nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2023‒02‒06
eighteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The role of the financial sector and governance in promoting formal entrepreneurship in the mena region By Rania S. Moaaz
  2. Investigating the Effects of Environmental and Energy Policies in Turkey Using an Energy Disaggregated CGE Model By Ali Bayar; Dizem Ertac Varoglu
  3. The covid-19 pandemic impact on the saudi arabia tourism sector: an accountancy approach By Seraj Bahrawi; Mohammed Abulkhair; Sami Mensi
  4. Decentralization, Transparency of Public Procurement, and Corruption in MENA Countries By Najah Souissi-Kachouri; Meriem Guizani-Jelassi
  5. Alternative Fuels for Saudi Cement Manufacturing with Time-varying Carbon Pricing By Walid Matar; Doaa Filali
  6. Switching Monetary-Fiscal Regimes in Egypt: Is the Fiscal Stimulus Necessarily Good in Bad Times? By Dina Kassab
  7. The Economic Legacy of the French Mandate in Lebanon By Joelle M. Abi-Rached; Ishac Diwan
  8. Net Zero Saudi Arabia: How Green Can the Oil Kingdom Get? By Krane, J.
  9. Resource Allocation in Power-Sharing Arrangements: Evidence from Lebanon By Mounir Mahmalat; Sami Atallah; Wassim Maktabi
  10. Arab Republic of Egypt: Request for Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  11. On decomposing the changes in wage inequality in palestine over time By Hatem Jemmali; Rabeh Morrar; Fernando Rios-Avila
  12. Impacts, Sustainability, and Resilience on the Egyptian Tourism and Hospitality Industry after the Russian Airplane crash in 2015 By Said El Atiek; Stéphane Goutte
  13. Women, Gender, and the Iraqi Uprising: Inequality, Space, and Feminist Prospects (In Arabic) By Asma Jamil Rashid; Zahraa Ali
  14. Firm-Level Impact of Public Credit Guarantees By Ufuk Akcigit; Unal Seven; Ibrahim Yarba; Fatih Yilmaz
  15. The labor market returns to unobserved skills: Evidence from a gender quota By Moeeni, Safoura; Wei, Feng
  16. Lebanon: Technical Assistance Report on Putting Tax Policy Back on Track By International Monetary Fund
  17. Panorama of the apple sector in Lebanon: structure and constraints By Hala Abdallah; Selma Tozanli; Fatima F. El Hadad-Gauthier; Salem Darwich
  18. La Crise Climatique, La Sensibilité Macroéconomique et La Réponse des Envois de Fonds dans l’Afrique du Nord:Une Modélisation VAR en Panel By Hajer Habib

  1. By: Rania S. Moaaz (Al-Ahram Canadian University)
    Abstract: Formal entrepreneurship is a worldwide phenomenon that has not received enough attention from scholars in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies. This study investigates the impact of governance quality and financial development on formal entrepreneurship in nine MENA economies. The study uses a panel data analysis via a twostage least squares (2SLS) estimation for the period 2010-18, as well as a principal component analysis to generate a composite governance index that captures all six dimensions of the governance indicators. The study concludes that governance and financial development have a positive and statistically significant impact on formal entrepreneurship. However, other statistically significant explanatory variables were found to negatively impact our dependent variable in MENA economies, which proves that the development of formal entrepreneurship is a multi-dimensional process that involves institutional quality, sound macroeconomic policies, adequate infrastructure, a stable currency regime, and a fair judicial system, among other factors.
