nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2021‒09‒06
eighteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The impact of Brexit on Israel and neighbouring Arab states in times of the COVID-19 crisis By Kohnert, Dirk
  2. Impact of financial market development on the CO2 Emissions in GCC countries By Mahmood, Haider
  4. The Role and Importance of International Real Estate Investment in Emerging Economies: Turkey Case By Gizem Ulusoy; Yeim Tanrvermi
  5. Assessment of the Application of Financial Leasing in the Real Estate Sector and the Possibility of Increasing Its Effectiveness in Turkey By Harun Tanrivermis; Ilhan Yildirim; Erol Demír
  6. Development of Urban Cultural Center Area Project with Strategic Planning Approach: A Case Study of Atatürk Cultural Center in Ankara, Turkey By Harun Tanrivermis; Md Moynul Ahsan; Sinan Güne; Aylin Blengabs; Orhan Matarac
  7. The Problems of Farmland Fragmentation and Assessment of Legal Regulations for The Prevention of Farmland Fragmentation in Turkey By Harun Tanrivermis; Amani Uisso
  8. Economic Assessment of Timeshare Investment in Thermal Tourism and Evaluation of Real Estate Development and Management: The Case of Ankara Province in Turkey By Yeim Tanrvermi; Esra Ural Keskin; Harun Tanrivermis
  9. Impact of good governance on the performance of tunisian companies listed on the BVMT By Ncib, Adel; khalfallah, Fatma
  10. Hedonic Analysis of Housing Demand Dynamics as a Driving Force of Urban Sprawl in Ankara By Gizem Hayrullahoglu; Yeim Aliefendio Tanrvermi
  11. Economic Aspects of Housing Investments and The Requirement of Rational Management Strategies for Mass Housing Facilities in Ankara Province of Turkey By Esra Keskin; Yeim Tanrvermi; Harun Tanrivermis
  12. Jordan: Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Augmentation of Access, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan By International Monetary Fund
  13. Sudan’s political marketplace in 2021: public and political finance, the Juba agreement and contests By Gallopin, Jean-Baptiste; Thomas, Eddie; Detzner, Sarah; De Waal, Alex
  14. Rainfall shocks, per capita income and rural out-migration By Nathan Delacrétaz; Bruno Lanz; Amir Delju; Etienne Piguet
  15. Analysis of Land Ownership and Mobility in Sprawl Areas of Big Cities: The Case of Ankara Province By Harun Tanrivermis; Parla Gunes
  16. Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary-Fiscal Stabilization By Markus Kirchner; Malte Rieth
  17. Entre innovation et tradition, la problématique des recompositions de la gouvernance territoriale en Algérie By Karima Benamara-Sait
  18. جودة مؤشرات الحوكمة وأثرها في التقليل من تقلبات صافي الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر في دول MENA للفترة 1996-2017 : مقاربة نموذج بانل الديناميكي By Khouiled, Brahim; Saheb, Oualid

  1. By: Kohnert, Dirk
    Abstract: The combined impact of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic on British foreign- and trade relations to Israel and its Arab neighbours constitute a particularly sensitive case. A destabilization of these countries could impact seriously stability and security, not just of the Middle-East region, but on the whole world. So far, the preliminary effects are ambivalent. Whereas Britons entertained reasoned hope for a ‘Corona miracle’ and a marvellous economic recovery in 2021, the prospects for Israel, the occupied Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt were less rosy. Presumably, Brexit is likely to harm the United Kingdom in the medium and long run. The post-Brexit impact on Israel and its Arab neighbours will be negative as well, but probably only be felt in the medium and long term also. However, the direct and indirect negative effects of the global COVID-19 crisis will by far outdo the Brexit impact.
    Keywords: Brexit, COVID-19-pandemic, Corona, economic growth, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, United Kingdom, international trade, free trade area, customs union, Anglosphere,
    JEL: F13 F15 F22 F52 F68 I14 N1 N40 O24 O5 Z13
    Date: 2021–08–08
  2. By: Mahmood, Haider
    Abstract: inancial development market (FMD) may have positive or negative environmental consequences. This research investigated the effects of FMD and income on CO2 emissions in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries during 1980-2018. We found that income had positive effect but FMD had insignificant impact on emissions in GCC panel. Then, we tested these effects in the individual country time series and found that income had positive impact in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman and had insignificant effect in other GCC countries in long run. Effect of FMD was positive in Oman, was negative in UAE and was insignificant in rest of GCC countries. Effect of income was positive in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and was insignificant for other countries in short run. The effect of FMD was positive in Kuwait and was negative in UAE. We recommend UAE to expand the financial market and suggest Oman and Kuwait to have a check on the financially supported pollution-oriented activities.
