nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2023‒01‒09
seventeen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Turkish and Iranian involvement in Iraq and Syria: Competing strategies, rising threat perceptions, and potentials for conflict By Azizi, Hamidreza; Çevik, Salim
  2. Amidst refugee flows, irregular migration, and authoritarianism: The politics of citizenship in Turkey By Yeğen, Mesut
  3. Child Growth and Refugee Status: Evidence from Syrian Migrants in Turkey By Murat Demirci; Andrew D. Foster; Murat G. Kirdar
  4. Post-2023 election scenarios in Turkey By Esen, Berk
  5. Phenomenon of "anti-territorial" intelligence or the territory as a "de-construction" of actors: Problematic and criticism of Territorial Intelligence in Morocco By Mouad Lamrabet; Taoufik Benkaraache
  6. The opposition alliance in Turkey: A viable alternative to Erdoğan? By Esen, Berk
  7. The Economic Gains of closing the Employment Gender Gap: Evidence from Morocco By Olivier Bargain; Maria Lo Bue
  8. The Arab Region's Unemployment Problem Revisited By Riadh Ben Jelili
  9. The challenge of decarbonisation and EU-Turkey trade relations: A long-term perspective By Tastan, Kadri
  10. Climate change and its impact on water consumption in Tunisia: Evidence from ARDL approach By Mkaddem, Chamseddine; Mahjoubi, Soufiane
  11. The spoilers of Darfur: Sudan's protracted political crisis and the intensifying violence in Darfur are closely connected By Kurtz, Gerrit
  12. Tourism in Arab South Mediterranean Countries: The Competitiveness Challenge By Riadh Ben Jelili
  13. Ride-hailing versus traditional taxi services the experiences of taxi drivers in Lebanon By Yassin, Jad,; Rani, Uma,
  14. Impact of climate change on yield production in Algeria: evidence from ARDL empirical approach By Mahjoubi, Soufiane; Mkaddem, Chamseddine
  15. Conventional and Corrected Measures of Gender-related Development Index (GDI): What Happens to the Arab Countries Ranking? By Riadh Ben Jelili
  16. Components of Industry Resilience to Maintain Sustainable Economic Growth under COVID-19 Within the Knowledge-Based Economy Frame-work: A Comparative Study Between Iran and South Korea By Asaadi, Marzieh
  17. AB'nin İnsan Hakları Sorumluluklarını Yerine Getirmedeki Başarısızlığı: AB İnsan Hakları Özel Temsilcisi'nin BM'de Yapmış Olduğu Açıklama By Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul

  1. By: Azizi, Hamidreza; Çevik, Salim
    Abstract: It has become cliché to argue that Turkish-Iranian relations oscillate between a controlled rivalry and limited cooperation. However, in Iraq and Syria, rising tensions between Turkey and Turkey-affiliated groups on the one hand and Iran and Iran-backed groups on the other, have put the two countries on a collision course. Conflictual relations between Turkey and Iran have the potential to destabilise the Middle East and the South Caucasus, spawning additional security risks as well as waves of migration towards Europe. Such a situation could also complicate matters related to European energy security. Europe should remain alert and help to ease tensions through deescalation mechanisms. In this regard, efforts to strengthen Iraqi sovereignty may serve as a preemptive measure.
    Keywords: Iraq,Syria,Turkey,Iran,rivalry,cooperation,Middle East,South Caucasus,European energy security,PKK,Kurdish question
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Yeğen, Mesut
    Abstract: With the background of the Syrian crisis, irregular migration, and authoritarianism - strengthened by the collapse of the Peace Process of the Turkish state with the Workers' Party of Kurdistan (PKK) in 2015 and the 2016 coup attempt - the Turkish government has amended the Citizenship Law, changed policies concerning refugees and irregular migrants, and re-designed access to basic citizenship rights in the last decade. Due to these amendments and changes, tens of thousands of Syrians have been awarded Turkish citizenship. A few millions of them are now settled in Turkey and exercising social and education rights without being Turkish citizens. This state of affairs contradicts previous Turkish policies for citizenship and supports the claims that the government under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been constructing a more Islamic and less secular Turkish nationhood. Concomitantly, the basic citizenship rights of Kurds and members of the Gulen community have been massively violated. This indicates that being Muslim or Turkish does not protect citizens from discrimination.