    Date: 2022–12–20
  2. By: Ali Bayar (EcoMod); Dizem Ertac Varoglu (EcoMod and Near East University)
    Abstract: This article investigates environmental and energy policies that Turkey needs to adopt on its way to a sustainable development path. A multi-sectoral CGE model is developed to analyze the effects of several environmental and energy policy scenarios available for the Turkish economy to attain a low-carbon society with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports. Domestic energy demand has significantly increased in Turkey over the past decades, and this has put a lot of pressure on policymakers as the economy greatly depends on imports of natural gas and oil as far as current energy consumption is concerned. The CGE model used in this study is based on an energy-disaggregated Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), constructed in previous work by the authors. The energy-disaggregated SAM serves as the benchmark database and the high disaggregation of the energy commodities and the electricity sector to include 8 different types of power generating sectors (5 of which are renewable energy sources) enables electric power substitution in the model. The energy-disaggregated SAM is further linked with satellite accounts which include data on derived energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The macroeconomic and environmental impacts of three distinct sets of scenarios are analyzed with respect to the baseline scenario. The first scenario simulates a 30% increase in energy efficiency in the production sectors and the residential sector and evidence is found for reaching the 21% GHG mitigation target set in Turkey’s pledge for Paris Agreement compliance by 2030. The second set of scenarios is the inclusion of a medium and high-level carbon tax rates for coal, oil and natural gas. The carbon tax scenarios produce significant effects on both emission reduction targets and substituting fossil fuel technologies with cleaner energy technologies. The third scenario estimates the effects of changes in world prices of energy on the Turkish economy. A 20% increase in world energy prices, i.e. oil, natural gas, and coal, induces substantial changes in the breakdown of TPES and the power-generating sector and puts a lot of pressure on the current account deficit of the country. A carbon tax policy proves to be the most viable scenario which leads to reduced energy intensities in all sectors, a 21% GHG emissions abatement, and a transformation of the energy sector towards having a low-carbon content along with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports.
    Date: 2022–12–20
  3. By: Seraj Bahrawi (Al-Baha University); Mohammed Abulkhair (Al-Baha University); Sami Mensi (Univ. of Manouba & ECSTRA Laboratory)
    Abstract: The outbreak of COVID-19, labeled as a black swan event, causes significant damage globally due to its fatality. The COVID-19 pandemic has expanded across the world by creating shocks in almost all the industries due to the restrictions, curfews, stay-home and work-from-home policies, and quarantines. As a result of the health and economic crisis with the COVID-19 pandemic, the tourism sector got severely affected. The UNWTO has estimated a loss of approximately 1.1 billion international tourist arrivals, with a loss of US$ 910 to 1.1 trillion export revenues and 100-120 million jobs due to the wider spread of the novel coronavirus. Therefore, this paper aims to determine the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the tourism industry in the world and in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This article adopts the financial data of listed companies in Saudi Arabia and uses the synthetic index compilation method to compile an accounting index that captures the period before and during the Covid-19 outbreak and measures the impact of the Covid-19 on the tourism sector. From this article, we recommend the appropriate policies to re-launch some tourism activities within the after Covid-19 period. It will be crucial to restore all types of travel, and domestic and international flights, improve direct and indirect employment and the recovery of many related business as travel agencies, hotels, and airline companies, which allow for economic and social benefits
    Date: 2022–12–20
  4. By: Najah Souissi-Kachouri (University of Tunis El Manar); Meriem Guizani-Jelassi (University of Tunis El Manar)
    Abstract: This paper aims to study the effect of decentralization on corruption in the MENA region during the period 2001-19. We adopt the model of Fisman and Gatti (2002) and use two econometric methods: the instrumental variable method and the system Generalized Method of Moments (system GMM method). Firstly, we show that decentralization in these economies favors rent-seeking behavior and cannot be a mechanism to fight corruption. This result is robust for these two estimation methods and different corruption and decentralization indicators. Secondly, we introduce an interactive variable to the baseline model, which links the indicator of decentralization to that of transparency in public procurement. Likewise, we estimate this model by using the instrumental variable method and the system GMM method. We show that a threshold level of transparency in public procurement is necessary for successful decentralization and the reduction of corruption in MENA countries. This result is robust for the two estimation methods and different corruption and decentralization indicators.