    Keywords: financial market development, CO2 emissions, GCC
    JEL: Q53
    Date: 2020–06–29
  3. By: Houda El Ferachi (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl); Hicham Bouchartat (UIC - Université Internationale de Casablanca)
    Abstract: This research aims to establish the link between the country of origin (made in) and the consumer buying behavior, through the exploration of pasta consumption in Morocco. The main objectives of this study are to determine the preferences of the Moroccan consumers (current and potential) regarding pasta products that are made in Morocco as opposed to the imported ones; to gage their perception of the Moroccan brands; and to identify the key purchasing factors of the "made in Morocco" pasta. Our methodological choice focused on the quantitative method known as a sample survey. The study was carried out on 105 individuals; 15 cities were represented with, however, dominance of the Rabat-Salé region, and a rich diversity in terms of family situations, ages, and socio-professional categories. The questionnaire was administered face to face in part and online for the remainder. It appears that Moroccans consume pasta of Moroccan origin more than pasta of foreign origin. This preference is not explained by ethnocentrism as one would expect and would not necessarily reflect the behavior of an engaged, economically responsible, or culturally attached citizen. It is explained by intrinsic determinants such as price, quality, and availability of Moroccan pasta. For these same reasons, the perception of Moroccan pasta is rather positive. This perception is upheld by the reputation of the Moroccan brands, in particular the brands Tria and Dari (2021). The results we have achieved are generally satisfactory, but slightly offend the findings of previous studies on the subject.
    Abstract: Cette recherche vise à établir le lien entre le pays d'origine (made in) et le comportement d'achat du consommateur, à travers l'exploration de la consommation de pâtes au Maroc. Les principaux objectifs de cette étude sont de déterminer les préférences des consommateurs marocains (actuels et potentiels) concernant les produits de pâtes qui sont fabriqués au Maroc par opposition aux produits importés ; mesurer la perception des marques marocaines ; et d'identifier les facteurs clés d'achat des pâtes « made in Morocco ». Notre choix méthodologique a porté sur la méthode quantitative dit enquête par sondage. L'étude a été réalisée auprès de 105 individus ; 15 villes ont été représentées avec toutefois une domination de la région Rabat-Salé, et une riche diversité en termes de situations familiales, d'âges, et de catégories socioprofessionnelles. Le questionnaire a été administré en face à face en partie et en ligne pour le reste. Il apparaît que les Marocains consomment plus de pâtes d'origine marocaine que de pâtes d'origine étrangère. Cette préférence ne s'explique pas par l'ethnocentrisme comme on pourrait s'y attendre et ne refléterait pas nécessairement le comportement d'un citoyen engagé, économiquement responsable ou culturellement attaché. Elle s'explique par des déterminants intrinsèques tels que le prix, la qualité et la disponibilité des pâtes marocaines. Pour ces mêmes raisons, la perception des pâtes marocaines est plutôt positive. Cette perception est confortée par la notoriété des marques marocaines, notamment les marques Tria et Dari (2021). Les résultats auxquels nous avons abouti sont satisfaisants dans l'ensemble, mais heurtent légèrement les trouvailles d'études précédentes sur le sujet.
    Keywords: Country of origin,Perception,Key Decision Factors,Made in Morocco,Pays d'origine,Facteurs de Décision Clés,Made in Maroc
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Gizem Ulusoy; Yeim Tanrvermi
    Abstract: Globalization, foreign direct investments (FDI) and international real estate investments have been known as most popular issues in recent years. The fourth phase of globalization have “caused such a multilayered change including economic, political, socio-cultural areas. The free movement of capital is known as the most important component of the economic dimension of globalization taken together the conditions of FDI and it has been determined that real estate investment has an increased share throughout the total investment figures in Turkey. Within this respect it has been provided that internationalized real estate investments will play a leading role for emerging economies. Developing economies need to overcome their own problems in the development process regarding their insufficient capital accumulation and technological deficiencies as well as low income and low savings to reach the capital accumulation they need which takes a very long term. Therefore, it seems natural that they aim to obtain the investment capital from global capital within development process. It is also known that FDI offers important profit opportunities not only for the host country but also for the country investing. It is observed that the effects of the strategies to be implemented at both national and regional levels by both sides of the investments where the mutual win-win approach is valid direct this process. Referring to the mentioned effects in specific to Turkey, FDI is essential for the economy as a developing economy. Legal regulations and incentives to attract investments creates an effective and favorable environment in Turkey. Turkey does not only attract foreign investment, but also invests in, shows that having a role in multiple areas of the global economy. This paper aims to reveal the relationship between the foreign real estate investments and the macroeconomic indicators in Turkey using both primary and secondary data as well as tackling the studies examining the FDI received in Turkey briefly. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. In the next section a quick literature review including examples of developing economies is presented, then legal dimensions regarding FDI in Turkey in addition to international law have been discussed. Section 3 outlines the economic and political climate in Turkey between the years 2007-2019 prior to tackling with fieldwork results (primary data) in the light of the secondary data. Section 4 concludes the paper and propose a solution for the future perspective.
