nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2023‒03‒27
eleven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The post-Erdoğan vision of Turkish opposition: Opportunities and limitations By Şar, Edgar
  2. Econometric Study of the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in Morocco By Arib Fatima; Houria Et-Touile
  3. Regional disparities and public spending in Morocco: An approach through spatial econometrics By Abdessalam El kadib; Ghizlane Ouhakki; Kaoutar Rais
  4. Econometric assessment of the monetary policy shocks in Morocco: Evidence from a Bayesian Factor-Augmented VAR By Marouane Daoui
  5. A Comparative Analysis of Forecasting Models Using Moroccan Economic Data: The Factor-Augmented Error Correction Model in Perspective By Daoui Marouane
  6. Forecasting the Turkish Lira Exchange Rates through Univariate Techniques: Can the Simple Models Outperform the Sophisticated Ones? By Mostafa R. Sarkandiz
  7. Israel's anti-liberal coalition: The new government is seeking fundamental changes in the political system and in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict By Lintl, Peter
  8. Déterminants des prix de transfert pour les multinationales marocaines : Étude empirique sur les sociétés cotées à la bourse de Casablanca pour la période 2016-2019 Transfer pricing determinants for Moroccan multinationals: Empirical study on companies listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange for the period 2016-2019 By Abdeljalal Elhammoudi; Yousra Abkar
  9. Analyse de l’expérience de la destination à travers les avis en ligne sur Trip Advisor : une application à la Tunisie By Leila Sethom; Nathalie Fleck; Alice Crepin
  10. Réinvestissement des IDE au Maroc : un potentiel à exploiter By Oumayma Bourhriba; Badr Mandri
  11. Généralisation des allocations familiales et impact sur la pauvreté et la vulnérabilité monétaires des enfants en période Post-Covid au Maroc By Touhami Abdelkhalek; Dorothee Boccanfuso

  1. By: Şar, Edgar
    Abstract: Nearly a year after its formation, the Nation Alliance, consisting of six opposition parties ("Table of Six"), finally started to act like a full-fledged electoral alliance against the ruling bloc under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The six opposition leaders have long been criticised for failing to take concrete steps towards embodying a viable political alternative to the People's Alliance of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) since they publicly signed the joint manifesto for Turkey's transition into the "Strengthened Parliamentary System" in February 2022. Although the alliance has yet to announce its joint presidential candidate, it has manifested an unprecedentedly comprehensive joint platform in nine policy areas, including the rule of law, public administration, social policy, economy, and foreign policy. The 200-page joint document provides a comprehensive overview of what changes Turkey can be expected to go through in the short and medium terms should the Nation Alliance manage to defeat President Erdoğan's ruling bloc in the upcoming elections, which will probably take place on 14 May 2023. Even though it would not immediately offer a solution to various issues in Turkey-EU relations, a possible opposition victory could bring bilateral relations back to an institutional framework, whereby both parties can cooperate in a productive way to work out their problems and focus on common interests.
    Keywords: Turkey, elections, Nation Alliance, "Table of Six", Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Justice and Development Party (AKP), Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), European Union (EU)
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Arib Fatima; Houria Et-Touile (UCA - Université Cadi Ayyad [Marrakech])
    Abstract: The agricultural sector is one of the most sensitive sectors to climate change, this sector is directly affected by temperature and rainfall and the rate of arable land, which are an input in food security. The main objective of this paper is to assess theimpacts of climate change and arable land on food security in Morocco between 1971 and 2017, using a cointegration model based on the ARDL (Autoregressive Staggered Delayed Rise) approach. The empirical results show that an increase in precipitationhas apositive effect on agricultural GDP, theincrease in temperatureby 1% has a negative effect on agricultural GDP with a decrease of 3.14% in the short term and 5% in the long term, while arable land does not directly influence the country's food security. In order to minimize the negative effects of climate change in Morocco, whose agricultural sector represents the most important sector of the economy, it is important to establish adaptation policies to fight against climate change
    Abstract: Le secteur agricole est l'un des secteurs les plus sensibles au changement climatique, ce secteur est directement affecté par la température et les précipitations et le taux des terres arables, qui sont un intrant dans la sécurité alimentaire. L'objectif principal de cet article est d'évaluer les impacts du changement climatique et des terres arables sur la sécurité alimentaire au Maroc entre 1971 et 2017à partir d'un modèle de cointégration fondé sur l'approche ARDL (autorégressif à retards échelonnés). Les résultats empiriques montrent qu'une augmentation des précipitations a un effet positif sur le PIB agricole, l'augmentation de la température de 1% a un effet négatif sur le PIB agricole avec une diminution de 3.14% à court terme et de 5% à long terme, tandis que les terres arables n'influent pas directement la sécurité alimentaire du pays. Afin de minimiser les effets négatifs du changement climatique au Maroc, dont le secteur agricole représente le secteur le plus important de l'économie, il est important d'établir des politiques d'adaptation pour lutter contre le changement climatique
    Date: 2022–03
  3. By: Abdessalam El kadib (fsjes Agdal - Economie et Gestion - FSJES Rabat); Ghizlane Ouhakki (fsjes Agdal - Economie et Gestion - FSJES Rabat); Kaoutar Rais (fsjes Agdal - Economie et Gestion - FSJES Rabat)
    Abstract: The objective of this work is to analyse regional inequalities in terms of spending in Moroccan regions using the Exploratory Analysis of Spatial Data applied to Spending by the 12 regions over the period 2015-2019. The results obtained demonstrate the existence of a spatial autocorrelation not only at the global level but also at the local level, as well as a strong Heterogeneity in the distribution of wealth. Moreover, the results also show a specific character of polarisation, since enlargement led to a pattern of polarisation in the heart of the country, especially, the region of Casablanca-Settat and its peripheral regions. In addition, this study allowed us to identify the consequences of enlargement on Moroccan regional policy.
