nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2022‒02‒28
sixteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The Labor Market Integration of Syrian Refugees in Turkey By Demirci, Murat; Kirdar, Murat G.
  2. Syrian Refugees and Human Capital Accumulation of Native Children in Turkey By Çakır, Selcen; Erbay, Elif; Kirdar, Murat G.
  3. The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios By Achour, Aya; Bulíř, Aleš; Chafik, Omar; Remo, Adam
  4. Getting Stuck in the Status Quo Ante: Evidence from the Egyptian Economy By Doruk, Ömer Tuğsal; Pastore, Francesco
  5. Do Economic Changes Affect the Political Preferences of Arabs in Israel? By Miaari, Sami H.; Loewenthal, Amit; Adnan, Wifag
  6. The Information and Communication Technologies-Economic Growth Nexus in Tunisia: A Cross-Section Dynamic Panel Approach By Mounir Dahmani; Mohamed Mabrouki; Adel Ben Youssef
  7. Is Production or Consumption the Determiner? Sources of Turkey’s CO2 Emissions between 1990-2015 and Policy Implications By Alkan, Ayla; Oğuş-Binatlı, Ayla
  8. The Iranian Nuclear Programme: Dynamics of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), American Unisolationism and European Apprehensions By Muhammad Nadeem Mirza; Hussain Abbas; Irfan Qaisrani
  9. The Preference Survey Module: New Evidence on Social Preferences from Tehran By Kosfeld, Michael; Sharafi, Zahra
  10. The comparison between Activity Based Costing and Traditional Costing that practiced in Algerian Manufacturing Corporation By Babaaddoun Messaoud; Ait-Mohammed Mourad
  11. Overview of the Algerian Insurance Sector in the Era of the Covid-19 Pandemic By Salah Nebbache
  12. Revealing the Foggara as a Living Irrigation System through an Institutional Analysis: Evidence from Oases in the Algerian Sahara By Salem Idda; Bruno Bonté; Marcel Kuper; Hamidi Mansour
  13. Impôt sur les sociétés et investissement : quel lien au Maroc ? By Chafik, Omar
  14. Cycles Réel et Financier au Maroc : Une Analyse par les Wavelets By Slaoui, Yassine
  15. Analyse de la vulnérabilité du tissu productif marocain By Benazzi, Sara; Bennouna, Hicham; Chmielewski, Tomasz
  16. Fonds de régulation des recettes Algérienne entre nécessité et gaspillage des ressources rares de l’État (2000-2020) By Nacima Moussa

  1. By: Demirci, Murat (Koc University); Kirdar, Murat G. (Bogazici University)
    Abstract: Turkey hosts the largest population of refugees globally; however, we know little about their labor market outcomes at the national level. We use the 2018 round of the Turkey Demographic and Health Survey, which includes a representative sample of Syrian refugees in Turkey for the first time, to examine a rich set of labor market outcomes. We find that the native-refugee gap in men's employment in Turkey (in favor of natives) is much smaller than that reported for most developed countries. Moreover, men's employment peaks quite early (one year) after arrival and remains there, whereas women's employment is lower to begin with and changes little over time. Once we account for demographic and educational differences, the native-refugee gap in men's (women's) paid employment reduces to 4.7 (4.0) percentage points (pp). These small gaps conceal the fact that refugees' formal employment is much lower. Even after accounting for the covariates, refugee men's formal employment rate is 58 pp lower. In addition, the native-refugee gap is the smallest in manufacturing for men and in agriculture for women, and the gap is also much smaller in wage-employment than self-employment and unpaid family work for both genders. Young refugees are more likely to work than natives, whereas the gap favors natives among the prime-age working people. Moreover, the native-refugee gap in employment widens for more educated refugees. Finally, accounting for the differences in covariates, the native-refugee gap in men's employment vanishes for Turkish-speaking refugees but persists for Arabic- and Kurdish-speaking refugees.
