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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Yusuf Kenan Baðir; Muserref Kucukbayrak; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the trends in labor market informality in Turkey at two margins, unregistered employment and wage underreporting. We first document the stylized facts about the informal employment and its change over the past 15 years from 2004 to 2018. While doing this, we examine the heterogeneity in the informality across regions, sectors, firm properties and worker characteristics. Second, we decompose the change in the informality rate into its components using the Oaxaca-Blinder methodology. We find that the workforce composition change in gender, age, education, occupation, and industries explains half of the decline in the informality rate from 2004 to 2018. Finally, we analyze the wage underreporting behavior in Turkish labor market using both survey data and social security registry. We show that there has been a gap between the wages earned and the wages declared to Social Security Institution among registered employees. However, this discrepancy has declined significantly in recent years. |
| Keywords: | Informal employment, Wage underreporting, Turkey |
| JEL: | J20 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2119&r= |
| By: | H. Emre Yalcin; Cihan Yalcin |
| Abstract: | Due to environmental and energy security concerns, the efforts of countries to increase their share of renewable energy (NEW) and energy efficiency (ENVER) have become the main axis of energy policies at the global level. In addition to these concerns, these two energy sources are very important for the Turkish economy, as they have the potential to reduce the chronic current account deficit. In this study, using the country data of the World Bank for the period 1990-2018, the relations of YENI and ENVER with net imported energy share (imported energy dependence) and current account balance were tested econometrically (panel data fixed effects model) and scenario analyzes were made for Turkey. Econometric estimates reveal that the increases in NEW and ENVER are statistically related to the decrease in the share of net imported energy and the improvement in the current account balance. The effect of the increase in NEW on the net imported energy share is estimated to be stronger for the middle-income country group such as Turkey and the highly urbanized country group. It has been observed that the reducing impact of the increase in ENVER on the share of net imported energy is more pronounced in the relatively lower income and highly urbanized country groups. The improvement effect of the increase in NEW on the current account balance is more evident in the relatively high-income group and moderately urbanized countries such as Turkey. It is estimated that the improvement effect of the increase in ENVER on the current account balance is more pronounced in high and moderate urbanized countries and middle and high income country groups. The scenario analysis for Turkey, based on the estimation results, reveals that a decrease of up to 21 billion USD in Turkey's current account deficit in 2030 is possible with the reasonable increases to be provided in NEW and ENVER. |
| Keywords: | Energy efficiency, Renewable energy, Imported energy dependency, Current account balance |
| JEL: | C23 F32 O13 O24 Q4 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2129&r= |
| By: | Lily, Miriam Al; Liebenehm, Sabine; Waibel, Hermann |
| Keywords: | Risk and Uncertainty, Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae21:315152&r= |
| By: | Loewenthal, Amit (Tel Aviv University); Miaari, Sami H. (Tel Aviv University); Abrahams, Alexei (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | States, in their conflicts with militant groups embedded in civilian populations, often resort to policies of collective punishment to erode civilian support for the militants. We attempt to evaluate the efficacy of such policies in the context of the Gaza Strip, where Israel's blockade and military interventions, purportedly intended to erode support for Hamas, have inflicted hardship on the civilian population. We combine Palestinian public opinion data, Palestinian labor force surveys, and Palestinian fatalities data, to understand the relationship between exposure to Israeli policies and Palestinian support for militant factions. Our baseline strategy is a difference-in-differences specification that compares the gap in public opinion between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank during periods of intense punishment with the gap during periods when punishment is eased. Consistent with previous research, we find that Palestinian fatalities are associated with Palestinian support for more militant political factions. The effect is short-lived, however, dissipating after merely one quarter. Moreover the blockade of Gaza itself appears to be only weakly associated with support for militant factions. Overall, we find little evidence to suggest that Israeli security policies towards the Gaza Strip have any substantial lasting effect on Gazan support for militant factions, neither deterring nor provoking them relative to their West Bank counterparts. Our findings therefore call into question the logic of Israel's continued security policies towards Gaza, while also raising the possibility more generally that populations violently targeted by state actors may exhibit greater inertia in their support for militancy (or lack thereof) than is typically theorized in standard models of deterrence. |
| Keywords: | Israeli-Palestinian conflict, political preferences, public opinion, conflict, Palestine |
| JEL: | D72 D74 H56 J21 J45 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14776&r= |
| By: | Yapo G. N’Guessan (Anker Research Institute); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute); Ian Prates (Social Accountability Internacional) |
| Abstract: | This report estimates a Living Wage Reference Value for Rural Morocco for 2020. The report is part of a series of living wage reports for the Global Living Wage Coalition (GLWC) using the Anker methodology to estimate living wages in rural and urban areas around the world. |
| Keywords: | Living Wage, Morocco, Rural, Anker Methodology. |
| JEL: | D10 J13 J22 J30 J80 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:200324&r= |
| By: | Ilyas El Ghordaf (UCD, IAE - UCA); Abdelbari El Khamlichi (UCD, IAE - UCA) |