    Keywords: emerging economies; Foreign Direct Investment; Globalization; Real Estate Investment
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2021–01–01
  5. By: Harun Tanrivermis; Ilhan Yildirim; Erol Demír
    Abstract: Financial leasing, which is widely used in medium-term financing of investments in many countries, provides great advantages in meeting the increasing demands of the working capital of organizations. Financial leasing, which is a unique transaction that consists of the combination of three different transactions such as medium-term investment loan, lease, instalment sales, and which have a different quality, is a financing method that is very close to medium-term loan adopted in Turkey. Financial leasing, whose legal infrastructure was first established and backed by the Financial Leasing Law No. 3226 of 1985, was put into its application within the scope of the financial leasing, factoring, and financing companies under Law No. 6361 in 2012. To meet the housing demands, within the scope of Law No. 5582 on the Housing Finance System, consumers are provided with the opportunity to provide long-term funds through financial leasing. In addition, apart from being a means of financing in real estate projects by participation banks and financial leasing companies, it is also used as a sales method in housing finance as a real estate acquisition method. The real estate sector in Turkey greatly contributes to the economy as a hub of employment and stimulates the growth of several sectors, so the consideration of financing of real estate is essential. In the period of 2010-2020 in Turkey, the share of financial leasing transactions in total building investments were decreased by 1% at the end of 2020. The share of financial leasing transaction volume in total fixed investments was around 2% at the end of 2020. In the period examined, the share of construction, real estate brokerage, leasing and operating activities and consumer housing finance in the gross transaction volume of financial leasing was around 20-30% in the period before 2018 but fell below 20% in 2019 and 2020. In the field of financial leasing, especially the sell and lease method, it attracts attention as an Islamic financing model in the financing of commercial real estate investments and housing acquisition. In this study, analysis of the applications of the financial leasing in the real estate sector in Turkey was analysed in aspects of legal, economic, and technical, and the identification of problems, the solution was put forward. Through various data published by financial leasing companies and participation banks and application examples, the conditions of success in the real estate sector were examined by taking into account the development process according to the periods, although it provides various advantages, the main reasons for the lack of widespread and weak development of financial leasing transactions in Turkey were determined. Literature review and regulatory analysis were conducted in the study and the current implementation of the financial leasing method in the real estate sector and its impact on the development of the real estate sector were examined. Based upon the results of the interviews and surveys conducted with the managers and experts of financial leasing companies and the beneficiaries of this vehicle, economic analysis of the use of financial leasing in real estate development and real estate investments, basic application problems and opportunities for the development of financing of financial leasing and real estate investments were evaluated. It is noteworthy that financial leasing companies and participation banks have an important role in the current practice and the employment of real estate development and real estate investments and financing experts in both enterprises is mandatory to increase the success of the implementation of the model.
