the current economic crisis, however, the arrangements of this form of commodified care have come under particular strain, causing both care workers and care recipients to suffer. To better understand elderly care needs in Lebanon amidst the current, multi-faceted crisis, this report foregrounds the personal experiences and needs of both care workers, primarily non-Arab migrant domestic workers, and elderly care employers and recipients. Findings suggest that the most acute care needs for elderly Lebanese include long-term healthcare, emotional companionship, and domestic labor, at an affordable price. Workers highlighted the overwhelming nature of elderly work, their need for workplace support, and ultimately, their demands for a better legislative framework to protect them as migrant workers.
    Keywords: LEBANON; ASIA; crises; care work; migrant labour; domestic work; elderly; ageing; services; economic crises; healthcare; prices; legislation; women elderly care; women migrants;
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Bircan, Çağatay; Saka, Orkun
    Abstract: We document a strong political cycle in bank credit and industry outcomes in Turkey. In line with theories of tactical redistribution, state-owned banks systematically adjust their lending around local elections compared with private banks in the same province based on electoral competition and political alignment of incumbent mayors. This effect only exists in corporate lending and creates credit constraints for firms in opposition areas, which suffer drops in assets, employment and sales but not firm entry. Financial resources and factors of production are misallocated as more efficient provinces and industries suffer the greatest constraints, reducing aggregate productivity.
    JEL: D72 D73 G21 P16
    Date: 2021–10–04
  9. By: Oladapo, Ibrahim Abiodun; Hamoudah, Manal Mohammed; Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Muda, Ruhaini; Olaopa, Olawale Rafiu
    Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to compare the perceptions of Islamic bank customers concerning FinTech services in Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. It also investigates the level to which customers are willing to adapt FinTech services. Design/methodology/approach – Primary data were collected from May to September 2019 using a questionnaire to survey 102 Islamic bank customers in Malaysia, and 147 in Saudi Arabia.The data are analysed based on Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) using the partial least squares (PLS) approach. Findings – The findings show that knowledge, attitude, and subjective norms are the highly significant determining factors that influence customers’ opinions on adapting to new technology, but awareness demonstrates only a moderately positive effect. Moreover, the impact of these factors on the intention to adopt FinTech services significantly differs between Malaysian and Saudi Arabian customers. Originality/value – This is an original study based on primary data on customers of Islamic banking in Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. It provides some novel insights into how the Islamic banking industry can boost customers’ confidence and enhance their patronage by adopting FinTech in their business operation model. These findings should be of value to managers, policymakers, and regulators in the Islamic banking industry in both Muslim and non-Muslim countries.
    Date: 2022–03–08
  10. By: Harbi, Amina
    Abstract: The Agreement on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) effectively came into effect on January 01, 2021. The AfCFTA plans to phase out tariffs as well as all other obstacles on intra-African trade. Through this study, we have tried to initiate a reflection on the expected effects on the Algerian economy, of opening up trade as part of its membership in the AfCFTA. To do this, we used a computable general equilibrium model, which we adapted to data from a Social Accounting Matrix made up of 26 sectors, 8 production factors, 10 household categories and 2 regions (foreign trade). We simulated two trade policy measures: first, a reduction in customs duties on some products (those whose shares in the supply of products from the "Africa" region are the highest) and then, an elimination of all customs duties. Although differentiated, the results obtained are generally negative, particularly in terms of public finances, with the decline in the government revenues. It should also be noted that these impacts are not large-scale, the volume of trade in goods between Algeria and the "Africa" region being relatively low.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022
  11. By: Medini, Amal; Ben abderrahmen, Chaima; Baghdadi, Leila
    Abstract: COVID-19 pandemic caused significant disruption of trade flows between countries, revealing the vulnerability of global value chains. This unexpected event sparked a public debate on devising new policies to increase the resilience of value chains. This study identifies vulnerabilities related to supply chains with a specific focus on Tunisian imports during the period 2019-2020. To this end, we select three potential drivers of import vulnerability based on post-pandemic reports and discussions and assess their impact on Tunisia’s overall imports using quantitative analysis. We consider, for each product, (1) the market concentration of Tunisia’s suppliers, (2) the intensity of imports and (3) we also consider COVID-19 products – that we call ‘essential products’ – as potential source of import vulnerability and assess their impact separately. These factors are country-specific product characteristics. Then, we identify a model based on first differences estimator to assess the impact of the change in vulnerable imports on the change in total imports at the country-month and country-quarter levels using import data for the period 2019-20. Finally, we use input-output linkages to assess the level of exposure of Tunisia’s local industries to vulnerable supplies from partner countries through a downstream propagation approach. This framework will help us get insights into Tunisia’s most sensitive imports and industries.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022
