nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2022‒01‒03
eight papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The Labor Market Integration of Syrian Refugees in Turkey By Murat Demirci; Murat Guray Kirdar
  2. The Effect of Islamic Revolution and War on Income Inequality in Iran By Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Mohammad Ali Kadivar
  3. Moroccan cooperative model: Social welfare and inequality By Mustapha Jaad; Najib Bahmani
  4. Can Venezuelan scenario be repeated in Tunisia? The role of remittances in an inflationary context By Refk Selmi; Farid Makhlouf
  5. Measuring the Output Effects of Fiscal Policy in Egypt: A Disaggregated Structural VAR Analysis. By Ibrahim, Omar
  6. Spillovers between Exchange Rate Pressure and CDS Bid-Ask Spreads, Reserve Assets and Oil Prices Using the Quantile ARDL Model By Shawkat Hammoudeh; Walid Mensi; Jin Seo Cho
  8. La modélisation de la dynamique des volatilités et des corrélations entre les prix des matières premières et les rendements boursiers By Sami Mestiri; Sabrine Abdelghani

  1. By: Murat Demirci (Department of Economics, Koç University); Murat Guray Kirdar (Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University)
    Abstract: Turkey hosts the largest population of refugees globally; however, we know little about their labor market outcomes at the national level. We use the 2018 round of the Turkey Demographic and Health Survey, which includes a representative sample of Syrian refugees in Turkey for the first time, to examine a rich set of labor market outcomes. We find that the native-refugee gap in men’s employment in Turkey (in favor of natives) is much smaller than that reported for most developed countries. Moreover, men’s employment peaks quite early (one year) after arrival and remains there, whereas women’s employment is lower to begin with and changes little over time. Once we account for demographic and educational differences, the native-refugee gap in men’s (women’s) paid employment reduces to 4.7 (4.0) percentage points (pp). These small gaps conceal the fact that refugees’ formal employment is much lower. Even after accounting for the covariates, refugee men’s formal employment rate is 58 pp lower. In addition, the native-refugee gap is the smallest in manufacturing for men and in agriculture for women, and the gap is also much smaller in wage-employment than self-employment and unpaid family work for both genders. Young refugees are more likely to work than natives, whereas the gap favors natives among the prime-age working people. Moreover, the native-refugee gap in employment widens for more educated refugees. Finally, accounting for the differences in covariates, the native-refugee gap in men’s employment vanishes for Turkish-speaking refugees but persists for Arabic- and Kurdish-speaking refugees.
    Keywords: Syrian refugees, labor market integration, employment, Turkey.
    JEL: J61 F22 J21 O15
    Date: 2021–12
  2. By: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Mohammad Ali Kadivar
    Abstract: Existing research has pointed to the decreasing effect of revolutions and wars on income inequality. It is unclear whether this reduction is the result of ongoing changes within countries before revolutions and wars or if the results are standalone effects. In this study, we focus on the case of the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the subsequent Iran-Iraq war from 1980 to 1988. We use the synthetic control method to study the effect of revolution and war on changes in income inequality levels. Had there been no revolution and war in Iran, how would income inequality have developed? Utilizing the synthetic control method, we created a counterfactual Iran that reproduces the socioeconomic characteristics of Iran before the Islamic revolution. Then we compare the income inequality of the counterfactual Iran, without the revolution and war, to the factual Iran with a new political regime, for the period of 1970-1988. Our results, based on two different indicators of Iran’s Gini, show a statistically significant effect of the revolution and war on reducing income inequality. Over the entire 1979–1988 period, on average and per year, the Gini index of Iran was reduced by approximately 3 times of the standard deviation of this index. The main findings are robust to a series of placebo tests.
    Keywords: income inequality, war, revolution, Iran, synthetic control, counterfactual
    JEL: D63 D74 H56 Q34
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Mustapha Jaad (FSJES Agadir); Najib Bahmani (FSJES Agadir)
    Abstract: The aim of this article is to describe and understand the economic and social role of the Moroccan cooperative model and to present its shortcomings and limitations that hinder sustainable development. We discuss the different approaches and forms of entrepreneurship in social economy, and then we highlight the important role that cooperatives are increasingly occupying. Finally, we present the limitations and obstacles of this model. We adopt the interpretive paradigm, the aim of which is to bring out the deep meaning of the observed phenomenon. However, the empirical model and the national statistics that we will discuss are thus extracted from a comparative report between eight Mediterranean countries (including Morocco), carried out by FEMISE (Euro-Mediterranean Forum of Institutes of Economic Sciences) at the end of 2019.
