nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2022‒10‒03
thirteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Factors of foreign direct investment inwards: The case of Saudi Arabia By Majed Alharthi
  2. The hydrogen ambitions of the Gulf States: Achieving economic diversification while maintaining power By Ansari, Dawud
  3. The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Circular Carbon Economy: Progress and Potential By Mari Luomi; Fatih Yilmaz; Thamir Alshehri
  4. Turkey's military operations in Syria and Iraq By Çevik, Salim
  5. Deciphering Turkey's geopolitical balancing and Anti-Westernism in its relations with Russia By Dalay, Galip
  6. Turkey and European energy (in)security: What role for Turkey in European energy security following the Russian invasion of Ukraine? By Tastan, Kadri
  7. Inflation-at-Risk in in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia By Mr. Maximilien Queyranne; Romain Lafarguette; Kubi Johnson
  8. Practitioner Note 4: Inclusive social protection for forcibly displaced populations By Lucas Sato
  9. A Model for Prediction of the Buffalo and Cattle male Calves' live Weight By Soliman, Ibrahim
  10. Unpacking Turkey's security footprint in Africa: Trends and implications for the EU By Tanrıverdi Yaşar, Nebahat
  11. Global employment trends for youth 2022 the Arab States By International Labour Organization.
  12. No time to lose as Tunisia's president consolidates authoritarian turn: Europe waits, watches, misses opportunities By Werenfels, Isabelle
  13. Board of Director Characteristics and Firm Performance for firms listed on Iraq Stock Exchange By Star, Miran

  1. By: Majed Alharthi (College of Business, King Abdulaziz University)
    Abstract: According to the gross domestic production, the Saudi Arabia?s economy is listed in one of the top twenty economies in the world and Saudi Arabia is a member of G20 group. Using panel data from 1990 to 2020, this study tries to identify the key factors of foreign direct investment (FDI) inwards in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is facing many economic challenges which would affect the whole world as Saudi Arabia is consider being one of the leaders in the oil sector. The economy of Saudi Arabia depended extensively on oil exporting for a long period. In 2015, the oil prices dropped sharply which force the Saudi government to find some policies to diversify Saudi economy. The Saudi Vision 2030 is one of the most important strategies to enhance the economy through a bundle of programs and economic reforms. The Saudi vision is based on three main pillars as: 1) A Vibrant Society, 2) A Thriving Economy, 3) An Ambitious Nation. In this study, the focus is on the second pillar A Thriving Economy. However, FDI is one of the most important markers of an economy's efficiency. As a result, this research identifies the positive and negative elements that have a substantial impact on FDI in Saudi Arabia. The data of this study was collected from the database of the World Bank. The ordinary least squares statistical model was utilized in this investigation (OLS). The main findings proposed that GDP has affected the economic growth positively while, unemployment impacted the economy of Saudi Arabia negatively. These results of this study help policymakers to focus on the positive drivers of Saudi economic growth and avoiding negative factors. In addition, foreign investors who would like to invest in Saudi Arabia can explore the determinants of FDI in Saudi. Finally, academics in the field of economics can benefit from this study.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment, Saudi Arabia; Economic growth, Saudi Vision 2030
    Date: 2022–07
  2. By: Ansari, Dawud
    Abstract: The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are mapping out agendas to kickstart a hydrogen economy. Especially Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are pursuing ambitious plans to supply Europe and Asia-Pacific with the carbon-friendly fuel. Numerous declarations of intent have been signed, and the first large-scale projects are under way. For the Gulf countries, hydrogen is not only a means of diversification. Since the hydrogen economy blends into the institutional and fiscal framework of the petroleum industry, it is primarily a chance for the GCC economies to maintain current economic and political power structures. While hydro­gen from the Gulf is an effective tool for climate change mitigation, Germany and Europe are faced with trade-offs and open questions.