    Keywords: commercial real estate; Financial leasing; residential investment; sell and leaseback
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2021–01–01
  6. By: Harun Tanrivermis; Md Moynul Ahsan; Sinan Güne; Aylin Blengabs; Orhan Matarac
    Abstract: Integrated strategic urban planning in many cities and countries, as well as analysis of current situation in local development, urban transformation and urban conservation together with the participation of all stakeholders in various activities, poses an impact on the success of a project. It is possible to create a useful model with the participation of local people and other stakeholders in the use of urban space, conservation of areas and monuments of natural and historical value and in this way, the success of sustainable urban revitalization at the local level can be improved. In order to develop sustainable approaches to the conservation and revitalization of archaeological, historical and urban areas, it is necessary to increase compliance with local community values, contemporary needs, public participation and stakeholder satisfaction levels. Because, in the analysis of urban development, conservation and real estate projects through a strategic planning approach with the participation of local people and the private sector is considered among the main conditions for ensuring the sustainability of projects. In recent years, importance and priority have been given to the analysis of open and green areas, parks, conservation areas and urban transformation implementation projects in cities, and integrating strategic planning model has adding value in the process. In the city centre of Ankara province, which is the capital of Turkey, there are several large areas among which the most important is Ataturk Cultural Center (AKM) area, which is an historical centre of the city in the Zubeyde Hanm neighborhood of Altindag District. In this study, physical, economic, legal, social and environmental indicators of Atatürk Cultural Center area were determined. In addition to ensuring the preservation and development of historic urban spaces, opportunities for the development of an adequate and effective strategic model and practice-based management tools were evaluated. In the analysis of AKM case study, the relationship between the historical development and the environment of the area was revealed by using the current situation analysis and region data. Based on historical and cultural characteristics and stakeholder views of the area, current use of status and problem analysis of region called the green belt and historical city centre of Ankara Province was conducted. With the data obtained, the difference/gap analysis related to the region was performed and the possible risks were examined in various aspects. In addition to the survey work, project alternatives were determined by taking into account the property and zoning data related to the region, the historical, cultural and symbolic characteristics of the region, and the most appropriate alternative was selected using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). According to the most appropriate alternative, market and competitiveness conditions were examined, and strategic goals were determined at the real estate level by taking into account the compatibility of the project alternative with the relevant existing corporate-macro strategic plans. According to the income-generating approaches included in the selected project, the path of cost and income estimation was taken and the outline of the strategic action plan was presented by designing the process for the strategic spatial plan. According to the research results, it has emphasized that in real estate development project model with the strategic planning approach, competitive real estate markets and the functioning logic of the current region for sustainable (economic, environmental and social) impacts, the potentials and benefits should be taken into account. According to the results of the field study, it has revealed that the AKM area should be a cultural centre by function; and if integrated with its surroundings, especially the historical city centre it will have a modern appearance that preserves its historical and cultural nature. In addition, according to the results of the competitor analysis and gap analysis, it was determined that the project alternative envisaged to be carried out in the region has a competitive advantage and is compatible with the strategic plans already in practice. The fact that the strategic action plan is compatible with the results of fieldwork shows that the strategic planning approach is consistent in itself. Finally, monitoring and evaluation of the strategic plan with the perspective of 10P model for providing corporate level action. In addition, considering that corporate real estate needs to be increasingly integrated into business strategy, it should be emphasized that corporate real estate strategy and corporate strategy should be harmonized in specialized areas such as AKM.
    Keywords: Historic city centre; Strategic alignment and project development; Strategic Planning; sustainability
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2021–01–01
  7. By: Harun Tanrivermis; Amani Uisso
    Abstract: Land resources which are exclusively saving the farming activities, remains inadequate in aspects of size, fertility and productivity rate while operations in farmlands are observed to be fragmented and scattered. The official data reveals that the average farmland size per households in 2016 was 7.0 parcel unit. It is observed that small-scale farm enterprises are widespread, and the average size of enterprises is insufficient and the distribution of lands between the regions and within the households is uneven. Due to increasing population pressure and inadequacy of non-agricultural employment opportunities, land fragmentation remains as a cumulative challenge to land management and administration. To eliminate this problem, legal arrangements have been made and land consolidation projects have been carried out. In the cause of preventing fragmentation to productive arable farmland due to inheritance and sales of agricultural lands to non-agricultural tenacities, the parliament has made some amendments to some of the sections in Soil Conservation and Land Use Law in 2014 concerning the compulsory farmland ownership and land transfer after inheritance and the prevention of land fragmentation which is frequently emerged due to land selling’s. Nevertheless, the Ministry responsible may only allow the transfer of land by considering certain criteria such as farm size, the sufficient level of revenue generated from the farmland, together with economic integrity of farmland. The aim of the research were to examine the legislations which were enacted to prevent the land fragmentation in agriculture in Turkey, legal lacunas and inadequacies observed in the cause of implementations, and the necessary measures to be taken to solve the problems were outlined. The research results aim at evaluating the causes of disputes over land transfer and to suggest proper solutions to resolve land ownership’s issues based on national survey results as secondary and primary data. Primary data were obtained through the survey and the findings reveal that the main deviations arise from the existing law both at national and in the case of Ankara province. On the other hand, the evaluations of research results were made based on the obtained data from national institutions, and the results of the interviews with the landowners and representative leaders alias “mukhtar”. In-depth interviews and questionnaires were applied in 95 sub-settlements of the district. Interviews were also conducted with a total number of 5 landowners and users in each village, including the neighbourhood representative leaders. Land resources, land distribution based on use types, land ownership, fragmentation and the trends of the enterprises were examined based on the analysis of data obtained from a total of 500 questionnaires. The impacts of legal regulation on land use and land fragmentation were examined and then a situation analysis was conducted in terms of farmland in Polatl district, one of the oldest human settlements in Anatolia. It is noteworthy that the change in land assets and use in the district is slow, but the practices of tenancy and sharecropping change yearly. It is obviously determined that newly legal provisions and regulations on land resources has a notably impact on the land tenure system, sustainability, land markets and land management strategies and land fragmentations in Turkey. In addition, these regulations have reduced the land mobility and transfer option in local markets and affect land rent and current capitalization rates.
