nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2022‒01‒24
nine papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Ex-post Evaluation of the impact of trade chapters of the Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreements with six partners: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia By Michael Fuenfzig; Pietro Maggi; Corine Besseling; Anne Winkel; Michael Flickenschild; Przemysław Kowalski; Katarzyna Sidło; Anna Malinowska; Marek Peda; Christopher Hartwell; Patricia Augier; Maryse Louis; Constantin Tsakas; Franck Viroleau; Stephane Quefelec; Novella Bottini; Michael Gasiorek; Nicolas Peridy; Myriam Ben Saad; Amandine Gnonlonfin; Rania Dial; Najla Kamergi
  2. An analysis of Public Governance tools in selected GCC countries and their impact on WGI rankings. By Alsajjan, Sultan; Gallant, Dr. Monica; Pani, Dr. Pranab
  3. Time-Varying Relationship Between Exports and Real Exchange Rate in Turkey: A Recent Analysis at Sectoral Level By Selcuk Gul; Abdullah Kazdal
  4. Sunk cost hysteresis in Turkish manufacturing exports By Kurmas Akdogan; Laura Werner
  5. Estimating Time-Varying Potential Output and NAIRU Using a Multivariate Filter for Turkey By Mert Gökcü
  6. Oil prices and fiscal policy in an oil-exporter country: Empirical evidence from Oman By Salwa Aljabri; Mala Raghavan; Joaquin Vespignan
  7. Morocco at COP 26 By Rim Berahab; Uri Dadush
  8. The importance of developing foreign trade to achieve economic growth in Algeria during the period (1991-2017) using the ARDL model By Bouklia Nawel
  9. Perceptions des premiers mois de la crise de la COVID-19 dans six pays d’Afrique By Martial Foucault,; Pierre-Henri Bono.

  1. By: Michael Fuenfzig; Pietro Maggi; Corine Besseling; Anne Winkel; Michael Flickenschild; Przemysław Kowalski; Katarzyna Sidło; Anna Malinowska; Marek Peda; Christopher Hartwell; Patricia Augier; Maryse Louis; Constantin Tsakas; Franck Viroleau; Stephane Quefelec; Novella Bottini; Michael Gasiorek; Nicolas Peridy; Myriam Ben Saad (ESPI2R - Laboratoire ESPI2R Research in Real Estate [Paris] - ESPI - Ecole Supérieure des Professions Immobilières); Amandine Gnonlonfin; Rania Dial; Najla Kamergi
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Alsajjan, Sultan; Gallant, Dr. Monica; Pani, Dr. Pranab
    Abstract: Many challenges and risks face the Middle Eastern countries such as economic challenges, political instabilities, and risk of violence. Building robust public governance systems can help to mitigate these risks to an acceptable level. As the core of the Middle East, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries bear a more significant load than others in the region. In the GCC, public governance tools are significantly influenced by many factors such as political, economic, and cultural systems. deals with a sample of these tools, provides technical analysis for the major Based on an exhaustive literature review, this research study outlines the various tools that are used for corporate governance in six selected GCC countries and analyzes the impact of these tools on the effectiveness of public governance systems in these countries as measured by the worldwide governance indicators (WGI) rankings used by the World Bank. Ultimately, the researchers suggest the elements that should be included in creating a structured public governance framework that will support GGC's countries to improve the maturity of their governance systems and increase their standing and position in the WGIs.
    Keywords: Public governance, GCC, World Governance Indicators,
    JEL: H1 R5
    Date: 2021–12–01
  3. By: Selcuk Gul; Abdullah Kazdal
    Abstract: Previous evidence on the impact of real exchange rate developments on Turkey's exports suggests that the effect is weak while the key determinant of exports is foreign income. Using recent data, this study provides rolling estimates that indicate an increase in the statistical significance and absolute magnitude of the real exchange rate elasticity of exports after the real depreciation of the Turkish lira in recent years. In this context, the cumulative decline in the real exchange rate in recent years is considered one of the factors that boosted Turkish exports. However, the findings confirm that the main determinant of Turkey’s exports is the changes in the incomes of trading partners and real exchange rate movements have a relatively limited effect on exports compared to that of the foreign income. Given that the sectors have quite different structures, the significance of the real exchange rate elasticities and their absolute size differ; yet, the effect of the real exchange rate on exports has increased more recently in most sectors. Finally, while interpreting the findings of the study, it should be taken into account that, in addition to trade channel, real exchange rate movements have effects on the economy through firm and household balance sheet channels.