  12. By: Bouamoud Safae (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Kassaoui Radouane (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal])
    Abstract: Regional public investment gained momentum after the adoption of advanced regionalization, becoming an important research topic and instrument of public policies to reshape the Moroccan political and economic scene. This article analyzes the impact of public investment on economic growth following a regional and spatial logic. The objective of this study is to detect spatial effects in the estimation of Lee and Yu's QMLE by examining the relationship between regional public investment and regional economic growth over the period 2015-2019 based on the principles of spatial econometrics. The results show a marginal or weak effect of regional public investment, while regional employment remains a determining factor of regional economic growth. As for the effects of spatial diffusion, regional GDP remains a better instrument to combat against spatial inequalities.
    Abstract: L'investissement public régional a pris son ampleur après l'adoption de la régionalisation avancée, est devenu un sujet important de recherche et un instrument des politiques publiques pour reconfigurer à nouveau la scène politique et économique marocaine. Cet article analyse l'impact de l'investissement public sur la croissance économique suivant une logique régionale et spatiale. L'objectif de cette étude est de déceler les effets spatiaux dans l'estimation du QMLE de Lee and Yu, ceci nous a conduit à traiter la relation entre l'investissement public régional et la croissance économique régionale sur la période 2015-2019, en se basant effectivement sur les principes de l'économétrie spatiale. Les résultats obtenus montrent un effet marginal voire faible de l'investissement public régional, tandis que l'emploi régional demeure un facteur déterminant de la croissance économique régionale. Quant aux effets de diffusion spatiale, le produit intérieur brut régional reste un meilleur instrument pour lutter contre les inégalités spatiales.
    Keywords: The regional public investment, Regional economic growth, Advanced regionalization, Spatial econometrics in panel data, Spatial spillover effects, L’investissement public régional, La croissance économique régionale, La régionalisation avancée, L’économétrie spatiale en données de panel, Les effets de diffusion spatiale
    Date: 2023–03–07
  13. By: Golub, Alla; Haqiqi, Iman; Karami, Omid; Sajedinia, Ehsanreza; Taheripour, Farzad
    Abstract: Transboundary water resources are crucial in ensuring people have an adequate water supply. These shared resources need to be managed in a sustainable, equitable, and collaborative manner. The focus of this study is on Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, where the situation is particularly difficult due to climate change, weak cooperation among riparian countries, intensive hydropower development, inefficient agricultural practices, and political instability. This study evaluates the economic outcomes of transboundary water allocation scenarios under alternative climate futures and considers cooperation plans that can be implemented to reduce controversies over water allocation in the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin. In addition to the contribution to resource policy literature, this study offers a unique coupling of a complex economic model with a hydrological model.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022
  14. By: Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement)
    Abstract: Dairy products benefit from sustained international demand (+1.8% per year) due to population growth and the gradual modification of diets. This demand dynamic is taking place in a production context that is becoming more delicate due to the impact of global warming on fodder production, soaring raw material prices, the negative environmental impact of dairy production in several geographical areas and, at least in some countries, the difficulty of ensuring the generational renewal of farmers. International prices for dairy products have become highly volatile. After an analysis of the main trends at work, on a global scale, between the supply and demand of dairy products, this communication deals more with the evolution of world trade in dairy products. To do this, it relies on the processing of customs data, both on an international scale (via the BACI database) and at the more restricted level of the European Union (via the Comext database). Mainly dominated by three major zones (the European Union, New Zealand and the United States), world exports of dairy products practically tripled (in current currency) between 2000 and 2020 to reach almost 60 billion euros (excluding intra-European Union trade). The rise of China in world dairy imports, the recent levelling off of New Zealand's exports and the strong diversification of the types of dairy products exported are three significant phenomena of the last decade. The European Union has consolidated its leading position in world dairy exports, accounting for 38% of world trade by value. This communication also focuses on the evolution of trade in dairy products between the Member States of the European Union and the African continent, while identifying the particular case of Tunisia.