    Date: 2022–12–20
  5. By: Walid Matar; Doaa Filali (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: After cement production in Saudi Arabia surged in the first half of the 2010s due to the country’s rapid economic development, it has slowed measurably in recent years as economic growth has declined. This is shown in Figure 1, along with the evolution of the Kingdom’s real gross domestic income (RGDI). Still, it ranks among the top 10 countries for existing cement kiln capacity. The Saudi cement industry has relied on Arab Heavy crude oil, heavy fuel oil (HFO), and natural gas to produce clinker, a key cement ingredient.
    Keywords: Applied general model, Bottom up model, Coal bed methane, Deep water
    Date: 2022–06–23
  6. By: Dina Kassab (Cairo University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the monetary-fiscal interaction in Egypt for the period 2001Q1 to 2020Q2, a period that includes several reform programs, the 2011 revolution but also the global financial and the Covid-crises. Markov-switching regression methods are employed to estimate fiscal and monetary policy feedback rules in Egypt and the overlay of the smoothed probabilities is used, in the spirit of Davig and Leeper (2007), to show the estimated timing of the joint monetary-fiscal regime and depict its evolution. A sign restricted vector autoregression (SRVAR) model is then used to analyze the effects of different potential fiscal-monetary policy mixes, similar to those undertaken by different governments the during the coronavirus pandemic, on macro variables in Egypt. Three main findings emerge from the analysis. First, fiscal policy in Egypt always responds to government debt, although the magnitude of this response differs throughout the periods. Second, regime-switches in monetary and fiscal policy rules do not exhibit any degree of synchronization which represents a novel way of tracking the time-series behaviour of government debt and inflation in Egypt. Third, the effect of a fiscal stimulus on real consumption and GDP in Egypt does not outlive the stimulus due to a Ricardian Equivalence effect, where agents expect higher future taxes to finance deficits resulting from the stimulus. This effect can be mitigated with an accommodating monetary policy, at the expense however of inflationary pressures that inflation targeting central bank will have to face.
    Date: 2022–12–20
  7. By: Joelle M. Abi-Rached (Harvard University); Ishac Diwan (Finance for Development Lab, Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper examines public budgets (tax revenues and expenditure patterns) in Lebanon and the four Syrian states that were created during the French Mandate (1920-1943). To do so, we reconstruct fiscal accounts through the annual reports to the Permanent Mandates Commission that the French authorities were required to publish. We then focus on the educational policies and achievement of the French Mandate in Lebanon. Our empirical work reveals clearly (i) how the French authorities used funds raised through local taxes to finance the French military and its security apparatus rather than infrastructure and social services; (ii) that education and health were made the prerogatives of private and missionary endeavors; and (iii) that a consequence of this laissez-faire policy was a private educational system tilted towards the education of Christians with a startlingly underserved Muslim population. We also compare these budgets with other French colonies in Africa and Asia. This sheds additional light on the rudimentary developmental effort that characterized French rule. What transpires is that compared to the North African colonies, the Mandate's economy in Lebanon was over-taxed, but that a smaller part of these revenues was spent on development. It is precisely this lack of strong public foundations of the state that put Lebanon on a path of privatization of essential social services.
    Date: 2022–12–20
  8. By: Krane, J.
    Abstract: Saudi Arabia’s stated goal of reaching net zero by 2060 puts the kingdom in a paradoxical position. The Saudi leadership proposes to decarbonize an oil-intensive society and economy while selling oil to the world. As such, the credibility of the Saudi commitment will remain an open question until concrete progress toward restructuring the kingdom’s energy system is demonstrated. Modest initial steps toward net zero include investments in renewables alongside pricing reforms of energy products and services. Another ongoing push involves oil-to-gas switching in the kingdom’s power sector, which can be augmented by carbon capture and storage and, eventually, gas-to-hydrogen substitution. Doubts and difficulties aside, Saudi Arabia holds major advantages in decarbonization. These include unused land with copious solar radiation, as well as geological storage near carbon emissions clusters. The kingdom is also equipped with relevant knowledge and investment capital. Fully compensating for reduced oil export rents may not be possible if worldwide carbon neutrality plans come to fruition. Despite the short-term benefits of high energy prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, economic and geopolitical decline is a likely medium-term outcome for the kingdom. However, there are also opportunities including replacing oil revenues with those arising from carbon disposal for countries and firms lacking the kingdom’s competitive advantages.