    Keywords: Export, Real exchange rate elasticity, ARDL, Rolling estimates
    JEL: C22 F14 F31 F41
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Kurmas Akdogan; Laura Werner
    Abstract: This article examines hysteresis in export entry-exit decisions of the Turkish manufacturing sector using the Preisach method. As the argument goes, sunk costs imply threshold levels of the exchange rate affecting the export market entry-exit behaviour of firms. The wait-and-see behaviour of firms in between these thresholds results in hysteresis in export markets at the aggregated level. Our results suggest sunk cost hysteresis for five subsectors of the Turkish manufacturing sector: clothing, textiles, machinery, tobacco products and communication equipment. The article also provides a more detailed look on the determinants of hysteresis behaviour in the clothing sector.
    Keywords: Hysteresis, Exports, Preisach method, Nonlinearity, Path-dependency
    JEL: C19 F14 L60
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Mert Gökcü
    Abstract: Potential output and NAIRU estimates are crucial to identify the state of the economy for both monetary policymakers and fiscal policy authorities. This paper extends the multivariate filter approach developed for Turkey by integrating the capacity utilization block into the model. Also, broader-defined unemployment rate is included as alternative in the model. The idea is that traditional measure of unemployment rate may not fully capture the cycle conditions of the labor market. The results show that long and deep recessions resulted in hysteresis in the labor market and reduced potential output. While estimate of the slack in the output was smaller in the recent shock (2018-3: 2018-4), the unemployment rate and NAIRU increased sharply with reaching the highest levels historically in recession periods. Due to weak foreign demand and composition of industrial sector products, the slack in capacity utilization rate was higher in the global financial crisis (2008-2: 2009-1).
    Keywords: Potential output, Output gap, NAIRU, Multivariate filter, Bayesian estimation
    JEL: C51 E32 E52
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Salwa Aljabri; Mala Raghavan; Joaquin Vespignan
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of oil price shocks on fiscal policy and real GDP in Oman using new unexplored data. We find that an oil price shock explains around 22% and 46% of the variation in the government revenue and GDP, respectively. Decomposing the government revenue and GDP further into petroleum and non-petroleum related components, we find that an oil price shock explains around 26% of the variation in petroleum revenue and 90% of the petroleum-GDP. Though petroleum and non-petroleum GDP respond positively to oil price shocks, government expenditure is not affected by oil prices but is affected by government revenue. The results suggest that the Omani government uses its reserve fund and local and international debt to smooth and reduce the impact of oil price fluctuations.
    Keywords: oil price shocks, fiscal policy, GDP, SVAR
    JEL: C32 E17 E62 N15
    Date: 2021–10
  7. By: Rim Berahab; Uri Dadush
    Abstract: As COP 26 unfolds, more attention is likely to be paid to big emitters such as China and the United States than to the situation of small developing countries, even though they are more exposed to the consequences of climate change. Morocco falls into this category. This Policy Brief examines Morocco's mitigation objectives under its NDCs and its performance to date before exploring the needed measures to achieve the 2030 mid- term goal. Although Morocco has made significant progress in terms of decarbonization, overall performance is below what was expected. Meeting its NDC targets, thus, requires a considerable deceleration of Morocco's emissions, which can constitute a significant challenge given the financial and social implications of the energy transition. This is a challenge that can be met with appropriate policies. Meanwhile, recent initiatives by the EU and the US to link trade policies with carbon emissions send an important message to the rest of the world that the cost of inaction on climate policy in terms of lost business opportunities may come sooner than expected.
    Date: 2021–11
  8. By: Bouklia Nawel (Algiers3 University Algeria)
    Abstract: This study aims to identify the foreign trade and its impact on economic growth in Algeria for the period (1991-2017). The results indicate that there is a positive relationship between exports and economic growth. Thus, the result of study recommends the need to encourage and develop the non-oil sectors, as it is exposed to risk due to the volatility of their prices. Therefore, it calls for the elimination of the unilateral sector .
    Keywords: Foreign trade,Trade balance,Gross Domestic Product,Model ARDL.
    Date: 2021–11–03
  9. By: Martial Foucault,; Pierre-Henri Bono.
    Abstract: Dans un contexte de diffusion du coronavirus à l’échelle mondiale depuis mars 2020, les gouvernants ont adopté une variété de mesures sanitaires, tantôt préventives, tantôt restrictives. En retour, les populations exposées à ces mesures ont affiché des niveaux de respect, d’adhésion et de soutien très variables. L’objectif général de cette recherche est de préciser la nature des perceptions du virus pour comprendre les raisons pour lesquelles les populations ont adhéré aux politiques de lutte contre la COVID. Parmi ces déterminants, l’étude met en avant le rôle du subjectif (émotions, confiance), variable clé pour anticiper les réactions des citoyens face à de nouveaux choix de politique publique.
    Keywords: Afrique, Afrique du Sud, Côte d'Ivoire, Égypte, Maroc, Nigéria, Sénégal
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2022–01–05

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