    Abstract: Les produits laitiers bénéficient à l'échelle internationale d'une demande soutenue (+1, 8% par an) en raison de l'essor démographique et de la modification progressive des régimes alimentaires. Cette dynamique de la demande intervient dans un contexte productif qui devient plus délicat en raison de l'impact du réchauffement climatique sur les productions fourragères, de la flambée du prix des matières premières, des impacts environnementaux négatifs de la production laitière dans plusieurs zones géographiques et, du moins dans certains pays, de la difficulté à assurer le renouvellement générationnel des éleveurs. Les prix internationaux de produits laitiers sont devenus fortement volatils. Après une analyse des principales grandes tendances à l'œuvre, à l'échelle mondiale, entre l'offre et la demande de produits laitiers, cette communication traite plus de la dynamique des échanges mondiaux de produits laitiers. Pour ce faire, elle s'appuie sur un traitement des données des douanes, tant à l'échelle internationale (via la base de données BACI) qu'au niveau plus restreint de l'Union européenne (via la base de données Comext). Dominées pour l'essentiel par trois grandes zones (l'Union européenne, la Nouvelle-Zélande et les Etats-Unis), les exportations mondiales de produits laitiers ont pratiquement triplé (en monnaie courante) entre 2000 et 2020 pour atteindre près de 60 milliards d'euros (hors commerce intra-Union européenne). La montée en puissance de la Chine dans les importations mondiales de produits laitiers, le plafonnement récent des exportations de la Nouvelle-Zélande et la forte diversification des types de produits laitiers exportés constituent trois phénomènes marquants de la dernière décennie écoulée. L'Union européenne conforte sa position de leader dans les exportations mondiales de produits laitiers, en représentant 38% des échanges mondiaux exprimés en valeur. Dans cette communication, une focalisation est également faite sur l'évolution des échanges de produits laitiers entre les Etats membres de l'Union européenne et le continent africain, ce tout en identifiant le cas particulier de la Tunisie.
    Keywords: Dairy markets, Dairy products, International trade, Competitiveness, Prices, European Union, Africa, Tunisia, Marchés laitiers, Produits laitiers, Echanges internationaux, Compétitivité, Prix, Union européenne, Afrique, Tunisie
    Date: 2023–03–06
  15. By: Carola KLÖCK
    Abstract: L’érosion côtière et les inondations marines constituent un défi majeur pour les Comores. Comment y faire face ? Pour répondre à cette question, la présente étude se concentre sur les perceptions de la population locale. À travers une analyse documentaire et un travail de terrain comprenant des entretiens et des enquêtes, l’étude montre que l’érosion côtière est le résultat de multiples facteurs. Malgré le rôle des pressions locales - notamment l’extraction de sable - la population favorise une approche « dure » de la protection côtière. Des réponses alternatives sont envisageables, mais leur implémentation est contrainte par les différentes perceptions locales et les faibles moyens d’adaptation. Afin de diversifier les réponses face à l’érosion côtière, il convient de renforcer (i) les capacités d’adaptation, (ii) les structures locales, et (iii) le suivi des projets.
    Keywords: Comores
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2023–04–07

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