| Abstract: | There is an important literature focused on profit warnings and its impact on stock returns. We provide evidence from Moroccan stock market which aims to become an African financial hub. Despite this practical improvement, academic researches that focused on this market are scarce and our study is a first investigation in this context. Using the event study methodology and a sample of companies listed in Casablanca Stock Exchange for the period of 2009 to 2016, we examined whether the effect of qualitative warning is more negative compared to quantitative warnings in a short event window. Our empirical findings show that the average abnormal return on the date of announcement is negative and statistically significant. The magnitude of this negative abnormal return is greater for qualitative warnings than quantitative ones. |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2111.06655&r= |
| By: | Goedhuys, Micheline (UNU-MERIT); Grimm, Michael (University of Passau); Meysonnat, Aline (UNU-MERIT); Nillesen, Eleonora (UNU-MERIT); Reitmann, Ann-Kristin (University of Passau) |
| Abstract: | Youth empowerment, i.e., the ability of young people to take control over key aspects of their lives, has become a growing concern to achieving sustainable development worldwide. An increasing number of policy interventions is targeting the youth, but to monitor the progress a better understanding on what constitutes youth empowerment is needed. However, in contrast to the area of women's empowerment, little progress has been made on determining which domains of empowerment are important for youth and how they can be operationalized with indicators for measurement. We propose four domains of youth empowerment with corresponding indicators and use a well-established methodology for constructing a composite index. Using data from a household survey in Tunisia including a sample of young adults (18 to 30 years old), we assess youth empowerment in the proposed domains, explore correlates to empowerment and assess the link between youth empowerment and youth well-being. The proposed approach can help to monitor youth empowerment in various contexts and to evaluate the effectiveness of youth interventions. |
| Keywords: | youth empowerment, measurement, multidimensional index, well-being, Middle East and North Africa region |
| JEL: | C43 D91 D39 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14760&r= |
| By: | Yapo G. N’Guessan (Anker Research Institute); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute); Ian Prates (Social Accountability Internacional) |
| Abstract: | This report estimates a Living Wage Reference Value for Rural Tunisia for 2020. The report is part of a series of living wage reports for the Global Living Wage Coalition (GLWC) using the Anker methodology to estimate living wages in rural and urban areas around the world. |
| Keywords: | Living Wage, Tunisia, Rural, Anker Methodology. |
| JEL: | D10 J13 J22 J30 J80 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:200319&r= |
| By: | Daniel Baksa; Mr. Ales Bulir; Mr. Roberto Cardarelli |
| Abstract: | The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. The model focuses on only a few variables that are consistent with the New Keynesian framework. Thanks to its simplicity, it facilitates an initial and intuitive understanding of monetary and fiscal policy transmission channels, and their main impact on economic activity. The model is adapted to Morocco and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of policy responses to a slower-than-expected recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, under different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, Morocco, Fiscal Multiplier; fiscal policy transmission channels; Policy reaction function; B. aggregate supply; peg regime; fiscal policy transmission mechanisms; Exchange rate arrangements; Real exchange rates; Output gap; Inflation targeting; Maghreb; Global |
| Date: | 2021–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/190&r= |
| By: | Nabieyan, Sedigheh; Safaei, Shiva Safaei, Shiva; Mehrabi, Hosein |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae21:315848&r= |
| By: | Bittmann, Thomas; Zamani, Omid; Loy, Jens-Peter |
| Keywords: | Health Economics and Policy, Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae21:315311&r= |
| By: | Erbahar, Aksel; Rebeyrol, Vincent |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that Turkish manufacturing exporters export goods that they have not pro-duced and thus also act as trade intermediaries. This exporting of “sourced” products is ubiquitous across firms, products, and destinations. Beyond these facts, the main contribution of the paper is to show that sourced exports are more sensitive to gravity determinants than produced exports at the aggregate level, but at the firm level, this relationship is reversed. We rationalize these findings by allowing producers to act as intermediaries in a model where profitability at the product-destination level is stochastic and correlated across markets. We provide empirical evidence for the model’s core mechanism. |
| Keywords: | international trade; intermediaries; carry-along trade; multi-product firms |
| JEL: | F12 F14 L2 |
| Date: | 2021–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:126178&r= |
| By: | Hakan Kara (Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey); Cagri Sarikaya (CBRT) |
| Abstract: | Türkiye’de 2006 yılında enflasyon hedeflemesine geçildiği dönemden itibaren 2017 yılına kadar enflasyon tek hanelerde istikrarlı seyretmiş, 2017 yılından itibaren ise çift haneli düzeylerde oynak bir seyir izlemiştir. Enflasyon dinamiklerindeki bu değişimin yakından incelenmesi enflasyonla mücadele programlarının tasarımı açısından önem taşımaktadır. Bu doğrultuda çalışma, 2006-2021 yılları arasında beklentiler ve fiyatlama davranışlarındaki değişimi mercek altına almaktadır. Bulgularımız, 2017 sonrasında enflasyonun çıpalanma derecesinin zayıfladığını, fiyat dinamiklerinde belirgin değişimler olduğunu, bu çerçevede özellikle enflasyon katılığının ve kur geçişkenliğinin önemli ölçüde arttığını göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, beklentilerin ve fiyatlama davranışlarının düzelmesi açısından hedeflere olan güvenin yeniden tesis edilmesinin önemine işaret etmektedir. |
| Keywords: | Enflasyon, Phillips eğrisi, Zaman serisi modelleri, Türkiye. |
| JEL: | C22 C32 C51 E31 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2121&r= |