    Abstract: L'objectif de cet article est de décrire et comprendre le rôle économique et social de modèle coopératif marocain et présenter ses lacunes et limites qui entravent le développement durable. Nous abordons les différentes approches et formes d'entrepreneuriat en économie sociale, ensuite nous mettons en lumière la place importante occupée de plus en plus par les coopératives. En dernier lieu, nous présentons les limites et les obstacles de ce modèle. Nous adoptons le paradigme interprétatif, dont le but est de ressortir le sens profond du phénomène observé. Or, le modèle empirique et les statistiques nationales que nous traiterons, sont ainsi extraits d'un rapport comparatif entre huit pays méditerranéens (dont le Maroc), réalisé par FEMISE (Forum euro-méditerranéen des instituts de sciences économiques) fin 2019.
    Keywords: Modèle coopératif,bien-être social,inégalités sociales
    Date: 2020–07–03
  4. By: Refk Selmi (ESC Pau); Farid Makhlouf (ESC Pau)
    Abstract: Over the past decade, remittances to Tunisia have increased significantly. Meantime, the Tunisian economy has grown by as little as 0.6 percent on average with inflation averaging six percent. With the harmful economic and social consequences of the COVID-19 crisis as well as the political unrest (especially after Tunisian President Kais Saied invoked Article 80 of the country's 2014 constitution to suspend parliament amid nationwide protests calling for the resignation of the government and the dissolution of the parliament), managing inflation risks seems growingly challenging. Our study is the first attempt to examine the relationship between remittances and Tunisia's inflation dynamics in the central and tail distributions over different correlation regimes. Particularly, we use a copula-based approach that sheds a new light on the dynamic dependence between inflation and remittances. This technique allows to control for possible asymmetries in the form of a high or crisis dependence and a low or a normal state dependence. Our results robustly reveal that remittances are prominent factor determining inflation in Tunisia. More interestingly, we show that remittances and inflation are more strongly correlated during high uncertainty conditions rather than low uncertainty regime. Such accurate insights on the dynamic relationship between remittances and inflation would allow the central bank to anticipate more effectively the evolution of inflation and to propose more appropriate instruments to control it in a context of high inflationary pressures and heightened political uncertainty.
    Keywords: Inflation,Remittances,Tunisia,Political instability,Copula-based approach
    Date: 2021–11–15
  5. By: Ibrahim, Omar
    Abstract: This research aims to quantify the effects of fiscal policy on output in Egypt by applying a Structural Vector Autoregressive analysis on quarterly time-series from 2007/8 Q1 to 2019/20 Q4. The research investigates the channels of transmission of fiscal policy by disaggregating the SVAR to analyse the effects of changes in taxation and government spending on economic growth. Results consistently show positive effects on output resulting from government spending shocks, and negative effects resulting from taxation shocks. Public investments and consumption are seen to crowd in private investments with a lag while public consumption crowds out private consumption. Taxation is seen to crowd out private investments and consumption. Overall, the results are in line with the neoclassical theory.
    Keywords: SVAR, Fiscal Policy, GDP, Egypt
    JEL: H2 H3 H5
    Date: 2021–07–01
  6. By: Shawkat Hammoudeh (Drexel University); Walid Mensi (Sultan Qaboos University); Jin Seo Cho (Yonsei University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the quantile relationships between the Saudi Riyal (SAR) exchange rate pressure, Credit default swap (CDS) spreads, total reserve assets, and oil prices. Using the available monthly data ranging from 2008 to 2018 and employing the error correction model, the results show a negative and significant relationship between the long-run coefficient of the SAR exchange rate pressure and the long run coefficients of both the CDS and the oil price. However, the long run coefficient of the foreign reserves is statistically insignificant, thus indicating that the exchange rate pressure, CDS spread and oil price variables are cointegrated. As for the short-run coefficients, we find that the lag SAR pressure affects the current pressure. Moreover, the short-run coefficient of the foreign reserves affects negatively the SAR pressure. Moreover, using the quantile ARDL (QARDL) model, we find a significant relationship particularly in the extreme quantiles, regardless of the level or the log level series. Under the long-run coefficients, the positive (negative) relationship characterizes the nexus of the reserves-pressure and the CDS-pressure (oil-pressure) on the SAR. As for the short-run coefficients, we find that an increase in the lag SAR pressures contributes to the current pressure across all quantiles, whereas an increase in the reserves reduces the pressure in the extreme quantiles. These results have important implications for policy makers.