    Keywords: farmland markets; fragmentation and farm size; heritage sales permit and landownership transfer; Productive farmland
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2021–01–01
  8. By: Yeim Tanrvermi; Esra Ural Keskin; Harun Tanrivermis
    Abstract: The investments for the development of thermal timeshare facilities have started to grow rapidly. Timeshare property can be defined as a guaranteed, transferable and alternative right that allows its owner(s) to have a limited-term vacation, guarantees to spend at the same time and place every year, provides comfort and legally registered in the land registry. Timeshare properties are used only during a certain period of the year, leasing the remaining times to prevent the facilities from being idle, and this investment model allows a significant contribution to the local economy through the right holders. In this study, the development of timeshare investments in the field of thermal tourism has been examined in general, and in the second stage, interviews were conducted with the right holders and investors of timeshare investments in selected districts of Ankara Province. According to the Turkish Legal System ,the development and management of timeshare investment projects, the buildings and independent sections in the timeshare system must be residential properties, the beneficiary period of each property right holders should be not less than 15 days, the timeshare right can be transferred and left as a heritage to heirs, the facilities must be furnished with the annual maintenance-repair and other operating expenses equally shared, the facilities can be rented in case it cannot be used by the right holders, and the management of the facilities must be realized in accordance with the legal regulations regarding the condominium properties. The research results represent that in timeshare projects based on a condominium-principled ownership system; the total present value of the property price paid by the right owners for a certain use in the selected period of the year and the annual operating expenses are much higher than the present value of the annual rental prices, there is an option to have a holiday in comfortable conditions with the sum of the current value of the annual operating expenses and the cost of the timeshare acquisition, and consequently, timeshare investments are not rational. In the districts where field studies were conducted, although the rental prices/fees and sales values of the real estate subject to timeshare properties are 2-3 times higher than the equivalent properties in the district centre, it has been determined that the attraction of timeshare investments is low for the right holders. It should be emphasized that timeshare facilities need to be analyzed together with both timeshare investor and project developer, and that project development, appraisals, financing, construction, facility and property management services are carried out under the responsibility of real estate development and management experts to increase the project and investment success.
    Keywords: condominium and timeshare investments; facility and asset management.; Geothermal resources and thermal facility projects; Project Appraisal
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2021–01–01
  9. By: Ncib, Adel; khalfallah, Fatma
    Abstract: The goal of our research is to see how governance systems affect the performance of Tunisian businesses. Empirical validation of a panel of 100 Tunisian companies over a 10-year period from 2008 to 2018 demonstrates that the board of directors' makeup, compensation system, shareholder rights, and disclosure of financial information are all important factors.
    Keywords: Corporate Governance, Performance, Board of directors, BVMT
    JEL: M19
    Date: 2021–08–20
  10. By: Gizem Hayrullahoglu; Yeim Aliefendio Tanrvermi
    Abstract: In Ankara, capital of Turkey, the neoliberalism in the 1980’s has differentiated the manner of housing supply. The period of housing for all segments of society have begun besides affordable housing. Such an economic development has caused urban sprawl with the impacts of land speculation, increase in transportation facilities and some incorrect public policies. All these drivers of urban sprawl are most closely associated with the housing market, so housing demand dynamics in particular are become the main determinants of uncontrolled urban growth. The leapfrog development of Ankara’s western corridor in the last four decades remains a challenge for central-local governments. Land consumption, insufficient public transport for the expanding urban area, socio-spatial segregation, and urban infrastructure imposing additional financial burden threaten both environmental and economic sustainability. Today, although there are enough vacant lots in the city center, the city is growing outward and there is great pressure on the rural-urban fridge where farming still occurs. Furthermore, spatial development in this region and upper scale plan decisions are in conflict with each other. It is obvious that the driving forces of urban sprawl will be better understood by determining the housing demand dynamics. In this study, a hedonic model is established to analyze the dynamics of housing demand, which is the hidden driving force of urban sprawl in Ankara. The in-situ study including 303 face-to-face surveys is conducted in Alacaatli and Yasamkent Neighborhoods -approximately the size of 2,420 hectares- on June 2018 and data obtained as a result of the survey are used as variables in the hedonic model. The findings reveal that factors such as security and crime that reduce welfare in the city center and low-quality or traditional housing types in the city center stimulate the urban expansion towards large open spaces. The results show that socioeconomic status and lifestyles are related with the preference to live in urban sprawl areas, and the city center is not preferred for residential purposes since it is seen as unsafe and chaotic. It is proposed that the domain-specific housing demand dynamics in urban sprawl areas must be considered in spatial planning assumptions for the sustainable development of Ankara.