    Abstract: L'objectif de ce travail est d'analyser les disparités régionales en termes des dépenses dans les régions marocaines en utilisant l'Analyse Exploratoire des Données Spatiales appliquée aux dépenses des 12 régions sur la période 2015-2019. Les résultats obtenus prouvent l'existence d'une auto-corrélation spatiale non seulement au niveau global mais également au niveau local, ainsi qu'une forte hétérogénéité quant à la distribution des richesses. En outre, les résultats montrent un caractère spécifique de polarisation, puisque l'élargissement mène à un schéma de polarisation au coeur du royaume, particulièrement, la région de Casablanca-Settat et ses régions périphériques. Enfin, cette étude nous a permis de dégager les conséquences de l'élargissement sur la politique régionale marocaine.
    Keywords: regional policies regional disparities spending spatial autocorrelation spatial heterogeneity agglomeration spatial econometrics, Politique régionale disparités régionales dépenses autocorrélation spatiale hétérogénéité spatiale agglomération économétrie spatiale
    Date: 2022–12–22
  4. By: Marouane Daoui
    Abstract: The analysis of the effects of monetary policy shocks using the common econometric models (such as VAR or SVAR) poses several empirical anomalies. However, it is known that in these econometric models the use of a large amount of information is accompanied by dimensionality problems. In this context, the approach in terms of FAVAR (Factor Augmented VAR) models tries to solve this problem. Moreover, the information contained in the factors is important for the correct identification of monetary policy shocks and it helps to correct the empirical anomalies usually encountered in empirical work. Following Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005) procedure, we will use the FAVAR model to analyze the impact of monetary policy shocks on the Moroccan economy. The model used allows us to obtain impulse response functions for all indicators in the macroeconomic dataset used (117 quarterly frequency series from 1985: Q1 to 2018: Q4) to have a more realistic and complete representation of the impact of monetary policy shocks in Morocco.
    Date: 2023–02
  5. By: Daoui Marouane
    Abstract: This paper presents a comparative analysis of economic forecasting models using a large Moroccan economic database, with a focus on the factor-augmented error correction model (FECM). The FECM is a powerful tool that offers a flexible and reliable approach to economic forecasting by combining the advantages of dynamic factor models and cointegration. It addresses the limitations of traditional econometric models by including a larger number of variables and modelling long-term relationships. The inclusion of long-term information and common factors enhances the ability to capture economic dynamics, making it a more robust forecasting model. This paper provides an examination of the FECM specification and demonstrates its forecasting capabilities through an empirical example using a large Moroccan economic database.
    Date: 2023–02
  6. By: Mostafa R. Sarkandiz
    Abstract: Throughout the past year, Turkey's central bank policy to decrease the nominal interest rate has caused episodes of severe fluctuations in Turkish lira exchange rates. According to these conditions, the daily return of the USD/TRY have attracted the risk-taker investors' attention. Therefore, the uncertainty about the rates has pushed algorithmic traders toward finding the best forecasting model. While there is a growing tendency to employ sophisticated models to forecast financial time series, in most cases, simple models can provide more precise forecasts. To examine that claim, present study has utilized several models to predict daily exchange rates for a short horizon. Interestingly, the simple exponential smoothing model outperformed all other alternatives. Besides, in contrast to the initial inferences, the time series neither had structural break nor exhibited signs of the ARCH and leverage effects. Despite that behavior, there was undeniable evidence of a long-memory trend. That means the series tends to keep a movement, at least for a short period. Finally, the study concluded the simple models provide better forecasts for exchange rates than the complicated approaches.