    Keywords: Turkey,Citizenship Law,Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP),Workers' Party of Kurdistan (PKK),Justice and Development Party (AKP),Gulen community,Kurds,Turkification,Syrians,Afghans,refugees,migrants
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Murat Demirci (Department of Economics, Koc University); Andrew D. Foster (Department of Economics and Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University); Murat G. Kirdar (Department of Economics, Bogazici University and Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University)
    Abstract: This study examines disparities in health and nutrition among native and Syrian-refugee children in Turkey. With a view toward understanding the need for targeted programs addressing child well-being among the refugee population, we analyze, in particular, the Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS). The TDHS is one of few data sets providing representative data on health and nutrition for a large refugee and native population. We find no evidence of a difference in infant or child mortality between refugee children born in Turkey and native children. However, refugee infants born in Turkey have lower birthweight and age-adjusted weight and height than native infants. When we account for a rich set of birth and socioeconomic characteristics that display substantial differences between natives and refugees, the gaps in birthweight and age-adjusted height persist, but the gap in age-adjusted weight disappears. Although refugee infants close the weight gap at the mean over time, the gap at the lower end of the distribution persists. The rich set of covariates we use explains about 35% of the baseline difference in birthweight and more than half of the baseline difference in current height. However, even after that, refugee infants’ average birthweight is 0.17 standard deviations (sd) lower and their current height is 0.23 sd lower. These gaps are even larger for refugee infants born prior to migrating to Turkey, suggesting that remaining deficits reflect conditions in the source country prior to migration rather than deficits in access to maternal and child health services within Turkey.
    Keywords: Syrian refugees, birthweight, anthropometric measures, forced displacement, Turkey.
    JEL: J61 O15 F22 R23 R58
    Date: 2022–12
  4. By: Esen, Berk
    Abstract: Millions of Turkish voters are geared up for the twin (parliamentary and presidential) elections that are scheduled to take place in June 2023 at the latest. After nearly 20 years in power, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's rule may seem unassailable to many observers of Turkish politics. However, owing to the economic downturn and rifts in his ruling party, this will be the first election in which Erdoğan is not the clear favourite. Six opposition parties of different ideological origins have come together to pick a joint presidential candidate to stand against Erdoğan and to offer a common platform for restoring parliamentary democracy. Although the opposition alliance has reasonable chances of defeating Erdoğan's ruling bloc, their victory would not guarantee a smooth process of transition to parliamentary democracy. If the opposition can defeat Erdoğan, the new government would need to undertake the arduous tasks of establishing a meritocratic bureaucracy, restructuring Turkey's diplomatic course and economic policy, and switching back to parliamentary rule. Due to the opposition alliance's diverse composition, accomplishing these goals may be as difficult as winning the elections.
    Keywords: Turkey,parliamentary and presidential elections,Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,Justice and Development Party (AKP),Nationalist Movement Party (MHP),Nation Alliance,Future Party (GP),Ahmet Davutoğlu,Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA),Ali Babacan
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Mouad Lamrabet (Laboratoire de Recherche en Intelligence Stratégique - UH2MC - Université Hassan II [Casablanca]); Taoufik Benkaraache (Laboratoire de Recherche en Intelligence Stratégique - UH2MC - Université Hassan II [Casablanca])
    Abstract: Territorial intelligence is an eminent concept of development. Its three pillars are information, communication and territorial knowledge. The scientific, and above all, practical objective behind this research is to highlight a territorial phenomenon thathas been imperceptible in Morocco until now: the phenomenon of anti-territorial intelligence. To do this, we have mobilized an inductive qualitative empirical approach. It is the method of participant observation resulting from practical research. First, we induced the phenomenon of anti-territorial intelligence from the case of the Drâa-Tafilalet territory. 28 essential anti-territorial intelligence practices have been identified. Then afterwards, the extrapolation of the phenomenon took place on the basis of the analysis of the most notable experiences that qualify as territorial intelligence in Morocco. The guiding axiom of our research is: "Ineluctably, either we are in a territorial intelligence, or we are in an anti-territorial intelligence". As a last resort, we proposed the definition of territorial intelligence suitable for the Moroccan context, and this on the basis of a review of literature Scoping Review PRISMA-Scr including 176 references. The ultimate objective of this work is to encourage the adoption of territorial intelligence among territorial actors in Morocco.