    Keywords: Syrian refugees, labor market integration, employment, Turkey
    JEL: F22 J21 J61 O15
    Date: 2021–12
  2. By: Çakır, Selcen (Bogazici University); Erbay, Elif (Istanbul University); Kirdar, Murat G. (Bogazici University)
    Abstract: Turkey hosts the highest number of refugees in the world. The arrival of Syrian refugees has significantly changed the relative abundance of different skill groups in Turkey and the labor market conditions. This paper examines how this massive refugee influx affects native working-age children's school enrollment and employment outcomes using a difference-indifferences IV methodology. We find that employment of both boys and girls falls substantially, but a large fraction of this fall stems from the transition of children who used to combine school and work into school only. School enrollment increases only for boys, and this is stronger for boys with more educated parents. The incidence of being neither in employment nor in education or training (NEET) increases among girls, particularly for those with less-educated parents, but not among boys. In fact, the NEET incidence drops for boys with more-educated parents.
    Keywords: syrian refugees, school enrollment, employment, child work, education, NEET, Turkey
    JEL: I25 J61
    Date: 2021–12
  3. By: Achour, Aya (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche); Bulíř, Aleš (IMF); Chafik, Omar (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche); Remo, Adam (IMF)
    Abstract: The Morocco Policy Analysis model (MOPAM) was created in the Bank Al-Maghrib to simulate the impact of external developments, domestic macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms on key macroeconomic aggregates. We describe its structure and demonstrate its operation on two medium-term scenarios: (1) fiscal consolidation to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio and (2) the effects of the COVID-19 shock, including the endogenous fiscal and monetary policy response.
    Keywords: Macroeconomicmodeling; Morocco; fiscalstabilization; COVID-19pandemic
    JEL: E32 E47 E52 E58 E62
    Date: 2021–04–01
  4. By: Doruk, Ömer Tuğsal (Adana Alpaslan Türkeş Science and Technology University); Pastore, Francesco (Università della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli)
    Abstract: In this study, for the first time, to our knowledge, we use the propensity score matching algorithm to estimate the probability to remain 'stuck in the status-quo ante' across generations in Egypt. We use repeated cross-sectional data relative to a 20-year period from 1998 to 2018 to build transition matrices of intergenerational occupational mobility. The findings of the econometric analysis hint at a low degree of occupational mobility, with children of fathers in the agricultural sector or holding a blue- or white-collar job remaining linked to the profession of their fathers in most cases and experiencing only rarely upward mobility from agricultural to blue- and white-collar jobs.
    Keywords: intergenerational occupational mobility, status quo bias, propensity score matching, Egypt
    JEL: C35 D64 J24 J62 L16
    Date: 2022–01
  5. By: Miaari, Sami H. (Tel Aviv University); Loewenthal, Amit (University of Potsdam); Adnan, Wifag (New York University, Abu Dhabi)
    Abstract: We examine the relationship between socio-economic characteristics and voting patterns among Arabs in Israel. We combine panel data on 73 Arab localities with election results and socio-economic indicators for seven election years between 1996 and 2015. Exploiting variation in political preferences and socio-economic status between localities across time, we find that both demographic transition and improvements in standards of living are associated with a decrease in the proportion of Israeli Arabs voting for Jewish-majority parties and a rise in their electoral support for Arab Parties. We also find that the decrease in voter turnout among Arabs following the political effects of the Second Intifada may have been only circumstantial. Our results suggest that Arabs in Israel are becoming more politically independent, as a result of social, political and economic modernization.
    Keywords: Israel, elections, Arabs, political economy
    JEL: D01
    Date: 2022–01
  6. By: Mounir Dahmani (Université de Gafsa); Mohamed Mabrouki (Université de Gafsa); Adel Ben Youssef (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur)
    Abstract: The rapid diffusion of information and communication technologies (ICT) is becoming an important determinant of national economic growth. This paper examines the relationship between development of ICT and economic growth in Tunisia based on a sector analysis. We employ the common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) and augmented mean group (AMG) methods and annual panel data for 1997 to 2017, to study the significant positive relationship between ICT and economic growth in Tunisia. Our sector analysis shows that the effect of ICT on value added is heterogenous depending on the sector of activity and provides three main findings. First, in some sectors such as financial services, transport, building and civil engineering, hotel and restaurant services and other market services ICT have a positive and significant impact on value added. These sectors benefit from use of ICT. Second, in some sectors such as trade and various manufacturing industries, ICT has a negative and significant impact on value added. These sectors need to be well organized and well managed to avoid domination by informalities. Third, in some sectors such as public administration there is a productivity paradox and despite huge investment in ICT they have no impact on value added due to the absence of a deep organizational change.
