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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | El-Kersh, Mohamed; Atef, Mohamed; Ali, Alaa; Farghaly, Lobna; Abderabuh, Zainab; Abdelradi, Fadi; Abdou, Khaled; Abdelaziz, Ehab; Faris, Victor; Nasr, Saleh; Nassar, Yasmin; Nassar, Zaki; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, dates, poultry, olives, medicinal plants, essential oil crops, value chains, public investment, economic impact, models, agrifood systems, poverty reduction, households |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:arabic19&r= |
| By: | El-Kersh, Mohamed; Atef, Mohamed; Ali, Alaa; Farghaly, Lobna; Abderabuh, Zainab; Abdelradi, Fadi; Abdou, Khaled; Abdelaziz, Ehab; Faris, Victor; Nasr, Saleh; Nassar, Yasmin; Nassar, Zaki; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred |
| Abstract: | This policy note summarizes an evaluation of public investment options for Egypt’s agri-food system conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation of the Government of Egypt and Cairo University. We quantitatively assess the expected economy-wide impacts of investing in four promising agricultural value-chains: dates, poultry, olives, and medicinal and aromatic plants (MAP). As part of the analysis, a range of agriculture-related public investments along the value-chains are considered, including spending to expand farm production and promotion of downstream agri-processing and marketing. We use two IFPRI structural models. The Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide model is used to capture linkages between economic sectors, households, and rural-urban economies and to measure changes in economic growth, household welfare, and employment within and beyond the agri-food system. RIAPA is linked to the Agricultural Investment and Data Analysis (AIDA), the second model, which tracks investment impacts and costs over time. Inter alia, we find that: Investments into each of the four agricultural value chains enhance growth, create additional employment opportunities, improve household welfare, and reduce poverty. The MAP and poultry value chains are the most promising value chains with regard to all four evaluation criteria. However growth generation is largest if investment is concentrated in the MAP value chain, while investment into the poultry value chain has the strongest impacts on job creation and poverty reduction. Investments into primary production and processing, besides having a strong direct impact on the value chain growth, generate significant indirect effects inside and outside the agrifood system. These indirect effects are largest for the MAP value chain. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, dates, poultry, olives, medicinal plants, essential oil crops, value chains, public investment, economic impact, models, agrifood systems, poverty reduction, households |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:19&r= |
| By: | Hagher Ben Rhomdhane (Central Bank of Tunisia); Brahim Mehdi Benlallouna (Central Bank of Tunisia) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to construct a new monthly leading indicator for Tunisian economic activity and to forecast Tunisian quarterly real GDP (RGDP) using several mixed-frequency models. These include a mixed dynamic factor model, unrestricted mixed-data sampling (UMIDAS), and a threepass regression filter (3PRF) developed at the Central Bank of Tunisia, based on a monthly/quarterly set of economic and financial indicators as predictors. Our methodology is based on direct and indirect approaches, and the direct approach nowcasts aggregate RGDPs. The indirect approach is a disaggregated approach based on the output side of GDP (manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and services) using a set of available monthly indicators by sector. Furthermore, mixed-frequency dynamic factor models and unrestricted MIDAS perform well in terms of root mean squared errors compared to the benchmark model VAR (2). The forecast errors derived from the disaggregated approach during the recent COVID period are smaller than those derived from classical models such as VAR (2). In our model, we used indicators such as electricity consumption by sector, stock market index detailed by sector, and international economic surveys to capture the pandemic effect. The financial variables improve forecasting for all horizons. Additionally, we find that it is better to employ several UMIDAS-ARs by each component of GDP at constant prices and to pool the results rather than relying on aggregated GDP, specifically in volatile times. |
| Keywords: | Mixed-Frequency Data Sampling; Nowcasting; short-term forecasting |
| JEL: | E37 C55 F17 O11 |
| Date: | 2022–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp02-2022&r= |
| By: | Hager, Anselm (Humbodt-Universität); Valasek, Justin (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study how forced migration impacts the in-group and out-group social capital of Syrian refugees and the host population in Northern Lebanon by administering a novel survey experiment in which we manipulate the salience of the migration experience (for refugees) and the refugee crisis (for the host population). Additionally, we study the social spillovers to Palestinians, an established refugee population in Lebanon. We find that the impact of forced migration is largely restricted to the Syrian refugee-Lebanese host population channel, and that it increases the relative disparity between in-group and out-group social capital. This may cause refugees to favor in-group interactions and therefore forgo more economically advantageous interactions with out-group members. |