    Keywords: Hedonic Pricing; Housing demand; Urban Sprawl
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2021–01–01
  11. By: Esra Keskin; Yeim Tanrvermi; Harun Tanrivermis
    Abstract: The need for housing has continued to increase rapidly due to migration and population growth. The excess demand for urban centres in particular has led to an increase in land prices and therefore the transition to tall buildings has accelerated. The housing ownership rate for households in the urban areas is observed to be 60%, and investment in housing acquisition has been rapidly increased over the last 10 years. In addition, households with more than one residence in cities or second housing investments had increased continually. With the increase in high-rise buildings over time, management problems also began to arise. In order to meet the social needs of the owners sitting in high-rise buildings, special arrangements were needed to address the problems arising from the existence of areas subject to common area use of real estate. In order to solve the existing problems, the Law No. 634 dated 23.06.1965 were enacted and come into force and then the amendment of the Law No. 5711 with the title of “Special Provisions Concerning Condominium Buildings” together with the Law No. 634 article 66 and other clauses have been added. Management of detached housing, multi-storey housing and sheltered sites and co-operative sites is carried out by the management chosen by the floor owners board according to the Law No. 634.Nevertheless, there are significant problems in the management of common areas by floor owners in terms of service delivery, quality of service and compliance with legislation. It is not possible for floor owners to be experts in real estate law, facility, and real estate management in general and to provide management services in accordance with the legislation. In the last two decades, it is observed that different models are applied together in the management of housing structures due to the increasing management problems and the changing of nature of housing investments. These are such as sites managed by floor owners, real estate in which management services are partially or completely outsourced, and facilities managed by cooperatives. In according to building regulations such as; parking, elevator, waste water discharge, energy performance, thermal insulation, shelter, central heating, fire protection, annual management fee payment, notification law and work times regulations, professional practices in building management is missing and need to be implemented to fil the gap. In the field study, the results of in-depth interviews, surveys and observations made with the buildings and site managers in the northern part of Ankara Urban Transformation Project and Dikmen Valley Urban Transformation Project were evaluated. In the buildings and site managers’ survey; questions were asked regarding the demographic characteristics of the interviewees, the formation of the management bodies, the management model of the site, management problems and development opportunities. In this way, attention was paid into analyzing the management of condominium buildings in the transformation areas, identifying the problems that restrict development opportunities, and conducting interviews within the framework of questions prepared to analyze the approaches of managers and users to management of condominium buildings. In the case of Turkey, it is observed that managers were chosen by the floor owners in many housing projects. The chosen manager is usually coming from one of the floor owners, but in some cases he or she may come from outside and usually a non-professional. However, the management of condominium buildings is also an area that requires some expertise to deal with. Leaving the management of many floor owners and structures with common and joint ownership areas to persons with no legal expertise raises many problems in practice. As a result of poor management practices, there are losses in collection management fees and value losses due to the increase in vacancy rates. In the projects where management is carried out by a facility management firm and expertise, it is seen that existing problems are resolved easily and the demand for the projects increases. Particularly in the complex buildings or super structure with social facilities, different security gates and personnel, it has encountered that there is a problem of high dues and costs which must be reduced from execution of management by a facility management company makes an effective difference in solving existing problems. The fact that the management of the mass housing by a facility management company brings a higher burden in terms of cost, it is seen that the management of these real estate by facility managers provides higher profit gains in the long run. However, in small housing projects, the difference in the tax rate is a deterrent to the transfer of management to a professional facility management company. Lack of adequate knowledge and experience of managers chosen among floor owners or from outside; personnel and heating costs, leasing of common areas, etc., causes wrong decisions in many aspects and causes cost increases in the long run. When the selected two large mass housing settlements in Ankara province were examined, it is concluded that the success of the facility management has an important role in the formation of brand value. In recent years, the demand for brand housing has increased. It is observed that the success in facility management was influential in the increase in demand of housing investment. In addition, the management of facilities by professional companies is important to ensure the sustainability of residential buildings. It has been found that facility management, which is seen as an interdisciplinary field of study, has become a requirement in residences and additional social and commercial buildings within the framework of the examples studied, has a direct effect on raising the satisfaction ratings of residents and in particular increasing the value of investment.