    Keywords: Saudi Arabia, Net Zero 2060, decarbonization, oil and natural gas, Saudi Aramco, greenhouse gas (GHG), carbon dioxide (CO2), emissions offsets, renewables, hydrogen, energy subsidy reform, carbon intensity, carbon capture and storage (CCS), emissions clusters, credible commitment, Paris Agreement NDC, climate pledge, peak oil demand, Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions
    JEL: Q01 Q4 P16 P18 Q32 Q35 Q38 Q54 Q58 H23
    Date: 2023–01–12
  9. By: Mounir Mahmalat (The Policy Initiative); Sami Atallah (Founding director of The Policy Initiative); Wassim Maktabi (Researcher at The Policy Initiative)
    Abstract: Power-sharing arrangements not only allocate political power but also economic resources from valuable state functions among powerful elites. Two broad hypotheses emerge from existing literature for how elites allocate such resources. Elites would either distribute the control over valuable institutions or share the rents they generate. This article investigates which mechanism prevails by focusing on a major source of such resources: public procurement of large infrastructure projects. We analyze an original dataset of infrastructure procurement contracts in Lebanon and investigate which politically connected firms receive larger contracts than nonconnected firms. We find that firms receive inflated contracts only when they are connected to elites with a “seat at the table” at the board of the implementing agency, rather than the wider set of powerful political elites. We argue that resource distribution depends on elites’ access to important institutional functions, rather than other conceivable mechanisms of resource sharing. By penetrating key positions with loyal personnel, elites serve as brokers in collusive networks, or cartels, that succeed in undermining a process as complex as infrastructure procurement
    Date: 2022–12–20
  10. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Egypt exhibited resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic shock following timely policy response supported by the 2020 Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) and 2020–21 Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). While performance under the SBA was strong, the immediate health crisis delayed efforts to re-invigorate much needed structural reforms while high public debt vulnerabilities continued to expose the country to changes in global financial conditions and investor sentiments. As economic recovery gained momentum during FY2021/22, imbalances also started building amidst a stabilized exchange rate. The outbreak of Russia’s war on Ukraine crystallized pre-existing pressures, giving way to capital outflows and large reserves losses while high commodity prices led to rising inflation. Trade spillovers have also been significant given Egypt’s dependence on Russia and Ukraine for wheat and tourism. In October, the authorities took bold policy actions to unwind prior policy distortions including a shift to a flexible exchange rate while taking measures to help shield the Egyptian population from a mounting cost-of-living crisis. But global uncertainty casts a long shadow on Egypt’s recovery and the longstanding need for advancing deep structural reforms to spur sustainable, inclusive, and job-rich growth remains.
    Date: 2023–01–10
  11. By: Hatem Jemmali (University of Manouba); Rabeh Morrar (An-Najah National University); Fernando Rios-Avila (Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson)
    Abstract: This paper examines the changes in wage inequality over the period 2009-16 in Palestine's labor market. The wage inequality, assessed by the Gini coefficient, the bottom and upper quintiles, and the middle inter-quintiles, is found to be in an increasing trend over years. Using an intertemporal decomposition approach, we decompose the changes in wage inequality into a composition effect explained by changes in demographic and labor market characteristics, and a wage structure effect attributable to unequal returns to those characteristics. We find evidence that the composition effect – explained by changes in industry composition, region, and refugee status – dominates the wage structure effect in explaining the rise of wage inequality over the first two years. Instead, the results indicate that the wage structure effect of age and discrimination against female workers has a significant and positive contribution to the increase of the Gini coefficient and the upper quintile over the remaining years of the period.