| Keywords: | Refugees; Migration; Social Capital; Experiment; Ethnicity |
| JEL: | C90 D91 J15 |
| Date: | 2022–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2022_005&r= |
| By: | Katz, Raul; Emara, Noha |
| Abstract: | The Egyptian telecommunication sector grew by 17% during the second quarter of the fiscal year 2020/21, the highest among all sectors in the economy, proven to be remarkably resilient in the face Covid-19 pandemic and the Delta variant. Using quarterly time-series dataset over the period 2000 – 2019, the study estimates the direct economic impact of telecommunications on economic growth measured by the revenues generated by the sector and the indirect economic effect (or spillover) of telecommunications on the economy by employing a structural econometric model based on an aggregate production function, a demand function, a supply function, and an infrastructure function to detect causality and examine long-run relationships between variables. This study uses two measures of telecommunications, mobile unique subscribers and mobile broadband capable device penetration to quantify the spillover effects of mobile telecommunications on the economy. Statistics show that telecommunications sector’s revenue comprised 4.4% of GDP, reflecting the direct effect of telecommunications on the economy. Additionally, according to the structural model, mobile unique subscribers and mobile broadband capable device penetration significantly contributed to the Egyptian GDP growth between 2000 and 2019. More specifically, the estimation results show that for every 1% increase in penetration in mobile unique subscriber penetration and mobile broadband capable device adoption, the average annual contribution to GDP growth is estimated to increase by 0.172% and 0.016%, respectively. On this basis, this study provides policy recommendations related to maximizing investment in network utilization including mobile, Internet services, and fixed broadband subscriptions. Research extensions would include testing the significance of complementarities such as improving governance measures and building human capacity for both households and firms, which are necessary to boost the impact of telecommunication on economic growth in Egypt. |
| Keywords: | Telecommunications; ICTs; Economic Growth; Egypt |
| JEL: | O1 O11 O33 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:112467&r= |
| By: | Hager, Anselm (Humbodt-Universität); Valasek, Justin (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | Does exposure to refugees affect natives' prosocial behavior? If so, do changes in prosocial behavior also extend to existing migrants? We administer a survey of a representative sample of Lebanese respondents and measure their prosocial behavior toward Syrian refugees, Palestinian migrants, and other Lebanese. Combining our survey data and data on refugee settlements, we find that individual proximity to refugees is positively correlated with trust towards refugees, and that there is a positive spillover toward Palestinian migrants. Taken together, the evidence highlights how inter-group contact can help mitigate the negative effects of mass migration. |
| Keywords: | Migrants; prosocial behavior |
| JEL: | J01 |
| Date: | 2022–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2022_004&r= |
| By: | Zarepour, Z.; Wagner, N. |
| Abstract: | Energy prices increased several folds due to the 2010 Iranian Energy Subsidy Reform. This study assesses the impact of the reform on the performance of manufacturing firms using a detailed micro-panel dataset at the 4-digit ISIC level for the period 2009 to 2013. Since the reform universally affected all firms, the analysis relies on a quasi-experimental framework implementing first an explorative before-after design with structural fixed-effects and second a difference-in-difference analysis exploiting energy-sensitivity. The subsidy removal caused a shrinkage in output and manufacturing value-added of at least 3 and 7%, respectively. This results in a deterioration of profits by nearly 9%. Manufacturing firms have been affected through three channels: increasing costs of direct energy inputs, pass-through costs for inputs from upstream firms and an energy-price-induced demand contraction. To successfully implement an energy subsidy reform while maintaining growth in the manufacturing sector, not only the direct but also the indirect, pass-through effects have to be considered since capital or technology-led responses to mitigate negative repercussions in the short-run are unlikely at large scale. The results can inform price reforms that aim to mitigate climate change. |
| Keywords: | Manufacturing firms, Iran, energy subsidy reform, energy price, performance loss |
| JEL: | L60 O12 Q48 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:euriss:137105&r= |