    Abstract: L'intelligence territoriale est un concept éminent du développement. Ses trois éléments piliers sont l'information, la communication et la connaissance territoriale. L'objectif scientifique et surtout pratique derrière cette recherche est de mettre en relief un phénomène territorial jusqu'aujourd'hui imperceptible au Maroc : le phénomène de l'intelligence anti-territoriale. Pour ce faire, nous avons mobilisé une approche empirique qualitative inductive. Il s'agit de la méthode de l'observation participante issue d'une recherche pratique. Premièrement, nous avons induit le phénomène de l'intelligence anti-territoriale à partir du cas du territoire Drâa-Tafilalet. 28 pratiques essentielles d'intelligence anti-territoriale ont été identifiées. Puis après, l'extrapolation du phénomène a eu lieu sur la base de l'analyse des expériences les plus notables qui se qualifient d'intelligence territoriale au Maroc. L'axiome directeur de notre recherche est: « Inéluctablement, ou bien on est dans une intelligence territoriale, ou bien on est dans une intelligence anti-territoriale ». En dernier ressort, nous avons proposé la définition de l'intelligence territoriale convenable pour le contexte marocain, et ce, sur la base d'une revue de littérature Scoping Review PRISMA-Scr comprenant 176 références. L'objectif ultime de ce travail est d'encourager l'adoption de l'intelligence territoriale auprès des acteurs territoriaux au Maroc.
    Keywords: anti-territorial intelligence,Territoire,intelligence anti-territoriale,Intelligence territoriale
    Date: 2022–10–30
  6. By: Esen, Berk
    Abstract: In a remarkable development for Turkish politics, six opposition parties signed a joint manifesto at a public ceremony on 28 February. The document outlines plans to abolish the executive presidential system and restore rule of law and civil liberties under a "strengthened parliamentary system". The successive concentration of power in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's hands has culminated in a hyper-presidential system without meaningful institutional checks. The opposition parties are determined to reverse this process by offering the electorate an alternative political platform supported by a single presidential candidate. If their cooperation generates a pre-electoral alliance for the upcoming elections, the opposition camp dubbed the "Table of Six" has a reasonable chance of defeating Erdoğan and his governing bloc.
    Keywords: opposition alliance,Turkey,Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,Justice and Development Party (AKP),National Action Party (MHP),presidential elections
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Olivier Bargain (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Maria Lo Bue
    Abstract: The present paper sheds new light on the growth implications of gender inequalities in the Moroccan labour market. We confront two different approaches. The first one is based on firm data to estimate gender complementarity in production and uses this information for simulations based on a simple macroeconomic model. The second relies on country panel variation to relate growth to the relative employment of women and, also, suggest simulations for Morocco. Both approaches lead to similar conclusions regarding the potential economic gains from increased female participation in this country. This paper is one of the rare attempts to elicit the growth potential of a reduction in the employment gap in a low-income country.
    Keywords: Morocco, Female labour force participation, Gender employment gap, Growth, aggregate production function, Constant elasticity of substitution, Firm data
    Date: 2022–12–09
  8. By: Riadh Ben Jelili (LEGO - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion de l'Ouest - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO - Université de Brest - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IBSHS - Institut Brestois des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société - UBO - Université de Brest - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris])
    Abstract: The Arab world is confronted with an increasing pressure coming from the supply side of the labor market, generated principally by the unemployed persons looking for a job, the new entrants on the labor market and the expected increase of the women labor force participation rate. This pressure is compounded by structural considerations relating to the slow labor productivity growth, low demand for skills, slow and erratic domestic investment growth, low attractiveness of foreign direct investment and high dependency on the dynamics of the international oil market as well as labor migration. This working paper examines the main trends in the Arab labor market affecting both supply and demand of the labor force, and presents an overall assessment of the active labor market programs adopted in some Arab countries. It also presents some programs and policies aiming to enhance employment opportunities of Arab youth.