    Date: 2023–02
  7. By: Lintl, Peter
    Abstract: The new government in Israel is politically further to the right than any other before it. The success of the radical right parties and their inclusion in the government are the results of a long-term transformation of Israel's political landscape. One characteristic of this development is the genesis of a right-wing majority, accompanied by a shift to the right of the mainstream, and the political legitimisation of the most radical segment of Israeli society. The common denominator of this government is its anti-liberal impetus, which amounts to a reorganisation of the state. The government intends to weaken democratic mechanisms, especially the system of checks and balances, the status of the Supreme Court, and that of fundamental rights. Instead, majoritarian principles are to be strengthened, placing few limits on government majorities. This disruptive approach also applies to the conflict with the Palestinians. Here, victory is sought: The integration of the West Bank into the legal territory of the state of Israel is to be made irreversible.
    Keywords: Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Betzalel Smotrich, Itamar Ben-Gvir, Michael Ben-Ari, Likud, Israel Beitenu, Religios Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, Noam, ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas, Haredim, United Tora Judaism, majoritarian democracy, West Bank, annexation, halacha
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Abdeljalal Elhammoudi (FSJES TANGER - faculté des sciences juridiques economiques et sociales de Tanger); Yousra Abkar
    Abstract: Transfer pricing is a concern for all countries in the world. In fact, a number of studies around the world have examined the determinants of transfer pricing in countries such as Australia and Indonesia, but their results are contradictory as to the determinants of transfer pricing(as an example; the study by Richardson. G and al (2013) of 183 Australian listed companies for the year 2009 as well as the study of Atwal.A and al (2020), related to industrial companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2015-2018). The present study was conducted in Morocco to examine the effect of firm size, profitability, leverage, taxation and multinationality on transfer pricing for Moroccan multinationals. Thus, it uses secondary data on financial reports or annual reports of companies listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange for the period 2016-2019. The sampling technique uses the purposive method to obtain 80 samples in the observation period of 2016-2019. In this study, descriptive statistical tests were conducted and logistic regression test was used to test the hypotheses. As a result of the research, debt and multinationality have a significant effect on the transfer pricing decision. In contrast, firm size, profitability and taxation do not have a significant effect on transfer pricing decisions. This work will provide academics with data for the development of transfer pricing design in Morocco and will also provide the Moroccan tax administration and companies with information to take into account when setting transfer prices
    Abstract: Les prix de transfert sont devenus une préoccupation pour tous les pays du monde. En fait, un certain nombre d'études dans le monde ont examiné les déterminants des prix de transfert dans des pays comme l'Australie et l'Indonésie, mais leurs résultats sont contradictoires quant aux déterminants des prix de transfert (à titre d'exemple; l'étude de Richardson. G et al (2013) de 183 entreprises australiennes cotées pour l'année 2009 ainsi que l'étude de Atwal.A et al., (2020), relative aux entreprises industrielles cotées à la Bourse d'Indonésie en 2015-2018). La présente étude a été menée au Maroc pour examiner l'effet de la taille de l'entreprise, de la rentabilité, de l'effet de levier, de la taxe et de la multinationalité sur les prix de transfert des multinationales marocaines. Ainsi, elle utilise des données secondaires sur les rapports financiers et les rapports annuels des sociétés marocaines cotées à la Bourse de Casablanca pour la période 2016-2019. La technique d'échantillonnage utilise la méthode intentionnelle pour obtenir 80 échantillons dans la période d'observation de 2016-2019. De plus, des tests statistiques descriptifs ont été réalisés ainsi le test de régression logistique a été utilisé pour valider ou rejeter les hypothèses de cette étude. Il résulte de cette recherche que la dette et la multinationalité ont un effet significatif sur la décision de prix de transfert. En revanche, la taille de l'entreprise, la rentabilité et la fiscalité n'ont pas d'effet significatif sur les décisions de prix de transfert. Ce travail fournira aux universitaires des données pour le développement de la conception des prix de transfert au Maroc et fournira également à l'administration fiscale marocaine et aux entreprises des informations à prendre en compte lors de la prise des décisions en matière des prix de transfert.