    Keywords: Exchange Rate Pressure; CDS Bid-Ask Spreads; Reserve Assets; Oil Prices; Quantile ARDL Model
    JEL: G14
    Date: 2021–12
  7. By: Mouad Lamrabet (Laboratoire de Recherche en Intelligence Stratégique - UH2MC - Université Hassan II [Casablanca]); Hicham Lamhammdi (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah)
    Abstract: Le doctorant est un acteur capital de la recherche scientifique au Maroc. Le rapport du Nouveau Modèle du Développement (NMD) souligne bel et bien la relation triptyque décisive : Doctorants (meilleurs étudiants de la nation)- Recherche Scientifique- Développement (CSMD, 2021, p.113). Néanmoins, les doctorants au Maroc endurent un problème scientifico-socio-économique critique. En théorie, le doctorant, en raison de son statut d'étudiant, fait partie de la population inactive. Mais en pratique, les doctorants pâtissent visiblement d'une impérieuse nécessité d'emploi. D'où le paradoxe théorico-empirique donnant naissance à la problématique de cette recherche : Les doctorants marocains sont-ils des chercheurs d'emploi ? Pourquoi ? Quelles sont les difficultés qu'ils en rencontrent ? Et quel est l'impact de ceci sur leur recherche de Thèse ? En utilisant le modèle mixte séquentiel explicatif (Creswell et Clark, 2006), par combinaison du sondage et du focus groupe comme outils d'enquêtes, les résultats de cette recherche confirment que les doctorants marocains sont des chercheurs d'emploi, en difficulté au sein du marché du travail et se sont impactés négativement sur leur recherche de Thèse.
    Keywords: recherche d'emploi,recherche scientifique,chômage,Doctorants marocains
    Date: 2021–07
  8. By: Sami Mestiri (FSEG Mahdia - Faculté des Sciences Économiques et de Gestion de Mahdia [Univ Monastir] - UM - Université de Monastir - University of Monastir); Sabrine Abdelghani
    Abstract: In this paper, our objective is to study dynamic of volatilities and correlations between the return of Tunisian stock market and commodity prices over the period 2006-2016. We used the DCC-GARCH model to determine the best strategy for hedging a portfolio against the risk of unfavorable price movements in the market. The empirical results show that the volatility of the Tunisian market can be influenced not only by its own past values or by domestic shocks but also by past shocks from international commodity markets. In addition we concluded that, the portfolio selected by a Tunisian investor should be composed mainly of stock assets rather than commodities.
    Abstract: L'objectif de ce papier est d'étudier la dynamique des volatilités et des corrélations entre le rendements du marché boursier tunisien et les prix des matières premières au cours de la période 2006-2016. Nous avons utilisé le modèle DCC-GARCH pour déterminer la meilleure stratégie de couverture d'un portefeuille contre le risque d'une évolution défavorable des prix sur le marché. Les résultats empiriques montrent que la volatilité du marché tunisien peut être influencée non seulement par ses propres valeurs passées ou par les chocs intérieurs mais aussi par les chocs passés provenant des marchés des matières premières internationaux. En plus nous avons conclue que, le portefeuille sélectionné par un investisseur tunisien doit être composé principalement des actifs boursiers plutôt que des matières premières. Mots clé : volatilité, dynamique des corrélations, DCC-GARCH, GARCH multivarié, stratégie de couverture, poids de portefeuille optimal.
    Keywords: volatilities,dynamics of correlation,DCC-GARCH,multivariate GARCH,hedging strategy,optimal portfolio weight
    Date: 2021–11–17

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