nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2022‒05‒16
eight papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. How Economic, Political and Institutional Factors Influence the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes? New Evidence from Selected Countries of the MENA Region By Maraoui, Najia; Amor, Thouraya Hadj; Khefacha, Islem; Rault, Christophe
  2. Petroleum Industry Diversification in the Middle East and Its Policy Implications for Korea in the Era of Energy Transition By Lee, Kwon Hyung; Son, Sung Hyun; Jang, Yunhee; Ryou, Kwangho; Lee, Dawoon
  3. The Impact of Forced Migration on In-Group and Out-Group Social Capital By Anselm Hager; Justin Mattias Valasek; Justin Mattias Valasek
  4. The Effect of Corruption on Internal Conflict in Iran Using Newspaper Coverage By Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Reza Zamani
  5. Does the Twin-Deficits doctrine apply to the Gulf Cooperation Council? A dynamic panel VAR-X model approach By AL-JAHWARI, SALIM AHMED SAID
  6. Les composantes économiques et politiques du discours diplomatique : Une illustration par le cas de l’accord de libre-échange Maroc Royaume-Uni By Badr Bentalha; A Lamsiah; Benabderrazik Y
  7. La digitalisation et l'entrepreneuriat rural au Maroc : les défis de relance post-covid-19 By Mohammed Belbachir; Zammar Rachid
  8. التدخل لتحسين أدوار ونتائج قطاع الحرف اليدوية في الجزائر: التطلع إلى المستقبل، وتحديد عناصر الممارسة الفعالة By Benzarour, Choukri

  1. By: Maraoui, Najia (Monastir University); Amor, Thouraya Hadj (Monastir University); Khefacha, Islem (Monastir University); Rault, Christophe (University of Orléans)
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate how economic, political and institutional factors affect the choice of exchange rate regimes, using data on eight MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries over the 1984-2016 period. Specifically, we run random-effects ordered probit regressions of the likelihood of exchange rate regimes on potential determinants of exchange rate regimes. Three important findings emerge from the analysis. i) Political and institutional factors play an important role in determining the exchange rate regime in MENA countries: a democratic political regime and a low level of corruption increases the probability to opt for a fixed regime. While, strong governments, political stability such as less internal conflicts and more government stability, more law and order enforcement and left-wing Government decreases the probability to opt for a fixed regime. ii) Bureaucracy, independent central banks, elections, terms of trade as well as the monetary independence have no effect on the choice of exchange rate regimes. iii) Financial development is not a robust determinant of the choice of exchange rate regimes. Our results still hold when considering alternative specifications and have important implications for policy makers in MENA countries.
    Keywords: exchange rate regimes, country risk, political and institutional factors, panel data, ordered probit regression, MENA
    JEL: C23 F33 F55 H80
    Date: 2022–04
    Abstract: The GCC oil exporters including Saudi Arabia and the UAE are under strong pressure to prepare for decreasing global oil demand in the era of energy transition and carbon neutrality. To overcome these challenges, they need to diversify their industrial structure and develop low carbon technologies such as green hydrogen and CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage). This research is aimed to examine various mid-to-long term plans, industrial policies, and business cooperation cases to promote diversification in the Middle Eastern petroleum industry, suggesting policy proposals for cooperation between Korea and the Middle East and business opportunities in the region.
    Keywords: Middle East; Petroleum Industry; Korea; Energy Transition
    Date: 2022–04–06
  3. By: Anselm Hager; Justin Mattias Valasek; Justin Mattias Valasek
    Abstract: In this paper, we study how forced migration impacts the in-group and out-group social capital of Syrian refugees and the host population in Northern Lebanon by administering a novel survey experiment in which we manipulate the salience of the migration experience (for refugees) and the refugee crisis (for the host population). Additionally, we study the social spillovers to Palestinians, an established refugee population in Lebanon. We find that the impact of forced migration is largely restricted to the Syrian refugee-Lebanese host population channel, and that it increases the relative disparity between in-group and out-group social capital. This may cause refugees to favor in-group interactions and therefore forgo more economically advantageous interactions with out-group members.
    Keywords: refugees, migration, social capital, experiment, ethnicity
    JEL: C90 J15 D91
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Reza Zamani
    Abstract: We study the effect of a corruption reflection index on internal conflict in Iran using a novel measure of corruption based on newspaper coverage. We use the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and its applied tools of impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to track the response of protests to shocks in the level of corruption. Using annual data from 1962 to 2019, we find a positive and significant response of protests to a positive shock in the news-based corruption reflection index. We also show that the main channels where higher corruption may lead to higher internal protests are through economic growth and military spending.