    Keywords: ICT diffusion index,capital,labor,economic growth,Tunisia,dynamic panel,cross-sectional,CCEMG,AMG
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Alkan, Ayla; Oğuş-Binatlı, Ayla
    Abstract: Turkey’s CO2 emissions have been steadily increasing since 1990. Determining influences of socioeconomic factors behind this increase can help identify which the sectors and what types of policies should be prioritized to go into action. This paper identifies the main contributors to CO2 emissions change within five-year intervals during 1990-2015 by adopting Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) method. The results show that CO2 emissions increase was driven by per capita expenditure and population factors, while emission coefficient factor had a reducing effect on emissions. As the production side factors fell pretty behind the consumption side factors, net emissions was positive and the actual determiner in CO2 emissions was found as consumption. The most contributing sectors were Electricity, Land Transportation and Mineral. Speeding up renewable energy investments and continuing energy efficiency measures, placing a carbon tax on electricity and oil consumption, promoting public transport and use of clean fuels and vehicles, slowing down construction and raising consumer awareness to change their consumption behavior, particularly to reduce demand for high emitting products and services should be the top priority policies.
    Keywords: Supply-Use Table; Structural Decomposition Analysis; CO2 emission; INDC; Turkey
    JEL: C67 D57 Q5 Q54 R15
    Date: 2021–02–11
  8. By: Muhammad Nadeem Mirza (School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i Azam University); Hussain Abbas (The Islamia University of Bahawalpur - IUB (PAKISTAN)); Irfan Qaisrani (Bahria University)
    Abstract: Though Iran claims that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, yet it may decide to pursue nuclear weapons while taking into consideration the complex geostrategic matrix of the region-a situation that may result in further horizontal proliferation. The permanent five UN Security Council members and Germany (P5+1) signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran in 2015 with the objective to curtail its nuclear ambitions. Since then, it has become a challenge for the European powers-France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the European Union (E3 + 1) to maintain trust and keep the deal going. Coercive measures like sanctions on the part of the US against Iran have created a huge trust deficit and resultantly have put the new administration of Joe Biden in a situation of few choices to revive the deal to tackle the Iranian nuclear issue. Sanctions also bittered American European allies especially France, whose companies have big business interests in Iran. This article aims at addressing the issues of the Iranian nuclear program, its nature, purpose, and interests. It also deliberates the European and the US concerns before and after the deal.
    Abstract: Bien que l'Iran prétende que son programme nucléaire est à des fins pacifiques, il peut néanmoins décider de poursuivre les armes nucléaires tout en tenant compte de la matrice géostratégique complexe de la région - une situation qui peut entraîner une nouvelle prolifération horizontale. Les cinq membres permanents du Conseil de sécurité de l'ONU et l'Allemagne (P5+1) ont signé le Plan d'action global conjoint (JCPOA) avec l'Iran en 2015 dans le but de réduire ses ambitions nucléaires. Depuis lors, il est devenu un défi pour les puissances européennes - France, Allemagne, Royaume-Uni et Union européenne (E3 + 1) de maintenir la confiance et de maintenir l'accord. Des mesures coercitives telles que des sanctions de la part des États-Unis contre l'Iran ont créé un énorme déficit de confiance et ont par conséquent mis la nouvelle administration de Joe Biden dans une situation de peu de choix pour relancer l'accord pour s'attaquer au problème nucléaire iranien. Les sanctions ont également amerri les alliés européens des États-Unis, en particulier la France, dont les sociétés ont de gros intérêts commerciaux en Iran. Cet article vise à aborder les problèmes du programme nucléaire iranien, sa nature, son objectif et ses intérêts. Il délibère également sur les préoccupations européennes et américaines avant et après l'accord.
    Keywords: Iran's Nuclear Programme,Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),P5+1,E3+1,American Unisolationism,Isolationism,Unilateralism,Nuclear Studies,International Relationship,European Union - External relations
    Date: 2022–01–03
  9. By: Kosfeld, Michael (Goethe University Frankfurt); Sharafi, Zahra (Goethe University Frankfurt)
    Abstract: We provide new evidence on the extent that survey items in the Preference Survey Module and the resulting Global Preference Survey measuring social preferences − trust, altruism, positive and negative reciprocity − predict behavior in corresponding experimental games outside the original student sample from Bonn, Germany. Our results, which are based on a replication study in Tehran, Iran, are somewhat mixed. While quantitative items considering hypothetical versions of the experimental games correlate significantly and economically meaningfully with individual behavior, none of the qualitative items show significant correlations. The only exception is altruism where results correspond more closely to the original findings.