    Date: 2022–11–05
  9. By: Tastan, Kadri
    Abstract: The implementation of the European Union's (EU) Green Deal to reduce emissions by 2030 and to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 will have an impact on the EU's trade policy and on its trade relations with its non-EU partners. With the ongoing decarbonisation process of European economic sectors, the EU's climate policy will be increasingly integrated into its trade policy through measures such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and by strengthening the environment chapters of its trade agreements. Therefore, the debate on the future of Turkey-EU trade relations should focus on future prospects for decarbonisation and trade if both sides are keen to maintain or deepen their trade relations. In the current context, which is rife with geopolitical and energy security considerations, a long-term vision and a holistic approach are needed now more than ever.
    Keywords: Green Deal,Decarbonisation,Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism,CBAM,Nationally Determined Contributions,NDCs,Customs Union,Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership,TTIP,EU Emissions Trading System,Turkey
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Mkaddem, Chamseddine; Mahjoubi, Soufiane
    Abstract: This study aims to explore the link between weather and bottled water consumption in Tunisia using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) between 1995 and 2020. Ours results show that the precipitation and labor rates in the three sectors have an impact in the short and long term. An increase of 1°C in temperature in the short term leads to an increase in consumption of more than 4 liters of bottled water. However, 1 % more rainfall means a decrease in long-term bottled water consumption of about a quarter of a liter. While in the short term the effect is mixed (both positive and negative). Temperature further increases bottled water consumption in rural areas and among climate-exposed professions.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Bottled water, water consumption, ARDL, Tunisia
    JEL: C22 Q25 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2022–12
  11. By: Kurtz, Gerrit
    Abstract: The Juba Peace Agreement of October 2020 has not pacified conflicts in Sudan, and has instead actually created new alliances between armed groups and security forces. After decades of marginalisation, conflict entrepreneurs from the periphery are now shaping Sudan's national politics and undermining the country's potential to return to democratic transition. Insecurity in Darfur could escalate and contribute to further destabilisation of the country. International donors should pressure these conflict entrepreneurs to relinquish power. They should also prudently promote projects to foster peace in Darfur at the same time.
    Keywords: Darfur,Sudan,Juba Peace Agreement (JBA),Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF),General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan,Rapid Support Forces (RSF),Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti),UN-AU Mission in Darfur (UNAMID)
    Date: 2022
  12. By: Riadh Ben Jelili (LEGO - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion de l'Ouest - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO - Université de Brest - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IBSHS - Institut Brestois des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société - UBO - Université de Brest - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris])
    Date: 2022–11–05
  13. By: Yassin, Jad,; Rani, Uma,
    Abstract: Abstract.
    Date: 2022
  14. By: Mahjoubi, Soufiane; Mkaddem, Chamseddine
    Abstract: This study attempts to assess the impact of climate changes factors, such as average rainfall and average temperature on cereal production in Algeria from 1990 to 2019. We employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) simulations techniques and Granger causality test to estimate the long and short-term effects of climate change variables. The results showed that the rainfall, agricultural technology, agricultural labour, and cultivation of land enhance cereal output. The long-run ARDL model results provides that the temperature does not impact on cereal productivity. The findings provided by Granger causality tests also suggest that there is a unidirectional relationship between cereal production, climatic variables, and non-climate factors. The ARDL technique provides a better methodology to understanding of the variability of cereal production in Algeria as a result of climate factors.
    Keywords: Climate change, crop production, ARDL approach, Granger causality, Algeria
    JEL: C22 Q18 Q54
    Date: 2022–12
  15. By: Riadh Ben Jelili (LEGO - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion de l'Ouest - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO - Université de Brest - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IBSHS - Institut Brestois des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société - UBO - Université de Brest - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris])
    Abstract: The Gender-related Development Index (GDI) developed by the United nations Development Program has been one of the first global instrument to demonstrate that the level of gender equality in a country is not solely dependent upon a country's economic performance. However, the GDI is still closely tied to a country's gross domestic product. Moreover, Population share of the genders enter the formulation of this indicator in such a way that it favors the better performing gender. In the present note, we implement the corrections proposed by Bardhan and Klasen (1999), Mishra and Nathan (2008) and Nathan (2008) to capture this anomaly.