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Mari Luomi; Fatih Yilmaz; Thamir Alshehri (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Over the past year, all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have updated their medium-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets by submitting revised nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Aramco have also announced net-zero emission targets. Work is now beginning to develop more detailed roadmaps and implementation plans, some elements of which are already laid out in the updated NDCs.
    Keywords: Circular carbon economy, Energy transition,
    Date: 2022–06–14
  4. By: Çevik, Salim
    Abstract: In the early hours of 18 April, Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) launched a military operation inside Northern Iraq dubbed Claw-Lock. Simultaneously, Turkey intensified its military activities in Syria. Furthermore, on 23 May, President Tayyip Erdoægan an­nounced that Turkey will soon start a new military operation in Syria. These moves reflect Turkey's new military strategy, based on area control, against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). So far, this new approach has yielded military success. However, it is precisely military success that is reinforcing the tendency to deal with the Kurdish problem only in terms of security and military solutions and to rule out any long-term political solution to the problem. Europe should continue to support efforts towards seeking a solution that also addresses the political dimensions of the problem.
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Dalay, Galip
    Abstract: The war in Ukraine is set to increase the pressure on Turkey's balancing policy, shed light on the role of anti-Westernism in Ankara-Moscow relations, and reshape Turkey's relations with Russia and the West. The balancing policy will face a less permissive environment. However, a rupture in Turkey-Russia relations is not to be expected. Given the prohibitive cost of a breakdown, Ankara will strive to maintain functional bilateral relations with Moscow. More broadly, despite the changed con­text, Turkey will continue to seek autonomy in its foreign and security policy. This quest precedes the balancing policy and was not driven solely by discontent with the West. It was also informed by Turkey's reading of the global order becoming more multipolar and less Western-centric. In spite of similarities in their narratives, the Turkish and Russian anti-Westernisms manifest themselves differently in policy terms. Finally, Russia's geopolitical revisionism is set to drive Turkey and the West relatively closer together in matters geopolitical and strategic, provided that Turkey's current blockage of Sweden and Finland's NATO membership bid is resolved in the not too distant future.
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Tastan, Kadri
    Abstract: The desire of the European Union (EU) to reduce its dependency on Russia for gas and diversify its sources of supply by turning to the resources of Central Asia, the Middle East, and the Eastern Mediterranean regions theoretically gives Turkey a major role in the EU's diversification and energy security policy. However, this strategic role for Turkey seems to be overestimated, given the limited share of energy that transits through Turkey to Europe. With the Russian invasion and Europe's search for alter­native energy sources in extremis, the old discussion resurfaces: Could Turkey become a major transit country for energy supplies? Given the structural changes that have occurred in the energy markets, the objective of decarbonisation, and of course the political and infrastructural challenges, it seems that this old dream will not come true this time either.
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Mr. Maximilien Queyranne; Romain Lafarguette; Kubi Johnson
    Abstract: This paper investigates inflation risks for 12 Middle East and Central Asia countries, with an equal share of commodities exporters and importers. The empirical strategy leverages the recent developments in the estimation of macroeconomic risks and uses a semi-parametric approach that balances well flexibility and robustness for density projections. The paper uncovers interesting features of inflation dynamics in the region, including the role of backward versus forward-looking drivers, non-linearities, and heterogeneous and delayed exchange rate pass-through. The results have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy and central bank communication in the Middle East and Central Asia and emerging markets in general.