    Keywords: preference survey module, global preference survey, validation, replication, social preferences
    JEL: C81 C83 C90 D01 D03
    Date: 2022–01
  10. By: Babaaddoun Messaoud (University of Algiers 3 : Université d' Alger 3); Ait-Mohammed Mourad (University of Algiers 3 : Université d' Alger 3)
    Abstract: This study aims to suggest practice of modern cost technique as an alternative for traditional cost technique. The manufacturing was calculated the cost using traditional system, which the cost of product, is 542.00 da is more than the cost of ABC system which is 468.892 da. The different is 73.108 da; this amount will effect negative on organization performance, profitability, and enhance competitive position. The result of calculating the costs it was less accurate to traditional cost accounting system, also traditional costing combines all indirect costs into a single cost pool. The researcher was practiced the ABC in the real manufacturing, It was more accurate, as it resulted in efficiency, accuracy and objectivity of achieved Activity-based Costing purposes which is decreasing costs.
    Keywords: Activity-based Costing,Traditional costing,decrease the costs JEL classification: L06,N06,O14,M41
    Date: 2021–12–30
  11. By: Salah Nebbache (Ecole Supérieure de Commerce –Koléa, (Algérie))
    Abstract: The insurance sector in developed countries occupies a vital place in their economies and contributes to the country's development. This market, like so many others, is doomed to failure, at best, to stagnation. It must therefore be resilient to the economic situation and boost itself to growth. This paper aims to investigate the impact of the double crisis associated with the exceptional economic situation as well as the pandemic on the Algerian insurance sector. The findings reveal that the sector's employment is shrinking, along with a decline in insurance company recruitments. Furthermore, the overall market output is down, notably in the automotive insurance and assistance branches.
    Abstract: Le secteur des assurances dans les pays développés occupe une place primordiale dans leurs économies et contribue à l'essor du pays. Ce secteur, comme tant d'autres, est voué à l'échec, au mieux à la stagnation. Il doit donc s'adapter à la conjoncture et aspirer à se positionner sur la tangente de la croissance. L'objectif de l'article est d'examiner l'impact de la double crise liée, à la fois, à la situation économique exceptionnelle et à la crise sanitaire pandémique sur le secteur algérien des assurances. Les résultats montrent que l'effectif du secteur marque une régression qui coïncide avec un recul des recrutements opérés par les sociétés d'assurance. Aussi, la production globale du marché marque une baisse notamment dans les branches assurance automobile, et assistance.
    Keywords: secteur des assurances,double crise,recul,production,branches d'assurance Code Jel : G22,O16 insurance sector,double crisis,decline,market output,branches of insurance JEL Classification Codes : G22,O16
    Date: 2021–12–30
  12. By: Salem Idda (LEESI Laboratory, Faculty of Sciences and Technologies - University of Ahmed Draïa, Adrar); Bruno Bonté (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Marcel Kuper (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Hamidi Mansour (Laboratoire de Géoressources et Risques Naturels, Université d'Oran)
    Abstract: The foggara in the Algerian Sahara has often been portrayed as a traditional ingenious but immutable irrigation system incapable of keeping up with the radical socioeconomic and environmental transformations of the 20 th and 21 st centuries. Yet, oasis populations continue to use a large number of foggaras. The aim of this study was to reveal the importance of institutions in adapting and preserving the living character of foggaras. Adapting the physical infrastructure and the institutions governing the use of contemporary foggaras are key to adapt to change, weaving different threads of tradition and modernity to maintain collective action and keep the foggaras flowing. We show that Ostrom's design principles are not only an interesting lens to explore the durability of long-standing self-governing irrigation systems, but also, when these principles are challenged, to characterize transformations of the foggara at a time of contested change.