    Date: 2022–12–20
  12. By: Said El Atiek (PSB - Paris School of Business - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université); Stéphane Goutte (Université Paris-Saclay)
    Abstract: The Russian airplane crash in 2015 has severely affected the tourism industry in Egypt. The present article is focused on the impacts of economic, political, and social impacts on Egyptian tourism after this crisis. The present study aimed at dealing with the crisis to mitigate the consequences and allow the companies to make the best use of it to restore their business. The present article has also discussed the crisis impacts on the financial situation of company A which is one of the top five hospitality companies in Egypt. Crisis management and investments in human resources were the most effective strategies to overcome the harsh consequences of the crisis on tourism sector. The present study data is based on the Egyptian ministry of tourism figures, internet, articles, and international channels reports aimed to explain how the political, social, and economic events had a negative impact on the hotel industry in Egypt.
    Keywords: Egypt Russian air plane Sharm El-Sheikh Tourism crisis Economic impact Political impact social imact, Egypt, Russian air plane, Sharm El-Sheikh, Tourism crisis, Economic impact, Political impact, social imact
    Date: 2023–01–01
  13. By: Asma Jamil Rashid (Baghdad University, Iraq); Zahraa Ali
    Abstract: This study attempts to explore the meaning, content and importance of women's participation in the October Uprising by providing insights that help explain and analyze the complex conditions of women in Iraq and analyze the social, economic and political context and its repercussions on their lives, including gender disparities. The study relies on a group of field and analytical research conducted by the two researchers to investigate the situation of women in Iraq and in various fields, in addition to field research that dealt with the participation of women in the October protests. It is based on available quantitative and qualitative data to analyze the differences between the sexes. Instead of dealing with the concept of inequalities in a limited sense (i.e., as differences between women and men), this study uses an approach that relies on relational feminist theory - or intersectionality - with a focus on the social history of women and the feminist political economy because of the latter's ability to provide an understanding of the nature of the complex relationship between structures. Social, political, and economic power, resources, access to it, and the person responsible for it, as well as his ability to highlight gender inequalities as one of the reasons that provided for the involvement of women, especially from the young generation, in the protest act, even if he was not the driving force behind this act. In addition to feminist political economy and the common dimension, this research uses the concept of (space production) by Henri Lefebvre in analyzing the protests and their gender dimension. We will employ this concept to emphasize the fact that space is a product of a society that is experienced, conceived and perceived together. According to the sociologist Henri Lefebvre, the social space is socially produced and constructed, and cannot be reduced to its physical construction, nor to economic production, but rather it is developed through a social, material and mental dynamic, which is the fruit of collective values and representations that are experienced, imagined and understood. Lefevre also theorized the concept of marginal social spaces of impossibility, in which revolutionary social imaginations and utopias emerge from people's spontaneous actions rather than through a conscious plan. Henri Lefevre argued that it is not the revolutionary movement that produces space but the discontinuity of the spaces themselves that creates something different and a substitute for the dominant force. The public space is the place for negotiation of the values, ideologies and norms that form the "social contract" of a society. The occupation of space itself allows the individuals who participate in it to contribute to the formation and negotiation of this contract
    Date: 2022–12–20
  14. By: Ufuk Akcigit (University of Chicago, CEPR, and NBER, United States); Unal Seven (Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye); Ibrahim Yarba (Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye); Fatih Yilmaz (Faculté des sciences économiques et de gestion de Tunis, Université El-Manar-Tunisie Title: Firm-Level Impact of Public Credit Guarantees)
    Abstract: This paper studies the firm-level short-term impact of one of the world’s largest credit guarantee programs recently implemented in Türkiye. Using a combination of firm-level administrative databases of the tax registry, credit registry, and the credit guarantee fund (CGF) registry, we analyze the characteristics of the CGF-supported firms and the program’s impact on their employment, sales, and credit default probability. We find that the CGF program on average had a positive impact on the performance of treated firms. The CGF-supported firms were able to increase their employment by 17 percent and sales by 70 percent while these firms reduced their credit default probability by 0.6 percentage point relative to their matched-control group. Evaluating our estimation results at variable averages shows that every 1 million TL credit generated via the CGF program preserved 2.7 extra employment and stimulated about 3 million TL in sales. We also observe an overall increase in firm indebtedness, which may adversely affect firms’ long-term financial health. Moreover, our findings reveal that the program impact is heterogeneous across firm size and sector groups. Using this heterogeneity, we perform counterfactual policy exercises indicating that redesigning the program with such priorities can bring substantial efficiency gains.