    Keywords: economics of housing investments; facility management and urban transformation area; housing; Housing management
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2021–01–01
  12. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Early success in containing the spread of COVID-19 has been challenged by two subsequent waves of the pandemic. Timely and effective fiscal and monetary policy responses helped contain the contraction in activity to 1.6 percent in 2020, shallower than the 3 percent expected at the first review. The authorities have also made significant efforts to protect jobs and the most vulnerable. Still, unemployment has surged to a record 25 percent in Q4 2020, with youth unemployment at 55 percent. The impact on fiscal and external balances has been significant, with public debt reaching 88 percent of GDP at end-2020. Nonetheless, despite the challenges from new virus variants and weaker tourism prospects, macroeconomic stability has been maintained, thanks to the authorities’ proactive policy stance; and a moderate 2 percent growth rate is projected for 2021 (slightly below the 2.5 percent projected in the first review), with a near-full reopening expected in the summer. The new parliament extended a vote of confidence to the incoming government in January, and approved the 2021 budget—consistent with the program—in February.
    Date: 2021–08–24
  13. By: Gallopin, Jean-Baptiste; Thomas, Eddie; Detzner, Sarah; De Waal, Alex
    Abstract: This paper examines the continuities and changes in Sudan’s political economy and political marketplace in the two years since the popular uprising that overthrew the regime of former president Omar alBashir, and the subsequent formation of a military-civilian transitional government. The government of Sovereignty Council Chairman Abd al-Fattah al-Burhan and Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok has the stated goals (among others) of transitioning to full civilian government, achieving peace with armed groups, and stabilizing and reforming the economy. Progress has been achieved on all these fronts. Nonetheless, key aspects of Sudan’s political economy remain unchanged, especially underlying hyper-exploitation of labour and natural resources, a prominent role for businesses associated with the leaders of the security sector, and peace agreements incentivized by promises of material rewards provided through governmental office. Transactional politics continue to trump institutional and civic politics, making it harder to reform these aspects of an inequitable and predatory economy.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2021–05
  14. By: Nathan Delacrétaz; Bruno Lanz; Amir Delju; Etienne Piguet
    Abstract: Rural regions are more exposed to rainfall shocks, notably through agriculture, and understanding how local population adapt to changes in the climate is an important policy challenge. In this paper we exploit longitudinal data for Turkish provinces from 2008 to 2018 together with precipitation records over more than 30 years to study how shocks to 12-month standard precipitation index (SPI) affect out-migration across rural, transitional and urban regions, and we document how these impacts are channeled through local income, agricultural GDP, and conflicts. Based on fixed effect regressions controlling for unobserved heterogeneity across provinces and over time, we find evidence that negative SPI shocks are associated with higher out-migration in rural provinces. We also show that the relationship is fully mediated by per capita GDP, whereas agricultural GDP and conflicts do not play a role.
    Keywords: out-migration; climate change; rainfall; urbanization; per capita income; agriculture; conflicts
    JEL: F22 O15 R23 Q54
    Date: 2021–08
  15. By: Harun Tanrivermis; Parla Gunes
    Abstract: Urban development, growth, sprawl, expansion and fringe issues have gained special importance both in spatial planning and infrastructure investments and in the analysis of real estate markets. Approaches based on Geographic Information Systems and fractal analysis are often used in the analysis of urban growth and spatial change, and the states of compact (concentrated) or fringed (spread) are measured as an indicator of urban space use efficiency. Fractal analysis, based on fractal geometry, contributes to the quantitative study of the morphology of objects. In this sense, by determining fractal dimension and lacunarity index the change in space over time and especially by analysing the change in land use and land cover, the structure of spatial organization, urban growth and development of the built environment can be analysed. Although many research has been conducted on the analysis of urban development processes and analysis of urban morphology, it has been found that there are no studies on spatial pattern in Ankara by using fractal analysis. This paper will contribute to the questioning of urban spatial dynamics and to the assessment of its possible effects on real estate market and location choice of landowners. In addition, in the process of historical development in the city, it is necessary to determine the orientation of urban sprawl, real estate investments and, in particular, the land ownership change or the evaluation of speculative trends depending on the mobility of zoning in the immediate vicinity of the city. The determination of the time between the acquisition of land in the city and the date of sale and the determination of the main factors that affect the relocation of people in the city between places were evaluated according to the results of the survey applied to owners, real estate market intermediaries and other stakeholders. When the observations and research results conducted in the studied settlements are put together, it was determined that there were similarities between the fractal dimension values and the physical structure specificities of the space. The values obtained as a result of computation through software show that urban spaces containing elements that contribute to urban life have fractal dimensions at different scales. In addition to the distribution analysis depending on the spatial planning process in the districts and neighbourhoods selected from the city of Ankara, the transfer of hands of land and the time of possession were also examined during the planning process. By analysing Land Registry records, zoning plans and survey data together, the existence of speculation in land markets in selected settlements was examined on the basis of mobility in land markets during planning periods. In the study, urban sprawl, change in land use and mobility analysis of landowners (mobility) were discussed according to the results of the general situation analysis and fieldwork conducted in selected neighbourhoods. It has been observed that there is a strong relationships between spatial planning studies and infrastructure investments and urban sprawl in the selected neighbourhoods of the city, and the characteristics of areas that landowners prefer to the results of planning studies. Based on the outcomes related to the development of spaces in cities it has been shown that planning carried out with future predictions can significantly contribute to the sustainability.