    Keywords: corruption, protest, conflict, newspaper coverage, Iran, economic growth, revolution
    JEL: D73 D74 F52 C54
    Date: 2022
    Abstract: Economies around the world tend to show a strong link from fiscal to current accounts deficits. The phenomenon is recognized as the twin-deficits doctrine, which stipulates the presence of a uni-directional causal relationship from the fiscal account deficit (FD) to the current account deficit (CD). This relationship is also apparent for the commodity-based economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council States (GCC). The region is well-documented to rapidly succumb to deteriorating fiscal and current account deficits with any prolonged decline in international crude oil prices. This study extends the research of Granger non-causality between budget deficits by employing a macro-panel in a two-dimensional vector autoregression model with an exogenous variable (VAR-X) process where oil is included as the exogenous control variable. The study uses a homogeneous model in the generalized method of moments framework to conduct a comprehensive investigation between the two deficits and analyze if the twin-deficits doctrine applies to the GCC. A heterogeneous model with fixed time coefficients is then used as a robustness check to assess if the twin-deficits phenomenon applies to any of the GCC States. The results indicate that the pooling of data from six GCC States and the inclusion of international oil prices, as the third latent element, leads to the dismissal of the twin-deficits doctrine for the GCC as an integrated unit of analysis, and, for each member State of the GCC individually. Interestingly, the analysis uncovers a reverse direction of causality running from CD to FD.
    Keywords: Twin-Deficits; Granger non-causality; Gulf Cooperation Council; Macro-panels; VAR-X.
    JEL: C23 E62 F32 F41
    Date: 2021–07–31
  6. By: Badr Bentalha (ENCGF - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion De Fès - USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah); A Lamsiah; Benabderrazik Y (ENCGF - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion De Fès - USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah)
    Date: 2020–10–01
  7. By: Mohammed Belbachir (fsjes Agdal - Economie et Gestion - FSJES Rabat); Zammar Rachid
    Abstract: The current situation characterised by the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and the forecast programming of the post-Covid period require the integration of new, more innovative actions. Hence the propensity to digitalization and the change linked to the introduction of digital technology in all the company's processes become an inevitable necessity.To this end, the main objective of this paper is to provide a holistic view of digitalization and rural entrepreneurship in Morocco. To this end, a survey was carried out through the distribution of a mixed quantitative and qualitative questionnaire to 40 businesses in the Ouezzane. The results of this investigation revealed that digitalisation can contribute to the promotion of entrepreneurship in the rural world in Morocco.
    Abstract: La conjoncture actuelle caractérisée par la propagation de la pandémie coronavirus et la programmation prévisionnelle de la période post-Covid nécessitent l'intégration des nouvelles actions plus rénovées. D'où la propension à la digitalisation et le changement lié à l'introduction de la technologie numérique dans tous les processus de l'entreprise deviennent une nécessité inévitable. A cet effet, l'objectif principal de ce papier est d'expliciter une vision holistique sur la digitalisation et l'entrepreneuriat rural au Maroc. Pour cela, une enquête a été effectuée par le biais de la distribution d'un questionnaire mixte, quantitatif et qualitatif auprès de 40 entreprises dans la zone d'Ouezzane. Les résultats de cette investigation ont révélé que la digitalisation peut contribuer à la promotion de l'entrepreneuriat dans le monde rural au Maroc.
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Benzarour, Choukri
    Abstract: There is great potential to develop the existing opportunities for handicrafts, but the strengths are not currently exploited to their full potential. The purpose of this research is to recommend priority interventions in the craft sector at the regional level according to a local development approach. The proposed interventions were developed by assessing the current intervention gap and defining the role of public policy. A number of key actions that should be implemented to develop the sector were identified in the study. The paper emphasized the most significant organizational imbalances that fall on the shoulders of the concerned government agencies, including the lack of reliable information, the importance of objective studies in bridging the information gap, and the need to re-design the accompaniment institutions' roles and the need to pay attention to design. It addressed issues of coordination and harmony among the various development agencies' programs, as well as the significance of collaborative training in the development of these capabilities.
    Keywords: handicrafts, Algeria, public policy Intervention, information and studies, coordination.
    JEL: L0 L6 L67 L85 L88
    Date: 2022–04–22

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