    Keywords: Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales BP.1373-Poste principale-Tanger taille d'entreprise rentabilité endettement taxe multinationalité prix de transfert JEL Classification : F23 H2 M4 Type de l'article : Recherche empirique company size profitability debt tax multinationality transfer pricing JEL Classification: F23 H2 M4 Paper type: Empirical research, Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales BP.1373-Poste principale-Tanger taille d'entreprise, rentabilité, endettement, taxe, multinationalité, prix de transfert JEL Classification : F23, H2, M4 Type de l'article : Recherche empirique company size, profitability, debt, tax, multinationality, transfer pricing JEL Classification: F23, M4 Paper type: Empirical research
    Date: 2022–11–30
  9. By: Leila Sethom (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Nathalie Fleck (ARGUMans - Laboratoire de recherche en gestion Le Mans Université - UM - Le Mans Université); Alice Crepin (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper aims to analyze the evaluation of destination experience through the brand experience framework of Brakus and colleagues (2009). To do so, we are conducting a quantitative study via Natural Language Processing (NLP) on the TripAdvisor online reviews of travelers commenting their experiences in Tunisian tourist regions. Identifying the dimensions of the experience first raises the question of selecting an appropriate content analysis tool. Thus, we compare a manual content coding to an automatic one via the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count reference dictionary (LIWC, Tausczik & Pennebaker, 2010). The results show that manual coding is richer and more thorough, and thus achieves significant effects
    Abstract: Ce travail a pour objectif d'analyser l'évaluation de l'expérience de la destination touristique à travers les dimensions de l'expérience définies par Brakus et ses collègues (2009). Pour ce faire, nous menons une étude quantitative via Natural Langage Processing (NLP) sur les avis en ligne sur TripAdvisor de voyageurs commentant leurs expériences dans des régions touristiques tunisiennes. L'identification des dimensions de l'expérience pose tout d'abord la question du choix d'un outil d'analyse de contenu adéquat. Aussi, nous comparons une analyse de contenu manuelle à une analyse automatique via le dictionnaire de référence Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC, Tausczik & Pennebaker, 2010). Les résultats montrent que le codage manuel est plus riche et plus fin, et permet ainsi d'obtenir davantage d'effets significatifs. Mots clefs : expérience de la destination ; bouche à oreille électronique ; traitement naturel du langage (NLP) ; codage manuel versus automatique ; LIWC ANALYZING DESTINATION EXPERIENCE THROUGH ONLINE REVIEWS ON TRIPADVISOR: AN APPLICATION TO TUNISIA Abstract This paper aims to analyze the evaluation of destination experience through the brand experience framework of Brakus and colleagues (2009). To do so, we are conducting a quantitative study via Natural Language Processing (NLP) on the TripAdvisor online reviews of travelers commenting their experiences in Tunisian tourist regions. Identifying the dimensions of the experience first raises the question of selecting an appropriate content analysis tool. Thus, we compare a manual content coding to an automatic one via the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count reference dictionary (LIWC, Tausczik & Pennebaker, 2010). The results show that manual coding is richer and more thorough, and thus achieves significant effects.
    Keywords: expérience de la destination, bouche à oreille électronique, traitement naturel du langage (NLP), codage manuel versus automatique, LIWC
    Date: 2022–05
  10. By: Oumayma Bourhriba; Badr Mandri
    Abstract: Le roÌ‚le des Investissements directs eÌ trangers (IDE), comme catalyseur de croissance eÌ conomique et facteur fondamental d’inteÌ gration dans l’eÌ conomie mondiale, fait l’objet d’un grand consensus. Ce Policy Brief se focalise sur une dimension des IDE qui est le reÌ investissement des beÌ neÌ fices comme, non seulement une source de financement suppleÌ mentaire aÌ€ travers l’expansion des IDE existants, mais eÌ galement un fort signal des opportuniteÌ s d’investissement pour les nouveaux investisseurs. L’objectif de ce Papier est de mettre en avant l’importance de cette composante des IDE et ses deÌ terminants. Il apporte aussi un aperçu sur l’eÌ volution du reÌ investissement des IDE au Maroc et des politiques permettant de promouvoir ce potentiel.
    Date: 2022–12
  11. By: Touhami Abdelkhalek; Dorothee Boccanfuso
    Abstract: Dans ce Papier, nous eÌ valuons, d’une part, l'impact de la pandeÌ mie et des mesures compensatoires prises par le gouvernement pour atteÌ nuer l'incidence de la crise sanitaire et, d’autre part, de la geÌ neÌ ralisation des allocations familiales sur la pauvreteÌ moneÌ taire et la vulneÌ rabiliteÌ de la population marocaine, notamment des enfants. Ceci s’inscrit dans le cadre de la refonte du systeÌ€me de protection sociale devenue une prioriteÌ nationale. Nous utilisons un modeÌ€le microsimuleÌ appliqueÌ sur les donneÌ es de la vague 2019 de l'EnqueÌ‚te Panel de meÌ nages (EPM) de l'observatoire national du deÌ veloppement humain (ONDH). Nos reÌ sultats montrent que les mesures mises en place par le gouvernement, en plus d'avoir compenseÌ l'effet de la pandeÌ mie sur la pauvreteÌ et la vulneÌ rabiliteÌ , se reÌ veÌ€lent aussi avoir eÌ teÌ pro-pauvres. Cet effet se renforce nettement avec la geÌ neÌ ralisation des allocations familiales, particulieÌ€rement en milieu urbain. Cette dernieÌ€re apparait, de plus, eÌ‚tre une mesure relativement peu couÌ‚teuse pour le Maroc avec un ciblage assez simple et des effets favorables sur la pauvreteÌ et la vulneÌ rabiliteÌ .
    Date: 2022–09

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