    Date: 2022–11–05
  16. By: Asaadi, Marzieh (Golestan University)
    Abstract: COVID-19 was first reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and spread rapidly across the globe. Then on March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic, causing more than 600 million confirmed cases and 6.49 million deaths around the world so far. The effects of the pandemic on societies can be examined mainly by two criteria: 1) the number of lives lost due to the disease (Mortality Rate), and 2) the number of jobs lost due to social distancing rules (fall in GDP). Both have a wide consequence for economic growth and other key macroeconomic indicators. An important explanatory factor for the significant difference between Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for Iran and Korea can be related to the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) components (Daliri and Asaadi 2021). The WGI is a composite index consisting of six measurement factors, including voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, the rule of law, and control of corruption. Furthermore, another critical factor is COVID-19 governance which can be monitored by calculating Government Stringency Index. This index is a composite measure based on several indicators which monitor the state of lockdowns and social distancing and range to values between 0-100, while 100 presents the most restrictive. In addition to the governance of COVID-19, from the perspective of public health and lives saved, maintaining jobs and supporting the resilience of industries to achieve SEG has been another important concern for nations and governments worldwide. As stated by Bernanke (2020), it is widely believed that the global economic crisis caused by COVID-19 is different from past crises in terms of cause, scope, and severity that suddenly disrupted economic activity. These necessitate research on the potential determination factors influencing the response of countries, companies, and individuals to the COVID-19 crisis. The key to ensure Business Continuity and SEG is to identify factors that increase the resilience of businesses under COVID-19 circumstances and other potential public health crises. Theoretical and empirical studies confirm that three main explanatory factors are at play
    Keywords: Components of Industry Resilience; COVID-19 Within the Knowledge-Based Economy Framework
    Date: 2022–11–10
  17. By: Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul (Center For Eurasian Studies (AVİM))
    Abstract: BM Genel Kurulu, 18 Aralık 1992 tarihinde, Ulusal veya Etnik, Dini ve Dilsel Azınlıklara Mensup Kişilerin Haklarına Dair Bildiri’yi 47/135 sayılı Karar ile, oylama yapılmaksızın, kabul etmiştir. Bildiri’nin 30’uncu yıldönümünün kutlanması vesilesiyle, 21 Eylül 2022 tarihinde AB New York’ta bir açıklama yapmıştır. AB Özel Temsilcisi’nin bu husustaki açıklamada, ciddi insan hakları ihlallerinden ve günümüzde dünya çapında öneme sahip insan hakları ihlallerin örneklerinden söz ettiği sırada, uluslararası çaptaki ağır insan hakları ihlalleriyle bir bağlantısı olmayan “Türkiye’deki Rum azınlığına karşı geçmişte yapılan ayrımcılık” iddiasını dile getirmesi, en hafif nitelendirme ile, hayret vericidir. AB İnsan Hakları Özel Temsilcisi Eamon Gilmore’un açıklamasındaki söz konusu cümlenin, Türkiye’ye karşı uygulamakta olduğu karalama kampanyası için AB’yi bir araç olarak kullanmayı alışkanlık haline getirmiş olan Yunanistan’ın ısrarı sonucu açıklamaya eklendiğine şüphe yoktur. AB İnsan Hakları Özel Temsilcisi’nin BM’de yapmış olduğu açıklamada, Yunan yetkilileri tarafından kendisine dayatılan Türkiye’de azınlık statüsüne sahip Yunan Ortodoks Türk vatandaşlarına dair iddiaları uygun biçimde incelemeden öne sürmüş olması üzücüdür. Özel Temsilci’nin görev tanımı, AB üyesi ülkelerindeki insan hakları ihlalleriyle ilgilenme yetkisinin olmadığını göstermektedir. Özel Temsilci’nin, üye ülkelerdeki belirli azınlıklara karşı yapılan insan hakları ihlallerine dair bilgi sahibi olursa, Yunanistan gibi bazı üye ülkeler tarafından kendisine dayatılabilecek sorunlu meseleleri öne çıkartma konusunda daha dikkatli davranabileceği varsayılmaktadır.
    Date: 2022–11–23

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