    Date: 2022–12–20
  15. By: Moeeni, Safoura; Wei, Feng
    Abstract: We estimate the effects of unobserved skills on labor market outcomes by investigating a change in the distribution of unobserved skills. Among people with the same levels of observed skills such as education and work experience, there are still disparities in labor market outcomes. since employers cannot observe all applicantsâ skills and productivity, they rely on the average skills of different groups. We exploit a discontinuity generated by the 2012 education policy in Iran. This policy restricting female students in specific college majors changes the size and skill distribution of high school graduates. We find three main findings. First, the education quota lowers women's college attendance. Second, young high-school graduate women are more likely to participate in the labor market and have a job. Third, the gender wage gap decreases among high-school workers due to both within and between occupation changes: treated women are paid more and they take up higher-paying middle-skilled positions that used to be non-traditional occupations for them.
    Keywords: Unobserved Skills, Occupational Choice, Education Quota, Gender Discrimination, Wage differentials
    Date: 2022
  16. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Lebanon’s tax revenue more than halved between 2019 and 2021, in the face of the deepest economic crisis since the end of the civil war. This report identifies tax policy reform options to stop the drain on Lebanon’s tax revenue in the immediate and near-terms and to move toward a more efficient, effective, and inclusive tax system in the medium-term.
    Keywords: Tax Reform Crisis and Taxation VAT Efficiency Inequality
    Date: 2023–01–13
  17. By: Hala Abdallah (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Selma Tozanli (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes); Fatima F. El Hadad-Gauthier (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Salem Darwich (Faculté d’Agronomie - Université Libanaise)
    Date: 2021–07–06
  18. By: Hajer Habib (Faculté des sciences économiques et de gestion de Tunis, Université El-Manar-Tunisie)
    Abstract: Cet article vise à analyser empiriquement le rôle des envois de fonds des migrants dans l’allégement des oscillations du PIB réel induites par la variabilité météorologique détectée par les changements annuels moyens des précipitations et de la température subis par un ensemble des pays d’Afrique du nord entre 1980 et 2016. Nous utilisons un modèle autorégressif vectoriel sur des données de panel (PVAR) afin d’autoriser les interactions endogènes entre les variables du modèle et de contourner le problème d’une faible taille des séries en combinant les dimensions spatiale et temporelle. Nos résultats visent à montrer d'une part l'impact négatif de la variabilité météorologique interannuelle sur le PIB réel par habitant. Une légère diminution de ce dernier mais reste statistiquement significative de 0.2% et 0.13% lors des chocs respectivement des précipitations et de la température. Ceci est principalement dû à la stabilité du climat dans la région pendant les dernières décennies. D'autre part, les envois de fonds enregistrent une contribution à l’ordre de 3.7% aux fluctuations du PIB. Ces envois peuvent être utilisés comme un coussin sur la stabilité macroéconomique des pays affectés négativement par les conditions météorologiques. Ils se caractérisent par des schémas contracycliques qui augmentent l’adaptabilité et la résistance face aux aléas. En conséquence, les politiques futures doivent être plus rigoureusement focalisé sur les politiques d'adaptation et d'investir dans les technologies vertes qui atténuent les conséquences négatives de la météo annuelle et des changements climatiques à long terme.
    Date: 2022–12–20

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