    Keywords: Landowners; Mobility and Fractal analysis; Sprawl and fringe; Urban Growth
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2021–01–01
  16. By: Markus Kirchner; Malte Rieth
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilization policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplification between default beliefs, exchange rate and inflation movements. We then use the estimated model to study the implications of sovereign risk for stability, fiscal and monetary policy, and their interaction. We find that a relatively strong fiscal feedback from deficits to taxes, some exchange rate targeting, or a monetary response to default premia are more effective and efficient stabilization tools than hawkish inflation targeting.
    Keywords: Small open economies, sovereign risk, monetary policy, exchange rates, business cycles, DSGE models
    JEL: E58 E63 F41
    Date: 2021
  17. By: Karima Benamara-Sait (UMMTO - Université Mouloud Mammeri [Tizi Ouzou], UMAOB - Université Mohamed Akli Ouelhadj de Bouira)
    Abstract: For a long time in Algeria, the state has been the main actor monopolising public action. At the territorial level, local actors are marginalised and remain passive receptacles of centralised public policies. This governance model was supported and/or produced by the centrality of the economic resource, the oil rent. However, the crisis that the country has experienced since 2014, following the oil price drop, is leading the State to experiment with institutional programmes of so-called "innovative" forms of territorial governance, involving more local actors and based on the enhancement of territorial resources supposed to replace state intervention and central resources. At the same time, traditional forms of governance remain where the populations have always taken care of –jointly– the management of their collective needs, to make up for the State absent or inefficiency. Our contribution will study, between innovation and tradition, the articulations can be built in recomposing territories and in response to the state disengagement imposed by circumstances?
    Abstract: Longtemps en Algérie, l'État a été l'acteur principal monopolisant l'action publique. À l'échelle territoriale, les acteurs locaux sont mis à la marge et demeurent des réceptacles passifs des politiques publiques centralisées. Ce modèle de gouvernance a été soutenu et/ou produit par la centralité de la ressource économique, la rente pétrolière. Cependant, la crise que connaît le pays depuis 2014, suite à la chute des prix du pétrole, mène l'État à expérimenter dans le cadre de programmes institutionnels des formes dites « innovantes » de gouvernance territoriale, impliquant davantage les acteurs locaux et fondées sur la valorisation des ressources territoriales supposées se substituer à l'intervention de l'État et aux ressources centrales. Parallèlement, des formes traditionnelles de gouvernance subsistent où les populations prennent toujours elles-mêmes en charge – solidairement – la gestion de leurs besoins collectifs, pour pallier l'absence ou l'inefficacité de l'État. Notre contribution s'attachera à déterminer, entre innovation et tradition, les articulations qui peuvent être construites dans la recomposition des territoires en réponse au désengagement de l'État imposé par les circonstances ?
    Keywords: Territorial governance,Algeria,CAP-DEL,Recompositions,Traditional organisations,gouvernance territoriale,Algérie,Cap-Del,recompositions,organisations traditionnelles
    Date: 2020–11–18
  18. By: Khouiled, Brahim; Saheb, Oualid
    Abstract: In this paper, we presented concepts on the scissors effect between governance indicators and the fluctuations of net FDI inflows and we applied them to the MENA countries. We used PANEL data for 17 countries with triple averages over the period 1996-2017 to avoid missing some data. We found that the proposed dynamic model by Mijiyawa (2015) is appropriate for this study with the GMM system estimate. The results showed that the quality of the governance indicators was most significant and the effect of reducing the fluctuations of the FDI inflows in the long term, especially the indicator of the political and security situation prevailing in the region.
    Keywords: Governance, Fluctuations of FDI, MENA, Panel Data, GMM, حوكمة, تقلبات الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر, معطيات بانل, عزوم معممة
    JEL: E31 O49
    Date: 2019–10–02

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