    Keywords: commons,design principles,institutional adjustments
    Date: 2021–12–22
  13. By: Chafik, Omar (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche)
    Abstract: L’impôt sur les sociétés (IS) est souvent présenté comme un instrument budgétaire efficace pour encourager l’investissement. Ce travail investigue ce lien dans le contexte marocain en utilisant des données macroéconomiques et microéconomiques. Plus précisément, un modèle VAR structurel est utilisé au niveau de l’approche macroéconomique pour étudier la réaction de l’investissement à une baisse de la pression fiscale de l’IS. Au niveau de l’approche microéconomique, des régressions en panel sur les données comptables des entreprises non financières marocaines sont conduites pour apprécier l’impact du taux effectif de l’IS sur l’investissement privé. Sur le plan macroéconomique, il ressort que l’allégement de la pression fiscale de l’IS aurait un effet légèrement positif sur l’investissement au Maroc. Mais en même temps, la baisse des taux d’IS affecterait les recettes fiscales et induirait un creusement du déficit budgétaire. Sur le plan microéconomique, l’analyse effectuée montre que l’effet de l’IS sur l’investissement est significatif mais reste moins important comparativement à l’effet de certaines variables comme la trésorerie ou l’âge de l’entreprise.
    Keywords: Impôt sur les sociétés; investissement; SVAR; données bilancielles; régression en panel
    JEL: C23 C51 E22 H52
    Date: 2021–12–30
  14. By: Slaoui, Yassine (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche)
    Abstract: Ce travail propose d’analyser les propriétés du cycle financier au Maroc ainsi que ses interdépendances avec le cycle réel. Nous utilisons la méthode Wavelet (Crowley (2007), Aguiar-Conraria et Soares (2011)) afin d’estimer la relation entre ces deux cycles à différents niveaux de fréquence, ainsi que l’évolution de cette relation au cours du temps. Notre analyse suggère que le cycle financier, mesuré à partir du crédit bancaire, est plus long que le cycle réel, estimé à partir du PIB. De manière générale, les mouvements du PIB précèdent ceux du crédit bancaire. Le cycle financier manifeste par ailleurs des interactions fortes, mais à caractère épisodique, avec le cycle réel.
    Keywords: Wavelets; Cyclefinancier; politiquemacroprudentielle; créditbancaire
    JEL: C22 E32 E44 E51 G21
    Date: 2021–12–30
  15. By: Benazzi, Sara (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche); Bennouna, Hicham (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche); Chmielewski, Tomasz (Narodowy Bank Polski)
    Abstract: Ce document examine la vulnérabilité financière des entreprises du secteur non financier privé marocain à travers l’élaboration d’un indice de vulnérabilité basé sur le concept de la dette à risque. La vulnérabilité est analysée par taille, âge, secteur d’activité et région, selon quatre principales dimensions, à savoir : la solvabilité, la liquidité, la rentabilité et la capacité de service de la dette. Cette étude mobilise un panel non cylindré de 306 346 entreprises non financières privées ayant déclaré leurs états comptables entre 2006 et 2019, soit près de 1 218 011 bilans au total et 86 000 entreprises en moyenne par an. Les résultats montrent que le degré de vulnérabilité des entreprises est resté relativement stable sur la période étudiée quoiqu’il ait enregistré une légère hausse à partir de 2014, en lien avec l’atonie de la croissance économique. Aussi, les jeunes entreprises et les TPME sont relativement plus vulnérables que les vieilles et les grandes entreprises.
    Keywords: secteur-non-financier-prive; indice-de-vulnérabilité-des-entreprises; dette-à-Risque
    JEL: F34 F65 G30
    Date: 2021–12–30
  16. By: Nacima Moussa (UMBB - Université M'Hamed Bougara Boumerdes)
    Abstract: This article is about the evolution of the Algerian revenue regulations funds over the period 2000-2020, which was created in 2000 to deal with the oil chock, the funds has contributed for many years since its creation to the compensation of the lower values of the oil taxation, either for the reduction of the public debt, or, finally, to finance the budget deficit of the State, which proves its growing role on the one hand, but on the other hand the 2014 oil shock led to the total drying up of its assets in early 2017.
    Abstract: Cet article détaille l'évolution du fonds de régulations des recettes algérienne sur la période 2000-2020, créé en 2000 pour faire face spécialement au choc pétrolier. Le fonds a contribué pendant de longues années depuis sa création soit à la compensation des moins-values de la fiscalité pétrolière, soit pour la réduction de la dette publique, soit, enfin, pour financer le déficit budgétaire de l'État, ce qui prouve son rôle grandissant d'un côté, mais d'un autre coté le choc pétrolier de 2014 a conduit à l'assèchement total de ses actifs début 2017.
    Keywords: Code Jel,F21,F30,G29,Q43 revenue regulation funds,sovereign wealth funds,budget deficit,oil chock. JEL Classification Codes : F21,Q43
    Date: 2021–12–30

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