nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2021‒12‒13
four papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Employment Effects of Economic Sanctions in Iran By Kelishomi, Moghaddasi Ali; Nistico, Roberto
  2. The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios By Adam Remo; Aya Achour; Omar Chafik; Mr. Ales Bulir
  3. Private exploitation of the North-Western Sahara Aquifer System By Amine Chekireb; Julio Goncalves; Hubert Stahn; Agnes Tomini

  1. By: Kelishomi, Moghaddasi Ali (Loughborough University); Nistico, Roberto (University of Naples Federico II)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of economic sanctions on employment. We exploit the imposition of a series of unexpected and unprecedented international economic sanctions on Iran in 2012 and estimate the short-run effects of the change in import exposure on manufacturing employment at the industry level. Our estimates indicate that the sanctions led to an overall decline in the manufacturing employment growth rate by 16.4 percentage points. However, we uncover significant asymmetric effects across industries with different ex-ante import shares. Interestingly, the effects are mostly driven by labor-intensive industries and industries that heavily depend on imported inputs. This suggests that the overall negative impact of the sanctions on employment might be largely due to the decline in productivity experienced by industries with a high propensity to import inputs from abroad.
    Keywords: economic sanctions, employment, import exposure, labor reallocation
    JEL: F16 F51 J21
    Date: 2021–10
  2. By: Adam Remo; Aya Achour; Omar Chafik; Mr. Ales Bulir
    Abstract: The Morocco Policy Analysis model (MOPAM) was created in the Bank Al-Maghrib to simulate the impact of external developments, domestic macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms on key macroeconomic aggregates. We describe its structure and demonstrate its operation on two medium-term scenarios: (1) fiscal consolidation to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio and (2) the effects of the COVID-19 shock, including the endogenous fiscal and monetary policy response.
    Keywords: MOPAM policy option; B. policy scenario; B. scenario assumption; fiscal consolidation scenario; monetary policy response; COVID-19; Fiscal consolidation; Value-added tax; Global; Maghreb
    Date: 2021–04–30
  3. By: Amine Chekireb (Aix-Marseille Univ., CEREGE, AMSE, Marseille, France.); Julio Goncalves (Aix-Marseille Univ., CEREGE, Marseille, France.); Hubert Stahn (aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.); Agnes Tomini (aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.)
    Abstract: We formulate a hydro-economic model of the NorthWestern Sahara Aquifer System (NWSAS) to assess the effects of intensive pumping on the groundwater stock and examine the subsequent consequences of aquifer depletion. This large system comprises multi-layer reservoirs with vertical exchanges, all exploited under open access properties. We first develop a theoretical model to account for relevant features of the NWSAS by introducing, in the standard Gisser-Sanchez model, a non-stationary demand and quadratic stock-dependent cost functions. In the second step, we calibrate parameters values using data from the NWSAS over 1955-2000. We finally simulate the time evolution of the aquifer system with exploitation under an open-access regime. We specifically examine time trajectories of the piezometric levels in the two reservoirs, the natural outlets, and the modification of water balances. We find that natural outlets of the two reservoirs might be totally dried before 2050.
    Keywords: hydro-economic model, private pumping, multi aquifer system, groundwater-dependant ecosystems, semi-arid region, simulation
    JEL: C61 C62 Q15 Q25
    Date: 2021–11
  4. By: Ilyas El Ghordaf (Université Mohamed 1 Oujda MAROC); Abdelbari El Khamlichi (UCD - Université Chouaib Doukkali, IAE - UCA - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Clermont-Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
    Abstract: There is an important literature focused on profit warnings and its impact on stock returns. We provide evidence from Moroccan stock market which aims to become an African financial hub. Despite this practical improvement, academic researches that focused on this market are scarce and our study is a first investigation in this context. Using the event study methodology and a sample of companies listed in Casablanca Stock Exchange for the period of 2009 to 2016, we examined whether the effect of qualitative warning is more negative compared to quantitative warnings in a short event window. Our empirical findings show that the average abnormal return on the date of announcement is negative and statistically significant. The magnitude of this negative abnormal return is greater for qualitative warnings than quantitative ones.
    Keywords: Profit warnings,event study,returns,disclosure,Morocco,stock exchange JEL Classifications: G14
    Date: 2021–05–19

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