    Keywords: Emerging markets; inflation; inflation expectations; Phillips Curve; monetary policy; central bank communication; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia
    Date: 2022–09–02
  8. By: Lucas Sato (IPC-IG)
    Keywords: disaster risk management; COVID-19; social protection; MENA
    Date: 2022–06
  9. By: Soliman, Ibrahim
    Abstract: The buffalo and cattle population in Egypt reached about 4.898,893 and 3,476,396 heads, respectively, in 2019. The buffalo and cattle meat production represented around 43% and 45% of the total meat production in Egypt, respectively, and the average carcass weight of buffalo and cattle reached 318 kg and 336Kg in 2019. About 50% of livestock numbers are slaughtered off-slaughter houses due to a shortage in the capacity of slaughterhouses and other financial and administrative reasons. The conducted field survey of this study showed that the majority of Egyptian livestock markets lack live weight scales, and if available, they are expensive and frightening for the animals. Therefore, numerous feedlot enterprises hire an agent who can visually forecast the expected live weight of the exhibited feeder calves for sale in the market at a high charge. Most of the models to predict the weight of live cattle-bulls knowing the chest circumference were lacking such models for buffalo-bulls and were linear models that fit only limited periods of cattle-fattening. The sample survey included 500 buffalo males and 340 cattle males of different live weights from 14 villages in 4 provinces in the Nile Delta. The data were used to estimate the best-fitted model for Egyptian livestock. This study showed that the best-fitted model was curved linear. It was a quadratic form. For empirical application, the study designed a table to predict the live weight of buffalo and cattle males at a range of 100-200 cm chest circumference. The results showed that a 1% increase in the chest circumference was associated with a 2.4% and 2.8% increase in the buffalo and cattle male's circumference, which implicitly reflects higher live weight gain of cattle than buffalo males and better meat quality. Therefore, the farm price of cattle feeder males surpassed the buffalo by $1000.
    Keywords: Prediction Model, Fed Calves, Egyptian Livestock Maekets.
    JEL: Q02 Q12 Q13
    Date: 2021–06
  10. By: Tanrıverdi Yaşar, Nebahat
    Abstract: African states are aspiring to strengthen their defence capabilities against the backdrop of ongoing instability in the continent. Turkey has lately added security and defence cooperation to its existing soft power instruments and laid the foundations for long-term strategic cooperation with African countries. Increasing drone sales are an important part of this cooperation, but they are not its only component. A mutually reinforcing policy design of arms exports, military training, and defence diplomacy allows the Turkish administration to build long-term and institutional bonds with African countries. Today, Turkey is one among many security providers that African states can choose from. Also, the European Union (EU), in its February summit with the African Union, committed to strengthening its role in addressing shared peace and security challenges in the continent. To achieve this goal, the EU and its member states should revisit potential cooperation areas with partners that are active in the continent and consider the benefits of potential cooperation with Ankara.
    Date: 2022
  11. By: International Labour Organization.
    Keywords: youth employment, COVID-19, labour market, green economy, care economy, trend
    Date: 2022
  12. By: Werenfels, Isabelle
    Abstract: In the space of just nine months, Tunisia's President Kais Saied has centralised power and dismantled the institutions established by the young democracy since the revolution of 2011. His new constitution establishing a "New Republic" will be put to a referendum on 25 July 2022. Saied's plans have divided the nation, with growing resistance from political and civil society actors demanding the return to an inclusive and democratic process. At the same time, the country is moving closer to default. Tunisia's European partners have invested heavily in democratisation and view the autocratic shift with concern. But they have failed to take meaningful action, and each new step by Saied makes it harder to reverse the path. In the interests of Tunisia's stability, Europe should move decisively and employ the financial and diplomatic leverage it has due to Tunisia's economic crisis.
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Star, Miran
    Abstract: In this project, we evaluate the firm performance and the board, and what make the board and performance, relations in the stock firms, which is owned by more than owner, and we make our research based on Iraq, and we took the firm performance, of the Iraq firms, which are in, Iraq stock exchange, which we took the 2019, for the measuring the firms, performances, and for the board of director, we make three variables, which each having effect on the board, which were the first the size of the board, the second one is the CEO duality in the board, and the third one is the gender diversity, which is focus on the female ratio, and the board make the decision, which the result be the performance of the firm, which the board decision make impact on the performance, in a way which if the performance, doesn’t go well, the board will responsible for it. For that we try to find the relation between the effective factor of the board, and their effect on the performance.
    Keywords: board size, CEO duality, female member, firm performance
    JEL: G34 M41
    Date: 2022

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